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Popular mandates – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,183
edited November 10 in General
imagePopular mandates – politicalbetting.com

With the polls predicting a very close race we shouldn’t be surprised if the winner of the electoral college will be the candidate who finished second in the popular vote.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,939
    edited November 4
    First?

    These markets are still showing value in Harris.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,962
    Second like Trump. Hopefully
  • eekeek Posts: 28,444
    Well Trump getting the most votes while Harris wins the EC isn't that likely but a 2.5% chance seems reasonably likely.

    My problem is that if Trump wins the popular vote he's going to be complaining forever that he only lost because of dodgy voting elsewhere where things are close.

    So for may sanity I hope for a Harris win on both popular votes and in the Electoral College.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,083
    YouTube's algorithm seems to be showing me two or three Trump rallies a day for the past week or so. The Donald has not conceded yet, and my fear for bet settlement is that he might not concede until January.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,949

    YouTube's algorithm seems to be showing me two or three Trump rallies a day for the past week or so. The Donald has not conceded yet, and my fear for bet settlement is that he might not concede until January.

    There is zero chance he concedes, so don't fear it, just acknowledge that is the process.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,035

    YouTube's algorithm seems to be showing me two or three Trump rallies a day for the past week or so. The Donald has not conceded yet, and my fear for bet settlement is that he might not concede until January.

    He may never concede.

    He said yesterday he should never have left the Whitehouse in 2020
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,962
    eek said:

    Well Trump getting the most votes while Harris wins the EC isn't that likely but a 2.5% chance seems reasonably likely.

    My problem is that if Trump wins the popular vote he's going to be complaining forever that he only lost because of dodgy voting elsewhere where things are close.

    So for may sanity I hope for a Harris win on both popular votes and in the Electoral College.

    The guy cited and linked in the previous thread doesn't conclude his forecast in a happy voice:

    It will take a generation to undo the bureaucrats, judges, and decisions put in place over the last 8 to 16 years. And during that whole time, Theil, Musk, and Koch won't go quietly away. They will continue to attempt to push the United States into an oligarchy. We're more than halfway there as it is. If you're already exhausted, buckle up because this is, regrettably, our political future for decades to come.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    ...I think the value is with Harris losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college..

    Value loser, I think.
    (Though the odds are long enough for it to form part of a cheap hedging strategy.)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,083

    YouTube's algorithm seems to be showing me two or three Trump rallies a day for the past week or so. The Donald has not conceded yet, and my fear for bet settlement is that he might not concede until January.

    There is zero chance he concedes, so don't fear it, just acknowledge that is the process.
    The fear is that bets will not be settled until Trump concedes, so January rather than November the sixth.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,949

    YouTube's algorithm seems to be showing me two or three Trump rallies a day for the past week or so. The Donald has not conceded yet, and my fear for bet settlement is that he might not concede until January.

    There is zero chance he concedes, so don't fear it, just acknowledge that is the process.
    The fear is that bets will not be settled until Trump concedes, so January rather than November the sixth.
    Absolutely, betfair are not going to be able to settle Harris a winner until January. Trump can be settled beforehand if he wins. That is just the process.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,706
    Is htere such a thing as an unpopular mandate?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522

    YouTube's algorithm seems to be showing me two or three Trump rallies a day for the past week or so. The Donald has not conceded yet, and my fear for bet settlement is that he might not concede until January.

    There is zero chance he concedes, so don't fear it, just acknowledge that is the process.
    The fear is that bets will not be settled until Trump concedes, so January rather than November the sixth.
    Absolutely, betfair are not going to be able to settle Harris a winner until January. Trump can be settled beforehand if he wins. That is just the process.
    Only if it's close.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Mark, " Is there such a thing as an unpopular mandate?"

    Yes, see the PB entry under 'Keir Starmer'.
  • Is htere such a thing as an unpopular mandate?

    Yes.

    Bush 2000 and Trump 2016.

    Starmer 2024, ahem.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,949
    Nigelb said:

    YouTube's algorithm seems to be showing me two or three Trump rallies a day for the past week or so. The Donald has not conceded yet, and my fear for bet settlement is that he might not concede until January.

    There is zero chance he concedes, so don't fear it, just acknowledge that is the process.
    The fear is that bets will not be settled until Trump concedes, so January rather than November the sixth.
    Absolutely, betfair are not going to be able to settle Harris a winner until January. Trump can be settled beforehand if he wins. That is just the process.
    Only if it's close.
    Harris could win by 6% and 100 EV and if Trump doesnt concede, which he won't, Betfair won't settle.
    Trump could lose the popular vote, win 270-268 and if Harris concedes, which she probably would, Betfair would settle.

    "This market will be settled once both the projected winner is announced by the Associated Press and the losing candidate concedes. If the losing candidate does not concede, or if there is any uncertainty around the result (for instance, caused by recounts and/or potential legal challenges), then the market will be settled on the winner decided by Congress, on the date on which the Electoral College votes are counted in a joint session of Congress."
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    i expect Trump to win Iowa by a reduced margin from 2020 . Even Dems are highly sceptical that Harris has a chance there but what Selzer found re older white women also shows up in a recent Kansas poll that had Trump ahead by only 5 points when he won by 15 in 2020.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,849
    One thing Im definitely not doing on election night this year is staying up late. If you’re following on UK time I find you’re getting incessant talking, lots of exit poll waffle, and often very confused or incorrect info. There’s betting opportunities to be had I suppose, but I am steering clear this year.

    Up early is the best bet as you’re usually getting up right in the thick of it (but just prepare yourself for a good half an hour of serious reading and info crunching to get yourself up to speed).

    And whatever you do, stick to US networks. Avoid UK coverage like the plague. It is consistently awful.
  • Further proof that the Scots shouldn't be allowed to be independent.

    Scots are Trump’s biggest supporters in western Europe

    The Republican presidential candidate is surprisingly popular in a nation usually considered to be more left-wing


    Scots like Donald Trump more than other western Europeans do, a survey has revealed.

    A quarter of adults living north of the border hope the controversial Republican nominee wins Tuesday’s US presidential election.

    That is much higher than the meagre support of just 16 per cent in the UK as a whole and compared with just 17 per cent in Spain, 15 per cent in France, 14 per cent in Germany, 13 per cent in Sweden and 7 per cent in Denmark.

    Scottish supporters even outnumber Italians, where there is a hard-right coalition government and 24 per cent of the population back Trump for the presidency.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scots-are-trumps-biggest-fans-in-western-europe-w6phd0h53
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,083
    edited November 4
    Scott_xP said:

    YouTube's algorithm seems to be showing me two or three Trump rallies a day for the past week or so. The Donald has not conceded yet, and my fear for bet settlement is that he might not concede until January.

