Arizona latest is Trump has pulled further ahead, whilst Lake has drawn closer to becoming a Senator.
Senator Kari Lake. We’ll hear the orgasmic scream all the way from Korea to the UK.
Why is it taking so long and will it declare before Trump becomes President in January
Let’s not trigger Viewcode....
I was born triggered. Imagine a gently vibrating jello mould going "wobble, wobble, fckng Arizona" and you get the image. However I did pop into town today and picked up my Oct/Nov winnings from one bookmakers, which was nice. I love the smell of fifties generated by honest gambling, and it really does take the edge off.
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
FWIW - high profile, on twitter, Harris activist - Victor Shi - has really been bigging Newsom the last couple of days.
Good grief Newsom would be an absolute gift to the GOP. And sorry to say the crowd pushing Buttigieg are delusional, do they really think the USA is ready for a gay President . In an ideal world it wouldn’t be an issue but it is .
Isn’t the main takeaway from this election, if Trump continues to screw up US economy, inflation and mortgages, even Newsom could win next one?
Huge tax cut for rich, deport workers, tariff wars, and seizing control of setting interest rates at his desk in the WH. It won’t just be Arizona who’ll struggle to count the number of market corrections.
Malmesbury said: "It's an American thing to use ex-politicians and chums of the President as Ambassadors."
True, and to award big donors. Can't remember her name, but a generous Democrat was made ambassador to Luxembourg. (Obama administration?) She proceeded to drive the staff nuts, and finally had to be recalled.
(Could that help explain why wealthy Luxembourg is so chintzy in its support for NATO? Probably not, but I do think the current ambassador should make some efforts along those lines.)
Usually, the most important jobs go to pros, either in the state Department, or in politics. Some of the latter have been pretty good, for example, Benjamin Franklin.
Arizona latest is Trump has pulled further ahead, whilst Lake has drawn closer to becoming a Senator.
Senator Kari Lake. We’ll hear the orgasmic scream all the way from Korea to the UK.
Why is it taking so long and will it declare before Trump becomes President in January
Let’s not trigger Viewcode....
I was born triggered. Imagine a gently vibrating jello mould going "wobble, wobble, fckng Arizona" and you get the image. However I did pop into town today and picked up my Oct/Nov winnings from one bookmakers, which was nice. I love the smell of fifties generated by honest gambling, and it really does take the edge off.
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Suspect Clarkson's got too many skeletons in the closet and given his recent heart scare, who knows if he'll even be alive in 2029...
Let’s dispense with the nonsense about the supposed unseemliness of political appointees to Washington.
Now is not the time for niceties.
The UK needs someone who can fawn and cajole, but has a clear-eyed view of British interests and will stand up to Trump when necessary. Trump respects people who show some backbone.
Mandelson seems ideal. Farage is simply absurd, in no way can he represent the interests of HMG.
As for the “choice” between the U.S. and Europe, it is strongly in Britain’s economic interests to secure access to the single market in a bespoke arrangement a la Suisse.
It is also in Britain’s interests to avoid a 10% tariff on the export of goods to the U.S.
A UK-USA trade deal itself is of dubious merit, given that want the U.S. wants (access to the NHS, market access for its agricultural products) are really things the UK doesn’t want.
Malmesbury said: "It's an American thing to use ex-politicians and chums of the President as Ambassadors."
True, and to award big donors. Can't remember her name, but a generous Democrat was made ambassador to Luxembourg. (Obama administration?) She proceeded to drive the staff nuts, and finally had to be recalled.
(Could that help explain why wealthy Luxembourg is so chintzy in its support for NATO? Probably not, but I do think the current ambassador should make some efforts along those lines.)
Usually, the most important jobs go to pros, either in the state Department, or in politics. Some of the latter have been pretty good, for example, Benjamin Franklin.
Thank goodness at a moment of great instability and concern about our relationship with our closest geopolitical partner we have an Ambassador in Washington who has worked really hard to build relationships with the President elect's team, gets on really well with them and is happy to stay on. The Prime minster would have to be a complete moron to want to replace her with someone else.
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Arizona latest is Trump has pulled further ahead, whilst Lake has drawn closer to becoming a Senator.
Senator Kari Lake. We’ll hear the orgasmic scream all the way from Korea to the UK.
Why is it taking so long and will it declare before Trump becomes President in January
Let’s not trigger Viewcode....
I was born triggered. Imagine a gently vibrating jello mould going "wobble, wobble, fckng Arizona" and you get the image. However I did pop into town today and picked up my Oct/Nov winnings from one bookmakers, which was nice. I love the smell of fifties generated by honest gambling, and it really does take the edge off.
What are the issues around several European countries making decisions in parallel and moving to implement.
Obviously Putin's patsies in the new USA Government will start mouthing threats and throwing tantrums.
But if they want to isolate themselves from Europe 1920s (I think) style, then the corollary is that expect European countries to start taking decisions for themselves.
So let's do it.
If only it was that simple
If we are to have a USA withdrawing from the wider world, as seems fairly clear, then relationships will adjust, and need to adjust. And as always we start from here.
Why is such a measure not possible?
It is just wishful thinking and the EU itself is bitterly divided with some openly supporters of Putin
Trump has just made everything unpredictable with no easy solutions
I note the Mirror is reporting that Trump would block Mandelson's appointment
Allegedly because Lord Mandelbrot's of his association with the EU.
So that's presumably Cathy Ashton done as well, since she was the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy for five years. Has anyone told hin?
Why is Trump so scared of the EU, and why does he think it's any of his business whom we make our Ambassador?
He really is a frightened little mouse, isn't he?
Nigel must be feeding him this stuff. I can't see Trump giving a God damn shit about the EU otherwise.
Musk hates the EU because it interferes in his business interests. Secondly Trump cannot block the appointment of an ambassador. He can refuse to talk to him but that's it. And nothing to stop Mandelson building contacts in Washington more broadly. Perhaps he is just testing Starmer to see if he is weak. More likely it's part of Trump's plan to separate us from the EU by exempting us from tariffs. The question there is why is Trump so keen to cut us off from the EU, or stop us entering the EU orbit?
Again it's him again aligning with Russian foreign policy.
Actually, any state can refuse an Ambassador from another state . It is nearly never done - the protocol is that the name of the Ambassador to be is suggested in back channel discussions, everyone agrees first, then the formal request goes through.
I don't actually think Mandelson would be a good choice anyway. He's a former senior politician himself, has a big ego and is used to being a player on the pitch not acting as a servant. Aren't Ambassadors generally best being low key figures?
The thing I find strange about the story, is that the UK ambassador to the US has always been a professional diplomat, as far as I am aware.
It's an American thing to use ex-politicians and chums of the President as Ambassadors.
Agree it is unseemly. Though there is precedent with it being offered. I think Thatcher offered Heath the American ambassadorship to get him out of the Commons. Obviously the sour old tosspot refused.
Politically for Starmer, sending Farage would be a masterstroke. Appeal to Trump, giving him his buddy, remove Farage from the board politically, leave Reform without their charismatic leader, potentially (though I doubt it would go back to Labour - perhaps a local independent?) deprive Refuk of a seat. So much of an open goal that Starmer will clearly flunk it, if indeed it's still on offer.
