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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ladbrokes open betting on all 57 LD seats and make the yellows favourites to hold on to 35

In 35 of them, all but one of them defences against the Tories, the Ladbrokes opening prices make the LDs favourite and in a further three Clegg’s party is join favourite.

Read the full story here

isam

@Shadsy

Any chance of prices in Hornchurch & Upminster, Romford, & Dagenham and Rainham?

Pulpstar

"Tim Farron who is priced at 1/20 to hold on to Westmorland & Lonsdale."

Will I be able to get that price a week before the election ?

isam

Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 4m

We're clearly onto something if Dan Hodges thinks we are wrong

Think this is the relevant piece

@SouthamObserver mentioned this East/West discrepancy earlier

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/25/uk-east-coast-ukip-incursion?CMP=twt_gu

TGOHF

Pulpstar said:

"Tim Farron who is priced at 1/20 to hold on to Westmorland & Lonsdale."

Will I be able to get that price a week before the election ?

That price is to smoke out any opposition.

[Deleted User]

So it seems this aeroplane spent over 20 minutes above 43,000 feet whilst still pretty much next to Thailand. Which means that everyone on board was dead for the final few hours of flight (presumably on autopilot). Blimey. Pilot suicide?

Pulpstar

I like Shadsy's style as an odds compiler. Doesn't just follow the rest with his prices.

I wonder if his goal is to not only offer great odds but also batter Hills/Stan James/Paddy Power's odds compilers in the pocket

isam

Wow! The Windies lose 4 wickets for 4 runs in the last over

JackW

WI 171:7 after all 20 overs against BN

Fantastic catch by Tamin in the last over.

shadsy

Actually, the strongest favourite is Alistair Carmichael in Orkney & Shetland at 1/100

JackW

TGOHF said:

Pulpstar said:

"Tim Farron who is priced at 1/20 to hold on to Westmorland & Lonsdale."

Will I be able to get that price a week before the election ?

That price is to smoke out any opposition.

Anyone betting against Farron will have been smoking some extraordinarily exotic substance.

JackW

The latest ARSE LibDem 2015 GE projection published this morning is 40 seats.

JackW

Mike.

Your thread link to Ladbrokes is broken and Carmichael is 1/100 to hold O&S.

Richard_Nabavi

One that I wondered about is Portsmouth South. Some special 'local factors', a long-term incumbent no longer the LibDem candidate, a majority which, though fairly big, is not impregnable - should this really be a 1/2 LibDem shot?

JosiasJessop

SeanT said:

fpt Topping;

"A friend of mine had a place there a few years ago and invited me over.

I have no doubt that there are many stonking great apartments and houses in there but his was disappointingly tiny, not to say dingy.

Big shame after the big entrance...."

I've also heard that the Nash Terraces were jerry built: Nash put all his talent and energy and the royal money into the design, and the incredible facades, but the actual construction was shoddy.

As for dinginess, there are some very old aristos in the Terraces who you see wandering drunk and vague around the park, I imagine their inherited apartments are similarly decrepit.

However these properties are now so valuable most have been given incredible makeovers:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-39922966.html

Isn't it this also true about Downing Street? Weren't the townhouses thrown up with a (then) elegant facade but shoddy construction, especially in the foundations, meaning that there's had to be lots of work on them in the past?

If so, they're a perfect symbol of the British government. ;-)

[Deleted User]

MalcolmG won't be pleased:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10721556/Scotlands-goose-that-lays-golden-eggs-has-gone-on-strike-Mr-Salmond.html

Bond_James_Bond

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

So it seems this aeroplane spent over 20 minutes above 43,000 feet whilst still pretty much next to Thailand. Which means that everyone on board was dead for the final few hours of flight (presumably on autopilot). Blimey. Pilot suicide?

I was talking about this with a mate at the weekend.

Imagine if you were the one person on the plane still alive. A passenger. Everyone else dead. Flying through the night on autopilot. Intensely creepy.

Would make a great thriller. Especially if it was on an Airbus 380. Then you could have strange noises coming from the upper deck....

A German U-boat was found abandoned in the Atlantic in WW1 with no evidence of damage but not a sign of the crew.

TOPPING

SeanT said:

fpt Topping;

"A friend of mine had a place there a few years ago and invited me over.

I have no doubt that there are many stonking great apartments and houses in there but his was disappointingly tiny, not to say dingy.

Big shame after the big entrance...."

I've also heard that the Nash Terraces were jerry built: Nash put all his talent and energy and the royal money into the design, and the incredible facades, but the actual construction was shoddy.

As for dinginess, there are some very old aristos in the Terraces who you see wandering drunk and vague around the park, I imagine their inherited apartments are similarly decrepit.

However these properties are now so valuable most have been given incredible makeovers:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-39922966.html

yes v nice - although now, irritatingly after looking at that, enticements to buy £10m houses will litter my casual web surfing...

Anorak

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

So it seems this aeroplane spent over 20 minutes above 43,000 feet whilst still pretty much next to Thailand. Which means that everyone on board was dead for the final few hours of flight (presumably on autopilot). Blimey. Pilot suicide?

I was talking about this with a mate at the weekend.

Imagine if you were the one person on the plane still alive. A passenger. Everyone else dead. Flying through the night on autopilot. Intensely creepy.

Would make a great thriller. Especially if it was on an Airbus 380. Then you could have strange noises coming from the upper deck....

There's book by Thomas Block called Mayday that deals with that. Couple of survivors are ok, plenty more are severely affected by oxygen starvation, turning them into drooling vegetables or kind-of-zombies. It's of the Dan Brown school of writing i.e. a dreadful but compelling page-turner.

Best bit is the end scene where the media and relatives jubilantly welcome the aircraft when it eventually lands, only to see their loved ones shambling around trying to chew on each other.

OblitusSumMe

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

So it seems this aeroplane spent over 20 minutes above 43,000 feet whilst still pretty much next to Thailand. Which means that everyone on board was dead for the final few hours of flight (presumably on autopilot). Blimey. Pilot suicide?

I was talking about this with a mate at the weekend.

Imagine if you were the one person on the plane still alive. A passenger. Everyone else dead. Flying through the night on autopilot. Intensely creepy.

Would make a great thriller. Especially if it was on an Airbus 380. Then you could have strange noises coming from the upper deck....

The only way I reckon you could have one last person alive on a plane would be if that person had killed all the others - perhaps not the thriller you were thinking of?

[Deleted User]

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

So it seems this aeroplane spent over 20 minutes above 43,000 feet whilst still pretty much next to Thailand. Which means that everyone on board was dead for the final few hours of flight (presumably on autopilot). Blimey. Pilot suicide?

I was talking about this with a mate at the weekend.

Imagine if you were the one person on the plane still alive. A passenger. Everyone else dead. Flying through the night on autopilot. Intensely creepy.

Would make a great thriller. Especially if it was on an Airbus 380. Then you could have strange noises coming from the upper deck....

