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Popular mandates – politicalbetting.com
Popular mandates – politicalbetting.com
With the polls predicting a very close race we shouldn’t be surprised if the winner of the electoral college will be the candidate who finished second in the popular vote.
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These markets are still showing value in Harris.
My problem is that if Trump wins the popular vote he's going to be complaining forever that he only lost because of dodgy voting elsewhere where things are close.
So for may sanity I hope for a Harris win on both popular votes and in the Electoral College.
He said yesterday he should never have left the Whitehouse in 2020
It will take a generation to undo the bureaucrats, judges, and decisions put in place over the last 8 to 16 years. And during that whole time, Theil, Musk, and Koch won't go quietly away. They will continue to attempt to push the United States into an oligarchy. We're more than halfway there as it is. If you're already exhausted, buckle up because this is, regrettably, our political future for decades to come.
Value loser, I think.
(Though the odds are long enough for it to form part of a cheap hedging strategy.)
Yes, see the PB entry under 'Keir Starmer'.
Bush 2000 and Trump 2016.
Starmer 2024, ahem.
Trump could lose the popular vote, win 270-268 and if Harris concedes, which she probably would, Betfair would settle.
"This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress."
Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?
I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.
I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!
https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513
Up early is the best bet as you’re usually getting up right in the thick of it (but just prepare yourself for a good half an hour of serious reading and info crunching to get yourself up to speed).
And whatever you do, stick to US networks. Avoid UK coverage like the plague. It is consistently awful.
Scots are Trump’s biggest supporters in western Europe
The Republican presidential candidate is surprisingly popular in a nation usually considered to be more left-wing
Scots like Donald Trump more than other western Europeans do, a survey has revealed.
A quarter of adults living north of the border hope the controversial Republican nominee wins Tuesday’s US presidential election.
That is much higher than the meagre support of just 16 per cent in the UK as a whole and compared with just 17 per cent in Spain, 15 per cent in France, 14 per cent in Germany, 13 per cent in Sweden and 7 per cent in Denmark.
Scottish supporters even outnumber Italians, where there is a hard-right coalition government and 24 per cent of the population back Trump for the presidency.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scots-are-trumps-biggest-fans-in-western-europe-w6phd0h53
Also, the deterrent effect: he once said he'd rather be known as a fighter than a folder, because if people think you're a folder they come after you. I think that may have been the most revealing thing he ever said.
If Republicans who hate all this, hate Trump, hate MAGA, and have had enough of it, have been waiting for a moment to finish it all off, this is that perfect moment isn’t it you agree?
Like the end of Julius Caesar, only with invisible weapons, invisible assailants.
Nice clean quick job, raft over waterfall, end of story.
“It was fed back to us... that if we hadn’t done it at that time then it’s likely there would have been a level of disorder,” says Mr Naseem. “Things were on a knife edge”.
I suspect his diapers act as a buoyancy aid.
RFK has spoken eloquently about a healthcare industry that makes more money from people being sick, so that’s what they do, manage chronic sickness rather than try to make people well. He also wants to get the incessant pharma ads off TV, and look to European food standards rather than the garbage ultra-processed crap eaten by the majority of Americans.
So long as childhood vaccines continue to be regulated at the State rather than the Federal level, he’s actually got a lot of good ideas.
If they hadn’t done anything, he would have left for Parthia. Either the Parthians would have killed him, or he would have been too old to be much trouble after the years it would take to defeat them.
Either way, much more chance of the cozy oligarchy resuming rule in Rome.
Wouldn't it be ironic if Donald wins the election with postal votes sent last week, lol!
If Trump wins, he'll very likely have a Senate majority. Now he has a grant of immunity from the Supreme Court - and GOP Senators have already proven they're cowards...
The idea has surfaced at every election since, and hasn't worked at any of them.
This time it's different ?
They've all got it in for me!
Italians close behind, only 1% fewer back Trump than Scots do. Trump is likely to win the Italian American vote again as he did in 2020 and 2016 and of course Giuliani a big supporter. Lots of voters of Scottish heritage in the Midwest too who will be voting Trump
Unless, of course, there's been an epidemic of Toryism post-election in Scotland?
Remarkable acting from Allison Janney to keep a straight face.
It's also abundantly clear that if re-elected there won't be any cool heads or adults in the room to stop him this time.
Country club Republicans want tax cuts for the rich. Trump, not Harris, will deliver.
