Is there much movement in the younger vote to Reform yet?
I haven’t noticed any in my younger cohort as yet. But one to watch.
Trump has extraordinary levels of support in young British men - most of these are young men:
One in three British young people would vote for Trump Thirty-two per cent of UK voters aged 18 to 24 would back Republican, a three-fold increase since same polling before 2020 election
Telegraph
Your definition of 'extraordinary' differs from mine. Did you misspell modest?
If it is true there is 1 in 3 supporting Trump among young people I would describe that as extraordinary, and it would presumably be more than 1 in 3 among young men. Given pre-election only Reform voters backed him by majority, not even Tory voters did.
Let’s be honest. It was always going to go this way.
Allegedly.....
I think the odds he’s not at best a creepy man is basically zero.
That's true, but i like to remind people of a couple of cases when media coverage went into overdrive...
William Roche, well known womaniser in his heyday, but nothing illegal. All of a sudden stories came of his doing all sorts of bad things, all turned out to be absolutely false. CPS took it all the way to court and were laughed out of their because they did do basic checks.
Jimmy Saville...after the original programme ran, quite a few people gave stories to the papers that were debunked by the guy who did the original programme e.g. incorrect details about the car they said he abused them in etc.
Wallace clearly behaved inappropriately, the weight of evidence overwhelming, and it seems like complaints weren't dealt with. Now we are getting more serious allegations, but they are allegations.
Tim Montgomerie going to Reform reminds me of the Heritage Foundation going to Trump.
Wholesale shift to the populist right.
It says far more about the abject failure of Kemi Badenoch than anything else.
Another dead duck Tory leader.
She seems to do a 2 day week... Wednesday and Thursday.
COMPLETELY invisible.
NO Policies
Thats why the increasingly irrelevant Montgomerie has jumped to join the other dead ducks in Reform
Badenoch was similarly absent as a secretary of state, entirely invisible for much of the time – and ineffectual. The fear was she would repeat that pattern as Loto, which does seem the case, at least from the early signs.
The government will take South Western Railway into public ownership in May, in Labour's first nationalisation of the passenger rail network. Plans set to be announced as early as Wednesday. Story w/ @pickardje.bsky.social
Isn't the rail network nationalised? It's only the train operator we are dealing with here?
Well there is my local train service going tits up. Thinks with a sigh that I need to buy another car
I think the point is that the mammaries are already upwards. Certainly with the ECML it was better under renationalisation, so don't buy the wheels quite yet.
As a regular user of ECML I can safely say it is not better under renationalisation. The service is noticeably poorer.
He hadn't been a Tory for a long time, and had attacked every leader since IDS.
At least people now will stop calling him one.
I laughed off Jenkyns last week but this seems more important. BBC R4 PM were busy smoothing Farage's ego earlier on his free money from Musk issue. They love Farage.
That is as bad for Labour as it is for Conservatives. What is especially bad for the Conservatives in particular is they seem to have lost their media to Farage.
Is a RefCon merger the answer? HYUFD has suggested since the election they are the legitimate government of the nation.
Farage will take over the Tories in around 2026. As you say, he already has their media and more money. It is just a matter of time and to let the Tory members go through their stages of grief.
This is a strong view you have, isn't it. Have you found a way to bet on it?
The betting markets are a lot more wary of Farage than the pb establishment so not in any volume, no. Double figures Farage Conservative leader for next election is decent but hard to get matched in anything significant.
I think old schoolers are under estimating a few things:
Farage is a very good communicator Contrary to the accepted view he is not interested it is a long stated and consistent ambition of Farage The power of the global billionaires like Musk Their influence on media and news The contempt the country has for the current rump of the Conservative party and leadership It is hard for Refuk to win outright even if they top the polls as the Cons will block a lot of seats in FPTP
And add in the (probable) continuation of a sluggish UK economy (under any party but voters tend not to accept that).
Yes, I can see it. But I'm hoping Trump implodes and if so that will change things.
He probably will implode. It is the second part I doubt. It won't change things, it will just be reported to the MAGAs as the deep state blocking him which means we need to give even more power and money to the billionaires.
We are living through very unpredictable times and with Trump looming then the political order could be turned upside down
I know Labour supporters are trying to console themselves that in time their fortunes will change, but that would only be possible if Reeves hadn't produced the most extraordinary anti growth budget that is already being seen in falling business confidence and consumer spending
It is also silly to attribute the country’s mood to the 'tory press' when most do not read newspapers, but they certainly are not motivated by Starmer lacks any form of charisma and simply is not a politician much like Sunak.
Here in Wales Labour have the fight of their lives to hold on to the Senedd in 2026 and the most recent poll sees them lose 13% and are below Plaid and level with Reform which is a real wake up call for them
Also in Scotland, Reform are a real threat to both labour and conservatives and the red wall in England looks very difficult for them as well
It is understandable Labour supporters try to deflect from their plight but all the polling, surveys and business comments, indicate that this could be a very long period of unpopularity for the party that has such a huge majority
I would say, for all the cricism, Sunak was right to go early as the conservatives had no prospects of overcoming the desire for change and it is all about making difficult but correct decisions but Labour have done neither so far
Is there much movement in the younger vote to Reform yet?
I haven’t noticed any in my younger cohort as yet. But one to watch.
Trump has extraordinary levels of support in young British men - most of these are young men:
One in three British young people would vote for Trump Thirty-two per cent of UK voters aged 18 to 24 would back Republican, a three-fold increase since same polling before 2020 election
Telegraph
Your definition of 'extraordinary' differs from mine. Did you misspell modest?
I can’t find the exact stats but I think support for Trump among young British men is not far off 50% (which makes sense if it is 32% in all young people and women are FAR more wary)
And yeah, I find that extraordinary
I'd find it hard to believe that young British men know much at all about Trump. You and I are old British men - we know more than the young, but do we really know very much? Would a poll saying that most young British men believe Mozart was a communist have any meaning?
This is Denial
The hard/populist/far right is on the march with the young across the West. Britain is not an exception, merely a latecomer. See the support for the AfD and Le Pen, ditto Trump
It makes a lot of sense, once young people realise that mass migration makes buying a house much harder they switch; men get there quicker because they already feel cheated; eventually young women follow when they realise mass migration makes streets less safe
I also find it extremely worrying that 43% of people occasionally or more often struggle to buy food for their families. That figure should be the priority of the government because 43% means millions of households with reasonable incomes are struggling to make ends meet, not just those on low or fixed incomes.
I don't see how £30bn in price rises and wage freezes from April will help, though.
Those on minimum wage do get a chunky payrise then though.
And those laid off to afford the rise in minimum wage and the ni increase? They don't get a nice payrise
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Musk has only one dominant thread in his DNA and it's got feck all to do with the UK
He's a full on card carrying fascist Afrikaaner.
He has no place in the UK, should have no role in the UK and is more dangerous than any mad mullah
Ban the fecker.
Blow his satellites out of orbit
Ban his cars.
Ban Twitter
If he won't shut up, put a bounty on his head like Bin Laden.
He is a bigger threat to the globe right now than any other living person.
I do so like to see a measured, balanced contribution to PB.
I think someone forgot to take their dried frog pills today.
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Far closer to the truth than Leon's starry eyed take.
oh
“Musk had explained his interest in the UK by saying: “You are the mother country of the entirety of the English speaking world, it really matters.””
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Musk has only one dominant thread in his DNA and it's got feck all to do with the UK
He's a full on card carrying fascist Afrikaaner.
He has no place in the UK, should have no role in the UK and is more dangerous than any mad mullah
Ban the fecker.
Blow his satellites out of orbit
Ban his cars.
Ban Twitter
If he won't shut up, put a bounty on his head like Bin Laden.
He is a bigger threat to the globe right now than any other living person.
I do so like to see a measured, balanced contribution to PB.
I think someone forgot to take their dried frog pills today.
Everything in moderation, including moderation itself. More people need to go full on.
I'm not really capable of it myself, so others will need to pick up the slack.
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Musk has only one dominant thread in his DNA and it's got feck all to do with the UK
He's a full on card carrying fascist Afrikaaner.
He has no place in the UK, should have no role in the UK and is more dangerous than any mad mullah
Ban the fecker.
Blow his satellites out of orbit
Ban his cars.
Ban Twitter
If he won't shut up, put a bounty on his head like Bin Laden.
He is a bigger threat to the globe right now than any other living person.
I do so like to see a measured, balanced contribution to PB.
I think someone forgot to take their dried frog pills today.
The James Bond timeline would of course involve at least blowing his satellites out of orbit and putting a bounty on his head. There would be a man to man showdown at the end too.
They don’t tend to ban bond villains’ products though. Or perhaps they do but the franchise doesn’t tend to linger on the inner workings of the HSE or the European Commission.
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Far closer to the truth than Leon's starry eyed take.
oh
“Musk had explained his interest in the UK by saying: “You are the mother country of the entirety of the English speaking world, it really matters.””
Oh dear. Get off your knees Elon. Nobody respects a creep.
They'll make him the richest man on earth though, which forces respect. Most of those top tech bros seem pretty weird. Wouldn't make it otherwise I suppose.
We are living through very unpredictable times and with Trump looming then the political order could be turned upside down
I know Labour supporters are trying to console themselves that in time their fortunes will change, but that would only be possible if Reeves hadn't produced the most extraordinary anti growth budget that is already being seen in falling business confidence and consumer spending
It is also silly to attribute the country’s mood to the 'tory press' when most do not read newspapers, but they certainly are not motivated by Starmer lacks any form of charisma and simply is not a politician much like Sunak.
Here in Wales Labour have the fight of their lives to hold on to the Senedd in 2026 and the most recent poll sees them lose 13% and are below Plaid and level with Reform which is a real wake up call for them
Also in Scotland, Reform are a real threat to both labour and conservatives and the red wall in England looks very difficult for them as well
It is understandable Labour supporters try to deflect from their plight but all the polling, surveys and business comments, indicate that this could be a very long period of unpopularity for the party that has such a huge majority
I would say, for all the cricism, Sunak was right to go early as the conservatives had no prospects of overcoming the desire for change and it is all about making difficult but correct decisions but Labour have done neither so far
We will all know in 3 years time
Thatcher was far more unpopular after 12 months than Starmer is now.
