Will Elon Musk be proven right? – politicalbetting.com
Will Elon Musk be proven right? – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.2 -
Second0
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First!1
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I think Reform are getting their act together using the Lib Dems as their model.
The Betfair price of 4.4 for Reform for most seats at the next election I think is about right.0 -
In an election with, say, four parties on around 20% of the vote (Labour, Tories, Reform and Lib Dems) the outcome with the FPTP voting system would be pretty chaotic and unpredictable, and the voters who didn't want Reform might end up with them anyway.PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.2 -
Reform are getting more serious by some accounts, to build things up beyond just getting some MPs. If they can avoid implosion from infighting they could remain a force.0
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You don't, but you do need more than 30% even if the rest of the vote is scattered and I think Reform will hit the ceiling before that. And also they will get a lot of tactical voting against - even I would vote Tory without a moment's hesitation if it kept Reform out.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
That doesn't mean they can't win a significant number of seats, but not enough to win overall.0 -
If Kemi seriously fails to connect, it's a distinct possibility.PJH said:
You don't, but you do need more than 30% even if the rest of the vote is scattered and I think Reform will hit the ceiling before that. And also they will get a lot of tactical voting against - even I would vote Tory without a moment's hesitation if it kept Reform out.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
That doesn't mean they can't win a significant number of seats, but not enough to win overall.0 -
Red wall and Scotland are quite fertile for Reform and this from Sheffield last night was interestingPJH said:
You don't, but you do need more than 30% even if the rest of the vote is scattered and I think Reform will hit the ceiling before that. And also they will get a lot of tactical voting against - even I would vote Tory without a moment's hesitation if it kept Reform out.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
That doesn't mean they can't win a significant number of seats, but not enough to win overall.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1862293074447130939?t=fHGlvMJksbxEKGfLuyaRuA&s=190 -
S Korean version of NLAW is massively superior (around double the speed, range and armour penetration).
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT-1K_Raybolt2 -
Most of the voters don't want the current Government.LostPassword said:
In an election with, say, four parties on around 20% of the vote (Labour, Tories, Reform and Lib Dems) the outcome with the FPTP voting system would be pretty chaotic and unpredictable, and the voters who didn't want Reform might end up with them anyway.PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
We have a system which virtually guarantees that will normally be the case.4 -
It really wasn't, it was local factors.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Red wall and Scotland are quite fertile for Reform and this from Sheffield last night was interestingPJH said:
You don't, but you do need more than 30% even if the rest of the vote is scattered and I think Reform will hit the ceiling before that. And also they will get a lot of tactical voting against - even I would vote Tory without a moment's hesitation if it kept Reform out.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
That doesn't mean they can't win a significant number of seats, but not enough to win overall.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1862293074447130939?t=fHGlvMJksbxEKGfLuyaRuA&s=19
I don't think you or anyone including the Election Maps have mentioned the Labour councillor who won the seat and died triggering the by election hadn't been a Labour councillor for the last year I think, there's been a lot of infighting.
All about the trees.
Also UKIP or BXP did well here in 2019.1 -
Seems more like a Javelin than an NLAWNigelb said:S Korean version of NLAW is massively superior (around double the speed, range and armour penetration).
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT-1K_Raybolt1 -
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1862527883895337265
Unverified Reports that Russian Military Command Syria has ordered all Forces in the Northern Governorates of Aleppo and Idlib, to Withdraw away from the ongoing Rebel Offensive and towards the South.
We may now be witnessing the near Total Collapse of the Syrian Arab Army and Pro-Regime Militias in the Northwest of the Country; with the City of Aleppo expected to likely fall to Opposition Forces in the next few hours, as both the Russians and Iranians appear to be in Chaos.0 -
Two of our local Conservative councillors have today defected to Reform.0
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And nearly twice as heavy. More a javelin competitor from what I can tell.Nigelb said:S Korean version of NLAW is massively superior (around double the speed, range and armour penetration).
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT-1K_Raybolt1 -
It was interesting and hence your comments but Reform vote was hugeTheScreamingEagles said:
It really wasn't, it was local factors.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Red wall and Scotland are quite fertile for Reform and this from Sheffield last night was interestingPJH said:
You don't, but you do need more than 30% even if the rest of the vote is scattered and I think Reform will hit the ceiling before that. And also they will get a lot of tactical voting against - even I would vote Tory without a moment's hesitation if it kept Reform out.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
That doesn't mean they can't win a significant number of seats, but not enough to win overall.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1862293074447130939?t=fHGlvMJksbxEKGfLuyaRuA&s=19
I don't think you or anyone including the Election Maps have mentioned the Labour councillor who won the seat and died triggering the by election hadn't been a Labour councillor for the last year I think, there's been a lot of infighting.
All about the trees.
Also UKIP or BXP did well here in 2019.0 -
On topic, the fact that Reform are only 7/2 to win most seats is both absolutely extraordinary and also about right, IMO.
'Most seats', of course, does not mean they 'win' the election - a point Musk struggled to cope with in relation to Austria recently. If Reform did win most seats, it would place Badenoch (or her replacement) in an extremely difficult position but we shouldn't assume they would necessarily back Farage into No 10. That said, I think it would be the only choice that might preserve the Tory Party, so they might well.
Reform could easily reach 25%, which was where the Brexit Party peaked in 2019, and might get into the 30s in the polls if events run their way. Even a low 30s score could see them take most seats with the right split elsewhere.
How they'd manage under scrutiny is open to question but as Trump and various European equivalents have shown, what were once barring offences to political office are now at worst embarrassments and at best (for them) positive assets.
Chances are the cards won't fall their way, or they'll mess up, or the mainstream will deliver sufficiently to put a much lower ceiling on their support, but it's easy enough to see how they do break through.
Jenkyns defection is quite a big moment though. Reform need to win that election now - but if they *do* win that election, it reinforces their status as a major player.2 -
Interesting. Still a drip not a flood, but keeps a little momentum.Fairliered said:Two of our local Conservative councillors have today defected to Reform.
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I note this was used by the Saudis in Yemen. To kill what?! Seems like overkill vs. Toyota hilux!Nigelb said:S Korean version of NLAW is massively superior (around double the speed, range and armour penetration).
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT-1K_Raybolt
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Looks like Iran has lost a major route for getting arms into Hezbollah and Hamas.
https://x.com/aliostad/status/1862530111255265448?s=613 -
Woodhouse is next door to Orgreave/Manvers, it the sort of place where people who tried to burn asylum seekers live.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It was interesting and hence your comments but Reform vote was hugeTheScreamingEagles said:
It really wasn't, it was local factors.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Red wall and Scotland are quite fertile for Reform and this from Sheffield last night was interestingPJH said:
You don't, but you do need more than 30% even if the rest of the vote is scattered and I think Reform will hit the ceiling before that. And also they will get a lot of tactical voting against - even I would vote Tory without a moment's hesitation if it kept Reform out.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
That doesn't mean they can't win a significant number of seats, but not enough to win overall.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1862293074447130939?t=fHGlvMJksbxEKGfLuyaRuA&s=19
I don't think you or anyone including the Election Maps have mentioned the Labour councillor who won the seat and died triggering the by election hadn't been a Labour councillor for the last year I think, there's been a lot of infighting.
All about the trees.
