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Something to track over the next few weeks – politicalbetting.com

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  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 468
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    Off topic, cost of living news. Southern Water have just notified me that they are raising my bill (and everybody else's) by 46.7%. On the email, they didn't actually quote the increase - just said prices are increasing - and it was only by going on their website that I found the 46.7% figure. Is this the norm, I wonder? I knew they were going up, but didn't realise it was that hefty.

    Southern are going up more than the rest, 46.7% this year and 53% by 2030. Mine is up by 21% this year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yd9qzx79go

    I'm not sure what happens if inflation increases beyond predictions.

    I just received the annual water bill chase up letter for someone I have never heard of, at my address. I have lived here for more than 10 years, and I have no idea who he is. They were informed years ago.
    Ofwat should forbid any price rises above inflation and also insist on the minimum standards and repairs. By law.Any Executive in charge failing to abide by the law is prosecuted.
    And if the water company goes bust, then all that happens is that bond holders will have to take a haircut.

    Hmmm. Did you ever deal with Macquarie - the vampire kangaroo?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,258
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Scott_xP said:
    We are not hearing so much at the moment from all those republicans who would like to abolish the monarchy and have an elected head of state on the American model. Whatever happened to them?
    I am an advocate of a republic - I simply so not feel it is right in the 21st Century to have a head of state as someone who dropped out of the right vagina first. I am not sure of what to replace it with but are people that bothered in France? Or Germany? Seem to work ok.
    I am sure President Le Pen will work out fine for France in 2 years time
    Here's a rope. I am happy to help you out of these rabbit holes.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,156

    "I'm not a huge fan of Ukraine. It's a very very corrupt country," says Nigel Farage.

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1896500522242506979

    I cannot think of a policy better pitched to lose you all your momentum and support than this.

    There are 4-5% who are Conservative/Reform floating voters. Attitudes towards Putin certainly give the Conservatives the opportunity to capture that vote.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,236

    carnforth said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting perspective

    @Simon_Nixon

    Europeans underestimated the degree to which an Ukraine surrender is central to both Trump’s economic and foreign policy. That makes their attempt to frustrate his goals with their own peace plan even higher risk.

    https://x.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1896470145293590870

    Please can one of the PB pedants tell me how some people are pronouncing Ukraine? Is it Ookraine? Several times lately I've seen text like that above which has * an Ukraine *.

    Good morning, everyone.
    Morning. The use of "an" is to do with the initial sound of a word not the initial letter. There is an epidemic of people who don't grasp this. I doubt your writer thinks it's pronounce "ookraine", they just see a 'U' and think it means they should write "an".

    In their defence, pronunciations change. Thus, we may still write "an heriditary peerage" but 100 years ago we might also have written "an hotel".
    Some of us still do write ‘an hotel’ on the rare occasions we write about hotels.
    Many thanks to all who replied to my question about the pronunciation of Ukraine. Very interesting info/takes.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,258
    Has anyone heard from Brave Sir Boris on the events of Friday?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,156

    Nick Ferrari holding Farage's feet to the ambient radiator.

    Farage critical of Zelensky, his attire and his mandate. Wants an election now. Thought he deserved the beating on Friday. The fight was always going to happen and Trump will get "good reconciliation".

    State visit must go ahead.

    Said the Crimea is not going back to Ukraine. It is a very corrupt country.

    Very positive on Mandelson's agenda over Ukraine.

    Keen to push the agenda against Hamas and immigration. Denied stats on immigration are accurate.

    Pleased with Trump's overnight intervention on NFTs.

    TBF Farage came out swinging for Trump.

    Perhaps another reason to be optimistic. This screws Farage and Reform's chances of breaking through from a minor (if undeniably influential) side show into a Government in waiting. Even many Brexit supporters are very unhappy with the way Trump and the right in general have treated Ukraine.
    I hope so - stopping Reform would be a Good Thing.

    My problem remains this: most of the target voters don't really care that much about Ukraine vs their town being shit their bills being sky high and a general sense of being left behind and out of control.

    Trump is going to make sizeable changes to the way the US is governed. Farage supports Trump. Farage says "we can make sizeable changes to the way the UK is governed".

    Ukraine won't come into it.
    I have been busy this morning and just read your post and @Mexicanpete's

    Farage only confirms what a danger he is to the western alliance and peace in Ukraine seemingly seeking an abject and unjust surrender by Zelenskyy

    Farage sickens me, as does Trump and his bullies, and no matter our political differences we should all unite to back Zelenskyy and Ukraine and reject the far right, whether it is Farage, Trump, Vance, Musk and most US Republicans and of course Putin

    I do fear you may be right in your comments on Farage, but every decent UK citizen needs to repudiate his obnoxious views
    We're just as trapped inside a morality bubble as all the Trumpers are on Twitter. A different bubble where we're aware the other bubble exists, have little concept what life inside that other one is like but utterly convinced we're right, they're wrong.

    And vice versa.

    As the Manics once sang, Freedom of Speech won't Feed My Children. Principle is a Good thing. But only so far, and with the understanding that principles are not universal - only we we choose to make them so AND accept them as such.

    Its the same with the Musk fury that some people have. They screech on about how he is a Nazi because they're angry. Then get really really angry when people like me say no he isn't...
    However, you're much more likely to be able to feed your children in a place that has free speech than in a placed that does not.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,063
    Battlebus said:

    DavidL said:

    Looks like the Government is trying to ban new leasehold flats again. Good news I think.

    We had a feudal system in Scotland which involved the payment of feu duty to "superiors" by the owners of the dominium utile (it was a weird collation of medieval English and Latin). This was a fixed amount and by the 1970s inflation had turned it into more of a nuisance than anything else so the system was abolished. I think its long past time England did the same.
    Then the peppercorn rent. Once came across a property in Tunbridge Wells where the peppercorn was replaced by a red rose on Midsummer's day.
    A famous one in Scotland related to the MacIntyre and Campbell clans - In order to reside peacefully at Glen Noe, the MacIntyres were required to provide the chief of Clan Campbell with a snowball on midsummer’s day and a fatted white calf for Christmas. The white calf was to be slain and eaten by members of both clans to show that no animosity still existed between its members.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,017
    Don't get me started on "the Ukraine" :lol:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,017

    "I'm not a huge fan of Ukraine. It's a very very corrupt country," says Nigel Farage.

    https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1896500522242506979

    I cannot think of a policy better pitched to lose you all your momentum and support than this.

    Hmmm, and I suppose he thinks Russia is NOT corrupt? :)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,170
    edited 12:36PM
    Nigelb said:

    What is Mandelson up to? You cannot square what the Prime Minister said this morning with this. What is the Government’s actual position?

    Our man in DC should be securing US protection for our brave Ukrainian allies, not telling President Zelensky what to do.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1896251905338417370

    Two possibilities

    - playing divide and conquer in concert with No.10
    - yachts

    EDIT

    - doesn't respect/listen to No.10
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,661
    Apparently nearly 600 migrants crossed the channel yesterday

    Now that is a problem for Starmer and Cooper
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,403
    Nigelb said:

    What is Mandelson up to? You cannot square what the Prime Minister said this morning with this. What is the Government’s actual position?

    Our man in DC should be securing US protection for our brave Ukrainian allies, not telling President Zelensky what to do.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1896251905338417370

    Who could have predicted that putting the most political of actors into a non-political role would turn out badly?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,222

    Why have equity markets not reacted to the growing chasm between the US and the rest of the West? Surely this will have an impact on big corporates down the line with some pretty horrible edge cases plausible too.

    Much of the world is at the

    “WTF? WTAF? WTAFF? This is all a sketch, right?” stage.

