Suddenly, people have stopped laughing & are now realising that it is very likely that REFORM UK win the next election.
They laughed when I said I was going to become a comedian. They're not laughing now.
Can anyone give a convincing explanation of why Reform won't end up like the SDP/Liberal Alliance in the 80s? Lots of flattering opinions polls, some impressive by-election wins, maybe a few defections but a flop in terms of seats won at a general election? The Alliance had a way better electoral machine but still couldn't break the two party hegemony in terms of seats won.
The SDP/Liberal Alliance soaked up ex-Labour voters who would otherwise have stayed at home or voted directly for Thatcher in a forced choice. I think the factors that have propelled Reform into the lead are very different.
Suddenly, people have stopped laughing & are now realising that it is very likely that REFORM UK win the next election.
They laughed when I said I was going to become a comedian. They're not laughing now.
Can anyone give a convincing explanation of why Reform won't end up like the SDP/Liberal Alliance in the 80s? Lots of flattering opinions polls, some impressive by-election wins, maybe a few defections but a flop in terms of seats won at a general election? The Alliance had a way better electoral machine but still couldn't break the two party hegemony in terms of seats won.
Because it's coming off a general election where already neither of the two dominant parties commanded much more than a third of the vote. That's completely different to the 80s.
The previous times the top two parties got below 40% of the vote were 1974, 2005, 2010 and 2015. But last year one also fell a long way below 30%. Empirically, the situation isn't comparable.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday authorized economic and travel sanctions targeting people who work on International Criminal Court investigations of U.S. citizens or U.S. allies such as Israel, repeating action he took during his first term.
Some interesting stats from that find out now poll.
First, for the right wing it’s mixed news. RefCon is on 47% vs 48% for LLG. That’s lower than most polls.
But it’s now getting a bit more consolidated. The ratio is 0.72. 0.66 is the point of no return. If it gets there then the Tories go the way of Les Republicains. Don’t disappear, but get relegated to a rural conservative heartland.
Second, the SPLORG is now on the march. This is 57% SPLORG. Would have been unheard of before the last election.
The tables are quite something too. Given '24 was a low turnout election...
15% of DNVs at GE '24 now say they would vote for Reform (compared with 8% for the Conservatives)
1/4 of the Conservative vote has gone to Reform
Reform's overall voter retention is excellent, 86% compared with 54% for the Conservatives
(I'm using the "Voting" tab)
The DNV number sounds a note of caution for them though. Will those people actually turn up.
This is the secret power of the Tories. Their voter base vote. Come hell or high water.
What's left of it.
Who's still voting Conservative apart from the fraction of home owning pensioners who find Reform vulgar, angry farmers, a few rural Scottish Unionists, and Never Labour voters in straight Lab-Con contests? What use are they to anyone else?
The only thing that's surprising about Tory vote share is that it isn't even lower.
The Tories have had terrible times before, but I can't remember ever a time when politics watchers taking a long view might begin to wonder whether there is a way back. It's not the figures, though they are dire; it's the combination of calibre/quality and momentum of the parties who want to beat them seat by seat. In almost every seat - and they start with only a few - they are vulnerable to one of LD, Lab and Reform. If that combines, by the magic of voter momentum, to ensure only one of them is the real challenger in virtually every seat they hold, and most they don't, the Tories look finished.
I am hopefully planning a series of headers looking at each of the parties.
For me, the end of the Cold war led to the "End of History" and less ideological politics. This in turn led to managerialism in both major parties and a frequent career path of PPE - SPAD/wonk - MP - minister, with no experience in the real world required.
The era of globalization is now ending and both major parties are in trouble as ideology is coming back. The problem is summed up by Rishi's National Service policy. Did he really believe in it? No, of course not. My guess is a bunch of SPADS came up with it on a white board.
The problem with the managerialists is that they don't actually believe in anything so they have no authenticity. Farage and Corbyn, love them or loathe them, have authenticity. The Cons and Lab right now, don't.
But imagine that since the dawn of time each country in the world had been led by ideology free politicians focused only on making incremental improvements to the lives of the populace without spilling anything. No sound or fury, no bloodshed, no 'visions', no revolutions and counter revolutions, just a quiet tick tick tick of things getting that little bit better each year, decade, century.
So boring. Far fewer history books to read. But we'd be in much better shape today, wouldn't we. Much better shape. So for me "managerialism" is no insult. At its finest, executed with competence and integrity, it's the highest form of politics. The hardest to achieve, the most beneficial, deserving of the utmost respect.
The managerial politicians of the medieval period were clear that their job was to prevent economic opportunity, freeze wages, and generally ossify society in place.
Some ideologues wrecked the situation with crazed ideas about freedom & enlightenment.
Trump's meeting w/ members still ongoing but @PressSec said he laid out tax priorities: -No tax on tips, Social Security, overtime pay -Renew 2017 tax cuts -Adjust SALT cap -Eliminate tax breaks for "billionaire sports team owners" -Close carried interest tax deduction loophole https://x.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1887569387533615509
Suddenly, people have stopped laughing & are now realising that it is very likely that REFORM UK win the next election.
They laughed when I said I was going to become a comedian. They're not laughing now.
