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The Chagos deal – politicalbetting.com
The Chagos deal – politicalbetting.com
For every amount of indignation “surrendering our territory for no reason” that can be stoked, India has stoked quite the opposite feeling of anti colonial indignation at the previous status quo, now leading to their day of triumph, for It’s come to this win for India after a long campaign by them sponsoring the fight for this outcome.
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And international law has always been, as I've long said, 'more guidelines than actual rules'.
But Starmer and people like him put them on a pedestal as actual rules. Turning in their eyes otherwise meaningless, advisory rulings into actual law.
The French have the rule of law too, but they understand what international law actually is. They would have responded to a comparable ruling with a Gallic shrug and got on with their lives, they wouldn't have done this act of self-harm.
But if you are acting from the perspective that international law actually matters, then what Starmer has done is sensible. The problem is it doesn't. It was an advisory ruling only for a reason. We need a change of principles at the top to remove those who insist that international law is actually law.
'This was an advisory ruling, we disagree with the advice. We are not obliged to act on it. The UK respects the rule of law and will always enact its legal obligations.'
Then move on.
For me the issue with the deal isn't the negatives (giving away territory etc). It's the lack of positives. Moonrabbit gives it a good go (soft power in the region) but it all feels a bit weak.
I'd like to see the government be brave enough to come out and sell the deal, confidently. Perhaps it's the start of a drive to strengthen international rulings so that they can't so easily be ignored by others. Perhaps it's more detail on the strategic importance of the islands, and why it needs to be us not the USA. At the moment it just feels like a lot of government time and effort spent on a distraction (and I'm coming from a pretty friendly position on the international rule of law stuff).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c7804k13x52o
He is going to be out of friends shortly with stuff like this.
This report by the Justice Committee is utterly damning. Law and order is the most basic function of the state and it is failing. If the state can't or won't get this right, little chance of it getting anything else right.
https://x.com/commonsjustice/status/1925793948917809228?s=61&t=wWWeJB3W_ksMJK4LA1OvkA
Or you can read this damning analysis here - https://rozenberg.substack.com/p/ccrc-chief-must-go.
“Diplomats from Ireland, France, Germany and Turkey were also travelling with the delegation in the city of Jenin when the gunshots rang out on Wednesday.”
https://news.sky.com/story/uk-calls-for-investigation-after-idf-fired-warning-shots-as-british-diplomats-travelled-through-west-bank-13372358
One of the joys and frustrations of PB is there is always someone who knows more about a subject than you. I'm always astounded by the depth of my own ignorance in most things.
I've not seen or read this interpretation of what has happened. The dilemma is as a country which purports to respect international law, we can't pick and choose which judgements we support or oppose.
The Chagossians are the main losers here - once again, their destiny has been decided for them and they might justifiably see themselves as the pawns and playthings of Empires. We used to believe in self determination as well and we play that card when it suits us (just as everyone else does).
It turned out to be “one or two days every couple of months”. The CCRC had moved to working from home because it could not recruit staff locally, she explained.
“We were shocked by the CCRC leadership’s decision — quite out of line with the rest of the public sector, where hybrid working prevails — to turn the organisation fully remote,” the committee said.
I have zero interest in the deal - not ours, never were ours. I have to assume that we get value back from Gilead from loaning the base to them having paid to rent the place.
eg if any work happens on the base, Mauritian companies have to be given preference. And much more
It’s like a treaty signed by a totally vanquished nation in a 19th century war. And that is what we are under Starmer, a vanquished nation. We are defeated
Part of Starmer's achievement over the last few weeks has to be get a set of ok deals done (conceding on things that matters less to get things that matter more), rather than holding out for Something Better, which has been a recipe for stasis.
But if your view is that the UK is more powerful than that, it does look like treasonous weakness. The question is whether Starmer is weakening the UK's status or acknowledging realistically what that status is.
None of which stops the systematic rounding up of the bill to make a point right. There is a hefty chunk of Being In Opposition Derangement Syndrome here.
No report to the police, so no crime added to the stats.
That’s not as bad as it could have been. Cold enough for damage but hopefully not wipeout.
The blockade of aid is wrong and criticising that is legitimate, but taking the fight to Hamas until Hamas are eliminated is not wrong.
The "struggle" against imperialism is seen by those doing the struggling exactly in those terms.
Why and how do so many utterly incompetent people achieve positions of authority?
(I have my own views but I'd be interested to hear from others.)
The base only has value as a secure asset. If it's at the mercy of the next international court judgment, then it's less secure.
There were respectable reasons for doing the deal, whether or not you agree with them.
A better question is whether we overpaid, and if so, by how much.
Pleased to hear it wasn't a total disaster.
ETA: though a horrendous -1.9C at The Mount vineyard near Sevenoaks, who also publish their live data. So not just an East Kent event. That’s cold enough to destroy most of the crop.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8nk279ydyo
I still don’t understand the urgency of making this deal as the ruling was non-binding . Any future binding ruling and that’s a different matter but let’s be realistic .
