Was thinking of having sautéed livers this weekend but watching the (illustrated) news item about the increase in liver disease at the mo' I think I might have quinoa instead.
Another load of bollocks, do we believe this cretin or judge by the £15B investment. I doubt very much that the oil companies are throwing money at it to get no return. A blind man would know that there is plenty left and it will be going up in price and Scotland will be in control of it.
Oh dear. Was the article cretinous, do you think? Do you think that everyone is wrong on this issue? Of course there is plenty of oil left, but prices have fallen and the OBR have pointed this out. Perhaps pessimistic, but who knows? All you want to do is get over the line in the referendum and abuse, denigrate and scream at anyone who does not agree with you. It breaks my heart to see your attitude. This is far too important to be shrieking Trougher, Liar, Bollox etc. etc.
Very very depressing.
When has the price of oil fallen , did I miss that one. The OBR cannot forecast 1 month ahead never mind years or decades. They are consistently revisiting their rubbish forecasts. If the truth hurts and you are a poor lonely unionist who sees the liars and troughers heading for the exit so be it. The future is bright and it is not in the union. Soar Alba.
Was thinking of having sautéed livers this weekend but watching the (illustrated) news item about the increase in liver disease at the mo' I think I might have quinoa instead.
There are times I have sauteed livers too. Internally
Another load of bollocks, do we believe this cretin or judge by the £15B investment. I doubt very much that the oil companies are throwing money at it to get no return. A blind man would know that there is plenty left and it will be going up in price and Scotland will be in control of it.
Oh dear. Was the article cretinous, do you think? Do you think that everyone is wrong on this issue? Of course there is plenty of oil left, but prices have fallen and the OBR have pointed this out. Perhaps pessimistic, but who knows? All you want to do is get over the line in the referendum and abuse, denigrate and scream at anyone who does not agree with you. It breaks my heart to see your attitude. This is far too important to be shrieking Trougher, Liar, Bollox etc. etc.
Very very depressing.
When has the price of oil fallen , did I miss that one. The OBR cannot forecast 1 month ahead never mind years or decades. They are consistently revisiting their rubbish forecasts. If the truth hurts and you are a poor lonely unionist who sees the liars and troughers heading for the exit so be it. The future is bright and it is not in the union. Soar Alba.
Troughers that buy £250 tartan trousers on expenses, and refuse to reveal the details of their luxury hotel accommodations on spurious 'security' grounds?
Another load of bollocks, do we believe this cretin or judge by the £15B investment. I doubt very much that the oil companies are throwing money at it to get no return. A blind man would know that there is plenty left and it will be going up in price and Scotland will be in control of it.
Oh dear. Was the article cretinous, do you think? Do you think that everyone is wrong on this issue? Of course there is plenty of oil left, but prices have fallen and the OBR have pointed this out. Perhaps pessimistic, but who knows? All you want to do is get over the line in the referendum and abuse, denigrate and scream at anyone who does not agree with you. It breaks my heart to see your attitude. This is far too important to be shrieking Trougher, Liar, Bollox etc. etc.
Very very depressing.
When has the price of oil fallen , did I miss that one. The OBR cannot forecast 1 month ahead never mind years or decades. They are consistently revisiting their rubbish forecasts. If the truth hurts and you are a poor lonely unionist who sees the liars and troughers heading for the exit so be it. The future is bright and it is not in the union. Soar Alba.
Another load of bollocks, do we believe this cretin or judge by the £15B investment. I doubt very much that the oil companies are throwing money at it to get no return. A blind man would know that there is plenty left and it will be going up in price and Scotland will be in control of it.
Oh dear. Was the article cretinous, do you think? Do you think that everyone is wrong on this issue? Of course there is plenty of oil left, but prices have fallen and the OBR have pointed this out. Perhaps pessimistic, but who knows? All you want to do is get over the line in the referendum and abuse, denigrate and scream at anyone who does not agree with you. It breaks my heart to see your attitude. This is far too important to be shrieking Trougher, Liar, Bollox etc. etc.
Very very depressing.
When has the price of oil fallen , did I miss that one. The OBR cannot forecast 1 month ahead never mind years or decades. They are consistently revisiting their rubbish forecasts. If the truth hurts and you are a poor lonely unionist who sees the liars and troughers heading for the exit so be it. The future is bright and it is not in the union. Soar Alba.
I think you prove my point. Beyond parody...
So you are just another sad unionist with nothing to add ,. quick lie about price of oil and then just flannel after being called out , jog on
ps: Trying to use OBR as your yardstick shows how dense you are , have they ever got a forecast correct I ask.
Virtually any seat where Labour are within 20% of the Lib Dems is pretty much a write-off for them (Simon Hughes's falls just within that threshold).
I can see the Tories taking a smattering: West Aberdeenshire, Berwickshire, Berwick-upon-Tweed, Solihull, Eastbourne, Sutton & Cheam, maybe Hazel Grove.
malc, it's headline news today that "The UK's inflation rate fell to a fresh four-year low of 1.7% in February, driven by a drop in the price of petrol"...
One for the dear departed tim. Ozzie plays bingo in wales.
It all went a bit wrong after he won and called out "mansion".
"LIKE"
No, no, no, Jack.
George is a member of the unlanded gentry, a metropolitan Pauline seeking the approval of estate owning Etonians. He would never use the word "mansion" to describe a house.