Whatever one's views of her politics were, she had a knack of peaking at the right time of every electoral cycle.
No reason why Starmer can't do the same.
I would wager now that 50% of the Tory vote would vote Labour in 2029 If Farage was the main opposition.
Tim Montgomerie going to Reform reminds me of the Heritage Foundation going to Trump.
Wholesale shift to the populist right.
It says far more about the abject failure of Kemi Badenoch than anything else.
Another dead duck Tory leader.
She seems to do a 2 day week... Wednesday and Thursday.
COMPLETELY invisible.
NO Policies
Thats why the increasingly irrelevant Montgomerie has jumped to join the other dead ducks in Reform
Badenoch has been in office a few weeks, and yet you are jumping up and down about her, even shouting, when you should really look closer to home with Starmer falling like a stone along with his party
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Musk has only one dominant thread in his DNA and it's got feck all to do with the UK
He's a full on card carrying fascist Afrikaaner.
He has no place in the UK, should have no role in the UK and is more dangerous than any mad mullah
Ban the fecker.
Blow his satellites out of orbit
Ban his cars.
Ban Twitter
If he won't shut up, put a bounty on his head like Bin Laden.
He is a bigger threat to the globe right now than any other living person.
I do so like to see a measured, balanced contribution to PB.
I think someone forgot to take their dried frog pills today.
I’ve actually EATEN dried frog. It’s not great, TBH
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Musk has only one dominant thread in his DNA and it's got feck all to do with the UK
He's a full on card carrying fascist Afrikaaner.
He has no place in the UK, should have no role in the UK and is more dangerous than any mad mullah
Ban the fecker.
Blow his satellites out of orbit
Ban his cars.
Ban Twitter
If he won't shut up, put a bounty on his head like Bin Laden.
He is a bigger threat to the globe right now than any other living person.
I do so like to see a measured, balanced contribution to PB.
I think someone forgot to take their dried frog pills today.
We are living through very unpredictable times and with Trump looming then the political order could be turned upside down
I know Labour supporters are trying to console themselves that in time their fortunes will change, but that would only be possible if Reeves hadn't produced the most extraordinary anti growth budget that is already being seen in falling business confidence and consumer spending
It is also silly to attribute the country’s mood to the 'tory press' when most do not read newspapers, but they certainly are not motivated by Starmer lacks any form of charisma and simply is not a politician much like Sunak.
Here in Wales Labour have the fight of their lives to hold on to the Senedd in 2026 and the most recent poll sees them lose 13% and are below Plaid and level with Reform which is a real wake up call for them
Also in Scotland, Reform are a real threat to both labour and conservatives and the red wall in England looks very difficult for them as well
It is understandable Labour supporters try to deflect from their plight but all the polling, surveys and business comments, indicate that this could be a very long period of unpopularity for the party that has such a huge majority
I would say, for all the cricism, Sunak was right to go early as the conservatives had no prospects of overcoming the desire for change and it is all about making difficult but correct decisions but Labour have done neither so far
We will all know in 3 years time
Thatcher was far more unpopular after 12 months than Starmer is now.
Whatever one's views of her politics were, she had a knack of peaking at the right time of every electoral cycle.
No reason why Starmer can't do the same.
I would wager now that 50% of the Tory vote would vote Labour in 2029 If Farage was the main opposition.
Was Thatcher FAR more unpopular in the way you describe?
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Musk has only one dominant thread in his DNA and it's got feck all to do with the UK
He's a full on card carrying fascist Afrikaaner.
He has no place in the UK, should have no role in the UK and is more dangerous than any mad mullah
Ban the fecker.
Blow his satellites out of orbit
Ban his cars.
Ban Twitter
If he won't shut up, put a bounty on his head like Bin Laden.
He is a bigger threat to the globe right now than any other living person.
I do so like to see a measured, balanced contribution to PB.
I think someone forgot to take their dried frog pills today.
I’ve actually EATEN dried frog. It’s not great, TBH
Frogs legs are absolutely great. 've never eaten other frog parts.
We are living through very unpredictable times and with Trump looming then the political order could be turned upside down
I know Labour supporters are trying to console themselves that in time their fortunes will change, but that would only be possible if Reeves hadn't produced the most extraordinary anti growth budget that is already being seen in falling business confidence and consumer spending
It is also silly to attribute the country’s mood to the 'tory press' when most do not read newspapers, but they certainly are not motivated by Starmer lacks any form of charisma and simply is not a politician much like Sunak.
Here in Wales Labour have the fight of their lives to hold on to the Senedd in 2026 and the most recent poll sees them lose 13% and are below Plaid and level with Reform which is a real wake up call for them
Also in Scotland, Reform are a real threat to both labour and conservatives and the red wall in England looks very difficult for them as well
It is understandable Labour supporters try to deflect from their plight but all the polling, surveys and business comments, indicate that this could be a very long period of unpopularity for the party that has such a huge majority
I would say, for all the cricism, Sunak was right to go early as the conservatives had no prospects of overcoming the desire for change and it is all about making difficult but correct decisions but Labour have done neither so far
We will all know in 3 years time
Thatcher was far more unpopular after 12 months than Starmer is now.
Whatever one's views of her politics were, she had a knack of peaking at the right time of every electoral cycle.
No reason why Starmer can't do the same.
I would wager now that 50% of the Tory vote would vote Labour in 2029 If Farage was the main opposition.
Of course there's a eason why Starmer won't do the same, he's shite.
Tim Montgomerie going to Reform reminds me of the Heritage Foundation going to Trump.
Wholesale shift to the populist right.
Though the consequences might play out differently here, because the system is different.
For a start, MAGA worked by being parasitical on the Republican party. The primary system meant they could take the party over and hollow it out. On top of that, the two party system makes it harder for non-MAGA Republicans to make the big jump to the other side. A few have done it, but mostly in retirement.
So far, Reform haven't been able to take over the Conservatives. Arguably, Jenrick came close, but no cigar. And defections of members, activists and politicians are less rare. If the Conservatives went full Farage, at least some wets would go elsewhere.
So the populist right are stuck with boosting Reform. But for now, that mostly cements Starmer in place by splitting the right vote. That might change eventually, but the tipping point is some way off.
Musk throwing money and noise at something he doesn't fully understand? Surely not.
Both Labour and the Tories are seeing the biggest challenges to their dominance (and potential political relevance) for decades.
Labour probably have the better outlook right now because they're in government so it's measurably easier for them to control their own destiny. The Tories aren't going to start rebuilding until such point as they're able to put meat on the bones in terms of policy, outlook, approach etc. At the moment they are struggling to say much of relevance, though that's no difference with any party that has just lost power at this stage in the cycle and I don't think that can really be laid at Badenoch's door. In a couple of year's time, things will be much clearer.
But watch Reform. I am absolutely convinced that the circumstances exist to potentially turn them into a major force in British politics - not something I want, but something I can very easily see happening. Nothing is set in stone yet, but the sense of disillusionment in the country with Lab/Con is palpable and that is exactly the fertile ground Farage needs to grow and develop his brand. His laziness may stop him, but it feels like he has some better administrators behind him now.
We are living through very unpredictable times and with Trump looming then the political order could be turned upside down
I know Labour supporters are trying to console themselves that in time their fortunes will change, but that would only be possible if Reeves hadn't produced the most extraordinary anti growth budget that is already being seen in falling business confidence and consumer spending
It is also silly to attribute the country’s mood to the 'tory press' when most do not read newspapers, but they certainly are not motivated by Starmer lacks any form of charisma and simply is not a politician much like Sunak.
Here in Wales Labour have the fight of their lives to hold on to the Senedd in 2026 and the most recent poll sees them lose 13% and are below Plaid and level with Reform which is a real wake up call for them
Also in Scotland, Reform are a real threat to both labour and conservatives and the red wall in England looks very difficult for them as well
It is understandable Labour supporters try to deflect from their plight but all the polling, surveys and business comments, indicate that this could be a very long period of unpopularity for the party that has such a huge majority
I would say, for all the cricism, Sunak was right to go early as the conservatives had no prospects of overcoming the desire for change and it is all about making difficult but correct decisions but Labour have done neither so far
We will all know in 3 years time
Thatcher was far more unpopular after 12 months than Starmer is now.
Whatever one's views of her politics were, she had a knack of peaking at the right time of every electoral cycle.
No reason why Starmer can't do the same.
I would wager now that 50% of the Tory vote would vote Labour in 2029 If Farage was the main opposition.
They are far more likely to vote for anyone but Labour
Indeed tactical voting against Labour may well start to become apparent in locals and certainly in the Welsh and Scottish elections in 2026
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Musk has only one dominant thread in his DNA and it's got feck all to do with the UK
He's a full on card carrying fascist Afrikaaner.
He has no place in the UK, should have no role in the UK and is more dangerous than any mad mullah
Ban the fecker.
Blow his satellites out of orbit
Ban his cars.
Ban Twitter
If he won't shut up, put a bounty on his head like Bin Laden.
He is a bigger threat to the globe right now than any other living person.
I do so like to see a measured, balanced contribution to PB.
I think someone forgot to take their dried frog pills today.
I’ve actually EATEN dried frog. It’s not great, TBH
Frogs legs are absolutely great. 've never eaten other frog parts.
Not a big fan of frog’s legs. Not horrible but not my choice
Dried frog is on a different level of horror, omfg
THAT said I ate something recently on my travels which was the worst thing ever to enter my mouth - AND I’VE FORGOTTEN WHAT IT WAS
AAAARGH
I’ve just had too many experiences recently. I’ve been to
NO WAIT I’VE REMEMBERED
Salmon candy. A form of very sweet sugary salmon, like jerky but with salmon and sweetness. Had it in Vancouver Food Market
Both Labour and the Tories are seeing the biggest challenges to their dominance (and potential political relevance) for decades.
Labour probably have the better outlook right now because they're in government so it's measurably easier for them to control their own destiny. The Tories aren't going to start rebuilding until such point as they're able to put meat on the bones in terms of policy, outlook, approach etc. At the moment they are struggling to say much of relevance, though that's no difference with any party that has just lost power at this stage in the cycle and I don't think that can really be laid at Badenoch's door. In a couple of year's time, things will be much clearer.