You think a Labour PM would want Farage as his primary intermediary with an American administration?
The WaPo explains why California is still counting votes: "The most populous state in the union has one of the longest vote-counting processes. That’s partly because California has so many ballots to count and partly because the state makes it easy for its citizens to vote, which means election officials have to work harder to certify that ballots are valid.
The result is — it may take a while for results. As of midday Saturday, 10 House races in California had yet to be called, with control of the House on the line. Also uncalled were a few closely fought ballot initiatives, including one that would gradually raise the minimum wage to $18 per hour." source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/11/09/california-vote-count/
Those who complain about "vote suppression" should be pleased by these voting laws.
(For the record: I think there is some truth in Republican claims that Democrats commit vote fraud -- and some truth in Democratic claims that Republicans suppress votes. But far less than partisans on either side often say.)
The WaPo explains why California is still counting votes: "The most populous state in the union has one of the longest vote-counting processes. That’s partly because California has so many ballots to count and partly because the state makes it easy for its citizens to vote, which means election officials have to work harder to certify that ballots are valid.
The result is — it may take a while for results. As of midday Saturday, 10 House races in California had yet to be called, with control of the House on the line. Also uncalled were a few closely fought ballot initiatives, including one that would gradually raise the minimum wage to $18 per hour." source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/11/09/california-vote-count/
Those who complain about "vote suppression" should be pleased by these voting laws.
(For the record: I think there is some truth in Republican claims that Democrats commit vote fraud -- and some truth in Democratic claims that Republicans suppress votes. But far less than partisans on either side often say.)
Laugh at cricket all you want but at least it's over in five days.
I am feeling a little bit more hopeful about my bet for AZSenate. Lake is pulling it back but at 83.7% counted and a gap of around 34,325 she *may* not be closing the gap fast enough. Will know more tomorrow and until then this is just a guess
For those who still think I’m totally wrong what I argued earlier, and rubbish at economics, tonight’s Sunday Times is for you. And it’s all so simple and Black and White.
I still know we don’t have to swallow such games and large figures bounded around as fact. Lady Thatcher taught me that by her bravest actions.
As I pointed out, when Lady Thatcher Windfall Taxed Banks and Oil Industry in the 80’s, the Times and other papers no doubt printed the taxed industries view “Maggie’s Tax Plans will be Ruinous for us, Industry Investment and our Customers.” But her Treasury had crunched the numbers for her, so she faced it down, and a Legend for Strong Government was born.
And how exactly did Lady Thatcher know she was right? By understanding Capitalism and Entrepreneurship.
It’s never black and white every tax rise on business is passed on to customers, will cost jobs and restrict investment, just as it isn’t black and white every tax cut on business is passed on to customers. Governments cut tax on business to encourage start ups, investment and economic growth. But Governments don’t do these things themselves, they pass the decision what to do with the credit change, on.
Government can’t force businesses to charge customers less, as letters and lobbying from Sunak and Hunt were telling them too.
Businesses that had plans to expand in the next year, will still have that desire and plan, as far as they can still manage to absorb and progress, the will to do so is there. Whilst those who got Bank of England and Sunak’s government so upset, by fleecing customers during cost of living crisis in order to boost profits, why are you on their side right now?
I am feeling a little bit more hopeful about my bet for AZSenate. Lake is pulling it back but at 83.7% counted and a gap of around 34,325 she *may* not be closing the gap fast enough. Will know more tomorrow and until then this is just a guess
For those who still think I’m totally wrong what I argued earlier, and rubbish at economics, tonight’s Sunday Times is for you. And it’s all so simple and Black and White.
I still know we don’t have to swallow such games and large figures bounded around as fact. Lady Thatcher taught me that by her bravest actions.
As I pointed out, when Lady Thatcher Windfall Taxed Banks and Oil Industry in the 80’s, the Times and other papers no doubt printed the taxed industries view “Maggie’s Tax Plans will be Ruinous for us, Industry Investment and our Customers.” But her Treasury had crunched the numbers for her, so she faced it down, and a Legend for Strong Government was born.
And how exactly did Lady Thatcher know she was right? By understanding Capitalism and Entrepreneurship.
It’s never black and white every tax rise on business is passed on to customers, will cost jobs and restrict investment, just as it isn’t black and white every tax cut on business is passed on to customers. Governments cut tax on business to encourage start ups, investment and economic growth. But Governments don’t do these things themselves, they pass the decision what to do with the credit change, on.
Government can’t force businesses to charge customers less, as letters and lobbying from Sunak and Hunt were telling them too.
Businesses that had plans to expand in the next year, will still have that desire and plan, as far as they can still manage to absorb and progress, the will to do so is there. Whilst those who got Bank of England and Sunak’s government so upset, by fleecing customers during cost of living crisis in order to boost profits, why are you on their side right now?
You think Tesco's weren't already wringing evey last penny out of customers, employees and suppliers?
I am feeling a little bit more hopeful about my bet for AZSenate. Lake is pulling it back but at 83.7% counted and a gap of around 34,325 she *may* not be closing the gap fast enough. Will know more tomorrow and until then this is just a guess
It'll be amazing if she pulls it off.
Bitter experience has taught me that it's best not to write off an American politician until they are dead, and possibly not even then.
I am feeling a little bit more hopeful about my bet for AZSenate. Lake is pulling it back but at 83.7% counted and a gap of around 34,325 she *may* not be closing the gap fast enough. Will know more tomorrow and until then this is just a guess
Now 84 percent of votes have been counted.
Candidate Votes Pct. Ruben Gallego DEM 1,413,206 49.5 Kari Lake GOP 1,381,021 48.4 Eduardo Quintana GRN 59,595 2.1
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Interestingly enough JC came up in conversation with my builder the other day. He used to love him in the Top Gear golden era, but went right off him when he punched an underling. I don’t think he can play the man of the people card so much anymore
"Liberals had nine years to decipher Mr. Trump’s appeal — and they failed. The Democrats are a party of college graduates, as the whole world understands by now, of Ph.D.s and genius-grant winners and the best consultants money can buy. Mr. Trump is a con man straight out of Mark Twain; he will say anything, promise anything, do nothing. But his movement baffled the party of education and innovation. Their most brilliant minds couldn’t figure him out."
Perhaps an indication of where Trump is going to go with Ukraine can be seen in this Tweet from Musk:
In response to: "The most under-reported story in Washington is how much corrupt Ukrainian cash is trying to buy influence. It wasn’t just Hunter Biden. Most of the warmongers are PAID."
Do you think the story is false or just inconvenient so shouldn't be discussed?
I see why PB doesn't need a new Saturday Morning Poster any more.
Bit harsh.
We are at war with Russia.
It might not look like it, as it is a proxy war, but it is a war nonetheless.
If Williamglenn was a paid shill, I'd at least have respect for the fact he was getting paid...
The use of the word 'warmongers' in that tweet is quite instructive. Implying that Ukraine are the warmongers here, not Russia.
PB's own Lord Haw Haw can do one, as far as I'm concerned.
Attacking other posters weakens debate on PB. I'm not a fan of Williamglenn, but he's entitled to give his views without being compared with a traitor. The effect is to make open debate less likely.