The Duke of Marlborough would not ask you to stay at "my palace" in Oxfordshire not Norfork "my castle" in West Sussex.
Neil is undoubtedly being witty but his story falls on the same grounds as accusations that Andrew Mitchell used the word "pleb" to describe a policeman. It doesn't fit in context.
I was nearly disinherited when, in my youth, I took a girlfriend home who referred to our house as a "mansion". And my father was even more 'aspirant' than Gideon.
And have you seen what Neil has been saying about hereditary peers? He really should not be encouraged in these lines.
"Nigel Farage and his followers are drawing their strength from the "left behind""
It's important for Ukip to understand that a lot of these people had a good life themselves but are looking *forward* at their kid's and grandkid's futures disappearing down the hole the political class are digging. If they take the reverse identity politics meme that's being spun here they'll end up knocking pennies off Bingo. It's about the future not the past or even the present.
"low qualified"
Needing qualifications is quite recent. Most of my older rellies dropped out of school at the first opportunity and got qualified in the armed forces. The meme being pushed is "thick" but it ain't necessarily so.
"and angry voters"
The third thing is crime. There's no point getting into arguments about statistics because the police gave up on crime that contradicts PC ideology a long time ago but if Ukip accepts mentally that you can't dramatically increase the number of young men and the ratio of young male to young female without consequences then they'll have their head in the right place.
(An east-west / southeast-northwest cline in Ukip support is interesting and probably does mean something but my guess is it's a historical underlay.)
" both Miliband's and Yvette Cooper's seats are in the country's top 20 most Ukip-friendly"
Now those would be entertaining election night results. Fingers crossed.
Labour in Doncaster North under Kevin Hughes used to get almost 70% of the GE voter, since EdM's parachuting in they've dropped to the mid-40s. Who knows what the future holds?
The future holds a very easy Labour hold, in all circumstances except those in the fantasy world that exists only in your head.
One for the dear departed tim. Ozzie plays bingo in wales.
It all went a bit wrong after he won and called out "mansion".
"LIKE"
No, no, no, Jack.
George is a member of the unlanded gentry, a metropolitan Pauline seeking the approval of estate owning Etonians. He would never use the word "mansion" to describe a house.
The Duke of Marlborough would not ask you to stay at "my palace" in Oxfordshire not Norfork "my castle" in West Sussex.
Neil is undoubtedly being witty but his story falls on the same grounds as accusations that Andrew Mitchell used the word "pleb" to describe a policeman. It doesn't fit in context.
I was nearly disinherited when, in my youth, I took a girlfriend home who referred to our house as a "mansion". And my father was even more 'aspirant' than Gideon.
And have you seen what Neil has been saying about hereditary peers? He really should not be encouraged in these lines.
Mr Pole
since we're on the subject of Oxford real estate it looks like the Oxford City council is finally getting serious about getting rid of those rickety old buildings clogging up the centre of town. Hopefully they'll knock them down and put up something useful like another car plant what with all those new tax incentives.
One for the dear departed tim. Ozzie plays bingo in wales.
It all went a bit wrong after he won and called out "mansion".
"LIKE"
No, no, no, Jack.
George is a member of the unlanded gentry, a metropolitan Pauline seeking the approval of estate owning Etonians. He would never use the word "mansion" to describe a house.
The Duke of Marlborough would not ask you to stay at "my palace" in Oxfordshire not Norfork "my castle" in West Sussex.
Neil is undoubtedly being witty but his story falls on the same grounds as accusations that Andrew Mitchell used the word "pleb" to describe a policeman. It doesn't fit in context.
I was nearly disinherited when, in my youth, I took a girlfriend home who referred to our house as a "mansion". And my father was even more 'aspirant' than Gideon.
And have you seen what Neil has been saying about hereditary peers? He really should not be encouraged in these lines.
Actually the whole situation was misreported. Ozzie didn't say "Mansion" but "Manse" to acknowledge the sorry plight of bingo halls under Labour's "son of the manse".
Twitter Danny Alexander @dannyalexander 27s By voting against the Budget tonight, Labour voted against coalition's great liberal pensions reform, completing a week of flip-flops
One for the dear departed tim. Ozzie plays bingo in wales.
It all went a bit wrong after he won and called out "mansion".
"LIKE"
No, no, no, Jack.
George is a member of the unlanded gentry, a metropolitan Pauline seeking the approval of estate owning Etonians. He would never use the word "mansion" to describe a house.
The Duke of Marlborough would not ask you to stay at "my palace" in Oxfordshire not Norfork "my castle" in West Sussex.
Neil is undoubtedly being witty but his story falls on the same grounds as accusations that Andrew Mitchell used the word "pleb" to describe a policeman. It doesn't fit in context.
I was nearly disinherited when, in my youth, I took a girlfriend home who referred to our house as a "mansion". And my father was even more 'aspirant' than Gideon.
And have you seen what Neil has been saying about hereditary peers? He really should not be encouraged in these lines.
Mr Pole
since we're on the subject of Oxford real estate it looks like the Oxford City council is finally getting serious about getting rid of those rickety old buildings clogging up the centre of town. Hopefully they'll knock them down and put up something useful like another car plant what with all those new tax incentives.
One for the dear departed tim. Ozzie plays bingo in wales.
It all went a bit wrong after he won and called out "mansion".
"LIKE"
No, no, no, Jack.
