Sauce for the goose – politicalbetting.com

System

Sauce for the goose – politicalbetting.com

WH 24 is now over, and the campaign teams are being wound down. Popping up in the campaign were various Brits seeking to give assistance to our transatlantic friends, Labour famously promised to send a troop of election helpers to the Democrats and Nigel Farage had job conflict between Clacton and Mar a Lago. The consensus of the British political class is that this is no big thing and campaigning across the pond is an established tradition. All well and good.

Read the full story here

DecrepiterJohnL

Labour has long used American electoral advisors and the Conservatives Australian ones.

ETA Social media analysis and targeted advertising has long been a feature too, as fans of Dominic Cummings or Carol Cadwalladr will know.

DecrepiterJohnL

Several MPs ‘considered taking their own lives over job pressures’
https://metro.co.uk/2024/11/12/several-mps-considered-taking-lives-job-pressures-21970683/

Sunil_Prasannan

As you say, Farage himself spent a fair bit of time Stateside

MattW

4th. I don't believe it; my previous FPT was dethreaded again.

Thank-you @Cyclefree for the (last) header. It's good to see you back - what's the book?

I'm not personally that keen on the header - imo too much heat and not enough light. I'll repeat the comment I made on the last thread.

--------------------------

I'm skim reading sections of the Makin Report, but it's 250 pages and a full "read and absorb" would take a full one or two days.

I haven't found 'Welby lied' yet. And I won't believe in detail what I read in any of the media without reading the original in full - there are too many different agendas. I have found 'Welby failed to sufficiently take notice of, follow through and report things that should have been red flags when they came through his attention', relating to 2013. And also 'Welby failed to follow up the wider implications of contact with particular victims'.

The themes I'm picking up around what went wrong are that 'good systems' are not enough, when there are public reputations, egos, a wish to avoid controversy in your cherished tradition, and pressure to conform involved. Iwerne had some good practices in place, but there were blind spots which the abuser could exploit - and cross-cutting checks and balances were not in place (and would then require to be operated) to catch these.

Some were warned personally by others who were aware that Smyth was a 'bad un', or told 'steer clear of John Smyth' (including Welby when he was in his early 20s in the early 1980s, a junior leader at Iwerne, and potentially at risk of being groomed himself).

But dots weren't joined up, warnings were not clear and done via nods and winks, and not followed through.

The complexity of the Church of England (it is in practice a stack of doctrinal-tradition-based networks with limited intercommunication, and some mutual suspicion, and other denominations which form their own further networks in the stack) make cross-cutting reporting / co-ordination more difficult.

It's an important note that this abuse occurred at "camps" - remote annual events organised by an external trust, rather than "at base", which creates different opportunities for an abuser. They were linked to a separate organisation that organised those events where the abuser situated himself, and later the abuser switched to a different separate organisation.

The abuse was similar in modus operandi to that by Cyril Smith in the childrens homes he had influence over, also in the early 1980s - figures of authority exploiting their positions. That was also described as 'caning boys' iirc, and was 'sloped shoulders on' too.

One important one is to put responsibility where it belongs, and make systems properly resilient. Another is not to pretend this is just the Church, which will be to make the same mistakes that were made here.

I'm moving towards thinking that ++Welby needs to step down for acts of omission in 2013.

Taz

Crikey @TheScreamingEagles that's a shocker on opening the thread up !!!! Trump's Butt.

TheScreamingEagles

Taz said:

Crikey @TheScreamingEagles that's a shocker on opening the thread up !!!! Trump's Butt.

It was that or a photo of Farage in his shorts.

eek

MattW said:

4th. I don't believe it; my previous FPT was dethreaded again.

Thank-you @Cyclefree for the (last) header. It's good to see you back - what's the book?

I'm not personally that keen on the header - imo too much heat and not enough light. I'll repeat the comment I made on the last thread.

--------------------------

I'm skim reading sections of the Makin Report, but it's 250 pages and a full "read and absorb" would take a full one or two days.

I haven't found 'Welby lied' yet. And I won't believe in detail what I read in any of the media without reading the original in full - there are too many different agendas. I have found 'Welby failed to sufficiently take notice of, follow through and report things that should have been red flags when they came through his attention', relating to 2013. And also 'Welby failed to follow up the wider implications of contact with particular victims'.

The themes I'm picking up around what went wrong are that 'good systems' are not enough, when there are public reputations, egos, a wish to avoid controversy in your cherished tradition, and pressure to conform involved. Iwerne had some good practices in place, but there were blind spots which the abuser could exploit - and cross-cutting checks and balances were not in place (and would then require to be operated) to catch these.

Some were warned personally by others who were aware that Smyth was a 'bad un', or told 'steer clear of John Smyth' (including Welby when he was in his early 20s in the early 1980s, a junior leader at Iwerne, and potentially at risk of being groomed himself).

But dots weren't joined up, warnings were not clear and done via nods and winks, and not followed through.

The complexity of the Church of England (it is in practice a stack of doctrinal-tradition-based networks with limited intercommunication, and some mutual suspicion, and other denominations which form their own further networks in the stack) make cross-cutting reporting / co-ordination more difficult.

It's an important note that this abuse occurred at "camps" - remote annual events organised by an external trust, rather than "at base", which creates different opportunities for an abuser. They were linked to a separate organisation that organised those events where the abuser situated himself, and later the abuser switched to a different separate organisation.

The abuse was similar in modus operandi to that by Cyril Smith in the childrens homes he had influence over, also in the early 1980s - figures of authority exploiting their positions. That was also described as 'caning boys' iirc, and was 'sloped shoulders on' too.

One important one is to put responsibility where it belongs, and make systems properly resilient. Another is not to pretend this is just the Church, which will be to make the same mistakes that were made here.

I'm moving towards thinking that ++Welby needs to step down for acts of omission in 2013.

Given that you've reposted - I will repost my reply

I've now seen the letter that was sent to +Newcastle that caused her to make her public comment.

I can see why ++Welby needs to go...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj0je7mg8ygo

and https://newcastle.anglican.org/news/a-statement-from-the-rt-revd-dr-helen-ann-hartley-bishop-of-newcastle.php

kjh

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Labour has long used American electoral advisors and the Conservatives Australian ones.

The LDs also use the Democrat's software.

Interesting article @Alanbrooke but the big difference is the election spending restrictions (although the Tories did increase the national limits, unreasonably in my opinion). But regardless of the recent increases they are still very low in comparison to the US, particularly at the local level.

As discussed yesterday Reform needs to learn, and more importantly be able to implement (which is a challenge), local campaigning techniques and for this they will need lots of local fit supporters, not lots of money (although a good dollop of that does help).

I think they are learning. Their literature presentation during the GE was good.

TimS

The main effect of this new header is me now feeling hungry and quite fancying some goose (with sauce).

Big_G_NorthWales

kjh said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Labour has long used American electoral advisors and the Conservatives Australian ones.

The LDs also use the Democrat's software.

Interesting article @Alanbrooke but the big difference is the election spending restrictions (although the Tories did increase the national limits, unreasonably in my opinion). But regardless of the recent increases they are still very low in comparison to the US, particularly at the local level.

As discussed yesterday Reform needs to learn, and more importantly be able to implement (which is a challenge), local campaigning techniques and for this they will need lots of local fit supporters, not lots of money (although a good dollop of that does help).

I think they are learning. Their literature presentation during the GE was good.

Whilst not supporting Reform their literature and marketing plus PR is good and looks fresh

rottenborough

Excellent @Alanbrooke

Labour are looking more and more like one term and sadly then we face our Trump moment.

DecrepiterJohnL

Betfair is back.

Sandpit

Man United 13th.

Casino_Royale

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Betfair is back.

Make My Betfair Account Profitable Again

Sean_F

Pre-election, I wrote off Reform totally. Even in May, their local election performance was distinctly underwhelming.

But, they had an extremely good election campaign, and finished up with four more MP's than UKIP ever managed. They're tapping into a group of voters that UKIP could not reach, and obviously benefitting from the fact that neither the Conservatives, nor Labour are popular, right now. They seem to be targeting quite successfully in local by-elections.

At this stage, I think we can assume they'll be winning somewhere around 100-200 seats in the county council elections.

Pro_Rata

One of my doubts around Reform would be whether they can hold a parliamentary party together. Farage's Euro delegations in the 2010s typically eroded by up to half in each session iirc. You then have seat retention issues where the splitters have split.

