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The current bind the Republicans find themselves in – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,772
    edited 5:54AM

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    I've just read that Gatwick airport management are putting up the drop off charge to 7quid from 2 May. There is no possible justification apart from some bullshit about the eco footprint bollocks so often spoken about.
    If Gatwick was worried about it's eco footprintbolocks they'd reduce the no of flights not try for a second runway.
    The whole business is shambolic and designed to fleece the traveller.

    You get 2 hrs pick up and drop off at the long stay foc and the airport buses are every few minutes and only take a few minutes so it is a bit of an unnecessary luxury to be delivered or picked up directly from the terminal to be honest.
    I would have put the charge up even further. People complaining about this probably have a bad case of CarBrain, they can't comprehend doing anything but using a car to drive right to the door of the place they need to be.
    I normally get the train to Gatwick, unless I have a particularly early flight - and I tend not to book those. Partly because I can't get there, partly because getting up in the middle of the night starts a trip on a bum note
    The couple of times I’ve had an early flight from Gatwick it’s been travel down the night before and the premier inn by the airport isn’t that expensive in the scheme of things
    I shall be getting a neighbour to drop me at the petrol station and walk the 100 yds or so to the escalator. SCREW Gatwick who are putting up the charge to make them look green. It's Ed Milibandism and they can get stuffed.
    That seems to be achieving it's objective then - depending perhaps on your previous arrangements?

    It's amazing how a small nudge / Pigou Tax can change behaviour :smile: .

    Moar !! Moar !!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,585
    edited 5:56AM

    I’ve just seen the figures showing a huge problem with UK illegal immigration. Yes, the UK is the 4th highest country of origin for illegal immigrants overstaying their visa in Australia: https://www.migrationsolutions.com.au/australias-over-stayers/

    ...as of June 30, 2014...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,407

    I’ve just seen the figures showing a huge problem with UK illegal immigration. Yes, the UK is the 4th highest country of origin for illegal immigrants overstaying their visa in Australia: https://www.migrationsolutions.com.au/australias-over-stayers/

    They're not getting there on a small boat, so it's not a problem.

    (In a political sense, I'm dead serious. Getting a visa, forgetting to leave, then fading into the background is obviously a nicer way into a country so it should be more common than crossing the Channel on an inflatable. But if you can't count it or point at it, how do you whip up a fuss?)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,915

    I’ve just seen the figures showing a huge problem with UK illegal immigration. Yes, the UK is the 4th highest country of origin for illegal immigrants overstaying their visa in Australia: https://www.migrationsolutions.com.au/australias-over-stayers/

    ...as of June 30, 2014...
    Well that ruins my line about fleeing Starmer's lawless failed state.
  • vikvik Posts: 287

    vik said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @atrupar.com‬

    State Dept spox Tammy Bruce says she doesn't have the details of the new minerals deal with Ukraine, but in the next breath claims "it is of course -- and it's not a surprise, because it's President Donald Trump -- it is the perfect deal."

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lo2rudep722i

    Being able to bully a weaker nation in a desperate situation should result in a good 'deal' for the United States as a bare minimum I would say.
    I don’t see it like that.

    I think it’s Ukraine who wanted it signed, and the Trump Administration truly unwise to sign it.

    The same deal was offered to Biden’s administration, and they said no.

    There’s so many experts on web who argued US shouldn’t sign this, as it was bad commercially, scientifically, and bad politically to be tied into this.

    Believing Trump has made a huge mistake, and this is a win for Ukraine, I’m just dumbfounded.
    I tend to agree with you: it's unlikely the US will never make a penny out of this, because the chances of there being commercially exploitable rare earths is so small.

    That said, the question is very much does Ukraine get anything?

    At the very least, I hope this means the US continued to support Ukraine.
    We have discussed it often enough on PB - I have gone from knowing zilch about these things to knowing mining is just one cost and time consuming activity, some rare earths need processing that is energy consuming and expensive, all this factored in before you start making any profit at all. And much Ukrainian rare earths are guesswork from ancient soviet surveys - so the key difference in the industry of not being sure what’s there and actually knowing what’s there. And as you said yourself, Robert, first thing about rare earths they are not all that rare, so why the USA choosing rare earths below argued over land in what’s currently a hot war without any end?

