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Voters says Europe is better than the UK – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Carnyx said:

    boulay said:

    Carnyx said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    LOL and this "knowledge" of Europe is based on what ?

    Brexit.

    See the poll, it’s no coincidence that things have become shitter in the NHS since we Brexited.

    The voters can see things with their own eyes.
    You'll have to troll better than that.

    Brexit happened because Cameron was outplayed by Farage, Osborne outwitted by a bus and Anna Soubry outcharmed by Lee Anderson.
    Why don't people who wanted and got Brexit ever say it happened because the case for it was compelling and it deservedly prevailed in an intensely fought, free and fair public vote?

    Always this "beaten by a bus" and "the Remain campaign was shite" type snark. It's like they deep down know it was a mistake and done for all the wrong reasons.
    Where is your patience man? It was clearly explained that the Brexit dividends will start to flow in about 2085. Have faith.
    Like somebody famous (Mao?) said when asked what he thought about the French revolution ... too early to tell.
    He might turn out to be right on that.
    Yes, Macron looks to be between la rock and la hard place. He needs to find a way to placate the sans culottes.
    Got a weird feeling Macron might enjoy being between The Rock and a Hard Place
    Macron was arguably the original populist with his centrist papa En Marche.
    Perhaps the original of this wave. I'm sure he saw his programme as something unique. Perhaps it was slightly. France would do well to not throw him off a cliff. (I know windows are all the rage in Putin-ville, but I'm a traditionalist).
    Macron can't run for a third term anymore than Trump can now
    They don't have history like we do old boy. They tore it up - thank god we kept ours - Alfred and the cakes.
    That was English history. Torn up by William the Bastard.
    Who was French, like most of the English [sic] ruling class he put into place.
    He wasn't French, he was a Norman.
    Born in France, spoke French, but not French because of his ancestry?
    Normandy wasn’t part of France at the time, a separate Duchy, spoke Norman French, a dialect. So like saying someone Australian or Canadian in 1900 was British.
    But that was exactly the case in 1900. They *were* British. They could go straight into the British Army, for instance, if they turned up in the UK. Just been reading the biography of a Sopwith Camel pilot who was from South Africa. Signed up down south and was put on the steamer to basic flying training in the UK.
    Doesn't it depend on the place? In 1900, South African was a series of colonies, such as the Cape Colony and Natal.

    By contrast, Canada was a Dominion (and New Zealand and Australia were on that path too). Canada became de facto an independent country sharing a head of State with the UK with the passing of the British North America Act in 1867.
    Read the poetry of the Boer War era.

    From the Arctic shores of the Yukon to the depth of the Torrid zone,
    Wherever we are, however far, we are British! Fibre and bone.
    Well yes, that's what I said - South Africa was definitely not a Dominion which its own national identity, while Canada very definitely was.

    Australia and New Zealand were somewhere in between.
    It's a pity that Canada, New Zealand, and Australia were not just federated with the UK.
    Da Greater Anglospheric Federation:

    USA and territories
    Canadia
    UK and dependencies and territories
    Ireland
    Australia and territories
    NZ and territories
    The remaining Commonwealth Realms
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Carnyx said:

    boulay said:

    Carnyx said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    LOL and this "knowledge" of Europe is based on what ?

    Brexit.

    See the poll, it’s no coincidence that things have become shitter in the NHS since we Brexited.

    The voters can see things with their own eyes.
    You'll have to troll better than that.

    Brexit happened because Cameron was outplayed by Farage, Osborne outwitted by a bus and Anna Soubry outcharmed by Lee Anderson.
    Why don't people who wanted and got Brexit ever say it happened because the case for it was compelling and it deservedly prevailed in an intensely fought, free and fair public vote?

    Always this "beaten by a bus" and "the Remain campaign was shite" type snark. It's like they deep down know it was a mistake and done for all the wrong reasons.
    Where is your patience man? It was clearly explained that the Brexit dividends will start to flow in about 2085. Have faith.
    Like somebody famous (Mao?) said when asked what he thought about the French revolution ... too early to tell.
    He might turn out to be right on that.
    Yes, Macron looks to be between la rock and la hard place. He needs to find a way to placate the sans culottes.
    Got a weird feeling Macron might enjoy being between The Rock and a Hard Place
    Macron was arguably the original populist with his centrist papa En Marche.
    Perhaps the original of this wave. I'm sure he saw his programme as something unique. Perhaps it was slightly. France would do well to not throw him off a cliff. (I know windows are all the rage in Putin-ville, but I'm a traditionalist).
    Macron can't run for a third term anymore than Trump can now
    They don't have history like we do old boy. They tore it up - thank god we kept ours - Alfred and the cakes.
    That was English history. Torn up by William the Bastard.
    Who was French, like most of the English [sic] ruling class he put into place.
    He wasn't French, he was a Norman.
    Born in France, spoke French, but not French because of his ancestry?
    Normandy wasn’t part of France at the time, a separate Duchy, spoke Norman French, a dialect. So like saying someone Australian or Canadian in 1900 was British.
    But that was exactly the case in 1900. They *were* British. They could go straight into the British Army, for instance, if they turned up in the UK. Just been reading the biography of a Sopwith Camel pilot who was from South Africa. Signed up down south and was put on the steamer to basic flying training in the UK.
    Doesn't it depend on the place? In 1900, South African was a series of colonies, such as the Cape Colony and Natal.

    By contrast, Canada was a Dominion (and New Zealand and Australia were on that path too). Canada became de facto an independent country sharing a head of State with the UK with the passing of the British North America Act in 1867.
    Read the poetry of the Boer War era.

    From the Arctic shores of the Yukon to the depth of the Torrid zone,
    Wherever we are, however far, we are British! Fibre and bone.
    Well yes, that's what I said - South Africa was definitely not a Dominion which its own national identity, while Canada very definitely was.

    Australia and New Zealand were somewhere in between.
    It's a pity that Canada, New Zealand, and Australia were not just federated with the UK.
    Da Greater Anglospheric Federation:

    USA and territories
    Canadia
    UK and dependencies and territories
    Ireland
    Australia and territories
    NZ and territories
    The remaining Commonwealth Realms
    Malta once voted, in a referendum, to join the UK.
  • Thirteen more hours at work today. So, forty-nine and a half in the last four days; six days more work until a day off

    Can't wait to see the size of the pile of peanuts they pay me next week
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    Farage responds to Badenoch’s “red meat” comment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1867673032913039788

    This is Kemi’s idea of red meat. More uncontrolled immigration.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,744

    Thirteen more hours at work today. So, forty-nine and a half in the last four days; six days more work until a day off

    Can't wait to see the size of the pile of peanuts they pay me next week

    Grim! What do you do?
  • Thirteen more hours at work today. So, forty-nine and a half in the last four days; six days more work until a day off

    Can't wait to see the size of the pile of peanuts they pay me next week

    Grim! What do you do?
    Postie
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,744

    Thirteen more hours at work today. So, forty-nine and a half in the last four days; six days more work until a day off

    Can't wait to see the size of the pile of peanuts they pay me next week

    Grim! What do you do?
    Postie
    Ah, I see. Yes, this time of the year must particularly suck...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Black Doves is a Christmas series in a die hard sort of way
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,521

    The man is a walking PR disaster for the Royal family......

    Chinese money given to the Duke of York is being investigated by the security services, The Telegraph can disclose. Prince Andrew’s business venture is understood to have received money from Chinese donors with links to an alleged Communist party spy.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2024/12/13/prince-andrew-pictured-meeting-chinese-spy-banned-uk/

    That's why I think Prince Andrew should be hanged, by virtue of the Treason Act 1351.
  • Farage responds to Badenoch’s “red meat” comment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1867673032913039788

    This is Kemi’s idea of red meat. More uncontrolled immigration.

    Is this going to turn into one of those Hallmark Christmas Movies where Kemi and Nigel eventually realise that they don't need foreigners coming here, they just need each other?
  • Thirteen more hours at work today. So, forty-nine and a half in the last four days; six days more work until a day off

    Can't wait to see the size of the pile of peanuts they pay me next week

    Grim! What do you do?
    Postie
    Ah, I see. Yes, this time of the year must particularly suck...
    At least tips have started this week!

    Two blues, two browns and two purples so far..
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835

    Thirteen more hours at work today. So, forty-nine and a half in the last four days; six days more work until a day off

    Can't wait to see the size of the pile of peanuts they pay me next week

    Grim! What do you do?
    Postie
    Ah, I see. Yes, this time of the year must particularly suck...
    At least tips have started this week!

    Two blues, two browns and two purples so far..
    You'll need a card machine soon...
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,316
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Carnyx said:

    boulay said:

    Carnyx said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    LOL and this "knowledge" of Europe is based on what ?

    Brexit.

    See the poll, it’s no coincidence that things have become shitter in the NHS since we Brexited.

    The voters can see things with their own eyes.
    You'll have to troll better than that.

    Brexit happened because Cameron was outplayed by Farage, Osborne outwitted by a bus and Anna Soubry outcharmed by Lee Anderson.
    Why don't people who wanted and got Brexit ever say it happened because the case for it was compelling and it deservedly prevailed in an intensely fought, free and fair public vote?

