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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the fifth month in succession the projected LAB majority from Electoral Calculus sees a decline
Martin Baxter, the City mathematician who has been running Electoral Calculus for nearly two decades, has put out his latest monthly projection and once again there is a decline in the projected LAB majority.
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F1: Malaysian post-race analysis is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/malaysia-post-race-analysis.html
A fairly small profit margin, but I was two from two on the betting front, so I can't complain.
Bahrain, I think will be good for Mercedes, Williams and Force India, and (relatively) bad for Red Bull. Could be wrong, though. That assumption is based on the many straights and the difficulty teams should have (noted during testing) with fuel in Bahrain.
It'll also (presumably) have the first dry qualifying of the season. If Williams can do better there, they stand an off-chance of a podium. Assuming the drivers don't hit each other.
On-topic: it'd be interesting if the Lib Dems polled so low, but it'd surprise me.
In a static world, I would agree, in a real and dynamic world new polling bias will infiltrate the system.
But at least trying to catch up with the better predictors, like L&N, swingback, etc..
Bayrou gains Pau
UMP should gain Reims et Quimper.
FN takes Bezier easily. Socialists pulls ahead in Avignon
O/T - glorious day here in south wilts - garden a little tidier than when I started..!
At least UKIP had the nous to support AV, unlike the Tories.
Goodness me, you are on the attack aren't you? I was merely observing that AV would have helped UKIP and they had the wit to support it. It would also have helped the Tories, but they didn't support it.
Why do you suppose that means I would have been happy to impose it? Unpleasantly aggressive aren't you?
But I have no wish to reopen past threads on AV. Who would want to live through them again?
Unparalleled in the history of the universe and never knowingly undersold the nation awaits my ARSE like no other.
Beware of pale imitations.
It's amazing though that any projections still think their is a chance of a Tory majority. You cannot expect to win seats in which you don't campaign. The Tories rightly understand going for a majority would be a waste of resources. Hence why their resources are going into saving seats.
It's the hope that kills you....
Scored 2 Conceded 27
Say no more, say no more.
If he's right then there's a great deal of money to be won in the betting markets.
What makes it particularly impressive is that, in typical elections (and not only in the UK), the lead a year out is a poor predictor of the lead on polling day. Swings of 5% to 10%, or even more, are common. Of the last five UK general elections, only in one case - 2005 - was the polling a year ahead close to the result on the day.
Here's another reason you should appreciate Tim Sherwood
Ruud Gullit has revealed that Tim Sherwood turned down the chance to sign Luis Suarez when the striker was at Ajax.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2591872/Tim-Sherwood-blew-chance-bringing-Luis-Suarez-Spurs-reveals-Ruud-Gullit.html
Cameron seemed to have got a significant boost from them, taking the Tories further away (beneficially) from the swingback forecast. Maybe the Tories owed an additional 15-20 seats, including Nick Palmer's, to the debates.
I think the same will happen again, to an even greater degree. Cameron (and Clegg) will eat Miliband alive...
So, while the swingback model may move a little more in the Tories' favour before the election (assuming there are more byelections to come), it has lost quite a bit of its previous utility and accuracy, I suspect.
TNS projection for Avignon
PS-EELV-FDG Helle 46,5%; FN Lottiaux 35,3%; UMP Chaussegros 18,2%
Estimation BEZIERS : FN Ménard 47,2% ; UMP Aboud 34,7% ; DVG Du Plaa 18,1%
Estimation REIMS : UMP-UDI-MoDem Robinet 46,5% ; PS-PC-PRG-EELV Hazan 42,3% ; FN Paris 11,2%
Estimation FREJUS : FN Rachline 44,4%; UMP-UDI Mougin 30,6% ; DVD Brun 25%
Again all these projections dont take into account the Tories aren't even trying for a majority. Cameron isn't stupid enough to expect to gain seats off Labour.
The Tory campaign strategy is all aimed at being the largest party.
Average of the last 20 polls:
Lab 37.1%
Con 33.7%
UKIP 12.0%
LD 9.5%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Poll_results
Your lack of political campaigning knowledge is comical. If the Tories were targeting those seats you would see it and they wouldn't be openly directing less resources to them.
What seat marks the borderline between Tories most seats and Labour most seats? I'm guessing it's something like Stroud or Hove? http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
I fear you are still thinking elections are still like 1979. They're not.
Elections now require significant amounts of work on the ground targeting swing voters. You can't just win it on a swing anymore.