At the risk of invoking Godwin, plenty of well-heeled Germans who voted Zentrum, BPP, and DNVP, despised the Nazis, but they still preferred them to the Left.
Blackadder Severn more likely about putting down a revolt in South Wales?
In the EC though while Harris is still doing worse than Biden was polling in swing states in 2020 she is polling better than Hillary in some swing states, particularly in the Midwest helped by Walz and with white women over abortion. See her lead in Iowa over the weekend. She also is campaigning hard in them including in Wisconsin which she and Walz have been to several times but Hillary did not visit once in 2016. Trump meanwhile has been wandering all over the place, including having rallies in what should be safe Democrat California and New York and Virginia and New Mexico whereas in 2016 he was laser focused on rallies in swing state Michigan and Arizona and Pennsylvania etc
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-comes-out-against-34003649
PM announces extra £75m to tackle people smugglers
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy1n2nwnyjo
Still better than the previous shower though, of course.
We didn't keep in touch.
The other thing is that a GOP Senate may figure out looks good to vote down one of two things from a Trump White House as a performative gesture of independence, while cravenly falling into line on everything else, and certainly everything of importance to Trump.
It is the stuff of a banana republic.
General Jack D. Ripper : Fluoridation is the most monstrously conceived and dangerous communist plot we have ever had to face.
https://x.com/JPNelly/status/1852814606013718693
For his anti-vax positions alone, he should be laughed at, not listened to.
All PMs should recognise this, but they never do. They thing that because they won a FPTP election they are popular. They are not. They should govern with humility.
(Obviously, this applies even more in the last election to Starmer, before anyone feels the need to leap in)
Especially insane was charging with murder. Which requires a premeditated, unlawful act.
This was about using the legal system to “send messages to the community”.
I suspect they never imagined Biden would be replaced and never imagined that Biden would be so awful in that debate .
https://x.com/soncharm/status/1853070307386445854?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Of course he’s more likely to fail up, perhaps he can be the new Met Commissioner?
I'm sorry but could you read that sentence again and confirm that is what you think?
Nick Clegg's Lib Dems won more votes in 2010 than Rishi Sunak's Tories got in 2024.
I certainly doubt a president who exists on Big Macs is going to let RFK come after fast food industry.
Classic NU10K
Two possible ways that went wrong. One was that Team Trump doesn't do subtle and were always at risk of overreaching. The other was that Pres. Biden was, and is, a gent, who eventually walked. Trump would never do that.
There has to be some kind of award for the White House staffers who persuaded Biden to agree to a debate in June (??!) then managed to bait Trump into accepting it. Absolutely god tier politicsing.
Which may actually have been pragmatic, but is harsh on Sergeant Blake.
Could be important as some of the latest polls give a hung parliament with Labour needing LD support to stay in office.
Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrats’ rural affairs spokesman, said: “This claim just doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Rachel Reeves must be living in cloud cuckoo land. It just shows this Labour Government doesn’t understand rural communities. What we cannot afford is to drive farmers out of business and undermine the country’s food security.”
During the interview, Ms Reeves also defended the policy, which the Lib Dems have called a “tractor tax”, arguing that “only a very small number of agricultural properties will be affected”.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/03/reeves-we-cant-afford-farmers-to-die-tax-free/
https://www.tiktok.com/@whatchugotforme/video/6819061413877763334?lang=en
I doubt the conservative party really considers your views as you are not their target vote
As I said yesterday Kemi will seek to recover some votes from Reform and to attract the conservatives who either abstained or voted Labour at the GE
As has been said on Sky this morning Kemi is a straight talker and will upset her opponents, but straight talking is needed rather than gaining office by swearing no tax increases then imposing 40 billion of such increases as Reeves has just done
If you are agreeing with her then she is not doing her job
1. The car was still hemmed in, so wasn't about to mow down the shooting officer.
2. Firearms officers are expected to be in dangerous situations, and in almost every case, without shooting people.
Maybe a 20 year rule? You have to have lived on and farmed the land for twenty years before handing on. Stops the City slickers buying land to hold for a couple of years for tax reasons?
Some input from David Lammy on his attitude to slavery reparations.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgkpy4634go
Very clearly not engaging with the "Money. NOW." lobby.
But imo still not broad enough as an intended conversation.
The Tories in 1992 are the only party to have ever received more than 14 million votes at a UK GE, but even that record-setting level of popularity didn't last very long. Support always has to be won afresh.