    Biden asked around if any companies fancied the Ukraine proposal, and none did. Biden laughed the Ukraine proposal off with a gentle, nice try, pat on Ukraine governments upper arm. Trump has signed it. It just seems very odd Trump thinks this is a great deal for US to get itself into. An Administration that believes its own wild propaganda? Is this the evidence to suspect there’s no clever “art of the deal” games here, what they say is actually what they believe?
    I think reality doesn't matter to Trump: all he cares about is how is perceived, and that he is seen to have come out on top.

    Ukraine signed *his* minerals deal. And therefore, Trump (and to a lesser extent the US) has won.

    What happens next is irrelevant; he gets to declare victory.
    A deal that puts American mining companies on the ground will be as good as a minefield at stopping Russian tanks.
    No, it will not.

    The presence of private foreign companies has zero deterrent impact.

    The only thing that deters an invasion is the presence of foreign soldiers, because shooting at those soldiers is an act of war.

    Shooting at the property of foreigners isn't an act of war.
    If there is a spread bet on the number of American miners killed by Russia, I'd sell. You?
    American miners won't be operating the mines, just like American fast food workers aren't making burgers in Ukrainian branches of McDonalds.

    If there are any American supervisors or executives at the mines, then they will be asked by their companies to leave Ukraine once tensions start ratcheting up again.

    If there are any Americans still left in Ukraine, once the invasion starts, then Putin will take them into custody, give them coffee & sandwiches and put them on a plane to the USA. If he wants to play hardball then he might even hold them as hostages for a future prisoner transfer.

    Remember that Putin keeps taking Americans who are in Russia, into custody to hold as hostages. This hasn't triggered a war with the USA.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,554

    I’ve just seen the figures showing a huge problem with UK illegal immigration. Yes, the UK is the 4th highest country of origin for illegal immigrants overstaying their visa in Australia: https://www.migrationsolutions.com.au/australias-over-stayers/

    ...as of June 30, 2014...
    @bondegezou is surely right that visa overstayers (or people who came not needed a visa and never left) make up a much larger proportion of illegals in the Uk than boat crossers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,554

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    I've just read that Gatwick airport management are putting up the drop off charge to 7quid from 2 May. There is no possible justification apart from some bullshit about the eco footprint bollocks so often spoken about.
    If Gatwick was worried about it's eco footprintbolocks they'd reduce the no of flights not try for a second runway.
    The whole business is shambolic and designed to fleece the traveller.

    You get 2 hrs pick up and drop off at the long stay foc and the airport buses are every few minutes and only take a few minutes so it is a bit of an unnecessary luxury to be delivered or picked up directly from the terminal to be honest.
    I would have put the charge up even further. People complaining about this probably have a bad case of CarBrain, they can't comprehend doing anything but using a car to drive right to the door of the place they need to be.
    I normally get the train to Gatwick, unless I have a particularly early flight - and I tend not to book those. Partly because I can't get there, partly because getting up in the middle of the night starts a trip on a bum note
    The couple of times I’ve had an early flight from Gatwick it’s been travel down the night before and the premier inn by the airport isn’t that expensive in the scheme of things
    I shall be getting a neighbour to drop me at the petrol station and walk the 100 yds or so to the escalator. SCREW Gatwick who are putting up the charge to make them look green. It's Ed Milibandism and they can get stuffed.
    With all due respect, they are simply invoking the name of Milliband to justify raising prices.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,831

    I’ve just seen the figures showing a huge problem with UK illegal immigration. Yes, the UK is the 4th highest country of origin for illegal immigrants overstaying their visa in Australia: https://www.migrationsolutions.com.au/australias-over-stayers/

    ...as of June 30, 2014...
    You think the problem is worse now? You’re probably right.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,585
    edited 6:05AM
    rcs1000 said:

    I’ve just seen the figures showing a huge problem with UK illegal immigration. Yes, the UK is the 4th highest country of origin for illegal immigrants overstaying their visa in Australia: https://www.migrationsolutions.com.au/australias-over-stayers/