    Always this "beaten by a bus" and "the Remain campaign was shite" type snark. It's like they deep down know it was a mistake and done for all the wrong reasons.
    Where is your patience man? It was clearly explained that the Brexit dividends will start to flow in about 2085. Have faith.
    Like somebody famous (Mao?) said when asked what he thought about the French revolution ... too early to tell.
    He might turn out to be right on that.
    Yes, Macron looks to be between la rock and la hard place. He needs to find a way to placate the sans culottes.
    Got a weird feeling Macron might enjoy being between The Rock and a Hard Place
    Macron was arguably the original populist with his centrist papa En Marche.
    Perhaps the original of this wave. I'm sure he saw his programme as something unique. Perhaps it was slightly. France would do well to not throw him off a cliff. (I know windows are all the rage in Putin-ville, but I'm a traditionalist).
    Macron can't run for a third term anymore than Trump can now
    They don't have history like we do old boy. They tore it up - thank god we kept ours - Alfred and the cakes.
    That was English history. Torn up by William the Bastard.
    Who was French, like most of the English [sic] ruling class he put into place.
    He wasn't French, he was a Norman.
    Born in France, spoke French, but not French because of his ancestry?
    Normandy wasn’t part of France at the time, a separate Duchy, spoke Norman French, a dialect. So like saying someone Australian or Canadian in 1900 was British.
    But that was exactly the case in 1900. They *were* British. They could go straight into the British Army, for instance, if they turned up in the UK. Just been reading the biography of a Sopwith Camel pilot who was from South Africa. Signed up down south and was put on the steamer to basic flying training in the UK.
    Doesn't it depend on the place? In 1900, South African was a series of colonies, such as the Cape Colony and Natal.

    By contrast, Canada was a Dominion (and New Zealand and Australia were on that path too). Canada became de facto an independent country sharing a head of State with the UK with the passing of the British North America Act in 1867.
    Read the poetry of the Boer War era.

    From the Arctic shores of the Yukon to the depth of the Torrid zone,
    Wherever we are, however far, we are British! Fibre and bone.
    Well yes, that's what I said - South Africa was definitely not a Dominion which its own national identity, while Canada very definitely was.

    Australia and New Zealand were somewhere in between.
    That's written by a Canadian, hence the reference to the Yukon. The Imperial Federation movement was quite strong in Canada around that time too.
    Ah, I missed that.

    Nevertheless: while I'm sure there were many people in Canada who considered themselves subjects of the British Crown above all else (the Imperial Federation Movement), it also had its own Parliament, and sent athletes to the 1900 Paris Olympics independent from Britain.
    The rot set in when they started driving on the right and minting 'dollars'.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,632

    Farage responds to Badenoch’s “red meat” comment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1867673032913039788

    This is Kemi’s idea of red meat. More uncontrolled immigration.

    The battle for the silver medal is getting feisty.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,066

    The European Union has set the price for a post-Brexit trade deal in leaked negotiating papers that reveal an expectation of concessions from Sir Keir Starmer.

    According to a classified document seen by The Telegraph, the EU will demand Britain surrenders to free movement for students and commits to unchanged fishing rights for its trawlers.

    An EU official with knowledge of the document said: “If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu … and Keir’s turkey is stuffed.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/12/13/leaked-negotiating-papers-reveal-eu-post-brexit-price/

    Do people generally object to foreign students coming and paying into Uni bank accounts then? And the deal is unchanged for fishing? Sounds fine to me.
    Probably not fine for the Eurosceptic press though
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213
    kinabalu said:

    Farage responds to Badenoch’s “red meat” comment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1867673032913039788

    This is Kemi’s idea of red meat. More uncontrolled immigration.

    The battle for the silver medal is getting feisty.
    We are plausibly in a similar polling situation to 1980-81, when the SDP were slowly creeping up on Labour, except the major party share starts from a much lower base now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172

    Black Doves is a Christmas series in a die hard sort of way

    Preposterous, but very well acted.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    Light Shop on Disney is a creepy slow burn Korean ghost story if you're into that sort of thing.

    Korean ghost mythology is quite something.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835
    edited December 13
    CatMan said:

    The European Union has set the price for a post-Brexit trade deal in leaked negotiating papers that reveal an expectation of concessions from Sir Keir Starmer.

    According to a classified document seen by The Telegraph, the EU will demand Britain surrenders to free movement for students and commits to unchanged fishing rights for its trawlers.

    An EU official with knowledge of the document said: “If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu … and Keir’s turkey is stuffed.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/12/13/leaked-negotiating-papers-reveal-eu-post-brexit-price/

    Do people generally object to foreign students coming and paying into Uni bank accounts then? And the deal is unchanged for fishing? Sounds fine to me.
    Probably not fine for the Eurosceptic press though
    EU students can already come here, and stay and work for two years after graduation, just like anyone else. So presumably they want movement on fees, or on the two years.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268

    Farage responds to Badenoch’s “red meat” comment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1867673032913039788

    This is Kemi’s idea of red meat. More uncontrolled immigration.

    Is this going to turn into one of those Hallmark Christmas Movies where Kemi and Nigel eventually realise that they don't need foreigners coming here, they just need each other?
    They could be at it all night.

    https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/1867681459248775290

    I was calling for an Australian-style points system that prioritised highly skilled researchers.

    While Nigel was arguing for unlimited foreign student visas…
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835

    Farage responds to Badenoch’s “red meat” comment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1867673032913039788

    This is Kemi’s idea of red meat. More uncontrolled immigration.

    Is this going to turn into one of those Hallmark Christmas Movies where Kemi and Nigel eventually realise that they don't need foreigners coming here, they just need each other?
    They could be at it all night.

    https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/1867681459248775290

    I was calling for an Australian-style points system that prioritised highly skilled researchers.

    While Nigel was arguing for unlimited foreign student visas…
    Disingenuous from Kemi. Two different points, except with respect to overall numbers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,608
    carnforth said:

    Farage responds to Badenoch’s “red meat” comment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1867673032913039788

    This is Kemi’s idea of red meat. More uncontrolled immigration.

    Is this going to turn into one of those Hallmark Christmas Movies where Kemi and Nigel eventually realise that they don't need foreigners coming here, they just need each other?
    They could be at it all night.

    https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/1867681459248775290

    I was calling for an Australian-style points system that prioritised highly skilled researchers.

    While Nigel was arguing for unlimited foreign student visas…
    Disingenuous from Kemi. Two different points, except with respect to overall numbers.
    A politician being disingenuous. Well I never.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835
    rcs1000 said:

    carnforth said:

    Farage responds to Badenoch’s “red meat” comment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1867673032913039788

    This is Kemi’s idea of red meat. More uncontrolled immigration.

    Is this going to turn into one of those Hallmark Christmas Movies where Kemi and Nigel eventually realise that they don't need foreigners coming here, they just need each other?
    They could be at it all night.

    https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/1867681459248775290

    I was calling for an Australian-style points system that prioritised highly skilled researchers.

    While Nigel was arguing for unlimited foreign student visas…
    Disingenuous from Kemi. Two different points, except with respect to overall numbers.
    A politician being disingenuous. Well I never.
    After years of carrying water for the tories I'm rather enjoying criticising them. And next time they're in power, I'll carry a little less.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,521
    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    carnforth said:

    Farage responds to Badenoch’s “red meat” comment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1867673032913039788

    This is Kemi’s idea of red meat. More uncontrolled immigration.

    Is this going to turn into one of those Hallmark Christmas Movies where Kemi and Nigel eventually realise that they don't need foreigners coming here, they just need each other?
    They could be at it all night.

    https://x.com/kemibadenoch/status/1867681459248775290

    I was calling for an Australian-style points system that prioritised highly skilled researchers.

    While Nigel was arguing for unlimited foreign student visas…
    Disingenuous from Kemi. Two different points, except with respect to overall numbers.
    A politician being disingenuous. Well I never.
    After years of carrying water for the tories I'm rather enjoying criticising them. And next time they're in power, I'll carry a little less.
    It's a matter of complete indifference to me, whether the Conservatives or Reform end up on top.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,066
    Which idiot told New Zealand that they should bat? Grrrrrrrrrrrrr
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,987
    kinabalu said:

    Farage responds to Badenoch’s “red meat” comment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1867673032913039788

    This is Kemi’s idea of red meat. More uncontrolled immigration.

    The battle for the silver medal is getting feisty.
    Much though I disagreed with a lot of what she did - Margaret Thatcher would have batted Farage out of the ballpark with a flick of a puzzled glance.

    It's a bit saddening that the best this (needed) wing of UK politics has to offer us it Farage vs. Kemi.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited December 13
    CatMan said:

    Which idiot told New Zealand that they should bat? Grrrrrrrrrrrrr

    5D chess from Baz....drop Woakes, bring in an extra shit bowler who can't bat and put England batsman under pressure to test them out.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    edited December 13
    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Farage responds to Badenoch’s “red meat” comment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1867673032913039788

    This is Kemi’s idea of red meat. More uncontrolled immigration.