    He may never concede.

    He said yesterday he should never have left the Whitehouse in 2020
    Yes he doesn't do concessions, for two reasons. He is a caricature of a narcissist, so every one of life's setbacks must be due to somebody else, never that he lost fair and square.

    Also, the deterrent effect: he once said he'd rather be known as a fighter than a folder, because if people think you're a folder they come after you. I think that may have been the most revealing thing he ever said.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Nigelb said:

    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513

    Generally I'm not a fan of "assume the system will stop Trump from doing this crazy thing he says because it's too nuts" reasoning. But on putting RFK Jr in charge of public healthcare it's not like Trump cares about any of this stuff. Doesn't he just announce the appointment and send his name to the Senate and then the Senate says "It's a no from me"?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,578
    Sean_F said:

    Relying upon “snorkelling” Republicans for Harris is a very thin straw to be clutching.

    Politics isn’t a raft you can ride for ever. Rafting is time limited. At some point the daft MAGA raft is going over the waterfall. It was always a raft only held together by fake economics, disruption not building, lying, bullying, a small and weak political coalition.

    If Republicans who hate all this, hate Trump, hate MAGA, and have had enough of it, have been waiting for a moment to finish it all off, this is that perfect moment isn’t it you agree?

    Like the end of Julius Caesar, only with invisible weapons, invisible assailants.

    Nice clean quick job, raft over waterfall, end of story.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Sean_F said:

    Relying upon “snorkelling” Republicans for Harris is a very thin straw to be clutching.

    Politics isn’t a raft you can ride for ever. Rafting is time limited. At some point the daft MAGA raft is going over the waterfall. It was always a raft only held together by fake economics, disruption not building, lying, bullying, a small and weak political coalition.

    If Republicans who hate all this, hate Trump, hate MAGA, and have had enough of it, have been waiting for a moment to finish it all off, this is that perfect moment isn’t it you agree?

    Like the end of Julius Caesar, only with invisible weapons, invisible assailants.

    Nice clean quick job, raft over waterfall, end of story.
    It's the perfect moment but then they've had quite a few perfect moments before...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,083
    Nigelb said:

    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513

    The three branches of "our" NHS: GPs, hospitals, and public health. The latter disgracefully palmed off onto local authorities by Lansley, before we sneer too much at our trans-Atlantic cousins.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522

    Further proof that the Scots shouldn't be allowed to be independent.

    Scots are Trump’s biggest supporters in western Europe

    The Republican presidential candidate is surprisingly popular in a nation usually considered to be more left-wing


    Scots like Donald Trump more than other western Europeans do, a survey has revealed.

    A quarter of adults living north of the border hope the controversial Republican nominee wins Tuesday’s US presidential election.

    That is much higher than the meagre support of just 16 per cent in the UK as a whole and compared with just 17 per cent in Spain, 15 per cent in France, 14 per cent in Germany, 13 per cent in Sweden and 7 per cent in Denmark.

    Scottish supporters even outnumber Italians, where there is a hard-right coalition government and 24 per cent of the population back Trump for the presidency.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scots-are-trumps-biggest-fans-in-western-europe-w6phd0h53

    You've been watching Season 2 of The Diplomat, haven't you ?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,576
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6245454rj3o

    “It was fed back to us... that if we hadn’t done it at that time then it’s likely there would have been a level of disorder,” says Mr Naseem. “Things were on a knife edge”.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,505

    Sean_F said:

    Relying upon “snorkelling” Republicans for Harris is a very thin straw to be clutching.

    Politics isn’t a raft you can ride for ever. Rafting is time limited. At some point the daft MAGA raft is going over the waterfall. It was always a raft only held together by fake economics, disruption not building, lying, bullying, a small and weak political coalition.

    If Republicans who hate all this, hate Trump, hate MAGA, and have had enough of it, have been waiting for a moment to finish it all off, this is that perfect moment isn’t it you agree?

    Like the end of Julius Caesar, only with invisible weapons, invisible assailants.

    Nice clean quick job, raft over waterfall, end of story.
    Like in 2020 also when he went clean over the waterfall and survived.

    I suspect his diapers act as a buoyancy aid.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656

    Nigelb said:

    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513

    The three branches of "our" NHS: GPs, hospitals, and public health. The latter disgracefully palmed off onto local authorities by Lansley, before we sneer too much at our trans-Atlantic cousins.
    The US has a massive obesity problem, and their public heath is almost non-existent except for those with the top insurance plans.

    RFK has spoken eloquently about a healthcare industry that makes more money from people being sick, so that’s what they do, manage chronic sickness rather than try to make people well. He also wants to get the incessant pharma ads off TV, and look to European food standards rather than the garbage ultra-processed crap eaten by the majority of Americans.

    So long as childhood vaccines continue to be regulated at the State rather than the Federal level, he’s actually got a lot of good ideas.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,576

    Sean_F said:

    Relying upon “snorkelling” Republicans for Harris is a very thin straw to be clutching.

    Politics isn’t a raft you can ride for ever. Rafting is time limited. At some point the daft MAGA raft is going over the waterfall. It was always a raft only held together by fake economics, disruption not building, lying, bullying, a small and weak political coalition.

    If Republicans who hate all this, hate Trump, hate MAGA, and have had enough of it, have been waiting for a moment to finish it all off, this is that perfect moment isn’t it you agree?

    Like the end of Julius Caesar, only with invisible weapons, invisible assailants.

    Nice clean quick job, raft over waterfall, end of story.
    The more you read of what happened to Julie’s Caesar, the more you realise it was a chaotic fuckup by idiots.

    If they hadn’t done anything, he would have left for Parthia. Either the Parthians would have killed him, or he would have been too old to be much trouble after the years it would take to defeat them.

    Either way, much more chance of the cozy oligarchy resuming rule in Rome.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,806

    Further proof that the Scots shouldn't be allowed to be independent.

    Scots are Trump’s biggest supporters in western Europe

    The Republican presidential candidate is surprisingly popular in a nation usually considered to be more left-wing


    Scots like Donald Trump more than other western Europeans do, a survey has revealed.

    A quarter of adults living north of the border hope the controversial Republican nominee wins Tuesday’s US presidential election.

    That is much higher than the meagre support of just 16 per cent in the UK as a whole and compared with just 17 per cent in Spain, 15 per cent in France, 14 per cent in Germany, 13 per cent in Sweden and 7 per cent in Denmark.