Also UKIP or BXP did well here in 2019.0 -
Absolutely delighted that assisted dying has passed this initial hurdle in the Commons, something I've supported for decades and glad this is a liberalisation that is belatedly happening.
Would like to see amendments in the Commons now, such as removing the 6 month restriction and enabling it for anyone who so expresses a desire even if not terminal such as people living in agony who could be trapped that way for years as has been discussed previously in the Courts.
Hopefully as it moves on more people will realise that assisted dying is NOT "suicide" and stop artificially conflating the two.2 -
Taken the day off today to go for a walk with a friend and his dog around the reservoirs of Longdendale Three hours if fresh air, exercise and conversation with a mate is one of the best miod lifters thete is. And the Dark Peak is absolutely at its best this time of year.5
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And also... Reform didn't actually win.TheScreamingEagles said:
It really wasn't, it was local factors.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Red wall and Scotland are quite fertile for Reform and this from Sheffield last night was interestingPJH said:
You don't, but you do need more than 30% even if the rest of the vote is scattered and I think Reform will hit the ceiling before that. And also they will get a lot of tactical voting against - even I would vote Tory without a moment's hesitation if it kept Reform out.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
That doesn't mean they can't win a significant number of seats, but not enough to win overall.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1862293074447130939?t=fHGlvMJksbxEKGfLuyaRuA&s=19
I don't think you or anyone including the Election Maps have mentioned the Labour councillor who won the seat and died triggering the by election hadn't been a Labour councillor for the last year I think, there's been a lot of infighting.
All about the trees.
Also UKIP or BXP did well here in 2019.
Nearly but not quite might be repeated a lot. As others have pointed out, with the vote split multiple ways FPTP could be a bit of a lottery. I thought that at the last election, but in fact there were very few seats where the electorate didn't coalesce around the top two. The question we will have to work out over time is whether Reform are in the top two often enough, and whether moderate Tories will vote for Reform or prefer one of the other parties to beat Labour, and whether many Labour voters will hold their noses and vote Tory.1 -
Assisted dying. House of Lords reform.
No link whatsoever!3 -
Are we talking here about the byelection where the Lib Dem candidate won the seat from Labour?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It was interesting and hence your comments but Reform vote was hugeTheScreamingEagles said:
It really wasn't, it was local factors.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Red wall and Scotland are quite fertile for Reform and this from Sheffield last night was interestingPJH said:
You don't, but you do need more than 30% even if the rest of the vote is scattered and I think Reform will hit the ceiling before that. And also they will get a lot of tactical voting against - even I would vote Tory without a moment's hesitation if it kept Reform out.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
That doesn't mean they can't win a significant number of seats, but not enough to win overall.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1862293074447130939?t=fHGlvMJksbxEKGfLuyaRuA&s=19
I don't think you or anyone including the Election Maps have mentioned the Labour councillor who won the seat and died triggering the by election hadn't been a Labour councillor for the last year I think, there's been a lot of infighting.
All about the trees.
Also UKIP or BXP did well here in 2019.
Perhaps all those voters who hate Reform will vote Lib Dem next time? Just to be on the safe side.....0 -
If you want to enable it for anyone who so expresses a desire, how is that not suicide?BartholomewRoberts said:Absolutely delighted that assisted dying has passed this initial hurdle in the Commons, something I've supported for decades and glad this is a liberalisation that is belatedly happening.
Would like to see amendments in the Commons now, such as removing the 6 month restriction and enabling it for anyone who so expresses a desire even if not terminal such as people living in agony who could be trapped that way for years as has been discussed previously in the Courts.
Hopefully as it moves on more people will realise that assisted dying is NOT "suicide" and stop artificially conflating the two.1 -
It seems unlikely though, the LDs have struggled to break through the barrier and they attract tactical voters from left and right. Reform would have to displace the Conservatives or attract another swathe of Labour voters.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
Even distribution of votes isn't much use to them in winning seats.0 -
The Reform vote actually looks to be quite efficient as soon as they cross a certain threshold. They could go from 5 seats to 100 seats quite easily while only adding a few percent to their popular vote total.Dopermean said:
It seems unlikely though, the LDs have struggled to break through the barrier and they attract tactical voters from left and right. Reform would have to displace the Conservatives or attract another swathe of Labour voters.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
Even distribution of votes isn't much use to them in winning seats.1 -
I find enthusiasm for assisted dying a bit odd. I can accept that under some circumstances it might be the least bad option.BartholomewRoberts said:Absolutely delighted that assisted dying has passed this initial hurdle in the Commons, something I've supported for decades and glad this is a liberalisation that is belatedly happening.
Would like to see amendments in the Commons now, such as removing the 6 month restriction and enabling it for anyone who so expresses a desire even if not terminal such as people living in agony who could be trapped that way for years as has been discussed previously in the Courts.
Hopefully as it moves on more people will realise that assisted dying is NOT "suicide" and stop artificially conflating the two.
I am slightly worried by anyone expressing utter certainty on one side or other of this argument.
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Everyone dies.williamglenn said:
If you want to enable it for anyone who so expresses a desire, how is that not suicide?BartholomewRoberts said:Absolutely delighted that assisted dying has passed this initial hurdle in the Commons, something I've supported for decades and glad this is a liberalisation that is belatedly happening.
Would like to see amendments in the Commons now, such as removing the 6 month restriction and enabling it for anyone who so expresses a desire even if not terminal such as people living in agony who could be trapped that way for years as has been discussed previously in the Courts.
Hopefully as it moves on more people will realise that assisted dying is NOT "suicide" and stop artificially conflating the two.
Suicide is generally an impulsive decision to end one's life often taken without discussion with anyone else, or any safeguards, potentially during a mental snap.
Assisted dying is a clinical, deliberate, cold and considered end to life.
They are not remotely the same thing.0 -
Reform displacing the Conservatives while attracting a modicum of ex-Labour support seems very plausible to me. Then add in the fact that Reform can clearly claim to be the party of the frustrated/tear down the system.Dopermean said:
It seems unlikely though, the LDs have struggled to break through the barrier and they attract tactical voters from left and right. Reform would have to displace the Conservatives or attract another swathe of Labour voters.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
Even distribution of votes isn't much use to them in winning seats.0 -
Some of them do seem like wronguns:Cookie said:
I find enthusiasm for assisted dying a bit odd. I can accept that under some circumstances it might be the least bad option.BartholomewRoberts said:Absolutely delighted that assisted dying has passed this initial hurdle in the Commons, something I've supported for decades and glad this is a liberalisation that is belatedly happening.
Would like to see amendments in the Commons now, such as removing the 6 month restriction and enabling it for anyone who so expresses a desire even if not terminal such as people living in agony who could be trapped that way for years as has been discussed previously in the Courts.
Hopefully as it moves on more people will realise that assisted dying is NOT "suicide" and stop artificially conflating the two.
I am slightly worried by anyone expressing utter certainty on one side or other of this argument.