    When some hard, actual numbers hit, I think it will get very… interesting…. Very fast.
    Also much of the political, business, and media worlds are operating on an assumption of either "he doesn't mean what he says", or "someone will stop him", or "in 4 years time things will be back to normal." I think all of those assumptions are wrong. There's a sort of false consciousness where people are deluding themselves that things really aren't as bad as they seem.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,540

    carnforth said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting perspective

    @Simon_Nixon

    Europeans underestimated the degree to which an Ukraine surrender is central to both Trump’s economic and foreign policy. That makes their attempt to frustrate his goals with their own peace plan even higher risk.

    https://x.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1896470145293590870

    Please can one of the PB pedants tell me how some people are pronouncing Ukraine? Is it Ookraine? Several times lately I've seen text like that above which has * an Ukraine *.

    Good morning, everyone.
    Morning. The use of "an" is to do with the initial sound of a word not the initial letter. There is an epidemic of people who don't grasp this. I doubt your writer thinks it's pronounce "ookraine", they just see a 'U' and think it means they should write "an".

    In their defence, pronunciations change. Thus, we may still write "an heriditary peerage" but 100 years ago we might also have written "an hotel".
    Some of us still do write ‘an hotel’ on the rare occasions we write about hotels.
    Presumably Beth Rigby and Priti Patel write "an" before any word beginning with H?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,638
    The issue for Labour is the framing I keep seeing on social media/my friends: "Labour are useless...

    BUT the beaver introduction is a good idea
    BUT the leasehold ban is great
    BUT getting off gas into renewables more quickly is sensible
    BUT supporting Ukraine is the right thing to do
    BUT lower immigration and a high minimum wage is good for workers

    This is from a cohort that voted overwhelmingly for them. They need to somehow bin the assumption that they'll be useless.

    ... or is this fortuitous expectation management, after a hopelessly optimistic electorate in 2024?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,524

    Has anyone heard from Brave Sir Boris on the events of Friday?

    From Simon Hart's book, Ungovernable:-
    One of our new female whips described [Boris] as ‘like a foreskin, he always disappears when things get hard’.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,529

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Given the chance Tom Cruise is a magnificent actor

    Eg his performance as that crippled Vietnam vet in that war movie about a crippled Vietnam vet whose name escapes me because I have now had two tramadol to get me through this interminable Shanghai flight

    He’s superb in that. I guess he just got pigeon holed into making trillions in action movies and there are probably worse pigeon holes TBF

    And, unlike several megastar actors, he doesn't make you think "oh it's Tom Cruise" in every and any film he's in.
    Actually, he does.

    It’s just that for this kind of popcorn movie that’s exactly what you want.

    He’s 80s action man, but upgraded with the Empathy and Emotion modules installed.
    I must have him all wrong. In my head he is one of those actors who always plays the same character – not a bad thing in itself – but in his case it is a really annoying character. In my head, every Tom Cruise film is basically him playing the character he played in that film in which he was a sports agent. Cheeky, annoying, successful with the ladies, troubled relationship with father, some sort of emotional realisation 80% of the way through the film, still cheeky, still annoying. It’s a very hard character to like.
    But for this reason I have avoided Tom Cruise films for about 20 years. So my perceptions are probably drawn from very incomplete data.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,540

    Nigelb said:

    What is Mandelson up to? You cannot square what the Prime Minister said this morning with this. What is the Government’s actual position?

    Our man in DC should be securing US protection for our brave Ukrainian allies, not telling President Zelensky what to do.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1896251905338417370

    Two possibilities

    - playing divide and conquer in concert with No.10
    - yachts

    EDIT

    - doesn't respect/listen to No.10
    Oh, Mandy
    Well, you came and you spoke without thinking
    They should lock you away, oh, Mandy
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,017

    Leon said:

    Given the chance Tom Cruise is a magnificent actor

    Eg his performance as that crippled Vietnam vet in that war movie about a crippled Vietnam vet whose name escapes me because I have now had two tramadol to get me through this interminable Shanghai flight

    He’s superb in that. I guess he just got pigeon holed into making trillions in action movies and there are probably worse pigeon holes TBF

    He has also starred in some of the best science fiction films of the 2qst century. Minority Report, Edge of Tomorrow and Oblivion are all excellent
    "What Horatius said was 'How can a man die better, than facing fearful odds for the ashes of his fathers and the temples of his gods?'"
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,818
    Nigelb said:

    What is Mandelson up to? You cannot square what the Prime Minister said this morning with this. What is the Government’s actual position?

    Our man in DC should be securing US protection for our brave Ukrainian allies, not telling President Zelensky what to do.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1896251905338417370

    Of course you can. The whole point of Starmer appointing Mandelson was to enable him to spin, lie and misdirect on behalf of HMG to try and thread the Trump needle. I don't think it is sustainable but it is fairly clear what he is trying to do and why Starmer wants him there.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,907
    Making Mandelson the UK ambassador to the US may be Sir Keir's most cynical decision as pm
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,584
    edited 12:51PM
    MattW said:

    A good piece on the difficulties of military decoupling, written in an..err..vernacular style comprehensible to numpties, eg me.

    ‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’

    https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a lot of limbo and hoops to read the rest of it.
    Here's a summary of the crucial bit.

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,253
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    What is Mandelson up to? You cannot square what the Prime Minister said this morning with this. What is the Government’s actual position?

    Our man in DC should be securing US protection for our brave Ukrainian allies, not telling President Zelensky what to do.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1896251905338417370

    Davey is a fool, Mandy is doing exactly what the government has told him to do. He's not freewheeling out there, this is a strategy of getting Trump back around the table by any means necessary even if it means we've got the ambassador directly contradicting the PM.

    This is how diplomacy works and Davey is either naive or just plain stupid if he really believes that Mandy is out there dancing to his own tune.
    Davey might realise that, and is making the comment for political gain.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,614
    Anyone suggesting the president of an independent democracy be "removed" should be ashamed of themselves.

    This below, is substantially true, as the last couple of days comments from Ukrainian opposition leaders confirm.

    Few things those who now suggest removing Zelensky as an obstacle for peace need to understand.

    1. He represents consensus within Ukrainian society rejecting unfair, not durable, not backed up by adequate mechanisms "peace". The one which dooms Ukraine to further aggression, more destruction, suffering.

    2. Recent attacks have consolidated Ukrainians around him. People rally around the flag. They see these attacks as not attacks on Zelensky but on Ukraine. His ratings go up now. They have gone down gradually over the last three years reflecting the hard lot that he got with this God-awful war on his hands. Now, from the domestic politics standpoint, he should be grateful to the White House for boosting his standing.

    3. Thus, he would have easily won elections if they were to happen now. In a landslide. Even few weeks ago most people would have thought that this would be a difficult task for him (still was quite doable, though). So if they think that they can remove him through elections, they have done everything to undermine that plan.

    4. Even if one imagines that Zelensky is gone, to lose an election, the new president would continue the same course of action. There is no political space for someone to come power who would agree with a "peace" equaling capitulation. They could easily be an even less flexible leader...

    https://x.com/VolodymDubovyk/status/1896315060152365420
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,584

    A good piece on the difficulties of military decoupling, written in an..err..vernacular style comprehensible to numpties, eg me.

    ‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’

    https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    hush-kit is a really, really good site. A professional in the aviation industry I know is very fond of it, in the same way he is not fond of Air Forces Monthly and Aviation Week.

    (I also like Air Forces Monthly...)
    It's YouTubes are awful. They started off really good but then became silly and infrequent and I stopped watching years ago.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,614
    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    A good piece on the difficulties of military decoupling, written in an..err..vernacular style comprehensible to numpties, eg me.

    ‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’

    https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a lot of limbo and hoops to read the rest of it.
    Here's a summary of the crucial bit.

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)
    Next decade is going to be Tempestuous, then.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,848
    I can see Mandelson becoming a cult figure among the MAGA crowd in the US.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,258
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    What is Mandelson up to? You cannot square what the Prime Minister said this morning with this. What is the Government’s actual position?

    Our man in DC should be securing US protection for our brave Ukrainian allies, not telling President Zelensky what to do.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1896251905338417370

    Davey is a fool, Mandy is doing exactly what the government has told him to do. He's not freewheeling out there, this is a strategy of getting Trump back around the table by any means necessary even if it means we've got the ambassador directly contradicting the PM.