But watch Reform. I am absolutely convinced that the circumstances exist to potentially turn them into a major force in British politics - not something I want, but something I can very easily see happening. Nothing is set in stone yet, but the sense of disillusionment in the country with Lab/Con is palpable and that is exactly the fertile ground Farage needs to grow and develop his brand. His laziness may stop him, but it feels like he has some better administrators behind him now.
Both Labour and the Tories are seeing the biggest challenges to their dominance (and potential political relevance) for decades.
Labour probably have the better outlook right now because they're in government so it's measurably easier for them to control their own destiny. The Tories aren't going to start rebuilding until such point as they're able to put meat on the bones in terms of policy, outlook, approach etc. At the moment they are struggling to say much of relevance, though that's no difference with any party that has just lost power at this stage in the cycle and I don't think that can really be laid at Badenoch's door. In a couple of year's time, things will be much clearer.
But watch Reform. I am absolutely convinced that the circumstances exist to potentially turn them into a major force in British politics - not something I want, but something I can very easily see happening. Nothing is set in stone yet, but the sense of disillusionment in the country with Lab/Con is palpable and that is exactly the fertile ground Farage needs to grow and develop his brand. His laziness may stop him, but it feels like he has some better administrators behind him now.
The British public will not be frogmarched in to becoming the 51st State by Farage, Trump, Musk or anyone else.
The Honourable Member for Mar A Lago will vanish up Trumps backside the minute the tide turns
Tim Montgomerie going to Reform reminds me of the Heritage Foundation going to Trump.
Wholesale shift to the populist right.
Though the consequences might play out differently here, because the system is different.
For a start, MAGA worked by being parasitical on the Republican party. The primary system meant they could take the party over and hollow it out. On top of that, the two party system makes it harder for non-MAGA Republicans to make the big jump to the other side. A few have done it, but mostly in retirement.
So far, Reform haven't been able to take over the Conservatives. Arguably, Jenrick came close, but no cigar. And defections of members, activists and politicians are less rare. If the Conservatives went full Farage, at least some wets would go elsewhere.
So the populist right are stuck with boosting Reform. But for now, that mostly cements Starmer in place by splitting the right vote. That might change eventually, but the tipping point is some way off.
Musk throwing money and noise at something he doesn't fully understand? Surely not.
Yes, poor Musk he only made $15bn off the US election.
Should I forward your name as a wealth adviser to the world's richest man ?
Tim Montgomerie going to Reform reminds me of the Heritage Foundation going to Trump.
Wholesale shift to the populist right.
Though the consequences might play out differently here, because the system is different.
For a start, MAGA worked by being parasitical on the Republican party. The primary system meant they could take the party over and hollow it out. On top of that, the two party system makes it harder for non-MAGA Republicans to make the big jump to the other side. A few have done it, but mostly in retirement.
So far, Reform haven't been able to take over the Conservatives. Arguably, Jenrick came close, but no cigar. And defections of members, activists and politicians are less rare. If the Conservatives went full Farage, at least some wets would go elsewhere.
So the populist right are stuck with boosting Reform. But for now, that mostly cements Starmer in place by splitting the right vote. That might change eventually, but the tipping point is some way off.
Musk throwing money and noise at something he doesn't fully understand? Surely not.
Yes, poor Musk he only made $15bn off the US election.
Should I forward your name as a wealth adviser to the world's richest man ?
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Far closer to the truth than Leon's starry eyed take.
oh
“Musk had explained his interest in the UK by saying: “You are the mother country of the entirety of the English speaking world, it really matters.””
We are living through very unpredictable times and with Trump looming then the political order could be turned upside down
I know Labour supporters are trying to console themselves that in time their fortunes will change, but that would only be possible if Reeves hadn't produced the most extraordinary anti growth budget that is already being seen in falling business confidence and consumer spending
It is also silly to attribute the country’s mood to the 'tory press' when most do not read newspapers, but they certainly are not motivated by Starmer lacks any form of charisma and simply is not a politician much like Sunak.
Here in Wales Labour have the fight of their lives to hold on to the Senedd in 2026 and the most recent poll sees them lose 13% and are below Plaid and level with Reform which is a real wake up call for them
Also in Scotland, Reform are a real threat to both labour and conservatives and the red wall in England looks very difficult for them as well
It is understandable Labour supporters try to deflect from their plight but all the polling, surveys and business comments, indicate that this could be a very long period of unpopularity for the party that has such a huge majority
I would say, for all the cricism, Sunak was right to go early as the conservatives had no prospects of overcoming the desire for change and it is all about making difficult but correct decisions but Labour have done neither so far
We will all know in 3 years time
Thatcher was far more unpopular after 12 months than Starmer is now.
Whatever one's views of her politics were, she had a knack of peaking at the right time of every electoral cycle.
No reason why Starmer can't do the same.
I would wager now that 50% of the Tory vote would vote Labour in 2029 If Farage was the main opposition.
Of course there's a eason why Starmer won't do the same, he's shite.
If that's the sum total of the argument he's home and hosed
We are living through very unpredictable times and with Trump looming then the political order could be turned upside down
I know Labour supporters are trying to console themselves that in time their fortunes will change, but that would only be possible if Reeves hadn't produced the most extraordinary anti growth budget that is already being seen in falling business confidence and consumer spending
It is also silly to attribute the country’s mood to the 'tory press' when most do not read newspapers, but they certainly are not motivated by Starmer lacks any form of charisma and simply is not a politician much like Sunak.
Here in Wales Labour have the fight of their lives to hold on to the Senedd in 2026 and the most recent poll sees them lose 13% and are below Plaid and level with Reform which is a real wake up call for them
Also in Scotland, Reform are a real threat to both labour and conservatives and the red wall in England looks very difficult for them as well
It is understandable Labour supporters try to deflect from their plight but all the polling, surveys and business comments, indicate that this could be a very long period of unpopularity for the party that has such a huge majority
I would say, for all the cricism, Sunak was right to go early as the conservatives had no prospects of overcoming the desire for change and it is all about making difficult but correct decisions but Labour have done neither so far
We will all know in 3 years time
Thatcher was far more unpopular after 12 months than Starmer is now.
Whatever one's views of her politics were, she had a knack of peaking at the right time of every electoral cycle.
No reason why Starmer can't do the same.
I would wager now that 50% of the Tory vote would vote Labour in 2029 If Farage was the main opposition.
Was Thatcher FAR more unpopular in the way you describe?
Citation required
If you were around in the 12 months before she had the Belgrano sunk you'd know very well that she was reviled.
She was very controversial and certainly did not share my politics but when I was desperately ill last year she was truly kind and considerate to me and she showed a very different personality
The present @Shecorns88 is simply too sycophantic to be real
Tim Montgomerie going to Reform reminds me of the Heritage Foundation going to Trump.
Wholesale shift to the populist right.
Though the consequences might play out differently here, because the system is different.
For a start, MAGA worked by being parasitical on the Republican party. The primary system meant they could take the party over and hollow it out. On top of that, the two party system makes it harder for non-MAGA Republicans to make the big jump to the other side. A few have done it, but mostly in retirement.
So far, Reform haven't been able to take over the Conservatives. Arguably, Jenrick came close, but no cigar. And defections of members, activists and politicians are less rare. If the Conservatives went full Farage, at least some wets would go elsewhere.
So the populist right are stuck with boosting Reform. But for now, that mostly cements Starmer in place by splitting the right vote. That might change eventually, but the tipping point is some way off.
Musk throwing money and noise at something he doesn't fully understand? Surely not.
Yes, poor Musk he only made $15bn off the US election.
Should I forward your name as a wealth adviser to the world's richest man ?
Musk has actually made more like $60bn, I believe
So what ? If only he would come on PB he could learn what a poor wealth creator he is , some of our regulars earned as much as £5.60 from their election bets. It puts his miserable billions to shame.
Tim Montgomerie going to Reform reminds me of the Heritage Foundation going to Trump.
Wholesale shift to the populist right.
Though the consequences might play out differently here, because the system is different.
For a start, MAGA worked by being parasitical on the Republican party. The primary system meant they could take the party over and hollow it out. On top of that, the two party system makes it harder for non-MAGA Republicans to make the big jump to the other side. A few have done it, but mostly in retirement.
So far, Reform haven't been able to take over the Conservatives. Arguably, Jenrick came close, but no cigar. And defections of members, activists and politicians are less rare. If the Conservatives went full Farage, at least some wets would go elsewhere.
So the populist right are stuck with boosting Reform. But for now, that mostly cements Starmer in place by splitting the right vote. That might change eventually, but the tipping point is some way off.
Musk throwing money and noise at something he doesn't fully understand? Surely not.
Yes, poor Musk he only made $15bn off the US election.
Should I forward your name as a wealth adviser to the world's richest man ?
Stuart's whole post was about the key differences between the US and UK political landscape.
Should we forward your name to the admissions tutor for Comprehension Studies at the University of Life?
I'm guessing the government sending 600 Brazilians back to that country won't impress anyone much, whichever side of the political spectrum they may be on.
Tim Montgomerie going to Reform reminds me of the Heritage Foundation going to Trump.
Wholesale shift to the populist right.
Though the consequences might play out differently here, because the system is different.
For a start, MAGA worked by being parasitical on the Republican party. The primary system meant they could take the party over and hollow it out. On top of that, the two party system makes it harder for non-MAGA Republicans to make the big jump to the other side. A few have done it, but mostly in retirement.
So far, Reform haven't been able to take over the Conservatives. Arguably, Jenrick came close, but no cigar. And defections of members, activists and politicians are less rare. If the Conservatives went full Farage, at least some wets would go elsewhere.
So the populist right are stuck with boosting Reform. But for now, that mostly cements Starmer in place by splitting the right vote. That might change eventually, but the tipping point is some way off.
Musk throwing money and noise at something he doesn't fully understand? Surely not.
Yes, poor Musk he only made $15bn off the US election.
Should I forward your name as a wealth adviser to the world's richest man ?
No need. But past performance is no guide to the future- everyone knows that.
Assertion: Shecorns88 is a @Leon bot. He's talked about such a thing for a while, but I'm pretty sure he's done it.
Heathener has been mooted. It was not denied. But then there were those who claimed Heathener was Leon.
