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Some 2025 specials – politicalbetting.com
Some 2025 specials – politicalbetting.com
Ladbrokes have a 2025 specials market up and to be honest this appears a good way to contribute to the Ladbrokes bonus fund.
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I need to catch up with him so I can get his take on it before I offer a view.
Not too interested right now. Verstappen and Russell may have advantages by being clear number one drivers. Norris at 2.75 (Ladbrokes' favourite over Verstappen at 3.75) is way too short.
On-topic: Mr. Eagles, I wonder if there's any possibility of hedging those by-election bets... not my type of market as it seems largely random.
Whatever the probabilities, no-to-few by-elections would have implications. Fewer banana skins for SKS, and no chance for the Conservatives to get some quality retreads back into the Commons.
1) we download a chunk of your existing mindstate.
2) we upload an LLM, trained on Owen Jones mindstate, into the space.
3) we connect the two, so all decisions are approved/vetoed by the OJ LLM
4) this will 100% prevent thought crime against The Revolution.
https://www.latimes.com/environment/newsletter/2024-12-05/column-l-a-s-massive-new-solar-farm-is-cheap-and-impressive-more-please-boiling-point
Note who is supplying the batteries.
But I guess this is a lure for over excited petition-signing reform supporters who think the coming of their Great Man is only months away now surely?
A few specific journalistic idiocies live in my head permanently.
Richard Bilton has a few. He is or was a BBC journalist. The latter nonsense was during the migrant crisis when he was in a dinghy in the middle of the Mediterranean and observed he was surrounded by water. The other was during a forest fire in Greece. Firefighters warned him to stay back and he asked if the fire was dangerous. No, Bilton, it's one of those safe forest fires, go in for a closer look.
The kicker was when the little boy, whose name escapes me, got killed by a gunman aiming for someone else in Liverpool. In a tearful interview his mother said the family was moving home, and Bilton asked if it (her young son's murder) had affected her 'that much'. ...
A lighter nonsense from ITV was when some numb nuts observed an avalanche goes downhill, powered by gravity. Cheers, I was wondering why avalanches don't go uphill.
/endramble
So because of that I am now predicting Green landslide in 2029
As part of the review, Reeves will insist that every government department find efficiency savings of 5% of their budget for the coming year over the following three years
Now, while it is impossible to know what that means, 5% of total government/state managed spending is heading for £40-£50 billion. An example the BBC gives is a programme costing about £5 million per year. 10,000 such cuts, for ever, would total £50 billion.
At the same time there is no sector - not a single one - where someone is not agitating for substantially increased expenditure.
This is one to watch.
European subsidies helped facilitate the initial growth. But I suspect the US will soon be a close second behind China now costs have fallen and you can make money installing huge solar farms.
Do have a read. Some of it is quite funny
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/it-s-not-just-nigel-farage-al-murray-the-pub-landlord-loses-south-thanet-bid-despite-patriotic-pledges-10235430.html
Take the remaining 50% and keep it as purely a "Disaster / Emergency" GENUINE NEED Fund
That's ball park £13bn quid...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg
Good morning PB. Two weeks until Christmas Eve!
Never trust a bookie who offers only one side of a bet!
https://news.sky.com/story/bankers-to-scrutinise-public-sector-spending-to-bring-private-sector-into-the-heart-of-government-13270580
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1866311431794377018
traitorous pig-dog defectorsdefector-incumbents.Wonder if there is any connection between the 2 policies.
Disappointing.
But a process that actually did a decent analysis of resource inputs versus outputs/outcomes could identify opportunities for savings without assuming any role for outsourcing.
It is now Reform surging in the polls, whereas the LDs are unchanged in polling from July and less well placed to capitalise on the Labour government's unpopularity than Farage's party is
Also any cutting of the Overseas budget will see a huge amount of pushback from Charities and NGO's who are the beneficiaries of it when given money from it to manage issues and the like to take their cut.
Also there is the money to be found for the WASPI women, we had leaders of 8 parties demanding these people get their compensation. That will be more than £10 Billion.
Back every one sided special offered by a high street bookie you would likely lose at 50%+ margin, which is pretty staggering.
