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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Murdoch predicts LAB victory at GE2015

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited March 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Murdoch predicts LAB victory at GE2015

The idea that the purples are taking as many votes from LAB as CON is a nonsense. UKIP hurts the Tories far more than any other party as can be seen from the chart based on the aggregate of all Populus polls last month.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Dropped!
  • So number 33 and 35 most influential twitterers over 50 are calling it for Ed.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Can Ukip retain support in a GE campaign where they have no chance of winning anything other than a token MP ?

    I don't think so - but may keep some Labourites warm at night I suppose.

    Now back to the cricket.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    Cameron will never win an overall majority for the Tories.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    "The idea that the purples are taking as many votes from LAB as CON is a nonsense."

    I've said before that I think past voting records are being mis-remembered.

    In any case, what with the Labour lead recently being ~2pts, the UKIP vote is now six times larger. 45% of UKIP is maybe 5-6% of VI.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    FPT

    It's lovely to see my fellow PBers getting so excited by an extremely boring and tedious sport like Cricket :)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Sorry to be picky, but the 16% Non Voter must surely include 2010 others?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    I wouldn't argue with his reasoning, just his facts. They're making negative progress at the moment.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SL 70:1 after 10 overs against Eng
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    FPT but have the PB sports fans see the Standard's story about the Uefa League of Nations? Sounds like a great idea for a change
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited March 2014
    Unless SL declare, this game is over. Our fielding is worse than the Associates, now Buttler mucks up.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    I wouldn't argue with his reasoning, just his facts. They're making negative progress at the moment.

    Indeed. The Tories very skilfully nicked 2+pts off them at the Budget which Rupert chooses to ignore.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    I suspect the 55% non Tories planning to vote Ukip are floating voters from previous elections. The Tories might have reasonably been expected to pick some of these up as well.- so doubly bad news.

    However I am not prepared yet to call a Labour GE election win. I still suspect minds might become more concentrated as GE 2015 becomes imminent. In two seminal recent elections 1997 and 2010 voters took their revenge on the failed governing party - that is not going to occur this time barring some unforeseen disaster for the coalition.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Toodles PBers

    Happy punting on Jade and Co
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2014
    Well, I for one would argue with his reasoning, since no deal with UKIP is on offer. Even if it were, what could the Tories offer that UKIP want?

    Oh yes, an In/Out referendum on the EU by the end of 2017. That should do it.

    You see the problem...
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    17% of current UKIP supporters voted LibDem in 2010? Really? Does this not strike anyone else as a little odd?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    BobaFett said:

    FPT but have the PB sports fans see the Standard's story about the Uefa League of Nations? Sounds like a great idea for a change

    Should have called it "Nations League", but it's better than what we have now where friendlies are completely useless.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    I don't think Labour should be relying on flaky Purple Tories at GE2015
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    Interesting that UKIP now attracts twice as many 2010 LDs as 2010 Labour.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Interesting that UKIP now attracts twice as many 2010 LDs as 2010 Labour.

    Probably explained by older voters in the south and south-west.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    I can't see Ed Milliband winning on current polling trends.
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689

    Well, I for one would argue with his reasoning, since no deal with UKIP is on offer. Even if it were, what could the Tories offer that UKIP want?

    Oh yes, an In/Out referendum on the EU by the end of 2017. That should do it.

    You see the problem...

    Note here I am not a kipper so am only trying to explain how I think they see it.

    You are confusing the means with the end. UKIP want withdrawal from the EU. A referendum is merely a means to that end. If UKIP believe that a cameron led referendum is not winnable for out then the offer of a referendum is worthless and all your posturing equally worthless.

    I want us out of the EU despite not being a UKIP voter and I would rather see a referendum held in far more favourable circumstances than under Cameron in 2017.

    A 2017 referendum would have for the in side Lib,lab, and con, the BBC, the EU and the fortune it would spending on funding the in side most of the main stream media which would also mean that you only got to hear from the pro eu business side.

    A referendum under those terms really isn't an easy one to consider winnable regardless of the strength of your arguments purely on the propaganda front. Much better in my view to ensure that the referendum is not held in the first place with the added bonus that Labour getting in for another term is going to end up bringing the social democracy disease to a screeching halt when they bankrupt the country which is the way we are heading regardless of which of con or lab get in only the speed we are travelling differs between the two parties of the over large state

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2014

    17% of current UKIP supporters voted LibDem in 2010? Really? Does this not strike anyone else as a little odd?

    No because in areas like the south-west the LDs get a lot of support from people who are actually pretty Eurosceptic. They vote LD because they don't like the Tories and Labour don't have much chance of winning many seats in the region.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lanka to reach 200 is 6/1

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited March 2014
    Sadiq Khan MP ‏@SadiqKhan 10m
    Profuse apologies to @EricPickles – I have spoken to him to apologise & am sorry. Inappropriate tweet.

    Eric Pickles ‏@EricPickles 3m
    @SadiqKhan: Profuse apologies to @EricPickles – I have spoken to him to apologise & am sorry. Inappropriate tweet.” Apology accepted

    Remarkably amicable and grown up behaviour by both parties imho.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2014
    @ZenPagan - That argument would make a little bit of sense if it were not for the fact that UKIP have spent the last four years laying into Cameron for not holding a referendum straight away.

    But basically I agree with you: there is no deal possible, because UKIP don't want a referendum, are just wanting to wreck the progress which has been made under the coalition, and are actively working for a Labour government.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Whilst I do not think the tories will get an outright majority as the system is stacked against them for that, I do think they will emerge as the largest party with most votes. I think after the MAY Euro elections the UKIP protest "dissatisfaction with the main parties" will wane away as GE2015 looms near and voters minds are concentrated on electing a government with economic credential, and the prospect of PM EdM will scare most floaters away from labour. Its very tight because of the Lib - Lab switchers but I think Cameron will do just enough to continue as PM under CON/LIB coalition II
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited March 2014
    Another drop by Bresnan.....