"‘She's still alive’: First Sarco suicide pod user ‘found with strangulation marks’ as boss remains in custody"
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/shes-still-alive-sarco-suicide-pod-user-found-strangulation-marks-boss-custody/1 -
I'm not sure, psephologically, that would be 'on the safe side'.ClippP said:
Are we talking here about the byelection where the Lib Dem candidate won the seat from Labour?Big_G_NorthWales said:
It was interesting and hence your comments but Reform vote was hugeTheScreamingEagles said:
It really wasn't, it was local factors.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Red wall and Scotland are quite fertile for Reform and this from Sheffield last night was interestingPJH said:
You don't, but you do need more than 30% even if the rest of the vote is scattered and I think Reform will hit the ceiling before that. And also they will get a lot of tactical voting against - even I would vote Tory without a moment's hesitation if it kept Reform out.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
That doesn't mean they can't win a significant number of seats, but not enough to win overall.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1862293074447130939?t=fHGlvMJksbxEKGfLuyaRuA&s=19
I don't think you or anyone including the Election Maps have mentioned the Labour councillor who won the seat and died triggering the by election hadn't been a Labour councillor for the last year I think, there's been a lot of infighting.
All about the trees.
Also UKIP or BXP did well here in 2019.
Perhaps all those voters who hate Reform will vote Lib Dem next time? Just to be on the safe side.....
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Why?Cookie said:
I find enthusiasm for assisted dying a bit odd. I can accept that under some circumstances it might be the least bad option.BartholomewRoberts said:Absolutely delighted that assisted dying has passed this initial hurdle in the Commons, something I've supported for decades and glad this is a liberalisation that is belatedly happening.
Would like to see amendments in the Commons now, such as removing the 6 month restriction and enabling it for anyone who so expresses a desire even if not terminal such as people living in agony who could be trapped that way for years as has been discussed previously in the Courts.
Hopefully as it moves on more people will realise that assisted dying is NOT "suicide" and stop artificially conflating the two.
I am slightly worried by anyone expressing utter certainty on one side or other of this argument.
I don't want to die, but I want to have that choice if the situation is right that it requires it.
There is no certainty in my eyes as to when I would or would not make that choice, but I do have utter certainty that the decision should be my own and not someone else. If you don't agree with it, just don't do it.2 -
For me the joy comes from knowing that soon no one will have to go through what some of my relatives went through.Cookie said:
I find enthusiasm for assisted dying a bit odd. I can accept that under some circumstances it might be the least bad option.BartholomewRoberts said:Absolutely delighted that assisted dying has passed this initial hurdle in the Commons, something I've supported for decades and glad this is a liberalisation that is belatedly happening.
Would like to see amendments in the Commons now, such as removing the 6 month restriction and enabling it for anyone who so expresses a desire even if not terminal such as people living in agony who could be trapped that way for years as has been discussed previously in the Courts.
Hopefully as it moves on more people will realise that assisted dying is NOT "suicide" and stop artificially conflating the two.
I am slightly worried by anyone expressing utter certainty on one side or other of this argument.
C'Mon Labour. Legalise drugs next pls.1 -
Somewhere between the two, but yes, probably closer to the Javelin.MightyAlex said:
Seems more like a Javelin than an NLAWNigelb said:S Korean version of NLAW is massively superior (around double the speed, range and armour penetration).
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT-1K_Raybolt
A bit more portable, though.0 -
Someone pray for Tulsi Gabbard in this trying time. Her friend Bashar is going through it right nowwilliamglenn said:https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1862527883895337265
Unverified Reports that Russian Military Command Syria has ordered all Forces in the Northern Governorates of Aleppo and Idlib, to Withdraw away from the ongoing Rebel Offensive and towards the South.
We may now be witnessing the near Total Collapse of the Syrian Arab Army and Pro-Regime Militias in the Northwest of the Country; with the City of Aleppo expected to likely fall to Opposition Forces in the next few hours, as both the Russians and Iranians appear to be in Chaos.
https://x.com/Blake_Allen13/status/18625293007815475490 -
But it goes against your core beliefs to need permission from the state to do it.BartholomewRoberts said:
Why?Cookie said:
I find enthusiasm for assisted dying a bit odd. I can accept that under some circumstances it might be the least bad option.BartholomewRoberts said:Absolutely delighted that assisted dying has passed this initial hurdle in the Commons, something I've supported for decades and glad this is a liberalisation that is belatedly happening.
Would like to see amendments in the Commons now, such as removing the 6 month restriction and enabling it for anyone who so expresses a desire even if not terminal such as people living in agony who could be trapped that way for years as has been discussed previously in the Courts.
Hopefully as it moves on more people will realise that assisted dying is NOT "suicide" and stop artificially conflating the two.
I am slightly worried by anyone expressing utter certainty on one side or other of this argument.
I don't want to die, but I want to have that choice if the situation is right that it requires it.
There is no certainty in my eyes as to when I would or would not make that choice, but I do have utter certainty that the decision should be my own and not someone else. If you don't agree with it, just don't do it.0 -
Ed Miliband must be planning an intervention...Nigelb said:
Someone pray for Tulsi Gabbard in this trying time. Her friend Bashar is going through it right nowwilliamglenn said:https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1862527883895337265
Unverified Reports that Russian Military Command Syria has ordered all Forces in the Northern Governorates of Aleppo and Idlib, to Withdraw away from the ongoing Rebel Offensive and towards the South.
We may now be witnessing the near Total Collapse of the Syrian Arab Army and Pro-Regime Militias in the Northwest of the Country; with the City of Aleppo expected to likely fall to Opposition Forces in the next few hours, as both the Russians and Iranians appear to be in Chaos.
https://x.com/Blake_Allen13/status/18625293007815475490 -
They are up to 40 by the lists I can see.Fairliered said:Two of our local Conservative councillors have today defected to Reform.
So 2 more means they have caught up on the Ashfield Independents !0 -
I hope this Syrian opposition is less objectionable than the last one.Nigelb said:
Someone pray for Tulsi Gabbard in this trying time. Her friend Bashar is going through it right nowwilliamglenn said:https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1862527883895337265
Unverified Reports that Russian Military Command Syria has ordered all Forces in the Northern Governorates of Aleppo and Idlib, to Withdraw away from the ongoing Rebel Offensive and towards the South.
We may now be witnessing the near Total Collapse of the Syrian Arab Army and Pro-Regime Militias in the Northwest of the Country; with the City of Aleppo expected to likely fall to Opposition Forces in the next few hours, as both the Russians and Iranians appear to be in Chaos.
https://x.com/Blake_Allen13/status/18625293007815475491 -
Perhaps moderate Tories will prefer Labour to Reform?PJH said:
And also... Reform didn't actually win.TheScreamingEagles said:
It really wasn't, it was local factors.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Red wall and Scotland are quite fertile for Reform and this from Sheffield last night was interestingPJH said:
You don't, but you do need more than 30% even if the rest of the vote is scattered and I think Reform will hit the ceiling before that. And also they will get a lot of tactical voting against - even I would vote Tory without a moment's hesitation if it kept Reform out.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
That doesn't mean they can't win a significant number of seats, but not enough to win overall.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1862293074447130939?t=fHGlvMJksbxEKGfLuyaRuA&s=19
I don't think you or anyone including the Election Maps have mentioned the Labour councillor who won the seat and died triggering the by election hadn't been a Labour councillor for the last year I think, there's been a lot of infighting.
All about the trees.
Also UKIP or BXP did well here in 2019.
Nearly but not quite might be repeated a lot. As others have pointed out, with the vote split multiple ways FPTP could be a bit of a lottery. I thought that at the last election, but in fact there were very few seats where the electorate didn't coalesce around the top two. The question we will have to work out over time is whether Reform are in the top two often enough, and whether moderate Tories will vote for Reform or prefer one of the other parties to beat Labour, and whether many Labour voters will hold their noses and vote Tory.
