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Will Elon Musk be proven right? – politicalbetting.com
Will Elon Musk be proven right? – politicalbetting.com
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And No. Reform are too toxic for most voters.
The Betfair price of 4.4 for Reform for most seats at the next election I think is about right.
That doesn't mean they can't win a significant number of seats, but not enough to win overall.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1862293074447130939?t=fHGlvMJksbxEKGfLuyaRuA&s=19
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT-1K_Raybolt
We have a system which virtually guarantees that will normally be the case.
I don't think you or anyone including the Election Maps have mentioned the Labour councillor who won the seat and died triggering the by election hadn't been a Labour councillor for the last year I think, there's been a lot of infighting.
All about the trees.
Also UKIP or BXP did well here in 2019.
Unverified Reports that Russian Military Command Syria has ordered all Forces in the Northern Governorates of Aleppo and Idlib, to Withdraw away from the ongoing Rebel Offensive and towards the South.
We may now be witnessing the near Total Collapse of the Syrian Arab Army and Pro-Regime Militias in the Northwest of the Country; with the City of Aleppo expected to likely fall to Opposition Forces in the next few hours, as both the Russians and Iranians appear to be in Chaos.
'Most seats', of course, does not mean they 'win' the election - a point Musk struggled to cope with in relation to Austria recently. If Reform did win most seats, it would place Badenoch (or her replacement) in an extremely difficult position but we shouldn't assume they would necessarily back Farage into No 10. That said, I think it would be the only choice that might preserve the Tory Party, so they might well.
Reform could easily reach 25%, which was where the Brexit Party peaked in 2019, and might get into the 30s in the polls if events run their way. Even a low 30s score could see them take most seats with the right split elsewhere.
How they'd manage under scrutiny is open to question but as Trump and various European equivalents have shown, what were once barring offences to political office are now at worst embarrassments and at best (for them) positive assets.
Chances are the cards won't fall their way, or they'll mess up, or the mainstream will deliver sufficiently to put a much lower ceiling on their support, but it's easy enough to see how they do break through.
Jenkyns defection is quite a big moment though. Reform need to win that election now - but if they *do* win that election, it reinforces their status as a major player.
https://x.com/aliostad/status/1862530111255265448?s=61
Would like to see amendments in the Commons now, such as removing the 6 month restriction and enabling it for anyone who so expresses a desire even if not terminal such as people living in agony who could be trapped that way for years as has been discussed previously in the Courts.
Hopefully as it moves on more people will realise that assisted dying is NOT "suicide" and stop artificially conflating the two.
Nearly but not quite might be repeated a lot. As others have pointed out, with the vote split multiple ways FPTP could be a bit of a lottery. I thought that at the last election, but in fact there were very few seats where the electorate didn't coalesce around the top two. The question we will have to work out over time is whether Reform are in the top two often enough, and whether moderate Tories will vote for Reform or prefer one of the other parties to beat Labour, and whether many Labour voters will hold their noses and vote Tory.
No link whatsoever!
Perhaps all those voters who hate Reform will vote Lib Dem next time? Just to be on the safe side.....
Even distribution of votes isn't much use to them in winning seats.
I am slightly worried by anyone expressing utter certainty on one side or other of this argument.
Suicide is generally an impulsive decision to end one's life often taken without discussion with anyone else, or any safeguards, potentially during a mental snap.
Assisted dying is a clinical, deliberate, cold and considered end to life.
They are not remotely the same thing.
"‘She's still alive’: First Sarco suicide pod user ‘found with strangulation marks’ as boss remains in custody"
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/shes-still-alive-sarco-suicide-pod-user-found-strangulation-marks-boss-custody/
I don't want to die, but I want to have that choice if the situation is right that it requires it.
There is no certainty in my eyes as to when I would or would not make that choice, but I do have utter certainty that the decision should be my own and not someone else. If you don't agree with it, just don't do it.
C'Mon Labour. Legalise drugs next pls.
A bit more portable, though.
https://x.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1862529300781547549
So 2 more means they have caught up on the Ashfield Independents !
A centre/centre left party looking to run a mixed market economy with provision of public services versus a hard right party that incites racial hatred and would be utterly useless at governing the country or even a small parish.
FWIW, I'd certainly like the option to finish my life cleanly and not unpleasantly at the end. But I'm not particularly happy with my conclusion, and I have misgivings about it.
If Trump and Musk go full in Dystopian Right Wing destroying every convention and supporting the likes of Tommy Robinson,the vast majority will reject Farage as a puppet and roundly turn on what they see as treachery.
Farage may think Trump and Musk are an advantage for his neo Fascism.
They may find that the orange one and the son of apartheid are roundly rejected and despised by the vast majority in the UK.
Starmer also has the option for Trump and his brand of politics to be kicked out before he has to call a UK GE in July 2025.
I find the argument that there’s just no way, pretty unconvincing.
Not all killing is murder. Not all assisting in suicide lacks proper justification.
However, that is not a mistake Reform are making. They have their brand and are seeking positive votes off the back of it - albeit that their entire message is a negative one. However, it's against the system as a whole, not vote X to block Y.
Has something just happened today which has brought this about?
I don't mean to be rude - genuinely unsure if I've missed something.
