Labour heading for quite a heavy defeat next year then. Agree?
Unless Labour's percentage goes down appreciably, into the low 30s (and how that would come about I cannot see), then I don't think the Con percentage matters all that much. The Tories will not beat what they got last time, and will struggle to match it, but even if they do it won't matter unless Labour actually start leaking support to a significant degree.
Ukraine. We are hearing the same statements of concerns expressed by the US & NATO over the build up of Russian forces on the border of Eastern Ukraine as we did over the disposition of Russian forces in the run up to the Crimea take over. Certainly the feeling is that the Russians are considering a move.
Certainly there have been incursions by what the old fashioned might call provocateurs have been going into a number of parts of Ukraine. This is something the GRU, the Russian military intelligence arm and a grouping that dwarfs the KGB and its successors, was made for decades ago, and still trains for.
That would be a very dangerous development: it's really hard to see how an invasion of Eastern Ukraine could happen without inevitable blanket economic sanctions, and quite possibly war.
'My inclination is towards a holiday home, but of course I'd rather it didn't halve in value in the next five years.'
If you go down the holiday home route,check out how easy it is to rent etc. the most common problem is that sooner or later you get bored with going to the same place.
Just a note to wish everyone associated with PB a great 10th aniversary. Whether you are Mike and his son, Feature writer, contributor or lurker, this site is really one where the bodies are buried. All the best for the future!!
kle4 Wrong, if the Tories beat the Labour score by 2-3%% or more they have a good chance of being the largest party. If they add back more of the Tories who have defected to UKIP to the 36% UKIP showed them on today then even if Labour scores 36% the Tories could still have more seats and the present Coalition could continue
kle4 Wrong, if the Tories beat the Labour score by 2-3%% or more they have a good chance of being the largest party. If they add back more of the Tories who have defected to UKIP to the 36% UKIP showed them on today then even if Labour scores 36% the Tories could still have more seats and the present Coalition could continue
Perhaps, but my issue was that in the event of Labour getting 36-37ish, I find it very difficult to see how the Tories will match what they got in 2010, let alone exceed it given the years of cuts, internal divisions and at least some loss of support to UKIP. The Tories on 38-39% when they could not manage it in 2010 and with the LD votes lost since then not likely to head their way in appreciable numbers? It doesn't seen very likely to me. Unless the Labour polling numbers drop, and it looks pretty solid I think, the task to get the most votes, let alone the most seats, seems very very tricky for the Tories to achieve.
A rarity: a weekend in which the sporting news was all good. Rugby win for son, Arsenal humiliated, Spurs snatch last minute victory, Barcelona down Real in Madrid. All very pleasant. Visca Barca! Bona nit.
Happy 10th Birthday to PB! Many thanks to Mike, Robert and the rest of the team for all their hard work.
I started posting back in 2005 as ChrisD after lurking for a bit first before I dipped my toe in the water with my first post, many thanks to JackW for being so kind and welcoming in his response. Catching up with the threads today, it was great to see Plato, Dyed Woolie, Ted and Morus all posting, and I really hope that they all return to the site on a regular basis as they have been missed.
'Unless Labour's percentage goes down appreciably'
Do you think the Lib Dems will actually end up with only 10% of the vote in 2015?
No. I think it will be at least a few points higher, maybe even up to 15-16% if they are lucky. That should drop Labour a few points and help aid a Tory win, although given what vote remains for the LDs will probably be a bit more concentrated than last time given their collapse in some regions, and most of their incumbent seats have Tories in second, it may not help the Tories as much as the overall number might suggest.
Nevertheless, while the Tories do need the Labour vote to drop in order to have a chance to win, or so I believe, the biggest hurdle is that they need their own vote to at the least match what they had in 2010, and probably exceed it, even if that opportunity of Labour dropping a few points as a result of a LD revivial occurs, as Labour are unlikely I would think to drop 7-8 points from where they are now to 2010 levels.
The Tories can hope for the Labour vote to drop, in fact they need it, but it is largely out of their hands, but the bit that is in their hands, bolstering their own vote, looks pretty unachievable given the scale of the challenge and their utter uselessness at party discipline.
I would be happy to be proved wrong. I do not fear an Ed M premiership, and I actually would prefer a coalition of some sort (not that this one has not disappointed), but I don't fear a Cameron premiership either.
It would also be pretty funny if he could manage to be PM for 10 years without ever winning a majority.
'Unless Labour's percentage goes down appreciably'
Do you think the Lib Dems will actually end up with only 10% of the vote in 2015?
Interesting question though - does Tories doing better actually firm up Lib Dem - Labour switchers? If they have switched because they found co-alition with the Tories unpalatable wouldn't the increasing likelihood of another dissuade their return?
A sad note to end the weekend with: Adolfo Suarez, the man who guided Spain from dictatorship to democracy after Franco, and who led the country's first democratically elected government for over 40 years, died this afternoon. RIP.
kle4 You need to look at the yougov internals, about 7% of 2010 LDs have defected to the Tories, they have not all gone to Labour. Add that to the 36% the Tories got in 2010 (if they win back the votes lost to UKIP) then you get a Tory total of around 38-39% which would surpass Labour's present total of around 35-36%
'No. I think it will be at least a few points higher, maybe even up to 15-16%'
Agree,I would have put it in that range,it may be different this time because the Lib Dems have a record to defend, but they always seem to start with a very low base and increase significantly during the campaign.