Can anyone give a convincing explanation of why Reform won't end up like the SDP/Liberal Alliance in the 80s? Lots of flattering opinions polls, some impressive by-election wins, maybe a few defections but a flop in terms of seats won at a general election? The Alliance had a way better electoral machine but still couldn't break the two party hegemony in terms of seats won.
Because it's coming off a general election where already neither of the two dominant parties commanded much more than a third of the vote. That's completely different to the 80s.
The previous times the top two parties got below 40% of the vote were 1974, 2005, 2010 and 2015. But last year one also fell a long way below 30%. Empirically, the situation isn't comparable.
In the 80s, you had Labour respond to Thatcher by going bonkers. The criticism of Thatcher was that she was wrong, not that she was incompetent.
The situation now is that both main parties are on core vote. Because they have run out of ideas and they have exhausted much of the patience of the electorate.
It's almost as if the alt-liberals want Ref to win the next election. Not sure why. Similar to the way the Democrats were almost doing everything they could to make another Trump win possible.
Trump won because of cost of living, if his tariffs raise prices the Democrats will win the next election for the same reason
Suddenly, people have stopped laughing & are now realising that it is very likely that REFORM UK win the next election.
They laughed when I said I was going to become a comedian. They're not laughing now.
Can anyone give a convincing explanation of why Reform won't end up like the SDP/Liberal Alliance in the 80s? Lots of flattering opinions polls, some impressive by-election wins, maybe a few defections but a flop in terms of seats won at a general election? The Alliance had a way better electoral machine but still couldn't break the two party hegemony in terms of seats won.
The SDP/Liberal Alliance soaked up ex-Labour voters who would otherwise have stayed at home or voted directly for Thatcher in a forced choice. I think the factors that have propelled Reform into the lead are very different.
Though on the poll average Labour will still win most seats not Reform albeit in a hung parliament
It's almost as if the alt-liberals want Ref to win the next election. Not sure why. Similar to the way the Democrats were almost doing everything they could to make another Trump win possible.
The problem is that all answers are The Wrong Answer.
Which is why you have people saying "The Country Is Ungovernable". This is traditional code for I-am-right-and-the-People-are-Wrong.
It is perfectly possible to craft a structure of policies that would get a majority in the country. Both from left and right. But this would mean actually being courageous and taking difficult decisions. Instead of doing the Difficult Decisions Performative Dance (no actual decisions included).
Some interesting stats from that find out now poll.
First, for the right wing it’s mixed news. RefCon is on 47% vs 48% for LLG. That’s lower than most polls.
But it’s now getting a bit more consolidated. The ratio is 0.72. 0.66 is the point of no return. If it gets there then the Tories go the way of Les Republicains. Don’t disappear, but get relegated to a rural conservative heartland.
Second, the SPLORG is now on the march. This is 57% SPLORG. Would have been unheard of before the last election.
The tables are quite something too. Given '24 was a low turnout election...
15% of DNVs at GE '24 now say they would vote for Reform (compared with 8% for the Conservatives)
1/4 of the Conservative vote has gone to Reform
Reform's overall voter retention is excellent, 86% compared with 54% for the Conservatives
(I'm using the "Voting" tab)
The DNV number sounds a note of caution for them though. Will those people actually turn up.
This is the secret power of the Tories. Their voter base vote. Come hell or high water.
What's left of it.
Who's still voting Conservative apart from the fraction of home owning pensioners who find Reform vulgar, angry farmers, a few rural Scottish Unionists, and Never Labour voters in straight Lab-Con contests? What use are they to anyone else?
The only thing that's surprising about Tory vote share is that it isn't even lower.
The Tories have had terrible times before, but I can't remember ever a time when politics watchers taking a long view might begin to wonder whether there is a way back. It's not the figures, though they are dire; it's the combination of calibre/quality and momentum of the parties who want to beat them seat by seat. In almost every seat - and they start with only a few - they are vulnerable to one of LD, Lab and Reform. If that combines, by the magic of voter momentum, to ensure only one of them is the real challenger in virtually every seat they hold, and most they don't, the Tories look finished.
I am hopefully planning a series of headers looking at each of the parties.
For me, the end of the Cold war led to the "End of History" and less ideological politics. This in turn led to managerialism in both major parties and a frequent career path of PPE - SPAD/wonk - MP - minister, with no experience in the real world required.
The era of globalization is now ending and both major parties are in trouble as ideology is coming back. The problem is summed up by Rishi's National Service policy. Did he really believe in it? No, of course not. My guess is a bunch of SPADS came up with it on a white board.
The problem with the managerialists is that they don't actually believe in anything so they have no authenticity. Farage and Corbyn, love them or loathe them, have authenticity. The Cons and Lab right now, don't.
But imagine that since the dawn of time each country in the world had been led by ideology free politicians focused only on making incremental improvements to the lives of the populace without spilling anything. No sound or fury, no bloodshed, no 'visions', no revolutions and counter revolutions, just a quiet tick tick tick of things getting that little bit better each year, decade, century.
So boring. Far fewer history books to read. But we'd be in much better shape today, wouldn't we. Much better shape. So for me "managerialism" is no insult. At its finest, executed with competence and integrity, it's the highest form of politics. The hardest to achieve, the most beneficial, deserving of the utmost respect.