Personally, I think Ukraine needs a compromise, such as yielding Crimea and the easternmost provinces in return for the majority of the country to be free to join the EU and NATO, rather than N more years of conflict. Whether a compromise is in fact available isn't clear, but it needs to be explored. Others feel that no reasonable compromise is possible, and we should step up aid to Ukraine. Both are legitimate views and it gets us nowhere to regard either as treacherous.
If that were on offer, then Ukraine might consider it. But it’s not, and under a Trump administration, it seems even more unlikely. He’s barely on board with staying in the existing structure. (As an aside, “reasonable compromise” is pretty damn insulting to describe a deal with a country which invaded without excuse, and has murdered, and continues to murder, thousands of civilians, but I’ll accept the point that emotion shouldn’t overwhelm analysis.)
Whether or not that theory has any truth to it (they usually don’t), with Musk in his current privileged position we are as close as we’ve ever been to living in a Bond film plot.
Good evening Copilot. Every Bond film has an introductory sequence where M and Bond describe the villian and the problem to be solved. Please write such a sequence with Elon Musk as the villian.
Good evening [redacted]. The sequence is as follows:
* M: "Good morning, 007. We have a situation that requires your immediate attention. Our intelligence has identified a new threat, and it's someone you might find... intriguing. Elon Musk, the tech billionaire and CEO of multiple companies, has gone rogue. His latest venture, a secretive project codenamed 'Project Prometheus,' aims to monopolize global energy resources and control the world's power supply."
* Bond: "Elon Musk? The man behind electric cars and space travel? What's his endgame?"
* M: "Precisely. Musk's public persona as a visionary entrepreneur is a perfect cover. In reality, he's developed a network of advanced satellites capable of harnessing solar energy on an unprecedented scale. If he succeeds, he will have the power to dictate terms to every nation on Earth. Governments will be at his mercy, and the balance of power will shift dramatically."
* Bond: "Sounds like he's playing a dangerous game. What's our plan?"
* M: "Your mission is to infiltrate Musk's inner circle, gather intelligence on Project Prometheus, and neutralize the threat. We've arranged for you to attend a high-profile tech summit in Silicon Valley where Musk will be unveiling his latest innovations. Use your charm and skills to get close to him, but be cautious. Musk is highly intelligent and has a network of loyal followers who will protect him at all costs."
* Bond: "Understood, M. I'll make sure Musk's ambitions don't see the light of day."
* M: "Good luck, 007. The world is counting on you."
If there’s not Roger Moore raising an eyebrow and saying that something doesn’t smell quite right about Musk I’m not investing….
Voters do care about their identity but in the form of their job, their community, their faith and their nation. Not their race, sexuality and not even ultimately their gender given more women voted for Trump than Harris expected.
"Liberals had nine years to decipher Mr. Trump’s appeal — and they failed. The Democrats are a party of college graduates, as the whole world understands by now, of Ph.D.s and genius-grant winners and the best consultants money can buy. Mr. Trump is a con man straight out of Mark Twain; he will say anything, promise anything, do nothing. But his movement baffled the party of education and innovation. Their most brilliant minds couldn’t figure him out."
What are the issues around several European countries making decisions in parallel and moving to implement.
Obviously Putin's patsies in the new USA Government will start mouthing threats and throwing tantrums.
But if they want to isolate themselves from Europe 1920s (I think) style, then the corollary is that expect European countries to start taking decisions for themselves.
So let's do it.
If only it was that simple
If we are to have a USA withdrawing from the wider world, as seems fairly clear, then relationships will adjust, and need to adjust. And as always we start from here.
Why is such a measure not possible?
It is just wishful thinking and the EU itself is bitterly divided with some openly supporters of Putin
Trump has just made everything unpredictable with no easy solutions
I note the Mirror is reporting that Trump would block Mandelson's appointment
Allegedly because Lord Mandelbrot's of his association with the EU.
So that's presumably Cathy Ashton done as well, since she was the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy for five years. Has anyone told hin?
Why is Trump so scared of the EU, and why does he think it's any of his business whom we make our Ambassador?
He really is a frightened little mouse, isn't he?
Nigel must be feeding him this stuff. I can't see Trump giving a God damn shit about the EU otherwise.
Musk hates the EU because it interferes in his business interests. Secondly Trump cannot block the appointment of an ambassador. He can refuse to talk to him but that's it. And nothing to stop Mandelson building contacts in Washington more broadly. Perhaps he is just testing Starmer to see if he is weak. More likely it's part of Trump's plan to separate us from the EU by exempting us from tariffs. The question there is why is Trump so keen to cut us off from the EU, or stop us entering the EU orbit?
Again it's him again aligning with Russian foreign policy.
Actually, any state can refuse an Ambassador from another state . It is nearly never done - the protocol is that the name of the Ambassador to be is suggested in back channel discussions, everyone agrees first, then the formal request goes through.
I don't actually think Mandelson would be a good choice anyway. He's a former senior politician himself, has a big ego and is used to being a player on the pitch not acting as a servant. Aren't Ambassadors generally best being low key figures?
The thing I find strange about the story, is that the UK ambassador to the US has always been a professional diplomat, as far as I am aware.
It's an American thing to use ex-politicians and chums of the President as Ambassadors.
Agree it is unseemly. Though there is precedent with it being offered. I think Thatcher offered Heath the American ambassadorship to get him out of the Commons. Obviously the sour old tosspot refused.
Politically for Starmer, sending Farage would be a masterstroke. Appeal to Trump, giving him his buddy, remove Farage from the board politically, leave Reform without their charismatic leader, potentially (though I doubt it would go back to Labour - perhaps a local independent?) deprive Refuk of a seat. So much of an open goal that Starmer will clearly flunk it, if indeed it's still on offer.
You think a Labour PM would want Farage as his primary intermediary with an American administration?
No rumour is Trump's first trip to the UK as President again will include a trip to Clacton hosted by Farage
FWIW - high profile, on twitter, Harris activist - Victor Shi - has really been bigging Newsom the last couple of days.
Good grief Newsom would be an absolute gift to the GOP. And sorry to say the crowd pushing Buttigieg are delusional, do they really think the USA is ready for a gay President . In an ideal world it wouldn’t be an issue but it is .
Buttigieg is a moderate from the Midwest which the Democrats must win back. A ticket with him and Shapiro would be effective
This is another weird narrative that some of the US media are pushing. Trump doesn't have a mandate....he won the full monty of everything, and still no he doesn't have a mandate.
This is another weird narrative that some of the US media are pushing. Trump doesn't have a mandate....he won the full monty of everything, and still no he doesn't have a mandate.
Harris has just hit 48% and still a lot of votes to count.
She might even get close to John Kerry and Hillary Clinton's voteshare
It's notable that if she had narrowly won the electoral college she probably would have narrowly lost the popular vote, and that outcome was around 100/1 on election night. Definitely a value bet at the time.
Voters do care about their identity but in the form of their job, their community, their faith and their nation. Not their race, sexuality and not even ultimately their gender given more women voted for Trump than Harris expected.
That is the lesson of the election
I would have said the same thing but with more words and less poetry. Well done.
