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By-election betting – politicalbetting.com
By-election betting – politicalbetting.com
The dynamics of the now inevitable by-election: low turn out, national government unpopular, disgraced former MP and Reform already 2nd mean – despite the big Labour majority – Reform i think would be disappointed not to win given their current polling and becomes a test for them too.
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How does this affect the predictions competition ?
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/labour
The sentence was met with apparent shock in the courtroom. Richard Derby, representing Amesbury, asked the judge: “Is that an immediate sentence?” The judge nodded, replied “yes” and left the courtroom.
Derby then requested the judge come back into court as he wished to make an application for bail for Amesbury, pending an appeal against his sentence. Ikram returned to court, sat down, paused briefly and said: “Application refused.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/feb/24/suspended-labour-mp-mike-amesbury-sentenced-assault
The trial of Jason Zadrozny, leader of Ashfield District Council, has been delayed until 2026. No reason given.
The trial was scheduled to take around four to six weeks and was moved from Nottingham to Northampton following a request from his solicitor.
However the court confirmed on Thursday, February 20, the trial date has been pushed back to August 24, 2026.
No reason was given for the 18-month delay.
https://www.chad.co.uk/news/people/ashfield-district-council-leader-jason-zadroznys-trial-delayed-until-2026-4999844
Overall, Reform have made 12 gains out of 281 seats contested since the last May round, which isn't very many. However, there's been an acceleration in their performance (unsurprisingly given the polls). Between May-Aug, they gained 1 seat out of the 91 contested. In Sept-Nov, they won 5 out of 153. Since the beginning of December, they've won 6 out of 37 (presumably the much lower number of contests is a consequence of them not being triggered over Christmas / New Year at anything like the same rate).
In a normal May election round, parties won't (can't) throw the same energy, money or paper at each seat as in a by-election, so results will trend more back to national polling and underlying party resource. In many seats, there'll be precious little campaigning at all. That will suit Reform. I'd expect them to make a proportionately large number of gains but this won't produce dramatic figures because so few seats are up
Anyone surprised about this hasn’t paid attention to the complete lack of money spent on our criminal justice system since 2010.
I said earlier: Reform will have been chomping at the bit for a seat *like* this to come up – but just not specifically this seat. The Runcorn bit is too Scouse to swing too far from Labour; the rest of the seat is too genteel to swing too far towards Reform.
And the current news cycle isn’t massively favourable to Reform. Reform do well when immigration is in the spotlight, but not when Ukraine is in the spotlight. Of course, the news cycle might be quite different when the BE comes around.
TBF it is estimated at 4-6 weeks of Crown Court time.
I think it unlikely he'll get the sentence reduced to less than a suspended sentence.
My gut is that the Labour vote craters (from 22k to 7k), the Tory vote drops a little (7k to 5k) and Reform is up but not massively (7k to 9-10k).
This gives Reform a fairly comfortable win on low turnout.
* Yes, the Liberal Party. It still exists.
I am going to ask the Attorney General to allow the trial to be televised.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c241n65qz9do
I would be tempted by Labour at anything above 3/2
Reasons:
1. Just under 35% is not an easy majority to overturn.
2. Badenoch's Tories need to fight hard as a RefUK win is, if anything, worse news for her than for Starmer.
3. There is a non-trivial chance of the RefUK candidate being a dud or worse.
Evens is good odds. 1/2 isn't.
It's only blind luck than means he's got 10 weeks rather than 10 years.
I think you are correct in your assumptions and though I would vote conservative I do expect some tactical voting to defeat the Labour candidate
Guest threads will be even more appreciated, hint hint, otherwise I may have to do threads on AV and Scottish independence.
And while I appreciate that Kemi wants a win, the Conservatives have never had a particularly impressive byelection machine.
Your third point is a good one, mind: there's a fair chance that they nominate a nutter.
Too early for me to take a position but it would be Reform IMHO.
(I'm not listening to this one.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2LVaEkUgxM
Switching sides to support Russia against Ukraine is "a real indication of what it means to have a King [not a president], the whims of the king become policy immediately and then have to be defended by all the courtiers...they have to sound like what the king wants."
Short and quite interesting.
https://www.judiciary.uk/judgments/r-v-michael-amesbury/
On the Tory by-election machine, they won't win it. But the point is they will gun hard against RefUK, and will split the anti-Labour vote. This isn't like one of the Lib Dem wins in the last Parliament where Labour put in a fairly token effort (or indeed Labour wins where the Lib Dems didn't show up).