The managerial politicians of the medieval period were clear that their job was to prevent economic opportunity, freeze wages, and generally ossify society in place.
Some ideologues wrecked the situation with crazed ideas about freedom & enlightenment.
The new ideologues want to reverse that, apparently.
Some interesting stats from that find out now poll.
First, for the right wing it’s mixed news. RefCon is on 47% vs 48% for LLG. That’s lower than most polls.
But it’s now getting a bit more consolidated. The ratio is 0.72. 0.66 is the point of no return. If it gets there then the Tories go the way of Les Republicains. Don’t disappear, but get relegated to a rural conservative heartland.
Second, the SPLORG is now on the march. This is 57% SPLORG. Would have been unheard of before the last election.
The tables are quite something too. Given '24 was a low turnout election...
15% of DNVs at GE '24 now say they would vote for Reform (compared with 8% for the Conservatives)
1/4 of the Conservative vote has gone to Reform
Reform's overall voter retention is excellent, 86% compared with 54% for the Conservatives
(I'm using the "Voting" tab)
The DNV number sounds a note of caution for them though. Will those people actually turn up.
This is the secret power of the Tories. Their voter base vote. Come hell or high water.
What's left of it.
Who's still voting Conservative apart from the fraction of home owning pensioners who find Reform vulgar, angry farmers, a few rural Scottish Unionists, and Never Labour voters in straight Lab-Con contests? What use are they to anyone else?
The only thing that's surprising about Tory vote share is that it isn't even lower.
The Tories have had terrible times before, but I can't remember ever a time when politics watchers taking a long view might begin to wonder whether there is a way back. It's not the figures, though they are dire; it's the combination of calibre/quality and momentum of the parties who want to beat them seat by seat. In almost every seat - and they start with only a few - they are vulnerable to one of LD, Lab and Reform. If that combines, by the magic of voter momentum, to ensure only one of them is the real challenger in virtually every seat they hold, and most they don't, the Tories look finished.
I am hopefully planning a series of headers looking at each of the parties.
For me, the end of the Cold war led to the "End of History" and less ideological politics. This in turn led to managerialism in both major parties and a frequent career path of PPE - SPAD/wonk - MP - minister, with no experience in the real world required.
The era of globalization is now ending and both major parties are in trouble as ideology is coming back. The problem is summed up by Rishi's National Service policy. Did he really believe in it? No, of course not. My guess is a bunch of SPADS came up with it on a white board.
The problem with the managerialists is that they don't actually believe in anything so they have no authenticity. Farage and Corbyn, love them or loathe them, have authenticity. The Cons and Lab right now, don't.
But imagine that since the dawn of time each country in the world had been led by ideology free politicians focused only on making incremental improvements to the lives of the populace without spilling anything. No sound or fury, no bloodshed, no 'visions', no revolutions and counter revolutions, just a quiet tick tick tick of things getting that little bit better each year, decade, century.
So boring. Far fewer history books to read. But we'd be in much better shape today, wouldn't we. Much better shape. So for me "managerialism" is no insult. At its finest, executed with competence and integrity, it's the highest form of politics. The hardest to achieve, the most beneficial, deserving of the utmost respect.
The managerial politicians of the medieval period were clear that their job was to prevent economic opportunity, freeze wages, and generally ossify society in place.
Some ideologues wrecked the situation with crazed ideas about freedom & enlightenment.
The new ideologues want to reverse that, apparently.
As I pointed out to my American relatives, years ago, progress is guaranteed. The direction is not.
But, they said, we have the courts. And the Law is fundamentally progressive...
Suddenly, people have stopped laughing & are now realising that it is very likely that REFORM UK win the next election.
They laughed when I said I was going to become a comedian. They're not laughing now.
Can anyone give a convincing explanation of why Reform won't end up like the SDP/Liberal Alliance in the 80s? Lots of flattering opinions polls, some impressive by-election wins, maybe a few defections but a flop in terms of seats won at a general election? The Alliance had a way better electoral machine but still couldn't break the two party hegemony in terms of seats won.
Because the Conservatives and Labour no longer have deep-rooted loyalties, among millions of voters.
There is merit in Gray’s critique of “hyper- liberalism”, which is not real liberalism, but a system which has lost complete touch with reality.
Nobody, starting from scratch, would devise a system whereby the families of terrorists, actively engaged in attempted murder, could successfully sue the State, because its agents *shot back*. Or where “the right to a family life”, on the part of murderers and drug traffickers, trumps any considerations of public safety.
Suddenly, people have stopped laughing & are now realising that it is very likely that REFORM UK win the next election.
They laughed when I said I was going to become a comedian. They're not laughing now.
Can anyone give a convincing explanation of why Reform won't end up like the SDP/Liberal Alliance in the 80s? Lots of flattering opinions polls, some impressive by-election wins, maybe a few defections but a flop in terms of seats won at a general election? The Alliance had a way better electoral machine but still couldn't break the two party hegemony in terms of seats won.
Because the Conservatives and Labour no longer have deep-rooted loyalties, among millions of voters.