I saw the Aircrash Investigation episode about the Helios flight. A silly pilot error opened a pressure valve and the cabin slowly depresuurised. For some unfathomable reason the pilots didn't work out what was happening and went unconscious. The Greeks scrambled 2 F16s, and those pilots saw one man inside still conscious but unable to move (waving his fingers at the window). Anyway, soon enough they were all dead and the thing flew on for another two hours until it hit a hillside near Athens. Intensely creepy indeed - a true ghost flight. If it's any consolation dying of annoxia is the most pleasant way to die and at least they will have been spared hours of terror.

blackburn63

Any idea when individual constituency odds will be available? Dover & Deal would be of interest

Stuart_Dickson

Both Carmichael and Kennedy are priced shorter than Farron.

JosiasJessop

Patrick said:

So it seems this aeroplane spent over 20 minutes above 43,000 feet whilst still pretty much next to Thailand. Which means that everyone on board was dead for the final few hours of flight (presumably on autopilot). Blimey. Pilot suicide?

Do you have a link for that please?

I'd favour technical failure. But if so, it's a blooming odd one; something that cripples the crew and enough electronics to lose comms, yet allow the plane to keep on flying. Yet it's still more likely in my mind than some sort of weird suicide bid.

On another note, CNN have a rather oversimplified but still interesting explanation of what the geniuses at Inmarsat and the AAIB have done:
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/24/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-satellite-tracking/

TOPPING

Patrick said:

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

So it seems this aeroplane spent over 20 minutes above 43,000 feet whilst still pretty much next to Thailand. Which means that everyone on board was dead for the final few hours of flight (presumably on autopilot). Blimey. Pilot suicide?

I was talking about this with a mate at the weekend.

Imagine if you were the one person on the plane still alive. A passenger. Everyone else dead. Flying through the night on autopilot. Intensely creepy.

Would make a great thriller. Especially if it was on an Airbus 380. Then you could have strange noises coming from the upper deck....

I saw the Aircrash Investigation episode about the Helios flight. A silly pilot error opened a pressure valve and the cabin slowly depresuurised. For some unfathomable reason the pilots didn't work out what was happening and went unconscious. The Greeks scrambled 2 F16s, and those pilots saw one man inside still conscious but unable to move (waving his fingers at the window). Anyway, soon enough they were all dead and the thing flew on for another two hours until it hit a hillside near Athens. Intensely creepy indeed - a true ghost flight. If it's any consolation dying of annoxia is the most pleasant way to die and at least they will have been spared hours of terror.

"Hours of useful consciousness" after oxygen deprivation ranges from five minutes to 18 seconds at "moderate activity" depending on the altitude.

DaemonBarber

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

So it seems this aeroplane spent over 20 minutes above 43,000 feet whilst still pretty much next to Thailand. Which means that everyone on board was dead for the final few hours of flight (presumably on autopilot). Blimey. Pilot suicide?

I was talking about this with a mate at the weekend.

Imagine if you were the one person on the plane still alive. A passenger. Everyone else dead. Flying through the night on autopilot. Intensely creepy.

Would make a great thriller. Especially if it was on an Airbus 380. Then you could have strange noises coming from the upper deck....

Sounds a lot like the plot to The Langoliers...

Life_ina_market_town

The Crown will not be instituting proceedings against Peter Bone MP. (Per the CPS blog)

Carnyx

JackW said:

Mike.

Your thread link to Ladbrokes is broken and Carmichael is 1/100 to hold O&S.

Hmmmm - the question is whether a Yes vote would dent those odds enough, given his role as Imperial Satrap, or rather Secretary of State for Scotland, to make it [edit: now] worth putting some money on him losing. (But against that, you would need to factor in your own estimate of Yes odds.)

There is also the small matter that after Jurassic Park feeding time, or rather his last debate with Ms Sturgeon, he was expressing his intention to retire from politics at the GE.

[Deleted User]

JosiasJessop said:

Patrick said:

So it seems this aeroplane spent over 20 minutes above 43,000 feet whilst still pretty much next to Thailand. Which means that everyone on board was dead for the final few hours of flight (presumably on autopilot). Blimey. Pilot suicide?

Do you have a link for that please?

I'd favour technical failure. But if so, it's a blooming odd one; something that cripples the crew and enough electronics to lose comms, yet allow the plane to keep on flying. Yet it's still more likely in my mind than some sort of weird suicide bid.

On another note, CNN have a rather oversimplified but still interesting explanation of what the geniuses at Inmarsat and the AAIB have done:
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/24/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-satellite-tracking/

It's looking like pilot suicide. If he managed to get the co-pilot out into the cabin on some errand all he needed to do was lock the cockpit door, open the valve and climb to a delirious, painless, euphoric death.

(And to be exactly clear, climbing to that height would not kill anyone if the pilot had not opened the valve as the cabin would still have been pressurised).

JackW

BN 20:3 after 5 overs against WI

JosiasJessop

Patrick said:

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

So it seems this aeroplane spent over 20 minutes above 43,000 feet whilst still pretty much next to Thailand. Which means that everyone on board was dead for the final few hours of flight (presumably on autopilot). Blimey. Pilot suicide?

I was talking about this with a mate at the weekend.

Imagine if you were the one person on the plane still alive. A passenger. Everyone else dead. Flying through the night on autopilot. Intensely creepy.

Would make a great thriller. Especially if it was on an Airbus 380. Then you could have strange noises coming from the upper deck....

I saw the Aircrash Investigation episode about the Helios flight. A silly pilot error opened a pressure valve and the cabin slowly depresuurised. For some unfathomable reason the pilots didn't work out what was happening and went unconscious. The Greeks scrambled 2 F16s, and those pilots saw one man inside still conscious but unable to move (waving his fingers at the window). Anyway, soon enough they were all dead and the thing flew on for another two hours until it hit a hillside near Athens. Intensely creepy indeed - a true ghost flight. If it's any consolation dying of annoxia is the most pleasant way to die and at least they will have been spared hours of terror.

The Helios pilots did not open a valve. Ground crew at Heathrow performed a pressurisation test, and failed to set the system to auto once they'd completed. This meant the plane did not pressurise as it climbed. The crew made two main errors:

1) Not noticing the system was incorrectly set on several occasions, including before take-off;
2) Misunderstanding the warnings in the cockpit as they lost pressure.

The initial failure was by the ground crew, and they were a causal factor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522

[Deleted User]

JJ Thanks for correcting my (several years out of date) memory of the Helios case.

David_Evershed

The freedom to have access to private pension funds after age 55 is as much a Lib Dem policy as a Conservative policy. Steve Webb, the Lib Dem Pensions Mnister, has been saying for some time that annuities are unsatisfactory and more recently that people should be free to invest their pension funds where they wish eg a Lamborghini.

Lib Dems seem to be missing a trick by allowing the media to portray the pension move as entirely a Conservative initiative

JackW

Carnyx said:

JackW said:

Mike.

Your thread link to Ladbrokes is broken and Carmichael is 1/100 to hold O&S.