And as was pointed out above - if he had hit the victim in a different part of his head the charge could easily have been murder
They're strict liability, so you're almost always guilty unlike more serious offences where you need motive...- up to 12 points guidance seems to be followed but past 12 points magistrates are too soft in stopping people driving, I'd agree 'extraordinary hardship' is very overused
I'm interested particularly in the section where he says (ish) that Europe should declare UDI from Trumptopolis.
Reform have been working the seat for a long time in anticipation for this. I don't see the Tories doing anything - indeed Kemi would be well advised to play down their chances and offer close to zero support to their selected candidate. Enough votes to keep their deposit will do nicely.
Labour's vote will surely be depressed, not just by the national picture but by the manner of the by-election. So do we think that the appalled Zelensky fans of Runcorn will pass up the opportunity to give the Government a kicking? I will say I don't.
Ukraine diplomacy live: UN assembly condemns Russia’s Ukraine invasion despite US opposition - https://on.ft.com/4ig9Zgl via @FT
Or if not that just the sheer respect of one strongman for another would bring a fair and lasting peace.
We await with bated breath.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jan/16/suspended-labour-mp-mike-amesbury-pleads-guilty-to-assault
Also it seems China supports the Trump - Putin peace talks
A new world order is happening before our very eyes and I have no idea where Europe or the UK will feature in it
Anyway the press conference between Trump and Macron will be very interesting
That's not to say nobody supports him - they probably do. But there's no counter-petition - once triggered, it's just a question of whether 10% of the electorate sign and, with Labour being unpopular, they would.
I'm reminded a bit of the Brecon by-election where some people sympathised with the removed Tory over what was a relatively minor matter, and he actually stood in the by-election and didn't do appallingly. But the actual recall petition passed quite easily with about 20% signing in a rural area where the practicalities of doing so were trickier. This was summer 2019 before the Johnson bounce, the Tories were fairly unpopular, and people signed on that basis.
Jeremy Meneses-Chalarca was held down by two teenagers, and stabbed by a third. The two who held him down were charged, not with murder, but assault. So they got sentences measured in months.
Shameful and despicable.
These are extraordinary times with real problems for Europe and UK
If there is value, it's with Labour.
US - Russia - China line up together v UK and France as permanent members of the UN security council !!!!
I don't see Z going in for "I will step down in return for NATO membership". That's a one shot, and I'm not sure NATO membership is worth that much any more on its own - Trump could just turn the USA's coat tomorrow.
It gets nothing from the USA except a bit of paper. And those are exactly the sorts of bits of paper that Trump has been wiping his bottom with every day, and on which he places no value.
I find it hard to imagine it would be an unprovoked attack.
Trump will meet Zelensky to sign minerals deal
I'm not in any way justifying it, and think the sentence is about right. But I think most people picturing the circumstances would see a drunken argument where the MP wrongly failed to keep his cool but nobody comes out entirely smelling of roses. And they'd probably be broadly right.
https://bsky.app/profile/pippacrerar.bsky.social/post/3liwufp4hxk27
@kaitlancollins
"I don't want to explain it now, but it's sort of self evident I think," President Trump says in the Oval Office when asked about why the U.S. joined Russia to vote in voting against a UN resolution condemning Russia’s war against Ukraine.
People on here are commenting with their hearts not their heads. Similar to the days of "Ukraine will win because they have to win".
Look at the voting blocs that we are seeing right now. That's the reality, not what we want or don't want.
I would very much like to be a part of a Europe which is self-sufficient in any number of ways and we will have to wait to see if that will transpire. More likely is we will relapse back into our reliance on other states (ie the United ones) but we shall see.
What is disappointing on PB, that said, is that precious few people are bringing cold, hard analysis to the situation. Why, upthread there was someone bemoaning our presumed (ie 100% certain) lack of action if China invades Taiwan ffs.
Too many people on PB are living in, perhaps hark fondly back to the times when the map was coloured pink.
Breaking - the news is found!
@BeingJWood
Is the United States military loyal to the Constitution or are they loyal to Trump?
R is for Reform.
R is for Russia.
We owe it, therefore, to candor and to the amicable relations existing between the United States and those powers to declare that we should consider any attempt on their part to extend their system to any portion of this hemisphere as dangerous to our peace and safety. With the existing colonies or dependencies of any European power, we have not interfered and shall not interfere. But with the Governments who have declared their independence and maintained it, and whose independence we have, on great consideration and on just principles, acknowledged, we could not view any interposition for the purpose of oppressing them, or controlling in any other manner their destiny, by any European power in any other light than as the manifestation of an unfriendly disposition toward the United States.
Ex-Reform UK leader in Wales accused of taking Russian bribes
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/ex-reform-uk-leader-wales-31069958#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
Deal with the organ grinder, not the monkey...
Aren’t Reform now ahead in Welsh polling?
Maybe not any more.