I am feeling a little bit more hopeful about my bet for AZSenate. Lake is pulling it back but at 83.7% counted and a gap of around 34,325 she *may* not be closing the gap fast enough. Will know more tomorrow and until then this is just a guess
Now 84 percent of votes have been counted.
Candidate Votes Pct. Ruben Gallego DEM 1,413,206 49.5 Kari Lake GOP 1,381,021 48.4 Eduardo Quintana GRN 59,595 2.1
Lead now 32,185.
Now 87.1 percent of votes have been counted.
Votes received and percentages of total vote Candidate Votes Pct. Ruben Gallego DEM 1,470,600 49.7 Kari Lake GOP 1,425,546 48.2 Eduardo Quintana GRN 62,779 2.1
I am feeling a little bit more hopeful about my bet for AZSenate. Lake is pulling it back but at 83.7% counted and a gap of around 34,325 she *may* not be closing the gap fast enough. Will know more tomorrow and until then this is just a guess
Now 84 percent of votes have been counted.
Candidate Votes Pct. Ruben Gallego DEM 1,413,206 49.5 Kari Lake GOP 1,381,021 48.4 Eduardo Quintana GRN 59,595 2.1
Lead now 32,185.
Now 87.1 percent of votes have been counted.
Votes received and percentages of total vote Candidate Votes Pct. Ruben Gallego DEM 1,470,600 49.7 Kari Lake GOP 1,425,546 48.2 Eduardo Quintana GRN 62,779 2.1
Lead now 45,054
I may have pulled this off.
If you need a visualisation of this, think of the sentry guns in Aliens. Although Kari Lake's xenomorphs are coming down the corridor, Gallego's sentry guns *might* be holding them off...
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
"Poorer voters flocked to Trump and other data points from the election FT analysis of this week's election results paint a dire picture for the Democrats"
What are the issues around several European countries making decisions in parallel and moving to implement.
Obviously Putin's patsies in the new USA Government will start mouthing threats and throwing tantrums.
But if they want to isolate themselves from Europe 1920s (I think) style, then the corollary is that expect European countries to start taking decisions for themselves.
So let's do it.
If only it was that simple
If we are to have a USA withdrawing from the wider world, as seems fairly clear, then relationships will adjust, and need to adjust. And as always we start from here.
Why is such a measure not possible?
It is just wishful thinking and the EU itself is bitterly divided with some openly supporters of Putin
Trump has just made everything unpredictable with no easy solutions
I note the Mirror is reporting that Trump would block Mandelson's appointment
Allegedly because Lord Mandelbrot's of his association with the EU.
So that's presumably Cathy Ashton done as well, since she was the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy for five years. Has anyone told hin?
Why is Trump so scared of the EU, and why does he think it's any of his business whom we make our Ambassador?
He really is a frightened little mouse, isn't he?
Nigel must be feeding him this stuff. I can't see Trump giving a God damn shit about the EU otherwise.
Musk hates the EU because it interferes in his business interests. Secondly Trump cannot block the appointment of an ambassador. He can refuse to talk to him but that's it. And nothing to stop Mandelson building contacts in Washington more broadly. Perhaps he is just testing Starmer to see if he is weak. More likely it's part of Trump's plan to separate us from the EU by exempting us from tariffs. The question there is why is Trump so keen to cut us off from the EU, or stop us entering the EU orbit?
Again it's him again aligning with Russian foreign policy.
Actually, any state can refuse an Ambassador from another state . It is nearly never done - the protocol is that the name of the Ambassador to be is suggested in back channel discussions, everyone agrees first, then the formal request goes through.
I don't actually think Mandelson would be a good choice anyway. He's a former senior politician himself, has a big ego and is used to being a player on the pitch not acting as a servant. Aren't Ambassadors generally best being low key figures?
The thing I find strange about the story, is that the UK ambassador to the US has always been a professional diplomat, as far as I am aware.
It's an American thing to use ex-politicians and chums of the President as Ambassadors.
Labour has form on this. Peter Jay was appointed ambassador in what was a great scandal at the time
15/8 on Martin to be Taoiseach after the election is worth a look. If FF & FG do a rotating Taoiseach again, as they did with the present government, then there's a pretty good chance that Martin takes over and has first go, given that FG have had the Taoiseach for the last couple of years.
You're also covered if FF are the senior partner in a FF/SF coalition, or somehow FF govern as a minority.
15/8 on Martin to be Taoiseach after the election is worth a look. If FF & FG do a rotating Taoiseach again, as they did with the present government, then there's a pretty good chance that Martin takes over and has first go, given that FG have had the Taoiseach for the last couple of years.
You're also covered if FF are the senior partner in a FF/SF coalition, or somehow FF govern as a minority.
9/4 with Unibet and MGM but what would worry me about that bet is that Martin is also favourite to be next president.
15/8 on Martin to be Taoiseach after the election is worth a look. If FF & FG do a rotating Taoiseach again, as they did with the present government, then there's a pretty good chance that Martin takes over and has first go, given that FG have had the Taoiseach for the last couple of years.
You're also covered if FF are the senior partner in a FF/SF coalition, or somehow FF govern as a minority.
9/4 with Unibet and MGM but what would worry me about that bet is that Martin is also favourite to be next president.
I'm surprised. I would have thought that if Martin was considering a run for the Presidency next year he wouldn't be standing for re-election to the Dail. But I am relatively new to Irish politics.
15/8 on Martin to be Taoiseach after the election is worth a look. If FF & FG do a rotating Taoiseach again, as they did with the present government, then there's a pretty good chance that Martin takes over and has first go, given that FG have had the Taoiseach for the last couple of years.
You're also covered if FF are the senior partner in a FF/SF coalition, or somehow FF govern as a minority.
9/4 with Unibet and MGM but what would worry me about that bet is that Martin is also favourite to be next president.
I'm surprised. I would have thought that if Martin was considering a run for the Presidency next year he wouldn't be standing for re-election to the Dail. But I am relatively new to Irish politics.
I've no idea tbh. I just looked at the two markets on Oddschecker.
"Poorer voters flocked to Trump and other data points from the election FT analysis of this week's election results paint a dire picture for the Democrats"
I'm slightly wary of this conclusion. It may well be correct in itself but overall Trump's total was about the same as last time so if some voters were flocking to Trump, others were flocking away. Kamala's vote was well down on Biden's.
In addition, there was record early voting by about half the electorate, and these voters would not be captured in conventional exit polls.
"Poorer voters flocked to Trump and other data points from the election FT analysis of this week's election results paint a dire picture for the Democrats"
Question is whether it's a dire picture for Democrats or a dire picture for anyone who isn't Donald Trump. I'm inclined to the latter, myself. People like him come along from time to time in history, and nobody has really found an effective counter to them.
Meanwhile, since it's Sunday, some religious splits on the US election;
Voters do care about their identity but in the form of their job, their community, their faith and their nation. Not their race, sexuality and not even ultimately their gender given more women voted for Trump than Harris expected.
That is the lesson of the election
Voters, people, are complicated and they can care about a lot of different things. The large disparities in voting behaviour by gender and ethnicity in the US suggest those demographics matter.
