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The Tories are a rounding error from being fourth and behind the Lib Dems with YouGov
The Tories are a rounding error from being fourth and behind the Lib Dems with YouGovn– politicalbetting.com
Reform UK record their highest ever poll rating in YouGov's latest Westminster voting intention, while the Tories and Labour are at their lowest since 2019Ref: 29% (+3 from 27-28 Apr)Lab: 22% (-1)Con: 17% (-3)Lib Dem: 16% (+1)Green: 10% (+1)SNP: 3% (=)yougov.co.uk/topics/polit…
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpU26qBcBuw&t=480s
Ex MP Jill Mortimer has just posted this in the 2019-2024 Conservative MPs WhatsApp chat about Kemi in relation to the announcement of the Deportation Bill:
“She’s spent 6 months thinking of something to say then comes up with this after we’ve had a pasting - she is so out of her depth”
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/VotingIntention_MRP_250506_w.pdf
When the two parties were at similar polling levels, that worked to the advantage of LLG, because tactical voting is so much more common on the centre-left. With the Reform potentially pushing into the 30s, that starts to change.
What's also fascinating is that these poll moves are clearly much worse for Labour than for the LibDems. Simply: Conservatives moving to Reform generally benefits the LibDems (in how many LibDem seats are Reform the challenger?), but is clearly a major issue for Labour - especially as Reform is so much better at appealing to (historic) Labour supporters.
Look at the response to the Indian NIC furore. Badenoch can’t even mention it at PMQs because Starmer will - correctly - note that the Tories planned all this and of course the Tories gave us the Boriswave, who are they to talk about migration
The Tories are completely crippled on the issue of the day. Meanwhile Farage is on every tv show with a completely free line of fire at Labour and he can say “This is exactly what I predicted, Two Tier Kier and his Two Tier Taxes, British jobs for Indian workers….”
And so on. The dynamic is very bad for Labour and appalling for the Tories. I don’t know what will shift it
Sad news to report.
I have been following a youtube channel over the last few months by a British pakistani lady who has been talking about some of the issues within her community - generally things like religion, tolerance etc. However she has now posted a tearful video after being threatened and taken down her channel. When people ask why more British pakistanis do not speak out this is probably a good explanation. All very sad and fits a pattern. Salman Rushdie living in the US (but coming to Hay this month). Children expected to apologise for damaging a religious book, people in hiding, antisemitism rife. Many other things.
Lots of people worry about the far right. But has anyone considered, if the far right are so dangerous why is no-one afraid to criticise them? Tomorrow we will honour the sacrifice of our parents' and grandparents' generation to preserve this country's freedom and heritage. Yet we are completely passive over a thuggery that has been allowed to run amok. I've tried to educate this site till I am blue in the face but it's clear now that many of you are fake liberals more concerned with your stock portfolio than the maintenance of free expression.
This poll was initiated solely by Find Out Now and not funded by any third party
Also follows my developing theory that council by-elections are a little less protesty than the main May round (because they don't reverberate noticeably on government), which is, of course, the opposite way round to parliamentary elections.
Labour are doing stuff many people hate.
The Conservatives can't stop Labour doing stuff many people hate - they don't have the seats.
The logical way to stop Labour doing stuff many people hate is to have a bloc of votes that demonstrate they will be out on their ear at the next election - unless they stop doing stuff many people hate. So far, no evidence that Labour is stopping doing the stuff people hate. So the Reform bloc gets bigger - until Labour actually stop doing stuff many people hate.
The rise of Reform is not so much an anti-Tory vote, as a pro-Reform vote to kick Labour as the governing party.
Whether that survives until 2028/9 is kinda up to Labour.
The Tories faffed about for eight years but never delivered a trade deal with India — my Labour government got it done in 10 months.
GE29* Most Seats, REF 2.62, LAB 2.64
* 3rd May
Falling motivation to vote is as big a problem for Labour as leakage to LDs and Greens. A fair bit of the Reform vote comes from this block too.
GOTV is critical. Reform do seem to be able to do it with little in the way of local campaigning , such as the invisible man elected in North Lake on the IoW last week.
I've just been commissioned to go and see if it is nice. Is it?