The Alliance had two problems - internal disunity which came to a head at Eastbourne and the truth the electorate always saw them through the prism of the two main parties. Were they soft Tories or centrist Labour? It helped the Alliance and later the Liberal Democrats to maintain what was called “equidistance” and my view is had the LDs been forced into a decision in 1992 they’d have backed a Kinnock minority and suffered the same fate in 1997 as they actually did in 2015.
Reform face a similar positioning dilemma - are they a party of Thatcherites, Johnsonian refugees or culturally conservative socialists? At the moment, they are all of the above and more.
At some point, they will need to decide what they really are or want to be.
Abandoned in the Middle of Clinical Trials, Because of a Trump Order
The stop-work order on U.S.A.I.D.-funded research has left thousands of people with experimental drugs and devices in their bodies, with no access to monitoring or care.
NY Times
Trump 2.0 - as bad and nasty as you thought it would be.
But hey - they all say they is christians and love god and go to church every week.
Not only that it's hitting Midwest farmers too. Last year USAID bought $2 billion of grain.
There is merit in Gray’s critique of “hyper- liberalism”, which is not real liberalism, but a system which has lost complete touch with reality.
Nobody, starting from scratch, would devise a system whereby the families of terrorists, actively engaged in attempted murder, could successfully sue the State, because its agents *shot back*. Or where “the right to a family life”, on the part of murderers and drug traffickers, trumps any considerations of public safety.
Indeed.
But all systems have flaws: and the big question is whether what replaces “hyper- liberalism” will have more, or fewer, such perversities. After all, no system is perfect.
For instance, replacing "the right to a family life" with "chuck anyone I don't like out the country" would be a bad move for the country, I'd argue. But that's what some people want.
It's almost as if the alt-liberals want Ref to win the next election. Not sure why. Similar to the way the Democrats were almost doing everything they could to make another Trump win possible.
The problem is that all answers are The Wrong Answer.
Which is why you have people saying "The Country Is Ungovernable". This is traditional code for I-am-right-and-the-People-are-Wrong.
It is perfectly possible to craft a structure of policies that would get a majority in the country. Both from left and right. But this would mean actually being courageous and taking difficult decisions. Instead of doing the Difficult Decisions Performative Dance (no actual decisions included).
Actually, I disagree. Even if you did craft a structure of policies that tool courageous and difficult decisions, the opposition would just say: "There's an easier solution just here!", even when that solution would not work.
On the topic of DOGE’s attack on the NIH, anyone care to speculate about the ROI on these research projects ?
Since we're talking about funding of absurd research by NIH and other federal agencies, they funded scientists:
- watching flies fuck - giving rats massages - spending years digging into why jellyfish glow - tracking penguin poop from space - using horseshoe crab blood.. https://x.com/neubadah/status/1859095096396050637
Just in case anyone has not noticed yet, this was a very skilful Heffelump Trap to trip up, then maybe wake-up, some of the not-totally-programmed Trumpists, and neutrals.
Read the thread !
In fairness to some if I click the link I cannot see the replies as I don't have an account, so people may not have had a chance to see the rest of thread - nitter is very useful in that regard.
That's interesting.
I thought Musky had made it all readable now, including even blocked accounts, which had caused even more people to walk away, including to Bluesky which Leon will be delighted to know is up by another 10% or so in the last couple of weeks .
(And if anybody wants to be added to the PB starter pack do PM me.)
Rubio claims that @USAID lifesaving assistance for health and humanitarian needs will continue. But his team just communicated that the entire agency will be imminently reduced from 14,000 to 294 people. Just 12 in Africa.
There is merit in Gray’s critique of “hyper- liberalism”, which is not real liberalism, but a system which has lost complete touch with reality.
Nobody, starting from scratch, would devise a system whereby the families of terrorists, actively engaged in attempted murder, could successfully sue the State, because its agents *shot back*. Or where “the right to a family life”, on the part of murderers and drug traffickers, trumps any considerations of public safety.
Is hyper-liberalism (as characterised) a creature of currently mainstream Labour (ie the Starmer emphasis) or more the Corbyn - Green Party leadership emphasis?
(As you know, I distinguish quite strongly between Green Party national policy, and local practice, and have done since the nougties when I became more interested in politics.)
The Right (Reform - Tory Right) are trying to characterise Starmer & Co as various forms of Socialist. The current American Right (say from Trumpist to Christian Nationalist which bleeds into some UK factions) have the UK Govt down as "extreme Radical Leftist"). The Corbynite Left have Starmer down as centrist/right - I am sure that some are calling him Tory but I haven't seen it yet.
Much of that is attempts to shift the Overton Window imo.
I'm inclined to think the Trumpist Right is neo-fascist nationalism in a Mussolini or maybe Franco (I don't know much about him) mould, borrowing from 3rd World dictators, and that Reform / Tory have moved right using immigration / race as their levers.
I'd call Starmer left-centrist technocrat, at present, I think. He's currently focused on making things work better, and rebuilding on a salted field.
Btw, hoping this is totally unnecessary but if you want to be added to the PB life boat list on Twitter, so it's easier to reconstitute the site if the Online Draconian Act causes problems, just let me know (I'm MorrisF1).
Abandoned in the Middle of Clinical Trials, Because of a Trump Order
The stop-work order on U.S.A.I.D.-funded research has left thousands of people with experimental drugs and devices in their bodies, with no access to monitoring or care.