    The battle for the silver medal is getting feisty.
    We are plausibly in a similar polling situation to 1980-81, when the SDP were slowly creeping up on Labour, except the major party share starts from a much lower base now.
    It’s similar to what I know of the early eighties in that Lab and SDP were largely battling for the same voters, the voters were not minded to help the other party out if their own candidate running poor third, but instead spoil it for the rival. In that sense it feels the same to me - Tory and Reform not entirely but are largely fishing in same pool for voters, and last election Reform voters did not help Con nor Con voters help Reform get over the line in many seats.

    On the other hand other right leaning pollsters on PB see it completely differently and their view needs to be listened to and respected, HY is talking about Con and Reform able to form a coalition government, others paint it that Reform’s rise is a nightmare for Labour now more than for Conservatives.

    That thinking would be on basis of a Labour government so unpopular that when the GE came voters wouldn’t still stick with devil they know out of fear of Con+Reform coalition? So many times in the past voters have given devil they know another chance and more time, havn’t they, seems to be the way GE terms work?

    Personally I still feel this is the very start of what will become increasingly bitter deathmatch, Con v Ref - where one has to kill the other off and feast on the corpse to get into power. It’s something Bobby J said: Reform only doing well because Conservative performance was rubbish, better Conservative performance kills off Reform - that’s the way to do it.

    But how to demonstrate “strong performance” whilst in opposition, not in government, though?

    The last parliament of unConservative government by The Conservatives, may have opened a box and let something out. 🫣
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213

    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Farage responds to Badenoch’s “red meat” comment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1867673032913039788

    This is Kemi’s idea of red meat. More uncontrolled immigration.

    The battle for the silver medal is getting feisty.
    We are plausibly in a similar polling situation to 1980-81, when the SDP were slowly creeping up on Labour, except the major party share starts from a much lower base now.
    It’s similar to what I know of the early eighties in that Lab and SDP were largely battling for the same voters, the voters were not minded to help the other party out if their own candidate running poor third, but instead spoil it for the rival. In that sense it feels the same to me - Tory and Reform not entirely but are largely fishing in same pool for voters, and last election Reform voters did not help Con nor Con voters help Reform get over the line in many seats.

    On the other hand other right leaning pollsters on PB see it completely differently and their view needs to be listened to and respected, HY is talking about Con and Reform able to form a coalition government, others paint it that Reform’s rise is a nightmare for Labour now more than for Conservatives.

    That thinking would be on basis of a Labour government so unpopular that when the GE came voters wouldn’t still stick with devil they know out of fear of Con+Reform coalition? So many times in the past voters have given devil they know another chance and more time, havn’t they, seems to be the way GE terms work?

    Personally I still feel this is the very start of what will become increasingly bitter deathmatch, CIN v Ref - where one has to kill the other off and feast on the corpse to get into power. It’s something Bobby J said: Reform only doing well because Conservative performance was rubbish, better Conservative performance kills off Reform - that’s the way to do it.

    But how to demonstrate “strong performance” whilst in opposition, not in government, though?

    The last parliament of unConservative government by The Conservatives, may have opened a box and let something out. 🫣
    For me, the huge unexplained duck that hasn’t quacked in this parliament so far is the greens. I expected them to. Blank canvas, project all your idealistic lefty / eco dreams in them - to soar. But they haven’t. Perhaps the seeming post-Ukraine anti environmental backlash is holding them back.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    carnforth said:

    South Hanningfield, Stock and Margaretting (Chelmsford) council by-election result:

    CON: 81.3% (+7.8)
    GRN: 7.3% (+7.3)
    LDEM: 6.8% (-9.5)
    LAB: 4.7% (-5.6)

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~23% (-7)

    Wonder what it would have been with Reform?

    What did the Tories get with pensioners in this council seat? Around 95% probably.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Farage responds to Badenoch’s “red meat” comment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1867673032913039788

    This is Kemi’s idea of red meat. More uncontrolled immigration.

    The battle for the silver medal is getting feisty.
    We are plausibly in a similar polling situation to 1980-81, when the SDP were slowly creeping up on Labour, except the major party share starts from a much lower base now.
    It’s similar to what I know of the early eighties in that Lab and SDP were largely battling for the same voters, the voters were not minded to help the other party out if their own candidate running poor third, but instead spoil it for the rival. In that sense it feels the same to me - Tory and Reform not entirely but are largely fishing in same pool for voters, and last election Reform voters did not help Con nor Con voters help Reform get over the line in many seats.

    On the other hand other right leaning pollsters on PB see it completely differently and their view needs to be listened to and respected, HY is talking about Con and Reform able to form a coalition government, others paint it that Reform’s rise is a nightmare for Labour now more than for Conservatives.

    That thinking would be on basis of a Labour government so unpopular that when the GE came voters wouldn’t still stick with devil they know out of fear of Con+Reform coalition? So many times in the past voters have given devil they know another chance and more time, havn’t they, seems to be the way GE terms work?

    Personally I still feel this is the very start of what will become increasingly bitter deathmatch, CIN v Ref - where one has to kill the other off and feast on the corpse to get into power. It’s something Bobby J said: Reform only doing well because Conservative performance was rubbish, better Conservative performance kills off Reform - that’s the way to do it.

    But how to demonstrate “strong performance” whilst in opposition, not in government, though?

    The last parliament of unConservative government by The Conservatives, may have opened a box and let something out. 🫣
    For me, the huge unexplained duck that hasn’t quacked in this parliament so far is the greens. I expected them to. Blank canvas, project all your idealistic lefty / eco dreams in them - to soar. But they haven’t. Perhaps the seeming post-Ukraine anti environmental backlash is holding them back.

    Enthusiasm for the Green agenda seems to be in retreat - opponents of the Green agenda have spent years attaching price tags to every bit of it, and at same time in those same years everyone’s incomes have shrunk. Right now today there are still many people feeling on the breadline, and with mortgage deals coming to a close knowing they can’t escape a steep rise on it. 😕
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Farage responds to Badenoch’s “red meat” comment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1867673032913039788

    This is Kemi’s idea of red meat. More uncontrolled immigration.

    The battle for the silver medal is getting feisty.
    We are plausibly in a similar polling situation to 1980-81, when the SDP were slowly creeping up on Labour, except the major party share starts from a much lower base now.
    It’s similar to what I know of the early eighties in that Lab and SDP were largely battling for the same voters, the voters were not minded to help the other party out if their own candidate running poor third, but instead spoil it for the rival. In that sense it feels the same to me - Tory and Reform not entirely but are largely fishing in same pool for voters, and last election Reform voters did not help Con nor Con voters help Reform get over the line in many seats.

    On the other hand other right leaning pollsters on PB see it completely differently and their view needs to be listened to and respected, HY is talking about Con and Reform able to form a coalition government, others paint it that Reform’s rise is a nightmare for Labour now more than for Conservatives.

    That thinking would be on basis of a Labour government so unpopular that when the GE came voters wouldn’t still stick with devil they know out of fear of Con+Reform coalition? So many times in the past voters have given devil they know another chance and more time, havn’t they, seems to be the way GE terms work?

    Personally I still feel this is the very start of what will become increasingly bitter deathmatch, CIN v Ref - where one has to kill the other off and feast on the corpse to get into power. It’s something Bobby J said: Reform only doing well because Conservative performance was rubbish, better Conservative performance kills off Reform - that’s the way to do it.

    But how to demonstrate “strong performance” whilst in opposition, not in government, though?

    The last parliament of unConservative government by The Conservatives, may have opened a box and let something out. 🫣
    For me, the huge unexplained duck that hasn’t quacked in this parliament so far is the greens. I expected them to. Blank canvas, project all your idealistic lefty / eco dreams in them - to soar. But they haven’t. Perhaps the seeming post-Ukraine anti environmental backlash is holding them back.

    Enthusiasm for the Green agenda seems to be in retreat - opponents of the Green agenda have spent years attaching price tags to every bit of it, and at same time in those same years everyone’s incomes have shrunk. Right now today there are still many people feeling on the breadline, and with mortgage deals coming to a close knowing they can’t escape a steep rise on it. 😕
    "For me, the huge unexplained duck that hasn’t quacked in this parliament so far is the greens. "

    This is a tale of media.

    5 Reform MPs talking endless bollx about bringing back proper gravy and people wearing ties at the opera on tiktok and other social media plus the BBC's obsession with making Farage PM vs 4 Green MPs getting on with their jobs and none of them being particularly stand-out characters.

    Deeply depressing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    Watched Conclave this evening which was brilliant, with an interesting twist at the end
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    edited December 13
    You Only Live Twice on ITV. Watching it is like seeing what the future was supposed to be like.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864

    carnforth said:

    South Hanningfield, Stock and Margaretting (Chelmsford) council by-election result:

    CON: 81.3% (+7.8)
    GRN: 7.3% (+7.3)
    LDEM: 6.8% (-9.5)
    LAB: 4.7% (-5.6)

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~23% (-7)

    Wonder what it would have been with Reform?

    This may help

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1867558160825036962?t=eoNdtJ56B7es9K_i2Vtidw&s=19
    Yes as I had also posted earlier the Tories held the county seat by election which was also held yesterday by about 300 votes over Reform with Labour collapsing to fifth
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864

    The man is a walking PR disaster for the Royal family......