George is a member of the unlanded gentry, a metropolitan Pauline seeking the approval of estate owning Etonians. He would never use the word "mansion" to describe a house.
The Duke of Marlborough would not ask you to stay at "my palace" in Oxfordshire not Norfork "my castle" in West Sussex.
Neil is undoubtedly being witty but his story falls on the same grounds as accusations that Andrew Mitchell used the word "pleb" to describe a policeman. It doesn't fit in context.
I was nearly disinherited when, in my youth, I took a girlfriend home who referred to our house as a "mansion". And my father was even more 'aspirant' than Gideon.
And have you seen what Neil has been saying about hereditary peers? He really should not be encouraged in these lines.
Mr Pole
since we're on the subject of Oxford real estate it looks like the Oxford City council is finally getting serious about getting rid of those rickety old buildings clogging up the centre of town. Hopefully they'll knock them down and put up something useful like another car plant what with all those new tax incentives.
One for the dear departed tim. Ozzie plays bingo in wales.
It all went a bit wrong after he won and called out "mansion".
"LIKE"
No, no, no, Jack.
George is a member of the unlanded gentry, a metropolitan Pauline seeking the approval of estate owning Etonians. He would never use the word "mansion" to describe a house.
The Duke of Marlborough would not ask you to stay at "my palace" in Oxfordshire not Norfork "my castle" in West Sussex.
Neil is undoubtedly being witty but his story falls on the same grounds as accusations that Andrew Mitchell used the word "pleb" to describe a policeman. It doesn't fit in context.
I was nearly disinherited when, in my youth, I took a girlfriend home who referred to our house as a "mansion". And my father was even more 'aspirant' than Gideon.
And have you seen what Neil has been saying about hereditary peers? He really should not be encouraged in these lines.
Mr Pole
since we're on the subject of Oxford real estate it looks like the Oxford City council is finally getting serious about getting rid of those rickety old buildings clogging up the centre of town. Hopefully they'll knock them down and put up something useful like another car plant what with all those new tax incentives.
"Nigel Farage and his followers are drawing their strength from the "left behind""
It's important for Ukip to understand that a lot of these people had a good life themselves but are looking *forward* at their kid's and grandkid's futures disappearing down the hole the political class are digging. If they take the reverse identity politics meme that's being spun here they'll end up knocking pennies off Bingo. It's about the future not the past or even the present.
"low qualified"
Needing qualifications is quite recent. Most of my older rellies dropped out of school at the first opportunity and got qualified in the armed forces. The meme being pushed is "thick" but it ain't necessarily so.
"and angry voters"
The third thing is crime. There's no point getting into arguments about statistics because the police gave up on crime that contradicts PC ideology a long time ago but if Ukip accepts mentally that you can't dramatically increase the number of young men and the ratio of young male to young female without consequences then they'll have their head in the right place.
(An east-west / southeast-northwest cline in Ukip support is interesting and probably does mean something but my guess is it's a historical underlay.)
" both Miliband's and Yvette Cooper's seats are in the country's top 20 most Ukip-friendly"
Now those would be entertaining election night results. Fingers crossed.
Labour in Doncaster North under Kevin Hughes used to get almost 70% of the GE voter, since EdM's parachuting in they've dropped to the mid-40s. Who knows what the future holds?
The future holds a very easy Labour hold, in all circumstances except those in the fantasy world that exists only in your head.
Kevin Hughes was born in Doncaster, the son of a coal miner. He was educated at Owston Park secondary modern, and took up his father's profession in 1970. He remained a miner until 1990, but also attended University of Sheffield for three years under a day-release scheme. I wonder why the good folk of Doncaster preferred Hughes to Primrose Hill inheritance multi-millionaire Miliband ?
"Nigel Farage and his followers are drawing their strength from the "left behind""
It's important for Ukip to understand that a lot of these people had a good life themselves but are looking *forward* at their kid's and grandkid's futures disappearing down the hole the political class are digging. If they take the reverse identity politics meme that's being spun here they'll end up knocking pennies off Bingo. It's about the future not the past or even the present.
"low qualified"
Needing qualifications is quite recent. Most of my older rellies dropped out of school at the first opportunity and got qualified in the armed forces. The meme being pushed is "thick" but it ain't necessarily so.
"and angry voters"
The third thing is crime. There's no point getting into arguments about statistics because the police gave up on crime that contradicts PC ideology a long time ago but if Ukip accepts mentally that you can't dramatically increase the number of young men and the ratio of young male to young female without consequences then they'll have their head in the right place.
(An east-west / southeast-northwest cline in Ukip support is interesting and probably does mean something but my guess is it's a historical underlay.)
" both Miliband's and Yvette Cooper's seats are in the country's top 20 most Ukip-friendly"
Now those would be entertaining election night results. Fingers crossed.
Labour in Doncaster North under Kevin Hughes used to get almost 70% of the GE voter, since EdM's parachuting in they've dropped to the mid-40s. Who knows what the future holds?
The future holds a very easy Labour hold, in all circumstances except those in the fantasy world that exists only in your head.
Kevin Hughes was born in Doncaster, the son of a coal miner. He was educated at Owston Park secondary modern, and took up his father's profession in 1970. He remained a miner until 1990, but also attended University of Sheffield for three years under a day-release scheme. I wonder why the good folk of Doncaster preferred Hughes to Primrose Hill inheritance multi-millionaire Miliband ?