Even with a binding ruling it’s not as if Mauritius and its huge army ! were going to move in and throw the Brits and Americans out .
There would have been time to make a deal if this base is so important to the national interest .
What Starmer has done is put Chagos as the latest “ you can afford that deal but can’t afford ……”.
As with most comms from this government they’ve crashed and burned again . No 10 needed to explain properly why now and trailed this well before signing the deal . Perhaps they could have argued if we wait , the price tag could have gone up .
And regarding the cost , it seems to be smoke and mirrors with what seems creative accounting on steroids !
And it's something that seems to persist whichever government is in power.
WRT would like to know your views on prisoners such as malkinson, who maintain their innocence, being ineligible for parole etc despite good behaviour. It would at least minimise the injustice.
Bargain.
The more I see of the Palestinians the less sympathy I have towards them.
Or at the very least charge them docking fees.
What’s not clear is just how the Foreign Office managed to ”negotiate” such a terrible deal. That Starmer was so willing to sign up to it without any pushback is also sticks in the craw. Will it affect the electorate (outside political obsessives & Telegraph readers that is) ? That’s impossible to know, but it seems to me that it does contribute to the same feeling about Starmer that people had about Corbyn: that he was not on the side the UK. That’s a dangerous thought to be encouraging for a politician who wants to win elections in the future.
I don't think India is involved
‘The chocolate ration has been cut by 20%, the public are pleased with the increase in chocolate’
Just need Farage to say “You can’t trust Labour on the NHS” now
EXCLUSIVE
📈 Major government claim on the NHS under scrutiny: the rate of increase of hospital appointments slowed, FOI data reveals
A @skynews @FullFact production with @DanielJDunford @michelle_inez @IslaGlaister
Watch:
https://x.com/samcoatessky/status/1925798682537984234?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Thanks but i wasnt looking for a bet, i was musing on what last nights by elections suggest the current position would/might be. Right now in a GE (thats happening right now) id take evens in Eastleigh. But right now there is no GE!
We should focus on not adding people to the waiting list rather than moving people off it.
Your slave-taking, conquering ancestors were brutal colonialists. My conquering slave-taking ancestors were inventors of civilisation.
China’s anger over the Century of Humiliation is because China should be kicking arse, not getting its arse kicked.
Retail sales in April jumped and came in well above forecasts .
The header doesn’t push the position: wanting to be seen as a fair and responsible power, rather than simply claiming land outright despite lack of international support, on basis this approach brings more leverage to our diplomacy, more influence, more friends, more security deals and more trade, is actually the right approach or not, but the header does conclude this is the chief reasoning behind it.
The header does also say, the voyage of learning more about this has thrown up considerations and complexities not at first apparent, and the header highlights three we should continue to probe and argue over.
Firstly, the role UKs regional security partner, and wannabe global not just regional superpower, India has played, manouvering UK to handing British sovereignty to Mauritius and adopting a lease.
Secondly, how far you can go down the road of legal filibuster, till you reach the point of real world damage from a vast majority in community not agreeing with you. Former Tory Defensive Minister Tobias Elwood seems completely on board with Starmer’s Chagos Surrender offering this reason alone.
https://youtu.be/WGb9cYUwTH4?si=nd_t23oXX9jjVW27&t=198
But there is a third, not at all officially acknowledged reason - whatever we feel about it in May 2025, however we wish for it to be different right now, there has definitely been consensus between Conservative and Labour government from the Sixties, to interlock UK defence and security in with the United States. I’m convinced this played a part in all UKs decisions and actions on Chagos, down more than half a century, including yesterday’s outcome. The part this has played is simple - we are not wholly free where we are in a marriage, with our defence and security in this world interwoven and dependant on this marriage.
Today there are about 10,000 Chagossians of whom 3,600 live in Crawley! Obviously very few of them are the original deportees. Those in the UK have been offered free citizenship.
I think there is a case for increasing the compensation to the survivors of the original 1,000 and to the estates of those who have died, of say £50,000 each. A goodly sum. It would cost £50 million and, I think, settle an injustice.
Given the background of short supplies for 18 months, how can it be that after 11 weeks anyone in Gaza is still alive unless there is more to the story than meets the eye? Can this make sense? And how?
1) identify the group Chagos Islanders, in terms of exactly who they are.
2) borrowing on the voting and other systems in the Baltics states, issue them with ID as Chagos Islanders. This will allow them to vote online. Given their dispersion around the world, this seems a practical solution.
3) using the voting, find actual leadership among the Chagos Islanders.
4) negotiating with the leadership of the Chagos Islanders, come up with a proposal.
5) hold a referendum of the Chagos islanders, online, on the deal.
6) if it passes, enact it. If it doesn’t see 3) or 4)
Further, surely this would give the answer, right away - “we are conducting negotiations with Chagos Islanders as to the settlement”?