Now, this may not matter for a vote share in the 20s. Lose one, gain three. I don't think they will advance into the high 20s in a UK election without a certain degree of professionalisation and internal stability - a GE is different from voting for someone to grandstand in Brussels, and the new right parties that have succeeded best in Western Europe have had to work hard in this respect to advance through the 20s. Reform are very much at square one on that journey.

MaxPB

Following on from the Sam Harris discussion in the last thread I think it's worth watching this video my wife sent me this morning:

https://youtu.be/tSw04BwQy4M?si=t8Y5LZFR702kX6xl

I've subscribed to her channel because her other videos are great too. The joys of gardening leave and nap time!

Pulpstar

Casino_Royale said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Betfair is back.

Make My Betfair Account Profitable Again

I've managed to lose £20.61 at Betfair over the last 30 days with the profits at Smarkets and Star Sports Bets. Rishi leaving early Nov was particularly good news for not getting any premium charges.

TheScreamingEagles

Sean_F said:

Pre-election, I wrote off Reform totally. Even in May, their local election performance was distinctly underwhelming.

But, they had an extremely good election campaign, and finished up with four more MP's than UKIP ever managed. They're tapping into a group of voters that UKIP could not reach, and obviously benefitting from the fact that neither the Conservatives, nor Labour are popular, right now. They seem to be targeting quite successfully in local by-elections.

At this stage, I think we can assume they'll be winning somewhere around 100-200 seats in the county council elections.

I see there is a split emerging in Reform.

Tice has said he doesn’t want the support of the Tommy Robinson mob which has annoyed some.

Sandpit

Fascinating comment from Nate Silver on partisanship, and how the Democrats preferred to cast out anyone who wasn’t 100% behind their agenda as if it was a religion.

https://x.com/emilyekins/status/1856187323102441792

Pro_Rata

Sean_F said:

Pre-election, I wrote off Reform totally. Even in May, their local election performance was distinctly underwhelming.

But, they had an extremely good election campaign, and finished up with four more MP's than UKIP ever managed. They're tapping into a group of voters that UKIP could not reach, and obviously benefitting from the fact that neither the Conservatives, nor Labour are popular, right now. They seem to be targeting quite successfully in local by-elections.

At this stage, I think we can assume they'll be winning somewhere around 100-200 seats in the county council elections.

I think they had* been averaging around 13% where they stood in local by-elections, which is not too far from where their national vote share stood.

* I looked a couple of weeks ago.

maxh

Thanks @Alanbrooke (for the last one too which I read but didn't have a chance to comment on).

Whilst I think the broad thrust (Republicans and Reform natural allies) is right, I suspect Trump won't be that interested.

Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects

MaxPB

Casino_Royale said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Personally I don’t put pronouns on my emails.

But if people want to, surely free speech should allow them to? It’s making people feel awkward for not that’s the issue I think?

I have absolutely no issue with people choosing to put pronouns on their footers.
However, most HR departments (certainly in the public sector and public sector-adjacent companies) are nowadays quite keen to insist on it.

There's a social pressure to do it as well. If you don't, you stand out and people might think you're a secret bigot.

At my last workplace they were gearing up to make it mandatory as part of the inclusivity drive they started in the summer. They added it to slack and for new employees it was made a mandatory field in the profile on sign up and everyone got email reminders to add them into their HR profiles.

TimS

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

Pre-election, I wrote off Reform totally. Even in May, their local election performance was distinctly underwhelming.

But, they had an extremely good election campaign, and finished up with four more MP's than UKIP ever managed. They're tapping into a group of voters that UKIP could not reach, and obviously benefitting from the fact that neither the Conservatives, nor Labour are popular, right now. They seem to be targeting quite successfully in local by-elections.

At this stage, I think we can assume they'll be winning somewhere around 100-200 seats in the county council elections.

I see there is a split emerging in Reform.

Tick has said he doesn’t want the support of the Tommy Robinson mob which has annoyed some.

That's the Tories' best hope: that Reform splits between the ultras and the bloke down the pub tendency, as UKIP did. With a punchy Badenoch at the help they may then get back some of the Boris-Brexiteer right, and they should be happy to keep their distance from the Tommy Robinson faction.

TimS

maxh said:

Thanks @Alanbrooke (for the last one too which I read but didn't have a chance to comment on).

Whilst I think the broad thrust (Republicans and Reform natural allies) is right, I suspect Trump won't be that interested.

Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects

For the sake of my sanity and my kids' education I'd quite like to see the UK and EU banning both TwiX and TikTok.

Cookie

TimS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

Pre-election, I wrote off Reform totally. Even in May, their local election performance was distinctly underwhelming.

But, they had an extremely good election campaign, and finished up with four more MP's than UKIP ever managed. They're tapping into a group of voters that UKIP could not reach, and obviously benefitting from the fact that neither the Conservatives, nor Labour are popular, right now. They seem to be targeting quite successfully in local by-elections.

At this stage, I think we can assume they'll be winning somewhere around 100-200 seats in the county council elections.

I see there is a split emerging in Reform.

Tick has said he doesn’t want the support of the Tommy Robinson mob which has annoyed some.

That's the Tories' best hope: that Reform splits between the ultras and the bloke down the pub tendency, as UKIP did. With a punchy Badenoch at the help they may then get back some of the Boris-Brexiteer right, and they should be happy to keep their distance from the Tommy Robinson faction.

A reform split doesn't really help the Tories because the Tories problem isn't Reform coming ahead of them in individual seats but voters who might otherwise vote Tory voting for a different right wing party*, meaning that they then don't beat Labour or the Lib Dems in individual seats. Having two right wing parties just compounds the problem.

*Note I did not say 'splitting the vote', because I recognise that many or perhaps the majority of Ref voters wouldn't blandly switch to the Tories in the absence of Reform.

Sandpit

Oh, so the most Puerto Rican county in Florida, possibly in the whole USA, flipped for Trump.

https://x.com/dailymail/status/1855639624971915595

But a comedian told a bad joke.

Cookie

FPT:

Casino_Royale said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Personally I don’t put pronouns on my emails.

But if people want to, surely free speech should allow them to? It’s making people feel awkward for not that’s the issue I think?

I have absolutely no issue with people choosing to put pronouns on their footers.
However, most HR departments (certainly in the public sector and public sector-adjacent companies) are nowadays quite keen to insist on it.

There's a social pressure to do it as well. If you don't, you stand out and people might think you're a secret bigot.

On social pressure at work: I was taken aback yesterday when a friend at work (public sector / big city) said something which hinted he thought both voting Conservative and voting Brexit was an acceptable position to take.
I do know him quite well.
But absolutely no-one in the public sector admits to either of these. Presumably there are some Tory voters and Leave voters in the public sector, but it's something you keep very quiet.

Theuniondivvie

The actual Dem campaign as opposed to the version being constructed by all the aftertimers.

The Serfs (youtube.com/theserftimes)
@theserfstv
"If what you want is a centrist campaign that's quiet on trans issues, tough on the border, distances itself from Palestinians, talks a lot about law and order, and reaches out to moderate Republicans, that candidate existed and she just lost"
~John Oliver on dems moving right
1:13 am · 12 Nov 2024

https://x.com/theserfstv/status/1856143282998284697

Dopermean

On topic:
"Could GOP fund right wing campaigning in the UK?"
This is even more divorced from reality than yesterday's editorial contribution.
Rightwing US donors and other foreign individuals have been funding the 55 Tufton street think-tanks for years, probably decades, and the Tufton street think tanks have been enmeshed in the Conservative party and the rightwing media for a similar period, reference Madsen Pirie's autobiography in which he describes the weekly alignment meetings.
Some of these people / groups also fund / funded UKIP, Reform, Reclaim and Yaxley-Lennon.
These people are from disinterested in the domestic politics of foreign countries.

DecrepiterJohnL

Cookie said:

FPT:

Casino_Royale said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Personally I don’t put pronouns on my emails.

But if people want to, surely free speech should allow them to? It’s making people feel awkward for not that’s the issue I think?

I have absolutely no issue with people choosing to put pronouns on their footers.
However, most HR departments (certainly in the public sector and public sector-adjacent companies) are nowadays quite keen to insist on it.

There's a social pressure to do it as well. If you don't, you stand out and people might think you're a secret bigot.