    ...as of June 30, 2014...
    @bondegezou is surely right that visa overstayers (or people who came not needed a visa and never left) make up a much larger proportion of illegals in the Uk than boat crossers.
    I have no doubt this is true. The whole system is broken.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,379

    rcs1000 said:

    I’ve just seen the figures showing a huge problem with UK illegal immigration. Yes, the UK is the 4th highest country of origin for illegal immigrants overstaying their visa in Australia: https://www.migrationsolutions.com.au/australias-over-stayers/

    ...as of June 30, 2014...
    @bondegezou is surely right that visa overstayers (or people who came not needed a visa and never left) make up a much larger proportion of illegals in the Uk than boat crossers.
    I have no doubt this is true. The whole system is broken.
    Also pointless to enforce as they'd not actually be able to deport anyone.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,367
    edited 6:09AM
    rcs1000 said:

    I’ve just seen the figures showing a huge problem with UK illegal immigration. Yes, the UK is the 4th highest country of origin for illegal immigrants overstaying their visa in Australia: https://www.migrationsolutions.com.au/australias-over-stayers/

    ...as of June 30, 2014...
    @bondegezou is surely right that visa overstayers (or people who came not needed a visa and never left) make up a much larger proportion of illegals in the Uk than boat crossers.
    Some of it is just poor record keeping. I was simultaneously illegally overstaying in Australia, USA and working in England 20 years ago.

    I only found out that I hadn't been counted as departing when I next wanted to go to those countries. It was a bit of a hassle proving that I had left, in order to get a visa.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,585
    A big uptick in people crossing into the US from Canada was down to Canada relaxing the rules on visa entry. They just straight off the plane and over the border into the US, where they immediately call the local officials and claim asylum.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,915
    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    I've just read that Gatwick airport management are putting up the drop off charge to 7quid from 2 May. There is no possible justification apart from some bullshit about the eco footprint bollocks so often spoken about.
    If Gatwick was worried about it's eco footprintbolocks they'd reduce the no of flights not try for a second runway.
    The whole business is shambolic and designed to fleece the traveller.

    You get 2 hrs pick up and drop off at the long stay foc and the airport buses are every few minutes and only take a few minutes so it is a bit of an unnecessary luxury to be delivered or picked up directly from the terminal to be honest.
    I would have put the charge up even further. People complaining about this probably have a bad case of CarBrain, they can't comprehend doing anything but using a car to drive right to the door of the place they need to be.
    I normally get the train to Gatwick, unless I have a particularly early flight - and I tend not to book those. Partly because I can't get there, partly because getting up in the middle of the night starts a trip on a bum note
    The couple of times I’ve had an early flight from Gatwick it’s been travel down the night before and the premier inn by the airport isn’t that expensive in the scheme of things
    I shall be getting a neighbour to drop me at the petrol station and walk the 100 yds or so to the escalator. SCREW Gatwick who are putting up the charge to make them look green. It's Ed Milibandism and they can get stuffed.
    With all due respect, they are simply invoking the name of Milliband to justify raising prices.
    So are all most corporate green initiatives. Robbing the poor and claiming you're doing it for the future of the planet. Nice work if you can get it.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,831
    edited 6:13AM
    2022 figures! But different ones, this is number of people held in immigration detention in Australia: https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-stats/files/immigration-detention-statistics-28-february-2022.pdf The UK is 9th as country of origin. (New Zealand is 1st.)

    People held in immigration detention is more than just visa overstayers. The largest group here is visa cancellations.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,740

    NEW THREAD

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,423
    TimS said:

    Good evening from the rooftop bar at the LondonHouse Chicago, where a small beer just set me back $11.



    Shit weather here today, which is a shame. But some excellent skyscraper architecture to look at. From neo-gothic to art deco to modernist to postmodern to whatever we call contemporary architecture including, though it pains me to say it, the Trump tower which is actually a pretty decent building if you ignore the huge “TRUMP” emblazoned on it.