    Take them to the effing airport and make this end.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    I know some of UKIP's supporters don't like Cameron to say the least, but are they so crazy to actually want Red Ed to get his Marxist paws on the levers of power?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054

    @ZenPagan - That argument would make a little bit of sense if it were not for the fact that UKIP have spent the last four years laying into Cameron for not holding a referendum straight away.

    But basically I agree with you: there is no deal possible, because UKIP don't want a referendum, are just wanting to wreck the progress which has been made, and are actively working for a Labour government.

    A view I have heard espoused by many Kippers is that they would prefer a Labour government from 2015 because they feel the Tories haven't done too bad a job in holding back the EU's reach in the UK. Labour, they feel, would be far worse at it and more easily give power away to Brussels, making their argument of abdication from the EU without a vote easier to get across. I don't know if this is what Farage thinks, but one does wonder given how little firepower has been aimed at anti-EU Labour voters.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2014
    Now here's a thought: what will UKIP do if Cameron does get a second term and therefore the In/Out referendum takes place in 2017? Boycott it on some pretext?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour's average lead is now 3% according to the UKPR polling average:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    saddo said:

    I know some of UKIP's supporters don't like Cameron to say the least, but are they so crazy to actually want Red Ed to get his Marxist paws on the levers of power?

    I am a floating voter as I have voted for all 3 main parties at some point in my life never voted for UKIP before but I will probably do so in the next GE.

    Cameron was who I voted for in 2010 and he has done absolutely nothing to warrant a revote for him. I genuinely don't care which of the two idiots ed or dave get to wave inanely from number 10 as both are equally crap and you really cannot fit a fag paper between them. The only mild difference is one will drive us bankrupt in 3 years and the other in 4.

    Personally if we are going to flush the country down the toilet my view is lets get it over and done with so we can start rebuilding once we get rid of a good proportion of the state that we cannot afford.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited March 2014
    Spurs aren't playing tonight are they by any chance..... the terrible English Ashes Winter debacle still continues....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited March 2014
    MaxPB said:

    @ZenPagan - That argument would make a little bit of sense if it were not for the fact that UKIP have spent the last four years laying into Cameron for not holding a referendum straight away.

    But basically I agree with you: there is no deal possible, because UKIP don't want a referendum, are just wanting to wreck the progress which has been made, and are actively working for a Labour government.

    A view I have heard espoused by many Kippers is that they would prefer a Labour government from 2015 because they feel the Tories haven't done too bad a job in holding back the EU's reach in the UK. Labour, they feel, would be far worse at it and more easily give power away to Brussels, making their argument of abdication from the EU without a vote easier to get across. I don't know if this is what Farage thinks, but one does wonder given how little firepower has been aimed at anti-EU Labour voters.
    Bob Crow (RIP) was anti-EU.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited March 2014

    @ZenPagan - That argument would make a little bit of sense if it were not for the fact that UKIP have spent the last four years laying into Cameron for not holding a referendum straight away.

    But basically I agree with you: there is no deal possible, because UKIP don't want a referendum, are just wanting to wreck the progress which has been made under the coalition, and are actively working for a Labour government.

    The Kippers are happy for the Cons to lose because they don't like Cam or think he will deliver on his referendum pledge. You can tell them he will 'til the cows come home but they won't have it. To them he is pro-EU and that's that.

    They don't care who is in power 2015-2020 and perhaps beyond: they want to depose Cam, install an EU-out-friendly Leader of the Cons and fight future battles together with the Cons on a definitive Out commitment in a future manifesto.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    MaxPB said:

    BobaFett said:

    FPT but have the PB sports fans see the Standard's story about the Uefa League of Nations? Sounds like a great idea for a change

    Should have called it "Nations League", but it's better than what we have now where friendlies are completely useless.
    BTW, have you seen http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/440ab8ae-af51-11e3-9cd1-00144feab7de.html - "UK video games industry wins battle for tax breaks" (after Commission "drops opposition") ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2014
    @MaxPB - To be honest, I don't think there is any logic whatsoever in their position. It's just inchoate unfocussed anger at reality, which is why Cameron - as the man who has to deal with reality - is the main target of their irrational hate. If Cameron were replaced by someone else, they'd simply transfer their anger to the successor.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Conservatives just need to concentrate on getting something approaching 40% of the vote share. If they do that, they'll probably be back in government after the election. Where they get that vote share from is less important. Right now that doesn't seem that ridiculous an ambition, given where they are polling now.

    Though UKIP tallying well is undoubtedly a potentially large problem for the Conservatives.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    Isn't Cameron (as heir-to-Blair) essentially a Europhile?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    New Ladbrokes market - Cardiff North (Con maj = 194)

    Lab 1/4
    Con 11/4
    PC 100/1
    UKIP 100/1
    LD 100/1
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    MaxPB said:

    @ZenPagan - That argument would make a little bit of sense if it were not for the fact that UKIP have spent the last four years laying into Cameron for not holding a referendum straight away.

    But basically I agree with you: there is no deal possible, because UKIP don't want a referendum, are just wanting to wreck the progress which has been made, and are actively working for a Labour government.