On social pressure at work: I was taken aback yesterday when a friend at work (public sector / big city) said something which hinted he thought both voting Conservative and voting Brexit was an acceptable position to take.
I do know him quite well.
But absolutely no-one in the public sector admits to either of these. Presumably there are some Tory voters and Leave voters in the public sector, but it's something you keep very quiet.

I'm not sure we ever discussed party politics at work in the private sector.

ETA this echoes Dominic Sandbrook's take on the American election. Ordinary people do not follow politics very closely, if at all.

Pulpstar

Theuniondivvie said:

The actual Dem campaign as opposed to the version being constructed by all the aftertimers.

The Serfs (youtube.com/theserftimes)
@theserfstv
"If what you want is a centrist campaign that's quiet on trans issues, tough on the border, distances itself from Palestinians, talks a lot about law and order, and reaches out to moderate Republicans, that candidate existed and she just lost"
~John Oliver on dems moving right
1:13 am · 12 Nov 2024

https://x.com/theserfstv/status/1856143282998284697

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56516332

US President Joe Biden has put Vice-President Kamala Harris in charge of controlling migration at the southern border following a big influx of new arrivals.

Mr Biden said he was giving her a "tough job" but that she was "the most qualified person to do it".

Barnesian

kjh said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Labour has long used American electoral advisors and the Conservatives Australian ones.

The LDs also use the Democrat's software.

Interesting article @Alanbrooke but the big difference is the election spending restrictions (although the Tories did increase the national limits, unreasonably in my opinion). But regardless of the recent increases they are still very low in comparison to the US, particularly at the local level.

As discussed yesterday Reform needs to learn, and more importantly be able to implement (which is a challenge), local campaigning techniques and for this they will need lots of local fit supporters, not lots of money (although a good dollop of that does help).

I think they are learning. Their literature presentation during the GE was good.

They are modelling themselves on the Lib Dems according to Richard Tice.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/20/reform-can-learn-from-lib-dems-on-ground-campaigning-says-richard-tice

Pulpstar

Harris' disastrous efforts to control the border were always going to be an albatross around her neck. So she needed a good economy *feel*, and inflation killed that.

eek

Barnesian said:

kjh said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Labour has long used American electoral advisors and the Conservatives Australian ones.

The LDs also use the Democrat's software.

Interesting article @Alanbrooke but the big difference is the election spending restrictions (although the Tories did increase the national limits, unreasonably in my opinion). But regardless of the recent increases they are still very low in comparison to the US, particularly at the local level.

As discussed yesterday Reform needs to learn, and more importantly be able to implement (which is a challenge), local campaigning techniques and for this they will need lots of local fit supporters, not lots of money (although a good dollop of that does help).

I think they are learning. Their literature presentation during the GE was good.

They are modelling themselves on the Lib Dems according to Richard Tice.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/20/reform-can-learn-from-lib-dems-on-ground-campaigning-says-richard-tice

That requires people actually going out and knocking on doors - I just don't see it personally...

Malmesbury

eek said:

MattW said:

4th. I don't believe it; my previous FPT was dethreaded again.

Thank-you @Cyclefree for the (last) header. It's good to see you back - what's the book?

I'm not personally that keen on the header - imo too much heat and not enough light. I'll repeat the comment I made on the last thread.

--------------------------

I'm skim reading sections of the Makin Report, but it's 250 pages and a full "read and absorb" would take a full one or two days.

I haven't found 'Welby lied' yet. And I won't believe in detail what I read in any of the media without reading the original in full - there are too many different agendas. I have found 'Welby failed to sufficiently take notice of, follow through and report things that should have been red flags when they came through his attention', relating to 2013. And also 'Welby failed to follow up the wider implications of contact with particular victims'.

The themes I'm picking up around what went wrong are that 'good systems' are not enough, when there are public reputations, egos, a wish to avoid controversy in your cherished tradition, and pressure to conform involved. Iwerne had some good practices in place, but there were blind spots which the abuser could exploit - and cross-cutting checks and balances were not in place (and would then require to be operated) to catch these.

Some were warned personally by others who were aware that Smyth was a 'bad un', or told 'steer clear of John Smyth' (including Welby when he was in his early 20s in the early 1980s, a junior leader at Iwerne, and potentially at risk of being groomed himself).

But dots weren't joined up, warnings were not clear and done via nods and winks, and not followed through.

The complexity of the Church of England (it is in practice a stack of doctrinal-tradition-based networks with limited intercommunication, and some mutual suspicion, and other denominations which form their own further networks in the stack) make cross-cutting reporting / co-ordination more difficult.

It's an important note that this abuse occurred at "camps" - remote annual events organised by an external trust, rather than "at base", which creates different opportunities for an abuser. They were linked to a separate organisation that organised those events where the abuser situated himself, and later the abuser switched to a different separate organisation.

The abuse was similar in modus operandi to that by Cyril Smith in the childrens homes he had influence over, also in the early 1980s - figures of authority exploiting their positions. That was also described as 'caning boys' iirc, and was 'sloped shoulders on' too.

One important one is to put responsibility where it belongs, and make systems properly resilient. Another is not to pretend this is just the Church, which will be to make the same mistakes that were made here.

I'm moving towards thinking that ++Welby needs to step down for acts of omission in 2013.

Given that you've reposted - I will repost my reply

I've now seen the letter that was sent to +Newcastle that caused her to make her public comment.

I can see why ++Welby needs to go...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj0je7mg8ygo

and https://newcastle.anglican.org/news/a-statement-from-the-rt-revd-dr-helen-ann-hartley-bishop-of-newcastle.php

“Just sort it out so the Proper Person is reinstated, regardless of what he did”. Absolutely no pressure. Signed The CEO”

ManOfGwent

Cookie said:

FPT:

Casino_Royale said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Personally I don’t put pronouns on my emails.

But if people want to, surely free speech should allow them to? It’s making people feel awkward for not that’s the issue I think?

I have absolutely no issue with people choosing to put pronouns on their footers.
However, most HR departments (certainly in the public sector and public sector-adjacent companies) are nowadays quite keen to insist on it.

There's a social pressure to do it as well. If you don't, you stand out and people might think you're a secret bigot.

On social pressure at work: I was taken aback yesterday when a friend at work (public sector / big city) said something which hinted he thought both voting Conservative and voting Brexit was an acceptable position to take.
I do know him quite well.
But absolutely no-one in the public sector admits to either of these. Presumably there are some Tory voters and Leave voters in the public sector, but it's something you keep very quiet.

As someone who is a Brexit and Tory voter and have worked across several Whitehall departments, we are vanishingly rare. Scottish nationalism is more socially acceptable. Definitely would not enhance career progression to be open about it.

Theuniondivvie

.

Pulpstar said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The actual Dem campaign as opposed to the version being constructed by all the aftertimers.

The Serfs (youtube.com/theserftimes)
@theserfstv
"If what you want is a centrist campaign that's quiet on trans issues, tough on the border, distances itself from Palestinians, talks a lot about law and order, and reaches out to moderate Republicans, that candidate existed and she just lost"
~John Oliver on dems moving right
1:13 am · 12 Nov 2024

https://x.com/theserfstv/status/1856143282998284697

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56516332

US President Joe Biden has put Vice-President Kamala Harris in charge of controlling migration at the southern border following a big influx of new arrivals.

Mr Biden said he was giving her a "tough job" but that she was "the most qualified person to do it".

And the Harris campaign was about what would be, not what has gone. The Dems were certainly promising to be tough on the border for all the good it did them.

Pulpstar

Theuniondivvie said:

.

Pulpstar said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The actual Dem campaign as opposed to the version being constructed by all the aftertimers.

The Serfs (youtube.com/theserftimes)
@theserfstv
"If what you want is a centrist campaign that's quiet on trans issues, tough on the border, distances itself from Palestinians, talks a lot about law and order, and reaches out to moderate Republicans, that candidate existed and she just lost"
~John Oliver on dems moving right
1:13 am · 12 Nov 2024

https://x.com/theserfstv/status/1856143282998284697

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56516332

US President Joe Biden has put Vice-President Kamala Harris in charge of controlling migration at the southern border following a big influx of new arrivals.

Mr Biden said he was giving her a "tough job" but that she was "the most qualified person to do it".

And the Harris campaign was about what would be, not what has gone. The Dems were certainly promising to be tough on the border for all the good it did them.

You can't run on that as the incumbent party lol.

