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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs would be fools to choose Cable over Alexander as sh
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs would be fools to choose Cable over Alexander as shadow chancellor at GE2015
There’s a little debate going on within the LDs over whether Vince Cable or Danny Alexander should by the party’s “shadow chancellor” at GE 2015. Both are cabinet ministers – Alexander is chief secretary to Treasury while Cable is the business secretary.
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Cable is also IMO more telegenic than Alexander or, for that matter, most of the Orange Bookers; he seems like a "wise old head" compared to Boy George.
I've met Alexander through mutual friends, and was pleasantly surprised. Very savvy.
Happy Birthday, pb and thanks to all those who set it up and maintained it.
This argument cuts both ways. Any failings by Alexander in his current role will be well known to the CotE and his team.
I concur with the thread's premise, but must admit that it's partly because I dislike Cable.
Edited extra bit: on an unrelated note, I'm rather enjoying Diplomacy, even if I am making newcomer errors.
Out of interest, why have you been panicking for a year? A year ago things were looking pretty rosy for Alastair Darling's prospects.
- "... as less time for them to try and change tack and shift the momentum."
Darling is constantly telling the BT campaign that complacency is their biggest enemy, but for some reason lots of Unionists ignore him. Not least the usual suspects here at PB. Maybe it is just not possible for a Labour politician to lead a team comprised of Lab+Con+LD ?
Alexander is 1/2 FAV in Inverness. Has anyone seen any prices for Twickenham yet?
That aside, it does seem to be a case of trying to co-operate for the minimum time possible. I was mildly amused that the Austrians treacherously attacked me at the exact same time I treacherously attacked them.
A decision on Alexander v Cable should only be taken after the Scots' referendum.
I would prefer Alexander with Cable taking a back seat elder statesman role.
I too am enjoying Diplomacy, it works better on line than face to face, when you can see who is conferring with whom. Declaring a tie is against the spirit of the game though.
Best CoE (vs Mar 10)
Osborne: 29 (+15)
Balls: 14 (-6 vs Darling)
Cable: 13 (-11)
No, not best way, what's that other word. Worst, yes, worst way. Not that it matters to the Lib Dems electoral chances.
But one counter argument is being missed. Cable is still, and has always been, a very accomplished communicator, especially when addressing a non-political audience. He has a good lecturer's ability to simplify and explain clearly. His style is professorial rather than partisan.
So in tv interviews and, say, on a QT type panel he will reach further than Danny.
But in a debate with George, then I would choose Danny for the reasons Mike has stated.
Much depends on which voters you're trying to woo. Danny Alexander will woo soft Tories better, Vince Cable will woo defectors to Labour better.
I'd go with Vince Cable.
June Hitchen (Manchester Cllr)
Catherine McDonald (Southwark Cllr, former SpAd, born in St Helens)
Marie Rimmer (former local council leader)
Danny la Rue!
That'll confuse them.
Chortle ....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26697322
Labour genuinely believe that government spending is the economy and that to reduce the deficit you've got to spend ever increasing amounts (despite all the evidence). A left wing party that could actually add up would gradually displace Labour as the main left-wing party.
Part of me thinks that the Lib Dems don't actually want power and would rather promise all things to all men from the sidelines instead.
Should as I expect the Coalition runs its course until election day then ministers will stay in place even though they are no longer MP's. Accordingly either Cable or Alexander may tackle the economics brief as required retaining maximum flexibility during the campaign.
An unusual situation to be sure but it throws up one of the quirks of Coalition government.
Alexander is blessed with the ability to help haul the economy out of the shit.
Set against that, only Vince has the nuclear option.
Or maybe that was a typo for unclear.
Oooppps ....
- "... as less time for them to try and change tack and shift the momentum."
Darling is constantly telling the BT campaign that complacency is their biggest enemy, but for some reason lots of Unionists ignore him. Not least the usual suspects here at PB. Maybe it is just not possible for a Labour politician to lead a team comprised of Lab+Con+LD ?
I've been panicking because I'm pessimistic. As much as I support the union I felt the Better Together side were too negative and not taking into account that the Yes side have the most passionate supporters, relentless drive, and the most effective leaders, so it always felt to me that as things approached the decision we would see crossover in their favour as a more positive message, even if absurd, would be more attractive.
I can't think of a single thing he has introduced? An idea that has he pushed through that has radically reformed / improved anything.
The answer is, once this parliament is over, he wont remember for achieving anything, even among politics geeks.
On the other hand, Alexander has consistently been seen as the steady hand on the controls and I think should get a decent amount of credit for a number of government measures, especially if the economy does get back on a firm footing.
Same as Steve Webb, who has been responsible for a lot of the work on overhauling the pension system.
Sure you can argue that Alexander is an position where he can directly impact a lot more decision making, but has Cable has basically nothing to show.
Why would the Lib Dems want to renounce the unqualified success achieved by Osborne and Alexander in favour of discredited Krugmanite stimulus economics advocated by Cable?
@Avery on Ukraine
Agree with all that apart from
"But you are right about both the West's response and Putin's immediate intentions. There will now be a tense and uneasy stand off allowing the bear a short slumber. But the risks of it awaking are clear to all."
Not sure it's clear to all (unless they want a war).
And he is old.
But he also sounded and looked very, very old. I think he has found the rigours of cabinet government quite hard at his age and he has no doubt found some of the compromising hard as well.
I am trying not to be too biased by the fact I always thought Vince was seriously over rated but I think his time has gone. Alexander would be much better. In fact I really wish he was a tory. He would easily have fitted into the pre Thatcher one nation tories as a wet. It is sad they have moved so far from such a position.