Hmmmm - the question is whether a Yes vote would dent those odds enough, given his role as Imperial Satrap, or rather Secretary of State for Scotland, to make it [edit: now] worth putting some money on him losing. (But against that, you would need to factor in your own estimate of Yes odds.)

There is also the small matter that after Jurassic Park feeding time, or rather his last debate with Ms Sturgeon, he was expressing his intention to retire from politics at the GE.

It's a wee bit odd if not perplexing.

The site is constantly regaled by SNPbers that luminaries of the NO camp are little short of single cell beings and yet .... and yet YES still can't manage a poll erection above the line to titivate the electorate.

Me thinks you need to show a more shapely ankle or much more to the punters, perchance in the shape of Eck in a pair of speedos. Bound to get a lift from the electoral penile dysfunction of the YES campaign.

JosiasJessop

Patrick said:

JosiasJessop said:

Patrick said:

So it seems this aeroplane spent over 20 minutes above 43,000 feet whilst still pretty much next to Thailand. Which means that everyone on board was dead for the final few hours of flight (presumably on autopilot). Blimey. Pilot suicide?

Do you have a link for that please?

I'd favour technical failure. But if so, it's a blooming odd one; something that cripples the crew and enough electronics to lose comms, yet allow the plane to keep on flying. Yet it's still more likely in my mind than some sort of weird suicide bid.

On another note, CNN have a rather oversimplified but still interesting explanation of what the geniuses at Inmarsat and the AAIB have done:
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/24/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-satellite-tracking/

It's looking like pilot suicide. If he managed to get the co-pilot out into the cabin on some errand all he needed to do was lock the cockpit door, open the valve and climb to a delirious, painless, euphoric death.

(And to be exactly clear, climbing to that height would not kill anyone if the pilot had not opened the valve as the cabin would still have been pressurised).

I doubt it's pilot suicide.

A question for you: can the pilot even open the valves in flight? If so, why? (I'm guessing to remove smoke might be a reason, but that seems rather dodgy). It might be much more likely to be a failure of an outflow valve or similar depressurisation event.

A page on the various pressurisation valves on a B737 are here. Note the plane that crashed was a 777, but it gives the general idea:
http://www.b737.org.uk/pressurisation.htm#Limitations

On a similar note, this incident was a particularly sad incident: a flight attendant died when blown out of the plane on the ground by air pressure:
http://www.ntsb.gov/aviationquery/brief.aspx?ev_id=20001212X22314

Richard_Tyndall

JosiasJessop said:

Patrick said:

SeanT said:

Patrick said:

So it seems this aeroplane spent over 20 minutes above 43,000 feet whilst still pretty much next to Thailand. Which means that everyone on board was dead for the final few hours of flight (presumably on autopilot). Blimey. Pilot suicide?

I was talking about this with a mate at the weekend.

Imagine if you were the one person on the plane still alive. A passenger. Everyone else dead. Flying through the night on autopilot. Intensely creepy.

Would make a great thriller. Especially if it was on an Airbus 380. Then you could have strange noises coming from the upper deck....

I saw the Aircrash Investigation episode about the Helios flight. A silly pilot error opened a pressure valve and the cabin slowly depresuurised. For some unfathomable reason the pilots didn't work out what was happening and went unconscious. The Greeks scrambled 2 F16s, and those pilots saw one man inside still conscious but unable to move (waving his fingers at the window). Anyway, soon enough they were all dead and the thing flew on for another two hours until it hit a hillside near Athens. Intensely creepy indeed - a true ghost flight. If it's any consolation dying of annoxia is the most pleasant way to die and at least they will have been spared hours of terror.

The Helios pilots did not open a valve. Ground crew at Heathrow performed a pressurisation test, and failed to set the system to auto once they'd completed. This meant the plane did not pressurise as it climbed. The crew made two main errors:

1) Not noticing the system was incorrectly set on several occasions, including before take-off;
2) Misunderstanding the warnings in the cockpit as they lost pressure.

The initial failure was by the ground crew, and they were a causal factor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522

The ground crew at Heathrow did not perform the fatal pressurisation check. The flight crew had reported a problem with a frozen door seal when the plane arrived at Larnaca from Heathrow and it was the ground crew at Larnaca who switched the pressurisation system to manual and then failed to switch it back to Auto. If the error had been made at HEathrow the plane would have crashed before it reached Larnaca rather than on the Larnaca - Athens leg.

It is interesting in that case that although the flight crew were disabled, at least one of the cabin crew was still able to function and held a commercial licence. According to the fighter pilots who were sent up to intercept the plane in its holding pattern he had tried to regain control of the plane but it ran out of fuel and crashed before he could do anything about it.

Carnyx

JackW said:

Carnyx said:

JackW said:

Mike.

Your thread link to Ladbrokes is broken and Carmichael is 1/100 to hold O&S.

Hmmmm - the question is whether a Yes vote would dent those odds enough, given his role as Imperial Satrap, or rather Secretary of State for Scotland, to make it [edit: now] worth putting some money on him losing. (But against that, you would need to factor in your own estimate of Yes odds.)

There is also the small matter that after Jurassic Park feeding time, or rather his last debate with Ms Sturgeon, he was expressing his intention to retire from politics at the GE.

It's a wee bit odd if not perplexing.

The site is constantly regaled by SNPbers that luminaries of the NO camp are little short of single cell beings and yet .... and yet YES still can't manage a poll erection above the line to titivate the electorate.

Me thinks you need to show a more shapely ankle or much more to the punters, perchance in the shape of Eck in a pair of speedos. Bound to get a lift from the electoral penile dysfunction of the YES campaign.

I can't speak for the SNPers, but more generally you are perhaps underrating the ability of your cosmic intelligence to conceive, er rather imagine, a situation like the following. To take (presumably) your view that the odds of a Yes vote are [edit: say] 1 in 5, then the question is whether the dent in Mr C's odds of not being reelected in the event of a Yes compensate for this. As an extreme, one could suggest this as 1 in 2 as a result of a Yes - in total a 1 in 10 chance, which makes 1/100 perhaps a good value bet. Some of us might put rather different values into the calculation, but come up with a similar result ...

JackW

BN 57:4 after 10 overs against WI

OldKingCole

JackW said:

BN 57:4 after 10 overs against WI

59-7 now

JackW

Carnyx said:

JackW said:

Carnyx said:

JackW said:

Mike.

Your thread link to Ladbrokes is broken and Carmichael is 1/100 to hold O&S.

Hmmmm - the question is whether a Yes vote would dent those odds enough, given his role as Imperial Satrap, or rather Secretary of State for Scotland, to make it [edit: now] worth putting some money on him losing. (But against that, you would need to factor in your own estimate of Yes odds.)

There is also the small matter that after Jurassic Park feeding time, or rather his last debate with Ms Sturgeon, he was expressing his intention to retire from politics at the GE.

It's a wee bit odd if not perplexing.

The site is constantly regaled by SNPbers that luminaries of the NO camp are little short of single cell beings and yet .... and yet YES still can't manage a poll erection above the line to titivate the electorate.