"The LDs would be fools to choose Cable over Alexander as shadow chancellor at GE2015"
Fools to want someone the voter seems to actually still like (comparatively) in the second most high profile spot for a GE campaign? It's certainly 'bold' thinking that wee Danny's lack of popularity would somehow cancel out Clegg's toxicity with the voters.
Not just the public in general though. Lest we forget when those lib dem members that are left are asked wee Danny is rated near the bottom along with Clegg while Vince has been at the top for years now. Hard to see how sidelining Cable and putting wee Danny front and centre would motivate the lib dem base.
Aside from that if Clegg really does want to do some serious differentiation posturing is there some reason why little Danny would keep "where the bodies are buried" a secret from Clegg? Wee Danny's differentiation on the economy would also have to start for it to be anything other than purely theoretical. Sure, he laughed at Grant Shapps and CCHQ's incompetence but who didn't apart from out of touch posh twerps?
As for claiming the credit for any recovery, how's that working out right now? Any bump for the lib dems after the budget even is such bumps tend to be temporary anyway?
The fact that so many PB tories seem very keen for wee Danny to be up against Osbrowne should speak for itself. With so many lib dem tory marginals in play I somehow don't think they have the best interest of the lib dems at heart.
In the end though it really doesn't matter who calamity Clegg picks since, if the lib dems take anywhere near the hammering the polls are pointing to, then another coalition is a complete pipe dream. The less lib dem MPs there are, the less chance there is a coalition.
Comments
'My inclination is towards a holiday home, but of course I'd rather it didn't halve in value in the next five years.'
If you go down the holiday home route,check out how easy it is to rent etc. the most common problem is that sooner or later you get bored with going to the same place.
'Unless Labour's percentage goes down appreciably'
Do you think the Lib Dems will actually end up with only 10% of the vote in 2015?
I started posting back in 2005 as ChrisD after lurking for a bit first before I dipped my toe in the water with my first post, many thanks to JackW for being so kind and welcoming in his response. Catching up with the threads today, it was great to see Plato, Dyed Woolie, Ted and Morus all posting, and I really hope that they all return to the site on a regular basis as they have been missed.
Nevertheless, while the Tories do need the Labour vote to drop in order to have a chance to win, or so I believe, the biggest hurdle is that they need their own vote to at the least match what they had in 2010, and probably exceed it, even if that opportunity of Labour dropping a few points as a result of a LD revivial occurs, as Labour are unlikely I would think to drop 7-8 points from where they are now to 2010 levels.
The Tories can hope for the Labour vote to drop, in fact they need it, but it is largely out of their hands, but the bit that is in their hands, bolstering their own vote, looks pretty unachievable given the scale of the challenge and their utter uselessness at party discipline.
I would be happy to be proved wrong. I do not fear an Ed M premiership, and I actually would prefer a coalition of some sort (not that this one has not disappointed), but I don't fear a Cameron premiership either.
It would also be pretty funny if he could manage to be PM for 10 years without ever winning a majority.
Interesting question though - does Tories doing better actually firm up Lib Dem - Labour switchers? If they have switched because they found co-alition with the Tories unpalatable wouldn't the increasing likelihood of another dissuade their return?
'No. I think it will be at least a few points higher, maybe even up to 15-16%'
Agree,I would have put it in that range,it may be different this time because the Lib Dems have a record to defend, but they always seem to start with a very low base and increase significantly during the campaign.
Fools to want someone the voter seems to actually still like (comparatively) in the second most high profile spot for a GE campaign? It's certainly 'bold' thinking that wee Danny's lack of popularity would somehow cancel out Clegg's toxicity with the voters.
Not just the public in general though. Lest we forget when those lib dem members that are left are asked wee Danny is rated near the bottom along with Clegg while Vince has been at the top for years now. Hard to see how sidelining Cable and putting wee Danny front and centre would motivate the lib dem base.
Aside from that if Clegg really does want to do some serious differentiation posturing is there some reason why little Danny would keep "where the bodies are buried" a secret from Clegg? Wee Danny's differentiation on the economy would also have to start for it to be anything other than purely theoretical. Sure, he laughed at Grant Shapps and CCHQ's incompetence but who didn't apart from out of touch posh twerps?
As for claiming the credit for any recovery, how's that working out right now? Any bump for the lib dems after the budget even is such bumps tend to be temporary anyway?
The fact that so many PB tories seem very keen for wee Danny to be up against Osbrowne should speak for itself. With so many lib dem tory marginals in play I somehow don't think they have the best interest of the lib dems at heart.
In the end though it really doesn't matter who calamity Clegg picks since, if the lib dems take anywhere near the hammering the polls are pointing to, then another coalition is a complete pipe dream. The less lib dem MPs there are, the less chance there is a coalition.
PB is by far my favourite politics site.
Keep up the excellent work and congratulations.
PB is by far my favourite politics site.
Congratulations and keep up the good work.