    I’m going to miss the voting because my postal vote didn’t turn up. So Brockley ward wont be turning Lib Dem after all.

    Is there a by-election in Brockley?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,794
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:
    Hmmm. How does this by the Ukraine Deputy First Minister:

    In a post on social media he said the two countries would establish a reconstruction investment fund with each side having 50% voting rights and made clear that Kyiv would not be asked to pay back any “debt” for US aid during the war.
    (Your link)

    square with this from Mr Chump:

    The minerals deal, which has been the subject of tense negotiations for months and nearly fell through hours before it was signed, will establish a US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund that the Trump administration has said will begin to repay an estimated $175bn in aid provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the war.
    (Link: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/30/us-ukraine-minerals-deal-russia)

    Too many weasel words and overlap; we need the full text.

    It's interesting, though peripheral, that the lawyers mentioned as advising Ukraine are Hogan Lovells, who are one of the firms unconstitutionally targeted by Trump's regime via an Executive Order in his aim to extort 100s of $m of free legal representation.

    With the information I have, I'd say that this is a generalist set of principles, which Ukraine intend to use to hold the US Govt onside whilst preventing them pivoting to Russia in practice (rather than in their heads) - whilst there is more time for Russia's economy and arms supply to run down.

    And that Trump has backed down from his
    bluster as his balloon popped, as he always does when reality dawns. Trump is looking for corrupt opportunities to use his position to enrich himself, his friends, and his puppet masters.
    It looks to me like Ukraine is giving the US a formal say in who wins reconstruction contracts. But I suspect this is just an MoU
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,404
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @atrupar.com‬

    State Dept spox Tammy Bruce says she doesn't have the details of the new minerals deal with Ukraine, but in the next breath claims "it is of course -- and it's not a surprise, because it's President Donald Trump -- it is the perfect deal."

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lo2rudep722i

    Being able to bully a weaker nation in a desperate situation should result in a good 'deal' for the United States as a bare minimum I would say.
    I don’t see it like that.

    I think it’s Ukraine who wanted it signed, and the Trump Administration truly unwise to sign it.

    The same deal was offered to Biden’s administration, and they said no.

    There’s so many experts on web who argued US shouldn’t sign this, as it was bad commercially, scientifically, and bad politically to be tied into this.

    Believing Trump has made a huge mistake, and this is a win for Ukraine, I’m just dumbfounded.
    I tend to agree with you: it's unlikely the US will never make a penny out of this, because the chances of there being commercially exploitable rare earths is so small.

    That said, the question is very much does Ukraine get anything?

    At the very least, I hope this means the US continued to support Ukraine.
    We have discussed it often enough on PB - I have gone from knowing zilch about these things to knowing mining is just one cost and time consuming activity, some rare earths need processing that is energy consuming and expensive, all this factored in before you start making any profit at all. And much Ukrainian rare earths are guesswork from ancient soviet surveys - so the key difference in the industry of not being sure what’s there and actually knowing what’s there. And as you said yourself, Robert, first thing about rare earths they are not all that rare, so why the USA choosing rare earths below argued over land in what’s currently a hot war without any end?

    Biden asked around if any companies fancied the Ukraine proposal, and none did. Biden laughed the Ukraine proposal off with a gentle, nice try, pat on Ukraine governments upper arm. Trump has signed it. It just seems very odd Trump thinks this is a great deal for US to get itself into. An Administration that believes its own wild propaganda? Is this the evidence to suspect there’s no clever “art of the deal” games here, what they say is actually what they believe?
    I think reality doesn't matter to Trump: all he cares about is how is perceived, and that he is seen to have come out on top.

    Ukraine signed *his* minerals deal. And therefore, Trump (and to a lesser extent the US) has won.

    What happens next is irrelevant; he gets to declare victory.
    More specifically declare victory at the end of the current realty tv episode.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,082
    kle4 said:

    Well, it's election day tomorrow and I'm bored.

    It's year 4 of the local cycle round Sefton/Bootle way, so no local elections at all, no mayor, no PCC. There is the nearby Runcorn by-election and a few work colleagues are in the seat (one is a staunch Conservative and now doesn't know what to do) but for me tomorrow is going to be a yawn fest.