A centre/centre left party looking to run a mixed market economy with provision of public services versus a hard right party that incites racial hatred and would be utterly useless at governing the country or even a small parish.0 -
Can you not see any downsides though? The subtle pressure not to be a burden? The damage to the Hippocratic Oath - which has always been a moderatly successful principle on which to practice medicine? The potential for poor decisions? And I don't think you're right about suicide - it's often not an impulsive thing but something soneone has wanted to do for some time but hasn't been able to muster the courage. Lowering the bar to death will certainly see the suicidal take advantage.BartholomewRoberts said:
Why?Cookie said:
I find enthusiasm for assisted dying a bit odd. I can accept that under some circumstances it might be the least bad option.BartholomewRoberts said:Absolutely delighted that assisted dying has passed this initial hurdle in the Commons, something I've supported for decades and glad this is a liberalisation that is belatedly happening.
Would like to see amendments in the Commons now, such as removing the 6 month restriction and enabling it for anyone who so expresses a desire even if not terminal such as people living in agony who could be trapped that way for years as has been discussed previously in the Courts.
Hopefully as it moves on more people will realise that assisted dying is NOT "suicide" and stop artificially conflating the two.
I am slightly worried by anyone expressing utter certainty on one side or other of this argument.
I don't want to die, but I want to have that choice if the situation is right that it requires it.
There is no certainty in my eyes as to when I would or would not make that choice, but I do have utter certainty that the decision should be my own and not someone else. If you don't agree with it, just don't do it.
FWIW, I'd certainly like the option to finish my life cleanly and not unpleasantly at the end. But I'm not particularly happy with my conclusion, and I have misgivings about it.2 -
I give the electorate minus the 20% of boneheads attracted to the hatred of Farage and his ilk more commonsense.
If Trump and Musk go full in Dystopian Right Wing destroying every convention and supporting the likes of Tommy Robinson,the vast majority will reject Farage as a puppet and roundly turn on what they see as treachery.
Farage may think Trump and Musk are an advantage for his neo Fascism.
They may find that the orange one and the son of apartheid are roundly rejected and despised by the vast majority in the UK.
Starmer also has the option for Trump and his brand of politics to be kicked out before he has to call a UK GE in July 2025.0 -
My, albeit limited, experience is that anyone who attempts suicide will have contemplated it for a long time previously.BartholomewRoberts said:
Everyone dies.williamglenn said:
If you want to enable it for anyone who so expresses a desire, how is that not suicide?BartholomewRoberts said:Absolutely delighted that assisted dying has passed this initial hurdle in the Commons, something I've supported for decades and glad this is a liberalisation that is belatedly happening.
Would like to see amendments in the Commons now, such as removing the 6 month restriction and enabling it for anyone who so expresses a desire even if not terminal such as people living in agony who could be trapped that way for years as has been discussed previously in the Courts.
Hopefully as it moves on more people will realise that assisted dying is NOT "suicide" and stop artificially conflating the two.
Suicide is generally an impulsive decision to end one's life often taken without discussion with anyone else, or any safeguards, potentially during a mental snap.
Assisted dying is a clinical, deliberate, cold and considered end to life.
They are not remotely the same thing.3 -
Suicide is deliberately killing yourself. Which this is. There's no need to argue assisted dying isn't suicide in order to support it. I support it (I'm pleased it passed) but I don't know why you're drilling on this point.BartholomewRoberts said:
Everyone dies.williamglenn said:
If you want to enable it for anyone who so expresses a desire, how is that not suicide?BartholomewRoberts said:Absolutely delighted that assisted dying has passed this initial hurdle in the Commons, something I've supported for decades and glad this is a liberalisation that is belatedly happening.
Would like to see amendments in the Commons now, such as removing the 6 month restriction and enabling it for anyone who so expresses a desire even if not terminal such as people living in agony who could be trapped that way for years as has been discussed previously in the Courts.
Hopefully as it moves on more people will realise that assisted dying is NOT "suicide" and stop artificially conflating the two.
Suicide is generally an impulsive decision to end one's life often taken without discussion with anyone else, or any safeguards, potentially during a mental snap.
Assisted dying is a clinical, deliberate, cold and considered end to life.
They are not remotely the same thing.6 -
There is a potential future in which Reform displace Labour. The party appears to be heading to the left withsome alacricity.rkrkrk said:
Reform displacing the Conservatives while attracting a modicum of ex-Labour support seems very plausible to me. Then add in the fact that Reform can clearly claim to be the party of the frustrated/tear down the system.Dopermean said:
It seems unlikely though, the LDs have struggled to break through the barrier and they attract tactical voters from left and right. Reform would have to displace the Conservatives or attract another swathe of Labour voters.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
Even distribution of votes isn't much use to them in winning seats.0 -
Wow, the cabinet is now 100% state educated. Not a single private schooler.1
-
I think it’s entirely plausible that Reform could win, or at least get most votes. It does require a lot to go their way, but I think people often underestimate the portion of the electorate who could be persuaded to vote for them. I suspect there is a ceiling because Farage, but I wouldn’t be comfortable to say that ceiling was definitely lower than, say, 35%. That has been enough to deliver parties a win under FPTP.
I find the argument that there’s just no way, pretty unconvincing.2 -
I support assisted dying, but of course it is suicide. That you have killed yourself with the intention of doing so is obvious. Suicide is a general description of that. The new law rightly gives a limited exemption from the offence in the the first instance of murder, which under the older law it would be, or assisting a suicide, which it would be under newer law.BartholomewRoberts said:Absolutely delighted that assisted dying has passed this initial hurdle in the Commons, something I've supported for decades and glad this is a liberalisation that is belatedly happening.
Would like to see amendments in the Commons now, such as removing the 6 month restriction and enabling it for anyone who so expresses a desire even if not terminal such as people living in agony who could be trapped that way for years as has been discussed previously in the Courts.
Hopefully as it moves on more people will realise that assisted dying is NOT "suicide" and stop artificially conflating the two.
Not all killing is murder. Not all assisting in suicide lacks proper justification.2 -
The Lib Dems' strategic error continues to be to micro-target, which is fine on a micro level but breaks down at a national one because it results in a weak brand message, due to the need to not cut across the contradictions at local level and and because if the party does end up in power, those contradictions become all too apparent (and local work is insufficient to act as a guard against the backlash). It is something of a frustration that the party considers Liverpool in the 1970s to be a better guide to strategy than the experience of the 2010s. Particularly when there are plenty of alternative parties these days, and there's an empty space for a liberal party to advocate its own ideology and the policies flowing from that.Dopermean said:
It seems unlikely though, the LDs have struggled to break through the barrier and they attract tactical voters from left and right. Reform would have to displace the Conservatives or attract another swathe of Labour voters.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
Even distribution of votes isn't much use to them in winning seats.
However, that is not a mistake Reform are making. They have their brand and are seeking positive votes off the back of it - albeit that their entire message is a negative one. However, it's against the system as a whole, not vote X to block Y.1 -
Apologies, just seen Louise Haigh was privately educated. I didn't know that.Cookie said:
"Now"?kinabalu said:Wow, the cabinet is now 100% state educated. Not a single private schooler.
