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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson on the Ukip challenge to Labour
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson on the Ukip challenge to Labour
Two and a half of years ago when the ‘Blue Labour’ group of thinkers in the party first made their mark there was quite a bit of a stir. The ‘blue’ in Blue Labour was ‘small c’ conservativism among working class voters – it was blue collar. But in a party that wraps itself in all things red, even the name raised eyebrows.
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"but if Labour buries its head in the sand then it could be next."
The 'head in the sand' buriers point to Labour's 2010 voters who now say they will vote UKIP - (5% vs 8 for Lib Dem & 19 Con, in today's YouGov) - but how many former Labour voters who voted Lib Dem or stayed at home in 2010 are now UKIP supporters?
All the major parties are out of touch - by both background and education, with the old 'working class' - who won Thatcher her power - and Blair his landslide. UKIP appeals to that - but whether that appeal holds up as they come under increasing scrutiny, only time will tell.
[The last point reminds me of a Grand Prix where the tactical decisions on tyres when the rubber doesn't last long and rain is forecast makes it nigh on impossible to get completely right].
I'd guess none of the first and last, and maybe a smidgen in Wales.
By the way, d'you speak any Welsh?
(I presume some dastardly F1 team is now putting team orders out in Welsh?)
No, of course not. I've improved on it a lot.
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/05/10/as-pr-becomes-centre-stage-what-about-this/
JDA Wiseman seems (or at least in the late 1990s when he came up with the basic system) to be a single-member constituency fanatic, with an obsession above all else in ensuring Sinn Fein don't win any seats...
The only part of his basic idea that my system retains is the squaring of the national votes bit, done - contrary to his plan - separately in each of the four home nations ...
'THE pro-union Better Together campaign has refused to work with UKIP to persuade Scots to vote against independence.
Better Together yesterday insisted that Nigel Farage’s resurgent right wingers “are not a Scottish party and this is a Scottish debate”.
In return, UKIP accused Better Together of being “petty and small minded”.'
http://tinyurl.com/cxs7y2d
Will you follow in the Dylan Thomas, and Terry Pratchett style of slipping in a joke welsh place name, (Llareggub, or Llamedos respectively for those two authors).
The next door bit is vaguely Cornish, and I've had the place names Ventongimps and Mousehole suggested
Message is on its way.
Blair worked for Labour because he atrracted moderate Tories while tribal loyalty kept the traditional working class voters on side. Cameron's problem, unlike Thatcher or Major is that he just doubles down on the Tory appeal to the Shires and has nothing to say to the C1/C2 voters who gave the Tories their majorities.
On this basis, EdM is probably too much of an appeal to Labour's metropolitian heartland; and it's not clear who the Tories have who can authentically stretch their electoral reach.
%s with change on 2009.
Con 39.7% (-6.5%) 58 seats
UKIP 22.4% (+12.2%) 3 seats
LD 15.8% (-11.3%) 9 seats
Lab 10.7% (+4.9%) 1 seat
Green 1.6% (-0.3%) 1 seat
Residents 6.5% (+0.6%) 7 seats
Others including Ind 3.3% (+0.3%) 2 seats
Tories with 39.7% of the vote win 71.6% of the seats.
Who said FPTP isn't friendly to Conservatives?
As always with FPTP it is not how many votes you get.
It is how many votes you get AND where they are!
Labour's problem though is that EdM is very much of the 'firends of SeanT' type lefty.
He's still going to become prime minister in 2015.
Actually Cameron does have something to say to the working class voters who give Conservative governments their majorities:
"Get on your bike or put on your chauffer's cap or got off my road prole"
The Tories may be over-represented by those with Oxbridge PPEs, Eton and other highly expensive boarding schools, but are Labour's policy wonks (in reality middle class professionals from the public sector) any more representative of their electorates?
Who the Conservatives have is, as you observe, much more challenging - though I'm not sure Labour has a strong 'working class' front bench spokesman - though of course it is less of an issue for them....
http://labourlist.org/2013/05/one-year-on-boris-isnt-working/
Yes, Labour needs to examine the danger UKIP presents to a core part of its base and however unpalatable it may seem in some quarters the Blue Labour meme could play a vital role.