Back them extremely selectively and you can win at a 50% margin, which is not close to sustainable on any other market.
aka A-U-S-T-E-R-I-T-Y
George Osborne to the Blue courtesy phone…
“Offering instant urban redevelopment opportunities, world wide.”
(Underspends often being punished I think by a reduced budget next year iirc)
.....and all that before the country took a closer look at the farmers on show in last nights PPB from the Tories.
I thought it was a spoof until I realised it wasn't. But as funny as any I've seen. I was jealous.
Oh, and got an invite for lunch at Sir Tim Rice's place.
Which was nice.
However Reform does not have the LD by-election machine. They are trying to do so and they are getting the money and the members in numbers, but that is not what makes the LD by election machine. They succeed because of the targeting organisation which lends itself superbly to a by election and the type of members who are willing to travel and work relentlessly.
There are plenty of areas where the LDs would be the main challengers and will win by elections still if given the opportunity in this parliament.
But I think you are right and Reform could pick up some spectacular by election wins without that by election machine.
I suspect that the this will hit the usual problem with trying to find savings in bureaucratic organisations - I.E. it won't be the budget for the "staff team building and social event co-ordinators" that gets cut, but instead the only way to make the numbers add up will be closing children's cancer ward... Repeat x10,000 until the cuts are too politically toxic to happen.
Yet the deep unpopularity of the SPD led government as with so many incumbent governments at present gives him a real prospect of power at the next German election.
The CSU have now ruled out a coalition with the Greens so most likely it will be another CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition
An NHS admin got a request to cut the budget. So she gave all the nurses working in oncology at Great Ormond Street notice that their jobs were at risk. And sent a boasting email to her colleagues that their allowances for entertainment etc would be saved by the political backlash she was going to create…
From the outside the easiest cut is to use permanent staff instead of far more highly paid contractors.
He argues that Badenoch keeps tripping herself up through an inability to ignore provocations, and thus lands herself with poor messaging.
Halve the Overseas Aid Budget for the next 4 years.
Saving ball park 24 billion
Fund £5bn in 2025 to 50% fund ALL Waspi claimants.
Set aside 1.5bn next 3 years to complete that... Waspis paid by 2029
Still got 14bn in surplus...
Impact on WASPI
5bn boost to spending power of millions of pensioners
Morally and ethically hammers the Tories over past decade of denial
Significantly mitigates a lot if the WFA noise
A significant Poll boost amongst most anti Labour sector.
Spikes Reform little englanders sails too
She should go further too with her anti corruption investigation in to Tory contracts for the boys
I would struggle to come up with that level of name dropping. Best I can do at the moment is we regularly borrow Richard Curtis and Emma Freud's beach hut.
Equality of pensionable age at 65 or 66 is not the issue and I'd agree as being fair.
The issue with Waspis though is those in their late 40s and especially early 50s thrown off a cliff by the Cameron Govt.
A more gentle transition was needed.
Can you imagine if on the day they announced the Waspi decision that had told every male his new retirement age is 70 or 71.
I thought that all the super wealthy had left the country.
Key also is there would be very little overlap between Reform and the LDs so there would be few if any areas where they would compete. A by election would either be a Reform target or a LD target, not both. I haven't looked it up but I suspect there are more opportunities for Reform.
And no, I didn't ask him to bung me a Bernie...
I also met a fair few (over half, I think) of the F1 drivers from about 1994/5. Not Schumacher, sadly.
It came about because I said I loved watching her rection to seeing a Golden Eagle with Hamza Yassin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7Bxd_Ab7I0
Then I told her how massive the White-tailed Eagle is. And she got very excited and said could she see one? Damn right you can...leave it to me.
The boasting email leaked, of course.
The awful droning voice reminiscent of a woman in transition to a mail on medication to reduce the tonal range does her no favours either.
Pritti is extreme but coherent, Braverman is just evil, Atkins, Whately, Trott and Coutinho are just intellectually challenged novices..
Jesus how the Tories need Penny Mordaunt
I'm glad you acknowledge the inherent sexism than had men working for years longer than women, often in much more physical jobs. Where's your anger about that?
1) told to cut
2) come up with a cut that is absolutely unacceptable.
3) get the cuts withdrawn
The test of good management is to call out on 2)