Has something just happened today which has brought this about?
I don't mean to be rude - genuinely unsure if I've missed something.2 -
This has Philip Haig Nitschke, the founder of Exit International, tied up in it. The killing pod is his invention.carnforth said:
Some of them do seem like wronguns:Cookie said:
I find enthusiasm for assisted dying a bit odd. I can accept that under some circumstances it might be the least bad option.BartholomewRoberts said:Absolutely delighted that assisted dying has passed this initial hurdle in the Commons, something I've supported for decades and glad this is a liberalisation that is belatedly happening.
Would like to see amendments in the Commons now, such as removing the 6 month restriction and enabling it for anyone who so expresses a desire even if not terminal such as people living in agony who could be trapped that way for years as has been discussed previously in the Courts.
Hopefully as it moves on more people will realise that assisted dying is NOT "suicide" and stop artificially conflating the two.
I am slightly worried by anyone expressing utter certainty on one side or other of this argument.
"‘She's still alive’: First Sarco suicide pod user ‘found with strangulation marks’ as boss remains in custody"
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/shes-still-alive-sarco-suicide-pod-user-found-strangulation-marks-boss-custody/
I think the issue this points up is the habit of some to decide that they are above the law. In this case the authorities had previously warned the operators of the machine that if they used it there, they would be subject to prosecuton.
In September, chief prosecutor Sticher told Swiss newspaper Blick: “We warned them in writing, we said that if they came to Schaffhausen and used Sarco, they would face criminal consequences.'0 -
Turnout in some rural areas of Mayo now approaching 40%. Our local polling station was reported to be "busy" earlier this afternoon, though I haven't voted yet.
The exit poll last time wasn't too bad, correctly predicting the Greens to come a solid fourth, and having the big three parties within 0.2% of each other, when the spread was 3.6%.
So if it's as close as the last pre-election polls predicted it could well get the order of the parties wrong.0 -
They need to square the circle on the economics. A lot of their potential vote aren’t really keen on the idea of Thatcherism on steroids.Cookie said:
There is a potential future in which Reform displace Labour. The party appears to be heading to the left withsome alacricity.rkrkrk said:
Reform displacing the Conservatives while attracting a modicum of ex-Labour support seems very plausible to me. Then add in the fact that Reform can clearly claim to be the party of the frustrated/tear down the system.Dopermean said:
It seems unlikely though, the LDs have struggled to break through the barrier and they attract tactical voters from left and right. Reform would have to displace the Conservatives or attract another swathe of Labour voters.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
Even distribution of votes isn't much use to them in winning seats.
That said, the GOP have managed to persuade swathes of poor rural America.2 -
I think with suicide, it is often done for reasons not obviously visible to those close to them. An addiction they have kept hidden, a love affair that has gone wrong, massive debts. Suicide is often difficult for loved ones to process; they feel they did something wrong, could have prevented it. At worst, it is seen as a very selfish act.williamglenn said:
If you want to enable it for anyone who so expresses a desire, how is that not suicide?BartholomewRoberts said:Absolutely delighted that assisted dying has passed this initial hurdle in the Commons, something I've supported for decades and glad this is a liberalisation that is belatedly happening.
Would like to see amendments in the Commons now, such as removing the 6 month restriction and enabling it for anyone who so expresses a desire even if not terminal such as people living in agony who could be trapped that way for years as has been discussed previously in the Courts.
Hopefully as it moves on more people will realise that assisted dying is NOT "suicide" and stop artificially conflating the two.
Assisted dying - if it is hedged around with the specified protections - will be a very public thing, where it will be easy to understand the reasons (if not always accepting of the course of that outcome). The event will be known about beforehand, people will have time to understand what is happening and why. And they will have an opportunity to say goodbye.
2 -
Reform or Labour? (in your opinion)Cookie said:
There is a potential future in which Reform displace Labour. The party appears to be heading to the left withsome alacricity.rkrkrk said:
Reform displacing the Conservatives while attracting a modicum of ex-Labour support seems very plausible to me. Then add in the fact that Reform can clearly claim to be the party of the frustrated/tear down the system.Dopermean said:
It seems unlikely though, the LDs have struggled to break through the barrier and they attract tactical voters from left and right. Reform would have to displace the Conservatives or attract another swathe of Labour voters.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
Even distribution of votes isn't much use to them in winning seats.0 -
They don't look great:david_herdson said:
I hope this Syrian opposition is less objectionable than the last one.Nigelb said:
Someone pray for Tulsi Gabbard in this trying time. Her friend Bashar is going through it right nowwilliamglenn said:https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1862527883895337265
Unverified Reports that Russian Military Command Syria has ordered all Forces in the Northern Governorates of Aleppo and Idlib, to Withdraw away from the ongoing Rebel Offensive and towards the South.
We may now be witnessing the near Total Collapse of the Syrian Arab Army and Pro-Regime Militias in the Northwest of the Country; with the City of Aleppo expected to likely fall to Opposition Forces in the next few hours, as both the Russians and Iranians appear to be in Chaos.
https://x.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1862529300781547549
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tahrir_al-Sham#Designation_as_a_terrorist_organization_and_sanctions
But they're not ISIS, or Assad - and they are said to contain pragmatists. FWIW.
If they do occupy Aleppo for any length of time, we'll get to find out what they are.0 -
Both! But I was thinking about Reform. A couple of years ago they seemed very Trussite to me. Increasingly to me they are seeming like a bigger SDP.Dopermean said:
Reform or Labour? (in your opinion)Cookie said:
There is a potential future in which Reform displace Labour. The party appears to be heading to the left withsome alacricity.rkrkrk said:
Reform displacing the Conservatives while attracting a modicum of ex-Labour support seems very plausible to me. Then add in the fact that Reform can clearly claim to be the party of the frustrated/tear down the system.Dopermean said:
It seems unlikely though, the LDs have struggled to break through the barrier and they attract tactical voters from left and right. Reform would have to displace the Conservatives or attract another swathe of Labour voters.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
Even distribution of votes isn't much use to them in winning seats.0 -
The AfD’s draft manifesto for the upcoming German elections calls for Germany to leave the EU and restore the Deutschmark.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/absolute-ausnahme-afd-plant-starke-einschrankungen-bei-schwangerschaftsabbruchen-12790355.html0 -
Well, something will be needed to replace all that lovely tobacco tax, so that's probably in with a chance.Dumbosaurus said:
For me the joy comes from knowing that soon no one will have to go through what some of my relatives went through.Cookie said:
I find enthusiasm for assisted dying a bit odd. I can accept that under some circumstances it might be the least bad option.BartholomewRoberts said:Absolutely delighted that assisted dying has passed this initial hurdle in the Commons, something I've supported for decades and glad this is a liberalisation that is belatedly happening.
Would like to see amendments in the Commons now, such as removing the 6 month restriction and enabling it for anyone who so expresses a desire even if not terminal such as people living in agony who could be trapped that way for years as has been discussed previously in the Courts.
Hopefully as it moves on more people will realise that assisted dying is NOT "suicide" and stop artificially conflating the two.
I am slightly worried by anyone expressing utter certainty on one side or other of this argument.
C'Mon Labour. Legalise drugs next pls.