Me thinks you need to show a more shapely ankle or much more to the punters, perchance in the shape of Eck in a pair of speedos. Bound to get a lift from the electoral penile dysfunction of the YES campaign.

I can't speak for the SNPers, but more generally you are perhaps underrating the ability of your cosmic intelligence to conceive, er rather imagine, a situation like the following. To take (presumably) your view that the odds of a Yes vote are [edit: say] 1 in 5, then the question is whether the dent in Mr C's odds of not being reelected in the event of a Yes compensate for this. As an extreme, one could suggest this as 1 in 2 as a result of a Yes - in total a 1 in 10 chance, which makes 1/100 perhaps a good value bet. Some of us might put rather different values into the calculation, but come up with a similar result ...

Carmichael is ultra safe regardless of the referendum result and should he retire O&S is safe for the yellow peril regardless of the blandishments of the SNP. There's a mighty good reason for the 1/100 price especially as @shadsy isn't widely acknowledged as being driven by charitable giving to PBers.

My "cosmic intelligence" has heard it all before from varied challengers to the LibDem hegemony on the islands and safe to stay it's all been wishful thinking on a cosmic scale.

JackW

BN 63:7 after 12 overs against WI

JosiasJessop

Richard_Tyndall said:

JosiasJessop said:

The Helios pilots did not open a valve. Ground crew at Heathrow performed a pressurisation test, and failed to set the system to auto once they'd completed. This meant the plane did not pressurise as it climbed. The crew made two main errors:

1) Not noticing the system was incorrectly set on several occasions, including before take-off;
2) Misunderstanding the warnings in the cockpit as they lost pressure.

The initial failure was by the ground crew, and they were a causal factor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helios_Airways_Flight_522

The ground crew at Heathrow did not perform the fatal pressurisation check. The flight crew had reported a problem with a frozen door seal when the plane arrived at Larnaca from Heathrow and it was the ground crew at Larnaca who switched the pressurisation system to manual and then failed to switch it back to Auto. If the error had been made at HEathrow the plane would have crashed before it reached Larnaca rather than on the Larnaca - Athens leg.

It is interesting in that case that although the flight crew were disabled, at least one of the cabin crew was still able to function and held a commercial licence. According to the fighter pilots who were sent up to intercept the plane in its holding pattern he had tried to regain control of the plane but it ran out of fuel and crashed before he could do anything about it.

Ah, sorry. You are right. The investigation report is better than Wiki in this case:
http://www.ntsb.gov/aviationquery/brief.aspx?ev_id=20001212X22314

So in correcting someone about blaming the air crew, I blame the wrong ground staff!

Note that there was only four minutes between take-off and the last communication with the Helios flight, a much shorter period than the flight time of MH370. That possibly counts against a similar scenario (no pressurisation from take-off).

Carnyx

JackW said:

Carnyx said:

JackW said:

Carnyx said:

JackW said:

Mike.

Your thread link to Ladbrokes is broken and Carmichael is 1/100 to hold O&S.

Hmmmm - the question is whether a Yes vote would dent those odds enough, given his role as Imperial Satrap, or rather Secretary of State for Scotland, to make it [edit: now] worth putting some money on him losing. (But against that, you would need to factor in your own estimate of Yes odds.)

There is also the small matter that after Jurassic Park feeding time, or rather his last debate with Ms Sturgeon, he was expressing his intention to retire from politics at the GE.

It's a wee bit odd if not perplexing.

The site is constantly regaled by SNPbers that luminaries of the NO camp are little short of single cell beings and yet .... and yet YES still can't manage a poll erection above the line to titivate the electorate.

Me thinks you need to show a more shapely ankle or much more to the punters, perchance in the shape of Eck in a pair of speedos. Bound to get a lift from the electoral penile dysfunction of the YES campaign.

I can't speak for the SNPers, but more generally you are perhaps underrating the ability of your cosmic intelligence to conceive, er rather imagine, a situation like the following. To take (presumably) your view that the odds of a Yes vote are [edit: say] 1 in 5, then the question is whether the dent in Mr C's odds of not being reelected in the event of a Yes compensate for this. As an extreme, one could suggest this as 1 in 2 as a result of a Yes - in total a 1 in 10 chance, which makes 1/100 perhaps a good value bet. Some of us might put rather different values into the calculation, but come up with a similar result ...

Carmichael is ultra safe regardless of the referendum result and should he retire O&S is safe for the yellow peril regardless of the blandishments of the SNP. There's a mighty good reason for the 1/100 price especially as @shadsy isn't widely acknowledged as being driven by charitable giving to PBers.

My "cosmic intelligence" has heard it all before from varied challengers to the LibDem hegemony on the islands and safe to stay it's all been wishful thinking on a cosmic scale.

They are indeed astronomical numbers ...

JackW

Carnyx said:

JackW said:

Carnyx said:

JackW said:

Carnyx said:

JackW said:

Mike.

Your thread link to Ladbrokes is broken and Carmichael is 1/100 to hold O&S.

Hmmmm - the question is whether a Yes vote would dent those odds enough, given his role as Imperial Satrap, or rather Secretary of State for Scotland, to make it [edit: now] worth putting some money on him losing. (But against that, you would need to factor in your own estimate of Yes odds.)

There is also the small matter that after Jurassic Park feeding time, or rather his last debate with Ms Sturgeon, he was expressing his intention to retire from politics at the GE.

It's a wee bit odd if not perplexing.

The site is constantly regaled by SNPbers that luminaries of the NO camp are little short of single cell beings and yet .... and yet YES still can't manage a poll erection above the line to titivate the electorate.

Me thinks you need to show a more shapely ankle or much more to the punters, perchance in the shape of Eck in a pair of speedos. Bound to get a lift from the electoral penile dysfunction of the YES campaign.

I can't speak for the SNPers, but more generally you are perhaps underrating the ability of your cosmic intelligence to conceive, er rather imagine, a situation like the following. To take (presumably) your view that the odds of a Yes vote are [edit: say] 1 in 5, then the question is whether the dent in Mr C's odds of not being reelected in the event of a Yes compensate for this. As an extreme, one could suggest this as 1 in 2 as a result of a Yes - in total a 1 in 10 chance, which makes 1/100 perhaps a good value bet. Some of us might put rather different values into the calculation, but come up with a similar result ...

Carmichael is ultra safe regardless of the referendum result and should he retire O&S is safe for the yellow peril regardless of the blandishments of the SNP. There's a mighty good reason for the 1/100 price especially as @shadsy isn't widely acknowledged as being driven by charitable giving to PBers.

My "cosmic intelligence" has heard it all before from varied challengers to the LibDem hegemony on the islands and safe to stay it's all been wishful thinking on a cosmic scale.

They are indeed astronomical numbers ...

And now you want to discuss the out of this world number of Mrs JackW's shoes !!

JackW

BN 74:8 after 15 overs against WI

MonikerDiCanio

JackW said:

Carnyx said:

JackW said:

Carnyx said:

JackW said:

Mike.

Your thread link to Ladbrokes is broken and Carmichael is 1/100 to hold O&S.