    Chinese money given to the Duke of York is being investigated by the security services, The Telegraph can disclose. Prince Andrew’s business venture is understood to have received money from Chinese donors with links to an alleged Communist party spy.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2024/12/13/prince-andrew-pictured-meeting-chinese-spy-banned-uk/

    Andrew is no longer a working royal nor even in the top five in line to the throne
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,835
    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    South Hanningfield, Stock and Margaretting (Chelmsford) council by-election result:

    CON: 81.3% (+7.8)
    GRN: 7.3% (+7.3)
    LDEM: 6.8% (-9.5)
    LAB: 4.7% (-5.6)

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~23% (-7)

    Wonder what it would have been with Reform?

    What did the Tories get with pensioners in this council seat? Around 95% probably.
    Do we have data on who votes in a 23% turnout local? Other than the results, obviously.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    HYUFD said:

    Watched Conclave this evening which was brilliant, with an interesting twist at the end

    I thought the final twist was a bit much after everything else.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    kinabalu said:

    Farage responds to Badenoch’s “red meat” comment:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1867673032913039788

    This is Kemi’s idea of red meat. More uncontrolled immigration.

    The battle for the silver medal is getting feisty.
    Silver medal????
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    edited December 13

    CatMan said:

    Which idiot told New Zealand that they should bat? Grrrrrrrrrrrrr

    5D chess from Baz....drop Woakes, bring in an extra shit bowler who can't bat and put England batsman under pressure to test them out.
    Maybe, but you are relentlessly negative about England. Your endless “good job England bat deep” schtick rather lost its vim when we won both tests easily.

    That said, we do have a terrible record in dead rubbers so will probably lose this one.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    "Former Syrian prison official arrested in California, now charged with torture

    Samir Ousman al-Sheikh, 72, who oversaw Syria's infamous Adra Prison from 2005 to 2008, was detained in July at on charges of immigration fraud, specifically that he denied on US visa and citizenship applications having ever persecuted anyone in Syria."

    https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/12/13/former-syrian-official-arrested-in-california-who-oversaw-prison-charged-with-torture_6736017_4.html
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    HYUFD said:

    The man is a walking PR disaster for the Royal family......

    Chinese money given to the Duke of York is being investigated by the security services, The Telegraph can disclose. Prince Andrew’s business venture is understood to have received money from Chinese donors with links to an alleged Communist party spy.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2024/12/13/prince-andrew-pictured-meeting-chinese-spy-banned-uk/

    Andrew is no longer a working royal nor even in the top five in line to the throne
    The trouble with the monarchy is you don’t get to choose. Had Andy been born before Chas, he’d have been king… Genetic lottery.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    Lee Anderson: "I stay in a hotel cos it saves the taxpayer... plus I don't have to wash me own towels"

    https://x.com/GBNEWS/status/1867648504140599740
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030

    HYUFD said:

    The man is a walking PR disaster for the Royal family......

    Chinese money given to the Duke of York is being investigated by the security services, The Telegraph can disclose. Prince Andrew’s business venture is understood to have received money from Chinese donors with links to an alleged Communist party spy.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2024/12/13/prince-andrew-pictured-meeting-chinese-spy-banned-uk/

    Andrew is no longer a working royal nor even in the top five in line to the throne
    The trouble with the monarchy is you don’t get to choose. Had Andy been born before Chas, he’d have been king… Genetic lottery.
    If he had been first in line I doubt his upbringing would have been the same, nor his duties earlier in his life.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    @Leon

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    Eliminating daylight savings time is precisely what true time advocates such as myself support. We should just stay on the correct time - GMT - all year round.

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/1867698948464636084
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945

    @Leon

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    Eliminating daylight savings time is precisely what true time advocates such as myself support. We should just stay on the correct time - GMT - all year round.

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/1867698948464636084

    This is what Peter Hitchens believes.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    edited December 14
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The man is a walking PR disaster for the Royal family......

    Chinese money given to the Duke of York is being investigated by the security services, The Telegraph can disclose. Prince Andrew’s business venture is understood to have received money from Chinese donors with links to an alleged Communist party spy.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2024/12/13/prince-andrew-pictured-meeting-chinese-spy-banned-uk/

    Andrew is no longer a working royal nor even in the top five in line to the throne
    The trouble with the monarchy is you don’t get to choose. Had Andy been born before Chas, he’d have been king… Genetic lottery.
    If he had been first in line I doubt his upbringing would have been the same, nor his duties earlier in his life.
    Lol. Like there have never been dodgy monarchs! Sorry, you get what you are given. That’s the way the system works. Yep, it’s a bit silly, but there it is.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    @Leon

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    Eliminating daylight savings time is precisely what true time advocates such as myself support. We should just stay on the correct time - GMT - all year round.

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/1867698948464636084

    Au contraire. Double BST would be better in summer. Not much point it getting light at 4am.
  • vinovino Posts: 171
    carnforth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    South Hanningfield, Stock and Margaretting (Chelmsford) council by-election result:

    CON: 81.3% (+7.8)
    GRN: 7.3% (+7.3)
    LDEM: 6.8% (-9.5)
    LAB: 4.7% (-5.6)

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~23% (-7)

    Wonder what it would have been with Reform?

    What did the Tories get with pensioners in this council seat? Around 95% probably.
    Do we have data on who votes in a 23% turnout local? Other than the results, obviously.
    Go to Vote-2012 to Local By-Elections to Town, Parish & Community by-elections 2024 - 2025 page 20 - very interesting
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Andy_JS said:

    @Leon

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    Eliminating daylight savings time is precisely what true time advocates such as myself support. We should just stay on the correct time - GMT - all year round.

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/1867698948464636084

    This is what Peter Hitchens believes.
    The very idea that there is a “correct time” is spurious in the extreme. Do Hitchens and Lilico advocate setting the time by the sun wherever they are? That might cause a few transport problems…
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 620

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The man is a walking PR disaster for the Royal family......

    Chinese money given to the Duke of York is being investigated by the security services, The Telegraph can disclose. Prince Andrew’s business venture is understood to have received money from Chinese donors with links to an alleged Communist party spy.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2024/12/13/prince-andrew-pictured-meeting-chinese-spy-banned-uk/

    Andrew is no longer a working royal nor even in the top five in line to the throne
    The trouble with the monarchy is you don’t get to choose. Had Andy been born before Chas, he’d have been king… Genetic lottery.
    If he had been first in line I doubt his upbringing would have been the same, nor his duties earlier in his life.
    Lol. Like there have never been dodgy monarchs! Sorry, you get what you are given. That’s the way the system works. Yep, it’s a bit silly, but there it is.
    Not like Chaz is squeaky clean, taking supermarket carrier bags of cash from various dodgy chancers for his house renovation "charity". He just gets a free pass because he was PoW and now King.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114

    Andy_JS said:

    @Leon

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    Eliminating daylight savings time is precisely what true time advocates such as myself support. We should just stay on the correct time - GMT - all year round.

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/1867698948464636084

    This is what Peter Hitchens believes.
    The very idea that there is a “correct time” is spurious in the extreme. Do Hitchens and Lilico advocate setting the time by the sun wherever they are? That might cause a few transport problems…
    Lilico is a game theorist apparently - so maybe he has worked it all out.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    carnforth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    South Hanningfield, Stock and Margaretting (Chelmsford) council by-election result:

    CON: 81.3% (+7.8)
    GRN: 7.3% (+7.3)
    LDEM: 6.8% (-9.5)
    LAB: 4.7% (-5.6)

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~23% (-7)

    Wonder what it would have been with Reform?

    What did the Tories get with pensioners in this council seat? Around 95% probably.
    Do we have data on who votes in a 23% turnout local? Other than the results, obviously.
    Heavily skewed towards older voters I'd think.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited December 14

    CatMan said:

    Which idiot told New Zealand that they should bat? Grrrrrrrrrrrrr

    5D chess from Baz....drop Woakes, bring in an extra shit bowler who can't bat and put England batsman under pressure to test them out.
    Maybe, but you are relentlessly negative about England. Your endless “good job England bat deep” schtick rather lost its vim when we won both tests easily.

    That said, we do have a terrible record in dead rubbers so will probably lose this one.
    In all seriousness, I am not endless negative about England at all. Since Baz took over the approach taken maximises the abilities of the players available. The likes of Duckett have really excelled after being encouraged to play his way, and of course Brook has an incredible average, and Root is just timeless. Jamie Smith looks top draw keeper / batsman. Bethell has stepped in like he has played loads of long form cricket when he hasn't.

    But they aren't the best in the world and still susceptible to coming unstuck fast. They have to play the bazball way because only Root and occasionally Stokes can really dig in and bat for hours. Crawley and Pope are very hit and miss. Bowling remains the biggest weakness, or rather lack of variety. I like Carse, but we don't have a world class seamer like Anderson and its right arm faster side of medium fast when Wood / Archer aren't playing. And if they don't get wickets early its a slog and the frustrating bang it in for over after over approach. Young spinners have done ok so far. But it shows that they are playing Woakes despite not being good away from home and since coming back from injury has lost his pace. No Stokes and the team is quite unbalanced.

    In shorter form, I have long said that England T20 team have until the last year or so have been far ahead of the rest of the world in analytics and execution. I think with Baz getting involved they will return to that, lots of exciting players coming through like Bethell, who looked brilliant in WIs.