    A view I have heard espoused by many Kippers is that they would prefer a Labour government from 2015 because they feel the Tories haven't done too bad a job in holding back the EU's reach in the UK. Labour, they feel, would be far worse at it and more easily give power away to Brussels, making their argument of abdication from the EU without a vote easier to get across. I don't know if this is what Farage thinks, but one does wonder given how little firepower has been aimed at anti-EU Labour voters.
    IMO, the best result for UKIP in 2015 is a rerun of 2010, Conservative supporters will get even more frustrated at the Conservatives' inability to deliver Conservative policies. The Lib Dems can't regain the protest voters.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    @ZenPagan - That argument would make a little bit of sense if it were not for the fact that UKIP have spent the last four years laying into Cameron for not holding a referendum straight away.

    But basically I agree with you: there is no deal possible, because UKIP don't want a referendum, are just wanting to wreck the progress which has been made, and are actively working for a Labour government.

    A view I have heard espoused by many Kippers is that they would prefer a Labour government from 2015 because they feel the Tories haven't done too bad a job in holding back the EU's reach in the UK. Labour, they feel, would be far worse at it and more easily give power away to Brussels, making their argument of abdication from the EU without a vote easier to get across. I don't know if this is what Farage thinks, but one does wonder given how little firepower has been aimed at anti-EU Labour voters.
    IMO, the best result for UKIP in 2015 is a rerun of 2010, Conservative supporters will get even more frustrated at the Conservatives' inability to deliver Conservative policies. The Lib Dems can't regain the protest voters.

    Do you think that if we got - say - 10% LibDems (25 seats), 15% UKIP (0 seats) that would presage electoral reform? Do you think the Conservatives might change their long-term hatred of a PR-type system if they realised a split right made power incredibly difficult to achieve?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    AndyJS said:

    17% of current UKIP supporters voted LibDem in 2010? Really? Does this not strike anyone else as a little odd?

    No because in areas like the south-west the LDs get a lot of support from people who are actually pretty Eurosceptic. They vote LD because they don't like the Tories and Labour don't have much chance of winning many seats in the region.
    OK, that makes sense, I am surprised that the number is so high, though. Twice as many Lib Dems going to UKIP as Labour supporters does seem to fit.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Sadiq Khan MP ‏@SadiqKhan 10m
    Profuse apologies to @EricPickles – I have spoken to him to apologise & am sorry. Inappropriate tweet.

    Eric Pickles ‏@EricPickles 3m
    @SadiqKhan: Profuse apologies to @EricPickles – I have spoken to him to apologise & am sorry. Inappropriate tweet.” Apology accepted

    Remarkably amicable and grown up behaviour by both parties imho.

    Nice to see. As for Lord Kinnock he has got form on saying inappropriate things – old enough to know better.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    New Ladbrokes market - Hendon (Con maj = 106)

    Lab 1/2
    Con 6/4
    UKIP 100/1
    LD 100/1
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    ZenPagan said:

    saddo said:

    I know some of UKIP's supporters don't like Cameron to say the least, but are they so crazy to actually want Red Ed to get his Marxist paws on the levers of power?

    I am a floating voter as I have voted for all 3 main parties at some point in my life never voted for UKIP before but I will probably do so in the next GE.

    Cameron was who I voted for in 2010 and he has done absolutely nothing to warrant a revote for him. I genuinely don't care which of the two idiots ed or dave get to wave inanely from number 10 as both are equally crap and you really cannot fit a fag paper between them. The only mild difference is one will drive us bankrupt in 3 years and the other in 4.

    Personally if we are going to flush the country down the toilet my view is lets get it over and done with so we can start rebuilding once we get rid of a good proportion of the state that we cannot afford.
    Classic extreme kipper view. Bring on destruction and rebuild from the rubble. God help us if ukip ever got near real power. Incoherent, untrustworthy, selfish.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121

    Sadiq Khan MP ‏@SadiqKhan 10m
    Profuse apologies to @EricPickles – I have spoken to him to apologise & am sorry. Inappropriate tweet.

    Eric Pickles ‏@EricPickles 3m
    @SadiqKhan: Profuse apologies to @EricPickles – I have spoken to him to apologise & am sorry. Inappropriate tweet.” Apology accepted

    Remarkably amicable and grown up behaviour by both parties imho.

    "Apology accepted, Captain Needa!"

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tSa3xLVYgM
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    @ZenPagan - That argument would make a little bit of sense if it were not for the fact that UKIP have spent the last four years laying into Cameron for not holding a referendum straight away.

    But basically I agree with you: there is no deal possible, because UKIP don't want a referendum, are just wanting to wreck the progress which has been made, and are actively working for a Labour government.

    A view I have heard espoused by many Kippers is that they would prefer a Labour government from 2015 because they feel the Tories haven't done too bad a job in holding back the EU's reach in the UK. Labour, they feel, would be far worse at it and more easily give power away to Brussels, making their argument of abdication from the EU without a vote easier to get across. I don't know if this is what Farage thinks, but one does wonder given how little firepower has been aimed at anti-EU Labour voters.
    IMO, the best result for UKIP in 2015 is a rerun of 2010, Conservative supporters will get even more frustrated at the Conservatives' inability to deliver Conservative policies. The Lib Dems can't regain the protest voters.

    Do you think that if we got - say - 10% LibDems (25 seats), 15% UKIP (0 seats) that would presage electoral reform? Do you think the Conservatives might change their long-term hatred of a PR-type system if they realised a split right made power incredibly difficult to achieve?
    I doubt it. I think the Conservative Party will fight to the bitter end to retain a monopoly of right wing political representation.

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    New Ladbrokes market - Sherwood (Con maj = 214)

    Lab 1/3
    Con 2/1
    UKIP 50/1
    LD 100/1
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    O/T A letter in the Times is guaranteed to raise one's blood pressure. It's from Rev Paul Nicholson, who complains that a single mother of seven children has been disadvantaged by George Osborne's benefit cap. She used to receive £782 per week in benefits, but that's now been cut to £500 per week.