I expect we will be hearing more of it over the next few years.
Cruddas is a politician and interested in power.
An excellent article from Henry. Sadly, EdM is not the leader to do what clearly should be done. He should spend more time talking to his constituents.
If UKIP keep building support, as 2015 approaches, the other parties are going to have to try to win over those voters. Not square Mr Farage.
Very well written, Mr Manson, even with the odd typo.
This variety of Labour supporter feels they are friendless, and only habit and tribal loyalty kept them voting Labour. That glue is getting weaker and when Ukip beckon, they can be attracted to them instead of sitting on their hands or voting for a party that seems to have deserted them.
It should be easy for Labour to re-connect but EdM isn't the man for that. Fortunately for Labour, the Tories still specialise in posh, professional politicians too, so EdM may still scrape a majority.
It is "wait in line!".
The priorities have been:
1. Cut central government spending
2. Transfer public sector employment to private sector.
3. Solve problems with key drivers of the economy:
- North Sea Oil & Gas extraction
- Global core industries (car manufacture, aerospace, pharmaceuticals etc.)
- Banking and Financial Services recovery, recapitalisation & restructure
4. Do 1-3 with minimum impact on employment and growth
5. Reduce then eliminate deficit and start reducing debt.
7. Get credit flowing to SMEs and households.
The coalition government is moving down the list slowly but surely. When it gets to 7, then the march of the small and regional makers can begin.
Can you plausibly argue for a different order of priorities?
Henry, I wish we had 'like' for article. This is the best I have read from anyone, in quite a long time.
As an ex Labour voter and now UKIP member I know exactly how these people feel.
If anything the tribally loyal Labour posters on here are as bad as some of their MPs for making WWC people feel like they have nobody representing them... The non existent white flight.... "I don't come from your area but I know the demographic better than you know the people..."
Oh ok then I'll vote UKIP
In the short-term they can probably square the circle by talking about competence a lot, which lets them fudge the actual policy direction, but it's hard to see them getting a lot of the voters they lost back under Ed Miliband. He has the same problem as Cameron - there are some things he just can't sell convincingly, and if he tries too hard he risks just making the incongruity more obvious.
I think they probably just need to resign themselves to some losses to UKIP and hope the Tories lose more.
"A sizeable number of Labour supporters in South Shields defected to UKIP"
There was definite evidence that Labour supporters particularly on Council estates were switching to UKIP during the Eastleigh Bye.
If polling day was one week later UKIP would have won Eastleigh.
While department spending has been cut in some cases, I believe overall spending is still up. The public sector wage bill has increased despite the reductions in headcount, because public sector wages are still rising. The problems with north sea oil/gas extraction were I believe introduced in the first budget, and then addressed in later budgets.
A higher priority has been their energy policy. The 'decarbonising' of Britain, which translates into higher energy prices for british businesses which I would think would drive car and aerospace manufacturers overseas.
Now you may feel that these changes were right, but they have certainly alienated a lot of public sector professionals like me. It is not just the WWC that feels alienated from the political establishment.
2. Reclassification of public sector jobs proceeds apace - tick
3. North Sea production severely damaged by tax grab - tick
- industry continues to shut down under threat of carbon taxation - tick
- banking festers on with its problems being ignored via QE and house price props - tick
4. Hope no-one notices the game is KTCDTR, and I won't be there when it blows up.
5. That's the next guy's problem
7. The last thing on my mind.
It was supposed to be 80% cutting spending, 20% raising taxes. Because there have been no spending cuts, it's all been loaded on taxes.
Frighteningly, it probably is the basis upon which most MPs consider sectors' importance.
The government has always been within this limit although he was pushing at its boundaries in Q4 2012. There was a small improvement in the forecast completion deadline in the OBR's March forecast, but essentially it was a snapshot of flat-lining deficit reduction over the next two years.