    ODIs, the ECB management have said it isn't a priority at all so far less effort it put into trying to do well at that.
  • vinovino Posts: 171
    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    carnforth said:

    South Hanningfield, Stock and Margaretting (Chelmsford) council by-election result:

    CON: 81.3% (+7.8)
    GRN: 7.3% (+7.3)
    LDEM: 6.8% (-9.5)
    LAB: 4.7% (-5.6)

    +/- 2023

    Estimated turnout: ~23% (-7)

    Wonder what it would have been with Reform?

    What did the Tories get with pensioners in this council seat? Around 95% probably.
    Do we have data on who votes in a 23% turnout local? Other than the results, obviously.
    Heavily skewed towards older voters I'd think.
    See my previous post
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,720

    Andy_JS said:

    @Leon

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    1h
    Eliminating daylight savings time is precisely what true time advocates such as myself support. We should just stay on the correct time - GMT - all year round.

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/1867698948464636084

    This is what Peter Hitchens believes.
    The very idea that there is a “correct time” is spurious in the extreme. Do Hitchens and Lilico advocate setting the time by the sun wherever they are? That might cause a few transport problems…
    That is why we ended up with GMT in the first place, of course.

    Oxford time being 5 minutes later than London.


    GMT all year round makes total sense though. BST is a nonsense.

    Just open everything an hour "earlier"!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934

    HYUFD said:

    Watched Conclave this evening which was brilliant, with an interesting twist at the end

    I thought the final twist was a bit much after everything else.
    Excellent film, but agree on the twist - thought they opted for "it's complicated"...

    Some awards-nods worthy performances though, including Ralph Fiennes as best actor, Isabella Rossellini best supporting actress and John Lithgow was excellent too.

    But an interesting spin around a "public" event that will by its nature be closed off to the world.
  • Life in a haunted house. We’ve had a couple of days now of stuff disappearing from under us. Including the wooden washing up brush. From out of the washing up water in the sink.

    I’m up late, wifey went up earlier. Has just come down - “you’ve left lights on in the bank” (the commercial part of the building). No, I switched everything off as I came out.

    Ok. Get my keys. Out the door, round the front, into the shop (bank). Shop is dark. In the back? lights on. In two rooms. Not next to each other. Sigh. Even if I’d left lights on I would leave that on. Switch that off. Leave that on. Switch that off.

    Mr James Shives sir. Please sod off again. And apparate our shit back to us.

    Thanks
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213
    At the risk of becoming a legendary PB laughing stock:

    Could Syria surprise on the upside?

    I keep coming back to this

    https://x.com/nrg8000/status/1866747012147982577?s=46

    Plus we’re due a geopolitical surprise. Syria not continuing to be a total clusterfuck would certainly be a surprise.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934
    Nigelb said:

    Black Doves is a Christmas series in a die hard sort of way

    Preposterous, but very well acted.
    I've just started it.

    Broken off for the night, but I could easily have continued bingeing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934

    Life in a haunted house. We’ve had a couple of days now of stuff disappearing from under us. Including the wooden washing up brush. From out of the washing up water in the sink.

    I’m up late, wifey went up earlier. Has just come down - “you’ve left lights on in the bank” (the commercial part of the building). No, I switched everything off as I came out.

    Ok. Get my keys. Out the door, round the front, into the shop (bank). Shop is dark. In the back? lights on. In two rooms. Not next to each other. Sigh. Even if I’d left lights on I would leave that on. Switch that off. Leave that on. Switch that off.

    Mr James Shives sir. Please sod off again. And apparate our shit back to us.

    Thanks

    Don't antagonise it. It might start chucking things at you.

    A solicitor friend used to put in his questions to the vendor "Is the property haunted?"
  • The UK does not have enough construction workers to build the 1.5 million homes the government keeps promising, industry leaders have warned.

    Tens of thousands of new recruits across bricklaying, groundworks and carpentry are needed to get anywhere near the target, they told the BBC. The Home Builders Federation (HBF), along with the UK's largest housebuilder Barratt Redrow said skills shortages, ageing workers and Brexit were some of the factors behind the shrinking workforce.

    But for every 10,000 new homes to be built, the sector needs about 30,000 new recruits across 12 trades, according to the HBF, the trade body for the house building industry in England and Wales.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yg1471rwpo
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    TimS said:

    At the risk of becoming a legendary PB laughing stock:

    Could Syria surprise on the upside?

    I keep coming back to this

    https://x.com/nrg8000/status/1866747012147982577?s=46

    Plus we’re due a geopolitical surprise. Syria not continuing to be a total clusterfuck would certainly be a surprise.

    2025.

    The year that stunned us all by being an amazingly positive turning point in world history.

    It could happen??
  • Two hours forward in the summer would be the best change we could make.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited December 14

    TimS said:

    At the risk of becoming a legendary PB laughing stock:

    Could Syria surprise on the upside?

    I keep coming back to this

    https://x.com/nrg8000/status/1866747012147982577?s=46

    Plus we’re due a geopolitical surprise. Syria not continuing to be a total clusterfuck would certainly be a surprise.

    2025.

    The year that stunned us all by being an amazingly positive turning point in world history.

    It could happen??
    Its a good job we have a very calm, always unflappable and diplomatic President coming into office shortly in the US...
  • Life in a haunted house. We’ve had a couple of days now of stuff disappearing from under us. Including the wooden washing up brush. From out of the washing up water in the sink.

    I’m up late, wifey went up earlier. Has just come down - “you’ve left lights on in the bank” (the commercial part of the building). No, I switched everything off as I came out.

    Ok. Get my keys. Out the door, round the front, into the shop (bank). Shop is dark. In the back? lights on. In two rooms. Not next to each other. Sigh. Even if I’d left lights on I would leave that on. Switch that off. Leave that on. Switch that off.

    Mr James Shives sir. Please sod off again. And apparate our shit back to us.

    Thanks

    Don't antagonise it. It might start chucking things at you.

    A solicitor friend used to put in his questions to the vendor "Is the property haunted?"
    The core of this building is 229 years old. It’s allowed to have a presence.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945

    Two hours forward in the summer would be the best change we could make.

    Agree with this 100%. I think Hitchens is wrong on this occasion.
  • The single best decision Labour could make is getting David M as an MP and having him take over in 2028.
  • Life in a haunted house. We’ve had a couple of days now of stuff disappearing from under us. Including the wooden washing up brush. From out of the washing up water in the sink.

    I’m up late, wifey went up earlier. Has just come down - “you’ve left lights on in the bank” (the commercial part of the building). No, I switched everything off as I came out.

    Ok. Get my keys. Out the door, round the front, into the shop (bank). Shop is dark. In the back? lights on. In two rooms. Not next to each other. Sigh. Even if I’d left lights on I would leave that on. Switch that off. Leave that on. Switch that off.

    Mr James Shives sir. Please sod off again. And apparate our shit back to us.

    Thanks

    Don't antagonise it. It might start chucking things at you.

    A solicitor friend used to put in his questions to the vendor "Is the property haunted?"
    The core of this building is 229 years old. It’s allowed to have a presence.
    Seriously though. I turned all the lights off when I left the “bank” part of the building at 18:30. In sequence. Back to front. So to find the most back and then 3rd back light on when I had to go switch them off in sequence is quite funny. Hmmm
  • Badenoch stays "stop crashing the economy".

    Leave that to us, she means.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268

    The single best decision Labour could make is getting David M as an MP and having him take over in 2028.

    One Miliband in government is one too many.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited December 14

    The single best decision Labour could make is getting David M as an MP and having him take over in 2028.

    People have short memories that he was quite shit as a minister when he was previously in government. Luckily for him last time Mandelson was about to clean up for him when he shit the bed.

    He also gets paid incredible amounts of money now (reportedly £1 million a year just for one of his jobs and that was several years ago), coming back to £100k a year and all the media attention doesn't seem likely.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    edited December 14
    edit
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645

    The single best decision Labour could make is getting David M as an MP and having him take over in 2028.

    🍌.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645

    Badenoch stays "stop crashing the economy".

    Leave that to us, she means.

    My first glance at Express, I thought it was Kamala Harris not Princess of Wales 🤦‍♀️
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,984
    Kia Ora from a sunny Aotearoa.

    Saturday afternoon means sport here and while I’m watching Trackside 1 on live stream to cover the NZ racing, the tv has the cricket free to air. It’s time we told the subscription channels to do one and have ALL sport on free to air channels.

    The cricket is intriguing - Young didn’t look comfortable right up to his dismissal. He was constantly playing across the line. Latham has been dropped twice - at 12 and 53, the second a hard chance to Duckett’s left hand.

    Carse looked ragged as his spell went on and Williamson smacked him twice through the covers for four. Atkinson looked by far the best of the bowlers.

    Stokes came on and tried to bowl in-swingers to Latham but he didn’t have the line and length. Potts came back and got Latham down the leg side.

    Ravindra has made a bright start and currently NZ are 164-2.

    As for the racing, best not go there….
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,877

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    https://order-order.com/2024/12/13/record-number-of-migrants-cross-channel-in-a-winter-day/

    Migrant crossings up 18% YOY.

    Sir Useless would be patrolling the French beaches himself with a nail on a stick if he had any pride and sense of honour.

    'Smash the gangs'.