    I always prefer following elections when I'm able to take part.

    I would like them to get rid of the election by thirds and move everywhere to all out and then have all English local elections at once as they do in Scotland and Wales. Would probably help drive up turnout (although the activists might not like it)
    I've even heard of some elections being by half, though I don't know of anywhere which actually does it. Madness, I tell you, madness!
    "It's an election of two halves"
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,082
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    OK having been horribly mean about London for the last six weeks (years?) I have to confess, nothing makes you appreciate the beauty of Georgian/early Victorian townhouse architecture, as six weeks spent in the largely Soviet and post Soviet buildings of Central Asia (the odd bit of Samarkand and Astana excepted)

    My God, London can be lovely. Especially in warm late April sun. Especially around Primrose Hill, it is sublime

    But why the F can't we build like that, any more?

    We can, and Welborne in southern Hampshire looks like showing that you don't even need royal involvement.

    But doing it and making space for three cars per household is blooming difficult.
    Tell these twats that if they want THREE cars they can fuck off. Then build these beautiful Georgian terraces and squares with enough parking for one car at most. And then: let the market decide

    I suspect the people moaning about their stupid cars will suddenly forget their gripes and go for the beautiful house in a beautiful neighborhood
    Next you'll be wanting most amenities accessible within a 15 minute walk. Commie.
    No, I've always been anti-car. That is to say, I love cars and the freedom they bring, but that freedom can - and will - be delivered in the future by FSD auto e-cars which park themselves overnight in huge underground bunkers, freeing up our town and cities for human beings that WALK and RUN and CYCLE and PLAY and HAVE SEX IN BEAUTIFUL ORCHARDS THAT USED TO BE CAR PARKS

    We shall grow thin and slender from all our walking and jogging and laughing and shagging. Our servile automobiles will live in dungeons as they should aways have done

    Bring it on. And build like the Georgians again. Garden squares for all

    Eastenders was set in a garden square....seemed somewhat dystopian to me at least
    There is a real, genuine Albert Square near Stratford. But it only has two sides!

    https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/Albert+Square,+London/@51.5477557,0.007076,447m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x47d8a7850e1775cf:0xc66089e6621ebc1d!8m2!3d51.5477557!4d0.0096509!16s/g/1tk1y9f0?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI1MDQyOC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw==
    Typical...if in london they would have built all four sides because its in the boonies lack of investment makes them put up with two sided squares
    Stratford, in east London!
    I assumed you meant the one in warwickshire, the famous one
    Only one end of Stratford in Warwickshire is famous.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,018
    MattW said:

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    I've just read that Gatwick airport management are putting up the drop off charge to 7quid from 2 May. There is no possible justification apart from some bullshit about the eco footprint bollocks so often spoken about.
    If Gatwick was worried about it's eco footprintbolocks they'd reduce the no of flights not try for a second runway.
    The whole business is shambolic and designed to fleece the traveller.

    You get 2 hrs pick up and drop off at the long stay foc and the airport buses are every few minutes and only take a few minutes so it is a bit of an unnecessary luxury to be delivered or picked up directly from the terminal to be honest.
    I would have put the charge up even further. People complaining about this probably have a bad case of CarBrain, they can't comprehend doing anything but using a car to drive right to the door of the place they need to be.
    I normally get the train to Gatwick, unless I have a particularly early flight - and I tend not to book those. Partly because I can't get there, partly because getting up in the middle of the night starts a trip on a bum note
    The couple of times I’ve had an early flight from Gatwick it’s been travel down the night before and the premier inn by the airport isn’t that expensive in the scheme of things
    I shall be getting a neighbour to drop me at the petrol station and walk the 100 yds or so to the escalator. SCREW Gatwick who are putting up the charge to make them look green. It's Ed Milibandism and they can get stuffed.
    That seems to be achieving it's objective then - depending perhaps on your previous arrangements?

    It's amazing how a small nudge / Pigou Tax can change behaviour :smile: .

    Moar !! Moar !!
    It didn't change anything
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