    Scottish supporters even outnumber Italians, where there is a hard-right coalition government and 24 per cent of the population back Trump for the presidency.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scots-are-trumps-biggest-fans-in-western-europe-w6phd0h53

    They've been reading PB and know little about him other than that he's described as an Ayrshire Hotelier? :wink:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    edited November 4
    Interesting that Kamala is getting a late tick up.

    Wouldn't it be ironic if Donald wins the election with postal votes sent last week, lol!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522

    Nigelb said:

    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513

    Generally I'm not a fan of "assume the system will stop Trump from doing this crazy thing he says because it's too nuts" reasoning. But on putting RFK Jr in charge of public healthcare it's not like Trump cares about any of this stuff. Doesn't he just announce the appointment and send his name to the Senate and then the Senate says "It's a no from me"?
    Just like they voted to impeach him ?

    If Trump wins, he'll very likely have a Senate majority. Now he has a grant of immunity from the Supreme Court - and GOP Senators have already proven they're cowards...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,032

    Further proof that the Scots shouldn't be allowed to be independent.

    Scots are Trump’s biggest supporters in western Europe

    The Republican presidential candidate is surprisingly popular in a nation usually considered to be more left-wing


    Scots like Donald Trump more than other western Europeans do, a survey has revealed.

    A quarter of adults living north of the border hope the controversial Republican nominee wins Tuesday’s US presidential election.

    That is much higher than the meagre support of just 16 per cent in the UK as a whole and compared with just 17 per cent in Spain, 15 per cent in France, 14 per cent in Germany, 13 per cent in Sweden and 7 per cent in Denmark.

    Scottish supporters even outnumber Italians, where there is a hard-right coalition government and 24 per cent of the population back Trump for the presidency.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scots-are-trumps-biggest-fans-in-western-europe-w6phd0h53

    Yet another southron fails to understand the Scottish sense of deadpan humour.
  • Nigelb said:

    Further proof that the Scots shouldn't be allowed to be independent.

    Scots are Trump’s biggest supporters in western Europe

    The Republican presidential candidate is surprisingly popular in a nation usually considered to be more left-wing


    Scots like Donald Trump more than other western Europeans do, a survey has revealed.

    A quarter of adults living north of the border hope the controversial Republican nominee wins Tuesday’s US presidential election.

    That is much higher than the meagre support of just 16 per cent in the UK as a whole and compared with just 17 per cent in Spain, 15 per cent in France, 14 per cent in Germany, 13 per cent in Sweden and 7 per cent in Denmark.

    Scottish supporters even outnumber Italians, where there is a hard-right coalition government and 24 per cent of the population back Trump for the presidency.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scots-are-trumps-biggest-fans-in-western-europe-w6phd0h53

    You've been watching Season 2 of The Diplomat, haven't you ?
    Ya.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,032
    Selebian said:

    Further proof that the Scots shouldn't be allowed to be independent.

    Scots are Trump’s biggest supporters in western Europe

    The Republican presidential candidate is surprisingly popular in a nation usually considered to be more left-wing


    Scots like Donald Trump more than other western Europeans do, a survey has revealed.

    A quarter of adults living north of the border hope the controversial Republican nominee wins Tuesday’s US presidential election.

    That is much higher than the meagre support of just 16 per cent in the UK as a whole and compared with just 17 per cent in Spain, 15 per cent in France, 14 per cent in Germany, 13 per cent in Sweden and 7 per cent in Denmark.

    Scottish supporters even outnumber Italians, where there is a hard-right coalition government and 24 per cent of the population back Trump for the presidency.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scots-are-trumps-biggest-fans-in-western-europe-w6phd0h53

    They've been reading PB and know little about him other than that he's described as an Ayrshire Hotelier? :wink:
    Nah, that's the ScoTories for you.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522

    Sean_F said:

    Relying upon “snorkelling” Republicans for Harris is a very thin straw to be clutching.

    Politics isn’t a raft you can ride for ever. Rafting is time limited. At some point the daft MAGA raft is going over the waterfall. It was always a raft only held together by fake economics, disruption not building, lying, bullying, a small and weak political coalition.

    If Republicans who hate all this, hate Trump, hate MAGA, and have had enough of it, have been waiting for a moment to finish it all off, this is that perfect moment isn’t it you agree?

    Like the end of Julius Caesar, only with invisible weapons, invisible assailants.

    Nice clean quick job, raft over waterfall, end of story.
    It's the perfect moment but then they've had quite a few perfect moments before...
    This goes all the way back to Obama's first term, when one of his campaign themes was forcing the GOP to become more sensible by defeating them.
    The idea has surfaced at every election since, and hasn't worked at any of them.

    This time it's different ?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,444
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513

    The three branches of "our" NHS: GPs, hospitals, and public health. The latter disgracefully palmed off onto local authorities by Lansley, before we sneer too much at our trans-Atlantic cousins.
    The US has a massive obesity problem, and their public heath is almost non-existent except for those with the top insurance plans.

    RFK has spoken eloquently about a healthcare industry that makes more money from people being sick, so that’s what they do, manage chronic sickness rather than try to make people well. He also wants to get the incessant pharma ads off TV, and look to European food standards rather than the garbage ultra-processed crap eaten by the majority of Americans.

    So long as childhood vaccines continue to be regulated at the State rather than the Federal level, he’s actually got a lot of good ideas.
    He wants fluoride removed from water - where all evidence says it's a good addition vastly reducing dental issues.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,822

    Sean_F said:

    Relying upon “snorkelling” Republicans for Harris is a very thin straw to be clutching.

    Politics isn’t a raft you can ride for ever. Rafting is time limited. At some point the daft MAGA raft is going over the waterfall. It was always a raft only held together by fake economics, disruption not building, lying, bullying, a small and weak political coalition.

    If Republicans who hate all this, hate Trump, hate MAGA, and have had enough of it, have been waiting for a moment to finish it all off, this is that perfect moment isn’t it you agree?

    Like the end of Julius Caesar, only with invisible weapons, invisible assailants.

    Nice clean quick job, raft over waterfall, end of story.
    Infamy! Infamy!
    They've all got it in for me!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401

    Further proof that the Scots shouldn't be allowed to be independent.

    Scots are Trump’s biggest supporters in western Europe

    The Republican presidential candidate is surprisingly popular in a nation usually considered to be more left-wing


    Scots like Donald Trump more than other western Europeans do, a survey has revealed.

    A quarter of adults living north of the border hope the controversial Republican nominee wins Tuesday’s US presidential election.

    That is much higher than the meagre support of just 16 per cent in the UK as a whole and compared with just 17 per cent in Spain, 15 per cent in France, 14 per cent in Germany, 13 per cent in Sweden and 7 per cent in Denmark.

