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  • BobaFett said:

    If the Tories win Hampstead & Kilburn they will only do it as part of a big overall election triumph. Barring that it will be a fairly comfortable Labour hold - 2,000-3,000 majority.

    It could be an interesting night that one, depends on how much of a personal vote Glenda Jackson had.

    Sometimes I find myself being very impressed by the Lib Dem Candidate, who probably outside of Northern Ireland has one of the more interesting back story of any candidate standing, what with his being a former member of Hizb ut-Tahrir.

    Perhaps Dan Hodges could do a blog on the seat.
    Why my mum standing down spells disaster for Ed Miliband?
    I still maintain Dan's best ever blog entry was the one that featured his mother.

    Mum did to Maggie what she’d done to Kermit...

    .... “How humiliating for Dan Hodges,” someone else posted. Humiliating? Try walking into school the day after Women in Love has just been repeated on BBC Two. In my part of south London there was scant regard for the watershed.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100211777/mum-did-to-maggie-what-shed-done-to-kermit/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    edited March 2014

    [edited for space]

    We [the Scottish Tories] are fighting from a lamentably low base but I remember in 1992 the 11 seats we won in Scotland exactly amounted to John Major's 21 seat majority. Not in my wildest dreams do I think we will win 11 seats next year but each additional seat we do gain is one less we have to win in England. It might prove to be our parting present to our English colleagues to help deliver a Tory victory in 2015 at Westminster before we prepare to face the first Holyrood elections in an independent Scotland if the vote goes the way I fear it will in September.

    Very interesting and a considerable change from the impression that my own local party gave (at least until very recently). But: in all seriousness: you seem to be talking about a monolithic UK-wide Tory party. But equally you do realise that would be part of a party which may very well be campaigning in EWNI (well, England and Wales anyway), and that means about [edit to correct mental arithmetic] 96-98% of its likely seats, on being able to get the best deal against the successful separatists, or however they wish to call them, whatever is the sort of thing that would be said. How would a party acting self-professedly against Scottish interests play in Scotland, I wonder?

    This is not to suggest for a moment that the Tories (or their post-indy transmutation) won't do reasonably well as a minority party in independent Scotland - I would guess a bit better than their current performance in the Scottish parliament, if the parties remain much as they are without a radical shakeup. But that is for 2016 onwards.

    Would it be better to bite the bullet after a Yes vote and go completely separate for the 2015 UKGE, if indeed there is one? - or to go quiet and save the money and effort for 2016.


  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    The party in London has adopted the Scottish model

    Ouch. Are things really that bad?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    edited March 2014
    Before I go to bed.

    Betting post.

    Netherlands v England tomorrow at 10.30.

    I've backed Netherlands at 5/1.

    Stephan Myburgh vs Jade Dernbach, all sorts of records could be broken.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/cricket/icc-world-twenty-20/England-v-Netherlands-6747423.html
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    If the Tories win Hampstead & Kilburn they will only do it as part of a big overall election triumph. Barring that it will be a fairly comfortable Labour hold - 2,000-3,000 majority.

    It could be an interesting night that one, depends on how much of a personal vote Glenda Jackson had.

    Sometimes I find myself being very impressed by the Lib Dem Candidate, who probably outside of Northern Ireland has one of the more interesting back story of any candidate standing, what with his being a former member of Hizb ut-Tahrir.

    Perhaps Dan Hodges could do a blog on the seat.
    Why my mum standing down spells disaster for Ed Miliband?
    I still maintain Dan's best ever blog entry was the one that featured his mother.

    Mum did to Maggie what she’d done to Kermit...

    .... “How humiliating for Dan Hodges,” someone else posted. Humiliating? Try walking into school the day after Women in Love has just been repeated on BBC Two. In my part of south London there was scant regard for the watershed.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100211777/mum-did-to-maggie-what-shed-done-to-kermit/
    Fair play to him, I really enjoyed that article :)
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    BobaFett said:

    Eastbourne may be one gain. Big retired vote.

    I think your idea of Eastbourne is at least 20 years out of date. The time when it was widely regarded as God's waiting room are long past. The influx of Liverpudlians which started in the late 80s and the University of Brighton campus which opened in the 1990s and has grown ever since are just two of the reasons why the political nature of Eastbourne has changed. I doubt the Conservatives will ever get it back.
    Any idea why it was particularly attractive to Scousers??
    You'd need to ask them that, Mr. Fett. I could only speculate as to the why and perhaps that might not be useful.
  • Paddy Power ‏@paddypower 19s

    If the rumours of Tim Sherwood punching a player are true, that's terrible. It's not like they can defend themselves.

    Like a lot
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    edited March 2014

    Paddy Power ‏@paddypower 19s

    If the rumours of Tim Sherwood punching a player are true, that's terrible. It's not like they can defend themselves.