    Also, remember that every extra 10-20% in boat arrivals adds one BILLION to our annual bill for housing these people in the Dorchester with their private manicurists

    It is fucking ridiculous. If one thing will ever make the torpid British stand up and revolt, it will be this. We are spending five tines the savings from the WFA cut to make sure illegal migrants who hate us are nicely housed in hotels

    We are letting our own pensioners die from cold so that illegally arrived Syrian jihadis plotting to kill us can live in workless luxury, in Britain

    That is literally the case. Reform are gonna win by eight trillion votes in '28
    They certainly won in St Helens last night but not maybe by trillions

    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1867366787521593355?t=a2BqLwSDdB9CIKZ1u9kFbA&s=19
    Wow. It’s happening
    Tories won the Stock county council by election yesterday in rural Essex though. Reform were second and Labour collapsed to fifth behind the LDs and an Independent
    https://x.com/BritainElects/status/1867605608838426951
    UKIP scored heavily across East Anglia and the Thames Estuary, in 2013 in County Council elections.

    I expect Reform will do similarly, but in addition, pick up seats in places like Durham, Lancashire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Cumbria.

    I think Labour will be reduced to a similar score to 2009, and lose seats to everyone. The Tories will gain from Labour, but lose ground to Reform and Lib Dem’s.
    Yes Reform likely win ex industrial and seaside towns, the Tories win market towns and villages and rural shires, the LDs win cathedral cities and posh commuter towns.

    With London and most big cities not having local elections next year Labour could be near wiped out in the county council elections
    There's very little for Labour to lose in this year of the cycle.

    The starting scores on the doors are Con 1448 Lab 365 LibDem 293. Partly becuase of the lack of elections in London, the mets and most small city unitaries, but also becuase the baseline was May 2021, which was when the Boris Blimp was at maximum inflation.
    Here's to it being the Year of the Cycle. :smile:
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,877

    Lee Anderson: "I stay in a hotel cos it saves the taxpayer... plus I don't have to wash me own towels"

    https://x.com/GBNEWS/status/1867648504140599740

    He also replies to those who accuse him of claiming £200k (or whatever) in expenses.

    On that he is right - the drones going on about expenses as personal benefit (which is often the rhetoric) undermine their own case.

    Text of that tweet:

    ‘What they don't realise is £200,000 is six members of staff's wages, rent on an office in Ashfield. Heating, phone bills, internet, printing cartridges, all that stuff comes out!’
    @LeeAndersonMP_ responds to ‘idiots’ who accuse him of claiming too much on MP’s expenses.


  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,877

    The UK does not have enough construction workers to build the 1.5 million homes the government keeps promising, industry leaders have warned.

    Tens of thousands of new recruits across bricklaying, groundworks and carpentry are needed to get anywhere near the target, they told the BBC. The Home Builders Federation (HBF), along with the UK's largest housebuilder Barratt Redrow said skills shortages, ageing workers and Brexit were some of the factors behind the shrinking workforce.

    But for every 10,000 new homes to be built, the sector needs about 30,000 new recruits across 12 trades, according to the HBF, the trade body for the house building industry in England and Wales.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yg1471rwpo

    That does not look very credible.

    3 full time FTE for each house on average?

    The Labour % of the cost of a house build is around 1/3 to 1/2. 3x skilled FTE will be 3 x ~70k,with some higher, some lower.

    I don't think it adds up when you use the build cost rather than retail price, never mind when you take out the other labour costs in the organisation.

    As ever, it's a productivity question.

    (I haven't looked up current cost numbers in SPONS, but I don't believe these claims - they are trying to shore up against the pressure on them by planning changes, at least in part.)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,984
    Vital wicket for England just before tea with Carse back on and trapping Ravindra LBW. 172-3 as they went in for their cheese scones, potato top pies and lamingtons.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,984
    MattW said:

    The UK does not have enough construction workers to build the 1.5 million homes the government keeps promising, industry leaders have warned.

    Tens of thousands of new recruits across bricklaying, groundworks and carpentry are needed to get anywhere near the target, they told the BBC. The Home Builders Federation (HBF), along with the UK's largest housebuilder Barratt Redrow said skills shortages, ageing workers and Brexit were some of the factors behind the shrinking workforce.

    But for every 10,000 new homes to be built, the sector needs about 30,000 new recruits across 12 trades, according to the HBF, the trade body for the house building industry in England and Wales.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yg1471rwpo

    That does not look very credible.

    3 full time FTE for each house on average?

    The Labour % of the cost of a house build is around 1/3 to 1/2. 3x skilled FTE will be 3 x ~70k,with some higher, some lower.

    I don't think it adds up when you use the build cost rather than retail price, never mind when you take out the other labour costs in the organisation.

    As ever, it's a productivity question.

    (I haven't looked up current cost numbers in SPONS, but I don't believe these claims - they are trying to shore up against the pressure on them by planning changes, at least in part.)
    No, it’s an availability and capacity issue. What skilled trades do you need and when do you need them in any given project or programme? You need skills such as bricklayers, electricians and carpenters but you need them at different times in different places.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,645

    https://order-order.com/2024/12/13/record-number-of-migrants-cross-channel-in-a-winter-day/

    Migrant crossings up 18% YOY.

    Sir Useless would be patrolling the French beaches himself with a nail on a stick if he had any pride and sense of honour.

    'Smash the gangs'.

    Europes not been filling up in 2024, like it done in 2023. The reason why Rumania and Bulgaria have been green-lit to join Schengen this week, the beginning of the end of land border checks, is because movement from outside EU into them has dried up.

    Even if Starmer’s government does absolutely zilch on stopping the boats, they should be handed progress to crow about throughout 2025. The drying up of illegal migration into Rumania and Bulgaria might even signal end for the channel crossing issue that sprang up about 6 years ago, especially when you factor in the part unrest in Syria played in it.

    How Europe fill up previous year, points to July upsurge in channel crossing to UK each following year, is one of the main reasons for July 4th election.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited December 14
    stodge said:

    MattW said:

    The UK does not have enough construction workers to build the 1.5 million homes the government keeps promising, industry leaders have warned.

    Tens of thousands of new recruits across bricklaying, groundworks and carpentry are needed to get anywhere near the target, they told the BBC. The Home Builders Federation (HBF), along with the UK's largest housebuilder Barratt Redrow said skills shortages, ageing workers and Brexit were some of the factors behind the shrinking workforce.

    But for every 10,000 new homes to be built, the sector needs about 30,000 new recruits across 12 trades, according to the HBF, the trade body for the house building industry in England and Wales.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yg1471rwpo

    That does not look very credible.

    3 full time FTE for each house on average?

    The Labour % of the cost of a house build is around 1/3 to 1/2. 3x skilled FTE will be 3 x ~70k,with some higher, some lower.

    I don't think it adds up when you use the build cost rather than retail price, never mind when you take out the other labour costs in the organisation.

    As ever, it's a productivity question.

    (I haven't looked up current cost numbers in SPONS, but I don't believe these claims - they are trying to shore up against the pressure on them by planning changes, at least in part.)
    No, it’s an availability and capacity issue. What skilled trades do you need and when do you need them in any given project or programme? You need skills such as bricklayers, electricians and carpenters but you need them at different times in different places.
    Also have you seen workmen on building sites ;-)

    Fag break, tea break, tea break, fag break, bog break, tea break, tea break...Is it lunchtime already.

    In a former life I ended up on a building site and remember watching a bloke take 4 days to build bugger all of this wall, then they were told they could knock off early if they had finished their allotted work for the week. The wall went up in a morning.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,505
    edited December 14
    MattW said:

    Lee Anderson: "I stay in a hotel cos it saves the taxpayer... plus I don't have to wash me own towels"

    https://x.com/GBNEWS/status/1867648504140599740

    He also replies to those who accuse him of claiming £200k (or whatever) in expenses.

    On that he is right - the drones going on about expenses as personal benefit (which is often the rhetoric) undermine their own case.

    Text of that tweet:

    ‘What they don't realise is £200,000 is six members of staff's wages, rent on an office in Ashfield. Heating, phone bills, internet, printing cartridges, all that stuff comes out!’
    @LeeAndersonMP_ responds to ‘idiots’ who accuse him of claiming too much on MP’s expenses.


    Most people who just do a regular job never consider how much it is costing their company to have them sitting at that desk. It is why WFH was initially very popular among many companies as it they thought it would enable big cost cutting and why offering hybrid isn't all about work life balance.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,984

    MattW said:

    Lee Anderson: "I stay in a hotel cos it saves the taxpayer... plus I don't have to wash me own towels"

    https://x.com/GBNEWS/status/1867648504140599740

    He also replies to those who accuse him of claiming £200k (or whatever) in expenses.

    On that he is right - the drones going on about expenses as personal benefit (which is often the rhetoric) undermine their own case.

    Text of that tweet:

    ‘What they don't realise is £200,000 is six members of staff's wages, rent on an office in Ashfield. Heating, phone bills, internet, printing cartridges, all that stuff comes out!’
    @LeeAndersonMP_ responds to ‘idiots’ who accuse him of claiming too much on MP’s expenses.