NY Times
Trump 2.0 - as bad and nasty as you thought it would be.
But hey - they all say they is christians and love god and go to church every week.
Not only that it's hitting Midwest farmers too. Last year USAID bought $2 billion of grain.
Government by kids who pull the wings off flies. Because....
Sheikh Mohamed and Mr Macron underlined their intention to create a strategic AI partnership, state news agency Wam reported. They are committed to working together on AI projects, including data centre infrastructure and talent development, it added. They also intend to establish Virtual Data Embassies to enable sovereign AI and cloud infrastructure in both countries.
The way I read that is that Macron is seriously concerned about the restrictive EU AI policy, and wants to co-operate with non-EU countries that have a more enlightened view of the subject.
Labour are SO fucked, and we haven't even had the inevitable economic crisis yet
That's possibly the first good news Labour have had since July.
0.75% growth in 2025. It’s utterly desperate and Labour are panicking and clueless
It also means falling GDP per capita AGAIN if immigration stays high, and Labour are doing little to prevent that
And what if that 0.75% turns into outright stagnation? It won’t take much
We are headed for a fiscal cliff and the ruination of the nation. On the upside, fine warm sunny weather prevails here in Bangkok, and is expected to continue
Sheikh Mohamed and Mr Macron underlined their intention to create a strategic AI partnership, state news agency Wam reported. They are committed to working together on AI projects, including data centre infrastructure and talent development, it added. They also intend to establish Virtual Data Embassies to enable sovereign AI and cloud infrastructure in both countries.
The way I read that is that Macron is seriously concerned about the restrictive EU AI policy, and wants to co-operate with non-EU countries that have a more enlightened view of the subject.
There's a non-EU country much closer to home they could work with...
Sheikh Mohamed and Mr Macron underlined their intention to create a strategic AI partnership, state news agency Wam reported. They are committed to working together on AI projects, including data centre infrastructure and talent development, it added. They also intend to establish Virtual Data Embassies to enable sovereign AI and cloud infrastructure in both countries.
The way I read that is that Macron is seriously concerned about the restrictive EU AI policy, and wants to co-operate with non-EU countries that have a more enlightened view of the subject.
There's a non-EU country much closer to home they could work with...
The UAE is a criminal cesspit where you can get whatever you want by bribery. So, in that sense, a reliable partner. The UK is still in a period of schizophrenic hysteria and hasn't fully worked through its "stuff" yet.
I’ve just realised this is the only island in the world with a sleeper train. Great Britain is a very big island.
Honshu is bigger but doesn't need sleepers?
Though it is a pet peeve of mine when people bemoan us as a small island. I know the point being made is typically one about it not being good to be isolated, and that compared to big blocs we are small, but just say that, don't use words to suggest an extremely large island is a small island.
9th largest in the world, and largest (by far) in Europe.
Beating us are:
- Greenland - New Guinea - Borneo - Madagascar - Baffin - Sumatra - Honshu - Victoria island
So we are the largest temperate island. Amazing though to think there is an island in Canada, that nobody’s heard of, that’s not Baffin or Ellesmere, that’s bigger than Britain.
Sheikh Mohamed and Mr Macron underlined their intention to create a strategic AI partnership, state news agency Wam reported. They are committed to working together on AI projects, including data centre infrastructure and talent development, it added. They also intend to establish Virtual Data Embassies to enable sovereign AI and cloud infrastructure in both countries.
The way I read that is that Macron is seriously concerned about the restrictive EU AI policy, and wants to co-operate with non-EU countries that have a more enlightened view of the subject.
There's a non-EU country much closer to home they could work with...
The UAE is a criminal cesspit where you can get whatever you want by bribery. So, in that sense, a reliable partner. The UK is still in a period of schizophrenic hysteria and hasn't fully worked through its "stuff" yet.
@TimS is wrong about the island train sleeper thing, but he’s right to rave about the Caledonian Sleeper
I’ve done most of the great train journeys in the world - the Ghan, the Trans-Siberian, the Rockies and more - but the Cally Sleeper is brilliantly unique in its dramatic change
You go to sleep in the heart of a great throbbing world city and you wake up in a truly beautiful iconic wilderness - the Highlands. It’s kinda perfect
I’ve done it multiple times, on one occasion I opened the curtain, which the prior evening I’d shut around Luton, and found myself staring at a red deer stag
Sheikh Mohamed and Mr Macron underlined their intention to create a strategic AI partnership, state news agency Wam reported. They are committed to working together on AI projects, including data centre infrastructure and talent development, it added. They also intend to establish Virtual Data Embassies to enable sovereign AI and cloud infrastructure in both countries.
The way I read that is that Macron is seriously concerned about the restrictive EU AI policy, and wants to co-operate with non-EU countries that have a more enlightened view of the subject.
There's a non-EU country much closer to home they could work with...
Sheikh Mohamed and Mr Macron underlined their intention to create a strategic AI partnership, state news agency Wam reported. They are committed to working together on AI projects, including data centre infrastructure and talent development, it added. They also intend to establish Virtual Data Embassies to enable sovereign AI and cloud infrastructure in both countries.