    Scottish supporters even outnumber Italians, where there is a hard-right coalition government and 24 per cent of the population back Trump for the presidency.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scots-are-trumps-biggest-fans-in-western-europe-w6phd0h53

    Well Trump's mother was Scottish and he was at one time big mates with and golfing partner of Salmond so not a major surprise.

    Italians close behind, only 1% fewer back Trump than Scots do. Trump is likely to win the Italian American vote again as he did in 2020 and 2016 and of course Giuliani a big supporter. Lots of voters of Scottish heritage in the Midwest too who will be voting Trump
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,806
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    Further proof that the Scots shouldn't be allowed to be independent.

    Scots are Trump’s biggest supporters in western Europe

    The Republican presidential candidate is surprisingly popular in a nation usually considered to be more left-wing


    Scots like Donald Trump more than other western Europeans do, a survey has revealed.

    A quarter of adults living north of the border hope the controversial Republican nominee wins Tuesday’s US presidential election.

    That is much higher than the meagre support of just 16 per cent in the UK as a whole and compared with just 17 per cent in Spain, 15 per cent in France, 14 per cent in Germany, 13 per cent in Sweden and 7 per cent in Denmark.

    Scottish supporters even outnumber Italians, where there is a hard-right coalition government and 24 per cent of the population back Trump for the presidency.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scots-are-trumps-biggest-fans-in-western-europe-w6phd0h53

    They've been reading PB and know little about him other than that he's described as an Ayrshire Hotelier? :wink:
    Nah, that's the ScoTories for you.
    No, that doesn't wash. The Tory voters were only 12.7% of the populuation at the last count!

    Unless, of course, there's been an epidemic of Toryism post-election in Scotland?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited November 4
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513

    Generally I'm not a fan of "assume the system will stop Trump from doing this crazy thing he says because it's too nuts" reasoning. But on putting RFK Jr in charge of public healthcare it's not like Trump cares about any of this stuff. Doesn't he just announce the appointment and send his name to the Senate and then the Senate says "It's a no from me"?
    Just like they voted to impeach him ?

    If Trump wins, he'll very likely have a Senate majority. Now he has a grant of immunity from the Supreme Court - and GOP Senators have already proven they're cowards...
    I mean Trump could bully them into approving him if he wants to but does he want to? It's not like he cares about any of that shit, he's only doing it because they made a deal and we know how Trump feels about keeping his promises. He knows Americans don't want some lunatic running around trying to stop them eating doritos.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    edited November 4

    Nigelb said:

    Further proof that the Scots shouldn't be allowed to be independent.

    Scots are Trump’s biggest supporters in western Europe

    The Republican presidential candidate is surprisingly popular in a nation usually considered to be more left-wing


    Scots like Donald Trump more than other western Europeans do, a survey has revealed.

    A quarter of adults living north of the border hope the controversial Republican nominee wins Tuesday’s US presidential election.

    That is much higher than the meagre support of just 16 per cent in the UK as a whole and compared with just 17 per cent in Spain, 15 per cent in France, 14 per cent in Germany, 13 per cent in Sweden and 7 per cent in Denmark.

    Scottish supporters even outnumber Italians, where there is a hard-right coalition government and 24 per cent of the population back Trump for the presidency.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scots-are-trumps-biggest-fans-in-western-europe-w6phd0h53

    You've been watching Season 2 of The Diplomat, haven't you ?
    Ya.
    The plan to foil Scottish independence was like something Baldric might come up with in Blackadder series 7.

    Remarkable acting from Allison Janney to keep a straight face.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,083
    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Kamala is getting a late tick up.

    Wouldn't it be ironic if Donald wins the election with postal votes sent last week, lol!

    I think Trump was encouraging early voting this time round.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,565
    I am one of the pb'ers who've had that nibble at higher odds.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,690
    Yvette Cooper sounded like she had given up on R4 Today this morning, hardly bothered to repeat the tired old tropes on small boats, did it very badly and sounds as if there is little to offer.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,920
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513

    Generally I'm not a fan of "assume the system will stop Trump from doing this crazy thing he says because it's too nuts" reasoning. But on putting RFK Jr in charge of public healthcare it's not like Trump cares about any of this stuff. Doesn't he just announce the appointment and send his name to the Senate and then the Senate says "It's a no from me"?
    Just like they voted to impeach him ?

    If Trump wins, he'll very likely have a Senate majority. Now he has a grant of immunity from the Supreme Court - and GOP Senators have already proven they're cowards...
    So far despite it being 2024 and there being numerous reasons for punishing him Trump hasn't yet faced any punishment. He's had a conviction and that's it. Anyone relying on the system to stop Trump doing any of the numerous mad things he has talked about is nearly as big a fool as Trump himself.

    It's also abundantly clear that if re-elected there won't be any cool heads or adults in the room to stop him this time.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,415

    Sean_F said:

    Relying upon “snorkelling” Republicans for Harris is a very thin straw to be clutching.

    Politics isn’t a raft you can ride for ever. Rafting is time limited. At some point the daft MAGA raft is going over the waterfall. It was always a raft only held together by fake economics, disruption not building, lying, bullying, a small and weak political coalition.

    If Republicans who hate all this, hate Trump, hate MAGA, and have had enough of it, have been waiting for a moment to finish it all off, this is that perfect moment isn’t it you agree?

    Like the end of Julius Caesar, only with invisible weapons, invisible assailants.

    Nice clean quick job, raft over waterfall, end of story.
    You’re assuming they hate him more than they hate their Democratic opponents. Sure, they may despise Trump, but they also hate price rises, sanctuary cities, BLM, defunding the police, trans self-I/D, and plenty of other things they associate with their opponents.

    Country club Republicans want tax cuts for the rich. Trump, not Harris, will deliver.

    At the risk of invoking Godwin, plenty of well-heeled Germans who voted Zentrum, BPP, and DNVP, despised the Nazis, but they still preferred them to the Left.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,806
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Further proof that the Scots shouldn't be allowed to be independent.

    Scots are Trump’s biggest supporters in western Europe

    The Republican presidential candidate is surprisingly popular in a nation usually considered to be more left-wing


    Scots like Donald Trump more than other western Europeans do, a survey has revealed.

    A quarter of adults living north of the border hope the controversial Republican nominee wins Tuesday’s US presidential election.

    That is much higher than the meagre support of just 16 per cent in the UK as a whole and compared with just 17 per cent in Spain, 15 per cent in France, 14 per cent in Germany, 13 per cent in Sweden and 7 per cent in Denmark.

    Scottish supporters even outnumber Italians, where there is a hard-right coalition government and 24 per cent of the population back Trump for the presidency.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scots-are-trumps-biggest-fans-in-western-europe-w6phd0h53

    You've been watching Season 2 of The Diplomat, haven't you ?
    Ya.
    The plan to foil Scottish independence was like something Baldric might come up with in Blackadder series 7.
    Should have been In Blackadder goes Forth.