Morris Dancer in the previous thread asked if draws were available in Diplomacy and of course they are, normally. Not in a Death Match though. The PB Diplomacy Death Match is now open for contestants (go to PlayDiplomacy.com and under "join Game" search for "Death Match" an you will find it - the password is "cats&kittens").
Be warned though this is intended to be a no holds barred, knock em down and drag em out, no quarter asked or given fight to the death - or victory. There can only be one victor, alliance victories and draws are not permitted . Do you have the mix of cunning, skill and the ability to suck up to people you intend to destroy? Well now is your chance to prove it and win the PB Knife in the Back Trophy.
P.S. Due to the lunacies of Windows 8 Email system I have lost the details of those that has previously expressed an interest in this project. Sorry.
P.P.S. The capacity for insider knowledge and fixing of results in this game is going to be enormous, betting on it is not for the feint-hearted.
Is it something to do with Barcharts?
Quite, but I'd also have a sharply reduced majority as a nailed on certainty.
Same goes for Ed Davey in Kingston and Surbiton. Retain, but with a bloody nose.
I agreed that was probably correct provided there was no attempt by either side to secure a major advantage in the interim.
What we'll probably see is localised internal conflict with minor incursions from Russia; statements from Kiev that its territory has been violated; more promises of EU resolve and support for the Ukraine; and two more apparatchiks added to the US naughty step each time it happens.
The bear won't be disturbed from its sleep while all this goes on.
I don;t know Sheffield at all I'm afraid, but if I was to hazard a guess I'd say same sort of thing. Hold with reduced majority.
If one of the three was vulnerable I would say maybe Davey, but I think they will all get through.
AB & public sector C1:
cosmopolitan critics, comfortable nostalgia, optimistic contentment
C2 & private sector C1:
calm persistence
DE:
hard pressed anxiety & long-term despair
Cable has the air of a traditional bank manager of old. Someone who you would trust with your money and most unlikely to swan off and blow it all on a Lamborghini.
I've got 24.0 on Villa to win.
The almost total complacency of the anti-independence campaign has lead to you lot focussing far too much on core supporters, instead of reaching out to the persuadable waverers in the middle, ie. the people who will decide the actual outcome.
Yes Scotland speaks to these people constantly. In fact, we almost totally ignore our core supporters, as they will vote Yes anyway, come hell or high water.
I'm astonished that BT have been allowed to be so blatantly incompetent. Have none of the bright sparks in the Unionist camp noticed how useless they are? Nobody ever wins an election by appealing to their core vote.
He is completely signed up to the need to reduce the deficit as set out in the red book but he is not in agreement as to how. So we would have someone on top of the numbers agreeing the deficit reductions were essential and making it clear that this is going to require increased taxes on the better off. Not to increase or improve spending but to keep what we have and simply moderate the level of cuts required, especially on the poor.
So Balls would have some horrendous choices. He either admits that there is no money (without chunky tax increases) to reverse any existing cuts or planned future cuts and gets crucified on every unfunded promise they make in new services or benefits or has to seek to outbid the Lib Dems in the taxes they would increase. I am sure that is not the game plan at all.
Osborne would net get off Scot free either but he has a philosophical and economic position that there comes a point when increased taxes are counter productive and simply reduce the size of the cake. It looks as if he will have the numbers to back that up on the 45p rate (although you can argue about that all day long). Balls is missing such a philosophy or coherent position: he just wants to make it up.
Is that the same trusty old bank manager who would happily boot some old dear out of the family home she's had for decades in Twickenham because she can't pay the mansion tax?
The tories should be attacking big liberal beasts like Cable and Davey hard in 2015. Their records in government are high profile and well known. Are they really that popular in leafy south west London constituencies?
Whether Scottish Labour's mis-step on devolving income tax was a muddle or an implosion, its opponents have a ready-made weapon to attack its relaunch http://www.theguardian.com/politics/scottish-independence-blog/2014/mar/23/scottish-independence-labour-incometax
This compares with Ladbrokes' current odds of 4/1, implying that the SNP have only a 20% chance.
PfP taps his nose ...... this price looks way too big, but DYOR!
But if it is applied then what's good for the Bolsover goose is good for the Twickenham gander.
BBC Documentary is worth watching for those of us old enough to remember - and probably an eye-opener for those not:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03yg3yn/arena-whatever-happened-to-spitting-image
The almost total complacency of the anti-independence campaign has lead to you lot focussing far too much on core supporters, instead of reaching out to the persuadable waverers in the middle, ie. the people who will decide the actual outcome.
Yes Scotland speaks to these people constantly. In fact, we almost totally ignore our core supporters, as they will vote Yes anyway, come hell or high water.
I'm astonished that BT have been allowed to be so blatantly incompetent. Have none of the bright sparks in the Unionist camp noticed how useless they are? Nobody ever wins an election by appealing to their core vote.
Bright sparks and unionists are mutually exclusive. It is arrogance and stupidity that will be their downfall.
Just what we needed!
Oh well, its not like the two Eds have anything else to panic about......
Three times is enemy action and all that.
kle4, don't be so sensitivie I was talking about the unionist campaigns and the donkeys that are running them. However it does amaze me that intelligent people are happy to put these people into positions of power.
And I think you'll find Vince's 'best Chancellor' rating has pretty much halved (24>13) since the last GE.
I agree with OGH, a pleasant departure from the norm on the site's tenth birthday!
Oooppps ....
Fixed it for you.
Having Alexander out there will reinforce Lab -LD switchers whereas Cable could get the soft left back onside.
I'm not sensitive - I just think the remark needed clarifying due to its unintended implications, and I did think it unintended. You would surely not deny the Yes side would not get their backs up in the face of such a generalization, given they are the subject of them all the time.