    This is how diplomacy works and Davey is either naive or just plain stupid if he really believes that Mandy is out there dancing to his own tune.
    That is quite likely true. However Ed is perfectly entitled to get some points off the Labour Government when their 4D chess strategy makes them look capricious
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,584
    ...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,258
    ...

    I can see Mandelson becoming a cult figure among the MAGA crowd in the US.

    I can't.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,170
    Cookie said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Given the chance Tom Cruise is a magnificent actor

    Eg his performance as that crippled Vietnam vet in that war movie about a crippled Vietnam vet whose name escapes me because I have now had two tramadol to get me through this interminable Shanghai flight

    He’s superb in that. I guess he just got pigeon holed into making trillions in action movies and there are probably worse pigeon holes TBF

    And, unlike several megastar actors, he doesn't make you think "oh it's Tom Cruise" in every and any film he's in.
    Actually, he does.

    It’s just that for this kind of popcorn movie that’s exactly what you want.

    He’s 80s action man, but upgraded with the Empathy and Emotion modules installed.
    I must have him all wrong. In my head he is one of those actors who always plays the same character – not a bad thing in itself – but in his case it is a really annoying character. In my head, every Tom Cruise film is basically him playing the character he played in that film in which he was a sports agent. Cheeky, annoying, successful with the ladies, troubled relationship with father, some sort of emotional realisation 80% of the way through the film, still cheeky, still annoying. It’s a very hard character to like.
    But for this reason I have avoided Tom Cruise films for about 20 years. So my perceptions are probably drawn from very incomplete data.
    That strongly suggests that you don’t like The Tom Cruise Stock Character.

    Which is fine. Personal taste etc.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,076
    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    A good piece on the difficulties of military decoupling, written in an..err..vernacular style comprehensible to numpties, eg me.

    ‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’

    https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a lot of limbo and hoops to read the rest of it.
    Here's a summary of the crucial bit.

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)
    Next decade is going to be Tempestuous, then.
    The decade after might be. Typhoon was 12 years from first flight to first operational squadron. Tempest isn't close to flying and these things haven't got any simpler or cheaper.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,258
    edited 1:17PM
    Cleverly on WATO.

    Critical of Starmer underspending on defence.

    Sarah beating him up in favour of Trump agenda.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,681
    edited 1:14PM

    I can see Mandelson becoming a cult figure among the MAGA crowd in the US.

    Him and his husband?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,614
    Tiny study (only 18 individuals), and not blinded, but a pretty wild result for one of the most aggressive cancers.
    Though there will be confounding factors (not least the ability to stick to the diet) there is a plausible mechanistic explanation, too.


    Successful application of dietary ketogenic metabolic therapy in patients with glioblastoma: a clinical study

    https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/nutrition/articles/10.3389/fnut.2024.1489812/full
    Introduction: Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) ranks as one of the most aggressive primary malignant tumor affecting the brain. The persistent challenge of treatment failure and high relapse rates in GBM highlights the need for new treatment approaches. Recent research has pivoted toward exploring alternative therapeutic methods, such as the ketogenic diet, for GBM.

    Methods: A total of 18 patients with GBM, 8 women and 10 men, aged between 34 and 75 years participated in a prospective study, examining the impact of ketogenic diet on tumor progression. The pool of patients originated from our hospital during the period from January 2016 until July 2021 and were followed until January 2024. As an assessment criterion, we set an optimistic target for adherence to the ketogenic diet beyond 6  months. We considered the therapeutic combination successful if the survival reached at least 3  years.

    Results: Among the 18 patients participating in the study, 6 adhered to the ketogenic diet for more than 6 months. Of these patients, one patient passed away 43 months after diagnosis, achieving a survival of 3 years; another passed away at 36 months, narrowly missing the 3-year survival mark; and one is still alive at 33 months post-diagnosis but has yet to reach the 3-year milestone and is, therefore, not included in the final survival rate calculation. The remaining 3 are also still alive, completing 84,43 and 44 months of life, respectively. Consequently, the survival rate among these patients is 4 out of 6, or 66.7%. Of the 12 patients who did not adhere to the diet, only one reached 36 months of survival, while the rest have died in an average time of 15.7 ± 6.7 months, with a 3-year survival rate of 8.3%. Comparing the survival rates of the two groups, we see that the difference is 58.3% (66.7% versus 8.3%) and is statistically significant with p < 0.05 (0.0114) and X2 = 6.409...</I>
  • viewcode said:

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)

    It would be 'brave' of the US to block UK use of our F-35s, considering how much British technology is in those aircraft. LockMart would have a complete and lengthy production shutdown if we retaliated with a ban on parts exports. The ejection seats on all F-35s, the lift fan on F-35Bs, and a whole bunch of smaller but still critical parts are sourced from the UK suppliers.

    But even the threat of this demonstrates why the Tempest program needs to be accelerated and why we're probably going to have to convert the RN's carriers to cats-and-traps at some point.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,102
    Sean_F said:

    Nick Ferrari holding Farage's feet to the ambient radiator.

    Farage critical of Zelensky, his attire and his mandate. Wants an election now. Thought he deserved the beating on Friday. The fight was always going to happen and Trump will get "good reconciliation".

    State visit must go ahead.

    Said the Crimea is not going back to Ukraine. It is a very corrupt country.

    Very positive on Mandelson's agenda over Ukraine.

    Keen to push the agenda against Hamas and immigration. Denied stats on immigration are accurate.

    Pleased with Trump's overnight intervention on NFTs.

    TBF Farage came out swinging for Trump.

    Perhaps another reason to be optimistic. This screws Farage and Reform's chances of breaking through from a minor (if undeniably influential) side show into a Government in waiting. Even many Brexit supporters are very unhappy with the way Trump and the right in general have treated Ukraine.
    I hope so - stopping Reform would be a Good Thing.

    My problem remains this: most of the target voters don't really care that much about Ukraine vs their town being shit their bills being sky high and a general sense of being left behind and out of control.

    Trump is going to make sizeable changes to the way the US is governed. Farage supports Trump. Farage says "we can make sizeable changes to the way the UK is governed".

    Ukraine won't come into it.
    I have been busy this morning and just read your post and @Mexicanpete's

    Farage only confirms what a danger he is to the western alliance and peace in Ukraine seemingly seeking an abject and unjust surrender by Zelenskyy

    Farage sickens me, as does Trump and his bullies, and no matter our political differences we should all unite to back Zelenskyy and Ukraine and reject the far right, whether it is Farage, Trump, Vance, Musk and most US Republicans and of course Putin

    I do fear you may be right in your comments on Farage, but every decent UK citizen needs to repudiate his obnoxious views
    We're just as trapped inside a morality bubble as all the Trumpers are on Twitter. A different bubble where we're aware the other bubble exists, have little concept what life inside that other one is like but utterly convinced we're right, they're wrong.

    And vice versa.

    As the Manics once sang, Freedom of Speech won't Feed My Children. Principle is a Good thing. But only so far, and with the understanding that principles are not universal - only we we choose to make them so AND accept them as such.

    Its the same with the Musk fury that some people have. They screech on about how he is a Nazi because they're angry. Then get really really angry when people like me say no he isn't...
    However, you're much more likely to be able to feed your children in a place that has free speech than in a placed that does not.
    Free speech is getting clattered in America. Not a single anti Trump comment at the Oscars.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 468
    Trump doesn't have a high opinion of Europe.
    We should spend less time worrying about Putin, and more time worrying about migrant rape gangs, drug lords, murderers, and people from mental institutions entering our Country - So that we don’t end up like Europe!

    https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114096104536926329
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,258
    biggles said:

    I can see Mandelson becoming a cult figure among the MAGA crowd in the US.

    Him and his husband?
    Aren't MAGA boyfriends normally chained up in the basement.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,233

    I can see Mandelson becoming a cult figure among the MAGA crowd in the US.