    Blackadder Severn more likely about putting down a revolt in South Wales?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    edited November 4
    I agree with TSE, the value is with Harris to win the EC but Trump the popular vote. The evidence is nationally it is closer than it was in 2016 or 2020 with a few polls even having Trump ahead in the popular vote and making gains with Latinos and Black men.

    In the EC though while Harris is still doing worse than Biden was polling in swing states in 2020 she is polling better than Hillary in some swing states, particularly in the Midwest helped by Walz and with white women over abortion. See her lead in Iowa over the weekend. She also is campaigning hard in them including in Wisconsin which she and Walz have been to several times but Hillary did not visit once in 2016. Trump meanwhile has been wandering all over the place, including having rallies in what should be safe Democrat California and New York and Virginia and New Mexico whereas in 2016 he was laser focused on rallies in swing state Michigan and Arizona and Pennsylvania etc
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Kamala is getting a late tick up.

    Wouldn't it be ironic if Donald wins the election with postal votes sent last week, lol!

    But polling upticks are lagging indicators so any votes being posted last week would be heading more her way surely?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,053

    Further proof that the Scots shouldn't be allowed to be independent.

    Scots are Trump’s biggest supporters in western Europe

    The Republican presidential candidate is surprisingly popular in a nation usually considered to be more left-wing


    Scots like Donald Trump more than other western Europeans do, a survey has revealed.

    A quarter of adults living north of the border hope the controversial Republican nominee wins Tuesday’s US presidential election.

    That is much higher than the meagre support of just 16 per cent in the UK as a whole and compared with just 17 per cent in Spain, 15 per cent in France, 14 per cent in Germany, 13 per cent in Sweden and 7 per cent in Denmark.

    Scottish supporters even outnumber Italians, where there is a hard-right coalition government and 24 per cent of the population back Trump for the presidency.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/scots-are-trumps-biggest-fans-in-western-europe-w6phd0h53

    Scottish Unionists are a weird bunch for sure, they’d go with anyone for a pat on the head (or other parts of the anatomy if Trump is involved).

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-comes-out-against-34003649
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,083
    edited November 4
    algarkirk said:

    Yvette Cooper sounded like she had given up on R4 Today this morning, hardly bothered to repeat the tired old tropes on small boats, did it very badly and sounds as if there is little to offer.

    More likely annoyed at Starmer hogging the limelight:-

    PM announces extra £75m to tackle people smugglers
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy1n2nwnyjo
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,478
    algarkirk said:

    Yvette Cooper sounded like she had given up on R4 Today this morning, hardly bothered to repeat the tired old tropes on small boats, did it very badly and sounds as if there is little to offer.

    I must say I am disappointed by the lack of spark, drive, and enthusiasm from this Labour government. I expected them to grab the bull by both horns but they haven’t.

    Still better than the previous shower though, of course.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513

    The three branches of "our" NHS: GPs, hospitals, and public health. The latter disgracefully palmed off onto local authorities by Lansley, before we sneer too much at our trans-Atlantic cousins.
    The US has a massive obesity problem, and their public heath is almost non-existent except for those with the top insurance plans.

    RFK has spoken eloquently about a healthcare industry that makes more money from people being sick, so that’s what they do, manage chronic sickness rather than try to make people well. He also wants to get the incessant pharma ads off TV, and look to European food standards rather than the garbage ultra-processed crap eaten by the majority of Americans.

    So long as childhood vaccines continue to be regulated at the State rather than the Federal level, he’s actually got a lot of good ideas.
    He wants fluoride removed from water - where all evidence says it's a good addition vastly reducing dental issues.
    The GOP has actually run the 'experiment' in several US towns in recent years; the effect on childhood dental problems has been pretty dramatic.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,505

    GIN1138 said:

    Interesting that Kamala is getting a late tick up.

    Wouldn't it be ironic if Donald wins the election with postal votes sent last week, lol!

    I think Trump was encouraging early voting this time round.
    Vote early, vote often.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,632

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513

    Generally I'm not a fan of "assume the system will stop Trump from doing this crazy thing he says because it's too nuts" reasoning. But on putting RFK Jr in charge of public healthcare it's not like Trump cares about any of this stuff. Doesn't he just announce the appointment and send his name to the Senate and then the Senate says "It's a no from me"?
    Just like they voted to impeach him ?

    If Trump wins, he'll very likely have a Senate majority. Now he has a grant of immunity from the Supreme Court - and GOP Senators have already proven they're cowards...
    I mean Trump could bully them into approving him if he wants to but does he want to? It's not like he cares about any of that shit, he's only doing it because they made a deal and we know how Trump feels about keeping his promises. He knows Americans don't want some lunatic running around trying to stop them eating doritos.
    A lot would depend on the margin of a GOP Senate majority. If they have 51 or 52 Senators then it only takes 2 or 3 to vote something down. But that gets harder the larger the majority is.

    The other thing is that a GOP Senate may figure out looks good to vote down one of two things from a Trump White House as a performative gesture of independence, while cravenly falling into line on everything else, and certainly everything of importance to Trump.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,083
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Relying upon “snorkelling” Republicans for Harris is a very thin straw to be clutching.

    Politics isn’t a raft you can ride for ever. Rafting is time limited. At some point the daft MAGA raft is going over the waterfall. It was always a raft only held together by fake economics, disruption not building, lying, bullying, a small and weak political coalition.

    If Republicans who hate all this, hate Trump, hate MAGA, and have had enough of it, have been waiting for a moment to finish it all off, this is that perfect moment isn’t it you agree?

    Like the end of Julius Caesar, only with invisible weapons, invisible assailants.

    Nice clean quick job, raft over waterfall, end of story.
    You’re assuming they hate him more than they hate their Democratic opponents. Sure, they may despise Trump, but they also hate price rises, sanctuary cities, BLM, defunding the police, trans self-I/D, and plenty of other things they associate with their opponents.

    Country club Republicans want tax cuts for the rich. Trump, not Harris, will deliver.

    At the risk of invoking Godwin, plenty of well-heeled Germans who voted Zentrum, BPP, and DNVP, despised the Nazis, but they still preferred them to the Left.
    And (perhaps again like the Germans) the GOP grandees believe they can control Trump. They may be right. Last time round Trump delivered tax cuts for the rich and stacked the Supreme Court. Trump's personal causes, China and Mexico, are where he slipped up.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,690

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6245454rj3o

    “It was fed back to us... that if we hadn’t done it at that time then it’s likely there would have been a level of disorder,” says Mr Naseem. “Things were on a knife edge”.

