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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The post Nick v Nigel debate reaction
My own feeling is that the real loser from tonight is David Cameron and The Tories, today and next week, Nigel Farage has been given one hour to hoover up the Euro-sceptic vote.
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Tory supporters:
Farage 70%
Clegg 20%
Labour supporters:
Clegg 51%
Farage 42%
UKIP supporters:
Farage 93%
LD supporters:
Clegg 77%
Farage 20%
Clegg won't mind 'losing', if he can gain a few points come May he'll consider it job done, and who won the debate won't actually impact things that much, it just matters if a few people are shifted in his favour as a result.
It's a victory for Salmond.
( well you know it's only a matter of time until one of the nats says it )
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/mar/26/nigel-farage-vs-nick-clegg-the-debate-for-europe-live#block-53333857e4b07edc52cb9748
How many people in the UK even knew this debate was taking place - let alone were interested enough to watch it? A few thousand maybe?
I gave Nigel the win by 60/40; but then thats just me.
That can only be seen as a win for Farage.
And slagging off British food and cars - annoyed me.
What should put the fear of god into those lib dems that are still left is the prospect of calamity Clegg in the 2015 debates where he will be put on the spot repeatedly for "no more broken promises" and which of his policies and manifesto promises of his can be trusted or are red lines. If he does this badly on Europe then it's a very safe bet voters will not be having any 'Cleggasms' his Blair lite delivery produced the last time.
That said Farage was also saying all the things that the tory base would dearly wish the Cast Iron chicken Cameron would say which is also reflected in the polling. You have to feel sorry for tories having to cheer on the missing fop. Cammie wants to stay IN Europe in case they have somehow managed to forget. It's as funny as when Cammie linked the floods to climate change and they got very upset indeed for having to be reminded what their leader believes.
The Labour spinner on Sky sounded utterly pathetic and out of his depth.
Whoever thought it was a good idea to put him on needs a good kick up the arse.
Jon Ashworth is a pillock.
Money talks. UKIP cut from 6/4 to 11/10 at the bookies to win most votes at the Euro elections.
can't really see that, status quo I suspect. It will help UKIP with the Euros but the GE will remain on the economics.
The gay marriage position is not one I subscribe to, and abolishing it would be a petty, retrograde step.
Swiss Cottage is a big roundabout - you'd only ever say that you lived there if the alternative was Kilburn, but even then I'd go for Kilburn.
Well, I didn't watch it and there is of course a second debate next week so as we discovered in 2010 instant post-first debate analysis and polls can be hugely misleading.
What will be interesting to see is the lessons the two participants learn from tonight with a view to next week's exchanges.
Farage actually said that religious bodies, Church, Synagogue, Mosque, are against SSM at present and most would be against ceremonies conducted on their premises. Until this is sorted out, said Farage, UKIP would consider thinking again. He said nothing about about abolishing SSM carried out in a civil ceremony.
Farage 1301
Clegg 557
Given the sizeable Eurosceptic vote, the 57-36 score isn't bad. I think he's capable of doing better in a week's time.
Sky News just ran a piece showing Clegg refusing to look at Farage, while Farage was looking at him directly, asking questions
Good name for a pber.
LOL
But, actually, they both won.
Because they were aiming at different audiences. Farage was pitching to the 70% of Conservatives who are Eurosceptic, and may well have picked up quite a few votes. Clegg was pitching to the 30% of Conservatives who are Europhilic and the 50% of Labour-ites who are likewise: he may also have picked up a few votes.
Farage was very strong on Europe; Clegg was poor, and missed a number of opportunities.
Farage was weak when he moved away from Europe. Gay marriage and Russia/Putin are areas where UKIP can only lose votes and he needs to stay on message, otherwise the danger is that he'll be goaded into saying something pretty dumb someday.
BREAKING: FARAGE WINS. Nigel beats Nick 57-36 - @YouGov/Sun poll: http://bit.ly/1p7HCRv
No, mainly by people that listen and think.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-26754300
Lose lose situation for Labour over Welsh NHS.
*chortle*
At least she turned up though, unlike the fop chicken.
Yet another non-event that PBers get excited about but normal people barely notice.
We appear to have reverted to the old habit of 'kle4 and Mickpork cannot agree on semantic definitions' on this one.
OGH: "It is amongst this group where you can get the longer odds and our friend Shadsy has just tightened the 8/1 that I put £100 on in one seat to 4/1. I’m not revealing which one because I hope to get good value from other bookies."
I fancy Mike was referring here to his bet on the LibDems holding Brent Central which Ladbrokes do indeed have on offer at 4/1.
My own feeling is that the real loser from tonight is David Cameron and The Tories, today and next week, Nigel Farage has been given one hour to hoover up the Euro-sceptic vote
I would be a lot more concerned as a Conservative if the elections were closer than 8 weeks away and if the debate were seen by a substantial portion of the population.
Clegg's an idiot. He thought yet more public exposure would somehow negate his toxicity with the voters. It hasn't and it won't. He's been doing his amusing radio phone-in for all this time in a feeble effort to repeat Blair's 'masochism' strategy. Yet he he somehow hasn't realised it didn't work for Blair or that the lib dems have been flatlining on 10% since late 2010 and show no sign whatsoever of 'surging' away from that.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 6m
Bookies make it 11/10 that UKIP win a seat at the General Election.
13/8 UNIBET Yes
4/6 Ladbrokes No
This time on the Telegraph poll, Farage is now leading by 80% v Clegg's 20%.
The implication when people make arguments about the 'non-event' status of these things is that this is apparently a shock, as though political debates would be expected to have a direct impact on people in a major way and thus, gosh, what a let down. Of course it is non event if you assess it on those terms. Assess it on the terms of what it actually was and was intended to be - a little watched but, its participant's hope, possibly much talked about event which helps set a narrative and generates some easy headlines and soundbites - and on those terms? We shall have to wait for the full assessment, but given nearly all political events are only of interest to political wonks like ourselves, it did the job well enough
There's nothing I can particularly take issue with in the remainder of your post.
The real danger for the Conservatives and Labour is if Mr Clegg's gambit pays out, and the pro-EU voters do treat the LDs as "the party of in" when they cast their EU Parliament votes.
The poor performance of Kipper MEPs in terms of voting and sleaze should be highlighted. I find it hard to believe that Farages wife is preparing papers at midnight for Nigel, so he can not bother speaking or voting on them the next day.