    More like c#unt figure atm.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,614
    edited 1:24PM
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    A good piece on the difficulties of military decoupling, written in an..err..vernacular style comprehensible to numpties, eg me.

    ‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’

    https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a lot of limbo and hoops to read the rest of it.
    Here's a summary of the crucial bit.

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)
    Next decade is going to be Tempestuous, then.
    The decade after might be. Typhoon was 12 years from first flight to first operational squadron. Tempest isn't close to flying and these things haven't got any simpler or cheaper.
    I'm talking about the development efforts, which are probably more important anyway, not the actual deployment.

    But test flight to deployment can be done a lot quicker than 12 years.
    The KF21* first test flight was in 2022; first deployment is planned next year. The entire order is expected to be delivered by 2032.

    *Developed for similar reasons.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,584

    Leon said:

    Given the chance Tom Cruise is a magnificent actor

    Eg his performance as that crippled Vietnam vet in that war movie about a crippled Vietnam vet whose name escapes me because I have now had two tramadol to get me through this interminable Shanghai flight

    He’s superb in that. I guess he just got pigeon holed into making trillions in action movies and there are probably worse pigeon holes TBF

    He has also starred in some of the best science fiction films of the 2qst century. Minority Report, Edge of Tomorrow and Oblivion are all excellent
    "What Horatius said was 'How can a man die better, than facing fearful odds for the ashes of his fathers and the temples of his gods?'"
    Doctor Who got there before Tom Cruise:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIfWDfxXLKg
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,102

    Nigelb said:

    What is Mandelson up to? You cannot square what the Prime Minister said this morning with this. What is the Government’s actual position?

    Our man in DC should be securing US protection for our brave Ukrainian allies, not telling President Zelensky what to do.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1896251905338417370

    Of course you can. The whole point of Starmer appointing Mandelson was to enable him to spin, lie and misdirect on behalf of HMG to try and thread the Trump needle. I don't think it is sustainable but it is fairly clear what he is trying to do and why Starmer wants him there.
    Yes, I doubt he's freelancing.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,009
    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,614

    Nigelb said:

    What is Mandelson up to? You cannot square what the Prime Minister said this morning with this. What is the Government’s actual position?

    Our man in DC should be securing US protection for our brave Ukrainian allies, not telling President Zelensky what to do.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1896251905338417370

    Of course you can. The whole point of Starmer appointing Mandelson was to enable him to spin, lie and misdirect on behalf of HMG to try and thread the Trump needle. I don't think it is sustainable but it is fairly clear what he is trying to do and why Starmer wants him there.
    You can certainly rationalise it like that.
    But you can't reconcile the actual positions themselves - which in itself is a somewhat risky when dealing with someone as touchy as Trump.

    Davey is quite right to ask, even if that's partly just politics.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,481
    edited 1:29PM
    Very funny just about the entire PB corpus denounced Mandy when he first made his announcement saying what a ****, what an idiot, he's mad someone should rein him in.

    And just about the entire PB corpus is now saying well of course what he's been saying is part of the government's master plan.

    Soz but you lot are such idiots.
  • I fear that those prophesying the demise of Reform due to their lukewarm response to "the coalition of the willing" are overly optimistic. We are unprepared to support Ukraine without the US (I read - no expert knowledge) - and the plans being discussed to rectify this are very long term. Many, Labour and Tory, are making very bold, assertive promises. This could all go pear shaped from a British public opinion point of view in the medium term if the response turns into a fiasco, and Reform can then cash in.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,264

    viewcode said:

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)

    It would be 'brave' of the US to block UK use of our F-35s, considering how much British technology is in those aircraft. LockMart would have a complete and lengthy production shutdown if we retaliated with a ban on parts exports. The ejection seats on all F-35s, the lift fan on F-35Bs, and a whole bunch of smaller but still critical parts are sourced from the UK suppliers.

    But even the threat of this demonstrates why the Tempest program needs to be accelerated and why we're probably going to have to convert the RN's carriers to cats-and-traps at some point.

    The Americans will have a plan somewhere to work around all of that - their goal has always been to be able to operate alone.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,009
    Farage is right that Ukraine is notably corrupt.
    As in, more corrupt than even its neighbours.

    One reason why the economy pretty much flatlined after the 1990s.

    Important to be clear-eyed about these things.
    Farage’s error is in spouting the Putinist position, at this moment in time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,614
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    A good piece on the difficulties of military decoupling, written in an..err..vernacular style comprehensible to numpties, eg me.

    ‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’

    https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a lot of limbo and hoops to read the rest of it.
    Here's a summary of the crucial bit.

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)
    Next decade is going to be Tempestuous, then.
    The decade after might be. Typhoon was 12 years from first flight to first operational squadron. Tempest isn't close to flying and these things haven't got any simpler or cheaper.
    I'm talking about the development efforts, which are probably more important anyway, not the actual deployment.

    But test flight to deployment can be done a lot quicker than 12 years.
    The KF21* first test flight was in 2022; first deployment is planned next year. The entire order is expected to be delivered by 2032.

    *Developed for similar reasons.
    Which of Dura and me is correct about all that doesn't anyway address what's needed for the rest of this decade.

    This is an interesting thread considering that.

    Europe’s disarmed state is …

    an advantage

    ✅… IF we use it right by stepping up, NOW to arm ourselves, for the ST, MT & LT future in a smart way

    ❌not slowly spending a fortune trying to replace US capabilities & arming ourselves to fight the last war, not the next one.

    https://x.com/bctallis/status/1896494342648610823

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,009
    edited 1:39PM
    The Oscars are shite, and have been shite as long as I remember. The Golden Globes have better critical apparatus than the qualuded boomers who make up the voting Academy.

    Which makes it notable that “No Other Land” won best documentary.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,848
    edited 1:39PM
    biggles said:

    I can see Mandelson becoming a cult figure among the MAGA crowd in the US.

    Him and his husband?
    A lot of people seem to mistake MAGA for Bush-era conservatism.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,614

    Farage is right that Ukraine is notably corrupt.
    As in, more corrupt than even its neighbours.

    One reason why the economy pretty much flatlined after the 1990s.

    Important to be clear-eyed about these things.
    Farage’s error is in spouting the Putinist position, at this moment in time.

    It's been slowly improving, with some backsliding last year.

    Among its neighbors, Ukraine remains ahead of Russia—the terrorist state lost 4 points in 2024 and fell to 154th place with 22 points. Similarly, Belarus, Ukraine’s northern neighbor, also lost 4 points last year and now ranks 114th with 33 points.
    Among its western neighbors, only Moldova improved its overall position, scoring 43 points and ranking 76th. For the second consecutive year, Romania maintained a score of 46 points, ranking 65th. All other countries worsened their positions: Poland (53 points, 53rd place) and Hungary (41 points, 82nd place) each lost 1 point, and Slovakia lost 5 points (49 points, 59th place). Thus, Ukraine and most of its neighbors—except Moldova and Romania—worsened their performance on the Corruption Perceptions Index in 2024...

    https://cpi.ti-ukraine.org/en/
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,187

    biggles said:

    I can see Mandelson becoming a cult figure among the MAGA crowd in the US.

    Him and his husband?
    A lot of people seem to mistake MAGA for Bush-era conservatism.
    There's plenty of homophobia among the MAGA crowd, as you'd expect. A lot of unhappiness over Trump's pick of Besent at Treasury, for instance.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,614

    biggles said:

    I can see Mandelson becoming a cult figure among the MAGA crowd in the US.

    Him and his husband?
    A lot of people seem to mistake MAGA for Bush-era conservatism.
    A minuscule number of people mistake MAGA for Bush-era conservstism.
    And certainly, very few Bush era conservatives.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,017

    Farage is right that Ukraine is notably corrupt.
    As in, more corrupt than even its neighbours.

    Including Russia?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,614
    edited 1:44PM

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,170
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    A good piece on the difficulties of military decoupling, written in an..err..vernacular style comprehensible to numpties, eg me.

    ‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’

    https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a lot of limbo and hoops to read the rest of it.
    Here's a summary of the crucial bit.

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)
    Next decade is going to be Tempestuous, then.
    The decade after might be. Typhoon was 12 years from first flight to first operational squadron. Tempest isn't close to flying and these things haven't got any simpler or cheaper.
    I'm talking about the development efforts, which are probably more important anyway, not the actual deployment.

    But test flight to deployment can be done a lot quicker than 12 years.
    The KF21* first test flight was in 2022; first deployment is planned next year. The entire order is expected to be delivered by 2032.

    *Developed for similar reasons.
    Which of Dura and me is correct about all that doesn't anyway address what's needed for the rest of this decade.

    This is an interesting thread considering that.

    Europe’s disarmed state is …

    an advantage

    ✅… IF we use it right by stepping up, NOW to arm ourselves, for the ST, MT & LT future in a smart way

    ❌not slowly spending a fortune trying to replace US capabilities & arming ourselves to fight the last war, not the next one.

    https://x.com/bctallis/status/1896494342648610823

    The problem is that some people are trying to turn that into “kit bash 3 zillion drones. Job done”

    The evidence is that things like artillery and tanks are still needed. But when you suggest buying a stockpile of artillery shells - “expensive, slow, not sexy”
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,009

    Farage is right that Ukraine is notably corrupt.
    As in, more corrupt than even its neighbours.

    Including Russia?
    No, I should have been clearer: against former Warsaw Pact countries.

    Russia has gone seriously backwards. It’s simply a fascist, mafioso state at this point.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,818
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    What is Mandelson up to? You cannot square what the Prime Minister said this morning with this. What is the Government’s actual position?

    Our man in DC should be securing US protection for our brave Ukrainian allies, not telling President Zelensky what to do.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1896251905338417370

    Of course you can. The whole point of Starmer appointing Mandelson was to enable him to spin, lie and misdirect on behalf of HMG to try and thread the Trump needle. I don't think it is sustainable but it is fairly clear what he is trying to do and why Starmer wants him there.
    You can certainly rationalise it like that.
    But you can't reconcile the actual positions themselves - which in itself is a somewhat risky when dealing with someone as touchy as Trump.

    Davey is quite right to ask, even if that's partly just politics.
    The positions are fluid so don't particularly need reconciling.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,416
    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    A good piece on the difficulties of military decoupling, written in an..err..vernacular style comprehensible to numpties, eg me.

    ‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’

    https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a lot of limbo and hoops to read the rest of it.
    Here's a summary of the crucial bit.

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)
    Thank you.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,009
    edited 1:48PM
    Nigelb said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,614
    edited 1:50PM

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    A good piece on the difficulties of military decoupling, written in an..err..vernacular style comprehensible to numpties, eg me.

    ‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’

    https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a lot of limbo and hoops to read the rest of it.
    Here's a summary of the crucial bit.

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)
    Next decade is going to be Tempestuous, then.
    The decade after might be. Typhoon was 12 years from first flight to first operational squadron. Tempest isn't close to flying and these things haven't got any simpler or cheaper.
    I'm talking about the development efforts, which are probably more important anyway, not the actual deployment.

    But test flight to deployment can be done a lot quicker than 12 years.
    The KF21* first test flight was in 2022; first deployment is planned next year. The entire order is expected to be delivered by 2032.

    *Developed for similar reasons.
    Which of Dura and me is correct about all that doesn't anyway address what's needed for the rest of this decade.

    This is an interesting thread considering that.

    Europe’s disarmed state is …

    an advantage

    ✅… IF we use it right by stepping up, NOW to arm ourselves, for the ST, MT & LT future in a smart way

    ❌not slowly spending a fortune trying to replace US capabilities & arming ourselves to fight the last war, not the next one.

    https://x.com/bctallis/status/1896494342648610823

    The problem is that some people are trying to turn that into “kit bash 3 zillion drones. Job done”

    The evidence is that things like artillery and tanks are still needed. But when you suggest buying a stockpile of artillery shells - “expensive, slow, not sexy”
    Artillery and mortar shells aren't particularly expensive.
    Compared to (say) Meteor missiles.
    I think it's generally recognised that ammunition stocks for existing systems (which have been minimal for years) are one of the priorities, whatever else we end up doing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,614

    Nigelb said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,201
    Nigelb said:

    Tiny study (only 18 individuals), and not blinded, but a pretty wild result for one of the most aggressive cancers.
    Though there will be confounding factors (not least the ability to stick to the diet) there is a plausible mechanistic explanation, too.


    Successful application of dietary ketogenic metabolic therapy in patients with glioblastoma: a clinical study

    https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/nutrition/articles/10.3389/fnut.2024.1489812/full
    Introduction: Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) ranks as one of the most aggressive primary malignant tumor affecting the brain. The persistent challenge of treatment failure and high relapse rates in GBM highlights the need for new treatment approaches. Recent research has pivoted toward exploring alternative therapeutic methods, such as the ketogenic diet, for GBM.

    Methods: A total of 18 patients with GBM, 8 women and 10 men, aged between 34 and 75 years participated in a prospective study, examining the impact of ketogenic diet on tumor progression. The pool of patients originated from our hospital during the period from January 2016 until July 2021 and were followed until January 2024. As an assessment criterion, we set an optimistic target for adherence to the ketogenic diet beyond 6  months. We considered the therapeutic combination successful if the survival reached at least 3  years.

    Results: Among the 18 patients participating in the study, 6 adhered to the ketogenic diet for more than 6 months. Of these patients, one patient passed away 43 months after diagnosis, achieving a survival of 3 years; another passed away at 36 months, narrowly missing the 3-year survival mark; and one is still alive at 33 months post-diagnosis but has yet to reach the 3-year milestone and is, therefore, not included in the final survival rate calculation. The remaining 3 are also still alive, completing 84,43 and 44 months of life, respectively. Consequently, the survival rate among these patients is 4 out of 6, or 66.7%. Of the 12 patients who did not adhere to the diet, only one reached 36 months of survival, while the rest have died in an average time of 15.7 ± 6.7 months, with a 3-year survival rate of 8.3%. Comparing the survival rates of the two groups, we see that the difference is 58.3% (66.7% versus 8.3%) and is statistically significant with p < 0.05 (0.0114) and X2 = 6.409...</I>

    Really nice idea and some promising results (caveat that the patients had also had other treatments, so its an add in to more traditional treatment. Finding a difference in how the cancer cell behaves to how your normal cells do is the best hope for finding treatments with limited side effects. In this case (and I haven't fully read the paper) you'd expect on side effect to be weight loss to a more healthy weight, depending on starting points...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,416

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    What is Mandelson up to? You cannot square what the Prime Minister said this morning with this. What is the Government’s actual position?

    Our man in DC should be securing US protection for our brave Ukrainian allies, not telling President Zelensky what to do.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1896251905338417370

    Davey is a fool, Mandy is doing exactly what the government has told him to do. He's not freewheeling out there, this is a strategy of getting Trump back around the table by any means necessary even if it means we've got the ambassador directly contradicting the PM.

    This is how diplomacy works and Davey is either naive or just plain stupid if he really believes that Mandy is out there dancing to his own tune.
    Davey might realise that, and is making the comment for political gain.
    Having the Deputy Leader of the Opposition criticising the PM adds verisimilitude.

    It's 7 dimensional chess :smile: .
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,233
    TOPPING said:

    Very funny just about the entire PB corpus denounced Mandy when he first made his announcement saying what a ****, what an idiot, he's mad someone should rein him in.

    And just about the entire PB corpus is now saying well of course what he's been saying is part of the government's master plan.

    Soz but you lot are such idiots.

    Not me, I've not changed my mind. Mandy should be pulled up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 74,614

    Nigelb said:

    Tiny study (only 18 individuals), and not blinded, but a pretty wild result for one of the most aggressive cancers.
    Though there will be confounding factors (not least the ability to stick to the diet) there is a plausible mechanistic explanation, too.