Sandpit

Pulpstar said:

Harris' disastrous efforts to control the border were always going to be an albatross around her neck. So she needed a good economy *feel*, and inflation killed that.

She was always a terrible candidate, as demonstrated in the 2020 primaries.

It was just that when Biden stood aside, that everyone decided she was suddenly the best possible ambassador for the Democratic Party.

Sandpit

Theuniondivvie said:

.

Pulpstar said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The actual Dem campaign as opposed to the version being constructed by all the aftertimers.

The Serfs (youtube.com/theserftimes)
@theserfstv
"If what you want is a centrist campaign that's quiet on trans issues, tough on the border, distances itself from Palestinians, talks a lot about law and order, and reaches out to moderate Republicans, that candidate existed and she just lost"
~John Oliver on dems moving right
1:13 am · 12 Nov 2024

https://x.com/theserfstv/status/1856143282998284697

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56516332

US President Joe Biden has put Vice-President Kamala Harris in charge of controlling migration at the southern border following a big influx of new arrivals.

Mr Biden said he was giving her a "tough job" but that she was "the most qualified person to do it".

And the Harris campaign was about what would be, not what has gone. The Dems were certainly promising to be tough on the border for all the good it did them.

Unburdened by what has been.

Whatever the f*** that means.

Theuniondivvie

Dopermean said:

On topic:
"Could GOP fund right wing campaigning in the UK?"
This is even more divorced from reality than yesterday's editorial contribution.
Rightwing US donors and other foreign individuals have been funding the 55 Tufton street think-tanks for years, probably decades, and the Tufton street think tanks have been enmeshed in the Conservative party and the rightwing media for a similar period, reference Madsen Pirie's autobiography in which he describes the weekly alignment meetings.
Some of these people / groups also fund / funded UKIP, Reform, Reclaim and Yaxley-Lennon.
These people are from disinterested in the domestic politics of foreign countries.

LGB Alliance also based at 55 Tufton St. Quite a lot of flocking of birds of a feather at that address.

Pulpstar

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Harris' disastrous efforts to control the border were always going to be an albatross around her neck. So she needed a good economy *feel*, and inflation killed that.

She was always a terrible candidate, as demonstrated in the 2020 primaries.

It was just that when Biden stood aside, that everyone decided she was suddenly the best possible ambassador for the Democratic Party.

It would have ripped the Democrat party apart to chose anyone else, and likely ended up with a similar result just constituted differently (More Dems staying at home, fewer Dem to Trump switchers)

Pulpstar

Just noticed looking at the 2020 results a chance of a tie was actually quite high. Assuming all states had the same trend that they did a Biden lead of 3.36 to 3.90% would have produced a 269-269 result.

TimS

Pulpstar said:

Theuniondivvie said:

.

Pulpstar said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The actual Dem campaign as opposed to the version being constructed by all the aftertimers.

The Serfs (youtube.com/theserftimes)
@theserfstv
"If what you want is a centrist campaign that's quiet on trans issues, tough on the border, distances itself from Palestinians, talks a lot about law and order, and reaches out to moderate Republicans, that candidate existed and she just lost"
~John Oliver on dems moving right
1:13 am · 12 Nov 2024

https://x.com/theserfstv/status/1856143282998284697

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-56516332

US President Joe Biden has put Vice-President Kamala Harris in charge of controlling migration at the southern border following a big influx of new arrivals.

Mr Biden said he was giving her a "tough job" but that she was "the most qualified person to do it".

And the Harris campaign was about what would be, not what has gone. The Dems were certainly promising to be tough on the border for all the good it did them.

You can't run on that as the incumbent party lol.

As the Tories found to their cost earlier this year.

Taz

Theuniondivvie said:

Dopermean said:

On topic:
"Could GOP fund right wing campaigning in the UK?"
This is even more divorced from reality than yesterday's editorial contribution.
Rightwing US donors and other foreign individuals have been funding the 55 Tufton street think-tanks for years, probably decades, and the Tufton street think tanks have been enmeshed in the Conservative party and the rightwing media for a similar period, reference Madsen Pirie's autobiography in which he describes the weekly alignment meetings.
Some of these people / groups also fund / funded UKIP, Reform, Reclaim and Yaxley-Lennon.
These people are from disinterested in the domestic politics of foreign countries.

LGB Alliance also based at 55 Tufton St. Quite a lot of flocking of birds of a feather at that address.

LGB Alliance. Not obsessed obviously.

Tufton Street Klaxon. Time for one of these

eek

Matt Goodwin has sent his latest newsletter out

In it he claims that the next likely shock will be Reform doing well in Wales in 2026 - which I can't really disagree given that it's a cheap protest vote even if Nigel and co aren't organised...

Pulpstar

You need all the results in properly before doing this analysis but right now only 10 states are trending right:

RI 0.49% > 95% in
MD 0.62% 88% in
IL 0.85% 94% in
MS 0.97% 92% in
CA* 1.62% 78% in
TX 1.62% > 95% in
MA 2.16% > 95% in
FL 3.10% > 95% in
NJ 3.78% 88% in
NY 5.04% 94% in

I make the national swing 6.75% so far (Results from Wikipedia). Above are the states exceeding that with votes counted so far.

I think it'll probably change once they're all in.

Utah is the only state that actually swung left according to my numbers anyway.

Sunil_Prasannan

Sandpit said:

Oh, so the most Puerto Rican county in Florida, possibly in the whole USA, flipped for Trump.

https://x.com/dailymail/status/1855639624971915595

But a comedian told a bad joke.

PR also voted for a pro-GOP Governator.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Puerto_Rico_gubernatorial_election

MattW

Archiepiscopal Charitable Betting Post - Offer.

It's that time again.

The next Archbishop of Canterbury not being a woman.

Woman: I donate £150 to a charity of your choice.
Man: You donate £100 to Wheels for Wellbeing.

Caveat: bet cancelled if the makeup of the Crown Nominations Commission is changed, or the Position (ie job role) of ABC changed.

(Bit of Context: 6 out of the 16 Lords Spiritual are now women.)

Any takers?

TimS

Cookie said:

TimS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

Pre-election, I wrote off Reform totally. Even in May, their local election performance was distinctly underwhelming.

But, they had an extremely good election campaign, and finished up with four more MP's than UKIP ever managed. They're tapping into a group of voters that UKIP could not reach, and obviously benefitting from the fact that neither the Conservatives, nor Labour are popular, right now. They seem to be targeting quite successfully in local by-elections.

At this stage, I think we can assume they'll be winning somewhere around 100-200 seats in the county council elections.

I see there is a split emerging in Reform.

Tick has said he doesn’t want the support of the Tommy Robinson mob which has annoyed some.

That's the Tories' best hope: that Reform splits between the ultras and the bloke down the pub tendency, as UKIP did. With a punchy Badenoch at the help they may then get back some of the Boris-Brexiteer right, and they should be happy to keep their distance from the Tommy Robinson faction.

A reform split doesn't really help the Tories because the Tories problem isn't Reform coming ahead of them in individual seats but voters who might otherwise vote Tory voting for a different right wing party*, meaning that they then don't beat Labour or the Lib Dems in individual seats. Having two right wing parties just compounds the problem.

*Note I did not say 'splitting the vote', because I recognise that many or perhaps the majority of Ref voters wouldn't blandly switch to the Tories in the absence of Reform.

My working assumption here is that a split in Reform would not just split the non-Tory right wing vote, but would significantly reduce it in total. A split would drain voters back to the Conservatives.

Spitting the alternatives also reduces the threat of being overtaken as the "main" right wing party, of course.

Dopermean

Theuniondivvie said:

Dopermean said:

On topic:
"Could GOP fund right wing campaigning in the UK?"
This is even more divorced from reality than yesterday's editorial contribution.
Rightwing US donors and other foreign individuals have been funding the 55 Tufton street think-tanks for years, probably decades, and the Tufton street think tanks have been enmeshed in the Conservative party and the rightwing media for a similar period, reference Madsen Pirie's autobiography in which he describes the weekly alignment meetings.
Some of these people / groups also fund / funded UKIP, Reform, Reclaim and Yaxley-Lennon.
These people are from disinterested in the domestic politics of foreign countries.

LGB Alliance also based at 55 Tufton St. Quite a lot of flocking of birds of a feather at that address.