It's the absolute certainty which is unnerving. Like a lefty HYFUD but with less self-reflection.
Like most bots it never denies.
I’m deeply flattered that you believe I have the multitasking skills to lead my busy life AND create and nurture entire new sock puppet characters on PB
Consider, I am in Santa Marta, Colombia, on the Caribbean coast, I only arrived yesterday (so: major jet lag). Tomorrow I go onwards up the River Maddalena, one of the great rivers of the world
I have just written a piece for the Gazette this morning. I am also mapping out TWO major year-long flint projects, using various assistants, and also reading related books (like W G Sebald). I am also running the general chores of the self employed (taxes, etc), keeping up with friends and family daily and also exploring Colombia for my Gazette Travel piece (and researching the local history). And finally I am arranging trips for earlier next year, including Thailand, Cambodia and Uruguay
Betting post: Does anyone else think that Tim Montgomerie going to Reform may be a story with a great deal more significance than it may seem to have at first sight?
In my mental oddschecker it changes the odds a little bit about Tory and Reform related matters.
And it raises from one (Farage of course) to two the number of Reform people whose words may be of more than purely comedy interest. And he is a voice a lot of the media (not just GB News_) takes seriously as a pundit. DYOR.
I think it’s a straw in the wind for large parts of the traditional Tory media ecosystem defecting.
What Kemi doesn't seem to understand is that she can placate the powerful Osbornite vested interests within the Tory Party as much as she likes, but they're actually only interested in the party because of its potential to gain power anyway. The minute she starts to get seriously behind Reform in the polls, they will drop her like a hot brick and start cosying up to Reform and Farage, the very element they are moulding the Tory Party to reject. She needs to drop them before they do it to her, basically steal Jenrick and Truss's policy agenda but wrap it in some Kemi language, unite the PCP behind a right wing agenda and remove the Lib Dems from CCHQ. She will need to do all of that just to tread water.
Tim Montgomerie going to Reform reminds me of the Heritage Foundation going to Trump.
Wholesale shift to the populist right.
Though the consequences might play out differently here, because the system is different.
For a start, MAGA worked by being parasitical on the Republican party. The primary system meant they could take the party over and hollow it out. On top of that, the two party system makes it harder for non-MAGA Republicans to make the big jump to the other side. A few have done it, but mostly in retirement.
So far, Reform haven't been able to take over the Conservatives. Arguably, Jenrick came close, but no cigar. And defections of members, activists and politicians are less rare. If the Conservatives went full Farage, at least some wets would go elsewhere.
So the populist right are stuck with boosting Reform. But for now, that mostly cements Starmer in place by splitting the right vote. That might change eventually, but the tipping point is some way off.
Musk throwing money and noise at something he doesn't fully understand? Surely not.
Yes, poor Musk he only made $15bn off the US election.
Should I forward your name as a wealth adviser to the world's richest man ?
Musk has actually made more like $60bn, I believe
Did you remember to pack the photo of him for your latest trip?
Good job it's laminated, isn't it. All the wear and tear.
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Far closer to the truth than Leon's starry eyed take.
oh
“Musk had explained his interest in the UK by saying: “You are the mother country of the entirety of the English speaking world, it really matters.””
You need to distinguish between a lie and an opinion.
"My firstborn child died in my arms. I felt his last heartbeat," is not an 'opinion'. And it is denied (angrily) by his ex-wife.
If he lies about his child dying in his arms, what else would he lie about.
"Ah", I hear you say. "She is obviously lying."
Well, if you want another example, his lies about his father owning, or not owning an emerald mine.
There are many, many others.
There are many examples of Starmer lying too, but that's not the point.
If he says he thinks that Britain, as the mother country, matters to the fate of global Anglosphere politics, that's an opinion, not something that can be a lie, unless you suspect that he doesn't really think this, but what is the evidence for that?
Tim Montgomerie going to Reform reminds me of the Heritage Foundation going to Trump.
Wholesale shift to the populist right.
Though the consequences might play out differently here, because the system is different.
For a start, MAGA worked by being parasitical on the Republican party. The primary system meant they could take the party over and hollow it out. On top of that, the two party system makes it harder for non-MAGA Republicans to make the big jump to the other side. A few have done it, but mostly in retirement.
So far, Reform haven't been able to take over the Conservatives. Arguably, Jenrick came close, but no cigar. And defections of members, activists and politicians are less rare. If the Conservatives went full Farage, at least some wets would go elsewhere.
So the populist right are stuck with boosting Reform. But for now, that mostly cements Starmer in place by splitting the right vote. That might change eventually, but the tipping point is some way off.
Musk throwing money and noise at something he doesn't fully understand? Surely not.
Yes, poor Musk he only made $15bn off the US election.
Should I forward your name as a wealth adviser to the world's richest man ?
No need. But past performance is no guide to the future- everyone knows that.
Of course, but this year alone he made more than all of PB combined will ever make in their lifetimes. And if he choses to splash around a few billion to keep himself amused then good on him. He cant take it with him. He has money choices we will never have,
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
I heard a theory that it's because he basically isn't sleeping much, continuously taking things to stay awake. And when the rest of US is asleep and he's on social media, he sees the UK stuff due to the time zone.
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Musk has only one dominant thread in his DNA and it's got feck all to do with the UK
He's a full on card carrying fascist Afrikaaner.
He has no place in the UK, should have no role in the UK and is more dangerous than any mad mullah
Ban the fecker.
Blow his satellites out of orbit
Ban his cars.
Ban Twitter
If he won't shut up, put a bounty on his head like Bin Laden.
He is a bigger threat to the globe right now than any other living person.
I do so like to see a measured, balanced contribution to PB.
I think someone forgot to take their dried frog pills today.
I’ve actually EATEN dried frog. It’s not great, TBH
Frogs legs are absolutely great. 've never eaten other frog parts.
I've eaten fried frogs in Italy (the heads are crunchy) and grilled ones in Cambodia. There's not much meat on them apart from the back legs.
I also find it extremely worrying that 43% of people occasionally or more often struggle to buy food for their families. That figure should be the priority of the government because 43% means millions of households with reasonable incomes are struggling to make ends meet, not just those on low or fixed incomes.
I don't see how £30bn in price rises and wage freezes from April will help, though.
Those on minimum wage do get a chunky payrise then though.
And those laid off to afford the rise in minimum wage and the ni increase? They don't get a nice payrise
And in any case that pay rise is more than eaten up by the rent increases effected by the government's war on landlords.
Assertion: Shecorns88 is a @Leon bot. He's talked about such a thing for a while, but I'm pretty sure he's done it.
Heathener has been mooted. It was not denied. But then there were those who claimed Heathener was Leon.
It's the absolute certainty which is unnerving. Like a lefty HYFUD but with less self-reflection.
Like most bots it never denies.
I’m deeply flattered that you believe I have the multitasking skills to lead my busy life AND create and nurture entire new sock puppet characters on PB
Consider, I am in Santa Marta, Colombia, on the Caribbean coast, I only arrived yesterday (so: major jet lag). Tomorrow I go onwards up the River Maddalena, one of the great rivers of the world
I have just written a piece for the Gazette this morning. I am also mapping out TWO major year-long flint projects, using various assistants, and also reading related books (like W G Sebald). I am also running the general chores of the self employed (taxes, etc), keeping up with friends and family daily and also exploring Colombia for my Gazette Travel piece (and researching the local history). And finally I am arranging trips for earlier next year, including Thailand, Cambodia and Uruguay
Trust me. I do not have time to create bots on PB
I did warn you that fecking off to Medellin and setting me up as some sort of coherent lefty supporting bot would require more of your time than you have given me.
Tim Montgomerie going to Reform reminds me of the Heritage Foundation going to Trump.
Wholesale shift to the populist right.
Though the consequences might play out differently here, because the system is different.
For a start, MAGA worked by being parasitical on the Republican party. The primary system meant they could take the party over and hollow it out. On top of that, the two party system makes it harder for non-MAGA Republicans to make the big jump to the other side. A few have done it, but mostly in retirement.
So far, Reform haven't been able to take over the Conservatives. Arguably, Jenrick came close, but no cigar. And defections of members, activists and politicians are less rare. If the Conservatives went full Farage, at least some wets would go elsewhere.
So the populist right are stuck with boosting Reform. But for now, that mostly cements Starmer in place by splitting the right vote. That might change eventually, but the tipping point is some way off.
Musk throwing money and noise at something he doesn't fully understand? Surely not.
Yes, poor Musk he only made $15bn off the US election.
Should I forward your name as a wealth adviser to the world's richest man ?
Musk has actually made more like $60bn, I believe
Did you remember to pack the photo of him for your latest trip?
Good job it's laminated, isn't it. All the wear and tear.
My god. Your wounding barbs. I sometimes think you don’t realise the cruel damage you can do, with your casual mastery of the put-down. For you it is just a game, yet what might be a quip to you is a dagger to others
More than once, this morning alone, with your bitter asides you’ve brought me close to tears of shame, and, yes, self hatred
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Far closer to the truth than Leon's starry eyed take.
oh
“Musk had explained his interest in the UK by saying: “You are the mother country of the entirety of the English speaking world, it really matters.””
You need to distinguish between a lie and an opinion.
"My firstborn child died in my arms. I felt his last heartbeat," is not an 'opinion'. And it is denied (angrily) by his ex-wife.
If he lies about his child dying in his arms, what else would he lie about.
"Ah", I hear you say. "She is obviously lying."
Well, if you want another example, his lies about his father owning, or not owning an emerald mine.
There are many, many others.
There are many examples of Starmer lying too, but that's not the point.
If he says he thinks that Britain, as the mother country, matters to the fate of global Anglosphere politics, that's an opinion, not something that can be a lie, unless you suspect that he doesn't really think this, but what is the evidence for that?
You can't just handwave that away. This is a man who lies about his first child dying in his arms. That's the state of the guy you're supporting.
(Worse: as I recall he said it when he was stating why he would not let Alex Jones back on Twix. Guess what? Ales Jones is back on Twix...)
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Far closer to the truth than Leon's starry eyed take.
oh
“Musk had explained his interest in the UK by saying: “You are the mother country of the entirety of the English speaking world, it really matters.””
You need to distinguish between a lie and an opinion.