Hmmmm - the question is whether a Yes vote would dent those odds enough, given his role as Imperial Satrap, or rather Secretary of State for Scotland, to make it [edit: now] worth putting some money on him losing. (But against that, you would need to factor in your own estimate of Yes odds.)

There is also the small matter that after Jurassic Park feeding time, or rather his last debate with Ms Sturgeon, he was expressing his intention to retire from politics at the GE.

It's a wee bit odd if not perplexing.

The site is constantly regaled by SNPbers that luminaries of the NO camp are little short of single cell beings and yet .... and yet YES still can't manage a poll erection above the line to titivate the electorate.

Me thinks you need to show a more shapely ankle or much more to the punters, perchance in the shape of Eck in a pair of speedos. Bound to get a lift from the electoral penile dysfunction of the YES campaign.

I can't speak for the SNPers, but more generally you are perhaps underrating the ability of your cosmic intelligence to conceive, er rather imagine, a situation like the following. To take (presumably) your view that the odds of a Yes vote are [edit: say] 1 in 5, then the question is whether the dent in Mr C's odds of not being reelected in the event of a Yes compensate for this. As an extreme, one could suggest this as 1 in 2 as a result of a Yes - in total a 1 in 10 chance, which makes 1/100 perhaps a good value bet. Some of us might put rather different values into the calculation, but come up with a similar result ...

Carmichael is ultra safe regardless of the referendum result and should he retire O&S is safe for the yellow peril regardless of the blandishments of the SNP. There's a mighty good reason for the 1/100 price especially as @shadsy isn't widely acknowledged as being driven by charitable giving to PBers.

My "cosmic intelligence" has heard it all before from varied challengers to the LibDem hegemony on the islands and safe to stay it's all been wishful thinking on a cosmic scale.

It must be tempting for Orkney and Shetland to cast off Edinburgh control and become vastly wealthy British Crown Dependencies.

JackW

BN 83:8 after 17 overs against WI

MikeSmithson

CORRECTION
I've just amended the header to reflect the Carmichael 100/1 price.

JackW

MonikerDiCanio said:

JackW said:

Carnyx said:

JackW said:

Carnyx said:

JackW said:

Mike.

Your thread link to Ladbrokes is broken and Carmichael is 1/100 to hold O&S.

Hmmmm - the question is whether a Yes vote would dent those odds enough, given his role as Imperial Satrap, or rather Secretary of State for Scotland, to make it [edit: now] worth putting some money on him losing. (But against that, you would need to factor in your own estimate of Yes odds.)

There is also the small matter that after Jurassic Park feeding time, or rather his last debate with Ms Sturgeon, he was expressing his intention to retire from politics at the GE.

It's a wee bit odd if not perplexing.

The site is constantly regaled by SNPbers that luminaries of the NO camp are little short of single cell beings and yet .... and yet YES still can't manage a poll erection above the line to titivate the electorate.

Me thinks you need to show a more shapely ankle or much more to the punters, perchance in the shape of Eck in a pair of speedos. Bound to get a lift from the electoral penile dysfunction of the YES campaign.

I can't speak for the SNPers, but more generally you are perhaps underrating the ability of your cosmic intelligence to conceive, er rather imagine, a situation like the following. To take (presumably) your view that the odds of a Yes vote are [edit: say] 1 in 5, then the question is whether the dent in Mr C's odds of not being reelected in the event of a Yes compensate for this. As an extreme, one could suggest this as 1 in 2 as a result of a Yes - in total a 1 in 10 chance, which makes 1/100 perhaps a good value bet. Some of us might put rather different values into the calculation, but come up with a similar result ...

Carmichael is ultra safe regardless of the referendum result and should he retire O&S is safe for the yellow peril regardless of the blandishments of the SNP. There's a mighty good reason for the 1/100 price especially as @shadsy isn't widely acknowledged as being driven by charitable giving to PBers.

My "cosmic intelligence" has heard it all before from varied challengers to the LibDem hegemony on the islands and safe to stay it's all been wishful thinking on a cosmic scale.

It must be tempting for Orkney and Shetland to cast off Edinburgh control and become vastly wealthy British Crown Dependencies.

Take that large wooden spoon from behind your back !!

Titters ....

malcolmg

Patrick said:

MalcolmG won't be pleased:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10721556/Scotlands-goose-that-lays-golden-eggs-has-gone-on-strike-Mr-Salmond.html

Another load of bollocks, do we believe this cretin or judge by the £15B investment. I doubt very much that the oil companies are throwing money at it to get no return. A blind man would know that there is plenty left and it will be going up in price and Scotland will be in control of it.

malcolmg

Carnyx said:

JackW said:

Mike.

Your thread link to Ladbrokes is broken and Carmichael is 1/100 to hold O&S.

Hmmmm - the question is whether a Yes vote would dent those odds enough, given his role as Imperial Satrap, or rather Secretary of State for Scotland, to make it [edit: now] worth putting some money on him losing. (But against that, you would need to factor in your own estimate of Yes odds.)

There is also the small matter that after Jurassic Park feeding time, or rather his last debate with Ms Sturgeon, he was expressing his intention to retire from politics at the GE.

he did well at weekend debating on his home turf. Vote after the debate was 80% YES.

malcolmg

JackW said:

Carnyx said:

JackW said:

Carnyx said:

JackW said:

Mike.

Your thread link to Ladbrokes is broken and Carmichael is 1/100 to hold O&S.

Hmmmm - the question is whether a Yes vote would dent those odds enough, given his role as Imperial Satrap, or rather Secretary of State for Scotland, to make it [edit: now] worth putting some money on him losing. (But against that, you would need to factor in your own estimate of Yes odds.)

There is also the small matter that after Jurassic Park feeding time, or rather his last debate with Ms Sturgeon, he was expressing his intention to retire from politics at the GE.

It's a wee bit odd if not perplexing.

The site is constantly regaled by SNPbers that luminaries of the NO camp are little short of single cell beings and yet .... and yet YES still can't manage a poll erection above the line to titivate the electorate.

Me thinks you need to show a more shapely ankle or much more to the punters, perchance in the shape of Eck in a pair of speedos. Bound to get a lift from the electoral penile dysfunction of the YES campaign.

I can't speak for the SNPers, but more generally you are perhaps underrating the ability of your cosmic intelligence to conceive, er rather imagine, a situation like the following. To take (presumably) your view that the odds of a Yes vote are [edit: say] 1 in 5, then the question is whether the dent in Mr C's odds of not being reelected in the event of a Yes compensate for this. As an extreme, one could suggest this as 1 in 2 as a result of a Yes - in total a 1 in 10 chance, which makes 1/100 perhaps a good value bet. Some of us might put rather different values into the calculation, but come up with a similar result ...

Carmichael is ultra safe regardless of the referendum result and should he retire O&S is safe for the yellow peril regardless of the blandishments of the SNP. There's a mighty good reason for the 1/100 price especially as @shadsy isn't widely acknowledged as being driven by charitable giving to PBers.

