Bookies are following the polls and UNS/electoral calculus.
If you slavishly apply them and assume no poll movement then the maths spew out big Lab majorities.
Yes, but Stuart has a point: they are not consistent with the odds which the same bookies quote on Con/Lab Most Seats or Con/Lab Maj
But that is evidence of one or other of the (sets of) markets offering value rather than of one view of the likely outcome of the next general election being more valid than another.
Indeed. The problem is: which markets are offering the value? The evidence thus far would tend to suggest the constituency markets. However, when you delve into each individual constituency, it is very hard to spot value without good local knowledge.
Yes, Russian GDP per head is about $13,000. Being Russian has been - if not actually good - then certainly not been bad. Being in a state that looked West has - on average - been slightly better. Being in a Russian satellite state has been an absolute disaster, whether we're talking Moldova, Georgia, Beloruse, or Ukraine.
Being on the international radar is a huge boost to anyone. The Soviet Union had places within it that were unknown and almost unknowable. Russia, all by its little self, has the same issue. Crimea exploding onto the world stage is just one of (no doubt) many examples of the people making themselves known.
Although the Russian action was wrong it seems clear that they engendered the right result for Crimea. The Russians should apologise a lot, and make it entirely clear that if there is ever any momentum for a move back to the Ukraine amongst the Crimean population that they'd be very very helpful in facilitating any referendum process.
Hat's off incidentally to the Ukrainian people. They've weathered the daftness and can hopefully be left alone to shape their future as they see fit.
I agree with all of that. Hopefully, the people of the Crimea will be happy to be reunited with Russia. Hopefully, the people of the rest of Ukraine will be free to forge their own path.
'The idea that the purples are taking as many votes from LAB as CON is a nonsense.'
All right, this is from my vast experience only, but almost all the UKIP supporters I know are ex-Labour. (The only ex-Tory one recently told me he's 'gone off Farage' because 'every time you see him he's drinking'.) Of course, every Kipper knows he'd sound deranged if he admitted voting for Gordon in 2010, hence this curious memory revision in the polling. Moreover, the demographics don't fit. UKIP's great appeal is to the angry and disillusioned poor - Labour territory; the truculent men of UKIP are less likely to make inroads into sedate Toryism and the comfortably off.
If I was Mike, I wouldn't name my price in that way, he may be setting the bar too low, and giving any interested parties a negotiating crowbar to beat him with.
Comments
All right, this is from my vast experience only, but almost all the UKIP supporters I know are ex-Labour. (The only ex-Tory one recently told me he's 'gone off Farage' because 'every time you see him he's drinking'.) Of course, every Kipper knows he'd sound deranged if he admitted voting for Gordon in 2010, hence this curious memory revision in the polling. Moreover, the demographics don't fit. UKIP's great appeal is to the angry and disillusioned poor - Labour territory; the truculent men of UKIP are less likely to make inroads into sedate Toryism and the comfortably off.
Remember Mike, PB is the Fortnum & Mason of political blogs not Poundland !!
"Is PB to be sold on the cheap for £250K ?"