    That quote is in relation to a decision to open a homicide investigation - a decision which led in the end to Blake being charged with murder.

    It is the stuff of a banana republic.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,576
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513

    The three branches of "our" NHS: GPs, hospitals, and public health. The latter disgracefully palmed off onto local authorities by Lansley, before we sneer too much at our trans-Atlantic cousins.
    The US has a massive obesity problem, and their public heath is almost non-existent except for those with the top insurance plans.

    RFK has spoken eloquently about a healthcare industry that makes more money from people being sick, so that’s what they do, manage chronic sickness rather than try to make people well. He also wants to get the incessant pharma ads off TV, and look to European food standards rather than the garbage ultra-processed crap eaten by the majority of Americans.

    So long as childhood vaccines continue to be regulated at the State rather than the Federal level, he’s actually got a lot of good ideas.
    He wants fluoride removed from water - where all evidence says it's a good addition vastly reducing dental issues.

    General Jack D. Ripper : Fluoridation is the most monstrously conceived and dangerous communist plot we have ever had to face.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,522
    A GOP meme which is surprisingly honest.
    https://x.com/JPNelly/status/1852814606013718693
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513

    The three branches of "our" NHS: GPs, hospitals, and public health. The latter disgracefully palmed off onto local authorities by Lansley, before we sneer too much at our trans-Atlantic cousins.
    The US has a massive obesity problem, and their public heath is almost non-existent except for those with the top insurance plans.

    RFK has spoken eloquently about a healthcare industry that makes more money from people being sick, so that’s what they do, manage chronic sickness rather than try to make people well. He also wants to get the incessant pharma ads off TV, and look to European food standards rather than the garbage ultra-processed crap eaten by the majority of Americans.

    So long as childhood vaccines continue to be regulated at the State rather than the Federal level, he’s actually got a lot of good ideas.
    RFK may speak eloquently (I disagree...), but his prescriptions are evil.

    For his anti-vax positions alone, he should be laughed at, not listened to.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    edited November 4

    Is htere such a thing as an unpopular mandate?

    Yes.

    Bush 2000 and Trump 2016.

    Starmer 2024, ahem.
    And Trudeau 2021 or Ardern 2017 or Blair 2005
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,685
    edited November 4
    HYUFD said:

    Is htere such a thing as an unpopular mandate?

    Yes.

    Bush 2000 and Trump 2016.

    Starmer 2024, ahem.
    And Trudeau 2021 or Ardern 2017 or Blair 2005
    In my view, no government in the UK has been genuinely popular. The best you can do is get around 40% of the vote on an 80% turnout, which means that about twice as many people that voted for you, either voted against you or couldn't be bothered.

    All PMs should recognise this, but they never do. They thing that because they won a FPTP election they are popular. They are not. They should govern with humility.

    (Obviously, this applies even more in the last election to Starmer, before anyone feels the need to leap in)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,576
    algarkirk said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6245454rj3o

    “It was fed back to us... that if we hadn’t done it at that time then it’s likely there would have been a level of disorder,” says Mr Naseem. “Things were on a knife edge”.

    That quote is in relation to a decision to open a homicide investigation - a decision which led in the end to Blake being charged with murder.

    It is the stuff of a banana republic.
    Yes

    Especially insane was charging with murder. Which requires a premeditated, unlawful act.

    This was about using the legal system to “send messages to the community”.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,194
    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:

    YouTube's algorithm seems to be showing me two or three Trump rallies a day for the past week or so. The Donald has not conceded yet, and my fear for bet settlement is that he might not concede until January.

    He may never concede.

    He said yesterday he should never have left the Whitehouse in 2020
    Yes he doesn't do concessions, for two reasons. He is a caricature of a narcissist, so every one of life's setbacks must be due to somebody else, never that he lost fair and square.

    Also, the deterrent effect: he once said he'd rather be known as a fighter than a folder, because if people think you're a folder they come after you. I think that may have been the most revealing thing he ever said.
    Well, it depends. He's chosen to settle, rather than fight, an awful lot of court cases for a "fighter"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,900
    I'm on this bet and still value at 35 I think.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,971
    algarkirk said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6245454rj3o

    “It was fed back to us... that if we hadn’t done it at that time then it’s likely there would have been a level of disorder,” says Mr Naseem. “Things were on a knife edge”.

    That quote is in relation to a decision to open a homicide investigation - a decision which led in the end to Blake being charged with murder.

    It is the stuff of a banana republic.
    It is quit a starling admission, and one that will just cause many other problems further down the line.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,900
    kamski said:

    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:

    YouTube's algorithm seems to be showing me two or three Trump rallies a day for the past week or so. The Donald has not conceded yet, and my fear for bet settlement is that he might not concede until January.

    He may never concede.

    He said yesterday he should never have left the Whitehouse in 2020
    Yes he doesn't do concessions, for two reasons. He is a caricature of a narcissist, so every one of life's setbacks must be due to somebody else, never that he lost fair and square.

    Also, the deterrent effect: he once said he'd rather be known as a fighter than a folder, because if people think you're a folder they come after you. I think that may have been the most revealing thing he ever said.
    Well, it depends. He's chosen to settle, rather than fight, an awful lot of court cases for a "fighter"
    The bet is settled by BF if either there is concession or Congress has to choose who wins.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    If Harris does win then the decision by the Trump team to agree to that early debate with Biden in June will be seen as the event that changed the course of history .

    I suspect they never imagined Biden would be replaced and never imagined that Biden would be so awful in that debate .
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,053
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513

    The three branches of "our" NHS: GPs, hospitals, and public health. The latter disgracefully palmed off onto local authorities by Lansley, before we sneer too much at our trans-Atlantic cousins.
    The US has a massive obesity problem, and their public heath is almost non-existent except for those with the top insurance plans.

    RFK has spoken eloquently about a healthcare industry that makes more money from people being sick, so that’s what they do, manage chronic sickness rather than try to make people well. He also wants to get the incessant pharma ads off TV, and look to European food standards rather than the garbage ultra-processed crap eaten by the majority of Americans.

    So long as childhood vaccines continue to be regulated at the State rather than the Federal level, he’s actually got a lot of good ideas.
    He wants fluoride removed from water - where all evidence says it's a good addition vastly reducing dental issues.
    There’s a Trumper I sort of accidentally follow on Twitter (I think originally I thought he was a superb parody). He believes that since most of us are not scientists and healthcare experts, we only ‘know’ that fluoride, vaxxes etc are good because we have been socialised into believing they are. In that context RFKism and ingesting bleach are just as valid as any other health approaches.

    https://x.com/soncharm/status/1853070307386445854?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,194
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513

    The three branches of "our" NHS: GPs, hospitals, and public health. The latter disgracefully palmed off onto local authorities by Lansley, before we sneer too much at our trans-Atlantic cousins.
    The US has a massive obesity problem, and their public heath is almost non-existent except for those with the top insurance plans.