Kevin Hughes was born in Doncaster, the son of a coal miner. He was educated at Owston Park secondary modern, and took up his father's profession in 1970. He remained a miner until 1990, but also attended University of Sheffield for three years under a day-release scheme.
I wonder why the good folk of Doncaster preferred Hughes to Primrose Hill inheritance multi-millionaire Miliband ?
They may well have preferred him, but that won't stop them voting in Ed M or any other Labour candidate, even a block of wood with a Labour Rosette, in until the end of time, most likely, so who cares that the winning share has dropped from the 70% range. It is not impossible it will fall further, but it is still a massive advantage held there.
I'm very surprised that Shadsy has priced the Tories so long in North East Fife (LD maj = 9,048)
LD 1/4 SNP 5/1 Lab 10/1 Con 16/1
I cannot understand why the CON price is longer than the LAB price. The Tories finished well ahead of Labour in both 2010 and 2011, and all the signs are of a modest SLab to SCon national swing since 2010. Has he simply mixed up the two prices?
I'm very surprised that Shadsy has priced the Tories so long in North East Fife (LD maj = 9,048)
LD 1/4 SNP 5/1 Lab 10/1 Con 16/1
I cannot understand why the CON price is longer than the LAB price. The Tories finished well ahead of Labour in both 2010 and 2011, and all the signs are of a modest SLab to SCon national swing since 2010. Has he simply mixed up the two prices?
No, quite. With Ming going, incumbency collapse magnified by the Lib Dem implosion in Scotland. SNP.the favourites to capitalise but Tories value at 16s. It's not Govan
About to spend a long weekend in Nice - any recommendations for a good hotel?
Yea, Nice is nice and have had very pleasant times there but hopes to visit Villefranche-sur-mer a few miles to the east. It's a small beach resort. Go by local TER train (cheap) from Nice. Check out The Hotel Welcome - "legendary haunt of Jean Cocteau".
I'm very surprised that Shadsy has priced the Tories so long in North East Fife (LD maj = 9,048)
LD 1/4 SNP 5/1 Lab 10/1 Con 16/1
I cannot understand why the CON price is longer than the LAB price. The Tories finished well ahead of Labour in both 2010 and 2011, and all the signs are of a modest SLab to SCon national swing since 2010. Has he simply mixed up the two prices?
No, quite. With Ming going, incumbency collapse magnified by the Lib Dem implosion in Scotland. SNP.the favourites to capitalise but Tories value at 16s. It's not Govan
I'd be bloody tempted to put a decent stake on CON in this seat at 16/1, simply as a trading bet. I cannot see them winning it due to their dire GOTV operation, but I can easily see that silly 16/1 price coming in.
I'm very surprised that Shadsy has priced the Tories so long in North East Fife (LD maj = 9,048)
LD 1/4 SNP 5/1 Lab 10/1 Con 16/1
I cannot understand why the CON price is longer than the LAB price. The Tories finished well ahead of Labour in both 2010 and 2011, and all the signs are of a modest SLab to SCon national swing since 2010. Has he simply mixed up the two prices?
No, quite. With Ming going, incumbency collapse magnified by the Lib Dem implosion in Scotland. SNP.the favourites to capitalise but Tories value at 16s. It's not Govan
I'd be bloody tempted to put a decent stake on CON in this seat at 16/1, simply as a trading bet. I cannot see them winning it due to their dire GOTV operation, but I can easily see that silly 16/1 price coming in.
Yep, very much so. SNP win with covering value bet on Blue.
I'm very surprised that Shadsy has priced the Tories so long in North East Fife (LD maj = 9,048)
LD 1/4 SNP 5/1 Lab 10/1 Con 16/1
I cannot understand why the CON price is longer than the LAB price. The Tories finished well ahead of Labour in both 2010 and 2011, and all the signs are of a modest SLab to SCon national swing since 2010. Has he simply mixed up the two prices?
2012 council results from the wards making up NE Fife parliamentary seat ( there is one ward split with another seat )
LD 8,000 SNP 6,200 Con 4,000 Lab 3,500 plus an Independent in Cuppar who took 1,556 votes ( his 2nd preferences split 2:1:1:1 in favour of the Lib Dems ) . Greens/UKIP/Others took another 1,700 votes
I'm very surprised that Shadsy has priced the Tories so long in North East Fife (LD maj = 9,048)
LD 1/4 SNP 5/1 Lab 10/1 Con 16/1
I cannot understand why the CON price is longer than the LAB price. The Tories finished well ahead of Labour in both 2010 and 2011, and all the signs are of a modest SLab to SCon national swing since 2010. Has he simply mixed up the two prices?
2012 council results from the wards making up NE Fife parliamentary seat ( there is one ward split with another seat )
LD 8,000 SNP 6,200 Con 4,000 Lab 3,500 plus an Independent in Cuppar who took 1,556 votes ( his 2nd preferences split 2:1:1:1 in favour of the Lib Dems ) . Greens/UKIP/Others took another 1,700 votes
Well that just confirms what I said: I cannot understand why Shadsy has priced CON longer than LAB in that seat.
With the exception of Berwick, Rox and Selkirk my maxim for 2015 in Scotland is 'where Lib Dems were strong, with SNP you'll not go wrong'
Do you think that the SNP are stronger challengers than the Tories in West Aberdeenshire? And stronger challengers than Labour in Edinburgh West, in Inverness,NB&S, and in East Dunbartonshire?