    Successful application of dietary ketogenic metabolic therapy in patients with glioblastoma: a clinical study

    https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/nutrition/articles/10.3389/fnut.2024.1489812/full
    Introduction: Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) ranks as one of the most aggressive primary malignant tumor affecting the brain. The persistent challenge of treatment failure and high relapse rates in GBM highlights the need for new treatment approaches. Recent research has pivoted toward exploring alternative therapeutic methods, such as the ketogenic diet, for GBM.

    Methods: A total of 18 patients with GBM, 8 women and 10 men, aged between 34 and 75 years participated in a prospective study, examining the impact of ketogenic diet on tumor progression. The pool of patients originated from our hospital during the period from January 2016 until July 2021 and were followed until January 2024. As an assessment criterion, we set an optimistic target for adherence to the ketogenic diet beyond 6  months. We considered the therapeutic combination successful if the survival reached at least 3  years.

    Results: Among the 18 patients participating in the study, 6 adhered to the ketogenic diet for more than 6 months. Of these patients, one patient passed away 43 months after diagnosis, achieving a survival of 3 years; another passed away at 36 months, narrowly missing the 3-year survival mark; and one is still alive at 33 months post-diagnosis but has yet to reach the 3-year milestone and is, therefore, not included in the final survival rate calculation. The remaining 3 are also still alive, completing 84,43 and 44 months of life, respectively. Consequently, the survival rate among these patients is 4 out of 6, or 66.7%. Of the 12 patients who did not adhere to the diet, only one reached 36 months of survival, while the rest have died in an average time of 15.7 ± 6.7 months, with a 3-year survival rate of 8.3%. Comparing the survival rates of the two groups, we see that the difference is 58.3% (66.7% versus 8.3%) and is statistically significant with p < 0.05 (0.0114) and X2 = 6.409...</I>

    Really nice idea and some promising results (caveat that the patients had also had other treatments, so its an add in to more traditional treatment. Finding a difference in how the cancer cell behaves to how your normal cells do is the best hope for finding treatments with limited side effects. In this case (and I haven't fully read the paper) you'd expect on side effect to be weight loss to a more healthy weight, depending on starting points...
    It's certainly a strong enough signal, in an extremely difficult indication, to justify a much bigger trial.
    Needs public health funding though, as there's nothing in it for Pharma.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,741

    biggles said:

    I can see Mandelson becoming a cult figure among the MAGA crowd in the US.

    Him and his husband?
    A lot of people seem to mistake MAGA for Bush-era conservatism.
    There's plenty of homophobia among the MAGA crowd, as you'd expect. A lot of unhappiness over Trump's pick of Besent at Treasury, for instance.
    Unrelated to any issues of sexuality but relating to the US economy. JPow on the outlook for the US economy will be one to listen to.

    Trump can posture all he wants. If ordinary peoples lives don’t improve he’s done for.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,601

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    What is Mandelson up to? You cannot square what the Prime Minister said this morning with this. What is the Government’s actual position?

    Our man in DC should be securing US protection for our brave Ukrainian allies, not telling President Zelensky what to do.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1896251905338417370

    Davey is a fool, Mandy is doing exactly what the government has told him to do. He's not freewheeling out there, this is a strategy of getting Trump back around the table by any means necessary even if it means we've got the ambassador directly contradicting the PM.

    This is how diplomacy works and Davey is either naive or just plain stupid if he really believes that Mandy is out there dancing to his own tune.
    Davey might realise that, and is making the comment for political gain.
    Which makes him worse than a fool, attempting to undermine the government's national security strategy for political gain. Good thing he's a complete nobody and no one gives a flying fuck what the Lib Dems think.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,524

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    A good piece on the difficulties of military decoupling, written in an..err..vernacular style comprehensible to numpties, eg me.

    ‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’

    https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a lot of limbo and hoops to read the rest of it.
    Here's a summary of the crucial bit.

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)
    Next decade is going to be Tempestuous, then.
    The decade after might be. Typhoon was 12 years from first flight to first operational squadron. Tempest isn't close to flying and these things haven't got any simpler or cheaper.
    I'm talking about the development efforts, which are probably more important anyway, not the actual deployment.

    But test flight to deployment can be done a lot quicker than 12 years.
    The KF21* first test flight was in 2022; first deployment is planned next year. The entire order is expected to be delivered by 2032.

    *Developed for similar reasons.
    Which of Dura and me is correct about all that doesn't anyway address what's needed for the rest of this decade.

    This is an interesting thread considering that.

    Europe’s disarmed state is …

    an advantage

    ✅… IF we use it right by stepping up, NOW to arm ourselves, for the ST, MT & LT future in a smart way

    ❌not slowly spending a fortune trying to replace US capabilities & arming ourselves to fight the last war, not the next one.

    https://x.com/bctallis/status/1896494342648610823

    The problem is that some people are trying to turn that into “kit bash 3 zillion drones. Job done”

    The evidence is that things like artillery and tanks are still needed. But when you suggest buying a stockpile of artillery shells - “expensive, slow, not sexy”
    Not to mention that a lot of drones are being brought down now, on both sides.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,009
    edited 1:57PM
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning, perhaps because a temporary arrangement doesn’t really commit anybody to anything substantive.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,233
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    What is Mandelson up to? You cannot square what the Prime Minister said this morning with this. What is the Government’s actual position?

    Our man in DC should be securing US protection for our brave Ukrainian allies, not telling President Zelensky what to do.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1896251905338417370

    Davey is a fool, Mandy is doing exactly what the government has told him to do. He's not freewheeling out there, this is a strategy of getting Trump back around the table by any means necessary even if it means we've got the ambassador directly contradicting the PM.

    This is how diplomacy works and Davey is either naive or just plain stupid if he really believes that Mandy is out there dancing to his own tune.
    Davey might realise that, and is making the comment for political gain.
    Which makes him worse than a fool, attempting to undermine the government's national security strategy for political gain. Good thing he's a complete nobody and no one gives a flying fuck what the Lib Dems think.
    Ooh touchy
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,403

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning.
    Luke Pollard was asked if what Mandelson said was government policy. He answered "no."
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,264

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    A good piece on the difficulties of military decoupling, written in an..err..vernacular style comprehensible to numpties, eg me.

    ‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’

    https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a lot of limbo and hoops to read the rest of it.
    Here's a summary of the crucial bit.

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)
    Next decade is going to be Tempestuous, then.
    The decade after might be. Typhoon was 12 years from first flight to first operational squadron. Tempest isn't close to flying and these things haven't got any simpler or cheaper.
    I'm talking about the development efforts, which are probably more important anyway, not the actual deployment.

    But test flight to deployment can be done a lot quicker than 12 years.
    The KF21* first test flight was in 2022; first deployment is planned next year. The entire order is expected to be delivered by 2032.

    *Developed for similar reasons.
    Which of Dura and me is correct about all that doesn't anyway address what's needed for the rest of this decade.

    This is an interesting thread considering that.

    Europe’s disarmed state is …

    an advantage

    ✅… IF we use it right by stepping up, NOW to arm ourselves, for the ST, MT & LT future in a smart way

    ❌not slowly spending a fortune trying to replace US capabilities & arming ourselves to fight the last war, not the next one.

    https://x.com/bctallis/status/1896494342648610823

    The problem is that some people are trying to turn that into “kit bash 3 zillion drones. Job done”

    The evidence is that things like artillery and tanks are still needed. But when you suggest buying a stockpile of artillery shells - “expensive, slow, not sexy”
    Not to mention that a lot of drones are being brought down now, on both sides.
    Manually operated low-level drones are probably a dead end anyway - next time expect Russia to bring a large number of low cost disposable solar signal jammers.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,009
    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning.
    Luke Pollard was asked if what Mandelson said was government policy. He answered "no."
    Deniability is a crucial element in the toolkit of diplomacy.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,264
    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning.
    Luke Pollard was asked if what Mandelson said was government policy. He answered "no."
    Something... something... Blair Autumn 2002...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,601
    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning.
    Luke Pollard was asked if what Mandelson said was government policy. He answered "no."
    Well obviously it isn't, the government is using Mandy's position as ambassador to fly a few kites and signal the "real" policy to Trump so he comes back to the negotiating table and doesn't drop his commitment on sanctions etc...