    The Daily Mail headline writes itself.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    edited March 2014
    Spanish media reporting that a passenger aeroplane has crashed into the sea off the Canary Islands. No company named, number on board not known. The crash was two miles off the coast of Gran Canaria.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    Spanish media reporting that a passenger aeroplane has crashed into the sea off the Canary Islands. No company named, number on board not known.

    apparently a false alarm
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    @MaxPB - To be honest, I don't think there is any logic whatsoever in their position. It's just inchoate unfocussed anger at reality, which is why Cameron - as the man who has to deal with reality - is the main target of their irrational hate. If Cameron were replaced by someone else, they'd simply transfer their anger to the successor.

    There is nothing irrational about my hatred for Cameron! Actually, hatred is too strong a word, I don't hate the man. Loathe and despise, yes but note hate.

    As for the EU, I think Cameron is being dishonest in pretending he can, if returned in 2015, negotiate any meaningful reform by 2017. However, as he declared himself to be the true heir to Blair I am not surprised.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited March 2014

    New Ladbrokes market - Sherwood (Con maj = 214)

    Lab 1/3
    Con 2/1
    UKIP 50/1
    LD 100/1

    Almost the same odds as CLegg in Hallam where he has a 15000 majority (1/4 rather than 1/3)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    rcs1000 said:

    Spanish media reporting that a passenger aeroplane has crashed into the sea off the Canary Islands. No company named, number on board not known.

    apparently a false alarm

    Yup, just saw that. Good news.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Isn't Cameron (as heir-to-Blair) essentially a Europhile?

    No, Blair was really enthusiastic about Europe, but he was stymied by Brown, the hostility of the British public and his own cowardice.

    Cameron simply doesn't appear to be that interested. He'd rather the issue just went away.

    Come to think of it, given the relative failure on the deficit, which was supposed to be the number one priority of a Cameron government, the complete disappearance of the Big Society and the otherwise admirable way in which Cameron has allowed cabinet colleagues to do their own thing**, it's really not clear what Cameron is interested in.

    ** Take for example a minister like Gove. One gets the impression that Gove is implementing his own policies as Education secretary, whereas when Blair was PM you had the strong feeling that all his cabinet - except the Treasury - were following a script written in Number 10.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2014
    Which party would someone who wanted out of the EU, believed in Grammar Schools, didn't agree with the amount of foreign aid we give, and wanted lower taxes vote for?

    The Conservatives, who don't agree with any of those proposals, Labour, who vehemently disagree, or the LDs who are even less open to them?



  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    AndyJS said:

    17% of current UKIP supporters voted LibDem in 2010? Really? Does this not strike anyone else as a little odd?

    No because in areas like the south-west the LDs get a lot of support from people who are actually pretty Eurosceptic. They vote LD because they don't like the Tories and Labour don't have much chance of winning many seats in the region.
    OK, that makes sense, I am surprised that the number is so high, though. Twice as many Lib Dems going to UKIP as Labour supporters does seem to fit.
    Remember, UKIP is on - give or take - 14% in the polls. 17% of 14% is (give or take) 2%. The Lib Dems got 25% last time around.

    So, what this chart shows is that one-in-twelve Lib Dems have gone from the Yellow Peril to Purple Preachers.

    Which makes sense: one would expect that one-in-five (at least) of Lib Dem supporters were really "none of the above" / "a new type of politics" voters.
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    perdix said:

    ZenPagan said:

    saddo said:

    I know some of UKIP's supporters don't like Cameron to say the least, but are they so crazy to actually want Red Ed to get his Marxist paws on the levers of power?

    I am a floating voter as I have voted for all 3 main parties at some point in my life never voted for UKIP before but I will probably do so in the next GE.

    Cameron was who I voted for in 2010 and he has done absolutely nothing to warrant a revote for him. I genuinely don't care which of the two idiots ed or dave get to wave inanely from number 10 as both are equally crap and you really cannot fit a fag paper between them. The only mild difference is one will drive us bankrupt in 3 years and the other in 4.

    Personally if we are going to flush the country down the toilet my view is lets get it over and done with so we can start rebuilding once we get rid of a good proportion of the state that we cannot afford.
    Classic extreme kipper view. Bring on destruction and rebuild from the rubble. God help us if ukip ever got near real power. Incoherent, untrustworthy, selfish.

    One which part of I am not a kipper did you fail to understand?

    Two we are heading for destruction whichever of lab or con get in they are both a waste of space, so its not like frankly anyone has a choice to vote in a way that doesn't avoid ruin

    I do not want destruction but it is coming as long as our main parties adhere to social democracy ideals. We cannot afford it and the crash is coming sooner or later.

    I dislike much of ukip policy and about the only one I agree with them on (though for different reasons) is the out of EU one. Liblabcon have nothing to recommend them though, greens are madder than a box of frogs and I am not bnp material as I prefer an open door immigration policy

    Frankly who the hell do you suggest I vote for?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2014

    As for the EU, I think Cameron is being dishonest in pretending he can, if returned in 2015, negotiate any meaningful reform by 2017.

    Well, no-one ever claimed it was going to be easy, and he might be over-optimistic.

    So, rather than accusing him of dishonesty, why not face reality? There are three choices:

    1) The Labour/LibDem/UKIP way: do nothing, except give in to ever-closer union. At least when Labour and the LibDems work towards that end, they are being honest and consistent.

    2) Attempt renegotiation. If that succeeds, great, if it doesn't, there is always option 3:

    3) Put it to the people to decide in a referendum whether they want to remain in the EU on the best terms we can get.