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Isn't that competing in the same space as Nige?
Clarkson's a Remainer.
Not only that, but quite vocally anti-American at times. And very much on the side of Ukraine. He’s keen on overhauling planning and defeating the NIMBYs too. All ideal for our current climate.
Sky News: had 123,750 voters voted differently in certain states Harris would have won.
Is not the problem with such calculations put against outcome of all elections, the probability of such precision is actually going to be long odds unlikely?
Similar analysis was done in 2016 when Trump squeaked home by razor-thin margins in several rust-belt states. You could do something similar with any close election.
Indeed, but it’s useful as a reminder that this was a fairly close election. Some of the post-election commentary needs that reminder.
What are the issues around several European countries making decisions in parallel and moving to implement.
Obviously Putin's patsies in the new USA Government will start mouthing threats and throwing tantrums.
But if they want to isolate themselves from Europe 1920s (I think) style, then the corollary is that expect European countries to start taking decisions for themselves.
So let's do it.
If only it was that simple
If we are to have a USA withdrawing from the wider world, as seems fairly clear, then relationships will adjust, and need to adjust. And as always we start from here.
Why is such a measure not possible?
It is just wishful thinking and the EU itself is bitterly divided with some openly supporters of Putin
Trump has just made everything unpredictable with no easy solutions
I note the Mirror is reporting that Trump would block Mandelson's appointment
Allegedly because Lord Mandelbrot's of his association with the EU.
So that's presumably Cathy Ashton done as well, since she was the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy for five years. Has anyone told hin?
Why is Trump so scared of the EU, and why does he think it's any of his business whom we make our Ambassador?
He really is a frightened little mouse, isn't he?
Nigel must be feeding him this stuff. I can't see Trump giving a God damn shit about the EU otherwise.
Musk hates the EU because it interferes in his business interests. Secondly Trump cannot block the appointment of an ambassador. He can refuse to talk to him but that's it. And nothing to stop Mandelson building contacts in Washington more broadly. Perhaps he is just testing Starmer to see if he is weak. More likely it's part of Trump's plan to separate us from the EU by exempting us from tariffs. The question there is why is Trump so keen to cut us off from the EU, or stop us entering the EU orbit?
Again it's him again aligning with Russian foreign policy.
Musk also has persuaded the president-elect to legislate against social media censorship, pitting the American government against TwiX's rivals and also the EU.
The only social media censorship Musk wants is the censorship he directly controls at his whim.
"The anti-fireworks lobby is a symptom of our ageing society Pet-owners are the most indulged class in the country. By Will Dunn
One of the most troubling statistics from the UK economy is this: in the year to June of this year, customers of Nationwide, the UK’s largest building society, spent £51.8m on pets and £37.1m on childcare. As a nation, Britain appears to spend more looking after the children of other species than it does on its own offspring. The roughly £10bn a year the British public spends on dogs is ten times what the government spends tackling homelessness."
This is ridiculous nonsense… but it reminds me I need to go online to order some more hypoallergenic cat food, the one expensive brand that works for the cat’s picky digestive system. Maybe I should get a new catnip toy too.
… with fascistic conspiracy theories and hypocrisy?
That call to arms sounds like Elon Musk wrote it, since it is in line with his previous statements around free speech, and even his concession (since Brazil) that TwiX will comply with the law, and threatened action against his competitors (as well as the government, universities and the fake news media).
"The anti-fireworks lobby is a symptom of our ageing society Pet-owners are the most indulged class in the country. By Will Dunn
One of the most troubling statistics from the UK economy is this: in the year to June of this year, customers of Nationwide, the UK’s largest building society, spent £51.8m on pets and £37.1m on childcare. As a nation, Britain appears to spend more looking after the children of other species than it does on its own offspring. The roughly £10bn a year the British public spends on dogs is ten times what the government spends tackling homelessness."
Well as a dog owner I have to pay vet bills, but not my children's doctor's bills (directly anyway) and my children didn't tend to eat rotting squirrels, wallets, iPhones, 1.5 kg blocks of cheese stolen from the kitchen and so on.
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Suspect Clarkson's got too many skeletons in the closet and given his recent heart scare, who knows if he'll even be alive in 2029...
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Suspect Clarkson's got too many skeletons in the closet and given his recent heart scare, who knows if he'll even be alive in 2029...
I doubt he has the teambuilding, leadership or executive skills.
He'd do a better more competent Boris than Boris though.
Harris has just hit 48% and still a lot of votes to count.
She might even get close to John Kerry and Hillary Clinton's voteshare
It's notable that if she had narrowly won the electoral college she probably would have narrowly lost the popular vote, and that outcome was around 100/1 on election night. Definitely a value bet at the time.
It's important to understand where you screwed the pooch.
I'm still happy on my landslide ECVs bets on Harris and Trump, the latter came darn close, and that Harriswin-HarrislosePV bet was another I was on at long-odds.
"The anti-fireworks lobby is a symptom of our ageing society Pet-owners are the most indulged class in the country. By Will Dunn
One of the most troubling statistics from the UK economy is this: in the year to June of this year, customers of Nationwide, the UK’s largest building society, spent £51.8m on pets and £37.1m on childcare. As a nation, Britain appears to spend more looking after the children of other species than it does on its own offspring. The roughly £10bn a year the British public spends on dogs is ten times what the government spends tackling homelessness."
Well as a dog owner I have to pay vet bills, but not my children's doctor's bills (directly anyway) and my children didn't tend to eat rotting squirrels, wallets, iPhones, 1.5 kg blocks of cheese stolen from the kitchen and so on.
The government could induce a new test for all proposed legislation, tax and spending decisions and new regulations: does this affect the balance of financial benefit, rights and obligations between those over 60 and those under 30.
Across the parliament the balance of measures should be neutral or net in favour of those under 30.
Call it the government’s promise to the young, or “youth triple-lock”.
15/8 on Martin to be Taoiseach after the election is worth a look. If FF & FG do a rotating Taoiseach again, as they did with the present government, then there's a pretty good chance that Martin takes over and has first go, given that FG have had the Taoiseach for the last couple of years.
You're also covered if FF are the senior partner in a FF/SF coalition, or somehow FF govern as a minority.
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Suspect Clarkson's got too many skeletons in the closet and given his recent heart scare, who knows if he'll even be alive in 2029...
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Suspect Clarkson's got too many skeletons in the closet and given his recent heart scare, who knows if he'll even be alive in 2029...
I doubt he has the teambuilding, leadership or executive skills.
He'd do a better more competent Boris than Boris though.
On the other hand, he probably does have the self-awareness to know that he's the frontman, there to give other people's lines the best possible reading.
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Isn't that competing in the same space as Nige?
He'd have to join the Tories.
I can see the Tories gaining back a lot of their rural seats next time, provided they don't get arrogant and complacent - big asks, because things like VAT on school fees in the home counties and ruining IHT relief for farmers will get a lot of voters to defect from abstaining or from the LDs/Labour.
Arizona has been called for Trump, reversing the Dems’ 2020 gain. It means he’s made a clean sweep of all seven swing states and with 312 electoral votes, scores the best electoral college showing for any Republican since 1988.
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Isn't that competing in the same space as Nige?