Good evening, everybody.1 -
The Lib Dem Voice account, which is interesting.TheScreamingEagles said:
It really wasn't, it was local factors.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Red wall and Scotland are quite fertile for Reform and this from Sheffield last night was interestingPJH said:
You don't, but you do need more than 30% even if the rest of the vote is scattered and I think Reform will hit the ceiling before that. And also they will get a lot of tactical voting against - even I would vote Tory without a moment's hesitation if it kept Reform out.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
That doesn't mean they can't win a significant number of seats, but not enough to win overall.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1862293074447130939?t=fHGlvMJksbxEKGfLuyaRuA&s=19
I don't think you or anyone including the Election Maps have mentioned the Labour councillor who won the seat and died triggering the by election hadn't been a Labour councillor for the last year I think, there's been a lot of infighting.
All about the trees.
Also UKIP or BXP did well here in 2019.
https://www.libdemvoice.org/stunning-victory-in-sheffield-76627.html
And has a fascinating comment at the bottom on the article:
Janet Molineaux 29th Nov '24 - 3:10pm
Well done Willis … don’t forget our agreement
Regards
JanetM
0 -
House is looking like 217 R to 215 D after several surprise outcomes in California.
Will get a bit easier for Trump a few months down the line as Special Elections fall to the Republicans. If that is indeed what happens. Depends how egg prices go...0 -
I'd hope this is right but after the November 5th shocker I'm not as confident as you. National populism is having a moment and REF own the franchise in the UK. If the economy is bad at the time of the next GE all sorts of outcomes are possible inc PM Farage. A lot depends on how the Cons shape up.Shecorns88 said:I give the electorate minus the 20% of boneheads attracted to the hatred of Farage and his ilk more commonsense.
If Trump and Musk go full in Dystopian Right Wing destroying every convention and supporting the likes of Tommy Robinson,the vast majority will reject Farage as a puppet and roundly turn on what they see as treachery.
Farage may think Trump and Musk are an advantage for his neo Fascism.
They may find that the orange one and the son of apartheid are roundly rejected and despised by the vast majority in the UK.
Starmer also has the option for Trump and his brand of politics to be kicked out before he has to call a UK GE in July 2025.2 -
.. depends on H5N1MarqueeMark said:House is looking like 217 R to 215 D after several surprise outcomes in California.
Will get a bit easier for Trump a few months down the line as Special Elections fall to the Republicans. If that is indeed what happens. Depends how egg prices go...1 -
Nostalgia is a big driver of this type of politics.williamglenn said:The AfD’s draft manifesto for the upcoming German elections calls for Germany to leave the EU and restore the Deutschmark.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/absolute-ausnahme-afd-plant-starke-einschrankungen-bei-schwangerschaftsabbruchen-12790355.html0 -
A reform-lib dem coalition would potentially be the best government of my lifetime, for much the same reasons that the previous coalition was. Hard to see it happening but stranger things have!Cookie said:
Both! But I was thinking about Reform. A couple of years ago they seemed very Trussite to me. Increasingly to me they are seeming like a bigger SDP.Dopermean said:
Reform or Labour? (in your opinion)Cookie said:
There is a potential future in which Reform displace Labour. The party appears to be heading to the left withsome alacricity.rkrkrk said:
Reform displacing the Conservatives while attracting a modicum of ex-Labour support seems very plausible to me. Then add in the fact that Reform can clearly claim to be the party of the frustrated/tear down the system.Dopermean said:
It seems unlikely though, the LDs have struggled to break through the barrier and they attract tactical voters from left and right. Reform would have to displace the Conservatives or attract another swathe of Labour voters.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
Even distribution of votes isn't much use to them in winning seats.1 -
What's their plans for Poland?williamglenn said:The AfD’s draft manifesto for the upcoming German elections calls for Germany to leave the EU and restore the Deutschmark.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/absolute-ausnahme-afd-plant-starke-einschrankungen-bei-schwangerschaftsabbruchen-12790355.html1 -
Hm, a bit. But REF doesn't have too big a pool of CON voters to fish in. I suspect a large proportion of current REF voters wouldn't touch the Cons with a long stick, but there is a pool of LAB voters they will be going for.kinabalu said:
I'd hope this is right but after the November 5th shocker I'm not as confident as you. National populism is having a moment and REF own the franchise in the UK. If the economy is bad at the time of the next GE all sorts of outcomes are possible inc PM Farage. A lot depends on how the Cons shape up.Shecorns88 said:I give the electorate minus the 20% of boneheads attracted to the hatred of Farage and his ilk more commonsense.
If Trump and Musk go full in Dystopian Right Wing destroying every convention and supporting the likes of Tommy Robinson,the vast majority will reject Farage as a puppet and roundly turn on what they see as treachery.
Farage may think Trump and Musk are an advantage for his neo Fascism.
They may find that the orange one and the son of apartheid are roundly rejected and despised by the vast majority in the UK.
Starmer also has the option for Trump and his brand of politics to be kicked out before he has to call a UK GE in July 2025.
I'd say therefore it depends just as much on how LAB shape up.0 -
The Reichsmark, shurely?williamglenn said:The AfD’s draft manifesto for the upcoming German elections calls for Germany to leave the EU and restore the Deutschmark.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/absolute-ausnahme-afd-plant-starke-einschrankungen-bei-schwangerschaftsabbruchen-12790355.html0 -
FPT: Thanks to Charlie Stark for providing a few numbers. But there are many more I would like to see. Examples: Is the Canadian government cutting costs as the result of the increase in assisted suicide? If so, how much?
How common are the extreme cases, in which a person wishes to commit suicide but is unable to do so on their own? One percent? Ten percent? More? Or even less than one percent?1 -
They think of it as the thin end of the Lodz.rottenborough said:
What's their plans for Poland?williamglenn said:The AfD’s draft manifesto for the upcoming German elections calls for Germany to leave the EU and restore the Deutschmark.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/absolute-ausnahme-afd-plant-starke-einschrankungen-bei-schwangerschaftsabbruchen-12790355.html
3 -
Well, there are pragmatists and pragmatists. Assad is a pragmatist in some ways.Nigelb said:
They don't look great:david_herdson said:
I hope this Syrian opposition is less objectionable than the last one.Nigelb said:
Someone pray for Tulsi Gabbard in this trying time. Her friend Bashar is going through it right nowwilliamglenn said:https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1862527883895337265
Unverified Reports that Russian Military Command Syria has ordered all Forces in the Northern Governorates of Aleppo and Idlib, to Withdraw away from the ongoing Rebel Offensive and towards the South.
We may now be witnessing the near Total Collapse of the Syrian Arab Army and Pro-Regime Militias in the Northwest of the Country; with the City of Aleppo expected to likely fall to Opposition Forces in the next few hours, as both the Russians and Iranians appear to be in Chaos.
https://x.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1862529300781547549
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tahrir_al-Sham#Designation_as_a_terrorist_organization_and_sanctions
But they're not ISIS, or Assad - and they are said to contain pragmatists. FWIW.