The way I read that is that Macron is seriously concerned about the restrictive EU AI policy, and wants to co-operate with non-EU countries that have a more enlightened view of the subject.
There's a non-EU country much closer to home they could work with...
Oh indeed, but you know, French…
The French are panicking about “le tech”. Mistral - their big hope - is falling behind and their national chatbot was a humiliating failure
There is merit in Gray’s critique of “hyper- liberalism”, which is not real liberalism, but a system which has lost complete touch with reality.
Nobody, starting from scratch, would devise a system whereby the families of terrorists, actively engaged in attempted murder, could successfully sue the State, because its agents *shot back*. Or where “the right to a family life”, on the part of murderers and drug traffickers, trumps any considerations of public safety.
I’ve not seen any polling or focus groups that would suggest that these issues were big drivers of voting intention.
Sheikh Mohamed and Mr Macron underlined their intention to create a strategic AI partnership, state news agency Wam reported. They are committed to working together on AI projects, including data centre infrastructure and talent development, it added. They also intend to establish Virtual Data Embassies to enable sovereign AI and cloud infrastructure in both countries.
The way I read that is that Macron is seriously concerned about the restrictive EU AI policy, and wants to co-operate with non-EU countries that have a more enlightened view of the subject.
Macron is just doing his job as French president and pushing the interests of France above anything else.
The French are good at this. AI summit that Starmer is missing in Paris next week has been turned into being about France as a leader in AI, they will sign loads of agreements like this at the summit too.
Starmer won’t be there to try and bag signatures and partnerships, it will be someone like Miliband who will stand there hectoring everyone that AI is a drain on the environment and everyone will say “fuck off Ed” and carry on leaving the UK behind.
So good for Macron, and the French, less squeamish about doing deals in their interests with whoever without the bbc and guardian whining about bad people, less bothered about following EU rules they created to the letter when they don’t suit and definitely would have told the U.N. where to go over Chagos ruling.
Putting a billionaire @sshat and his young minions in charge of the government payment systems, and getting rid of anti-corruption people, and actively attacking those who investigated corruption in the past, are all solid indicators of the way the USA is heading.
Sheikh Mohamed and Mr Macron underlined their intention to create a strategic AI partnership, state news agency Wam reported. They are committed to working together on AI projects, including data centre infrastructure and talent development, it added. They also intend to establish Virtual Data Embassies to enable sovereign AI and cloud infrastructure in both countries.
The way I read that is that Macron is seriously concerned about the restrictive EU AI policy, and wants to co-operate with non-EU countries that have a more enlightened view of the subject.
Macron is just doing his job as French president and pushing the interests of France above anything else.
The French are good at this. AI summit that Starmer is missing in Paris next week has been turned into being about France as a leader in AI, they will sign loads of agreements like this at the summit too.
Starmer won’t be there to try and bag signatures and partnerships, it will be someone like Miliband who will stand there hectoring everyone that AI is a drain on the environment and everyone will say “fuck off Ed” and carry on leaving the UK behind.
So good for Macron, and the French, less squeamish about doing deals in their interests with whoever without the bbc and guardian whining about bad people, less bothered about following EU rules they created to the letter when they don’t suit and definitely would have told the U.N. where to go over Chagos ruling.
Much as Macron may wish it, it will be much harder for France to circumvent EU law than you breezily suggest
The idea France merrily ignores EU law when it sees fit is something of a myth. This is why Macron and Mistral et al fought so bitterly against EU law in THIS area. They saw the threat, but too late
On Chagos you are of course correct. They would completely ignore the ludicrous ICJ "ruling"
Sheikh Mohamed and Mr Macron underlined their intention to create a strategic AI partnership, state news agency Wam reported. They are committed to working together on AI projects, including data centre infrastructure and talent development, it added. They also intend to establish Virtual Data Embassies to enable sovereign AI and cloud infrastructure in both countries.
The way I read that is that Macron is seriously concerned about the restrictive EU AI policy, and wants to co-operate with non-EU countries that have a more enlightened view of the subject.
There's a non-EU country much closer to home they could work with...
Oh indeed, but you know, French…
The French are panicking about “le tech”. Mistral - their big hope - is falling behind and their national chatbot was a humiliating failure
Well, what did they expect when a French "chat" is just a Gallic shrug....
I’ve just realised this is the only island in the world with a sleeper train. Great Britain is a very big island.
Honshu is bigger but doesn't need sleepers?
Though it is a pet peeve of mine when people bemoan us as a small island. I know the point being made is typically one about it not being good to be isolated, and that compared to big blocs we are small, but just say that, don't use words to suggest an extremely large island is a small island.
9th largest in the world, and largest (by far) in Europe.
Beating us are:
- Greenland - New Guinea - Borneo - Madagascar - Baffin - Sumatra - Honshu - Victoria island
So we are the largest temperate island. Amazing though to think there is an island in Canada, that nobody’s heard of, that’s not Baffin or Ellesmere, that’s bigger than Britain.
Isn't that the Anne of Green Gables island?
No, that was Prince Edward Island.
Canada smallest province by both size and population. A Canuck Rutland.
Rubio claims that @USAID lifesaving assistance for health and humanitarian needs will continue. But his team just communicated that the entire agency will be imminently reduced from 14,000 to 294 people. Just 12 in Africa.