    Like a lot
    The mainstream media are picking up on it as well

    http://metro.co.uk/2014/03/30/footballers-reveal-best-dressing-room-fights-after-tim-sherwood-punch-rumour-4683570/
  • I'm hearing spurs are lining up jade dernbach as a player manager for us nezt
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Liverpool on top of the league 2 months, nearly 3 after their season was supposed to be officially over and United nowhere. If anyone doubted that the Ferguson era was over....

    We are in for a very long decade.
  • I'm hearing spurs are lining up jade dernbach as a player manager for us nezt

    That's great news for English cricket.
  • DavidL said:

    Liverpool on top of the league 2 months, nearly 3 after their season was supposed to be officially over and United nowhere. If anyone doubted that the Ferguson era was over....

    We are in for a very long decade.

    Liverpool fans mock Man United manager David Moyes with banner for Brendan Rodgers [Picture]

    http://www.101greatgoals.com/blog/liverpool-fans-mock-man-united-manager-david-moyes-with-banner-for-brendan-rodgers-picture/
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    Eastbourne may be one gain. Big retired vote.

    I think your idea of Eastbourne is at least 20 years out of date. The time when it was widely regarded as God's waiting room are long past. The influx of Liverpudlians which started in the late 80s and the University of Brighton campus which opened in the 1990s and has grown ever since are just two of the reasons why the political nature of Eastbourne has changed. I doubt the Conservatives will ever get it back.
    Any idea why it was particularly attractive to Scousers??
    You'd need to ask them that, Mr. Fett. I could only speculate as to the why and perhaps that might not be useful.
    Aw, please do...
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    Eastbourne may be one gain. Big retired vote.

    I think your idea of Eastbourne is at least 20 years out of date. The time when it was widely regarded as God's waiting room are long past. The influx of Liverpudlians which started in the late 80s and the University of Brighton campus which opened in the 1990s and has grown ever since are just two of the reasons why the political nature of Eastbourne has changed. I doubt the Conservatives will ever get it back.
    Any idea why it was particularly attractive to Scousers??
    You'd need to ask them that, Mr. Fett. I could only speculate as to the why and perhaps that might not be useful.
    Aw, please do...
    Nope, shan't
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Cloughie once laid out Roy Keane in the Forest dressing room.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,960
    edited March 2014
    BobaFett said:

    Cloughie once laid out Roy Keane in the Forest dressing room.

    Well Cloughie was special, he was the third greatest manager of all time, after Shanks and Paisley.

    Nottingham Forest, a club with more European Cups than Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs, Everton, Newcastle, Man City combined.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    Cloughie once laid out Roy Keane in the Forest dressing room.

    Well Cloughie was special, he was the third greatest manager of all time, after Shanks and Paisley.

    Nottingham Forest, a club with more European Cups than Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs, Everton, Newcastle, Man City combined.
    Indeed :)
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    Eastbourne may be one gain. Big retired vote.

    I think your idea of Eastbourne is at least 20 years out of date. The time when it was widely regarded as God's waiting room are long past. The influx of Liverpudlians which started in the late 80s and the University of Brighton campus which opened in the 1990s and has grown ever since are just two of the reasons why the political nature of Eastbourne has changed. I doubt the Conservatives will ever get it back.
    Any idea why it was particularly attractive to Scousers??
    You'd need to ask them that, Mr. Fett. I could only speculate as to the why and perhaps that might not be useful.
    Aw, please do...
    :) It has the bones of an excellent Labour strategy - importing Scousers into Tory target seats. Andy's list makes clear that there are many spare on Merseyside.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Carnyx said:

    [edited for space]

    We [the Scottish Tories] are fighting from a lamentably low base but I remember in 1992 the 11 seats we won in Scotland exactly amounted to John Major's 21 seat majority. Not in my wildest dreams do I think we will win 11 seats next year but each additional seat we do gain is one less we have to win in England. It might prove to be our parting present to our English colleagues to help deliver a Tory victory in 2015 at Westminster before we prepare to face the first Holyrood elections in an independent Scotland if the vote goes the way I fear it will in September.

    Very interesting and a considerable change from the impression that my own local party gave (at least until very recently). But: in all seriousness: you seem to be talking about a monolithic UK-wide Tory party. But equally you do realise that would be part of a party which may very well be campaigning in EWNI (well, England and Wales anyway), and that means about [edit to correct mental arithmetic] 96-98% of its likely seats, on being able to get the best deal against the successful separatists, or however they wish to call them, whatever is the sort of thing that would be said. How would a party acting self-professedly against Scottish interests play in Scotland, I wonder?

    This is not to suggest for a moment that the Tories (or their post-indy transmutation) won't do reasonably well as a minority party in independent Scotland - I would guess a bit better than their current performance in the Scottish parliament, if the parties remain much as they are without a radical shakeup. But that is for 2016 onwards.