It's owned by a euro-sceptic major conservative donor, so probably cheap rent.

williamglenn

Theuniondivvie said:

The actual Dem campaign as opposed to the version being constructed by all the aftertimers.

The Serfs (youtube.com/theserftimes)
@theserfstv
"If what you want is a centrist campaign that's quiet on trans issues, tough on the border, distances itself from Palestinians, talks a lot about law and order, and reaches out to moderate Republicans, that candidate existed and she just lost"
~John Oliver on dems moving right
1:13 am · 12 Nov 2024

https://x.com/theserfstv/status/1856143282998284697

So we should disregard everything someone says or does before the official election campaign begins?

Harris wasn't "quiet on trans issues". She bragged about changing the policy in California to fund gender reassignment surgery for prisoners and illegal immigrants in detention and previously said that she would use her executive authority as president to do the same for federal prisoners and detainees.

DecrepiterJohnL

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Harris' disastrous efforts to control the border were always going to be an albatross around her neck. So she needed a good economy *feel*, and inflation killed that.

She was always a terrible candidate, as demonstrated in the 2020 primaries.

It was just that when Biden stood aside, that everyone decided she was suddenly the best possible ambassador for the Democratic Party.

Not so much the best possible as the only possible candidate in the time available.

ETA as Pulpstar has already noted.

Theuniondivvie

Taz said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Dopermean said:

On topic:
"Could GOP fund right wing campaigning in the UK?"
This is even more divorced from reality than yesterday's editorial contribution.
Rightwing US donors and other foreign individuals have been funding the 55 Tufton street think-tanks for years, probably decades, and the Tufton street think tanks have been enmeshed in the Conservative party and the rightwing media for a similar period, reference Madsen Pirie's autobiography in which he describes the weekly alignment meetings.
Some of these people / groups also fund / funded UKIP, Reform, Reclaim and Yaxley-Lennon.
These people are from disinterested in the domestic politics of foreign countries.

LGB Alliance also based at 55 Tufton St. Quite a lot of flocking of birds of a feather at that address.

LGB Alliance. Not obsessed obviously.

Tufton Street Klaxon. Time for one of these

You've posted 2 tinfoil hats. Is the other one for you to wear when obsessively replying 'not obsessed' to my posts?

It may have escaped your right of centrist dad awareness but there have been numerous posts this morning about trans being 'the' issue in the Dems' failure, and American money in UK politics. In fact the actual header refers to the latter.

Casino_Royale

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Personally I don’t put pronouns on my emails.

But if people want to, surely free speech should allow them to? It’s making people feel awkward for not that’s the issue I think?

I have absolutely no issue with people choosing to put pronouns on their footers.
However, most HR departments (certainly in the public sector and public sector-adjacent companies) are nowadays quite keen to insist on it.

There's a social pressure to do it as well. If you don't, you stand out and people might think you're a secret bigot.

At my last workplace they were gearing up to make it mandatory as part of the inclusivity drive they started in the summer. They added it to slack and for new employees it was made a mandatory field in the profile on sign up and everyone got email reminders to add them into their HR profiles.

That's awful

No_Offence_Alan

Sean_F said:

Pre-election, I wrote off Reform totally. Even in May, their local election performance was distinctly underwhelming.

But, they had an extremely good election campaign, and finished up with four more MP's than UKIP ever managed. They're tapping into a group of voters that UKIP could not reach, and obviously benefitting from the fact that neither the Conservatives, nor Labour are popular, right now. They seem to be targeting quite successfully in local by-elections.

At this stage, I think we can assume they'll be winning somewhere around 100-200 seats in the county council elections.

They will win/gain about a quarter as many seats as the Lib Dems, but will get 4 times the headlines.

DecrepiterJohnL

eek said:

Barnesian said:

kjh said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Labour has long used American electoral advisors and the Conservatives Australian ones.

The LDs also use the Democrat's software.

Interesting article @Alanbrooke but the big difference is the election spending restrictions (although the Tories did increase the national limits, unreasonably in my opinion). But regardless of the recent increases they are still very low in comparison to the US, particularly at the local level.

As discussed yesterday Reform needs to learn, and more importantly be able to implement (which is a challenge), local campaigning techniques and for this they will need lots of local fit supporters, not lots of money (although a good dollop of that does help).

I think they are learning. Their literature presentation during the GE was good.

They are modelling themselves on the Lib Dems according to Richard Tice.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/20/reform-can-learn-from-lib-dems-on-ground-campaigning-says-richard-tice

That requires people actually going out and knocking on doors - I just don't see it personally...

Question is whether activists knocking on doors matters as much as everyone thought before the Democrats got tonked despite their huge advantage in activists on the ground.

Casino_Royale

Theuniondivvie said:

The actual Dem campaign as opposed to the version being constructed by all the aftertimers.

The Serfs (youtube.com/theserftimes)
@theserfstv
"If what you want is a centrist campaign that's quiet on trans issues, tough on the border, distances itself from Palestinians, talks a lot about law and order, and reaches out to moderate Republicans, that candidate existed and she just lost"
~John Oliver on dems moving right
1:13 am · 12 Nov 2024

https://x.com/theserfstv/status/1856143282998284697

I don't know why people cite John Oliver as somehow a neutral commentator.

It'd be like citing Nish Kumar and the Mash Report here, or The Last Leg.

Casino_Royale

Cookie said:

FPT:

Casino_Royale said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Personally I don’t put pronouns on my emails.

But if people want to, surely free speech should allow them to? It’s making people feel awkward for not that’s the issue I think?

I have absolutely no issue with people choosing to put pronouns on their footers.
However, most HR departments (certainly in the public sector and public sector-adjacent companies) are nowadays quite keen to insist on it.

There's a social pressure to do it as well. If you don't, you stand out and people might think you're a secret bigot.

On social pressure at work: I was taken aback yesterday when a friend at work (public sector / big city) said something which hinted he thought both voting Conservative and voting Brexit was an acceptable position to take.
I do know him quite well.
But absolutely no-one in the public sector admits to either of these. Presumably there are some Tory voters and Leave voters in the public sector, but it's something you keep very quiet.

I don't dare unless I know the person well.

Leon

FPT for @Jonathan and his Japan-visiting friend:

Ise shrine
Kinosaki-onsen
Hida furukawa
Kyotango coast
Osaka - really surprising city but overlooked

Basically just tell him to head away from the Tokyo-Kyoto-Hiroshima trail (tho you must see them). Japan is brilliant everywhere - if you like cultural surprises and great food

Theuniondivvie

Now the poppy strewn Gammon Glasto is over, straight in with the 'we're a Christian country' bollocks. Comes round quicker every year.

https://x.com/lkvntse/status/1856307627334262855

Leon

TimS said:

maxh said:

Thanks @Alanbrooke (for the last one too which I read but didn't have a chance to comment on).

Whilst I think the broad thrust (Republicans and Reform natural allies) is right, I suspect Trump won't be that interested.

Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects

For the sake of my sanity and my kids' education I'd quite like to see the UK and EU banning both TwiX and TikTok.

What hysterical nonsense

Sandpit

This is a weirdly phrased story. What actually happened?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/12/girl-17-killed-by-car-on-m5-getting-out-of-police-vehicle/

rottenborough

Theuniondivvie said:

Now the poppy strewn Gammon Glasto is over, straight in with the 'we're a Christian country' bollocks. Comes round quicker every year.

https://x.com/lkvntse/status/1856307627334262855

Anyone raging about this being a christian country on Twix should be made to declare all their recent church attendances.

dixiedean

Something we'll never find out about from the masters of that, the PRC.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/12/china-car-driven-into-sports-centre-state-media

eek

Sandpit said:

This is a weirdly phrased story. What actually happened?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/12/girl-17-killed-by-car-on-m5-getting-out-of-police-vehicle/

I'm guessing the girl managed to open up the door and rolled / jumped out into the next lane only to be hit by a vehicle.

As you say it's a very weird story and somthing definitely went wrong...

MattW

Sandpit said:

This is a weirdly phrased story. What actually happened?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/12/girl-17-killed-by-car-on-m5-getting-out-of-police-vehicle/

There's a bit more in the Guardian:
On Tuesday, the IOPC revealed the 17-year-old girl was being transported to custody in a police vehicle and left the vehicle shortly before the collision.

An IOPC spokesperson said: “We have started an investigation into the circumstances surrounding the death of a 17-year-old girl who was struck by a vehicle on the M5 near Taunton last night.

