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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Murdoch predicts LAB victory at GE2015
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Murdoch predicts LAB victory at GE2015
The idea that the purples are taking as many votes from LAB as CON is a nonsense. UKIP hurts the Tories far more than any other party as can be seen from the chart based on the aggregate of all Populus polls last month.
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I don't think so - but may keep some Labourites warm at night I suppose.
Now back to the cricket.
I've said before that I think past voting records are being mis-remembered.
In any case, what with the Labour lead recently being ~2pts, the UKIP vote is now six times larger. 45% of UKIP is maybe 5-6% of VI.
It's lovely to see my fellow PBers getting so excited by an extremely boring and tedious sport like Cricket
However I am not prepared yet to call a Labour GE election win. I still suspect minds might become more concentrated as GE 2015 becomes imminent. In two seminal recent elections 1997 and 2010 voters took their revenge on the failed governing party - that is not going to occur this time barring some unforeseen disaster for the coalition.
Happy punting on Jade and Co
Oh yes, an In/Out referendum on the EU by the end of 2017. That should do it.
You see the problem...
You are confusing the means with the end. UKIP want withdrawal from the EU. A referendum is merely a means to that end. If UKIP believe that a cameron led referendum is not winnable for out then the offer of a referendum is worthless and all your posturing equally worthless.
I want us out of the EU despite not being a UKIP voter and I would rather see a referendum held in far more favourable circumstances than under Cameron in 2017.
A 2017 referendum would have for the in side Lib,lab, and con, the BBC, the EU and the fortune it would spending on funding the in side most of the main stream media which would also mean that you only got to hear from the pro eu business side.
A referendum under those terms really isn't an easy one to consider winnable regardless of the strength of your arguments purely on the propaganda front. Much better in my view to ensure that the referendum is not held in the first place with the added bonus that Labour getting in for another term is going to end up bringing the social democracy disease to a screeching halt when they bankrupt the country which is the way we are heading regardless of which of con or lab get in only the speed we are travelling differs between the two parties of the over large state
Profuse apologies to @EricPickles – I have spoken to him to apologise & am sorry. Inappropriate tweet.
Eric Pickles @EricPickles 3m
“@SadiqKhan: Profuse apologies to @EricPickles – I have spoken to him to apologise & am sorry. Inappropriate tweet.” Apology accepted
Remarkably amicable and grown up behaviour by both parties imho.
But basically I agree with you: there is no deal possible, because UKIP don't want a referendum, are just wanting to wreck the progress which has been made under the coalition, and are actively working for a Labour government.
Take them to the effing airport and make this end.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2
Cameron was who I voted for in 2010 and he has done absolutely nothing to warrant a revote for him. I genuinely don't care which of the two idiots ed or dave get to wave inanely from number 10 as both are equally crap and you really cannot fit a fag paper between them. The only mild difference is one will drive us bankrupt in 3 years and the other in 4.
Personally if we are going to flush the country down the toilet my view is lets get it over and done with so we can start rebuilding once we get rid of a good proportion of the state that we cannot afford.
They don't care who is in power 2015-2020 and perhaps beyond: they want to depose Cam, install an EU-out-friendly Leader of the Cons and fight future battles together with the Cons on a definitive Out commitment in a future manifesto.
Though UKIP tallying well is undoubtedly a potentially large problem for the Conservatives.
Lab 1/4
Con 11/4
PC 100/1
UKIP 100/1
LD 100/1
Lab 1/2
Con 6/4
UKIP 100/1
LD 100/1
www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tSa3xLVYgM
Lab 1/3
Con 2/1
UKIP 50/1
LD 100/1
The Daily Mail headline writes itself.
As for the EU, I think Cameron is being dishonest in pretending he can, if returned in 2015, negotiate any meaningful reform by 2017. However, as he declared himself to be the true heir to Blair I am not surprised.
Cameron simply doesn't appear to be that interested. He'd rather the issue just went away.
Come to think of it, given the relative failure on the deficit, which was supposed to be the number one priority of a Cameron government, the complete disappearance of the Big Society and the otherwise admirable way in which Cameron has allowed cabinet colleagues to do their own thing**, it's really not clear what Cameron is interested in.
** Take for example a minister like Gove. One gets the impression that Gove is implementing his own policies as Education secretary, whereas when Blair was PM you had the strong feeling that all his cabinet - except the Treasury - were following a script written in Number 10.
The Conservatives, who don't agree with any of those proposals, Labour, who vehemently disagree, or the LDs who are even less open to them?
So, what this chart shows is that one-in-twelve Lib Dems have gone from the Yellow Peril to Purple Preachers.
Which makes sense: one would expect that one-in-five (at least) of Lib Dem supporters were really "none of the above" / "a new type of politics" voters.
Two we are heading for destruction whichever of lab or con get in they are both a waste of space, so its not like frankly anyone has a choice to vote in a way that doesn't avoid ruin
I do not want destruction but it is coming as long as our main parties adhere to social democracy ideals. We cannot afford it and the crash is coming sooner or later.
I dislike much of ukip policy and about the only one I agree with them on (though for different reasons) is the out of EU one. Liblabcon have nothing to recommend them though, greens are madder than a box of frogs and I am not bnp material as I prefer an open door immigration policy
Frankly who the hell do you suggest I vote for?