"My firstborn child died in my arms. I felt his last heartbeat," is not an 'opinion'. And it is denied (angrily) by his ex-wife.
If he lies about his child dying in his arms, what else would he lie about.
"Ah", I hear you say. "She is obviously lying."
Well, if you want another example, his lies about his father owning, or not owning an emerald mine.
There are many, many others.
There are many examples of Starmer lying too, but that's not the point.
If he says he thinks that Britain, as the mother country, matters to the fate of global Anglosphere politics, that's an opinion, not something that can be a lie, unless you suspect that he doesn't really think this, but what is the evidence for that?
You can't just handwave that away. This is a man who lies about his first child dying in his arms. That's the state of the guy you're supporting.
(Worse: as I recall he said it when he was stating why he would not let Alex Jones back on Twix. Guess what? Ales Jones is back on Twix...)
And Joe Biden said he would never pardon his son...
Biden’s decision is the correct one. By ruling out a pardon, he is demonstrating respect for the rule of law. He might also be taking pains not to serve as an enabler for a child who has struggled with drug addiction. Whether he’s motivated by his respect for the law, his desire to see his son take accountability for his actions or a combination of the two, he’s making the right call.
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Far closer to the truth than Leon's starry eyed take.
oh
“Musk had explained his interest in the UK by saying: “You are the mother country of the entirety of the English speaking world, it really matters.””
You need to distinguish between a lie and an opinion.
"My firstborn child died in my arms. I felt his last heartbeat," is not an 'opinion'. And it is denied (angrily) by his ex-wife.
If he lies about his child dying in his arms, what else would he lie about.
"Ah", I hear you say. "She is obviously lying."
Well, if you want another example, his lies about his father owning, or not owning an emerald mine.
There are many, many others.
There are many examples of Starmer lying too, but that's not the point.
If he says he thinks that Britain, as the mother country, matters to the fate of global Anglosphere politics, that's an opinion, not something that can be a lie, unless you suspect that he doesn't really think this, but what is the evidence for that?
You can't just handwave that away. This is a man who lies about his first child dying in his arms. That's the state of the guy you're supporting.
(Worse: as I recall he said it when he was stating why he would not let Alex Jones back on Twix. Guess what? Ales Jones is back on Twix...)
And Joe Biden said he would never pardon his son...
Biden’s decision is the correct one. By ruling out a pardon, he is demonstrating respect for the rule of law. He might also be taking pains not to serve as an enabler for a child who has struggled with drug addiction. Whether he’s motivated by his respect for the law, his desire to see his son take accountability for his actions or a combination of the two, he’s making the right call.
I might suggest to you that lying about your own son dying in your arms is a trifle larger than that.
I also find it extremely worrying that 43% of people occasionally or more often struggle to buy food for their families. That figure should be the priority of the government because 43% means millions of households with reasonable incomes are struggling to make ends meet, not just those on low or fixed incomes.
I don't see how £30bn in price rises and wage freezes from April will help, though.
Those on minimum wage do get a chunky payrise then though.
And those laid off to afford the rise in minimum wage and the ni increase? They don't get a nice payrise
And in any case that pay rise is more than eaten up by the rent increases effected by the government's war on landlords.
OT. Went to post my overseas Christmas cards today and found I could not post to Canada as the Canadian postal service is in its 3rd week of a complete shutdown due to a strike. Reading up on the strke it looks like there are a lot of unhappy Canadians out there at the moment.
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Far closer to the truth than Leon's starry eyed take.
oh
“Musk had explained his interest in the UK by saying: “You are the mother country of the entirety of the English speaking world, it really matters.””
You need to distinguish between a lie and an opinion.
"My firstborn child died in my arms. I felt his last heartbeat," is not an 'opinion'. And it is denied (angrily) by his ex-wife.
If he lies about his child dying in his arms, what else would he lie about.
"Ah", I hear you say. "She is obviously lying."
Well, if you want another example, his lies about his father owning, or not owning an emerald mine.
There are many, many others.
There are many examples of Starmer lying too, but that's not the point.
If he says he thinks that Britain, as the mother country, matters to the fate of global Anglosphere politics, that's an opinion, not something that can be a lie, unless you suspect that he doesn't really think this, but what is the evidence for that?
You can't just handwave that away. This is a man who lies about his first child dying in his arms. That's the state of the guy you're supporting.
(Worse: as I recall he said it when he was stating why he would not let Alex Jones back on Twix. Guess what? Ales Jones is back on Twix...)
And Joe Biden said he would never pardon his son...
Biden’s decision is the correct one. By ruling out a pardon, he is demonstrating respect for the rule of law. He might also be taking pains not to serve as an enabler for a child who has struggled with drug addiction. Whether he’s motivated by his respect for the law, his desire to see his son take accountability for his actions or a combination of the two, he’s making the right call.
I might suggest to you that lying about your own son dying in your arms is a trifle larger than that.
His ex-wife said that she was the one who was holding him. Has she denied that Musk was present? If not then their two stories are compatible.
Farage is probably wise enough not to accept a large donation from Musk, knowing that it's the sort of thing that wouldn't go down well with British voters. It needs to be a bit more subtle than that.
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Far closer to the truth than Leon's starry eyed take.
oh
“Musk had explained his interest in the UK by saying: “You are the mother country of the entirety of the English speaking world, it really matters.””
You need to distinguish between a lie and an opinion.
"My firstborn child died in my arms. I felt his last heartbeat," is not an 'opinion'. And it is denied (angrily) by his ex-wife.
If he lies about his child dying in his arms, what else would he lie about.
"Ah", I hear you say. "She is obviously lying."
Well, if you want another example, his lies about his father owning, or not owning an emerald mine.
There are many, many others.
There are many examples of Starmer lying too, but that's not the point.
If he says he thinks that Britain, as the mother country, matters to the fate of global Anglosphere politics, that's an opinion, not something that can be a lie, unless you suspect that he doesn't really think this, but what is the evidence for that?
You can't just handwave that away. This is a man who lies about his first child dying in his arms. That's the state of the guy you're supporting.
(Worse: as I recall he said it when he was stating why he would not let Alex Jones back on Twix. Guess what? Ales Jones is back on Twix...)
And Joe Biden said he would never pardon his son...
Biden’s decision is the correct one. By ruling out a pardon, he is demonstrating respect for the rule of law. He might also be taking pains not to serve as an enabler for a child who has struggled with drug addiction. Whether he’s motivated by his respect for the law, his desire to see his son take accountability for his actions or a combination of the two, he’s making the right call.
Biden has fucked the Democrats as a “bastion of morality” for years. The Hunter Pardon will be thrown at them every time they attempt to take the high ground on anything, and it will work
Jon Stewart did a brutal and amusing riff on it - you can catch it on YouTube here
I’m sure soon some Tories will actually accept they lost in July and go back to being objective.
Some have and are providing interesting analysis. Others, are not.
I know it hurts now. But you will get over it.
For all sakes I hope your party gets back to being a decent opposition as right now they are nowhere.
May I address this issue
As a former conservative activist, member and voter, [apart from Blair twice], I am relieved the party is out of office and deservedly so
It does not hurt me at all, but what concerns me is that I expected much more from Starmer and it is clear, even to sensible Labour supporters, that he is failing but Labour's difficulties have been compounded by a seriously bad budget from Reeves which prioritised the public sector at the expense of the wealth creators
I am relaxed about Kemi Badenoch, as she has time to develop and eventually put forward new thoughtful policy ideas, but in the meantime Reform and Trump are a very real problem for both parties but maybe more so Labour as Farage has stated Labour are in his sights and ultimately there may be some form of electoral agreement between Reform and the Conservatives
I hope that the conservatives replace the triple lock with an inflation plus 1% rise and increase basic tax to create 25p but abolish NI for workers and increase the allowance to £15,000 to shield the lower paid,
Also something on housing and student loans would be good
The danger is upset Labour supporters brand all opponents as hard right, but that is a mistake as many are certainly not hard right but have a different view on how to encourage growth then the one presently being followed
Is there much movement in the younger vote to Reform yet?
I haven’t noticed any in my younger cohort as yet. But one to watch.
Trump has extraordinary levels of support in young British men - most of these are young men:
One in three British young people would vote for Trump Thirty-two per cent of UK voters aged 18 to 24 would back Republican, a three-fold increase since same polling before 2020 election
Telegraph
This is the backlash against Woke.
Which plenty of bien pensant liberals still haven't woken up to, ironically.
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Far closer to the truth than Leon's starry eyed take.
oh
“Musk had explained his interest in the UK by saying: “You are the mother country of the entirety of the English speaking world, it really matters.””
You need to distinguish between a lie and an opinion.
"My firstborn child died in my arms. I felt his last heartbeat," is not an 'opinion'. And it is denied (angrily) by his ex-wife.
If he lies about his child dying in his arms, what else would he lie about.
"Ah", I hear you say. "She is obviously lying."
Well, if you want another example, his lies about his father owning, or not owning an emerald mine.
There are many, many others.
There are many examples of Starmer lying too, but that's not the point.
If he says he thinks that Britain, as the mother country, matters to the fate of global Anglosphere politics, that's an opinion, not something that can be a lie, unless you suspect that he doesn't really think this, but what is the evidence for that?
You can't just handwave that away. This is a man who lies about his first child dying in his arms. That's the state of the guy you're supporting.
(Worse: as I recall he said it when he was stating why he would not let Alex Jones back on Twix. Guess what? Ales Jones is back on Twix...)
And Joe Biden said he would never pardon his son...
Biden’s decision is the correct one. By ruling out a pardon, he is demonstrating respect for the rule of law. He might also be taking pains not to serve as an enabler for a child who has struggled with drug addiction. Whether he’s motivated by his respect for the law, his desire to see his son take accountability for his actions or a combination of the two, he’s making the right call.
I might suggest to you that lying about your own son dying in your arms is a trifle larger than that.
His ex-wife said that she was the one who was holding him. Has she denied that Musk was present? If not then their two stories are compatible.
No.
"My firstborn child died in my arms. I felt his last heartbeat," is what he said.
her response: “A SIDS-related incident that put him on life support. He was declared brain-dead. And not that it matters to anyone except me, because it is one of the most sacred and defining moments of my life, but I was the one who was holding him.”