He'd have to join the Tories.
I can see the Tories gaining back a lot of their rural seats next time, provided they don't get arrogant and complacent - big asks, because things like VAT on school fees in the home counties and ruining IHT relief for farmers will get a lot of voters to defect from abstaining or from the LDs/Labour.
The LDs very publicly don't support Vat on private schools nor the IHT change on farms.
Jeremy Clarkson is an act. He isn't necessarily a Tory.
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Isn't that competing in the same space as Nige?
He'd have to join the Tories.
I can see the Tories gaining back a lot of their rural seats next time, provided they don't get arrogant and complacent - big asks, because things like VAT on school fees in the home counties and ruining IHT relief for farmers will get a lot of voters to defect from abstaining or from the LDs/Labour.
Both policies their Lib Dem opponents are vocally against, opportunistically so on school fees but seemingly ideologically on IHT. So harder for the Tories than if they were up against Labour in most of those areas.
Notable - anecdotal - difference in reaction to the APR changes in Northern farming areas compared with Kent, which I’m more familiar with through the vineyard. It barely seems to have registered there - nothing on the WhatsApp which has at least 3 farms on it - but I think that’s probably because they have smaller average land holdings and the farmhouses are a significant portion of the value. Whereas in parts of the North (particularly East of the Pennines) huge tracts of land are owned by diversified estates and business owners.
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Isn't that competing in the same space as Nige?
He'd have to join the Tories.
I can see the Tories gaining back a lot of their rural seats next time, provided they don't get arrogant and complacent - big asks, because things like VAT on school fees in the home counties and ruining IHT relief for farmers will get a lot of voters to defect from abstaining or from the LDs/Labour.
The LDs very publicly don't support Vat on private schools nor the IHT change on farms.
Jeremy Clarkson is an act. He isn't necessarily a Tory.
I think he probably is a Tory at heart, but he’s also a thinker with unpredictable views, and not someone who just says things because that’s what his “team” are supposed to think.
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Suspect Clarkson's got too many skeletons in the closet and given his recent heart scare, who knows if he'll even be alive in 2029...
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Suspect Clarkson's got too many skeletons in the closet and given his recent heart scare, who knows if he'll even be alive in 2029...
I doubt he has the teambuilding, leadership or executive skills.
He'd do a better more competent Boris than Boris though.
Jeremy Clarkson co-ran Top Gear for years, so probably does tick teambuilding, leadership and executive boxes. Plus, he's a mate of Call Me Dave's. And even on that single issue, has a more thought-out position than Nigel Farage, whose analysis is limited to blaming a single scapegoat: it's all the EU's immigrants' fault.
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Isn't that competing in the same space as Nige?
Clarkson's a Remainer.
Not only that, but quite vocally anti-American at times. And very much on the side of Ukraine. He’s keen on overhauling planning and defeating the NIMBYs too. All ideal for our current climate.
I think his anti-Americanism is mostly because their cars are so shite.
"The anti-fireworks lobby is a symptom of our ageing society Pet-owners are the most indulged class in the country. By Will Dunn
One of the most troubling statistics from the UK economy is this: in the year to June of this year, customers of Nationwide, the UK’s largest building society, spent £51.8m on pets and £37.1m on childcare. As a nation, Britain appears to spend more looking after the children of other species than it does on its own offspring. The roughly £10bn a year the British public spends on dogs is ten times what the government spends tackling homelessness."
Well as a dog owner I have to pay vet bills, but not my children's doctor's bills (directly anyway) and my children didn't tend to eat rotting squirrels, wallets, iPhones, 1.5 kg blocks of cheese stolen from the kitchen and so on.
The government could induce a new test for all proposed legislation, tax and spending decisions and new regulations: does this affect the balance of financial benefit, rights and obligations between those over 60 and those under 30.
Across the parliament the balance of measures should be neutral or net in favour of those under 30.
Call it the government’s promise to the young, or “youth triple-lock”.
Good idea, although my post was in jest just to show how expensive it was to own a mad dog. He loves the vet to bits, even though he spends quite some time there being induced to throw up after consuming something he shouldn't. The list is endless. He is a damn clever thief as well.
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Isn't that competing in the same space as Nige?
He'd have to join the Tories.
I can see the Tories gaining back a lot of their rural seats next time, provided they don't get arrogant and complacent - big asks, because things like VAT on school fees in the home counties and ruining IHT relief for farmers will get a lot of voters to defect from abstaining or from the LDs/Labour.
The LDs very publicly don't support Vat on private schools nor the IHT change on farms.
Jeremy Clarkson is an act. He isn't necessarily a Tory.
No-one cares though. Everyone knows the LDs are Santa's Little Helper, aren't to be trusted, won't ever lead a government and, if they had the chance, would vote for Labour and its budgets with only one or two tokenistic changes in a jiffy.
So, if they're seriously worried about this they'll vote Tory.
"The anti-fireworks lobby is a symptom of our ageing society Pet-owners are the most indulged class in the country. By Will Dunn
One of the most troubling statistics from the UK economy is this: in the year to June of this year, customers of Nationwide, the UK’s largest building society, spent £51.8m on pets and £37.1m on childcare. As a nation, Britain appears to spend more looking after the children of other species than it does on its own offspring. The roughly £10bn a year the British public spends on dogs is ten times what the government spends tackling homelessness."
This is ridiculous nonsense… but it reminds me I need to go online to order some more hypoallergenic cat food, the one expensive brand that works for the cat’s picky digestive system. Maybe I should get a new catnip toy too.
Having Vet fees to pay does remind us what it would be like in the UK if we didn't have an NHS.
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Isn't that competing in the same space as Nige?
He'd have to join the Tories.
I can see the Tories gaining back a lot of their rural seats next time, provided they don't get arrogant and complacent - big asks, because things like VAT on school fees in the home counties and ruining IHT relief for farmers will get a lot of voters to defect from abstaining or from the LDs/Labour.
The LDs very publicly don't support Vat on private schools nor the IHT change on farms.
Jeremy Clarkson is an act. He isn't necessarily a Tory.
No-one cares though. Everyone knows the LDs are Santa's Little Helper, aren't to be trusted, won't ever lead a government and, if they had the chance, would vote for Labour and its budgets with only one or two tokenistic changes in a jiffy.
So, if they're seriously worried about this they'll vote Tory.
What those LDs that went into coalition with the Tories? One LD here who had never voted Labour in my 70 years of existence.
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Isn't that competing in the same space as Nige?
He'd have to join the Tories.
I can see the Tories gaining back a lot of their rural seats next time, provided they don't get arrogant and complacent - big asks, because things like VAT on school fees in the home counties and ruining IHT relief for farmers will get a lot of voters to defect from abstaining or from the LDs/Labour.
The LDs very publicly don't support Vat on private schools nor the IHT change on farms.
Jeremy Clarkson is an act. He isn't necessarily a Tory.
No-one cares though. Everyone knows the LDs are Santa's Little Helper, aren't to be trusted, won't ever lead a government and, if they had the chance, would vote for Labour and its budgets with only one or two tokenistic changes in a jiffy.
So, if they're seriously worried about this they'll vote Tory.