    That is the reality. There is nothing else - and the only party which is being dishonest about it is UKIP, who witter on about giving the people a choice and then do everything in their power to sabotage that choice.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    isam said:

    Which party would someone who wanted out of the EU, believed in Grammar Schools, didn't agree with the amount of foreign aid we give, and wanted lower taxes vote for?

    The Conservatives, who don't agree with any of those proposals, Labour, who vehemently disagree, or the LDs who are even less open to them?

    You don't think the Conservatives want lower taxes?

    I think all governments want lower taxes. They also all want higher spending.

    The question - really - is whether the party believes in "the magic money tree" or not.

    And there, I would suggest UKIP is just as bad as the Labour Party. (And as bad as the LibDems will be as soon as they are removed from power and can happily make all the promises they used to make...)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Isn't Cameron (as heir-to-Blair) essentially a Europhile?

    No, Blair was really enthusiastic about Europe, but he was stymied by Brown, the hostility of the British public and his own cowardice.

    Cameron simply doesn't appear to be that interested. He'd rather the issue just went away.

    Come to think of it, given the relative failure on the deficit, which was supposed to be the number one priority of a Cameron government, the complete disappearance of the Big Society and the otherwise admirable way in which Cameron has allowed cabinet colleagues to do their own thing**, it's really not clear what Cameron is interested in.

    .
    I should imagine he'd say that he just approaches things pragmatically.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Isn't Cameron (as heir-to-Blair) essentially a Europhile?

    No, Blair was really enthusiastic about Europe, but he was stymied by Brown, the hostility of the British public and his own cowardice.

    Cameron simply doesn't appear to be that interested. He'd rather the issue just went away.

    Come to think of it, given the relative failure on the deficit, which was supposed to be the number one priority of a Cameron government, the complete disappearance of the Big Society and the otherwise admirable way in which Cameron has allowed cabinet colleagues to do their own thing**, it's really not clear what Cameron is interested in.

    ** Take for example a minister like Gove. One gets the impression that Gove is implementing his own policies as Education secretary, whereas when Blair was PM you had the strong feeling that all his cabinet - except the Treasury - were following a script written in Number 10.
    I think, Mr. Me, that Cameron is interested in being Prime Minister. That's it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    As for the EU, I think Cameron is being dishonest in pretending he can, if returned in 2015, negotiate any meaningful reform by 2017.

    Well, no-one ever claimed it was going to be easy, and he might be over-optimistic.

    So, rather than accusing him of dishonesty, why not face reality? There are three choices:

    1) The Labour/LibDem/UKIP way: do nothing, except give in to ever-closer union. At least when Labour and the LibDems work towards that end, they are being honest and consistent.

    2) Attempt renegotiation. If that succeeds, great, if it doesn't, there is always option 3:

    3) Put it to the people to decide in a referendum whether they want to remain in the EU on the best terms we can get.

    That is the reality. There is nothing else - and the only party which is being dishonest about it is UKIP, who witter on about giving the people a choice and then do everything in their power to sabotage that choice.
    There's a fourth alternative, which is to maximise the political representation of people who are committed to leaving the EU. These will be mainly, but not exclusively, UKIP.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    As for the EU, I think Cameron is being dishonest in pretending he can, if returned in 2015, negotiate any meaningful reform by 2017.

    Well, no-one ever claimed it was going to be easy, and he might be over-optimistic.

    So, rather than accusing him of dishonesty, why not face reality? There are three choices:

    1) The Labour/LibDem/UKIP way: do nothing, except give in to ever-closer union. At least when Labour and the LibDems work towards that end, they are being honest and consistent.

    2) Attempt renegotiation. If that succeeds, great, if it doesn't, there is always option 3:

    3) Put it to the people to decide in a referendum whether they want to remain in the EU on the best terms we can get.

    That is the reality. There is nothing else - and the only party which is being dishonest about it is UKIP, who witter on about giving the people a choice and then do everything in their power to sabotage that choice.
    They're all bonker fruitcake batshit crazy madmen Richard. The good news is that the more you insult them the more likely they are to vote for you.

    Well that seems to be Cameron's plan anyway.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Pulpstar said:

    New Ladbrokes market - Sherwood (Con maj = 214)

    Lab 1/3
    Con 2/1
    UKIP 50/1
    LD 100/1

    Almost the same odds as CLegg in Hallam where he has a 15000 majority (1/4 rather than 1/3)
    That fact in itself speaks volumes.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    New Ladbrokes market - Stockton South (Con maj = 332)

    Lab 1/3
    Con 2/1
    UKIP 66/1
    LD 100/1
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    New Ladbrokes market - Lancaster and Fleetwood (Con maj = 333)

    Lab 1/7
    Con 4/1
    Grn 100/1
    UKIP 100/1
    LD 100/1
  • BobaFett said:

    Nice to see. As for Lord Kinnock he has got form on saying inappropriate things – old enough to know better.

    Old enough, but not intelligent enough.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    England at the end of the first over 0 for 2. Kulasakera on a hat-trick at the beginning of his next!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    BobaFett said:

    Sadiq Khan MP ‏@SadiqKhan 10m
    Profuse apologies to @EricPickles – I have spoken to him to apologise & am sorry. Inappropriate tweet.

    Eric Pickles ‏@EricPickles 3m
    @SadiqKhan: Profuse apologies to @EricPickles – I have spoken to him to apologise & am sorry. Inappropriate tweet.” Apology accepted

    Remarkably amicable and grown up behaviour by both parties imho.

    Nice to see. As for Lord Kinnock he has got form on saying inappropriate things – old enough to know better.