Deficit reduction accelerated in Q1 2013 and it is likely we will see both GDP growth forecasts revised up and deficit forecasts revised down in June when the next OBR EFO is due. The shift is likely to be reasonably significant and the meme of flat-lining will quickly disappear from the lips of the governments detractors..
The March snapshot of no short term movement should not therefore be interpreted as the government moving deficit reduction down its list of priorities.
Spending has been reduced but the welfare budget is essentially a variable cost linked to economic growth and unemployment. The spend on welfare (£10 bn higher than forecast) was the only major area of overspend (more than countered by underspend elsewhere). Osborne's move to cap increases to 1% per annum will see this problem eliminated over the rest of the parliamentary term given forecast or better growth and employment.
The forecast increase in North Sea output is a direct consequence of measures taken by Osborne, Cable and DECC to stimulate increased investment in the sector. It will start paying back with increased output from 2014 (maybe a little earlier if BoE comments are informed).
Energy pricing remains an economic problem whose solution is hampered by political commitments and policies. I see no real sign of there being major plans to reverse current policy. It is unlikely however to affect the existing car manufacturing and aerospace industries where capital investment costs and time to market are the main protective barriers to short term competitive shifts.
All in all, it is quite reasonable to be cautiously optimistic that the current recovery is solid (albeit with significant downside risks) and that the UK will perform relatively better than its main competitors over the short to medium term future. The fiscal targets of the government also look compatible with one of the very few countries with mixed AAA and AA+ credit ratings and low sovereign financing costs.
Likewise with foreign armed adventures, and higher EU contributions.
Target culture removes or undermines professional judgement and perhaps clinical responsibilities, how far it also stifles innovation is another point.. Was astounded that the problems highlighted at Bristol Eye Hospital re follow up appointments appeared to be left unaddressed over time. Management targets appeared to override clinical priorities or clinicians' independence. Schools have had to adapt to an examination regime which attempts to impose a rigid or rigorous style of marking, which works easily for maths/sciences but sits less well with subjects where judgements and evaluations are many shades of grey not black and white.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQ6JNwJLGqU&feature=player_embedded
The damage done to the North Sea far outweighs the anticipated recovery, although maybe shale gas might change that - once Davey is moved out of the way of preventing it. I note Osborne has successfully decapitated some DECC civil servants - two senior resignations recently.
Ford never moved Transit production to Turkey? Vauxhall is safe? With the loss of key metal alloy, chemical and component suppliers, UK industry is heavily under threat. The ECC Select Committee have just woken up to the implications of further oil refinery closures, the cost disadvantage faced by INEOS, aluminium smelter closures, and the higher global carbon emissions that result. They're just in handwringing mode, as are the Lords.
@MikeSmithson
I'm in favour of STV, not AV or FPTP.
The initial 'tax grab' led to extended negotiations between the government and the oil and gas extraction industry. This resulted in revisions which promoted new exploration, development and production in exchange for increased tax on mature production.
The change in planned investments between 2010 and 2013 are clearly shown in the following OBR tables:
But perhaps Ed Miliband could license a more suitable figure to lead such an approach. Ed Balls has a suitably muscular personality. Jim Murphy also fits the bill.
UKIP are taking and will be taking more and more of the Con/Lab/Lib party. Sure, UKIP are taking more from the Con part at the moment but each part will be duly served up and eaten. Bit by bit.
Furthermore, when it comes to the key bones of contention, Immigration, the EU and all the associated paraphenalia, Labour, like the Tories, are not going to budge much. ANything they do will be 9 parts BS and 1 part dressing. The marketing might change but the basic policy will not and the reality is people are losing patience with all the establishment parties and all their prevarication and obfuscation (as we are already seeing from the Tories yet again) will placate no one.
The reality is no matter how complex the difficulties in extracting the UK from this mess the electorate is becoming impatient and the political class who got us into this mess better get us out of it and out of it in no short order. Otherwise I can see last Thursday happening with increasingly more intensity
I don't know anything of the history, I just used to drive through and always wonder what happened.
In January 2011 BMW announced that it would be extending the Mini range with the launch of two new two-door sports crossover vehicles based on the Mini Paceman concept car, with a coupe version to enter production in 2011 and a roadster in 2012.