No oil facilities obviously on fire this morning, but the Ukranians did seemingly manage to claim several miles of incursion into Kursk Oblast yesterday.
Rubio claims that @USAID lifesaving assistance for health and humanitarian needs will continue. But his team just communicated that the entire agency will be imminently reduced from 14,000 to 294 people. Just 12 in Africa.
The first sentence is marketing fluff, of course. They have already done the damage, and need a smokescreen to hide the thousands their decisions are causing to suffer or die.
As America Firsters, one would hope that they would not want to ensure that their country is not trusted for the next 50 years. But - no.
From the thread: We already see the shutdown's cost. Kids with drug-resistant TB, turned away from clinics, are not just dying - they're spreading the disease. People around the world w HIV, denied their medicine, will soon start transmitting virus. The damage is global. https://bsky.app/profile/agawande.bsky.social/post/3lhjy3l4npk2e.
Dariusz Sieczkowski - a forty-something poor man, lazy slob and loser from Poland. Since 2012, I have been inspiring hundreds of thousands of people from Poland to travel by train each year, but I do not travel myself (I am disabled person with very limited mobility). My knowledge is worthless and my work is a senseless waste of time.
Nowadays, especially in Poland, people like me have no chance to achieve anything."
Reform did very well last night, they seem to have little trouble either winning or coming a close second. The Lib Dems vote seems to hold up pretty well against them, suggest Mays local elections could be a contest between the two for most gains. Have noticed in the three town council by elections yesterday, all in the south, the Lib Dems won all three, but generally where Reform piled in the votes they were completely marginalised, Tendring the exception.
Comments
That's completely different to the 80s.
The previous times the top two parties got below 40% of the vote were 1974, 2005, 2010 and 2015.
But last year one also fell a long way below 30%. Empirically, the situation isn't comparable.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday authorized economic and travel sanctions targeting people who work on International Criminal Court investigations of U.S. citizens or U.S. allies such as Israel, repeating action he took during his first term.
Some ideologues wrecked the situation with crazed ideas about freedom & enlightenment.
https://x.com/BudgetHawks/status/1887596314147352971
Trump's meeting w/ members still ongoing but @PressSec said he laid out tax priorities:
-No tax on tips, Social Security, overtime pay
-Renew 2017 tax cuts
-Adjust SALT cap
-Eliminate tax breaks for "billionaire sports team owners"
-Close carried interest tax deduction loophole
https://x.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1887569387533615509
The situation now is that both main parties are on core vote. Because they have run out of ideas and they have exhausted much of the patience of the electorate.
Which is why you have people saying "The Country Is Ungovernable". This is traditional code for I-am-right-and-the-People-are-Wrong.
It is perfectly possible to craft a structure of policies that would get a majority in the country. Both from left and right. But this would mean actually being courageous and taking difficult decisions. Instead of doing the Difficult Decisions Performative Dance (no actual decisions included).
But, they said, we have the courts. And the Law is fundamentally progressive...
Yes, they actually said this.
"Nigel Farage is shaping Britain’s political future
Deluded progressives created the former Ukip leader
By John Gray"
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/02/nigel-farage-reform-uk-future
@BritainElects
❗ Reform GAIN from Labour (X2)
Rochester East and Warren Wood (Medway) council by-election result:
REF: 36.7% (+36.7)
LAB: 32.9% (-22.0)
CON: 20.2% (-5.8)
GRN: 5.9% (-6.3)
LDEM: 3.4% (-3.4)
+/- 2023"
https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1887670527348629835
Ref 870/802
Lab 781/717
Con 479/432
Grn 141/109
LD 81/80
Heritage 21
x.com/medway_council/status/1887670213824377133/photo/2
Nobody, starting from scratch, would devise a system whereby the families of terrorists, actively engaged in attempted murder, could successfully sue the State, because its agents *shot back*. Or where “the right to a family life”, on the part of murderers and drug traffickers, trumps any considerations of public safety.
Reform face a similar positioning dilemma - are they a party of Thatcherites, Johnsonian refugees or culturally conservative socialists? At the moment, they are all of the above and more.
At some point, they will need to decide what they really are or want to be.
But all systems have flaws: and the big question is whether what replaces “hyper- liberalism” will have more, or fewer, such perversities. After all, no system is perfect.
For instance, replacing "the right to a family life" with "chuck anyone I don't like out the country" would be a bad move for the country, I'd argue. But that's what some people want.
Which is why blaming "the other" is so popular...
I thought Musky had made it all readable now, including even blocked accounts, which had caused even more people to walk away, including to Bluesky which Leon will be delighted to know is up by another 10% or so in the last couple of weeks
(And if anybody wants to be added to the PB starter pack do PM me.)
https://bsky.app/profile/agawande.bsky.social/post/3lhjy3j6rak2e
(As you know, I distinguish quite strongly between Green Party national policy, and local practice, and have done since the nougties when I became more interested in politics.)
The Right (Reform - Tory Right) are trying to characterise Starmer & Co as various forms of Socialist. The current American Right (say from Trumpist to Christian Nationalist which bleeds into some UK factions) have the UK Govt down as "extreme Radical Leftist"). The Corbynite Left have Starmer down as centrist/right - I am sure that some are calling him Tory but I haven't seen it yet.