    I doubt this is the first time that an ambassador has been told to contradict official policy for the consumption of the audience of the country in which they reside.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,601

    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning.
    Luke Pollard was asked if what Mandelson said was government policy. He answered "no."
    Deniability is a crucial element in the toolkit of diplomacy.
    I think people are confused by this because it's the first example of proper diplomacy we've had to do for a very long time and it's all happening out in the open rather than behind closed doors because we've got to win over the MAGA crowd in the US.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,691
    Home. And spring sunshine!

    BRITISH WINTER SUCCESSFULLY DODGED

    *airpunch*
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,638
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    What is Mandelson up to? You cannot square what the Prime Minister said this morning with this. What is the Government’s actual position?

    Our man in DC should be securing US protection for our brave Ukrainian allies, not telling President Zelensky what to do.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1896251905338417370

    Davey is a fool, Mandy is doing exactly what the government has told him to do. He's not freewheeling out there, this is a strategy of getting Trump back around the table by any means necessary even if it means we've got the ambassador directly contradicting the PM.

    This is how diplomacy works and Davey is either naive or just plain stupid if he really believes that Mandy is out there dancing to his own tune.
    Davey might realise that, and is making the comment for political gain.
    Which makes him worse than a fool, attempting to undermine the government's national security strategy for political gain. Good thing he's a complete nobody and no one gives a flying fuck what the Lib Dems think.
    Hmm, keep an eye on those numbers. 16% last time round, and if Reform crashes that could boost to 18% simply by virtue of representing a larger voter share.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,170
    edited 2:09PM

    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Of course Mandelson is in lockstep with Starmer.
    Not just Davey but much of PB were wildly off base yesterday.

    I disagree.
    If it's a tactic then I don't think it's a smart one. If it's actual policy, then it's worse.
    You may disagree but it’s current British strategy.
    So which of the two is it ?
    Like Mandelson has suggested, Britain wants Ukraine to sign the deal and agree a ceasefire.

    It wants European peers to agree to ground troops, we are told to expect a few to announce their intentions this week.

    And it wants the U.S. to provide air and intelligence cover.

    It does *not* seem to agree with Macron’s call last night for a one month ceasefire, per briefings this morning.
    Luke Pollard was asked if what Mandelson said was government policy. He answered "no."
    Deniability is a crucial element in the toolkit of diplomacy.
    The denial seems pretty direct - https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-shoots-down-ambassador-mandelson-call-for-ukraine-declare-ceasefire-before-russia/

    I am now leaning towards "Mandelbrot has little respect for No. 10 and thinks of himself as somewhat independent and creating policy"

    EDIT : The denial policy ideas are not floated by the Ambassador publicly, then shot down by the defence minister.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,009
    Posters who refer to “Mandelbrot” make themselves seem silly. Ditto “Usonian”. Worst of all is “Musky Baby”.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,170
    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    A good piece on the difficulties of military decoupling, written in an..err..vernacular style comprehensible to numpties, eg me.

    ‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’

    https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a lot of limbo and hoops to read the rest of it.
    Here's a summary of the crucial bit.

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)
    Next decade is going to be Tempestuous, then.
    The decade after might be. Typhoon was 12 years from first flight to first operational squadron. Tempest isn't close to flying and these things haven't got any simpler or cheaper.
    I'm talking about the development efforts, which are probably more important anyway, not the actual deployment.

    But test flight to deployment can be done a lot quicker than 12 years.
    The KF21* first test flight was in 2022; first deployment is planned next year. The entire order is expected to be delivered by 2032.

    *Developed for similar reasons.
    Which of Dura and me is correct about all that doesn't anyway address what's needed for the rest of this decade.

    This is an interesting thread considering that.

    Europe’s disarmed state is …

    an advantage

    ✅… IF we use it right by stepping up, NOW to arm ourselves, for the ST, MT & LT future in a smart way

    ❌not slowly spending a fortune trying to replace US capabilities & arming ourselves to fight the last war, not the next one.

    https://x.com/bctallis/status/1896494342648610823

    The problem is that some people are trying to turn that into “kit bash 3 zillion drones. Job done”

    The evidence is that things like artillery and tanks are still needed. But when you suggest buying a stockpile of artillery shells - “expensive, slow, not sexy”
    Not to mention that a lot of drones are being brought down now, on both sides.
    Manually operated low-level drones are probably a dead end anyway - next time expect Russia to bring a large number of low cost disposable solar signal jammers.
    Spooled fibre optic is a big thing now, in Ukraine, because of broad spectrum jamming.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,264

    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    A good piece on the difficulties of military decoupling, written in an..err..vernacular style comprehensible to numpties, eg me.

    ‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’

    https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a lot of limbo and hoops to read the rest of it.
    Here's a summary of the crucial bit.

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)
    Next decade is going to be Tempestuous, then.
    The decade after might be. Typhoon was 12 years from first flight to first operational squadron. Tempest isn't close to flying and these things haven't got any simpler or cheaper.
    I'm talking about the development efforts, which are probably more important anyway, not the actual deployment.

    But test flight to deployment can be done a lot quicker than 12 years.
    The KF21* first test flight was in 2022; first deployment is planned next year. The entire order is expected to be delivered by 2032.

    *Developed for similar reasons.
    Which of Dura and me is correct about all that doesn't anyway address what's needed for the rest of this decade.

    This is an interesting thread considering that.

    Europe’s disarmed state is …

    an advantage

    ✅… IF we use it right by stepping up, NOW to arm ourselves, for the ST, MT & LT future in a smart way

    ❌not slowly spending a fortune trying to replace US capabilities & arming ourselves to fight the last war, not the next one.

    https://x.com/bctallis/status/1896494342648610823

    The problem is that some people are trying to turn that into “kit bash 3 zillion drones. Job done”

    The evidence is that things like artillery and tanks are still needed. But when you suggest buying a stockpile of artillery shells - “expensive, slow, not sexy”
    Not to mention that a lot of drones are being brought down now, on both sides.
    Manually operated low-level drones are probably a dead end anyway - next time expect Russia to bring a large number of low cost disposable solar signal jammers.
    Spooled fibre optic is a big thing now, in Ukraine, because of broad spectrum jamming.
    I'm not sure that you'll be able to run a drone with a tail trailing behind it. It'll have to be autonomous or nothing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,170
    Foss said:

    Foss said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    A good piece on the difficulties of military decoupling, written in an..err..vernacular style comprehensible to numpties, eg me.

    ‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’

    https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a lot of limbo and hoops to read the rest of it.
    Here's a summary of the crucial bit.

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)
    Next decade is going to be Tempestuous, then.
    The decade after might be. Typhoon was 12 years from first flight to first operational squadron. Tempest isn't close to flying and these things haven't got any simpler or cheaper.
    I'm talking about the development efforts, which are probably more important anyway, not the actual deployment.

    But test flight to deployment can be done a lot quicker than 12 years.
    The KF21* first test flight was in 2022; first deployment is planned next year. The entire order is expected to be delivered by 2032.

    *Developed for similar reasons.
    Which of Dura and me is correct about all that doesn't anyway address what's needed for the rest of this decade.

    This is an interesting thread considering that.