    RFK has spoken eloquently about a healthcare industry that makes more money from people being sick, so that’s what they do, manage chronic sickness rather than try to make people well. He also wants to get the incessant pharma ads off TV, and look to European food standards rather than the garbage ultra-processed crap eaten by the majority of Americans.

    So long as childhood vaccines continue to be regulated at the State rather than the Federal level, he’s actually got a lot of good ideas.
    Not really. He himself is a nasty chancer who is full of shit. Those are not his original ideas. And are unlikely to be be carried out by Republicans whatever grubby deal Kennedy thinks he's made.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,656

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6245454rj3o

    “It was fed back to us... that if we hadn’t done it at that time then it’s likely there would have been a level of disorder,” says Mr Naseem. “Things were on a knife edge”.

    He should be walking the plank for that comment.

    Of course he’s more likely to fail up, perhaps he can be the new Met Commissioner?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,444
    edited November 4

    algarkirk said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6245454rj3o

    “It was fed back to us... that if we hadn’t done it at that time then it’s likely there would have been a level of disorder,” says Mr Naseem. “Things were on a knife edge”.

    That quote is in relation to a decision to open a homicide investigation - a decision which led in the end to Blake being charged with murder.

    It is the stuff of a banana republic.
    It is quit a starling admission, and one that will just cause many other problems further down the line.
    Driving a 2 ton car towards you in an attempt to mow you down doesn't present a sufficient danger to justify being shot..

    I'm sorry but could you read that sentence again and confirm that is what you think?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,694
    Selebian said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513

    The three branches of "our" NHS: GPs, hospitals, and public health. The latter disgracefully palmed off onto local authorities by Lansley, before we sneer too much at our trans-Atlantic cousins.
    The US has a massive obesity problem, and their public heath is almost non-existent except for those with the top insurance plans.

    RFK has spoken eloquently about a healthcare industry that makes more money from people being sick, so that’s what they do, manage chronic sickness rather than try to make people well. He also wants to get the incessant pharma ads off TV, and look to European food standards rather than the garbage ultra-processed crap eaten by the majority of Americans.

    So long as childhood vaccines continue to be regulated at the State rather than the Federal level, he’s actually got a lot of good ideas.
    He wants fluoride removed from water - where all evidence says it's a good addition vastly reducing dental issues.
    I used to house share with a guy who got very upset about proposed fluoride addition to the water. He was also a purchaser of 'crystals' that he put on top of the electricity meter to reduce our electricity bill :lol:

    We didn't keep in touch.
    Well, suitable aligned crystals of Neodymium might do that...but I suspect the electricity company would notice.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,444
    Sandpit said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6245454rj3o

    “It was fed back to us... that if we hadn’t done it at that time then it’s likely there would have been a level of disorder,” says Mr Naseem. “Things were on a knife edge”.

    He should be walking the plank for that comment.

    Of course he’s more likely to fail up, perhaps he can be the new Met Commissioner?
    Would solve the problem quickly as all armed police officers transferred to different departments immediately...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,576
    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6245454rj3o

    “It was fed back to us... that if we hadn’t done it at that time then it’s likely there would have been a level of disorder,” says Mr Naseem. “Things were on a knife edge”.

    That quote is in relation to a decision to open a homicide investigation - a decision which led in the end to Blake being charged with murder.

    It is the stuff of a banana republic.
    It is quit a starling admission, and one that will just cause many other problems further down the line.
    Driving a 2 ton car towards you in an attempt to mow you down doesn't present a sufficient danger to justify being shot..

    I'm sorry but could you read that sentence again and confirm that is what you think?
    I suggest we charge Mr Naseem with murder. That will make the Met Firearms Squad feel better. And making groups feel better is the goal, right?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,900

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513

    The three branches of "our" NHS: GPs, hospitals, and public health. The latter disgracefully palmed off onto local authorities by Lansley, before we sneer too much at our trans-Atlantic cousins.
    The US has a massive obesity problem, and their public heath is almost non-existent except for those with the top insurance plans.

    RFK has spoken eloquently about a healthcare industry that makes more money from people being sick, so that’s what they do, manage chronic sickness rather than try to make people well. He also wants to get the incessant pharma ads off TV, and look to European food standards rather than the garbage ultra-processed crap eaten by the majority of Americans.

    So long as childhood vaccines continue to be regulated at the State rather than the Federal level, he’s actually got a lot of good ideas.
    RFK may speak eloquently (I disagree...), but his prescriptions are evil.

    For his anti-vax positions alone, he should be laughed at, not listened to.
    I suspect Trump is stringing RFK along and he will not be handed any kind of serious role in the Trump 2.0 disaster.

    I certainly doubt a president who exists on Big Macs is going to let RFK come after fast food industry.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,576
    Sandpit said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6245454rj3o

    “It was fed back to us... that if we hadn’t done it at that time then it’s likely there would have been a level of disorder,” says Mr Naseem. “Things were on a knife edge”.

    He should be walking the plank for that comment.

    Of course he’s more likely to fail up, perhaps he can be the new Met Commissioner?
    He’s already “moved on” to another role.

    Classic NU10K
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    nico679 said:

    If Harris does win then the decision by the Trump team to agree to that early debate with Biden in June will be seen as the event that changed the course of history .

    I suspect they never imagined Biden would be replaced and never imagined that Biden would be so awful in that debate .

    It certainly upended the whole narrative. I do think it’s interesting that the Trump campaign has really struggled to deal with a candidate more capable of landing punches on them. It’s understandable that initially they struggled to recalibrate but this deep into the new situation and the whole vibe from Trump and to a lesser extent the campaign is that they wish they were still up against Joe.
  • One thing Im definitely not doing on election night this year is staying up late. If you’re following on UK time I find you’re getting incessant talking, lots of exit poll waffle, and often very confused or incorrect info. There’s betting opportunities to be had I suppose, but I am steering clear this year.

    Up early is the best bet as you’re usually getting up right in the thick of it (but just prepare yourself for a good half an hour of serious reading and info crunching to get yourself up to speed).

    And whatever you do, stick to US networks. Avoid UK coverage like the plague. It is consistently awful.

    I agree with you. Best bet get a good nights sleep and turn the box on at 7.30am and take it from there. UK coverage is a waste of time. Stick with US Networks for this one.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,083
    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6245454rj3o

    “It was fed back to us... that if we hadn’t done it at that time then it’s likely there would have been a level of disorder,” says Mr Naseem. “Things were on a knife edge”.