My "cosmic intelligence" has heard it all before from varied challengers to the LibDem hegemony on the islands and safe to stay it's all been wishful thinking on a cosmic scale.

Not very safe once there are no MP's in Scotland. Troughless for certain

JackW

BN 97:9 after 18.5 overs against WI

BN require 75 from 7 balls .... almost as likely as a YES referendum win !!

Chortle ....

OblitusSumMe

malcolmg said:

Patrick said:

MalcolmG won't be pleased:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10721556/Scotlands-goose-that-lays-golden-eggs-has-gone-on-strike-Mr-Salmond.html

Another load of bollocks, do we believe this cretin or judge by the £15B investment. I doubt very much that the oil companies are throwing money at it to get no return. A blind man would know that there is plenty left and it will be going up in price and Scotland will be in control of it.

I'm guessing you'd want Scotland to be independent even if there never had been any oil under the North Sea in the first place?

JackW

BN 98 all out. WI win by 73 runs

taffys

For once, an interesting article in the Daily Express

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/466810/Germany-plans-to-curb-EU-migrants-benefits-to-stop-welfare-tourism

Hmmn....some of this stuff looks pretty tough

Anorak

Uh-oh. Another reason for Malcolm to campaign for independence. Hopefully this is not retrospective.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/03/25/british_trolls_to_face_tougher_penalties_over_online_abuse/

taffys

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/lifestyle/fun-stuff/george-osborne-came-wales-played-6875343

One for the dear departed tim. Ozzie plays bingo in wales.

rcs1000

taffys said:

For once, an interesting article in the Daily Express

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/466810/Germany-plans-to-curb-EU-migrants-benefits-to-stop-welfare-tourism

Hmmn....some of this stuff looks pretty tough

It's incredibly easy to curb welfare and health tourism - as many of our EU partners have demonstrated - by implementing residence requirements. An "NHS access card" might cost £5,000/year if bought, or would require five years residence, or three years of NI payments.

DavidBrackenbury

malcolmg said:

Patrick said:

MalcolmG won't be pleased:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10721556/Scotlands-goose-that-lays-golden-eggs-has-gone-on-strike-Mr-Salmond.html

Another load of bollocks, do we believe this cretin or judge by the £15B investment. I doubt very much that the oil companies are throwing money at it to get no return. A blind man would know that there is plenty left and it will be going up in price and Scotland will be in control of it.

Oh dear. Was the article cretinous, do you think? Do you think that everyone is wrong on this issue? Of course there is plenty of oil left, but prices have fallen and the OBR have pointed this out. Perhaps pessimistic, but who knows? All you want to do is get over the line in the referendum and abuse, denigrate and scream at anyone who does not agree with you. It breaks my heart to see your attitude. This is far too important to be shrieking Trougher, Liar, Bollox etc. etc.

Very very depressing.

Neil

taffys said:

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/lifestyle/fun-stuff/george-osborne-came-wales-played-6875343

One for the dear departed tim. Ozzie plays bingo in wales.

It all went a bit wrong after he won and called out "mansion".

Richard_Nabavi

@Neil - LOL!

(A rather better effort than the feeble ones in the article)

taffys

rcs1000

The reason I posted this is that it seems Germany and the UK are very much on the same page on this topic. And that might be good for Dave's negotiations.

You have to wonder where France are too, given the recent election results...

Richard_Nabavi

taffys said:

You have to wonder where France are too, given the recent election results...

In the merde.

rcs1000

taffys said:

rcs1000

The reason I posted this is that it seems Germany and the UK are very much on the same page on this topic. And that might be good for Dave's negotiations.

You have to wonder where France are too, given the recent election results...

France's insurance based health system already acts as a break on health tourism. I don't know what their policy on benefits is - except to know that they are incredibly keen on people having babies...

murali_s

O/T Hotels in Nice, France.

About to spend a long weekend in Nice - any recommendations for a good hotel?

Scrapheap_as_was

UKFI selling 7.5% in Lloyds .... I may be wrong but I think settlement date would be 31/3/14

Handy for the 2013/14 budget deficit perhaps... or am I wrong and too cynical

JonnyJimmy

I've invented a word that's bound not to catch on in time - smarzipan.

Wonder if anyone cares enough to guess what it means..

JackW

Neil said:

taffys said:

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/lifestyle/fun-stuff/george-osborne-came-wales-played-6875343

One for the dear departed tim. Ozzie plays bingo in wales.

It all went a bit wrong after he won and called out "mansion".

"LIKE"

JackW

JonnyJimmy said:

I've invented a word that's bound not to catch on in time - smarzipan.

Wonder if anyone cares enough to guess what it means..

I'm sorry, what was the word again ?

not_on_fire

For that to work you'd need a National ID card system, which the Tories needlessly abolished.

JonnyJimmy

JackW said:

JonnyJimmy said:

I've invented a word that's bound not to catch on in time - smarzipan.

Wonder if anyone cares enough to guess what it means..

I'm sorry, what was the word again ?

smarzipan

Ishmael_X

JonnyJimmy said:

I've invented a word that's bound not to catch on in time - smarzipan.

Wonder if anyone cares enough to guess what it means..

eck.

MrJones

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/25/uk-east-coast-ukip-incursion?CMP=twt_gu

"Nigel Farage and his followers are drawing their strength from the "left behind""

It's important for Ukip to understand that a lot of these people had a good life themselves but are looking *forward* at their kid's and grandkid's futures disappearing down the hole the political class are digging. If they take the reverse identity politics meme that's being spun here they'll end up knocking pennies off Bingo. It's about the future not the past or even the present.

"low qualified"

Needing qualifications is quite recent. Most of my older rellies dropped out of school at the first opportunity and got qualified in the armed forces. The meme being pushed is "thick" but it ain't necessarily so.

"and angry voters"

The third thing is crime. There's no point getting into arguments about statistics because the police gave up on crime that contradicts PC ideology a long time ago but if Ukip accepts mentally that you can't dramatically increase the number of young men and the ratio of young male to young female without consequences then they'll have their head in the right place.


(An east-west / southeast-northwest cline in Ukip support is interesting and probably does mean something but my guess is it's a historical underlay.)

Neil

Pretty unbelievable news from Ireland today. When the Garda Commissioner resigned earlier today everyone presumed it was because of an ongoing controversy over whistleblowers and a series of allegations affecting the police force. And then we find out that the Gardai for years *routinely* recorded all phone calls to and from a large number of police stations. Depending on who knew what and when anything could happen now.

That noise you can hear is the sound of thousands of Irish lawyers licking their lips.

Socrates

I see we're now going to start importing gas from Russia:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/03/25/uk-gas-russia-ukraine_n_5026247.html?1395746230&utm_hp_ref=uk

What an unbelievably stupid policy. We're already too economically exposed to the kleptocracy in Moscow. Why on Earth should we allow them to have even more leverage over us? Cameron is all talk and no action.

JosiasJessop

I've just been listening to Radio 4 as I've been cooking (*), and it sounds as though Reverend Flowers has resurfaced. It looks like he's trying to blame this government for his hideous incompetence and the failure of the Co-op bank.