If they do occupy Aleppo for any length of time, we'll get to find out what they are.0 -
Also FPT: An old quip by Isaac Asimov reminds me of why I am not persuaded that American doctors are necessarily the best moral guides. He explained the high support for abortion among American Jews by saying that Jews do not think anyone is "fully human" until they have graduated from medical school.3
-
Very, very good.ydoethur said:
They think of it as the thin end of the Lodz.rottenborough said:
What's their plans for Poland?williamglenn said:The AfD’s draft manifesto for the upcoming German elections calls for Germany to leave the EU and restore the Deutschmark.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/absolute-ausnahme-afd-plant-starke-einschrankungen-bei-schwangerschaftsabbruchen-12790355.html0 -
Not very funny, really.Jim_Miller said:Also FPT: An old quip by Isaac Asimov reminds me of why I am not persuaded that American doctors are necessarily the best moral guides. He explained the high support for abortion among American Jews by saying that Jews do not think anyone is "fully human" until they have graduated from medical school.
The better one is the debate between the priest, the minister and the rabbi.
The priest says ‘Life begins when the sperm meets the ovum.’
The minister says, ‘Life begins at the moment of birth.’
The rabbi says, ‘You’re both wrong. Life begins when the children leave home, the mortgage is paid off and the dog dies.’10 -
Latest on turnout in today's Irish general election.
In Drogheda Rural a turnout of 48% has been recorded in Sandpit, while in Aston Village it is 42%.
Higher turnout in rural areas holding true, but the post-work rush would be expected to start now, so we'll see whether that shifts.0 -
He really is the pits of the earth. I hope he falls almost regardless of how it happens and what replaces him.david_herdson said:
Well, there are pragmatists and pragmatists. Assad is a pragmatist in some ways.Nigelb said:
They don't look great:david_herdson said:
I hope this Syrian opposition is less objectionable than the last one.Nigelb said:
Someone pray for Tulsi Gabbard in this trying time. Her friend Bashar is going through it right nowwilliamglenn said:https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1862527883895337265
Unverified Reports that Russian Military Command Syria has ordered all Forces in the Northern Governorates of Aleppo and Idlib, to Withdraw away from the ongoing Rebel Offensive and towards the South.
We may now be witnessing the near Total Collapse of the Syrian Arab Army and Pro-Regime Militias in the Northwest of the Country; with the City of Aleppo expected to likely fall to Opposition Forces in the next few hours, as both the Russians and Iranians appear to be in Chaos.
https://x.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1862529300781547549
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tahrir_al-Sham#Designation_as_a_terrorist_organization_and_sanctions
But they're not ISIS, or Assad - and they are said to contain pragmatists. FWIW.
If they do occupy Aleppo for any length of time, we'll get to find out what they are.0 -
If progressives don’t want to generate nostalgia, they could just refrain from making things worse.kinabalu said:
Nostalgia is a big driver of this type of politics.williamglenn said:The AfD’s draft manifesto for the upcoming German elections calls for Germany to leave the EU and restore the Deutschmark.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/absolute-ausnahme-afd-plant-starke-einschrankungen-bei-schwangerschaftsabbruchen-12790355.html1 -
They should really also go for replacing the EU passport with the old green colour. Works a treat.kinabalu said:
Nostalgia is a big driver of this type of politics.williamglenn said:The AfD’s draft manifesto for the upcoming German elections calls for Germany to leave the EU and restore the Deutschmark.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/absolute-ausnahme-afd-plant-starke-einschrankungen-bei-schwangerschaftsabbruchen-12790355.html1 -
Yes, but that (because they're in government) depends largely on the economy. All opposition parties need a struggling economy. Labour need a moderate to good one. They'll have 'shaped up' if that happens.Cookie said:
Hm, a bit. But REF doesn't have too big a pool of CON voters to fish in. I suspect a large proportion of current REF voters wouldn't touch the Cons with a long stick, but there is a pool of LAB voters they will be going for.kinabalu said:
I'd hope this is right but after the November 5th shocker I'm not as confident as you. National populism is having a moment and REF own the franchise in the UK. If the economy is bad at the time of the next GE all sorts of outcomes are possible inc PM Farage. A lot depends on how the Cons shape up.Shecorns88 said:I give the electorate minus the 20% of boneheads attracted to the hatred of Farage and his ilk more commonsense.
If Trump and Musk go full in Dystopian Right Wing destroying every convention and supporting the likes of Tommy Robinson,the vast majority will reject Farage as a puppet and roundly turn on what they see as treachery.
Farage may think Trump and Musk are an advantage for his neo Fascism.
They may find that the orange one and the son of apartheid are roundly rejected and despised by the vast majority in the UK.
Starmer also has the option for Trump and his brand of politics to be kicked out before he has to call a UK GE in July 2025.
I'd say therefore it depends just as much on how LAB shape up.0 -
The LibDems had to micro target as they couldn't get their voice heard nationally. National media wasn't interested until Davey started doing his stunts and that's not really a brand message! It just gets you seen.. A national campaign, without micro targeting, would have ended up like Reform's. A higher share but much fewer seats.david_herdson said:
The Lib Dems' strategic error continues to be to micro-target, which is fine on a micro level but breaks down at a national one because it results in a weak brand message, due to the need to not cut across the contradictions at local level and and because if the party does end up in power, those contradictions become all too apparent (and local work is insufficient to act as a guard against the backlash). It is something of a frustration that the party considers Liverpool in the 1970s to be a better guide to strategy than the experience of the 2010s. Particularly when there are plenty of alternative parties these days, and there's an empty space for a liberal party to advocate its own ideology and the policies flowing from that.Dopermean said:
It seems unlikely though, the LDs have struggled to break through the barrier and they attract tactical voters from left and right. Reform would have to displace the Conservatives or attract another swathe of Labour voters.rkrkrk said:
You don't need most voters to win in our system though...PJH said:First?
And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
Even distribution of votes isn't much use to them in winning seats.
However, that is not a mistake Reform are making. They have their brand and are seeking positive votes off the back of it - albeit that their entire message is a negative one. However, it's against the system as a whole, not vote X to block Y.
Now the LibDems have a presence and a national voice, I think we'll see stage two of the strategy - a national brand and appeal based on freedom of the individual (freedom to and freedom from) coupled with fairness and free of special interests, and underpinned by dedication to helping individual electors and competence in getting things done.1 -
Musk or Assad?kinabalu said:
He really is the pits of the earth. I hope he falls almost regardless of how it happens and what replaces him.david_herdson said:
Well, there are pragmatists and pragmatists. Assad is a pragmatist in some ways.Nigelb said:
They don't look great:david_herdson said:
I hope this Syrian opposition is less objectionable than the last one.Nigelb said:
Someone pray for Tulsi Gabbard in this trying time. Her friend Bashar is going through it right nowwilliamglenn said:https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1862527883895337265
Unverified Reports that Russian Military Command Syria has ordered all Forces in the Northern Governorates of Aleppo and Idlib, to Withdraw away from the ongoing Rebel Offensive and towards the South.
We may now be witnessing the near Total Collapse of the Syrian Arab Army and Pro-Regime Militias in the Northwest of the Country; with the City of Aleppo expected to likely fall to Opposition Forces in the next few hours, as both the Russians and Iranians appear to be in Chaos.
https://x.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1862529300781547549
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tahrir_al-Sham#Designation_as_a_terrorist_organization_and_sanctions
But they're not ISIS, or Assad - and they are said to contain pragmatists. FWIW.
If they do occupy Aleppo for any length of time, we'll get to find out what they are.
1 -
Do you think turnout in Mayo will ketchup with the rest of the country?LostPassword said:Turnout in some rural areas of Mayo now approaching 40%. Our local polling station was reported to be "busy" earlier this afternoon, though I haven't voted yet.
