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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP drop 3pc into third place in new YouGov EP2014 poll
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP drop 3pc into third place in new YouGov EP2014 poll
This looks set to be low turnout election which presents a huge challenge for the pollsters. They might accurately reflect the pattern of support as is being told to them but everything depends on whether people actually do take the trouble to exercise their vote.
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Lab 27 (+14)
Con 17 (-9)
UKIP 17 (+4)
LibDem 5 (-6)
SNP 2 (nc)
Green 1 (-1)
Plaid 1 (nc)
Btw, does anyone seriously think Labour are going to double their 2009 vote?
This is basically all that Ed has managed to write on his blank pieces of paper - 'Blame the Bankers'.
Not much to show, is it.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/boris-johnson-backs-met-in-bid-to-use-water-cannon-in-london-9201618.html
Go Bojo!
Of course core Labour vote have final salary pensions - they don't seem to care about us poor souls stuck on defined contributions..
If you think about it, that isn't true at all. George Osborne has made pensions more flexible, yes, but he isn't putting more money into the pensions pot. He's just making the whole system more flexible.
The people who are getting more money are the low paid and working couples who are planning children.
The Conservatives had two choices of narrative with this budget: they could've said "the economic troubles are over, so it's time for everyone to get some rewards for their hard work over the past few years". Or they could've said "sorry, there's still further to go, so there's no goodies yet". In the event, they went for neither, they dished out a few goodies yet still at the same time kept up their rhetoric of the need for further cuts and how the work wasn't done. At best, that will come across as an incoherent jumble, and at worst it looks like a cynical attempt to win votes, which would not leave people impressed even if they benefitted.
That gap should have been reduced by postal votes and I'd have thought it would be possible to calculate the average effect.
What exactly is it that hard working people do that you don't Tories. Horrific own goal.
And it stems from his sheer vaccuousness. A conviction politician would have had something to say because they'd have an opinion on what they had just heard. Miliband has no principles or convictions, he will say whatever will garner votes and, without the opportunity to consider what stances may prove most popular instead chose to say nothing. In the biggest political set piece of the year, he had literally nothing to say about the budget. He is not fit to be a leader of anything, let alone the country.
Many Labour supporters would appear to think that makes them undeserving.
Those that work hard and behave responsibly will see the fruits of their efforts.
This was a good coalition budget by George and Danny. It also is most definitely a coalition budget, with very little fighting between the parties, at least little visible fighting.
And yet instead of trying to sort out their campaigning infrastructure he is d!cking around creating stuff that no one reads. He then does it so badly that it plays into the narrative that the Tories haven't got a clue.
"What was the biggest *^&$up of the entire last Parliament?"
"10p Tax"
"Why don't we revisit that...?"
Tories must despair at M. Green.
No it doesn't its a comical idiotic own goal. Nothing wrong with having a good laugh at it. And as for you calling someone else a bot! Irony is dead.
Another few thousand converts to UKIP. LOL
For the record I thought it made him look a tit, but it's amazing that attacks on Ed M are a diversion or irrelevant, or same old same old, but Tory posts something stupid on Twitter is not merely 'worth having a good laugh at' but something significant. Both cannot possibly be true I think.
Another few thousand converts to UKIP. LOL
If I am to believe the most fervent of UKIP supporters, saying anything, or nothing, also leads to thousands of new converts to UKIP. Why would this particularly appeal to them? Seems like it would play to Labour more than UKIP.
"Seems like it would play to Labour more than UKIP"
Yeah it will.
Lab and UKIP on 27% each.
Con on 20%
LD on 10%
Greens on 8%
Others on 8%
It is funny and - like most things in politics - won't change much of much. But it does show you just how dysfunctional CCHQ is under Shapps. Cameron has wanted rid for a while this will only make him think more so.
is it that few? dunno, depends if it includes interweb bingo i guess
"Not only did the evil Tories close down all the Bingo halls with their smoking ban** now to rub salt into the wounds they dropped the tax on live bingo but not on the interweb bingo everyone changed to after so they could have a cig while playing - Tories boooooo!!!!"
** obv that bit relies on people forgetting the smoking ban was Lab
(this is just messing about btw)
I particularly like the one showing the uselessness of economic forecasts in that with latest revisions upwards, the OBR prediction for this year is about back to where it was in 2010.
Now look at it under Shapps.
For a few days now I've been thinking that the authorities aqpear to be getting nowhere in analysing the data they've received. In which case, perhaps it's time to let the wisdom of the crowds onto it. Release the raw (or as raw as possible) radar and satellite data to the public, and let us analyse it.
This won't happen, especially for the military radar data. But there might be ghosts in the data that can only be obtained when the data is combined with other sources.
They appear to be doing a terrible job of it at the moment.
Two fat scroungers, 88
Didn't one of the more enlightened Tories ask why they had such a problem up north.....?
I agree with you on that and this from a man who knew how to win elections -
Norman Tebbit Attacks 'Bedroom Tax', Tory Peer Says It Will Cost Conservatives At Election.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/03/19/norman-tebbit-bedroom-tax-conservative-party_n_4994203.html
The pension changes vastly increase the alternatives to annuities, and significantly reduce the market for annuities. Who is hurt by this? Well mostly it is the City, though they will at least have increased opportunities in other areas (Legal and General dropped 8% today but Hargreaves Lansdown went up 15%).
But annuites have been funded largely by the purchase of gilts. So fewer annuities means fewer purchasers of govrrnment gilts. Fewer purchases means that it will be harder for future governments to fund borrowing by selling government debt, or at least putting up the price.
So one effect of Danny and Georges policy is to make it harder and more expensive for a future government to go on a borrowing binge. This is a financial chastity belt being fixed to the organs of the two Eds. Clever, clever George and Danny!
SeanT - Out of curiousity why does your dear mum despise Ed Miliband? I know he's not that popular with people, my brother sees him as a bit of an irrelevance and I know plenty of others who have their doubts. But I've not come across anyone who despises him (except for the mob who despise all politicians except those down to earth characters in Ukip). He's just seen as not very good.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZycGkwUDI2dG9jdVlaek9nTUpnYnc#gid=0
Oh my God If there was a young tebbit around would we be in trouble.
Shapps however is a fool.
Don't forget that my rather delayed post-race analysis of Australia is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/australia-post-race-analysis.html
He seems, to me at least, to have no inkling that markets can and DO help Mr and Mrs Average and below average nor that " profit" isn't a dirty word implying someone has "lost". Not all markets are perfect of course but most are pretty bloody good at allocating economic activity for the benefit of the most number of ( ordinary ) people.
Ed seems to rather oddly wade in blindly to things like "excess land held by building firms", or " freeze on energy for two years" to an over reliance on "bashing bankers" as a panacea for too many ills, without any apparent grasp of the adverse knock on effects. He worries me frankly. Well intentioned but unaware of the real commercial world that about 4 in 5 of us live and work in.
In part this cut to a more social form of gambling came from increased taxes on FOBT. Didn't Ed want something done about these as recently as last week?
Ed looked flatfooted by George, but as ever it takes a few days for the budget revisions to be picked over.
As amusingly incompetent as Shapps obviously is it's just not credible to shove all the blame onto him for this wonderful CCHQ PR 'master strategy'. It wasn't Shapps who came up with "We're all in this together", nor is the blame primarily on Shapps for this hilarity.
This has out of touch twit written all over it. Hence the shrieking on here from the usual out of touch twerps, as they still don't understand that Osbrowne's inability to stop himself from posturing and 'master strategising' at every opportunity means this kind of thing is inevitable.