“We were advised by Avon and Somerset police that the girl was being transported to custody in a police vehicle and had got out of the vehicle shortly before the collision.

“We sent our investigators to the police post incident procedure to begin gathering evidence. Our sympathies are with the girl’s loved ones and everyone affected by her death.”

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/nov/12/girl-17-died-hit-by-car-m5-fled-police-vehicle

It sounds like unusual circs such as arrested and being put in the police vehicle for detention, or drug or drink tested, or detained to see if she had a license to drive on the motorway, then jumped out and ran away onto the motorway. Questions will be partly perhaps around how police lost control of their suspect. AIUI police car doors would have child locks enabled, so I don't see quite how an escape whilst moving could be done easily.

Also: https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/m5-traffic-updates-teenage-girl-9706344

It's a wait and see what the investigation says.

JosiasJessop

maxh said:

Thanks @Alanbrooke (for the last one too which I read but didn't have a chance to comment on).

Whilst I think the broad thrust (Republicans and Reform natural allies) is right, I suspect Trump won't be that interested.

Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects

"Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects"

Hey, I've been saying that for more than a year. I haven't heard many good arguments to the contrary.

Pulpstar

MattW said:

Sandpit said:

This is a weirdly phrased story. What actually happened?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/11/12/girl-17-killed-by-car-on-m5-getting-out-of-police-vehicle/

There's a bit more in the Guardian:
On Tuesday, the IOPC revealed the 17-year-old girl was being transported to custody in a police vehicle and left the vehicle shortly before the collision.

An IOPC spokesperson said: “We have started an investigation into the circumstances surrounding the death of a 17-year-old girl who was struck by a vehicle on the M5 near Taunton last night.

“We were advised by Avon and Somerset police that the girl was being transported to custody in a police vehicle and had got out of the vehicle shortly before the collision.

“We sent our investigators to the police post incident procedure to begin gathering evidence. Our sympathies are with the girl’s loved ones and everyone affected by her death.”

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/nov/12/girl-17-died-hit-by-car-m5-fled-police-vehicle

It sounds like unusual circs such as arrested and being put in the police vehicle for detention, or drug or drink tested, or detained to see if she had a license to drive on the motorway, then jumped out and ran away onto the motorway. Questions will be partly perhaps around how police lost control of their suspect.

Also: https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/somerset-news/m5-traffic-updates-teenage-girl-9706344

It's a wait and see what the investigation says.

When I got clocked for speeding the police car I got into the back of "Do you know how fast you were going ?" reasonably sure it was childlocked.

kenObi

Cookie said:

FPT:

Casino_Royale said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Personally I don’t put pronouns on my emails.

But if people want to, surely free speech should allow them to? It’s making people feel awkward for not that’s the issue I think?

I have absolutely no issue with people choosing to put pronouns on their footers.
However, most HR departments (certainly in the public sector and public sector-adjacent companies) are nowadays quite keen to insist on it.

There's a social pressure to do it as well. If you don't, you stand out and people might think you're a secret bigot.

On social pressure at work: I was taken aback yesterday when a friend at work (public sector / big city) said something which hinted he thought both voting Conservative and voting Brexit was an acceptable position to take.
I do know him quite well.
But absolutely no-one in the public sector admits to either of these. Presumably there are some Tory voters and Leave voters in the public sector, but it's something you keep very quiet.

File under utter nonsense.

Alongside BBC news being "full of communists" like Laura Kuenssberg & Fiona Bruce.

williamglenn

JosiasJessop said:

maxh said:

Thanks @Alanbrooke (for the last one too which I read but didn't have a chance to comment on).

Whilst I think the broad thrust (Republicans and Reform natural allies) is right, I suspect Trump won't be that interested.

Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects

"Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects"

Hey, I've been saying that for more than a year. I haven't heard many good arguments to the contrary.

The threat to democracy being that people might vote for policies and people you disapprove of?

Jonathan

Leon said:

FPT for @Jonathan and his Japan-visiting friend:

Ise shrine
Kinosaki-onsen
Hida furukawa
Kyotango coast
Osaka - really surprising city but overlooked

Basically just tell him to head away from the Tokyo-Kyoto-Hiroshima trail (tho you must see them). Japan is brilliant everywhere - if you like cultural surprises and great food

Thanks @Leon , much appreciated.

Malmesbury

rottenborough said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Now the poppy strewn Gammon Glasto is over, straight in with the 'we're a Christian country' bollocks. Comes round quicker every year.

https://x.com/lkvntse/status/1856307627334262855

Anyone raging about this being a christian country on Twix should be made to declare all their recent church attendances.

In addition, the buzz kill tears who do the whole “mustn’t do Christmasy things, because it might upset people” should be made to do an inclusion course.

Because they are hating on an illegal immigrant.

viewcode

Dopermean said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Dopermean said:

On topic:
"Could GOP fund right wing campaigning in the UK?"
This is even more divorced from reality than yesterday's editorial contribution.
Rightwing US donors and other foreign individuals have been funding the 55 Tufton street think-tanks for years, probably decades, and the Tufton street think tanks have been enmeshed in the Conservative party and the rightwing media for a similar period, reference Madsen Pirie's autobiography in which he describes the weekly alignment meetings.
Some of these people / groups also fund / funded UKIP, Reform, Reclaim and Yaxley-Lennon.
These people are from disinterested in the domestic politics of foreign countries.

LGB Alliance also based at 55 Tufton St. Quite a lot of flocking of birds of a feather at that address.

It's owned by a euro-sceptic major conservative donor, so probably cheap rent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/55_Tufton_Street

bondegezou

MAGA took over the GOP, the GOP having evolved effective campaigning structures over decades. I think it will be harder for anyone, be they internal or external, to build up that structure and experience within Reform UK de novo.

And while the likes of Donald Trump and Charlie Kirk do attract some people in the UK, including on PB as we see, I think there is still a big gap between the Overton windows of the two countries. The UK isn’t going to dump the NHS and legal abortion in favour of gun rights and Christian nationalism soon.

I suspect that if you did polling for “Do you support policy X”, you’d get more support than if you ask “Do you support policy X that President Trump supports in the US.”

TimS

Leon said:

TimS said:

maxh said:

Thanks @Alanbrooke (for the last one too which I read but didn't have a chance to comment on).

Whilst I think the broad thrust (Republicans and Reform natural allies) is right, I suspect Trump won't be that interested.

Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects

For the sake of my sanity and my kids' education I'd quite like to see the UK and EU banning both TwiX and TikTok.

What hysterical nonsense

You don't have 2 zoned-out youngsters goggling at endless self-playing videos for hours on end. It's like a form of electronic barbiturate.

bondegezou

Sean_F said:

Pre-election, I wrote off Reform totally. Even in May, their local election performance was distinctly underwhelming.

But, they had an extremely good election campaign, and finished up with four more MP's than UKIP ever managed. They're tapping into a group of voters that UKIP could not reach, and obviously benefitting from the fact that neither the Conservatives, nor Labour are popular, right now. They seem to be targeting quite successfully in local by-elections.

At this stage, I think we can assume they'll be winning somewhere around 100-200 seats in the county council elections.

I’d view that as a hypothesis more than an assumption.

So, are the any betting markets on something like this?

TheScreamingEagles

I predict that Sue Gray will eventually return in an even more powerful role as Sue White.

Keir Starmer is planning to withdraw the offer to his former chief of staff Sue Gray of the post of nations and regions envoy amid concerns over what exactly the role would entail, the Guardian understands.

Sources said Gray, who is on a “short break” between roles after standing down almost six weeks ago, has been warned that the prime minister is likely to rescind the job offer before she has even taken it up.

Downing Street insiders are also believed to be concerned about the media attention that would follow Gray, which could make it more difficult for her to carry out the role effectively behind the scenes.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/nov/12/keir-starmer-poised-to-withdraw-sue-gray-job-offer

GIN1138

SKS is in Azerbaijan committing to reducing UK emissions 81% in 11 years?

This is why I always worry when Prime Ministers start travelling to conferences and summits as it will usually end up costing tax payers and consumers a lot extra money down the line... 😂

Sunil_Prasannan

TimS said:

Leon said:

TimS said:

maxh said:

Thanks @Alanbrooke (for the last one too which I read but didn't have a chance to comment on).

Whilst I think the broad thrust (Republicans and Reform natural allies) is right, I suspect Trump won't be that interested.

Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects

For the sake of my sanity and my kids' education I'd quite like to see the UK and EU banning both TwiX and TikTok.

What hysterical nonsense

You don't have 2 zoned-out youngsters goggling at endless self-playing videos for hours on end. It's like a form of electronic barbiturate.

I blame the parents! #justkiddin'

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

I predict that Sue Gray will eventually return in an even more powerful role as Sue White.

Keir Starmer is planning to withdraw the offer to his former chief of staff Sue Gray of the post of nations and regions envoy amid concerns over what exactly the role would entail, the Guardian understands.

Sources said Gray, who is on a “short break” between roles after standing down almost six weeks ago, has been warned that the prime minister is likely to rescind the job offer before she has even taken it up.

Downing Street insiders are also believed to be concerned about the media attention that would follow Gray, which could make it more difficult for her to carry out the role effectively behind the scenes.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/nov/12/keir-starmer-poised-to-withdraw-sue-gray-job-offer

SKY reporting she's turned the role down...

Suspect she'll have a "tell-all" book out within a couple of years

JosiasJessop

williamglenn said:

JosiasJessop said:

maxh said:

Thanks @Alanbrooke (for the last one too which I read but didn't have a chance to comment on).

Whilst I think the broad thrust (Republicans and Reform natural allies) is right, I suspect Trump won't be that interested.

Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects

"Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects"

Hey, I've been saying that for more than a year. I haven't heard many good arguments to the contrary.

The threat to democracy being that people might vote for policies and people you disapprove of?

No. Far from. If you note, I haven't commented saying that the American public got it wrong, or Trump cheated, or anything like that. I think the world's a more dangerous place,

The threat to democracy is multifold: one is that Musk is trying to control the narrative in a much more powerful way than classic media has been able for decades. He claims to be in favour of free speech; what he is really interested in is propagating his views to the masses.

Another is the way he was insinuating that the election was being fixed before the vote. As in January 6th, he and the MAGA greats are only interested in democracy if they are the winners. In that, they are very much like Putin.

Another is the way he highlights conspiracy theories that further his agenda; see the conversation this morning. Though I daresay you approve of that.

There are more, but I've stuff to do.

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

I predict that Sue Gray will eventually return in an even more powerful role as Sue White.

Keir Starmer is planning to withdraw the offer to his former chief of staff Sue Gray of the post of nations and regions envoy amid concerns over what exactly the role would entail, the Guardian understands.

Sources said Gray, who is on a “short break” between roles after standing down almost six weeks ago, has been warned that the prime minister is likely to rescind the job offer before she has even taken it up.

Downing Street insiders are also believed to be concerned about the media attention that would follow Gray, which could make it more difficult for her to carry out the role effectively behind the scenes.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/nov/12/keir-starmer-poised-to-withdraw-sue-gray-job-offer

Tr: even the people who made up this ridiculous load of crap couldn't work out what it would entail.

Wish I could get a 'short break' of six weeks.

bondegezou

williamglenn said:

JosiasJessop said:

maxh said:

Thanks @Alanbrooke (for the last one too which I read but didn't have a chance to comment on).

Whilst I think the broad thrust (Republicans and Reform natural allies) is right, I suspect Trump won't be that interested.

Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects

"Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects"

Hey, I've been saying that for more than a year. I haven't heard many good arguments to the contrary.

The threat to democracy being that people might vote for policies and people you disapprove of?

The other day, you were questioning whether universal suffrage was even a good thing.

bondegezou

JosiasJessop said:

williamglenn said:

JosiasJessop said:

maxh said:

Thanks @Alanbrooke (for the last one too which I read but didn't have a chance to comment on).

Whilst I think the broad thrust (Republicans and Reform natural allies) is right, I suspect Trump won't be that interested.

Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects

"Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects"

Hey, I've been saying that for more than a year. I haven't heard many good arguments to the contrary.

The threat to democracy being that people might vote for policies and people you disapprove of?

No. Far from. If you note, I haven't commented saying that the American public got it wrong, or Trump cheated, or anything like that. I think the world's a more dangerous place,

The threat to democracy is multifold: one is that Musk is trying to control the narrative in a much more powerful way than classic media has been able for decades. He claims to be in favour of free speech; what he is really interested in is propagating his views to the masses.

Another is the way he was insinuating that the election was being fixed before the vote. As in January 6th, he and the MAGA greats are only interested in democracy if they are the winners. In that, they are very much like Putin.

Another is the way he highlights conspiracy theories that further his agenda; see the conversation this morning. Though I daresay you approve of that.

There are more, but I've stuff to do.

I think most people 6 months ago would have agreed that a government minister also owning a major social media company is an obvious conflict of interest that shouldn’t be allowed. And yet here we are now.

BatteryCorrectHorse

On poppies, I was forced to wear one at school which I never felt right about. And people that opposed it were made to feel like they were disrespecting others.

I still feel a bit like that today at times. If people want to wear a poppy that’s up to them but people should not feel bad if they don’t.

On the trans stuff, I found little to disagree with about what was posted.

But I did have one question, if gender is not a helpful thing, when people think they are something else, what do we say they have? Are you saying we should invent a new description for this process?

I do think there are only two sexes. But genders is still something I am not sure about.

There are those who will say “actually she’s a man” and call them a man instead of a woman. To he honest they are sexually a man but I think getting what they want to be called on purpose is just rude. But equally people getting offended often on behalf of others for getting pronouns wrong are equally a problem.

I wonder if for services and so on, it would be best to have a trans category, is there any thought on this?

Pulpstar

Apparently the Harris campaign paid various celebrities for their endorsements lol. Is that usual ?
I mean I know celebs endorse various people but normally it's for free because they believe in that side of the argument (Pretty sure the Democrats have never paid Springsteen for instance and he always endorses them) - just wild that campaign funds were spent on endorsements - $10M for Beyonce apparently !

eristdoof

Casino_Royale said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Personally I don’t put pronouns on my emails.

But if people want to, surely free speech should allow them to? It’s making people feel awkward for not that’s the issue I think?

I have absolutely no issue with people choosing to put pronouns on their footers.
However, most HR departments (certainly in the public sector and public sector-adjacent companies) are nowadays quite keen to insist on it.

There's a social pressure to do it as well. If you don't, you stand out and people might think you're a secret bigot.

If someone uses she/it/they to me in an email, I won't be offended. I hope that others won't be offended, if I happen to adress them using the wrong pronoun.

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I predict that Sue Gray will eventually return in an even more powerful role as Sue White.

Keir Starmer is planning to withdraw the offer to his former chief of staff Sue Gray of the post of nations and regions envoy amid concerns over what exactly the role would entail, the Guardian understands.

Sources said Gray, who is on a “short break” between roles after standing down almost six weeks ago, has been warned that the prime minister is likely to rescind the job offer before she has even taken it up.

Downing Street insiders are also believed to be concerned about the media attention that would follow Gray, which could make it more difficult for her to carry out the role effectively behind the scenes.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/nov/12/keir-starmer-poised-to-withdraw-sue-gray-job-offer

Tr: even the people who made up this ridiculous load of crap couldn't work out what it would entail.

Wish I could get a 'short break' of six weeks.

Now that the dragon of Scottish nationalism has been killed stone dead by Starmer it was always a non job.

viewcode

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I predict that Sue Gray will eventually return in an even more powerful role as Sue White.

Keir Starmer is planning to withdraw the offer to his former chief of staff Sue Gray of the post of nations and regions envoy amid concerns over what exactly the role would entail, the Guardian understands.

Sources said Gray, who is on a “short break” between roles after standing down almost six weeks ago, has been warned that the prime minister is likely to rescind the job offer before she has even taken it up.

Downing Street insiders are also believed to be concerned about the media attention that would follow Gray, which could make it more difficult for her to carry out the role effectively behind the scenes.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/nov/12/keir-starmer-poised-to-withdraw-sue-gray-job-offer

Tr: even the people who made up this ridiculous load of crap couldn't work out what it would entail.

Wish I could get a 'short break' of six weeks.

It's a bit of a pity. I can see the role of "hand of the king" making sense, especially in the context of a multiply-devolved state. She could have a little pin.

Driver

.

JosiasJessop said:

williamglenn said:

JosiasJessop said:

maxh said:

Thanks @Alanbrooke (for the last one too which I read but didn't have a chance to comment on).