    'Nice to see' indeed - Is Neil Kinnock the 'new' Prince Phillip of the Labour party ; )
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2014

    As for the EU, I think Cameron is being dishonest in pretending he can, if returned in 2015, negotiate any meaningful reform by 2017.

    Well, no-one ever claimed it was going to be easy, and he might be over-optimistic.

    So, rather than accusing him of dishonesty, why not face reality? There are three choices:

    1) The Labour/LibDem/UKIP way: do nothing, except give in to ever-closer union. At least when Labour and the LibDems work towards that end, they are being honest and consistent.

    2) Attempt renegotiation. If that succeeds, great, if it doesn't, there is always option 3:

    3) Put it to the people to decide in a referendum whether they want to remain in the EU on the best terms we can get.

    That is the reality. There is nothing else - and the only party which is being dishonest about it is UKIP, who witter on about giving the people a choice and then do everything in their power to sabotage that choice.
    You haven't said it yet today, but usually by now when slagging off UKIP voters for not voting for someone that believes in nothing that they do, and is opposed/will do anything to prevent the thing they want most, you say " This will be the only chance in 40 odd years for a referendum"

    Why would that be?

    Why, if Miliband wins in 2015 wouldn't a Conservative PM in 2020, who actually wants to leave the EU, offer a referendum?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Sean_F said:

    There's a fourth alternative, which is to maximise the political representation of people who are committed to leaving the EU. These will be mainly, but not exclusively, UKIP.

    If you're prepared to wait many years or decades, maybe.

    Still, if that is the plan, why are UKIP working to put Labour MPs into parliament? That reduces the Eurosceptic/Europhobic representation in parliament.

    If UKIP really wanted to do what you say, they'd stand down in marginal constituencies where there's a strongly Eurosceptic MP and urge their supporters to vote for him or her (usually that would a Conservative like James Wharton, but there are a few Eurosceptic Labour MPs they could also assist).
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    New Ladbrokes market - Amber Valley (Con maj = 536)

    Lab 1/3
    Con 2/1
    UKIP 50/1
    LD 100/1
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited March 2014
    New Ladbrokes market - Waveney (Con maj = 769)

    Lab 1/5
    Con 3/1
    UKIP 50/1
    LD 100/1
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2014

    AndyJS said:

    17% of current UKIP supporters voted LibDem in 2010? Really? Does this not strike anyone else as a little odd?

    No because in areas like the south-west the LDs get a lot of support from people who are actually pretty Eurosceptic. They vote LD because they don't like the Tories and Labour don't have much chance of winning many seats in the region.
    OK, that makes sense, I am surprised that the number is so high, though. Twice as many Lib Dems going to UKIP as Labour supporters does seem to fit.
    But that's probably explained by the basic movement of votes at present: there's obviously a generalised flow of votes to Labour (from various sources) and away from the LDs (to various sources) which makes those figures more explicable.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2014
    isam said:

    Why, if Miliband wins in 2015 wouldn't a Conservative PM in 2020, who actually wants to leave the EU, offer a referendum?

    Why would there be a Conservative PM in 2020? Certainly, Ed Miliband will be hugely unpopular if (God forbid) he ever becomes PM, but in that scenario the right would be even more divided, and Ed M might well get re-elected despite being an unmitigated disaster.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    isam said:

    As for the EU, I think Cameron is being dishonest in pretending he can, if returned in 2015, negotiate any meaningful reform by 2017.

    Well, no-one ever claimed it was going to be easy, and he might be over-optimistic.

    So, rather than accusing him of dishonesty, why not face reality? There are three choices:

    1) The Labour/LibDem/UKIP way: do nothing, except give in to ever-closer union. At least when Labour and the LibDems work towards that end, they are being honest and consistent.

    2) Attempt renegotiation. If that succeeds, great, if it doesn't, there is always option 3:

    3) Put it to the people to decide in a referendum whether they want to remain in the EU on the best terms we can get.

    That is the reality. There is nothing else - and the only party which is being dishonest about it is UKIP, who witter on about giving the people a choice and then do everything in their power to sabotage that choice.
    You haven't said it yet today, but usually by now when slagging off UKIP voters for not voting for someone that believes in nothing that they do, and is opposed/will do anything to prevent the thing they want most, you say " This will be the only chance in 40 odd years for a referendum"

    Why would that be?

    Why, if Miliband wins in 2015 wouldn't a Conservative PM in 2020, who actually wants to leave the EU, offer a referendum?
    If UK (or rUK) goes on messing about re IN/OUT for that long, won't our partners get fed up and throw us out?
  • Sadiq Khan MP ‏@SadiqKhan 10m
    Profuse apologies to @EricPickles – I have spoken to him to apologise & am sorry. Inappropriate tweet.

    Eric Pickles ‏@EricPickles 3m
    @SadiqKhan: Profuse apologies to @EricPickles – I have spoken to him to apologise & am sorry. Inappropriate tweet.” Apology accepted

    Remarkably amicable and grown up behaviour by both parties imho.

    They would learn better if they came on here...

  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    New Ladbrokes market - Swansea West (Lab maj = 504)

    Lab 1/16
    LD 10/1
    Con 25/1
    PC 100/1
    UKIP 100/1
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    New Ladbrokes market - Cardiff North (Con maj = 194)

    Lab 1/4
    Con 11/4
    PC 100/1
    UKIP 100/1
    LD 100/1

    That is quite possibly the most nailed-on Labour gain from the Tories anywhere imo. The incumbent MP is standing down, and it's a place which saw a massive Labour upsurge in the last Welsh Assembly election.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Sean_F said:

    There's a fourth alternative, which is to maximise the political representation of people who are committed to leaving the EU. These will be mainly, but not exclusively, UKIP.