OT. Went to post my overseas Christmas cards today and found I could not post to Canada as the Canadian postal service is in its 3rd week of a complete shutdown due to a strike. Reading up on the strke it looks like there are a lot of unhappy Canadians out there at the moment.
I didn't know that as normally I would be doing the same, but fortunately our Canadian daughter in law gave us a quick 2 day visit after a business conferences in Portugal in early October so she took every for Christmas back with her
Tim Montgomerie going to Reform reminds me of the Heritage Foundation going to Trump.
Wholesale shift to the populist right.
Though the consequences might play out differently here, because the system is different.
For a start, MAGA worked by being parasitical on the Republican party. The primary system meant they could take the party over and hollow it out. On top of that, the two party system makes it harder for non-MAGA Republicans to make the big jump to the other side. A few have done it, but mostly in retirement.
So far, Reform haven't been able to take over the Conservatives. Arguably, Jenrick came close, but no cigar. And defections of members, activists and politicians are less rare. If the Conservatives went full Farage, at least some wets would go elsewhere.
So the populist right are stuck with boosting Reform. But for now, that mostly cements Starmer in place by splitting the right vote. That might change eventually, but the tipping point is some way off.
Musk throwing money and noise at something he doesn't fully understand? Surely not.
Yes, poor Musk he only made $15bn off the US election.
Should I forward your name as a wealth adviser to the world's richest man ?
Musk has actually made more like $60bn, I believe
Did you remember to pack the photo of him for your latest trip?
Good job it's laminated, isn't it. All the wear and tear.
My god. Your wounding barbs. I sometimes think you don’t realise the cruel damage you can do, with your casual mastery of the put-down. For you it is just a game, yet what might be a quip to you is a dagger to others
More than once, this morning alone, with your bitter asides you’ve brought me close to tears of shame, and, yes, self hatred
Ok I'll back off now. I don't want to waste bullets on a twitching corpse.
Specifically, solar is now so spectacularly cheap, that it is simply going to supplant the vast majority of fossil fuels, almost irrespective of government diktat.
The problem is that energy use is so elastic. As soon as energy becomes cheaper, we come up with new ways of using the stuff. So it never gets very cheap and fossil fuels remain economical.
Well, I agree that - in the medium term - energy use is pretty elastic. But it's not *that* elastic. Per capita energy consumption in the developed world peaked in the early 1970s.
And I think it's easy to miss just how cheap solar is becoming. If it's a tenth of the price per KwH of energy of gas or oil, then really, how can fossil fuels compete?
They can compete by being more controllable. Solar can't be switched on at will.
Yep, and they'll have a role - particularly gas.
But gas will only be used at night and when the wind isn't blowing.
If solar is so cheap that everything else becomes uneconomic, how will all of that infrastructure be funded?
All of what infrastructure?
The UK has gas peaking plants - OCGTs - that work perhaps 20 hours a year, when the electricity price is at its very highest level.
Modern gas plants are incredibly inexpensive to run. Unlike coal, they are low people, low maintenance, and highly automated.
You said "when the wind isn't blowing". Building and maintaining wind turbines isn't cheap.
Ummm: I thought you were talking about natural gas?
Irrespective, what does the cost of building have to do with anything? If the guy who built the wind turbines doesn't make his cost of capital or goes bust, then the wind turbines still exist, and still generate power.
There are many power plants in the UK that went bust at one point or another, usually due to over-leverage, and then got picked up for pennies on the dollar.
I was talking about everything else in the context of your panglossian view of solar.
The lifespan of a turbine is only about 20-25 years. If they're an essential part of the mix despite solar, then how will the economics stack up if the price of electricity becomes "spectacularly cheap"?
Oh, in the long run, wind doesn't make sense either. I wouldn't be queuing up to invest in wind turbines today.
But here's the chart:
That's solar price per watt over time. Basically, it's dropped by 20% every year. (Wind by contrast has improved by maybe 2%.)
A bet against solar is a bet that that 20% stops. And it might. But you'd be a brave man betting against it.
Should the likes of Spain, Portugal not be building huge wind farms with interconnectors to the rest of Europe?
Build 500%+ of their own electricity needs and become huge energy exporters.
Specifically, solar is now so spectacularly cheap, that it is simply going to supplant the vast majority of fossil fuels, almost irrespective of government diktat.
The problem is that energy use is so elastic. As soon as energy becomes cheaper, we come up with new ways of using the stuff. So it never gets very cheap and fossil fuels remain economical.
Well, I agree that - in the medium term - energy use is pretty elastic. But it's not *that* elastic. Per capita energy consumption in the developed world peaked in the early 1970s.
And I think it's easy to miss just how cheap solar is becoming. If it's a tenth of the price per KwH of energy of gas or oil, then really, how can fossil fuels compete?
They can compete by being more controllable. Solar can't be switched on at will.
Yep, and they'll have a role - particularly gas.
But gas will only be used at night and when the wind isn't blowing.
If solar is so cheap that everything else becomes uneconomic, how will all of that infrastructure be funded?
All of what infrastructure?
The UK has gas peaking plants - OCGTs - that work perhaps 20 hours a year, when the electricity price is at its very highest level.
Modern gas plants are incredibly inexpensive to run. Unlike coal, they are low people, low maintenance, and highly automated.
You said "when the wind isn't blowing". Building and maintaining wind turbines isn't cheap.
Ummm: I thought you were talking about natural gas?
Irrespective, what does the cost of building have to do with anything? If the guy who built the wind turbines doesn't make his cost of capital or goes bust, then the wind turbines still exist, and still generate power.
There are many power plants in the UK that went bust at one point or another, usually due to over-leverage, and then got picked up for pennies on the dollar.
I was talking about everything else in the context of your panglossian view of solar.
The lifespan of a turbine is only about 20-25 years. If they're an essential part of the mix despite solar, then how will the economics stack up if the price of electricity becomes "spectacularly cheap"?
Oh, in the long run, wind doesn't make sense either. I wouldn't be queuing up to invest in wind turbines today.
But here's the chart:
That's solar price per watt over time. Basically, it's dropped by 20% every year. (Wind by contrast has improved by maybe 2%.)
A bet against solar is a bet that that 20% stops. And it might. But you'd be a brave man betting against it.
Should the likes of Spain, Portugal not be building huge wind farms with interconnectors to the rest of Europe?
Build 500%+ of their own electricity needs and become huge energy exporters.
You mean solar?
And yes, they should.
Which implies you don't think domestic solar can be sufficient, otherwise the transport costs wouldn't be worth it.
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Musk has only one dominant thread in his DNA and it's got feck all to do with the UK
He's a full on card carrying fascist Afrikaaner.
He has no place in the UK, should have no role in the UK and is more dangerous than any mad mullah
Ban the fecker.
Blow his satellites out of orbit
Ban his cars.
Ban Twitter
If he won't shut up, put a bounty on his head like Bin Laden.
He is a bigger threat to the globe right now than any other living person.
I do so like to see a measured, balanced contribution to PB.
I think someone forgot to take their dried frog pills today.
I’ve actually EATEN dried frog. It’s not great, TBH
Frogs legs are absolutely great. 've never eaten other frog parts.
I’m sure soon some Tories will actually accept they lost in July and go back to being objective.
Some have and are providing interesting analysis. Others, are not.
I know it hurts now. But you will get over it.
For all sakes I hope your party gets back to being a decent opposition as right now they are nowhere.
May I address this issue
As a former conservative activist, member and voter, [apart from Blair twice], I am relieved the party is out of office and deservedly so
It does not hurt me at all, but what concerns me is that I expected much more from Starmer and it is clear, even to sensible Labour supporters, that he is failing but Labour's difficulties have been compounded by a seriously bad budget from Reeves which prioritised the public sector at the expense of the wealth creators
I am relaxed about Kemi Badenoch, as she has time to develop and eventually put forward new thoughtful policy ideas, but in the meantime Reform and Trump are a very real problem for both parties but maybe more so Labour as Farage has stated Labour are in his sights and ultimately there may be some form of electoral agreement between Reform and the Conservatives
I hope that the conservatives replace the triple lock with an inflation plus 1% rise and increase basic tax to create 25p but abolish NI for workers and increase the allowance to £15,000 to shield the lower paid,
Also something on housing and student loans would be good
The danger is upset Labour supporters brand all opponents as hard right, but that is a mistake as many are certainly not hard right but have a different view on how to encourage growth then the one presently being followed
There are as many in the Tory Party, including a number of defeated Mps who are far closer to the mainstream Labour Party than they are to Farage and Musk
That is patently obvious
They may have to keep Farage out in 2029 by tactically voting against him, as Labour won't destroy the Tory brand, but Farage may well do it.
Assertion: Shecorns88 is a @Leon bot. He's talked about such a thing for a while, but I'm pretty sure he's done it.
Heathener has been mooted. It was not denied. But then there were those who claimed Heathener was Leon.
It's the absolute certainty which is unnerving. Like a lefty HYFUD but with less self-reflection.
Like most bots it never denies.
I’m deeply flattered that you believe I have the multitasking skills to lead my busy life AND create and nurture entire new sock puppet characters on PB
Consider, I am in Santa Marta, Colombia, on the Caribbean coast, I only arrived yesterday (so: major jet lag). Tomorrow I go onwards up the River Maddalena, one of the great rivers of the world
I have just written a piece for the Gazette this morning. I am also mapping out TWO major year-long flint projects, using various assistants, and also reading related books (like W G Sebald). I am also running the general chores of the self employed (taxes, etc), keeping up with friends and family daily and also exploring Colombia for my Gazette Travel piece (and researching the local history). And finally I am arranging trips for earlier next year, including Thailand, Cambodia and Uruguay
Trust me. I do not have time to create bots on PB
Sebald? A rather morose-looking German who gained fame when his novels/travelogues/histories (no-one really knows how to classify them) were translated into English. Interesting guy. Presume you're not following him in a long traipse across the East Anglian badlands?
Farage is probably wise enough not to accept a large donation from Musk, knowing that it's the sort of thing that wouldn't go down well with British voters. It needs to be a bit more subtle than that.