    Would it be better to bite the bullet after a Yes vote and go completely separate for the 2015 UKGE, if indeed there is one? - or to go quiet and save the money and effort for 2016.


    They should have bit the bullet last year and not put another puppet of Westminster in charge. They will do nothing till they become a Scottish party.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    If the Tories win Hampstead & Kilburn they will only do it as part of a big overall election triumph. Barring that it will be a fairly comfortable Labour hold - 2,000-3,000 majority.

    I dunno, I feel like London could be the one region where the Tories could potentially make one or two gains from Labour, since Labour punched above their weight there in 2010 and because it's one of the few areas which has unquestionably experienced a recovery.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    IOS said:

    JohnO

    Your lack of political campaigning knowledge is comical. If the Tories were targeting those seats you would see it and they wouldn't be openly directing less resources to them.

    Stuffing badly photocopied "newsletters" through the letter boxes of people who don't want them, doesn't make you an expert in campaigning. As Cornwall so graphically demonstrates.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    Eastbourne may be one gain. Big retired vote.

    I think your idea of Eastbourne is at least 20 years out of date. The time when it was widely regarded as God's waiting room are long past. The influx of Liverpudlians which started in the late 80s and the University of Brighton campus which opened in the 1990s and has grown ever since are just two of the reasons why the political nature of Eastbourne has changed. I doubt the Conservatives will ever get it back.
    Any idea why it was particularly attractive to Scousers??
    You'd need to ask them that, Mr. Fett. I could only speculate as to the why and perhaps that might not be useful.
    Aw, please do...
    :) It has the bones of an excellent Labour strategy - importing Scousers into Tory target seats. Andy's list makes clear that there are many spare on Merseyside.
    Perhaps a better strategy would be to encourage the retired from the South East to move to the North. Old buggers like me would bring income and a need for services and at the same time make room for productive, wealth earning members of society.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited March 2014
    Do you think those scousers and students are going to be voting LD?I cannot see it myself, and I am in the party.

    If the LDs can claim credit for the pension changes, then they may pick up on some of the retired vote.

    The sum of the evening discussions is that it is hard to see how the Tories make a majority when looking at individual seats.

    Eastbourne may be one gain. Big retired vote.

    I think your idea of Eastbourne is at least 20 years out of date. The time when it was widely regarded as God's waiting room are long past. The influx of Liverpudlians which started in the late 80s and the University of Brighton campus which opened in the 1990s and has grown ever since are just two of the reasons why the political nature of Eastbourne has changed. I doubt the Conservatives will ever get it back.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Saddened.

    I didn't say anything about cornwall other than quote a Lib Dem who said the Tories were doing no campaigning. Neil is sadly choosing to lie to amuse himself.

    And the fact that you think campaigning is about delivering newsletters you clearly are a arm chair general with no direct experience.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited March 2014
    "Do you think those scousers and students are going to be voting LD?

    I cannot see it myself."

    Then bet on your idea of what Eastbourne is like, Doc. You will lose your money if you think that the Conservatives will take the place back. It ain't God's waiting room any more.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    IOS said:

    Neil is sadly choosing to lie to amuse himself.

    Where have I lied, IOS?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Neil

    What exactly did I say RE cornwall Neil. I never talked about Labour prospects.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Ah, not prepared to back up the accusation I see.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Danny565 said:



    I dunno, I feel like London could be the one region where the Tories could potentially make one or two gains from Labour, since Labour punched above their weight there in 2010 and because it's one of the few areas which has unquestionably experienced a recovery.

    Doesn't feel like that - the LibDem transfer to Labour seems very marked in London as it's a more politicised place - but I may be too close to it. We'll know more in May since the London boroughs are voting then.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I have consistently predicted that we will have a Milliband government next year, probably with a small working majority, and cannot see a reason to change that view from tonights discussions.

    I already have one fairly foolish bet with you outstanding (I was a rather frothy after Leicester City's performance against Burnley, and a little refreshed), I do not want to have to pay for an entire lifeboat! Though a curious fact is that per capita Leicestershire is one of the largest supporters of the RNLI.

    "Do you think those scousers and students are going to be voting LD?

    I cannot see it myself."

    Then bet on your idea of what Eastbourne is like, Doc. You will lose your money if you think that the Conservatives will take the place back. It ain't God's waiting room any more.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Neil

    You have on numerous occasions said that I predicted Labour victories in cornwwall when I did no such thing. By popping up on this thread and referencing Cornwall in such a context you are clearly continuing that assertion.

    Again I ask you - what did I say exactly about Cornwall?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    IOS said:

    Neil

    You have on numerous occasions said that I predicted Labour victories in cornwwall when I did no such thing. By popping up on this thread and referencing Cornwall in such a context you are clearly continuing that assertion.