Obviously, the above would make some people very unhappy. The large chunk of the UN that doesn’t agree with democratic self determination for sub-national groups, for example. But then again, my answer, after due consideration to such people is “Fuck Off”.
What if they (together with the ICJ) rule that Gibraltar should be given back to Spain or the Falklands to Argentina next?
A dangerous precedent has been set.
Reform did pretty well in Carshalton, Tories probably relieved to hold second despite fancying it!
I think youre right that Reforms best prospects next year are the likes of Bexley etc - the outer London councils sweeping NE to SE really. Also where they may pick up seats at a GE (Hornchurch, Romford most likely ftom Tories and i think Bexleyheath might go turquoise) . Tories will be targetting holding the NW first and foremost Hillingdon and Harrow where they will fancy gaining 2 or 3 GE seats next time (Hendon, Uxbridge, Chipping Barnet.....) and is where they seem stickiest (Harrow East was their only 50% plus seat last year) and they'll want to keep Chelsea blue. Labour will be undrr pressure everywhere but are totemic in a lot if London, the golden mass in the SW looks a solid bet to hold firm, be interesting to see if the LDs can eat into Croydon.
Good morning, everybody.
She speaks eloquently and firmly on immigration, I think she will be a star
We have for many years combined a culture of low expectations with delusions about our institutions being as good as we vaingloriously claim. And this is the inevitable result.
I wrote last year there was a pentagon of politics in London - basically, five different struggles.
Con-Lab (as you say, North and North West London)
Con-LD (South West London. I doubt the LDs will make much headway in Croydon but Merton might be different).
Con-Ref (the eastern and south eastern Boroughs)
Lab-Green (Inner London Boroughs)
Lab-Ind (Newham, Tower Hamlets and Redbridge).
There will be others as well but that's where I'd be starting.
On the basis of the 2025 locals, my initial thought would be big losses for Labour and the Conservatives, small gains for LD, Greens and Independents and big gains for Reform but as for numbers....
I think my own Borough, Newham, will be particularly interesting as we also have the Mayoral election.
Interestingly if Gibraltar voted to become independent the terms of Utrecht 1713 state if we give up sovereignty we have to offer it to Spain first.
1. Its their island
2. We're paying them to lease it, not for them to "take it off our hands"
3. We're getting the benevolent protection of Gilead for our money. Like various other bits of Britain / British territory its a US air base
As in the 2000s its possible that the wealthy will vote LibDem and the poor vote Labour.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8nk279ydyo
(Update: I see the story has been linked just now !)
Well, it is outrageous. But saying so is not.
Any party with such disdain for the concerns of the British people will never be able to control our border.
https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1925472709573554214?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Stop laughing at the back.
They *look* a bit more diverse, but their c- minds and their inability to learn accept responsibility are as uniform as a North Korean military parade.
Liverpool head coach Arne Slot says excuses are "for teams that don't win the league", and it is "nice" his side won the Premier League so he does not have to rely on them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cqxee7p5x48o
https://news.sky.com/story/labour-say-theres-been-a-massive-increase-in-nhs-appointments-this-begs-to-differ-13372714
When will Conservative MPs start to understand this very basic concept. What worked for them in 2010s is working for Reform and harikiri for the Conservative party now.
We couldn't manage without the NHS or a police force - but it would be perfectly possible to get rid of OFWAT overnight (with various options for either replacing it, managing its role directly in government, or simply nationalising the industry), or sack the entire management of the CCRC and rebuild it from scratch, without doing significant damage to their functions.
Tackling the Met or NHS management failings is a more complicated endeavour.
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2025/may/22/court-ruling-legal-definition-of-a-woman-misinterpreted-lady-hale
The 80-year-old, who is a member of the House of Lords, also questioned what was meant by “biological sex”.
“I was with some doctors last week who said there is no such thing as biological sex,” she said.
Amorim has said he will walk for nothing if they ask. So ask. Bring back Solksjaer from Turkey.
Tories almost getting caught by the LDs again with Techne - 30, 22, 17, 16, 9
In the Goode Olde Days, the CEOs for failed banks had the following options
1) blow their brains out with a pistol
2) flee the country in a small yacht and get murdered by whalers.
A project I worked on a few years ago was an eye-opener both in how much vicious infighting there was amongst the senior managers to the detriment of the project and on how protected HR identified "high fliers" were, touching down briefly in positions with low risk and then moved on swiftly before they could be held responsible for any mistakes.
The list of players not upto playing for United is extensive and certainly Rashford, Sancho, Anthony, Hoyland, Onana, Shaw, Eriksen, Casemiro, Zirtzee, Lindelof to name the obvious and why Amorin has to recruit new replacements by next season
I strongly urge United to stick with Amorim.
It is not particularly the players nor the manager but the whole club. Needs a big culture change and they are not ready to invest in that yet, still searching for the quick fixes instead.