There’s a fascinating article in - IIRC (sorry, jet lag) - the FT about Musk and the UK
Apparently his deep interest in British politics is not just coz he likes arguing on TwiX about Woke. It is because he is of part British descent, and he believes the UK plays a crucial role as the mothership of the English speaking nations, inc the USA. So what happens in Britain “really matters” around the world - his words
I hope he gives Reform a billion quid and they win in 2028
I reckon he just really doesn't like Starmer and is fucking with Labour as much as he can for the lols.
Musk has only one dominant thread in his DNA and it's got feck all to do with the UK
He's a full on card carrying fascist Afrikaaner.
He has no place in the UK, should have no role in the UK and is more dangerous than any mad mullah
Ban the fecker.
Blow his satellites out of orbit
Ban his cars.
Ban Twitter
If he won't shut up, put a bounty on his head like Bin Laden.
He is a bigger threat to the globe right now than any other living person.
I do so like to see a measured, balanced contribution to PB.
I think someone forgot to take their dried frog pills today.
I’ve actually EATEN dried frog. It’s not great, TBH
Frogs legs are absolutely great. 've never eaten other frog parts.
Are they vegan???
Last time I was in a French restaurant I asked the waiter if he had frog's legs. When he said yes, I said "hop over to the bar and get me half a bitter"...
Tim Montgomerie going to Reform reminds me of the Heritage Foundation going to Trump.
Wholesale shift to the populist right.
Though the consequences might play out differently here, because the system is different.
For a start, MAGA worked by being parasitical on the Republican party. The primary system meant they could take the party over and hollow it out. On top of that, the two party system makes it harder for non-MAGA Republicans to make the big jump to the other side. A few have done it, but mostly in retirement.
So far, Reform haven't been able to take over the Conservatives. Arguably, Jenrick came close, but no cigar. And defections of members, activists and politicians are less rare. If the Conservatives went full Farage, at least some wets would go elsewhere.
So the populist right are stuck with boosting Reform. But for now, that mostly cements Starmer in place by splitting the right vote. That might change eventually, but the tipping point is some way off.
Musk throwing money and noise at something he doesn't fully understand? Surely not.
Though there is more. In our long term social democracy what counts is competence not policy (mostly). The Tories, and now it seems Labour, are unstuck on the central competence issue. Do they know not only where they are going, but how they are going to get there without crashing. There is a decent chance that by the end of about 2026 the answer will be No for both Lab and Con.
Reform have, at this moment these things going for them which together make them unique. Much of this is luck: They haven't been in government so are untainted by current insolubilities; they have now received enough votes in real elections to be reckoned with; the wind is blowing thei way (Montgomerie today); they have paper policies (worthless of course but no matter) which are popular and populist; they are - though no-one wants to hear it - boring social democrats + a bit of nationalist populism; there is no other party with their momentum.
Is there much movement in the younger vote to Reform yet?
I haven’t noticed any in my younger cohort as yet. But one to watch.
Trump has extraordinary levels of support in young British men - most of these are young men:
One in three British young people would vote for Trump Thirty-two per cent of UK voters aged 18 to 24 would back Republican, a three-fold increase since same polling before 2020 election
Telegraph
This is the backlash against Woke.
Which plenty of bien pensant liberals still haven't woken up to, ironically.
Not sure that's entirely true for young males. I think they simply look at Trump and Musk and think I'd like to be like them: women, golden escalators, unfathomable wealth and a f*ck you attitude to anyone else. Sir Keir, Sir Ed and the ghost of Rishi Sunak are not terribly compelling alternatives.
I’m sure soon some Tories will actually accept they lost in July and go back to being objective.
Some have and are providing interesting analysis. Others, are not.
I know it hurts now. But you will get over it.
For all sakes I hope your party gets back to being a decent opposition as right now they are nowhere.
May I address this issue
As a former conservative activist, member and voter, [apart from Blair twice], I am relieved the party is out of office and deservedly so
It does not hurt me at all, but what concerns me is that I expected much more from Starmer and it is clear, even to sensible Labour supporters, that he is failing but Labour's difficulties have been compounded by a seriously bad budget from Reeves which prioritised the public sector at the expense of the wealth creators
I am relaxed about Kemi Badenoch, as she has time to develop and eventually put forward new thoughtful policy ideas, but in the meantime Reform and Trump are a very real problem for both parties but maybe more so Labour as Farage has stated Labour are in his sights and ultimately there may be some form of electoral agreement between Reform and the Conservatives
I hope that the conservatives replace the triple lock with an inflation plus 1% rise and increase basic tax to create 25p but abolish NI for workers and increase the allowance to £15,000 to shield the lower paid,
Also something on housing and student loans would be good
The danger is upset Labour supporters brand all opponents as hard right, but that is a mistake as many are certainly not hard right but have a different view on how to encourage growth then the one presently being followed
There are as many in the Tory Party, including a number of defeated Mps who are far closer to the mainstream Labour Party than they are to Farage and Musk
That is patently obvious
They may have to keep Farage out in 2029 by tactically voting against him, as Labour won't destroy the Tory brand, but Farage may well do it.
Better the devil you know.
No - there are some who would join the Lib Dems but very few who would support labour
Specifically, solar is now so spectacularly cheap, that it is simply going to supplant the vast majority of fossil fuels, almost irrespective of government diktat.
The problem is that energy use is so elastic. As soon as energy becomes cheaper, we come up with new ways of using the stuff. So it never gets very cheap and fossil fuels remain economical.
Well, I agree that - in the medium term - energy use is pretty elastic. But it's not *that* elastic. Per capita energy consumption in the developed world peaked in the early 1970s.
And I think it's easy to miss just how cheap solar is becoming. If it's a tenth of the price per KwH of energy of gas or oil, then really, how can fossil fuels compete?
They can compete by being more controllable. Solar can't be switched on at will.
Yep, and they'll have a role - particularly gas.
But gas will only be used at night and when the wind isn't blowing.
If solar is so cheap that everything else becomes uneconomic, how will all of that infrastructure be funded?
All of what infrastructure?
The UK has gas peaking plants - OCGTs - that work perhaps 20 hours a year, when the electricity price is at its very highest level.
Modern gas plants are incredibly inexpensive to run. Unlike coal, they are low people, low maintenance, and highly automated.
You said "when the wind isn't blowing". Building and maintaining wind turbines isn't cheap.
Ummm: I thought you were talking about natural gas?
Irrespective, what does the cost of building have to do with anything? If the guy who built the wind turbines doesn't make his cost of capital or goes bust, then the wind turbines still exist, and still generate power.
There are many power plants in the UK that went bust at one point or another, usually due to over-leverage, and then got picked up for pennies on the dollar.
I was talking about everything else in the context of your panglossian view of solar.
The lifespan of a turbine is only about 20-25 years. If they're an essential part of the mix despite solar, then how will the economics stack up if the price of electricity becomes "spectacularly cheap"?
Oh, in the long run, wind doesn't make sense either. I wouldn't be queuing up to invest in wind turbines today.
But here's the chart:
That's solar price per watt over time. Basically, it's dropped by 20% every year. (Wind by contrast has improved by maybe 2%.)
A bet against solar is a bet that that 20% stops. And it might. But you'd be a brave man betting against it.
Should the likes of Spain, Portugal not be building huge wind farms with interconnectors to the rest of Europe?
Build 500%+ of their own electricity needs and become huge energy exporters.
You mean solar?
And yes, they should.
Yes I meant solar. Realised my mistake too late for the edit button.
I’m sure soon some Tories will actually accept they lost in July and go back to being objective.
Some have and are providing interesting analysis. Others, are not.
I know it hurts now. But you will get over it.
For all sakes I hope your party gets back to being a decent opposition as right now they are nowhere.
May I address this issue
As a former conservative activist, member and voter, [apart from Blair twice], I am relieved the party is out of office and deservedly so
It does not hurt me at all, but what concerns me is that I expected much more from Starmer and it is clear, even to sensible Labour supporters, that he is failing but Labour's difficulties have been compounded by a seriously bad budget from Reeves which prioritised the public sector at the expense of the wealth creators
I am relaxed about Kemi Badenoch, as she has time to develop and eventually put forward new thoughtful policy ideas, but in the meantime Reform and Trump are a very real problem for both parties but maybe more so Labour as Farage has stated Labour are in his sights and ultimately there may be some form of electoral agreement between Reform and the Conservatives
I hope that the conservatives replace the triple lock with an inflation plus 1% rise and increase basic tax to create 25p but abolish NI for workers and increase the allowance to £15,000 to shield the lower paid,
Also something on housing and student loans would be good
The danger is upset Labour supporters brand all opponents as hard right, but that is a mistake as many are certainly not hard right but have a different view on how to encourage growth then the one presently being followed
There are as many in the Tory Party, including a number of defeated Mps who are far closer to the mainstream Labour Party than they are to Farage and Musk
That is patently obvious
They may have to keep Farage out in 2029 by tactically voting against him, as Labour won't destroy the Tory brand, but Farage may well do it.
Better the devil you know.
No - there are some who would join the Lib Dems but very few who would support labour
I agree. Tory loathing of Labour has returned in force, there will be vanishingly few Tory-Labour switchers
Assertion: Shecorns88 is a @Leon bot. He's talked about such a thing for a while, but I'm pretty sure he's done it.
Heathener has been mooted. It was not denied. But then there were those who claimed Heathener was Leon.
It's the absolute certainty which is unnerving. Like a lefty HYFUD but with less self-reflection.
Like most bots it never denies.
I’m deeply flattered that you believe I have the multitasking skills to lead my busy life AND create and nurture entire new sock puppet characters on PB
Consider, I am in Santa Marta, Colombia, on the Caribbean coast, I only arrived yesterday (so: major jet lag). Tomorrow I go onwards up the River Maddalena, one of the great rivers of the world
I have just written a piece for the Gazette this morning. I am also mapping out TWO major year-long flint projects, using various assistants, and also reading related books (like W G Sebald). I am also running the general chores of the self employed (taxes, etc), keeping up with friends and family daily and also exploring Colombia for my Gazette Travel piece (and researching the local history). And finally I am arranging trips for earlier next year, including Thailand, Cambodia and Uruguay
Trust me. I do not have time to create bots on PB
Sebald? A rather morose-looking German who gained fame when his novels/travelogues/histories (no-one really knows how to classify them) were translated into English. Interesting guy. Presume you're not following him in a long traipse across the East Anglian badlands?