Looks like the right has won Reims and Angers so far, the FN has won Frejus and Beziers, Bayrou Pau and the left is holding on in Avingon. Any news from Paris?
More coverage here
http://videos.tf1.fr/infos/2014/second-tour-des-municipales-les-premieres-estimations-ville-8391904.html
20:35 - Reports of trouble in the town of Frejus, which was won by the National Front on Sunday. Youths hostile to the far right party have been in minor clashes with police. We'll keep you posted.
http://www.thelocal.fr/20140330/live-french-elections-local-france
That would mean Spurs v Liverpool this season = 0-9 and -2 managers post the result...
Nice pattern...
Look at the marginal polls. The Tories are not targeting the seats they need to win a majority. They are not going to waste resources trying to win seats they cannot. They will use all their resources to try and hold the ones they have.
PS projected to hold Strasbourg and Metz
Martine Aubry reelected in Lille
Greens take Grenoble from PS
PS projected to have won Paris with 54.5%
Rod And did all of those protestors bother to vote today?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9601673/Tories-plan-outright-majority-with-new-40-40-campaign.html
So the first question is: What will be the Lab or Con national lead on polling day 2015?
Not sure I know the answer yet...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEk1TlVqMHhNUXFBWlhSNU1hd0FYSHc#gid=0
have a look at the seats The Tories need to win a John O majority. Say a majority of 40.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/live-femen-shows-up-in-turkish-pm-erdogans-constituency-on-election-day.aspx?pageID=238&nID=64283&NewsCatID=338
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/election2014/election.html
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE#gid=0
Concerned that the George Washington Bridge traffic scandal has damaged New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s political standing and alarmed by the steady rise of Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.), prominent donors, conservative leaders and longtime operatives say they consider Bush the GOP’s brightest hope to win back the White House.
Which seats are the Tories goig to gain to win a majority?
Do you think the probability of them changing hands would be the same for say a Labour national lead of 2% versus a Tory lead of 5%?
The national swing will be the prime determinant. We need to get a handle on that first, to have a reasonable chance of predicting/guessing individual seats.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dE0wZTMyZW1nYko1TE15MDVJVF8zYXc#gid=0
Eastbourne borough:
LD: 8,428
Con: 6,991
UKIP: 6,431
Lab: 2,380
Green: 366
Others: 48
Wasn't implying that Andy had said that. Just asking for an answer. The point is is that the Tories aren't wasting their resources trying to win Exeter and Wakefield.
Only a numpty who doesn't understand how modern campaigning works expects a Tory majority. The best the Tories can hope for is largest party. They know this and that's what they are campaigning for.
Sometimes I find myself being very impressed by the Lib Dem Candidate, who probably outside of Northern Ireland has one of the more interesting back story of any candidate standing, what with his being a former member of Hizb ut-Tahrir.
Perhaps Dan Hodges could do a blog on the seat.
You can get astronomical odds on some of the seats just over the kind into COM country so presumably the Tory majority boosters will be putting the house and garden shed on with Shadsy?
In no way do I seek to denigrate the work done over decades by loyal party members but generally younger people are simply not "joiners". They don't join round table, rotary or many of the other types of organisations which were popular.
In Scotland the party has built up a group of several thousand supporters who assist when they can and wish to. Hence at the last 14 council or parliamentary by-elections the Tory vote has risen, albeit in many cases from a low base. A recent appeal brought in over £250,000 from these supporters. It is a bit like the Obama model of large numbers of small amounts and lots of people giving short periods of assistance.
I keep in regular contact with the leading figures in CFS in Scotland and their growing numbers and enthusiasm is very encouraging. The membership in the university associations is once more growing and we have seen "hit squads" going to leaflet in no hope seats like the Kilmarnock ward the SNP defended last week and in which the Tory vote rose by 5%.
Stuart Dickson has quite rightly said there are signs on the ground of growing support in Scotland for the Tory party. For me what will be interesting is how much of the 2010 LibDem vote comes to the Tory party next year, given that almost all their seats were Tory held until 1987/1997.
We are fighting from a lamentably low base but I remember in 1992 the 11 seats we won in Scotland exactly amounted to John Major's 21 seat majority. Not in my wildest dreams do I think we will win 11 seats next year but each additional seat we do gain is one less we have to win in England. It might prove to be our parting present to our English colleagues to help deliver a Tory victory in 2015 at Westminster before we prepare to face the first Holyrood elections in an independent Scotland if the vote goes the way I fear it will in September.
If the rumours of Tim Sherwood punching a player are true, that's terrible. It's not like they can defend themselves.