Whilst I think the broad thrust (Republicans and Reform natural allies) is right, I suspect Trump won't be that interested.

Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects

"Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects"

Hey, I've been saying that for more than a year. I haven't heard many good arguments to the contrary.

The threat to democracy being that people might vote for policies and people you disapprove of?

No. Far from. If you note, I haven't commented saying that the American public got it wrong, or Trump cheated, or anything like that. I think the world's a more dangerous place,

The threat to democracy is multifold: one is that Musk is trying to control the narrative in a much more powerful way than classic media has been able for decades. He claims to be in favour of free speech; what he is really interested in is propagating his views to the masses.

Another is the way he was insinuating that the election was being fixed before the vote. As in January 6th, he and the MAGA greats are only interested in democracy if they are the winners. In that, they are very much like Putin.

Another is the way he highlights conspiracy theories that further his agenda; see the conversation this morning. Though I daresay you approve of that.

There are more, but I've stuff to do.

X simply isn't that powerful. I still believe the most powerful single medium in the country is the BBC News app push notification

Malmesbury

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I predict that Sue Gray will eventually return in an even more powerful role as Sue White.

Keir Starmer is planning to withdraw the offer to his former chief of staff Sue Gray of the post of nations and regions envoy amid concerns over what exactly the role would entail, the Guardian understands.

Sources said Gray, who is on a “short break” between roles after standing down almost six weeks ago, has been warned that the prime minister is likely to rescind the job offer before she has even taken it up.

Downing Street insiders are also believed to be concerned about the media attention that would follow Gray, which could make it more difficult for her to carry out the role effectively behind the scenes.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/nov/12/keir-starmer-poised-to-withdraw-sue-gray-job-offer

Tr: even the people who made up this ridiculous load of crap couldn't work out what it would entail.

Wish I could get a 'short break' of six weeks.

She can’t go back to work in No. 10

Because large chunks of the Civil Service won’t work with her.

Malmesbury

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I predict that Sue Gray will eventually return in an even more powerful role as Sue White.

Keir Starmer is planning to withdraw the offer to his former chief of staff Sue Gray of the post of nations and regions envoy amid concerns over what exactly the role would entail, the Guardian understands.

Sources said Gray, who is on a “short break” between roles after standing down almost six weeks ago, has been warned that the prime minister is likely to rescind the job offer before she has even taken it up.

Downing Street insiders are also believed to be concerned about the media attention that would follow Gray, which could make it more difficult for her to carry out the role effectively behind the scenes.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/nov/12/keir-starmer-poised-to-withdraw-sue-gray-job-offer

Tr: even the people who made up this ridiculous load of crap couldn't work out what it would entail.

Wish I could get a 'short break' of six weeks.

Now that the dragon of Scottish nationalism has been killed stone dead by Starmer it was always a non job.

“Go out and govern New South Wales!”

bondegezou

Pulpstar said:

Apparently the Harris campaign paid various celebrities for their endorsements lol. Is that usual ?
I mean I know celebs endorse various people but normally it's for free because they believe in that side of the argument (Pretty sure the Democrats have never paid Springsteen for instance and he always endorses them) - just wild that campaign funds were spent on endorsements - $10M for Beyonce apparently !

This has been claimed, but denied: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/oprah-winfrey-kamala-harris-paid-million-b2645382.html I don’t see any actual evidence. You may have noticed that a lot of election news from the US isn’t very reliable.

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I predict that Sue Gray will eventually return in an even more powerful role as Sue White.

Keir Starmer is planning to withdraw the offer to his former chief of staff Sue Gray of the post of nations and regions envoy amid concerns over what exactly the role would entail, the Guardian understands.

Sources said Gray, who is on a “short break” between roles after standing down almost six weeks ago, has been warned that the prime minister is likely to rescind the job offer before she has even taken it up.

Downing Street insiders are also believed to be concerned about the media attention that would follow Gray, which could make it more difficult for her to carry out the role effectively behind the scenes.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/nov/12/keir-starmer-poised-to-withdraw-sue-gray-job-offer

Tr: even the people who made up this ridiculous load of crap couldn't work out what it would entail.

Wish I could get a 'short break' of six weeks.

Now that the dragon of Scottish nationalism has been killed stone dead by Starmer it was always a non job.

Polling still to catch up with this stunning revelation obviously.

BatteryCorrectHorse

eristdoof said:

Casino_Royale said:

Cookie said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

Personally I don’t put pronouns on my emails.

But if people want to, surely free speech should allow them to? It’s making people feel awkward for not that’s the issue I think?

I have absolutely no issue with people choosing to put pronouns on their footers.
However, most HR departments (certainly in the public sector and public sector-adjacent companies) are nowadays quite keen to insist on it.

There's a social pressure to do it as well. If you don't, you stand out and people might think you're a secret bigot.

If someone uses she/it/they to me in an email, I won't be offended. I hope that others won't be offended, if I happen to adress them using the wrong pronoun.

I wouldn’t be and to be honest I have not met any trans people who actually are. They just hope you’ll get it right if they correct you but I feel that no different to getting somebody’s name wrong.

I do think people should not be forced to put pronouns on emails and in my organisation as a young start up people do what they want. I think that is up to them.

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I predict that Sue Gray will eventually return in an even more powerful role as Sue White.

Keir Starmer is planning to withdraw the offer to his former chief of staff Sue Gray of the post of nations and regions envoy amid concerns over what exactly the role would entail, the Guardian understands.

Sources said Gray, who is on a “short break” between roles after standing down almost six weeks ago, has been warned that the prime minister is likely to rescind the job offer before she has even taken it up.

Downing Street insiders are also believed to be concerned about the media attention that would follow Gray, which could make it more difficult for her to carry out the role effectively behind the scenes.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/nov/12/keir-starmer-poised-to-withdraw-sue-gray-job-offer

Tr: even the people who made up this ridiculous load of crap couldn't work out what it would entail.

Wish I could get a 'short break' of six weeks.

Now that the dragon of Scottish nationalism has been killed stone dead by Starmer it was always a non job.

Polling still to catch up with this stunning revelation obviously.

Polls, schmolls.

SNP down to 9 MPs.

eristdoof

TimS said:

Leon said:

TimS said:

maxh said:

Thanks @Alanbrooke (for the last one too which I read but didn't have a chance to comment on).

Whilst I think the broad thrust (Republicans and Reform natural allies) is right, I suspect Trump won't be that interested.

Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects

For the sake of my sanity and my kids' education I'd quite like to see the UK and EU banning both TwiX and TikTok.

What hysterical nonsense

You don't have 2 zoned-out youngsters goggling at endless self-playing videos for hours on end. It's like a form of electronic barbiturate.

After "Religion is the opiate of the masses" and "Television is the opiate of the masses" we now have "X is the opiate of the masses".

JosiasJessop

Driver said:

.

JosiasJessop said:

williamglenn said:

JosiasJessop said:

maxh said:

Thanks @Alanbrooke (for the last one too which I read but didn't have a chance to comment on).

Whilst I think the broad thrust (Republicans and Reform natural allies) is right, I suspect Trump won't be that interested.

Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects

"Musk, perhaps. I think it's fair to say Twitter/X now sits alongside Putin as a threat to democracy worldwide and I'm sure the UK won't escape it's effects"

Hey, I've been saying that for more than a year. I haven't heard many good arguments to the contrary.

The threat to democracy being that people might vote for policies and people you disapprove of?

No. Far from. If you note, I haven't commented saying that the American public got it wrong, or Trump cheated, or anything like that. I think the world's a more dangerous place,

The threat to democracy is multifold: one is that Musk is trying to control the narrative in a much more powerful way than classic media has been able for decades. He claims to be in favour of free speech; what he is really interested in is propagating his views to the masses.

Another is the way he was insinuating that the election was being fixed before the vote. As in January 6th, he and the MAGA greats are only interested in democracy if they are the winners. In that, they are very much like Putin.

Another is the way he highlights conspiracy theories that further his agenda; see the conversation this morning. Though I daresay you approve of that.

There are more, but I've stuff to do.

X simply isn't that powerful. I still believe the most powerful single medium in the country is the BBC News app push notification

In this country? Perhaps - though I'd like to see data behind that assertion.

In the US? I think you're wrong: and it's got the addition of Musk's legion of weirdo fans, who will excuse him everything and amplify his every thought everywhere without criticism.