Hahahahahahahahaha

Ha.

Ex-Labour piece of sh@t trying to blame the Conservatives for his own failures. Well, that's unusual, isn't it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26734513

(*) A spinach and penne pasta bake. Lovely jubbilly.

JosiasJessop

Neil said:

Pretty unbelievable news from Ireland today. When the Garda Commissioner resigned earlier today everyone presumed it was because of an ongoing controversy over whistleblowers and a series of allegations affecting the police force. And then we find out that the Gardai for years *routinely* recorded all phone calls to and from a large number of police stations. Depending on who knew what and when anything could happen now.

That noise you can hear is the sound of thousands of Irish lawyers licking their lips.

That's fairly incredible

Linky:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-26737264

Verulamius

The 13 candidates for the House of Lords by-election for crossbench elected hereditary peer have been announced.

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2014/Lords-Notice-Lord-Moran-candidates-list.pdf

There are statements for each candidate. Which is your favourite?

As this is an election for a crossbench peer only the current 29 elected hereditary crossbench peers can vote.

Election by AV, results announced fortnight tomorrow.

Scrapheap_as_was

Scrap trading report - I am no longer sitting on a paper loss of near £5,000.

The 2 enhanced annuity providers shares have edged higher so I'm only down just under £4,000 as of tonight.

Let the party start!

Neil

Verulamius said:

The 13 candidates for the House of Lords by-election for crossbench elected hereditary peer have been announced.

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2014/Lords-Notice-Lord-Moran-candidates-list.pdf

There are statements for each candidate. Which is your favourite?

As this is an election for a crossbench peer only the current 29 elected hereditary crossbench peers can vote.

Election by AV, results announced fortnight tomorrow.

Lord Oriel seems to be using the election as an opportunity to quash rumours:

"I am not a member of UKIP."

Monksfield

Hard to assess LD performance, as so much depends on the willingness and/or motivation of different sections of the electorate to vote tactically, then there are all sorts of gepgraphical or even local factors. The unknown is how far recent patterns will hold on the back of the party having been in power. Will labour voters urge to stop the Tories trump the urge to punish the yellow peril. You cannot think in terms of broad swing. Will Tory voters get the tactical habit in places where Lab is the opposition?

You can write off a few seats. Can't see them holding Bradford East, or Burnley. They'll lose a few to the Tories, but it'd be brave to call results in LD/Con contests where the Tories need to gain share. That's unlikely to happen as it looks like 2010 was high water for them. Redcar could be an odd one; steelworks closure that led to Baird being punished has been reversed under the Coalition - Swales just could hold on. I think 40-45 seats sounds about right, and I think they will gain Montgomeryshire, Oxford West and Truro.

Easterross

Neil said:

Verulamius said:

The 13 candidates for the House of Lords by-election for crossbench elected hereditary peer have been announced.

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2014/Lords-Notice-Lord-Moran-candidates-list.pdf

There are statements for each candidate. Which is your favourite?

As this is an election for a crossbench peer only the current 29 elected hereditary crossbench peers can vote.

Election by AV, results announced fortnight tomorrow.

Lord Oriel seems to be using the election as an opportunity to quash rumours:

"I am not a member of UKIP."

Very interesting to note how many of the Crossbench hereditaries hold titles granted to grandfathers etc who were military commanders. Also note a fair number of Scots among the Crossbenchers.

Monksfield

Verulamius said:

The 13 candidates for the House of Lords by-election for crossbench elected hereditary peer have been announced.

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2014/Lords-Notice-Lord-Moran-candidates-list.pdf

There are statements for each candidate. Which is your favourite?

As this is an election for a crossbench peer only the current 29 elected hereditary crossbench peers can vote.

Election by AV, results announced fortnight tomorrow.

I found reading those statements rather depressing. Earl Temple would probably get my vote.

TOPPING

Verulamius said:

The 13 candidates for the House of Lords by-election for crossbench elected hereditary peer have been announced.

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2014/Lords-Notice-Lord-Moran-candidates-list.pdf

There are statements for each candidate. Which is your favourite?

As this is an election for a crossbench peer only the current 29 elected hereditary crossbench peers can vote.

Election by AV, results announced fortnight tomorrow.

I mean I was happy enough about the previous system with admittedly many faults which might have been tidied up but this doesn't look or sound like a democratic process to elect one of our leglislators.

Neil

TOPPING said:

Verulamius said:

The 13 candidates for the House of Lords by-election for crossbench elected hereditary peer have been announced.

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2014/Lords-Notice-Lord-Moran-candidates-list.pdf

There are statements for each candidate. Which is your favourite?

As this is an election for a crossbench peer only the current 29 elected hereditary crossbench peers can vote.

Election by AV, results announced fortnight tomorrow.

I mean I was happy enough about the previous system with admittedly many faults which might have been tidied up but this doesn't look or sound like a democratic process to elect one of our leglislators.

It's better than the old system which allowed for them all to be legislators automatically.

MikeSmithson

I've just completed a voting questionaire from Opinium - I assume for this week's Observer poll. Interestingly I was asked whether my vote was FOR my party of choice or AGAINST another party. Looks like tactical voting is being looked at.

TOPPING

Neil said:

TOPPING said:

Verulamius said:

The 13 candidates for the House of Lords by-election for crossbench elected hereditary peer have been announced.

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2014/Lords-Notice-Lord-Moran-candidates-list.pdf

There are statements for each candidate. Which is your favourite?

As this is an election for a crossbench peer only the current 29 elected hereditary crossbench peers can vote.

Election by AV, results announced fortnight tomorrow.

I mean I was happy enough about the previous system with admittedly many faults which might have been tidied up but this doesn't look or sound like a democratic process to elect one of our leglislators.

It's better than the old system which allowed for them all to be legislators automatically.

Well I suppose that's true but it just seems to have made it more absurd.

anotherDave

MrJones said:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/25/uk-east-coast-ukip-incursion?CMP=twt_gu

"Nigel Farage and his followers are drawing their strength from the "left behind""

It's important for Ukip to understand that a lot of these people had a good life themselves but are looking *forward* at their kid's and grandkid's futures disappearing down the hole the political class are digging. If they take the reverse identity politics meme that's being spun here they'll end up knocking pennies off Bingo. It's about the future not the past or even the present.

"low qualified"

Needing qualifications is quite recent. Most of my older rellies dropped out of school at the first opportunity and got qualified in the armed forces. The meme being pushed is "thick" but it ain't necessarily so.

"and angry voters"

The third thing is crime. There's no point getting into arguments about statistics because the police gave up on crime that contradicts PC ideology a long time ago but if Ukip accepts mentally that you can't dramatically increase the number of young men and the ratio of young male to young female without consequences then they'll have their head in the right place.


(An east-west / southeast-northwest cline in Ukip support is interesting and probably does mean something but my guess is it's a historical underlay.)

" both Miliband's and Yvette Cooper's seats are in the country's top 20 most Ukip-friendly"

Now those would be entertaining election night results. Fingers crossed.