    Most people who just do a regular job never consider how much it is costing their company to have them sitting at that desk. It is why WFH was initially very popular among many companies as it they thought it would enable big cost cutting and why offering hybrid isn't all about work life balance.
    The economics of office space and utilisation have been transformed by the pandemic and other changes in working practices.

    Office space is no longer all about rows of desks or cubicles - it’s about collaborative working spaces, flexible meeting rooms with in-built partitioning and breakout spaces for networking.

    WFH has meant Mondays and especially Fridays have low utilisation numbers as many staff use those days for transactional admin work at home leaving the other three days for onsite collaborative work.

    The requirement for space hasn’t changed too much though there has been a move for firms to rent space for short periods in purpose built collaborative office spaces. Repurposing traditional office accommodation for collaborative and network spaces has been the big winner in the office accommodation market.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,877
    edited December 14
    stodge said:

    MattW said:

    The UK does not have enough construction workers to build the 1.5 million homes the government keeps promising, industry leaders have warned.

    Tens of thousands of new recruits across bricklaying, groundworks and carpentry are needed to get anywhere near the target, they told the BBC. The Home Builders Federation (HBF), along with the UK's largest housebuilder Barratt Redrow said skills shortages, ageing workers and Brexit were some of the factors behind the shrinking workforce.

    But for every 10,000 new homes to be built, the sector needs about 30,000 new recruits across 12 trades, according to the HBF, the trade body for the house building industry in England and Wales.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yg1471rwpo

    That does not look very credible.

    3 full time FTE for each house on average?

    The Labour % of the cost of a house build is around 1/3 to 1/2. 3x skilled FTE will be 3 x ~70k,with some higher, some lower.

    I don't think it adds up when you use the build cost rather than retail price, never mind when you take out the other labour costs in the organisation.

    As ever, it's a productivity question.

    (I haven't looked up current cost numbers in SPONS, but I don't believe these claims - they are trying to shore up against the pressure on them by planning changes, at least in part.)
    No, it’s an availability and capacity issue. What skilled trades do you need and when do you need them in any given project or programme? You need skills such as bricklayers, electricians and carpenters but you need them at different times in different places.
    Sorry - I just don't buy it. Starting with "we can't improve productivity" is from the wrong end.

    Around housebuilding it is linked to our use of wet trades, a hire and fire subcontracting culture, and other things.

    It's not as if the proposed increase in building is enormous - according to the numbers we have been doing around 220k house per annum, and the proposed increases are over several years. Plus imagine how much of their "manipulating the planning system" investment the construction sector may be able to save.

    If you like refer back to the Latham Report (1994?) or the Egan Report "Rethinking Construction" (1998). The latter kicked off the Construction Best Practice Programme, which I was involved in in some measure. *

    The construction companies know they are about to be under pressure to improve, and - regardless of other questions - they are getting their excuses in first. They need to shape up.

    Poor productivity has been a core problem in UK construction for the last 3 to 4 decades and has gone backwards compared to other countries in Europe in recent years. Our best is excellent, but there is a very long tail.

    *Egan Report
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egan_Report

    Recent productivity in UK Construction:
    https://www.planradar.com/gb/productivity-index-in-construction/
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,984
    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    MattW said:

    The UK does not have enough construction workers to build the 1.5 million homes the government keeps promising, industry leaders have warned.

    Tens of thousands of new recruits across bricklaying, groundworks and carpentry are needed to get anywhere near the target, they told the BBC. The Home Builders Federation (HBF), along with the UK's largest housebuilder Barratt Redrow said skills shortages, ageing workers and Brexit were some of the factors behind the shrinking workforce.

    But for every 10,000 new homes to be built, the sector needs about 30,000 new recruits across 12 trades, according to the HBF, the trade body for the house building industry in England and Wales.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yg1471rwpo

    That does not look very credible.

    3 full time FTE for each house on average?

    The Labour % of the cost of a house build is around 1/3 to 1/2. 3x skilled FTE will be 3 x ~70k,with some higher, some lower.

    I don't think it adds up when you use the build cost rather than retail price, never mind when you take out the other labour costs in the organisation.

    As ever, it's a productivity question.

    (I haven't looked up current cost numbers in SPONS, but I don't believe these claims - they are trying to shore up against the pressure on them by planning changes, at least in part.)
    No, it’s an availability and capacity issue. What skilled trades do you need and when do you need them in any given project or programme? You need skills such as bricklayers, electricians and carpenters but you need them at different times in different places.
    Sorry - I just don't buy it. Starting with "we can't improve productivity" is from the wrong end.

    Around housebuilding it is linked to our use of wet trades, a hire and fire subcontracting culture, and other things.

    It's not as if the proposed increase in building is enormous - according to the numbers we have been doing around 220k house per annum, and the proposed increases are over several years. Plus imagine how much of their "manipulating the planning system" investment the construction sector may be able to save.

    If you like refer back to the Latham Report (1994?) or the Egan Report "Rethinking Construction" (1998). The latter kicked off the Construction Best Practice Programme, which I was involved in in some measure. *

    The construction companies know they are about to be under pressure to improve, and - regardless of other questions - they are getting their excuses in first. They need to shape up.

    Poor productivity has been a core problem in UK construction for the last 3 to 4 decades and has gone backwards compared to other countries in Europe in recent years. Our best is excellent, but there is a very long tail.

    *Egan Report
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egan_Report

    Recent productivity in UK Construction:
    https://www.planradar.com/gb/productivity-index-in-construction/
    I don’t disagree the construction companies are a big part of the problem. When I did my time in local Government, we would tender for school extensions or new buildings or additions to care homes and we had our own professionals who would sense check the returns.

    It was often the case firms would submit wholly unrealistic bids - either the timescales made no sense, the costs made no sense and often both. The way building projects are procured and managed is part of the problem. We relied on contractors to source their suppliers and subbies and we were often confronted with problems and delays (you only have a finite window when doing work at a school) because some key trade hadn’t turned up or wasn’t available.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,984
    Another breakthrough for England with Kane Williamson trapped LBW for 44.
    NZ 193-4 currently and the second session has been decent for England after a frustrating morning.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,877
    stodge said:

    MattW said:

    stodge said:

    MattW said:

    The UK does not have enough construction workers to build the 1.5 million homes the government keeps promising, industry leaders have warned.

    Tens of thousands of new recruits across bricklaying, groundworks and carpentry are needed to get anywhere near the target, they told the BBC. The Home Builders Federation (HBF), along with the UK's largest housebuilder Barratt Redrow said skills shortages, ageing workers and Brexit were some of the factors behind the shrinking workforce.

    But for every 10,000 new homes to be built, the sector needs about 30,000 new recruits across 12 trades, according to the HBF, the trade body for the house building industry in England and Wales.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yg1471rwpo

    That does not look very credible.

    3 full time FTE for each house on average?

    The Labour % of the cost of a house build is around 1/3 to 1/2. 3x skilled FTE will be 3 x ~70k,with some higher, some lower.

    I don't think it adds up when you use the build cost rather than retail price, never mind when you take out the other labour costs in the organisation.

    As ever, it's a productivity question.

    (I haven't looked up current cost numbers in SPONS, but I don't believe these claims - they are trying to shore up against the pressure on them by planning changes, at least in part.)
    No, it’s an availability and capacity issue. What skilled trades do you need and when do you need them in any given project or programme? You need skills such as bricklayers, electricians and carpenters but you need them at different times in different places.
    Sorry - I just don't buy it. Starting with "we can't improve productivity" is from the wrong end.

    Around housebuilding it is linked to our use of wet trades, a hire and fire subcontracting culture, and other things.

    It's not as if the proposed increase in building is enormous - according to the numbers we have been doing around 220k house per annum, and the proposed increases are over several years. Plus imagine how much of their "manipulating the planning system" investment the construction sector may be able to save.

    If you like refer back to the Latham Report (1994?) or the Egan Report "Rethinking Construction" (1998). The latter kicked off the Construction Best Practice Programme, which I was involved in in some measure. *

    The construction companies know they are about to be under pressure to improve, and - regardless of other questions - they are getting their excuses in first. They need to shape up.

    Poor productivity has been a core problem in UK construction for the last 3 to 4 decades and has gone backwards compared to other countries in Europe in recent years. Our best is excellent, but there is a very long tail.

    *Egan Report
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egan_Report

    Recent productivity in UK Construction:
    https://www.planradar.com/gb/productivity-index-in-construction/
    I don’t disagree the construction companies are a big part of the problem. When I did my time in local Government, we would tender for school extensions or new buildings or additions to care homes and we had our own professionals who would sense check the returns.

    It was often the case firms would submit wholly unrealistic bids - either the timescales made no sense, the costs made no sense and often both. The way building projects are procured and managed is part of the problem. We relied on contractors to source their suppliers and subbies and we were often confronted with problems and delays (you only have a finite window when doing work at a school) because some key trade hadn’t turned up or wasn’t available.
    I agree there.

    Part of the way out of that is for longer time horizons, of which an underpinning will I hope be a more strategic, organised process. That should I hope provide encouragement for more in house staff, rather than day labouring subbies employed on a cost. If people are being paid thruppence to fit doors or windows at breakneck speed, then they will get stolen - and the project derailed - by the developer two miles down the road offering them fourpence.
  • MattW said:

    Lee Anderson: "I stay in a hotel cos it saves the taxpayer... plus I don't have to wash me own towels"

    https://x.com/GBNEWS/status/1867648504140599740

    He also replies to those who accuse him of claiming £200k (or whatever) in expenses.