    If you're prepared to wait many years or decades, maybe.

    Still, if that is the plan, why are UKIP working to put Labour MPs into parliament? That reduces the Eurosceptic/Europhobic representation in parliament.

    If UKIP really wanted to do what you say, they'd stand down in marginal constituencies where there's a strongly Eurosceptic MP and urge their supporters to vote for him or her (usually that would a Conservative like James Wharton, but there are a few Eurosceptic Labour MPs they could also assist).
    Farage has said he would be open to that already this year on BBC
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    isam said:

    Farage has said he would be open to that already this year on BBC

    So why doesn't he do it? It doesn't require consent from anyone else.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    Sadiq Khan MP ‏@SadiqKhan 10m
    Profuse apologies to @EricPickles – I have spoken to him to apologise & am sorry. Inappropriate tweet.

    Eric Pickles ‏@EricPickles 3m
    @SadiqKhan: Profuse apologies to @EricPickles – I have spoken to him to apologise & am sorry. Inappropriate tweet.” Apology accepted

    Remarkably amicable and grown up behaviour by both parties imho.

    They would learn better if they came on here...

    Now where is the public apology from Kinnock? He is the one who started this - and should be made to grovel for a completely unacceptable comment.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    As for the EU, I think Cameron is being dishonest in pretending he can, if returned in 2015, negotiate any meaningful reform by 2017.

    Well, no-one ever claimed it was going to be easy, and he might be over-optimistic.

    So, rather than accusing him of dishonesty, why not face reality? There are three choices:

    1) The Labour/LibDem/UKIP way: do nothing, except give in to ever-closer union. At least when Labour and the LibDems work towards that end, they are being honest and consistent.

    2) Attempt renegotiation. If that succeeds, great, if it doesn't, there is always option 3:

    3) Put it to the people to decide in a referendum whether they want to remain in the EU on the best terms we can get.

    That is the reality. There is nothing else - and the only party which is being dishonest about it is UKIP, who witter on about giving the people a choice and then do everything in their power to sabotage that choice.
    Is there not a deceit, a dishonesty, in pretending you can do something when you know you can't? If Cameron doesn't know he cannot in less than two years negotiate a change in the way the EU works, which would entail a reversal of a fundamental principle of the thing dating back to the Treaty of Rome, he must be stupid, which I don't believe he is.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2014

    isam said:

    Why, if Miliband wins in 2015 wouldn't a Conservative PM in 2020, who actually wants to leave the EU, offer a referendum?

    Why would there be a Conservative PM in 2020? Certainly, Ed Miliband will be hugely unpopular if (God forbid) he ever becomes PM, but in that scenario the right would be even more divided, and Ed M might well get re-elected despite being an unmitigated disaster.
    There may not be, but there probably is more chance than there is in 2015

    Either way, I never understand where you get the "last chance for a referendum in a generation" line from. Who says so?

    UKIP voters know that voting Cameron will mean compromising almost everything they believe in to give a mandate to someone who actively dislikes them, and wants to prevent everything they desire

    You're a sensible guy, you must know something about human nature, and that we aren't going to do that

    Five years down the line, an unpopular Miliband govt losing to a BOO Tory leader, possibly with Kipper MPs in a coalition/supporting role is more likely than no referendum for years
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Danny565 said:

    New Ladbrokes market - Cardiff North (Con maj = 194)

    Lab 1/4
    Con 11/4
    PC 100/1
    UKIP 100/1
    LD 100/1

    That is quite possibly the most nailed-on Labour gain from the Tories anywhere imo. The incumbent MP is standing down, and it's a place which saw a massive Labour upsurge in the last Welsh Assembly election.
    Not that I necessarily disagree with you, but two possible sources for a surprise Conservative hold - beyond an election campaign meltdown by Labour - are whether there is demographic change in the seat that favours the Conservatives, and if perceived failures of the Labour government in Wales reduce their vote at the 2015GE.
  • As for the EU, I think Cameron is being dishonest in pretending he can, if returned in 2015, negotiate any meaningful reform by 2017.

    Well, no-one ever claimed it was going to be easy, and he might be over-optimistic.

    So, rather than accusing him of dishonesty, why not face reality? There are three choices:

    1) The Labour/LibDem/UKIP way: do nothing, except give in to ever-closer union. At least when Labour and the LibDems work towards that end, they are being honest and consistent.

    2) Attempt renegotiation. If that succeeds, great, if it doesn't, there is always option 3:

    3) Put it to the people to decide in a referendum whether they want to remain in the EU on the best terms we can get.

    That is the reality. There is nothing else - and the only party which is being dishonest about it is UKIP, who witter on about giving the people a choice and then do everything in their power to sabotage that choice.
    Richard

    You've had it explained to you as recently as yesterday why UKIPpers - justifiably in my view, but at least not capriciously or irrationally - wholly disbelieve Cameron's promise of a referendum.

    You've said yourself upthread there is no prospect of terms being improved.

    Cameron has said on the record he will not leave the EU, and his proposed referendum does not bind him to do anything.

    You therefore know perfectly well why no UKIP supporter buys the Cameron offer of a renegotiation followed by a vote in 2017. The former can be seen not to be happening. The latter either will not, or if it did, will not be acted upon. On balance, Cameron is lying.

    You understand this UKIPper view perfectly well. Why are you pretending not to?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2014

    Is there not a deceit, a dishonesty, in pretending you can do something when you know you can't? If Cameron doesn't know he cannot in less than two years negotiate a change in the way the EU works, which would entail a reversal of a fundamental principle of the thing dating back to the Treaty of Rome, he must be stupid, which I don't believe he is.