I think the issue this points up is the habit of some to decide that they are above the law. In this case the authorities had previously warned the operators of the machine that if they used it there, they would be subject to prosecuton.
In September, chief prosecutor Sticher told Swiss newspaper Blick: “We warned them in writing, we said that if they came to Schaffhausen and used Sarco, they would face criminal consequences.'
The exit poll last time wasn't too bad, correctly predicting the Greens to come a solid fourth, and having the big three parties within 0.2% of each other, when the spread was 3.6%.
So if it's as close as the last pre-election polls predicted it could well get the order of the parties wrong.
That said, the GOP have managed to persuade swathes of poor rural America.
Assisted dying - if it is hedged around with the specified protections - will be a very public thing, where it will be easy to understand the reasons (if not always accepting of the course of that outcome). The event will be known about beforehand, people will have time to understand what is happening and why. And they will have an opportunity to say goodbye.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tahrir_al-Sham#Designation_as_a_terrorist_organization_and_sanctions
But they're not ISIS, or Assad - and they are said to contain pragmatists. FWIW.
If they do occupy Aleppo for any length of time, we'll get to find out what they are.
https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/absolute-ausnahme-afd-plant-starke-einschrankungen-bei-schwangerschaftsabbruchen-12790355.html
Good evening, everybody.
https://www.libdemvoice.org/stunning-victory-in-sheffield-76627.html
And has a fascinating comment at the bottom on the article:
Janet Molineaux 29th Nov '24 - 3:10pm
Well done Willis … don’t forget our agreement
Regards
JanetM
Will get a bit easier for Trump a few months down the line as Special Elections fall to the Republicans. If that is indeed what happens. Depends how egg prices go...
I'd say therefore it depends just as much on how LAB shape up.
How common are the extreme cases, in which a person wishes to commit suicide but is unable to do so on their own? One percent? Ten percent? More? Or even less than one percent?
The better one is the debate between the priest, the minister and the rabbi.
The priest says ‘Life begins when the sperm meets the ovum.’
The minister says, ‘Life begins at the moment of birth.’
The rabbi says, ‘You’re both wrong. Life begins when the children leave home, the mortgage is paid off and the dog dies.’
In Drogheda Rural a turnout of 48% has been recorded in Sandpit, while in Aston Village it is 42%.
Higher turnout in rural areas holding true, but the post-work rush would be expected to start now, so we'll see whether that shifts.
Now the LibDems have a presence and a national voice, I think we'll see stage two of the strategy - a national brand and appeal based on freedom of the individual (freedom to and freedom from) coupled with fairness and free of special interests, and underpinned by dedication to helping individual electors and competence in getting things done.
Looking into the dark mists of 2028/29, a lot will depend on the second Trump administration and whether it succeeds or fails. IF those who believe in Project 2025 are able to instigate some of all their plans and IF they are perceived to be working in terms of driving economic growth, reducing the fear of crime and reducing the concerns of immigration, they will become the de facto policies of Reform and perhaps the Conservatives who may end up as two bald men fighting over a comb.
IF, however, the second Trump administration does not go well in terms of tariffs failing to have the positive economic impact hoped for, the "alt right populism" behind it will be marginalised, Reform will be in trouble and the Conservatives will likely tack to a more centrist position.
It may be about immigration but it's more about the perceived effects of that immigration on the "working class" (however you define that) and the socio-economic impacts of trying to bring in a strongly anti-immigration policy.
If the perceived "open door" has failed then many think closing it substantially will work but even Badenoch admits there will be "trade offs". Credit where it's due - at least she has the courage to concede there will be issues with a sharply reduced net migration number.
The pressing question is how much CBRN does Assad have and how secure is it? Are the Russians keeping it safe from this or not? Will they use it at scale if they think the regime is going to fall?
“That was when something incredible happened. The cortex turned from grey to pink. Brain cells started producing proteins. Neurons juddered back to life, displaying signs of metabolic activity indistinguishable from that of living cells. Basic cellular functions, activities that were supposed to irreversibly cease after blood flow stopped, were restored. The pig’s brain wasn’t alive, exactly – but it certainly wasn’t dead.
Now, for the first time, the team is using the technique on human brains”.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg26435193-700-the-radical-treatments-bringing-people-back-from-the-brink-of-death/
Matt Gaetz already ran away after meeting a small number of GOP Senators who would not back him.
Trump's proposal for Def Sec, Pete Hegseth, who is a Fox Reporter going in heavy on anti-'woke' and wants women out of combat roles:
, he has demanded a purge of what he calls woke policy and leadership at the Pentagon, including reversing the decision to formally allow women to serve in combat.
https://www.npr.org/2024/11/26/nx-s1-5201678/trumps-defense-pick-says-women-shouldnt-serve-in-combat-these-veterans-disagree
Unfortunately for him, there are a number of female Senators who are armed forces Veterans, including those with extensive front line experience and senior ranks, and decorations.
He's may get his nuts roasted and handed back to him on a cocktail stick.
He also has allegations of spiking drinks followed by sexual assault against him.
I can't help wonder is pursuing a Putin tactic - send in the B-team to be annihilated, and follow with the real candidates.