Neil

TOPPING said:

Neil said:

TOPPING said:

Verulamius said:

The 13 candidates for the House of Lords by-election for crossbench elected hereditary peer have been announced.

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2014/Lords-Notice-Lord-Moran-candidates-list.pdf

There are statements for each candidate. Which is your favourite?

As this is an election for a crossbench peer only the current 29 elected hereditary crossbench peers can vote.

Election by AV, results announced fortnight tomorrow.

I mean I was happy enough about the previous system with admittedly many faults which might have been tidied up but this doesn't look or sound like a democratic process to elect one of our leglislators.

It's better than the old system which allowed for them all to be legislators automatically.

Well I suppose that's true but it just seems to have made it more absurd.

It's less absurd. Instead of all 13 of the candidates turning up and legislating for us, only 1 of them gets to do so. I see that as a net gain of 12.

Richard_Nabavi

Neil said:

It's less absurd. Instead of all 13 of the candidates turning up and legislating for us, only 1 of them gets to do so. I see that as a net gain of 12.

.. and the candidate is elected by AV, which, as we've been told many times, is more democratic than FPTP.

[ducks for cover]

TOPPING

Neil said:

TOPPING said:

Neil said:

TOPPING said:

Verulamius said:

The 13 candidates for the House of Lords by-election for crossbench elected hereditary peer have been announced.

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2014/Lords-Notice-Lord-Moran-candidates-list.pdf

There are statements for each candidate. Which is your favourite?

As this is an election for a crossbench peer only the current 29 elected hereditary crossbench peers can vote.

Election by AV, results announced fortnight tomorrow.

I mean I was happy enough about the previous system with admittedly many faults which might have been tidied up but this doesn't look or sound like a democratic process to elect one of our leglislators.

It's better than the old system which allowed for them all to be legislators automatically.

Well I suppose that's true but it just seems to have made it more absurd.

It's less absurd. Instead of all 13 of the candidates turning up and legislating for us, only 1 of them gets to do so. I see that as a net gain of 12.

Either a) have hereditary peers; or b) don't have them.

This system is ridiculous.

I think the best of the hereditaries did a great job as they had nothing to lose and had no patronage although of course there were some bad 'uns.

Pulpstar

I've just tidied my desk. 500 million A4 print outs for shredding !

jayfdee

murali_s said:

O/T Hotels in Nice, France.

About to spend a long weekend in Nice - any recommendations for a good hotel?

Negresco but a bit pricey. Nice is very nice

Neil

TOPPING said:

Neil said:

TOPPING said:

Neil said:

TOPPING said:

Verulamius said:

The 13 candidates for the House of Lords by-election for crossbench elected hereditary peer have been announced.

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2014/Lords-Notice-Lord-Moran-candidates-list.pdf

There are statements for each candidate. Which is your favourite?

As this is an election for a crossbench peer only the current 29 elected hereditary crossbench peers can vote.

Election by AV, results announced fortnight tomorrow.

I mean I was happy enough about the previous system with admittedly many faults which might have been tidied up but this doesn't look or sound like a democratic process to elect one of our leglislators.

It's better than the old system which allowed for them all to be legislators automatically.

Well I suppose that's true but it just seems to have made it more absurd.

It's less absurd. Instead of all 13 of the candidates turning up and legislating for us, only 1 of them gets to do so. I see that as a net gain of 12.

Either a) have hereditary peers; or b) don't have them.

This system is ridiculous.

My only point is that having 1 is less ridiculous than having 13.

Verulamius

Richard_Nabavi said:

Neil said:

It's less absurd. Instead of all 13 of the candidates turning up and legislating for us, only 1 of them gets to do so. I see that as a net gain of 12.

.. and the candidate is elected by AV, which, as we've been told many times, is more democratic than FPTP.

[ducks for cover]

How many rounds of transfers should we be expecting, 5?

MonikerDiCanio

anotherDave said:

MrJones said:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/25/uk-east-coast-ukip-incursion?CMP=twt_gu

"Nigel Farage and his followers are drawing their strength from the "left behind""

It's important for Ukip to understand that a lot of these people had a good life themselves but are looking *forward* at their kid's and grandkid's futures disappearing down the hole the political class are digging. If they take the reverse identity politics meme that's being spun here they'll end up knocking pennies off Bingo. It's about the future not the past or even the present.

"low qualified"

Needing qualifications is quite recent. Most of my older rellies dropped out of school at the first opportunity and got qualified in the armed forces. The meme being pushed is "thick" but it ain't necessarily so.

"and angry voters"

The third thing is crime. There's no point getting into arguments about statistics because the police gave up on crime that contradicts PC ideology a long time ago but if Ukip accepts mentally that you can't dramatically increase the number of young men and the ratio of young male to young female without consequences then they'll have their head in the right place.


(An east-west / southeast-northwest cline in Ukip support is interesting and probably does mean something but my guess is it's a historical underlay.)

" both Miliband's and Yvette Cooper's seats are in the country's top 20 most Ukip-friendly"

Now those would be entertaining election night results. Fingers crossed.

Labour in Doncaster North under Kevin Hughes used to get almost 70% of the GE voter, since EdM's parachuting in they've dropped to the mid-40s. Who knows what the future holds?

Verulamius

Monksfield said:

Verulamius said:

The 13 candidates for the House of Lords by-election for crossbench elected hereditary peer have been announced.

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-information-office/2014/Lords-Notice-Lord-Moran-candidates-list.pdf

There are statements for each candidate. Which is your favourite?

As this is an election for a crossbench peer only the current 29 elected hereditary crossbench peers can vote.

Election by AV, results announced fortnight tomorrow.

I found reading those statements rather depressing. Earl Temple would probably get my vote.

Would a twitter campaign help him get elected? Or would the electorate not notice?

jayfdee

murali_s said:

O/T Hotels in Nice, France.

About to spend a long weekend in Nice - any recommendations for a good hotel?

After spending a fortune at the Negresco,take the train to Monte Carlo,only a short journey,and some serious betting/gambling,and you might get lucky and win enough to pay the hotel,then again... maybe not.

malcolmg

Anorak said:

Uh-oh. Another reason for Malcolm to campaign for independence. Hopefully this is not retrospective.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/03/25/british_trolls_to_face_tougher_penalties_over_online_abuse/

I attended the Scottish Cabinet meeting today in Irvine, heard a real politician at the top of his game.
http://www.scotreferendum.com/2014/03/public-discussion-in-irvine/

malcolmg

OblitusSumMe said:

malcolmg said:

Patrick said:

MalcolmG won't be pleased:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10721556/Scotlands-goose-that-lays-golden-eggs-has-gone-on-strike-Mr-Salmond.html

Another load of bollocks, do we believe this cretin or judge by the £15B investment. I doubt very much that the oil companies are throwing money at it to get no return. A blind man would know that there is plenty left and it will be going up in price and Scotland will be in control of it.

I'm guessing you'd want Scotland to be independent even if there never had been any oil under the North Sea in the first place?

For sure