Farage is making Harold Wilson's mistake. When he comes on telly I just go ugh! and I doubt I am alone. And yet I support what he claims are his ends even if I think his means are hare-brained.
One of the first commentators I ever read / heard maybe 50 years ago said something very challenging and interesting re the resignation of Harold Wilson and Farage would do well to heed his words.
He said Wilson barely won the 64 election by barely being on TV. He won the landslide in 66 by being on the TV all the time. He lost the 70 election by being on the TV all the time and he just and so won Feb 74 by keeping off the TV as much as he could, and likewise Oct 74.
We are seeing too much of Farage and not enough of his "colleagues".
Had some very nice piglet chops there, soft as butter.
True story, was in a Chinese with a Colleague from Helsinki and the manageress came over and said in faltering English “you finnish?” and my chap, with a look of great surprise said “yes I am, how did you know”. How we laughed.
It's like one of the rather less interesting parts of Switzerland. It's expensive, and boring, and pleasant, and safe, and clean.
I wouldn't want to spend more than 48 hours there. On the other hand, if the sun is shining, you will - I'm sure - have a perfectly pleasant time.
New - Indian officials say Badenoch talking "rubbish" over "two tier tax" attack on UK/India FTA. Say she agreed principle of exempting Indian workers from NICs when she was trade sec. Team Badenoch: "The Indians put it on the table and Kemi said No."
https://x.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1920127480943223074
Both need to be fought and resisted.
If you aren't trying to protect speech you don't agree with, then you clearly don't really believe in free speech. You just believe in your speech being free.
Sounds pretty similar to me.
Some of the Flemish towns were interesting, the roads less so, but south of the Meuse in Belgium and Luxemboug was lovely biking country with uncrowded good quality roads, rolling countryside, interesting small towns and shady camping. In Luxembourg we camped in a lovely town in the north called Wilz, but Luxembourg city itself was a bit dull.
At that time it wasn't unusual to see wrecked tanks left behind from the Battle of the Bulge in farmers fields. I don't know why the Ardennes was considered such an obstacle in 1940, it was hardly impenetrable jungle.
I heard that the countryside is really rather nice
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/07/heinz-renames-tartare-dip-fish-and-chips-sauce/
And gave the Nazis forty whacks
When she saw what she had done
She gave the Fascists forty one
And I can probably wangle a five star hotel and Michelin meals. There are worse jobs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKD2j_L57XE
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yr282v2x2o
I think there is a possibility that the Tories will return. Right now, that seems less likely than RefUK or Lab coming top, but it's far from being unbelievable. I could see that having a 20% chance.
Another possibility is that Reform UK splits or collapses or merges with someone else, so that a party with Farage as leader wins the most seats, but it's not Reform UK. I could see that having a 4% chance.
Lux has very cheap fuel, and very large filling stations, to cater for the zillions of people living within short driving distance and zillions more passing through, who all go fill up there.
EDIT: And the original video is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8piwfzbM5WA
Harassing people online ocurrs right across the spectrum of political belief.
You used to have put them in a card reader and push the contraption across. I think it took the lady's more feminine movements to work it for him eventually.
I, of course, being happily married didn't avail myself. It might have changed since then.
I used to get coded invites to meeting and they wouldn’t take any paperwork from meetings but some did used to ask for bags of cash to be prepared which they would drive home.
Every so often the Belgians would offer an amnesty on Lux money but hiding it there had become a habit and tradition.
You get to spend a lot of money. I don't think there is anything hugely unique there - elements of nearby Belgium, Germany and France ! I recall a dramatic entry through a tunnel to a traditional pattern village around a castle on a river bend as found in Belgium, then a little beyond the most enormous dam.
Good for cycle touring, but that's perhaps not you.
You clearly aren't afraid to address this on this board, despite living in the UK.
Where there clearly are issues are: (1) the violent response to things like the Charlie Hebdo cartoons, and (2) in the Muslim community itself, where people are afraid to speak out, because of the consequences on their position in the community.
Even the briefest stroll through X or YouTube comments runs very quickly into a sewer of invective. If you can't see that then you are part of the problem.
Your choice of words is fine if you want an argument, but rubbish if you want to change peoples minds or build a consensus.