    He will certainly get something. How much remains to be seen.

    You're suggesting he should give up without even trying.

    Fair enough, but that is an argument for an In/Out referendum as soon as possible, to settle whether we want to accept the current deal as it stands or not. Since we can't have a referendum in this parliament, as our LibDem friends are not keen even if the Conservatives all agreed with you that it's not worth trying to improve things, the next best option is what Cameron and the whole party are committed to: a referendum in the next parliament.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Sean_F said:

    There's a fourth alternative, which is to maximise the political representation of people who are committed to leaving the EU. These will be mainly, but not exclusively, UKIP.

    If you're prepared to wait many years or decades, maybe.

    Still, if that is the plan, why are UKIP working to put Labour MPs into parliament? That reduces the Eurosceptic/Europhobic representation in parliament.

    If UKIP really wanted to do what you say, they'd stand down in marginal constituencies where there's a strongly Eurosceptic MP and urge their supporters to vote for him or her (usually that would a Conservative like James Wharton, but there are a few Eurosceptic Labour MPs they could also assist).
    As it happens, I think it would be sensible for UKIP not to run against the 70 or so Conservative MPs, and the handful of Labour MPs, who wish to leave the EU.

    But, that leaves 550 or so constituencies that should be contested. Running against Conservative MPs who wish to remain in the EU is perfectly sensible.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2014


    You've said yourself upthread there is no prospect of terms being improved.

    No I haven't. I've said it won't be easy. I've also said previously that I think this is the best chance we'll get in a generation.

    Of course we shouldn't have started from here. It is Brown and Blair, not Cameron, who screwed up. He has the incredibly difficult task of trying to undo at least some of the damage. It is quite extraordinary that the Kippers blame him for the mess the Labour Party got us into to, and in revenge are trying to put that very same Labour Party back into power.

    Cameron has said on the record he will not leave the EU, and his proposed referendum does not bind him to do anything.

    No he hasn't. In any case he wouldn't have the choice. An Out vote would mean we'd be Out, probably under a different leader, but 100% certainly out.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    @Sean_F - Well, there you are. I will eat my words about UKIP being irrational if they do as you suggest. I expect my words to remain uneaten!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    I feel poor old Richard Nabavi's pain, I really do!

    He's absolutely right, though: if you put an EU In Out referendum at the top of your political priorities, the only way you are going to stand a chance of getting it any time soon is to vote Tory in 2015. You have a clear choice on that. There is no way on God's earth that Cameron will back out of that commitment if he wins next year.

    The problem, I think, is that for many UKIP voters it's not really about Europe at all.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    New Ladbrokes market - Chesterfield (Lab maj = 549)

    Lab 1/16
    LD 8/1
    UKIP 100/1
    Con 100/1
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Is there not a deceit, a dishonesty, in pretending you can do something when you know you can't? If Cameron doesn't know he cannot in less than two years negotiate a change in the way the EU works, which would entail a reversal of a fundamental principle of the thing dating back to the Treaty of Rome, he must be stupid, which I don't believe he is.

    He will certainly get something. How much remains to be seen.

    You're suggesting he should give up without even trying.

    Fair enough, but that is an argument for an In/Out referendum as soon as possible, to settle whether we want to accept the current deal as it stands or not. Since we can't have a referendum in this parliament, as our LibDem friends are not keen even if the Conservatives all agreed with you that it's not worth trying to improve things, the next best option is what Cameron and the whole party are committed to: a referendum in the next parliament.
    Fair go, Mr. N, but I might be more impressed with Cameron if that is what he came out and said. He hasn't though, has he?

    Please remember I am not fixated on the EU. I came into this discussion because of your assertion that people who hated Cameron did so irrationally. I loathe and despise him not because of his stance on the EU, that just serves to illustrate his character.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited March 2014
    Danny565 said:

    New Ladbrokes market - Cardiff North (Con maj = 194)

    Lab 1/4
    Con 11/4
    PC 100/1
    UKIP 100/1
    LD 100/1

    That is quite possibly the most nailed-on Labour gain from the Tories anywhere imo. The incumbent MP is standing down, and it's a place which saw a massive Labour upsurge in the last Welsh Assembly election.
    Result 2011 - Cardiff North

    Lab 16,384
    Con 14,602
    PC 1,850
    LD 1,595

    That is still a pretty huge CON vote. I'd be a tad nervous at backing LAB as short as 1/4 in a seat like that.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2014
    @HurstLlama - Politicians have confidence and self-belief. They have to be optimistic and believe they can change things, otherwise they'd have given up long before they even got selected for their first hopeless attempt to get into parliament in some unwinnable seat. Even more, they have to be positive in what they say in public. No politician is going to say 'Well, I'll give it a go, but I don't hold out much hope'. What's more, it wouldn't exactly be a good negotiating stance, would it?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2014

    I feel poor old Richard Nabavi's pain, I really do!

    He's absolutely right, though: if you put an EU In Out referendum at the top of your political priorities, the only way you are going to stand a chance of getting it any time soon is to vote Tory in 2015. You have a clear choice on that. There is no way on God's earth that Cameron will back out of that commitment if he wins next year.

    The problem, I think, is that for many UKIP voters it's not really about Europe at all.

    The problem , I guess is UKIPs rise in support isn't necessarily fuelled in the main by an "out of the EU or bust mentality"

    Richard knows this but pretends not to realise it to suit his argument

    If Nick Griffin agreed to hold a referendum over whether there should be either a Black Mayor of London or Black Head of the Met at all times, I wonder if Doreen Lawrence would vote BNP.

    If she didn't can we say she doesn't want black people to be represented in high office?
This discussion has been closed.