The exit poll last time wasn't too bad, correctly predicting the Greens to come a solid fourth, and having the big three parties within 0.2% of each other, when the spread was 3.6%.
So if it's as close as the last pre-election polls predicted it could well get the order of the parties wrong.2 -
If you keep that up, TSE will give you a dressing down.noneoftheabove said:
Do you think turnout in Mayo will ketchup with the rest of the country?LostPassword said:Turnout in some rural areas of Mayo now approaching 40%. Our local polling station was reported to be "busy" earlier this afternoon, though I haven't voted yet.
The exit poll last time wasn't too bad, correctly predicting the Greens to come a solid fourth, and having the big three parties within 0.2% of each other, when the spread was 3.6%.
So if it's as close as the last pre-election polls predicted it could well get the order of the parties wrong.0 -
Afternoon all
Looking into the dark mists of 2028/29, a lot will depend on the second Trump administration and whether it succeeds or fails. IF those who believe in Project 2025 are able to instigate some of all their plans and IF they are perceived to be working in terms of driving economic growth, reducing the fear of crime and reducing the concerns of immigration, they will become the de facto policies of Reform and perhaps the Conservatives who may end up as two bald men fighting over a comb.
IF, however, the second Trump administration does not go well in terms of tariffs failing to have the positive economic impact hoped for, the "alt right populism" behind it will be marginalised, Reform will be in trouble and the Conservatives will likely tack to a more centrist position.
It may be about immigration but it's more about the perceived effects of that immigration on the "working class" (however you define that) and the socio-economic impacts of trying to bring in a strongly anti-immigration policy.
If the perceived "open door" has failed then many think closing it substantially will work but even Badenoch admits there will be "trade offs". Credit where it's due - at least she has the courage to concede there will be issues with a sharply reduced net migration number.1 -
Hmmm.Nigelb said:
They don't look great:david_herdson said:
I hope this Syrian opposition is less objectionable than the last one.Nigelb said:
Someone pray for Tulsi Gabbard in this trying time. Her friend Bashar is going through it right nowwilliamglenn said:https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1862527883895337265
Unverified Reports that Russian Military Command Syria has ordered all Forces in the Northern Governorates of Aleppo and Idlib, to Withdraw away from the ongoing Rebel Offensive and towards the South.
We may now be witnessing the near Total Collapse of the Syrian Arab Army and Pro-Regime Militias in the Northwest of the Country; with the City of Aleppo expected to likely fall to Opposition Forces in the next few hours, as both the Russians and Iranians appear to be in Chaos.
https://x.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1862529300781547549
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tahrir_al-Sham#Designation_as_a_terrorist_organization_and_sanctions
But they're not ISIS, or Assad - and they are said to contain pragmatists. FWIW.
If they do occupy Aleppo for any length of time, we'll get to find out what they are.
The pressing question is how much CBRN does Assad have and how secure is it? Are the Russians keeping it safe from this or not? Will they use it at scale if they think the regime is going to fall?
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Lol. But no, Assad takes some beating for depravity. I feel positively warm towards Musk by comparison.ydoethur said:
Musk or Assad?kinabalu said:
He really is the pits of the earth. I hope he falls almost regardless of how it happens and what replaces him.david_herdson said:
Well, there are pragmatists and pragmatists. Assad is a pragmatist in some ways.Nigelb said:
They don't look great:david_herdson said:
I hope this Syrian opposition is less objectionable than the last one.Nigelb said:
Someone pray for Tulsi Gabbard in this trying time. Her friend Bashar is going through it right nowwilliamglenn said:https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1862527883895337265
Unverified Reports that Russian Military Command Syria has ordered all Forces in the Northern Governorates of Aleppo and Idlib, to Withdraw away from the ongoing Rebel Offensive and towards the South.
We may now be witnessing the near Total Collapse of the Syrian Arab Army and Pro-Regime Militias in the Northwest of the Country; with the City of Aleppo expected to likely fall to Opposition Forces in the next few hours, as both the Russians and Iranians appear to be in Chaos.
https://x.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1862529300781547549
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tahrir_al-Sham#Designation_as_a_terrorist_organization_and_sanctions
But they're not ISIS, or Assad - and they are said to contain pragmatists. FWIW.
If they do occupy Aleppo for any length of time, we'll get to find out what they are.0 -
Impossible. There are people round me who think Leith was better in the 80s and 90s, when it enjoyed a massive heroin use, Aids epidemic and the murder rate was 100% higher.williamglenn said:
If progressives don’t want to generate nostalgia, they could just refrain from making things worse.kinabalu said:
Nostalgia is a big driver of this type of politics.williamglenn said:The AfD’s draft manifesto for the upcoming German elections calls for Germany to leave the EU and restore the Deutschmark.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/absolute-ausnahme-afd-plant-starke-einschrankungen-bei-schwangerschaftsabbruchen-12790355.html3 -
Optics bad for Assad0
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Christ…
“That was when something incredible happened. The cortex turned from grey to pink. Brain cells started producing proteins. Neurons juddered back to life, displaying signs of metabolic activity indistinguishable from that of living cells. Basic cellular functions, activities that were supposed to irreversibly cease after blood flow stopped, were restored. The pig’s brain wasn’t alive, exactly – but it certainly wasn’t dead.
Now, for the first time, the team is using the technique on human brains”.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg26435193-700-the-radical-treatments-bringing-people-back-from-the-brink-of-death/0 -
Mr Trump will have some potential problems with the margins that close, I think.MarqueeMark said:House is looking like 217 R to 215 D after several surprise outcomes in California.
Will get a bit easier for Trump a few months down the line as Special Elections fall to the Republicans. If that is indeed what happens. Depends how egg prices go...
Matt Gaetz already ran away after meeting a small number of GOP Senators who would not back him.
Trump's proposal for Def Sec, Pete Hegseth, who is a Fox Reporter going in heavy on anti-'woke' and wants women out of combat roles:
, he has demanded a purge of what he calls woke policy and leadership at the Pentagon, including reversing the decision to formally allow women to serve in combat.
https://www.npr.org/2024/11/26/nx-s1-5201678/trumps-defense-pick-says-women-shouldnt-serve-in-combat-these-veterans-disagree
Unfortunately for him, there are a number of female Senators who are armed forces Veterans, including those with extensive front line experience and senior ranks, and decorations.
He's may get his nuts roasted and handed back to him on a cocktail stick.
He also has allegations of spiking drinks followed by sexual assault against him.
I can't help wonder is pursuing a Putin tactic - send in the B-team to be annihilated, and follow with the real candidates.0 -
Bottle half empty?geoffw said:Optics bad for Assad
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Knowing my luck they'll solve the problem of death 5 minutes after I've popped it.biggles said:Christ…
“That was when something incredible happened. The cortex turned from grey to pink. Brain cells started producing proteins. Neurons juddered back to life, displaying signs of metabolic activity indistinguishable from that of living cells. Basic cellular functions, activities that were supposed to irreversibly cease after blood flow stopped, were restored. The pig’s brain wasn’t alive, exactly – but it certainly wasn’t dead.
Now, for the first time, the team is using the technique on human brains”.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg26435193-700-the-radical-treatments-bringing-people-back-from-the-brink-of-death/4