    Europe’s disarmed state is …

    an advantage

    ✅… IF we use it right by stepping up, NOW to arm ourselves, for the ST, MT & LT future in a smart way

    ❌not slowly spending a fortune trying to replace US capabilities & arming ourselves to fight the last war, not the next one.

    https://x.com/bctallis/status/1896494342648610823

    The problem is that some people are trying to turn that into “kit bash 3 zillion drones. Job done”

    The evidence is that things like artillery and tanks are still needed. But when you suggest buying a stockpile of artillery shells - “expensive, slow, not sexy”
    Not to mention that a lot of drones are being brought down now, on both sides.
    Manually operated low-level drones are probably a dead end anyway - next time expect Russia to bring a large number of low cost disposable solar signal jammers.
    Spooled fibre optic is a big thing now, in Ukraine, because of broad spectrum jamming.
    I'm not sure that you'll be able to run a drone with a tail trailing behind it. It'll have to be autonomous or nothing.
    Both are being used. With partially autonomous (fly this route, then wait for instructions) in the mix.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 53,848
    Interesting thread. Is the financial crisis a red herring when looking at British economic problems since the late 2000s?

    https://x.com/kallumpickering/status/1896490714864972218

    We begin our analysis with a simple observation - that the decline in UK electricity availability, which started in 2006, coincided with the start of structural weakness in UK productivity growth
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,102
    edited 2:18PM
    Eabhal said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    What is Mandelson up to? You cannot square what the Prime Minister said this morning with this. What is the Government’s actual position?

    Our man in DC should be securing US protection for our brave Ukrainian allies, not telling President Zelensky what to do.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1896251905338417370

    Davey is a fool, Mandy is doing exactly what the government has told him to do. He's not freewheeling out there, this is a strategy of getting Trump back around the table by any means necessary even if it means we've got the ambassador directly contradicting the PM.

    This is how diplomacy works and Davey is either naive or just plain stupid if he really believes that Mandy is out there dancing to his own tune.
    Davey might realise that, and is making the comment for political gain.
    Which makes him worse than a fool, attempting to undermine the government's national security strategy for political gain. Good thing he's a complete nobody and no one gives a flying fuck what the Lib Dems think.
    Hmm, keep an eye on those numbers. 16% last time round, and if Reform crashes that could boost to 18% simply by virtue of representing a larger voter share.
    TrumpHate is (to our credit) a big constituency in the UK. With Labour forced to pull punches by dint of being the government there's an opportunity for the LDs.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,725
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    A good piece on the difficulties of military decoupling, written in an..err..vernacular style comprehensible to numpties, eg me.

    ‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’

    https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a lot of limbo and hoops to read the rest of it.
    Here's a summary of the crucial bit.

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)
    Next decade is going to be Tempestuous, then.
    The decade after might be. Typhoon was 12 years from first flight to first operational squadron. Tempest isn't close to flying and these things haven't got any simpler or cheaper.
    I'm talking about the development efforts, which are probably more important anyway, not the actual deployment.

    But test flight to deployment can be done a lot quicker than 12 years.
    The KF21* first test flight was in 2022; first deployment is planned next year. The entire order is expected to be delivered by 2032.

    *Developed for similar reasons.
    Making a plane fly is relatively easy and quick - see the X-35. Making a plane into a competent weapons platform is now orders of magnitude more complex - see how long the X-35 took to mature into the F-35.

    JSF project contracts awarded: Nov 1996.
    X-35 first flight - Oct 2000.
    Project decision - Oct 2001.
    F-35 Initial Operating Capability - July 2015.

    In fact, they got two different prototypes in 2000 - the Boeing X-32 first flew in September 2000.

    So it took four years to make two competing flying airframes, and 14 years to turn one of those airframes into a usable combat aircraft.

    It's the systems that take time, not the plane.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,957
    With all the doom and gloom around at the moment, thought it would be nice to share a good news story - well kind of.

    Sad for the death of the man but wow, what an amazing legacy.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/australian-man-whose-blood-donations-saved-2-4-million-babies-dies-aged-88/ar-AA1A8sJz
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,725

    Posters who refer to “Mandelbrot” make themselves seem silly. Ditto “Usonian”. Worst of all is “Musky Baby”.

    Is Mandlebrot now within the power of Usonian Musky Baby? ;)

    To be frank, the people who make themselves look silly are the ones who endlessly complain about their linguistic likes and dislikes online...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,170

    Posters who refer to “Mandelbrot” make themselves seem silly. Ditto “Usonian”. Worst of all is “Musky Baby”.

    Run out of things to say on the topic in hand?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,102
    Leon said:

    Home. And spring sunshine!

    BRITISH WINTER SUCCESSFULLY DODGED

    *airpunch*

    Real patriots don't dodge British winters.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,170

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    MattW said:

    A good piece on the difficulties of military decoupling, written in an..err..vernacular style comprehensible to numpties, eg me.

    ‘How to leave your abusive international warplane supplying partner and start a new life’

    https://x.com/hush_kit/status/1896323281252409368?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    It's a lot of limbo and hoops to read the rest of it.
    Here's a summary of the crucial bit.

    The F-35 is particularly vulnerable because pretty much everything on the aircraft is run through the Integrated Core Processors, and the higher functions of the ICP are contained in the Mission Data File (MDF), and the MDFs for non-Israeli export aircraft are updated in US-controlled labs in the United States. Those labs set the parameters for the specific mission. Those labs are in Eglin Air Force Base, Florida (one for USA, one for Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom, one for Norway and Italy)

    The Mission Data File (MDF) is essentially the "brain" of the F-35's mission systems. It contains mission data about geography, airspace, and threats such as enemy aircraft or radar systems. The MDF also supports the F-35's single pilot display.

    Take it away and, for example, it doesn't know where the ground is. That may sound trivial (the pilot can still see it. Probably) but things like engine settings may vary when close to the ground, "hot and high", or taking off or landing. Ooops.

    You can see the problem.

    Egline Air Force Base reprogramming labs
    U.S. Reprogramming Laboratory (USRL)
    Australia, Canada, and United Kingdom Reprogramming Laboratory (ACURL)
    Norway and Italy Reprogramming Laboratory (NIRL)
    Next decade is going to be Tempestuous, then.
    The decade after might be. Typhoon was 12 years from first flight to first operational squadron. Tempest isn't close to flying and these things haven't got any simpler or cheaper.
    I'm talking about the development efforts, which are probably more important anyway, not the actual deployment.

    But test flight to deployment can be done a lot quicker than 12 years.
    The KF21* first test flight was in 2022; first deployment is planned next year. The entire order is expected to be delivered by 2032.

    *Developed for similar reasons.
    Making a plane fly is relatively easy and quick - see the X-35. Making a plane into a competent weapons platform is now orders of magnitude more complex - see how long the X-35 took to mature into the F-35.

    JSF project contracts awarded: Nov 1996.
    X-35 first flight - Oct 2000.
    Project decision - Oct 2001.
    F-35 Initial Operating Capability - July 2015.

    In fact, they got two different prototypes in 2000 - the Boeing X-32 first flew in September 2000.

    So it took four years to make two competing flying airframes, and 14 years to turn one of those airframes into a usable combat aircraft.

    It's the systems that take time, not the plane.
    An issue is the style of development where the initial aircraft has to be “all up”

    Some years ago, an ex-BAe engineer pointed out they could have flown an initial Eurofighter with Tornado engines and radar, very rapidly. Left lots of space for upgrades and made sure that it *was* upgradable.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,017
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Home. And spring sunshine!

    BRITISH WINTER SUCCESSFULLY DODGED

    *airpunch*

    Real patriots don't dodge British winters.
    Leon is a fair-weather Briton.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,691
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Home. And spring sunshine!

    BRITISH WINTER SUCCESSFULLY DODGED

    *airpunch*

    Real patriots don't dodge British winters.
    Only cretins endure them
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,957

    TOPPING said:

    Very funny just about the entire PB corpus denounced Mandy when he first made his announcement saying what a ****, what an idiot, he's mad someone should rein him in.

    And just about the entire PB corpus is now saying well of course what he's been saying is part of the government's master plan.

    Soz but you lot are such idiots.

    Not me, I've not changed my mind. Mandy should be pulled up.
    Agreed. And if it is Government policy then they are idiots. Trump cannot be trusted and we ned to stop relying on the US to solve things for us.
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