So, rather than accusing him of dishonesty, why not face reality? There are three choices:
1) The Labour/LibDem/UKIP way: do nothing, except give in to ever-closer union. At least when Labour and the LibDems work towards that end, they are being honest and consistent.
2) Attempt renegotiation. If that succeeds, great, if it doesn't, there is always option 3:
3) Put it to the people to decide in a referendum whether they want to remain in the EU on the best terms we can get.
That is the reality. There is nothing else - and the only party which is being dishonest about it is UKIP, who witter on about giving the people a choice and then do everything in their power to sabotage that choice.
I think all governments want lower taxes. They also all want higher spending.
The question - really - is whether the party believes in "the magic money tree" or not.
And there, I would suggest UKIP is just as bad as the Labour Party. (And as bad as the LibDems will be as soon as they are removed from power and can happily make all the promises they used to make...)
Well that seems to be Cameron's plan anyway.
Lab 1/3
Con 2/1
UKIP 66/1
LD 100/1
Lab 1/7
Con 4/1
Grn 100/1
UKIP 100/1
LD 100/1
'Nice to see' indeed - Is Neil Kinnock the 'new' Prince Phillip of the Labour party ; )
Why would that be?
Why, if Miliband wins in 2015 wouldn't a Conservative PM in 2020, who actually wants to leave the EU, offer a referendum?
Still, if that is the plan, why are UKIP working to put Labour MPs into parliament? That reduces the Eurosceptic/Europhobic representation in parliament.
If UKIP really wanted to do what you say, they'd stand down in marginal constituencies where there's a strongly Eurosceptic MP and urge their supporters to vote for him or her (usually that would a Conservative like James Wharton, but there are a few Eurosceptic Labour MPs they could also assist).
Lab 1/3
Con 2/1
UKIP 50/1
LD 100/1
Lab 1/5
Con 3/1
UKIP 50/1
LD 100/1
Lab 1/16
LD 10/1
Con 25/1
PC 100/1
UKIP 100/1
Either way, I never understand where you get the "last chance for a referendum in a generation" line from. Who says so?
UKIP voters know that voting Cameron will mean compromising almost everything they believe in to give a mandate to someone who actively dislikes them, and wants to prevent everything they desire
You're a sensible guy, you must know something about human nature, and that we aren't going to do that
Five years down the line, an unpopular Miliband govt losing to a BOO Tory leader, possibly with Kipper MPs in a coalition/supporting role is more likely than no referendum for years
You've had it explained to you as recently as yesterday why UKIPpers - justifiably in my view, but at least not capriciously or irrationally - wholly disbelieve Cameron's promise of a referendum.
You've said yourself upthread there is no prospect of terms being improved.
Cameron has said on the record he will not leave the EU, and his proposed referendum does not bind him to do anything.
You therefore know perfectly well why no UKIP supporter buys the Cameron offer of a renegotiation followed by a vote in 2017. The former can be seen not to be happening. The latter either will not, or if it did, will not be acted upon. On balance, Cameron is lying.
You understand this UKIPper view perfectly well. Why are you pretending not to?
You're suggesting he should give up without even trying.
Fair enough, but that is an argument for an In/Out referendum as soon as possible, to settle whether we want to accept the current deal as it stands or not. Since we can't have a referendum in this parliament, as our LibDem friends are not keen even if the Conservatives all agreed with you that it's not worth trying to improve things, the next best option is what Cameron and the whole party are committed to: a referendum in the next parliament.
But, that leaves 550 or so constituencies that should be contested. Running against Conservative MPs who wish to remain in the EU is perfectly sensible.
Of course we shouldn't have started from here. It is Brown and Blair, not Cameron, who screwed up. He has the incredibly difficult task of trying to undo at least some of the damage. It is quite extraordinary that the Kippers blame him for the mess the Labour Party got us into to, and in revenge are trying to put that very same Labour Party back into power. No he hasn't. In any case he wouldn't have the choice. An Out vote would mean we'd be Out, probably under a different leader, but 100% certainly out.
He's absolutely right, though: if you put an EU In Out referendum at the top of your political priorities, the only way you are going to stand a chance of getting it any time soon is to vote Tory in 2015. You have a clear choice on that. There is no way on God's earth that Cameron will back out of that commitment if he wins next year.
The problem, I think, is that for many UKIP voters it's not really about Europe at all.
Lab 1/16
LD 8/1
UKIP 100/1
Con 100/1
Please remember I am not fixated on the EU. I came into this discussion because of your assertion that people who hated Cameron did so irrationally. I loathe and despise him not because of his stance on the EU, that just serves to illustrate his character.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26773702
Lab 16,384
Con 14,602
PC 1,850
LD 1,595
That is still a pretty huge CON vote. I'd be a tad nervous at backing LAB as short as 1/4 in a seat like that.
Richard knows this but pretends not to realise it to suit his argument
If Nick Griffin agreed to hold a referendum over whether there should be either a Black Mayor of London or Black Head of the Met at all times, I wonder if Doreen Lawrence would vote BNP.
If she didn't can we say she doesn't want black people to be represented in high office?