With the exception of Berwick, Rox and Selkirk my maxim for 2015 in Scotland is 'where Lib Dems were strong, with SNP you'll not go wrong'
Do you think that the SNP are stronger challengers than the Tories in West Aberdeenshire? And stronger challengers than Labour in Edinburgh West, in Inverness,NB&S, and in East Dunbartonshire?
Taking them in order, probably slightly (do t get the sense of any Tory movement there, more in Salmonds old stomping ground), no as I don't think of this as strong Lib Dem, yes and no as I don't see Swinson as strong Lib Dem holder
@stuartdickson All of which is preliminary thought which will be affected by the Euros and the referendum. Tories to take Berwick etc, I see SNP taking some of the old 50% plus Lib seats like Fife, and SNP will take Argyll
With the exception of Berwick, Rox and Selkirk my maxim for 2015 in Scotland is 'where Lib Dems were strong, with SNP you'll not go wrong'
Do you think that the SNP are stronger challengers than the Tories in West Aberdeenshire? And stronger challengers than Labour in Edinburgh West, in Inverness,NB&S, and in East Dunbartonshire?
Taking them in order, probably slightly (do t get the sense of any Tory movement there, more in Salmonds old stomping ground), no as I don't think of this as strong Lib Dem, yes and no as I don't see Swinson as strong Lib Dem holder
Thanks. I understand your logic. So, you see the Tories genuinely challenging the SNP in Banff and Buchan? She has the advantage of 1st time incumbency.
With the exception of Berwick, Rox and Selkirk my maxim for 2015 in Scotland is 'where Lib Dems were strong, with SNP you'll not go wrong'
Do you think that the SNP are stronger challengers than the Tories in West Aberdeenshire? And stronger challengers than Labour in Edinburgh West, in Inverness,NB&S, and in East Dunbartonshire?
Taking them in order, probably slightly (do t get the sense of any Tory movement there, more in Salmonds old stomping ground), no as I don't think of this as strong Lib Dem, yes and no as I don't see Swinson as strong Lib Dem holder
Thanks. I understand your logic. So, you see the Tories genuinely challenging the SNP in Banff and Buchan? She has the advantage of 1st time incumbency.
Only if the Referendum is a NO. If it's Yes, forget it. Banff 2015 is my possible Pemtlands 2011
I'm very surprised that Shadsy has priced the Tories so long in North East Fife (LD maj = 9,048)
LD 1/4 SNP 5/1 Lab 10/1 Con 16/1
I cannot understand why the CON price is longer than the LAB price. The Tories finished well ahead of Labour in both 2010 and 2011, and all the signs are of a modest SLab to SCon national swing since 2010. Has he simply mixed up the two prices?
No, quite. With Ming going, incumbency collapse magnified by the Lib Dem implosion in Scotland. SNP.the favourites to capitalise but Tories value at 16s. It's not Govan
I'd be bloody tempted to put a decent stake on CON in this seat at 16/1, simply as a trading bet. I cannot see them winning it due to their dire GOTV operation, but I can easily see that silly 16/1 price coming in.
With my admittedly very limited knowledge of NE Fife, I have it pencilled in as a potential Labour gain. Mainly because there'll be a wealth of activists from nearby to pour in and campaign for them.
I do think that's probably the hardest to call of the Lib Dem-held seats in Scotland though. I've got SNP gains for Gordon and Argyll & Bute, Labour gains for W Edinburgh, Dunbartonshire and Inverness (though with the SNP having a shot in the latter), and Tory gains in W Aberdeenshire and B'wickshire. Comfortable Lib Dem holds in Ross Skye & Lochaber and Orkney & Shetland Islands, and a narrow hold in Caithness.
There are statements for each candidate. Which is your favourite?
As this is an election for a crossbench peer only the current 29 elected hereditary crossbench peers can vote.
Election by AV, results announced fortnight tomorrow.
I found reading those statements rather depressing. Earl Temple would probably get my vote.
Charles Low (Aldington) is a great guy - he chairs the Institute of Philanthropy. I've known him for 15 years and he has been close to the French side of our family since he was at INSEAD 40 years ago. A little eccentric, but would add a lot to the House.
I'm very surprised that Shadsy has priced the Tories so long in North East Fife (LD maj = 9,048)
LD 1/4 SNP 5/1 Lab 10/1 Con 16/1
I cannot understand why the CON price is longer than the LAB price. The Tories finished well ahead of Labour in both 2010 and 2011, and all the signs are of a modest SLab to SCon national swing since 2010. Has he simply mixed up the two prices?
No, quite. With Ming going, incumbency collapse magnified by the Lib Dem implosion in Scotland. SNP.the favourites to capitalise but Tories value at 16s. It's not Govan
I'd be bloody tempted to put a decent stake on CON in this seat at 16/1, simply as a trading bet. I cannot see them winning it due to their dire GOTV operation, but I can easily see that silly 16/1 price coming in.
With my admittedly very limited knowledge of NE Fife, I have it pencilled in as a potential Labour gain. Mainly because there'll be a wealth of activists from nearby to pour in and campaign for them.