In March 2011 Jaguar Land Rover announced that it would be hiring an additional 1,500 staff at its Halewood plant, and signed over £2 billion of supply contracts with UK-based companies, to enable production of its new Range Rover Evoque model.
In April 2011 the MG Motor subsidiary of SAIC Motor announced that mass production had resumed at the Longbridge plant, as the first MG 6 to be produced in the United Kingdom came off the production line.
In May 2011 Jaguar unveiled plans to build the C-X75 petrol-electric hybrid supercar in the UK from 2013, with production to be in association with Williams F1.
Also in May, Aston Martin Lagonda confirmed that it was planning to revive the Lagonda marque, with the launch of two or three new models.
In an interview with Reuters in the same month, Carl-Peter Forster, the Chief Executive of Tata Motors, revealed that Jaguar Land Rover would be investing over £5 billion in product development over the succeeding five years.
In June, Nissan announced that the replacement for its Qashqai model would be designed and built in the UK, in a total investment of £192 million safeguarding around 6,000 jobs.
In June BMW announced an investment of £500 million in the UK over the subsequent three years as part of an expansion of the Mini range to seven models.
In September 2011, Jaguar Land Rover confirmed that it would be investing £355 million in the construction of a new engine plant near Wolverhampton, to manufacture a new family of four-cylinder petrol and diesel engines.
Later in the same month it was announced that the Jensen marque would be revived, with a new version of the Interceptor to be built by CPP Holdings at the former Jaguar factory Browns Lane in Coventry.
In November, Toyota announced plans to make the UK its sole European manufacturing base for hatchback versions of its next C-segment family car, resulting in the investment of over £100 million in its Burnaston plant and the creation of around 1,500 new jobs.
Yes, Ford moved production of the Transit Van to Turkey and Vauxhall is weak, but the net inbound investment in the car manufacturing industry is positive overall. The important thing is to win more than you lose. And that is what the UK seems to be doing at the moment.
@No_Offence_Alan
I think UKIP topped the poll in at least these:
Forest of Dean, Thanet North, Great Yarmouth, Boston&Skegness, Aylesbury.
Aylesbury had something to do with HS2 according to some reports.
@Jonathan
"One of the interesting questions for 2014 is whether the Locals and the Euros will be held on the same day. Not sure what the current status is. Could serious change the result."
I think the government will hold them on the same day to save money and avoid a very low turnout.
I was intending to go through all the results to see what the actual votes cast were, but I'll have to watch out in case someone else has already done it.
http://mhairi4eastville.wordpress.com/about/
http://www.lintonconservatives.co.uk/page4.htm
It is interesting to see that the Better Together folks are just as afraid of anti-establishment politicians as the yes to AV brigade though.
As a rare Scottish UKIP voter (when they have a candidate) I will be voting Yes in the independence referendum. That probably puts me in a very small group. Then again I'd secede from the lot of you tomorrow if I could!
A 3.8% Labour -> Ukip swing would turn the seat purple at a general election, even if there was no movement from Conservative to Ukip. Labour have to hope that the Ukip support stays more or less where it is, if socially conservative Labour voters continue their shift to Ukip, it could be fatal.
She was miles better than Lloyd wasn't she?!
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4376393,00.html
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4340140,00.html
As someone said earlier, they came very close to winning the most votes in Harlow.
oil was almost dried up. You cannot have it both ways.
As for Labour we all know about the accuracy of Gordon Brown's 'costed' budgets. Wasn't he something like £400 billion out on his estmiates from 2007-2009....
The problem for the major parties is it doesn't matter whatever purile line of attack they attempt it doesn't take very long to tear to shreds the other party's previous offerings or candidates in exactly the same way and usually one can do it ten times over.......
Blimey. Oskar Lafontaine, who helped set up the #euro, has just called for it to be scrapped: http://f.hypotheses.org/wp-content/blogs.dir/981/files/2013/05/Lafontaines-U-turn-on-the-Euro.gif …"
https://twitter.com/benedictbrogan