What those LDs that went into coalition with the Tories? One LD here who had never voted Labour in my 70 years of existence.
I would be interested if any other PBers have gone to therapy and how they found it.
That's a good question, Horse. Let me offer a few thoughts, which I hope are helpful. I detest the word "therapy"; it's nebulous, ill-defined and empty - whilst an important thing about counselling (the word I will use) is about recognising an issue, naming it, taking responsibility for it, and thinking carefully about requirements and best approaches.
I started with counselling as a volunteer on my University Nightline, where we were all under 22 so had little experience and no qualifications, and were limited in role to helping people explore the different aspects of their own worries and concerns as they paused to think.
At one end counselling is going out for a walk or a pub lunch with a friend to get a different perspective. At the other it is a specialist professional service timetabled and planned. In between there could be "life coaching". And it can tip over into medical things if there are medical causes eg imbalances causing depression or eg SAD.
Two examples. My family (my dad + children) had Consultant Level genetic counselling around whether to test for a genetic condition where if you have it your mind starts disintegrating from around the age of 40. There is a 50:50 pass on to kids probability. So decisions affected will include "if I have it will I want to have children who will then have the same decision", or "do I choose not to have children" or "do I not test, which means my children will each have a 50% chance of having it", "do I want to have the knowledge that my mind will go, or would I rather not know from not to then that it will / will not happen". Big questions.
I also had a long "3rd party view form a friend" phone call when I though I was being manipulated / bullied around a family will settlement. I think I was, but the 3rd party view help me understand what I had done that could have led to that being done as a tactic, so helped me focus on the core underlying issue not the one I was looking at.
I've always taken care to have friend available who on request will give me the time to talk about things that concern me, and to whom I give permission to say the normally unacceptable. Why I do that is a different story around me not wanting to be programmed by cultural norms - for another day.
I would be interested if any other PBers have gone to therapy and how they found it.
That's a good question, Horse. Let me offer a few thoughts, which I hope are helpful. I detest the word "therapy"; it's nebulous, ill-defined and empty - whilst an important thing about counselling (the word I will use) is about recognising an issue, naming it, taking responsibility for it, and thinking carefully about requirements and best approaches.
I started with counselling as a volunteer on my University Nightline, where we were all under 22 so had little experience and no qualifications, and were limited in role to helping people explore the different aspects of their own worries and concerns as they paused to think.
At one end counselling is going out for a walk or a pub lunch with a friend to get a different perspective. At the other it is a specialist professional service timetabled and planned. In between there could be "life coaching". And it can tip over into medical things if there are medical causes eg imbalances causing depression or eg SAD.
Two examples. My family (my dad + children) had Consultant Level genetic counselling around whether to test for a genetic condition where if you have it your mind starts disintegrating from around the age of 40. There is a 50:50 pass on to kids probability. So decisions affected will include "if I have it will I want to have children who will then have the same decision", or "do I choose not to have children" or "do I not test, which means my children will each have a 50% chance of having it", "do I want to have the knowledge that my mind will go, or would I rather not know from not to then that it will / will not happen". Big questions.
I also had a long "3rd party view form a friend" phone call when I though I was being manipulated / bullied around a family will settlement. I think I was, but the 3rd party view help me understand what I had done that could have led to that being done as a tactic, so helped me focus on the core underlying issue not the one I was looking at.
I've always taken care to have friend available who on request will give me the time to talk about things that concern me, and to whom I give permission to say the normally unacceptable. Why I do that is a different story around me not wanting to be programmed by cultural norms - for another day.
Second part:
IMO key points I find helpful are:
1 - The person in therapy owns the process. It need a projected start and finish. 2 - Describe the concern, say described on one sheet of A4 paper, and summarised in one para, and including criteria to tell "this is dealt with as far as I can see". Just doing this may be enough to make a difference. 3 - If counselling/ therapy is appropriate, identify what sort, who, what the brief is, and what the goals / "this is finished" criteria are - which are the triggers for the process to end or pause. 4 - It's not just about talking, but about doing and habits as well which have an impact. Body / environment matters as well as what is inside our heads. Stop something. Start something else. Get a dog. Start hiking. Take up bowls. Go to evensong for some silence and soothing music / ritual. Move house. Join a rock group. Do amdram. Volunteer at the food bank. Get a girlfriend or boyfriend. 5 - Keep it time limited for review, and "is this worth continuing".
Repeat as appropriate, but keep ownership / agency. Have a 3rd party eg friend who is in the loop, who you allow to say "perhaps it's time you stopped now."
I am feeling a little bit more hopeful about my bet for AZSenate. Lake is pulling it back but at 83.7% counted and a gap of around 34,325 she *may* not be closing the gap fast enough. Will know more tomorrow and until then this is just a guess
Now 84 percent of votes have been counted.
Candidate Votes Pct. Ruben Gallego DEM 1,413,206 49.5 Kari Lake GOP 1,381,021 48.4 Eduardo Quintana GRN 59,595 2.1
Lead now 32,185.
Now 87.1 percent of votes have been counted.
Votes received and percentages of total vote Candidate Votes Pct. Ruben Gallego DEM 1,470,600 49.7 Kari Lake GOP 1,425,546 48.2 Eduardo Quintana GRN 62,779 2.1
Lead now 45,054
I may have pulled this off.
If you need a visualisation of this, think of the sentry guns in Aliens. Although Kari Lake's xenomorphs are coming down the corridor, Gallego's sentry guns *might* be holding them off...
Comments
It's an occasionally irritating, but essentially harmless eccentricity.
Genuinely think that if Jeremy Clarkson entered politics now - it could be a moment. Britain’s Trump moment - but far more English and less authoritarian
Huge tax cut for rich, deport workers, tariff wars, and seizing control of setting interest rates at his desk in the WH. It won’t just be Arizona who’ll struggle to count the number of market corrections.
True, and to award big donors. Can't remember her name, but a generous Democrat was made ambassador to Luxembourg. (Obama administration?) She proceeded to drive the staff nuts, and finally had to be recalled.
(Could that help explain why wealthy Luxembourg is so chintzy in its support for NATO? Probably not, but I do think the current ambassador should make some efforts along those lines.)
Usually, the most important jobs go to pros, either in the state Department, or in politics. Some of the latter have been pretty good, for example, Benjamin Franklin.
Now is not the time for niceties.
The UK needs someone who can fawn and cajole, but has a clear-eyed view of British interests and will stand up to Trump when necessary. Trump respects people who show some backbone.
Mandelson seems ideal.
Farage is simply absurd, in no way can he represent the interests of HMG.
It is also in Britain’s interests to avoid a 10% tariff on the export of goods to the U.S.
A UK-USA trade deal itself is of dubious merit, given that want the U.S. wants (access to the NHS, market access for its agricultural products) are really things the UK doesn’t want.
"The most populous state in the union has one of the longest vote-counting processes. That’s partly because California has so many ballots to count and partly because the state makes it easy for its citizens to vote, which means election officials have to work harder to certify that ballots are valid.
The result is — it may take a while for results. As of midday Saturday, 10 House races in California had yet to be called, with control of the House on the line. Also uncalled were a few closely fought ballot initiatives, including one that would gradually raise the minimum wage to $18 per hour."