Much of that is attempts to shift the Overton Window imo.
I'm inclined to think the Trumpist Right is neo-fascist nationalism in a Mussolini or maybe Franco (I don't know much about him) mould, borrowing from 3rd World dictators, and that Reform / Tory have moved right using immigration / race as their levers.
I'd call Starmer left-centrist technocrat, at present, I think. He's currently focused on making things work better, and rebuilding on a salted field.
(Until he looks at a map of Greenland's glaciers... https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-Greenland-with-all-official-glacier-names-plotted-in-red-733-glaciers-in-total_fig1_276837737 )
For early birds who missed it before, here's my season predictions for F1 in 2025:
Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-predictions/
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4iAoLcyCp2AdTNKpGlMISp
Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/528d339c-050c-409e-bc4c-d3eec5a77152/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-predictions
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000689601818
Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/02/f1-2025-predictions-undercutters-ep8.html
Btw, hoping this is totally unnecessary but if you want to be added to the PB life boat list on Twitter, so it's easier to reconstitute the site if the Online Draconian Act causes problems, just let me know (I'm MorrisF1).
https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/2025/02/06/president-sheikh-mohamed-meets-macron-in-paris-ahead-of-ai-summit/
Sheikh Mohamed and Mr Macron underlined their intention to create a strategic AI partnership, state news agency Wam reported. They are committed to working together on AI projects, including data centre infrastructure and talent development, it added. They also intend to establish Virtual Data Embassies to enable sovereign AI and cloud infrastructure in both countries.
The way I read that is that Macron is seriously concerned about the restrictive EU AI policy, and wants to co-operate with non-EU countries that have a more enlightened view of the subject.
It also means falling GDP per capita AGAIN if immigration stays high, and Labour are doing little to prevent that
And what if that 0.75% turns into outright stagnation? It won’t take much
We are headed for a fiscal cliff and the ruination of the nation. On the upside, fine warm sunny weather prevails here in Bangkok, and is expected to continue
https://www.japanprivatetour.com/luxury-trains
I’ve done most of the great train journeys in the world - the Ghan, the Trans-Siberian, the Rockies and more - but the Cally Sleeper is brilliantly unique in its dramatic change
You go to sleep in the heart of a great throbbing world city and you wake up in a truly beautiful iconic wilderness - the Highlands. It’s kinda perfect
I’ve done it multiple times, on one occasion I opened the curtain, which the prior evening I’d shut around Luton, and found myself staring at a red deer stag
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/reform-top-of-spectator-poll-tracker/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-federal-election-commission-commissioner-chair-says-trump-removed-her-office-2025-02-07/
The French are good at this. AI summit that Starmer is missing in Paris next week has been turned into being about France as a leader in AI, they will sign loads of agreements like this at the summit too.
Starmer won’t be there to try and bag signatures and partnerships, it will be someone like Miliband who will stand there hectoring everyone that AI is a drain on the environment and everyone will say “fuck off Ed” and carry on leaving the UK behind.
So good for Macron, and the French, less squeamish about doing deals in their interests with whoever without the bbc and guardian whining about bad people, less bothered about following EU rules they created to the letter when they don’t suit and definitely would have told the U.N. where to go over Chagos ruling.
And shits still support Trump and the GOP.
The idea France merrily ignores EU law when it sees fit is something of a myth. This is why Macron and Mistral et al fought so bitterly against EU law in THIS area. They saw the threat, but too late
On Chagos you are of course correct. They would completely ignore the ludicrous ICJ "ruling"
I mean, it’s not the guardian
Canada smallest province by both size and population. A Canuck Rutland.
NEW THREAD
https://trenopedia.com/train-travel-on-sakhalin-island/
Well done, sir!
https://x.com/bricktop_nafo/status/1887739011940118606
Six months ago Ukraine invaded Russia, and Russia still hasn’t managed to restore their border.
As America Firsters, one would hope that they would not want to ensure that their country is not trusted for the next 50 years. But - no.
From the thread:
We already see the shutdown's cost. Kids with drug-resistant TB, turned away from clinics, are not just dying - they're spreading the disease. People around the world w HIV, denied their medicine, will soon start transmitting virus. The damage is global.
https://bsky.app/profile/agawande.bsky.social/post/3lhjy3l4npk2e.
One emblematic example: The stop-work order on U.S.A.I.D.-funded research has left thousands of people with experimental drugs and devices in their bodies, with no access to monitoring or care.
https://archive.is/20250206231120/https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/06/health/usaid-clinical-trials-funding-trump.html
https://bsky.app/profile/agawande.bsky.social/post/3lhjy3l4npk2e
Dariusz Sieczkowski - a forty-something poor man, lazy slob and loser from Poland. Since 2012, I have been inspiring hundreds of thousands of people from Poland to travel by train each year, but I do not travel myself (I am disabled person with very limited mobility). My knowledge is worthless and my work is a senseless waste of time.
Nowadays, especially in Poland, people like me have no chance to achieve anything."
Have noticed in the three town council by elections yesterday, all in the south, the Lib Dems won all three, but generally where Reform piled in the votes they were completely marginalised, Tendring the exception.