I do think that's probably the hardest to call of the Lib Dem-held seats in Scotland though. I've got SNP gains for Gordon and Argyll & Bute, Labour gains for W Edinburgh, Dunbartonshire and Inverness (though with the SNP having a shot in the latter), and Tory gains in W Aberdeenshire and B'wickshire. Comfortable Lib Dem holds in Ross Skye & Lochaber and Orkney & Shetland Islands, and a narrow hold in Caithness.
I understand your logic in ne fife but even the best gotv in the world cannot win it for labour when they are starting from such a weak base.
Caithness? Agree close call but did you see the size of the snp maj in 2011? Over 7000.
One for the dear departed tim. Ozzie plays bingo in wales.
It all went a bit wrong after he won and called out "mansion".
"LIKE"
No, no, no, Jack.
George is a member of the unlanded gentry, a metropolitan Pauline seeking the approval of estate owning Etonians. He would never use the word "mansion" to describe a house.
The Duke of Marlborough would not ask you to stay at "my palace" in Oxfordshire not Norfork "my castle" in West Sussex.
Neil is undoubtedly being witty but his story falls on the same grounds as accusations that Andrew Mitchell used the word "pleb" to describe a policeman. It doesn't fit in context.
I was nearly disinherited when, in my youth, I took a girlfriend home who referred to our house as a "mansion". And my father was even more 'aspirant' than Gideon.
And have you seen what Neil has been saying about hereditary peers? He really should not be encouraged in these lines.
They'd all use the term "my place in [the country/town/etc]"
Any idea when individual constituency odds will be available? Dover & Deal would be of interest
Indeed. I think this one is going to be very close but would put Charlie Elphicke as fave, depending of course on how well UKIP do. How would you price it up?
I'm very surprised that Shadsy has priced the Tories so long in North East Fife (LD maj = 9,048)
LD 1/4 SNP 5/1 Lab 10/1 Con 16/1
I cannot understand why the CON price is longer than the LAB price. The Tories finished well ahead of Labour in both 2010 and 2011, and all the signs are of a modest SLab to SCon national swing since 2010. Has he simply mixed up the two prices?
No, quite. With Ming going, incumbency collapse magnified by the Lib Dem implosion in Scotland. SNP.the favourites to capitalise but Tories value at 16s. It's not Govan
I'd be bloody tempted to put a decent stake on CON in this seat at 16/1, simply as a trading bet. I cannot see them winning it due to their dire GOTV operation, but I can easily see that silly 16/1 price coming in.
With my admittedly very limited knowledge of NE Fife, I have it pencilled in as a potential Labour gain. Mainly because there'll be a wealth of activists from nearby to pour in and campaign for them.
I do think that's probably the hardest to call of the Lib Dem-held seats in Scotland though. I've got SNP gains for Gordon and Argyll & Bute, Labour gains for W Edinburgh, Dunbartonshire and Inverness (though with the SNP having a shot in the latter), and Tory gains in W Aberdeenshire and B'wickshire. Comfortable Lib Dem holds in Ross Skye & Lochaber and Orkney & Shetland Islands, and a narrow hold in Caithness.
Labour can pour in as many activists as they like into NE Fife and as they would if they did the same in Esher or Epsom they would come nowhere near winning .
About to spend a long weekend in Nice - any recommendations for a good hotel?
Yea, Nice is nice and have had very pleasant times there but hopes to visit Villefranche-sur-mer a few miles to the east. It's a small beach resort. Go by local TER train (cheap) from Nice. Check out The Hotel Welcome - "legendary haunt of Jean Cocteau".
As always, depends on budget, but I'd suggest you'd do better to get a cheapish hotel and then - if you can -spend the money on dinner at the Chevre d'Or in Eze.
The platter of heirloom tomatoes is the best I have ever had!
No, quite. With Ming going, incumbency collapse magnified by the Lib Dem implosion in Scotland. SNP.the favourites to capitalise but Tories value at 16s. It's not Govan
I'd be bloody tempted to put a decent stake on CON in this seat at 16/1, simply as a trading bet. I cannot see them winning it due to their dire GOTV operation, but I can easily see that silly 16/1 price coming in.
With my admittedly very limited knowledge of NE Fife, I have it pencilled in as a potential Labour gain. Mainly because there'll be a wealth of activists from nearby to pour in and campaign for them.
I do think that's probably the hardest to call of the Lib Dem-held seats in Scotland though. I've got SNP gains for Gordon and Argyll & Bute, Labour gains for W Edinburgh, Dunbartonshire and Inverness (though with the SNP having a shot in the latter), and Tory gains in W Aberdeenshire and B'wickshire. Comfortable Lib Dem holds in Ross Skye & Lochaber and Orkney & Shetland Islands, and a narrow hold in Caithness.
I understand your logic in ne fife but even the best gotv in the world cannot win it for labour when they are starting from such a weak base.
Caithness? Agree close call but did you see the size of the snp maj in 2011? Over 7000.
Tbh, my NE Fife tip is predicated on the assumption that Labour would only need a 25-26% share to take the seat (which I think might be just about doable in a best case scenario for them), if that seat turns into a close 4-way fight. (Might UKIP also poll fairly well there because of what I understand is quite a large English population, thus dragging down the winning line further?) I don't say it with much confidence, though.