Thinking of writing something in a sebaldian style
Strikes me that his style kinda died with him, and he only used it once, properly, in Rings of Saturn
Comments
William Roche, well known womaniser in his heyday, but nothing illegal. All of a sudden stories came of his doing all sorts of bad things, all turned out to be absolutely false. CPS took it all the way to court and were laughed out of their because they did do basic checks.
Jimmy Saville...after the original programme ran, quite a few people gave stories to the papers that were debunked by the guy who did the original programme e.g. incorrect details about the car they said he abused them in etc.
Wallace clearly behaved inappropriately, the weight of evidence overwhelming, and it seems like complaints weren't dealt with. Now we are getting more serious allegations, but they are allegations.
I know Labour supporters are trying to console themselves that in time their fortunes will change, but that would only be possible if Reeves hadn't produced the most extraordinary anti growth budget that is already being seen in falling business confidence and consumer spending
It is also silly to attribute the country’s mood to the 'tory press' when most do not read newspapers, but they certainly are not motivated by Starmer lacks any form of charisma and simply is not a politician much like Sunak.
Here in Wales Labour have the fight of their lives to hold on to the Senedd in 2026 and the most recent poll sees them lose 13% and are below Plaid and level with Reform which is a real wake up call for them
Also in Scotland, Reform are a real threat to both labour and conservatives and the red wall in England looks very difficult for them as well
It is understandable Labour supporters try to deflect from their plight but all the polling, surveys and business comments, indicate that this could be a very long period of unpopularity for the party that has such a huge majority
I would say, for all the cricism, Sunak was right to go early as the conservatives had no prospects of overcoming the desire for change and it is all about making difficult but correct decisions but Labour have done neither so far
The hard/populist/far right is on the march with the young across the West. Britain is not an exception, merely a latecomer. See the support for the AfD and Le Pen, ditto Trump
It makes a lot of sense, once young people realise that mass migration makes buying a house much harder they switch; men get there quicker because they already feel cheated; eventually young women follow when they realise mass migration makes streets less safe
Mastertwat
[Before anyone flags me, this is a reference]
I think someone forgot to take their dried frog pills today.
I'm not really capable of it myself, so others will need to pick up the slack.
They don’t tend to ban bond villains’ products though. Or perhaps they do but the franchise doesn’t tend to linger on the inner workings of the HSE or the European Commission.
Thatcher was far more unpopular after 12 months than Starmer is now.
Whatever one's views of her politics were, she had a knack of peaking at the right time of every electoral cycle.
No reason why Starmer can't do the same.
I would wager now that 50% of the Tory vote would vote Labour in 2029 If Farage was the main opposition.
Citation required
For a start, MAGA worked by being parasitical on the Republican party. The primary system meant they could take the party over and hollow it out. On top of that, the two party system makes it harder for non-MAGA Republicans to make the big jump to the other side. A few have done it, but mostly in retirement.
So far, Reform haven't been able to take over the Conservatives. Arguably, Jenrick came close, but no cigar. And defections of members, activists and politicians are less rare. If the Conservatives went full Farage, at least some wets would go elsewhere.
So the populist right are stuck with boosting Reform. But for now, that mostly cements Starmer in place by splitting the right vote. That might change eventually, but the tipping point is some way off.
Musk throwing money and noise at something he doesn't fully understand? Surely not.
Labour probably have the better outlook right now because they're in government so it's measurably easier for them to control their own destiny. The Tories aren't going to start rebuilding until such point as they're able to put meat on the bones in terms of policy, outlook, approach etc. At the moment they are struggling to say much of relevance, though that's no difference with any party that has just lost power at this stage in the cycle and I don't think that can really be laid at Badenoch's door. In a couple of year's time, things will be much clearer.
But watch Reform. I am absolutely convinced that the circumstances exist to potentially turn them into a major force in British politics - not something I want, but something I can very easily see happening. Nothing is set in stone yet, but the sense of disillusionment in the country with Lab/Con is palpable and that is exactly the fertile ground Farage needs to grow and develop his brand. His laziness may stop him, but it feels like he has some better administrators behind him now.
Assertion: Shecorns88 is a @Leon bot. He's talked about such a thing for a while, but I'm pretty sure he's done it.
Indeed tactical voting against Labour may well start to become apparent in locals and certainly in the Welsh and Scottish elections in 2026
Bad news is that we're probably more siloed than is entirely good for us.
Dried frog is on a different level of horror, omfg
THAT said I ate something recently on my travels which was the worst thing ever to enter my mouth - AND I’VE FORGOTTEN WHAT IT WAS
AAAARGH
I’ve just had too many experiences recently. I’ve been to
NO WAIT I’VE REMEMBERED
Salmon candy. A form of very sweet sugary salmon, like jerky but with salmon and sweetness. Had it in Vancouver Food Market
WORSE THAN DRIED FROG
Professor Chris Whitty
@CMO_England
Influenza is now rising rapidly. Antiviral 'flu medicines can now be used in primary care.
https://x.com/CMO_England/status/1863948139209662916
The Honourable Member for Mar A Lago will vanish up Trumps backside the minute the tide turns
It's the absolute certainty which is unnerving. Like a lefty HYFUD but with less self-reflection.
Like most bots it never denies.
Of course it could be a ploy but Heathener wrote more than just random sentences.
Should I forward your name as a wealth adviser to the world's richest man ?
If he lies about his child dying in his arms, what else would he lie about.
"Ah", I hear you say. "She is obviously lying."
Well, if you want another example, his lies about his father owning, or not owning an emerald mine.
There are many, many others.
She was very controversial and certainly did not share my politics but when I was desperately ill last year she was truly kind and considerate to me and she showed a very different personality
The present @Shecorns88 is simply too sycophantic to be real
Some have and are providing interesting analysis. Others, are not.
I know it hurts now. But you will get over it.
For all sakes I hope your party gets back to being a decent opposition as right now they are nowhere.
Should we forward your name to the admissions tutor for Comprehension Studies at the University of Life?
Consider, I am in Santa Marta, Colombia, on the Caribbean coast, I only arrived yesterday (so: major jet lag). Tomorrow I go onwards up the River Maddalena, one of the great rivers of the world
I have just written a piece for the Gazette this morning. I am also mapping out TWO major year-long flint projects, using various assistants, and also reading related books (like W G Sebald). I am also running the general chores of the self employed (taxes, etc), keeping up with friends and family daily and also exploring Colombia for my Gazette Travel piece (and researching the local history). And finally I am arranging trips for earlier next year, including Thailand, Cambodia and Uruguay
Trust me. I do not have time to create bots on PB
The same old stupid arguments, yet again.
Good job it's laminated, isn't it. All the wear and tear.
If he says he thinks that Britain, as the mother country, matters to the fate of global Anglosphere politics, that's an opinion, not something that can be a lie, unless you suspect that he doesn't really think this, but what is the evidence for that?
I'm in serious need of some new coding.
More than once, this morning alone, with your bitter asides you’ve brought me close to tears of shame, and, yes, self hatred
(Worse: as I recall he said it when he was stating why he would not let Alex Jones back on Twix. Guess what? Ales Jones is back on Twix...)
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/hunter-biden-pardon-joe-biden-conviction-rcna156597
Biden’s decision is the correct one. By ruling out a pardon, he is demonstrating respect for the rule of law. He might also be taking pains not to serve as an enabler for a child who has struggled with drug addiction. Whether he’s motivated by his respect for the law, his desire to see his son take accountability for his actions or a combination of the two, he’s making the right call.
Jon Stewart did a brutal and amusing riff on it - you can catch it on YouTube here
https://youtu.be/V5BcIHPMAHw?si=F81v4mbA0LUGcPU9
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/12/03/gregg-wallace-accused-touching-womans-bottom-claims/
As a former conservative activist, member and voter, [apart from Blair twice], I am relieved the party is out of office and deservedly so
It does not hurt me at all, but what concerns me is that I expected much more from Starmer and it is clear, even to sensible Labour supporters, that he is failing but Labour's difficulties have been compounded by a seriously bad budget from Reeves which prioritised the public sector at the expense of the wealth creators
I am relaxed about Kemi Badenoch, as she has time to develop and eventually put forward new thoughtful policy ideas, but in the meantime Reform and Trump are a very real problem for both parties but maybe more so Labour as Farage has stated Labour are in his sights and ultimately there may be some form of electoral agreement between Reform and the Conservatives
I hope that the conservatives replace the triple lock with an inflation plus 1% rise and increase basic tax to create 25p but abolish NI for workers and increase the allowance to £15,000 to shield the lower paid,
Also something on housing and student loans would be good
The danger is upset Labour supporters brand all opponents as hard right, but that is a mistake as many are certainly not hard right but have a different view on how to encourage growth then the one presently being followed
https://x.com/timesradio/status/1864014310743163226
Which plenty of bien pensant liberals still haven't woken up to, ironically.
"My firstborn child died in my arms. I felt his last heartbeat," is what he said.
her response:
“A SIDS-related incident that put him on life support. He was declared brain-dead. And not that it matters to anyone except me, because it is one of the most sacred and defining moments of my life, but I was the one who was holding him.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/justine-musk-elon-musk-dying-son-b2234938.html
It is hard to reconcile those views. I'd also point out that using that tragedy as an excuse not to do something he did anyway, is quite something.
And yes, they should.
What's going on?
That is patently obvious
They may have to keep Farage out in 2029 by tactically voting against him, as Labour won't destroy the Tory brand, but Farage may well do it.
Better the devil you know.
Musk is repulsive to the vast majority
What a bizarre little drama
I'll get my coat...
Reform have, at this moment these things going for them which together make them unique. Much of this is luck: They haven't been in government so are untainted by current insolubilities; they have now received enough votes in real elections to be reckoned with; the wind is blowing thei way (Montgomerie today); they have paper policies (worthless of course but no matter) which are popular and populist; they are - though no-one wants to hear it - boring social democrats + a bit of nationalist populism; there is no other party with their momentum.
Only shocking thing is that he didn't make the jump a decade ago.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c24n31e4jj2o
Strikes me that his style kinda died with him, and he only used it once, properly, in Rings of Saturn
Worth reviving and evolving