    On that he is right - the drones going on about expenses as personal benefit (which is often the rhetoric) undermine their own case.

    Text of that tweet:

    ‘What they don't realise is £200,000 is six members of staff's wages, rent on an office in Ashfield. Heating, phone bills, internet, printing cartridges, all that stuff comes out!’
    @LeeAndersonMP_ responds to ‘idiots’ who accuse him of claiming too much on MP’s expenses.


    The expenses system is not fit for purpose. The main costs are for running an office and staff, and a second home. It would be better if these were paid from separate allowances, or perhaps centrally in the case of staff and office costs.

    This would leave far smaller sums to be claimed as expenses, and frankly it would be easier and cheaper just to give MPs an extra allowance to cover these.

    In normal employment, allowances are common, and no-one checks to see what, for instance, London weighting allowances are actually spent on.
  • It a good job England New Zealand bat deep.....
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,984
    Now 225-6 into the final session. This has been good from England but even at 105-0, the Kiwi batsmen didn’t look comfortable against Potts and Atkinson.

    I suspect the Kiwis might fancy a few overs at the England top order this evening. 68 overs bowled so far.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,877

    MattW said:

    Lee Anderson: "I stay in a hotel cos it saves the taxpayer... plus I don't have to wash me own towels"

    https://x.com/GBNEWS/status/1867648504140599740

    He also replies to those who accuse him of claiming £200k (or whatever) in expenses.

    On that he is right - the drones going on about expenses as personal benefit (which is often the rhetoric) undermine their own case.

    Text of that tweet:

    ‘What they don't realise is £200,000 is six members of staff's wages, rent on an office in Ashfield. Heating, phone bills, internet, printing cartridges, all that stuff comes out!’
    @LeeAndersonMP_ responds to ‘idiots’ who accuse him of claiming too much on MP’s expenses.


    The expenses system is not fit for purpose. The main costs are for running an office and staff, and a second home. It would be better if these were paid from separate allowances, or perhaps centrally in the case of staff and office costs.

    This would leave far smaller sums to be claimed as expenses, and frankly it would be easier and cheaper just to give MPs an extra allowance to cover these.

    In normal employment, allowances are common, and no-one checks to see what, for instance, London weighting allowances are actually spent on.
    I think they are effectively paid from separate allowances, or at least can be easily told apart, and it's a shit decision by our shit media to stir up shit deliberately.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,877
    edited December 14
    This is probably for @Andy_Cooke @BatteryCorrectHorse and maybe @eek and @stodge, and others involved in Planning Committees. It is the first detailed commentary on parts of the new NPPF I have seen, and has some good points, and draws out details we have not mentioned.

    The Christmas Film Die Hard gets a mention, as in “Ho! Ho! Ho! Now I have a machine gun!” *

    If you are not at least a little familiar with the Local Plan process, you may come away with a modest "assaulted by planning documents" headache.

    The New NPPF: A Christmas Cracker?

    The updated National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), released today (12 December 2024), promises significant changes to housing delivery, Green Belt planning, and local plan collaboration. In this analysis, members of the Cornerstone Planning and Environment Team highlight the key takeaways.

    https://cornerstonebarristers.com/the-new-nppf-a-christmas-cracker/

    * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlQoXP2XH68
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    TimS said:

    At the risk of becoming a legendary PB laughing stock:

    Could Syria surprise on the upside?

    I keep coming back to this

    https://x.com/nrg8000/status/1866747012147982577?s=46

    Plus we’re due a geopolitical surprise. Syria not continuing to be a total clusterfuck would certainly be a surprise.

    Of course it could. Doesn't mean it will.

    I note they're claiming they'll embrace the market economy, rather than Assad's state socialist kleptocracy, which might please a few of our right wing disaster merchants.

    Oh, and the Red Crescent (FWIW) say that Leon is wrong.
    A former #detainee, released from prison without identification, was reunited with a relative in #Damascus.

    The #SyrianArabRedCrescent received a report about the individual & after communicating with them, discovered a relative in the city, volunteers assisted in the #reunion.

    https://x.com/SYRedCrescent/status/1867516262307581959

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172
    Andy_JS said:

    Two hours forward in the summer would be the best change we could make.

    Agree with this 100%. I think Hitchens is wrong on this occasion.
    Last three words redundant.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,172

    CatMan said:

    Which idiot told New Zealand that they should bat? Grrrrrrrrrrrrr

    5D chess from Baz....drop Woakes, bring in an extra shit bowler who can't bat and put England batsman under pressure to test them out.
    Well played, sir.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,433
    stodge said:

    Kia Ora from a sunny Aotearoa.

    Saturday afternoon means sport here and while I’m watching Trackside 1 on live stream to cover the NZ racing, the tv has the cricket free to air. It’s time we told the subscription channels to do one and have ALL sport on free to air channels.

    The cricket is intriguing - Young didn’t look comfortable right up to his dismissal. He was constantly playing across the line. Latham has been dropped twice - at 12 and 53, the second a hard chance to Duckett’s left hand.

    Carse looked ragged as his spell went on and Williamson smacked him twice through the covers for four. Atkinson looked by far the best of the bowlers.

    Stokes came on and tried to bowl in-swingers to Latham but he didn’t have the line and length. Potts came back and got Latham down the leg side.

    Ravindra has made a bright start and currently NZ are 164-2.

    As for the racing, best not go there….

    Yesterday evening I watched the Triathlon 70.3 Women's World Championship, which was from New Zealand. A good race; won by Taylor Knibb (almost inevitably...) but chased down by a fast-moving Brit Kat Matthews at the end. There was hope... so much hope...

    Matthews wins the series, so gets a cool $200k on top of her second-place prize.

    It's the men's race this evening, starting at 18.00 UK time. Free to watch on Youtube. I don't think there's a likely British prospect amongst the men, though. Local boy Hayden Wilde is firm favourite. And he is local - he's from the town the race is being held.

    Long-form triathlon has a problem with TV. Lat night's race was just under four hours long; a full Ironman would be about eight. It's far too long for anyone but a diehard fan to watch. Worse, the swim takes up the first half-hour, and it's impossible to see who's who in the water: they all look like black specks.

    Last night's race was still a good watch, though.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,877
    edited December 14
    More Planning Detail

    The other day @Andy_Cooke replied to my comment that the "presumption in favour of sustainable development where a local plan did not exist" was being weakened, that he could not see any change in the new National Planning Policy Framework.

    To translate that into English (ish), what my quoted bit means is that if a local planning authority (LPA - ie Council, National Park etc) does not have a Local Plan in place to guide development, it devolves into a setup where housing need is met in order of Planning Applications being brought forward (ie set by a Planning Permission race amongst developers) with a presumption to approve, rather than as identified by the Local Plan in order of sustainability as evaluated by the LPA. "Sustainability" means "how suitable is this site for development" and would be based on closeness to bus routes, road capacity, inside community boundary, is access available and the other 57 relevant criteria), then in my Council all the potential sites are sorted by order and they work down from the top as to how many are needed for the Housing Requirement, and tag these are the sites they would like to have done in the Local Plan period.

    In practice this means that on Appeal the sustainability will be evaluated by the Planning Inspector, according to established principles of law, national planning policy, and precedent. And the Local Authority Planning Committee is marginalised from the process. This enables developers to bring forward sites the LPA would prefer not to have developed.

    I said that I reckoned this was now tipped back the other way, and Andy asked "how?".

    It's politics and timing.

    Labour identified that they would overhaul it all in Government, and Planning Applications slowed down in anticipation (the Shadow Minister was having a go about that in the debate). Then they said "we will be bring changes forward quickly" (which TBF they have). Now we have a changed regime coming in very quickly - the new NPPF is active immediately, and Councils are being pushed to get Local Plans through in months, and in the meantime Applications which some forward on the type of sites which Councils try to protect (eg Green Belt or Green Field) are subject to a +15% Affordable Housing requirement, which makes it more difficult for developers financially, disincentivising such applications.

    Those timings mean that there is not time for developers to put forward these edgy applications, as it takes 1-2 years overall and the new setup is already part here, and completing rapidly.

    Plus developers don't know what "Grey Belt" means as the new definition is coming in after Christmas.

    So rather than try and exploit the "presumption" battering ram with all the money that costs, they are better off waiting briefly to find out what the new process is. Because the new process is appearing as if it may be more orderly than the current wild-west situation.

    That's how I read the circumstances, anyway.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,433
    TimS said:

    At the risk of becoming a legendary PB laughing stock:

    Could Syria surprise on the upside?

    I keep coming back to this

    https://x.com/nrg8000/status/1866747012147982577?s=46

    Plus we’re due a geopolitical surprise. Syria not continuing to be a total clusterfuck would certainly be a surprise.

    That's a good thread. The concept that light visible from space equates to economic development is a good one. But ISTR an article posted on here a few years ago stating that it was no longer the case, due to low-energy bulbs, and that developed economies are now less visible from space?

    (Not that that would be much of a factor in a country where there is so much poverty?)
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