I think the difficulty with Caithness is that, for anti-LibDem tactical voters (is it safe to assume there will be quite a lot of these now, just as for many years in Scotland people have typically ganged up tactically and voted for whoever was best placed to beat the Tories?), it might be quite hard in some of those Highlands seats for the average voter to discern whether Labour or the SNP are in a stronger position to kick the LDs out, since Labour performed better than the SNP in 2010 in some of them, but the SNP have outperformed them (often by far) in Scottish Parliament and council elections. In Caithness, I can see Labour and the SNP both increasing their vote, probably the SNP moreso, but neither mustering enough votes to get past the Lib Dems on about 30%ish, assuming the sitting Lib Dem MP stays on.
JackW, I did indeed. I felt quite honoured to be up there in a shared nomination for expulsion from PB alongside both you and Mark Senior, two posters who happen to know far more about both polling and betting than the charmer from Sweden.
Twitter Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 5m YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead up one to three points: CON 35%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 10%
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 4h BREAKING: @Sun_Politics will reveal the winner of the Clegg v Farage EU debate tomorrow night with an exclusive live poll by @YouGov.
No, quite. With Ming going, incumbency collapse magnified by the Lib Dem implosion in Scotland. SNP.the favourites to capitalise but Tories value at 16s. It's not Govan
I'd be bloody tempted to put a decent stake on CON in this seat at 16/1, simply as a trading bet. I cannot see them winning it due to their dire GOTV operation, but I can easily see that silly 16/1 price coming in.
With my admittedly very limited knowledge of NE Fife, I have it pencilled in as a potential Labour gain. Mainly because there'll be a wealth of activists from nearby to pour in and campaign for them.
I do think that's probably the hardest to call of the Lib Dem-held seats in Scotland though. I've got SNP gains for Gordon and Argyll & Bute, Labour gains for W Edinburgh, Dunbartonshire and Inverness (though with the SNP having a shot in the latter), and Tory gains in W Aberdeenshire and B'wickshire. Comfortable Lib Dem holds in Ross Skye & Lochaber and Orkney & Shetland Islands, and a narrow hold in Caithness.
I understand your logic in ne fife but even the best gotv in the world cannot win it for labour when they are starting from such a weak base.
Caithness? Agree close call but did you see the size of the snp maj in 2011? Over 7000.
Tbh, my NE Fife tip is predicated on the assumption that Labour would only need a 25-26% share to take the seat (which I think might be just about doable in a best case scenario for them), if that seat turns into a close 4-way fight. (Might UKIP also poll fairly well there because of what I understand is quite a large English population, thus dragging down the winning line further?) I don't say it with much confidence, though.
Labour have never ever polled even 20% in any election in NE Fife even when they they had Scottish leaders of the Labour Party .
George is a member of the unlanded gentry, a metropolitan Pauline seeking the approval of estate owning Etonians. He would never use the word "mansion" to describe a house.
My Russian mum used to be entertained by the insistence of her new husband's family's insistence on calling Cavers Castle "our house a bit out of the way in the country". She envisaged a pleasantly spacious cottage, and was a bit bemused to find turrets and 64 rooms set in 100,000 acres.
Labour is on the same score as last night, is it not? It needs to forget about the Tories - there is hardly any switching between them - and concentrate on pushing its score past 40 again.
Labour is on the same score as last night, is it not? It needs to forget about the Tories - there is hardly any switching between them - and concentrate on pushing its score past 40 again.
Or try to work out a strategy that will return more than 32% or 33% in May 2015.
About to spend a long weekend in Nice - any recommendations for a good hotel?
Yea, Nice is nice and have had very pleasant times there but hopes to visit Villefranche-sur-mer a few miles to the east. It's a small beach resort. Go by local TER train (cheap) from Nice. Check out The Hotel Welcome - "legendary haunt of Jean Cocteau".
As always, depends on budget, but I'd suggest you'd do better to get a cheapish hotel and then - if you can -spend the money on dinner at the Chevre d'Or in Eze.
The platter of heirloom tomatoes is the best I have ever had!
Possibly not up to that class but I visited tons of restaurants there and my favourite was one set out on its own beautiful courtyard slightly off the beaten track on the fringe of the old town. I remember it being called the Maison Rouge or some such but Google says no... Ring any bells?
"Nigel Farage and his followers are drawing their strength from the "left behind""
It's important for Ukip to understand that a lot of these people had a good life themselves but are looking *forward* at their kid's and grandkid's futures disappearing down the hole the political class are digging. If they take the reverse identity politics meme that's being spun here they'll end up knocking pennies off Bingo. It's about the future not the past or even the present.
"low qualified"
Needing qualifications is quite recent. Most of my older rellies dropped out of school at the first opportunity and got qualified in the armed forces. The meme being pushed is "thick" but it ain't necessarily so.
"and angry voters"
The third thing is crime. There's no point getting into arguments about statistics because the police gave up on crime that contradicts PC ideology a long time ago but if Ukip accepts mentally that you can't dramatically increase the number of young men and the ratio of young male to young female without consequences then they'll have their head in the right place.
(An east-west / southeast-northwest cline in Ukip support is interesting and probably does mean something but my guess is it's a historical underlay.)
Rightly, many people assume their children and grandchildren will be worse off than they are. And, they get incensed by people who think they should just suck it up.
Comments
ps: Trying to use OBR as your yardstick shows how dense you are , have they ever got a forecast correct I ask.
Agent Mata to hopefully do the job for us Chelsea boys.