    Again I ask you - what did I say exactly about Cornwall?

    You said that the Tories/Lib Dems/UKIP/* add any party you wish to mention ... would lose /could not win because they could not match Labour's ground game.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    IOS said:

    Neil

    You have on numerous occasions said that I predicted Labour victories in cornwwall when I did no such thing. By popping up on this thread and referencing Cornwall in such a context you are clearly continuing that assertion.

    Again I ask you - what did I say exactly about Cornwall?

    You said that the Tories/Lib Dems/UKIP/* add any party you wish to mention ... would lose /could not win because they could not match Labour's ground game.
    That wasnt what he said.

    IOS - if you're going to post ridiculous things on pbc (presumably after some refreshment given the timing) then be prepared to have the p*ss taken.

    If you want to back up your lying claim then feel free but you wont be able to. As there is nothing more boring than he said / she said posts that's the last I have to say about it or to you.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    SquareRoot

    Nope. And that's the lie that Neil has helped propagate. What's more he said knows I said nothing of the sort. I linked a Lib Dem activists article that said that Labour were doing more campaigning than the Tories.

    Now, I do believe, that the ground game in the marginals is the most important electoral factor and that Labour has the best ground game here by a long way. But that has nothing to do with Cornwall and what I posted.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Neil.

    Was what I posted tonight ridiculous? And what relevance did it have to an article linked over a year ago?

    What another party thinks their main opposition is doing - or rather not - is useful betting information. But again you choose to over look this fact because you enjoy scoring cheap points.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Neil said:

    IOS said:

    Neil

    You have on numerous occasions said that I predicted Labour victories in cornwwall when I did no such thing. By popping up on this thread and referencing Cornwall in such a context you are clearly continuing that assertion.

    Again I ask you - what did I say exactly about Cornwall?

    You said that the Tories/Lib Dems/UKIP/* add any party you wish to mention ... would lose /could not win because they could not match Labour's ground game.
    That wasnt what he said.

    IOS - if you're going to post ridiculous things on pbc (presumably after some refreshment given the timing) then be prepared to have the p*ss taken.

    If you want to back up your lying claim then feel free but you wont be able to. As there is nothing more boring than he said / she said posts that's the last I have to say about it or to you.

    It was in jest, its what IOS always says ....
  • Talking of Con targets, I have been wondering whether one of their best chances of winning a seat off Labour might be in Wales with all the negative press the Welsh Assembly has been getting lately. Delyn and Vale of Clwyd both have lowish LD votes and could be worth targeting.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Neil

    Helen Hayes won Dulwich yesterday. Assembly Members missing out selection trend continues. 4 in this Parliament so far
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Andrea

    I suspected she might be well placed after I read that Chuka was supporting her.

    What now for Dora?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Interesting thought. What are the details of the constituencies, any particular local scandals/issues that may influence voting?

    Talking of Con targets, I have been wondering whether one of their best chances of winning a seat off Labour might be in Wales with all the negative press the Welsh Assembly has been getting lately. Delyn and Vale of Clwyd both have lowish LD votes and could be worth targeting.

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @foxinsoxuk

    'Eastbourne may be one gain. Big retired vote. '

    Agree virtually no Labour vote left to squeeze,5,268 in 2005 reduced to 2,497 in 2010.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    On Scotland, have to dispute the idea negative campaigning does not work in referendums, NO to AV was relentlessly negative and won resoundingly
    Also, looks like Hidalgo has won Paris, giving PS a crumb of comfort as Boris gave the Tories in 2012
  • Interesting thought. What are the details of the constituencies, any particular local scandals/issues that may influence voting?

    Talking of Con targets, I have been wondering whether one of their best chances of winning a seat off Labour might be in Wales with all the negative press the Welsh Assembly has been getting lately. Delyn and Vale of Clwyd both have lowish LD votes and could be worth targeting.

    Interesting thought. What are the details of the constituencies, any particular local scandals/issues that may influence voting?

    Talking of Con targets, I have been wondering whether one of their best chances of winning a seat off Labour might be in Wales with all the negative press the Welsh Assembly has been getting lately. Delyn and Vale of Clwyd both have lowish LD votes and could be worth targeting.

    It is more a case of the problems of Wales overall. The Tory vote held up quite well in the last assembly election (Lab bounced back to an extent at the expense of the LDs and Plaid). Bridgend and Gower are slightly better numerically for the Tories but see those as less likely (Bridgend is the assembly seat of Carwyn Jones while Gower has one of the longest records of electing Lab MPs). UKIP may also have a chance to do well in NE Wales. It really depends if voters blame the underperformance of Wales more on the assembly or the national goverment
This discussion has been closed.