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/11/09/california-vote-count/
Those who complain about "vote suppression" should be pleased by these voting laws.
(For the record: I think there is some truth in Republican claims that Democrats commit vote fraud -- and some truth in Democratic claims that Republicans suppress votes. But far less than partisans on either side often say.)
jaunesBarbour....Rebel farmers threaten port and supermarket disruption
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/09/rachel-reeves-budget-farmers-inheritance-tax/
I still know we don’t have to swallow such games and large figures bounded around as fact. Lady Thatcher taught me that by her bravest actions.
As I pointed out, when Lady Thatcher Windfall Taxed Banks and Oil Industry in the 80’s, the Times and other papers no doubt printed the taxed industries view
“Maggie’s Tax Plans will be Ruinous for us, Industry Investment and our Customers.”
But her Treasury had crunched the numbers for her, so she faced it down, and a Legend for Strong Government was born.
And how exactly did Lady Thatcher know she was right? By understanding Capitalism and Entrepreneurship.
It’s never black and white every tax rise on business is passed on to customers, will cost jobs and restrict investment, just as it isn’t black and white every tax cut on business is passed on to customers. Governments cut tax on business to encourage start ups, investment and economic growth. But Governments don’t do these things themselves, they pass the decision what to do with the credit change, on.
Government can’t force businesses to charge customers less, as letters and lobbying from Sunak and Hunt were telling them too.
https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/national/23609496.supermarkets-hit-back-sunak-warns-retailers-price-fairly/
Businesses that had plans to expand in the next year, will still have that desire and plan, as far as they can still manage to absorb and progress, the will to do so is there. Whilst those who got Bank of England and Sunak’s government so upset, by fleecing customers during cost of living crisis in order to boost profits, why are you on their side right now?
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1855119856649355729
Candidate Votes Pct.
Ruben Gallego DEM 1,413,206 49.5
Kari Lake GOP 1,381,021 48.4
Eduardo Quintana GRN 59,595 2.1
Lead now 32,185.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/09/opinion/democrats-trump-elites-centrism.html
That is the lesson of the election
https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1855395889495351711
Votes received and percentages of total vote
Candidate Votes Pct.
Ruben Gallego DEM 1,470,600 49.7
Kari Lake GOP 1,425,546 48.2
Eduardo Quintana GRN 62,779 2.1
Lead now 45,054
I may have pulled this off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BKefUNZOHA
FT analysis of this week's election results paint a dire picture for the Democrats"
https://archive.is/UVQQW#selection-1753.0-1757.82
You're also covered if FF are the senior partner in a FF/SF coalition, or somehow FF govern as a minority.
In addition, there was record early voting by about half the electorate, and these voters would not be captured in conventional exit polls.
Meanwhile, since it's Sunday, some religious splits on the US election;
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls?amp=1
In other words, it is identity voting, but it's a popular identity, so that's OK. But as they say, there's one born again every minute.
Is one of the greatest goals we have ever seen actually an own goal by Terry Butcher.
https://x.com/retrofootballnw/status/1855337815292403791?s=61
He'd do a better more competent Boris than Boris though.
I'm still happy on my landslide ECVs bets on Harris and Trump, the latter came darn close, and that Harriswin-HarrislosePV bet was another I was on at long-odds.
I’ll bet they have a double take !!
Across the parliament the balance of measures should be neutral or net in favour of those under 30.
Call it the government’s promise to the young, or “youth triple-lock”.
More Mayor Johnson than PM Johnson.
I can see the Tories gaining back a lot of their rural seats next time, provided they don't get arrogant and complacent - big asks, because things like VAT on school fees in the home counties and ruining IHT relief for farmers will get a lot of voters to defect from abstaining or from the LDs/Labour.
Arizona has been called for Trump, reversing the Dems’ 2020 gain. It means he’s made a clean sweep of all seven swing states and with 312 electoral votes, scores the best electoral college showing for any Republican since 1988.
https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/1855521571634307526
https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1855288007827296314?s=46
Jeremy Clarkson is an act. He isn't necessarily a Tory.
Notable - anecdotal - difference in reaction to the APR changes in Northern farming areas compared with Kent, which I’m more familiar with through the vineyard. It barely seems to have registered there - nothing on the WhatsApp which has at least 3 farms on it - but I think that’s probably because they have smaller average land holdings and the farmhouses are a significant portion of the value. Whereas in parts of the North (particularly East of the Pennines) huge tracts of land are owned by diversified estates and business owners.
the EU'simmigrants' fault.NEW THREAD
So, if they're seriously worried about this they'll vote Tory.
I started with counselling as a volunteer on my University Nightline, where we were all under 22 so had little experience and no qualifications, and were limited in role to helping people explore the different aspects of their own worries and concerns as they paused to think.
At one end counselling is going out for a walk or a pub lunch with a friend to get a different perspective. At the other it is a specialist professional service timetabled and planned. In between there could be "life coaching". And it can tip over into medical things if there are medical causes eg imbalances causing depression or eg SAD.
Two examples. My family (my dad + children) had Consultant Level genetic counselling around whether to test for a genetic condition where if you have it your mind starts disintegrating from around the age of 40. There is a 50:50 pass on to kids probability. So decisions affected will include "if I have it will I want to have children who will then have the same decision", or "do I choose not to have children" or "do I not test, which means my children will each have a 50% chance of having it", "do I want to have the knowledge that my mind will go, or would I rather not know from not to then that it will / will not happen". Big questions.
I also had a long "3rd party view form a friend" phone call when I though I was being manipulated / bullied around a family will settlement. I think I was, but the 3rd party view help me understand what I had done that could have led to that being done as a tactic, so helped me focus on the core underlying issue not the one I was looking at.
I've always taken care to have friend available who on request will give me the time to talk about things that concern me, and to whom I give permission to say the normally unacceptable. Why I do that is a different story around me not wanting to be programmed by cultural norms - for another day.
IMO key points I find helpful are:
1 - The person in therapy owns the process. It need a projected start and finish.
2 - Describe the concern, say described on one sheet of A4 paper, and summarised in one para, and including criteria to tell "this is dealt with as far as I can see". Just doing this may be enough to make a difference.
3 - If counselling/ therapy is appropriate, identify what sort, who, what the brief is, and what the goals / "this is finished" criteria are - which are the triggers for the process to end or pause.
4 - It's not just about talking, but about doing and habits as well which have an impact. Body / environment matters as well as what is inside our heads. Stop something. Start something else. Get a dog. Start hiking. Take up bowls. Go to evensong for some silence and soothing music / ritual. Move house. Join a rock group. Do amdram. Volunteer at the food bank. Get a girlfriend or boyfriend.
5 - Keep it time limited for review, and "is this worth continuing".
Repeat as appropriate, but keep ownership / agency. Have a 3rd party eg friend who is in the loop, who you allow to say "perhaps it's time you stopped now."
HTH
If it is true (I'm not comfortable with calling it at 89.7% of votes in) then this is my 4th of 4 bets in my election book[1] to win. Happy news.
Notes
[1] See https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5018658#Comment_5018658
Some johnny come lately limp lettuce liberal
@MoonRabbit