I can see the Tories taking a smattering: West Aberdeenshire, Berwickshire, Berwick-upon-Tweed, Solihull, Eastbourne, Sutton & Cheam, maybe Hazel Grove.
George is a member of the unlanded gentry, a metropolitan Pauline seeking the approval of estate owning Etonians. He would never use the word "mansion" to describe a house.
The Duke of Marlborough would not ask you to stay at "my palace" in Oxfordshire not Norfork "my castle" in West Sussex.
Neil is undoubtedly being witty but his story falls on the same grounds as accusations that Andrew Mitchell used the word "pleb" to describe a policeman. It doesn't fit in context.
I was nearly disinherited when, in my youth, I took a girlfriend home who referred to our house as a "mansion". And my father was even more 'aspirant' than Gideon.
And have you seen what Neil has been saying about hereditary peers? He really should not be encouraged in these lines.
since we're on the subject of Oxford real estate it looks like the Oxford City council is finally getting serious about getting rid of those rickety old buildings clogging up the centre of town. Hopefully they'll knock them down and put up something useful like another car plant what with all those new tax incentives.
maybe Osborne's done something right for once
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/03/how-local-government-is-threatening-oxford-universitys-competitiveness/
Danny Alexander @dannyalexander 27s
By voting against the Budget tonight, Labour voted against coalition's great liberal pensions reform, completing a week of flip-flops
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 4h
To @Nigel_Farage . Could you raise this in tomorrow's debate with @nick_clegg pic.twitter.com/4TnBEFmcVg
Did you note on Sunday you were favoured, together with @MarkSenior and myself, with nomination for expulsion from PB by that charmer from Sweden ?
I understand there were many complaints to OGH from other PBers who felt devastated to be omitted from the hit list.
Well frankly, you've either got it or you haven't !!
Then everyone would be happy, even the Tories.
When do we start ?
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/nigel-farage-my-live-debate-with-nick-clegg-is-upon-us-does-he-realise-what-is-about-to-hit-him-9214761.html
In Oxford, 10:30.
I wonder why the good folk of Doncaster preferred Hughes to Primrose Hill inheritance multi-millionaire Miliband ?
Lab 1/25
LD 20/1
SNP 33/1
Con 66/1
UKIP 100/1
I wonder why the good folk of Doncaster preferred Hughes to Primrose Hill inheritance multi-millionaire Miliband ?
They may well have preferred him, but that won't stop them voting in Ed M or any other Labour candidate, even a block of wood with a Labour Rosette, in until the end of time, most likely, so who cares that the winning share has dropped from the 70% range. It is not impossible it will fall further, but it is still a massive advantage held there.
LD 1/4
SNP 5/1
Lab 10/1
Con 16/1
I cannot understand why the CON price is longer than the LAB price. The Tories finished well ahead of Labour in both 2010 and 2011, and all the signs are of a modest SLab to SCon national swing since 2010. Has he simply mixed up the two prices?
SNP Gain from CON, on a swing of 7.4%
SNP 11,197
Con 9,439
Lab 7,993
LD 1,420
LD 8,000 SNP 6,200 Con 4,000 Lab 3,500 plus an Independent in Cuppar who took 1,556 votes ( his 2nd preferences split 2:1:1:1 in favour of the Lib Dems ) . Greens/UKIP/Others took another 1,700 votes
(By the way, it is spelt 'Cupar'.)
All of which is preliminary thought which will be affected by the Euros and the referendum.
Tories to take Berwick etc, I see SNP taking some of the old 50% plus Lib seats like Fife, and SNP will take Argyll
Banff 2015 is my possible Pemtlands 2011
I do think that's probably the hardest to call of the Lib Dem-held seats in Scotland though. I've got SNP gains for Gordon and Argyll & Bute, Labour gains for W Edinburgh, Dunbartonshire and Inverness (though with the SNP having a shot in the latter), and Tory gains in W Aberdeenshire and B'wickshire. Comfortable Lib Dem holds in Ross Skye & Lochaber and Orkney & Shetland Islands, and a narrow hold in Caithness.
Caithness? Agree close call but did you see the size of the snp maj in 2011? Over 7000.
Spreadex are 7/5 for Man City to win the title.
--------------------
The platter of heirloom tomatoes is the best I have ever had!
http://www.chevredor.com
I think the difficulty with Caithness is that, for anti-LibDem tactical voters (is it safe to assume there will be quite a lot of these now, just as for many years in Scotland people have typically ganged up tactically and voted for whoever was best placed to beat the Tories?), it might be quite hard in some of those Highlands seats for the average voter to discern whether Labour or the SNP are in a stronger position to kick the LDs out, since Labour performed better than the SNP in 2010 in some of them, but the SNP have outperformed them (often by far) in Scottish Parliament and council elections. In Caithness, I can see Labour and the SNP both increasing their vote, probably the SNP moreso, but neither mustering enough votes to get past the Lib Dems on about 30%ish, assuming the sitting Lib Dem MP stays on.
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 5m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead up one to three points: CON 35%, LAB 38%, LD 10%, UKIP 10%
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 4h
BREAKING: @Sun_Politics will reveal the winner of the Clegg v Farage EU debate tomorrow night with an exclusive live poll by @YouGov.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-75xCPD_L4
Or try to work out a strategy that will return more than 32% or 33% in May 2015.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/barackobama/10721186/Merkel-miffed-at-Barack-Obama-and-David-Cameron-nuclear-war-game.html