    That quote is in relation to a decision to open a homicide investigation - a decision which led in the end to Blake being charged with murder.

    It is the stuff of a banana republic.
    It is quit a starling admission, and one that will just cause many other problems further down the line.
    Driving a 2 ton car towards you in an attempt to mow you down doesn't present a sufficient danger to justify being shot..

    I'm sorry but could you read that sentence again and confirm that is what you think?
    I'd be careful with that train of thought lest we have militant cyclists and drug dealers shooting their enemies and claiming fear of being run over as justification.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,307
    ToryJim said:

    nico679 said:

    If Harris does win then the decision by the Trump team to agree to that early debate with Biden in June will be seen as the event that changed the course of history .

    I suspect they never imagined Biden would be replaced and never imagined that Biden would be so awful in that debate .

    It certainly upended the whole narrative. I do think it’s interesting that the Trump campaign has really struggled to deal with a candidate more capable of landing punches on them. It’s understandable that initially they struggled to recalibrate but this deep into the new situation and the whole vibe from Trump and to a lesser extent the campaign is that they wish they were still up against Joe.
    Plan was surely to weaken Biden, not knock him out of the race totally.

    Two possible ways that went wrong. One was that Team Trump doesn't do subtle and were always at risk of overreaching. The other was that Pres. Biden was, and is, a gent, who eventually walked. Trump would never do that.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited November 4
    nico679 said:

    If Harris does win then the decision by the Trump team to agree to that early debate with Biden in June will be seen as the event that changed the course of history .

    I suspect they never imagined Biden would be replaced and never imagined that Biden would be so awful in that debate .

    I mean they must have known that replacing Biden would be an option, that's why they did it so early.

    There has to be some kind of award for the White House staffers who persuaded Biden to agree to a debate in June (??!) then managed to bait Trump into accepting it. Absolutely god tier politicsing.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Jonathan said:

    Off topic. Interesting-ish fact.

    Nick Clegg's Lib Dems won more votes in 2010 than Rishi Sunak's Tories got in 2024.

    The post Brexit Tories have become a strange clique. It's difficult to judge what they are anymore. Nowadays I picture them as the sort of people who would read and agree with the Daily Mail
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,415

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Relying upon “snorkelling” Republicans for Harris is a very thin straw to be clutching.

    Politics isn’t a raft you can ride for ever. Rafting is time limited. At some point the daft MAGA raft is going over the waterfall. It was always a raft only held together by fake economics, disruption not building, lying, bullying, a small and weak political coalition.

    If Republicans who hate all this, hate Trump, hate MAGA, and have had enough of it, have been waiting for a moment to finish it all off, this is that perfect moment isn’t it you agree?

    Like the end of Julius Caesar, only with invisible weapons, invisible assailants.

    Nice clean quick job, raft over waterfall, end of story.
    You’re assuming they hate him more than they hate their Democratic opponents. Sure, they may despise Trump, but they also hate price rises, sanctuary cities, BLM, defunding the police, trans self-I/D, and plenty of other things they associate with their opponents.

    Country club Republicans want tax cuts for the rich. Trump, not Harris, will deliver.

    At the risk of invoking Godwin, plenty of well-heeled Germans who voted Zentrum, BPP, and DNVP, despised the Nazis, but they still preferred them to the Left.
    And (perhaps again like the Germans) the GOP grandees believe they can control Trump. They may be right. Last time round Trump delivered tax cuts for the rich and stacked the Supreme Court. Trump's personal causes, China and Mexico, are where he slipped up.
    If Trump delivers, why would they care that he's an arsehole?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,415

    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6245454rj3o

    “It was fed back to us... that if we hadn’t done it at that time then it’s likely there would have been a level of disorder,” says Mr Naseem. “Things were on a knife edge”.

    That quote is in relation to a decision to open a homicide investigation - a decision which led in the end to Blake being charged with murder.

    It is the stuff of a banana republic.
    It is quit a starling admission, and one that will just cause many other problems further down the line.
    Driving a 2 ton car towards you in an attempt to mow you down doesn't present a sufficient danger to justify being shot..

    I'm sorry but could you read that sentence again and confirm that is what you think?
    I'd be careful with that train of thought lest we have militant cyclists and drug dealers shooting their enemies and claiming fear of being run over as justification.
    A member of the public carrying a gun will find it hard to run a successful defence of self-defence.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,415

    algarkirk said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6245454rj3o

    “It was fed back to us... that if we hadn’t done it at that time then it’s likely there would have been a level of disorder,” says Mr Naseem. “Things were on a knife edge”.

    That quote is in relation to a decision to open a homicide investigation - a decision which led in the end to Blake being charged with murder.

    It is the stuff of a banana republic.
    It is quit a starling admission, and one that will just cause many other problems further down the line.
    And, I'm sure that's why the CPS brought a murder prosecution that had not a chance of succeeding.

    Which may actually have been pragmatic, but is harsh on Sergeant Blake.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,401
    First big split between the LDs and Labour since Corbyn. The LDs are now calling Reeves' placing a 20% inheritance tax on agricultural estates worth over £1 million a 'tractor tax.'

    Could be important as some of the latest polls give a hung parliament with Labour needing LD support to stay in office.

    Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrats’ rural affairs spokesman, said: “This claim just doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Rachel Reeves must be living in cloud cuckoo land. It just shows this Labour Government doesn’t understand rural communities. What we cannot afford is to drive farmers out of business and undermine the country’s food security.”

    During the interview, Ms Reeves also defended the policy, which the Lib Dems have called a “tractor tax”, arguing that “only a very small number of agricultural properties will be affected”.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/03/reeves-we-cant-afford-farmers-to-die-tax-free/
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    ToryJim said:

    nico679 said:

    If Harris does win then the decision by the Trump team to agree to that early debate with Biden in June will be seen as the event that changed the course of history .

    I suspect they never imagined Biden would be replaced and never imagined that Biden would be so awful in that debate .

    It certainly upended the whole narrative. I do think it’s interesting that the Trump campaign has really struggled to deal with a candidate more capable of landing punches on them. It’s understandable that initially they struggled to recalibrate but this deep into the new situation and the whole vibe from Trump and to a lesser extent the campaign is that they wish they were still up against Joe.
    Plan was surely to weaken Biden, not knock him out of the race totally.

    Two possible ways that went wrong. One was that Team Trump doesn't do subtle and were always at risk of overreaching. The other was that Pres. Biden was, and is, a gent, who eventually walked. Trump would never do that.
    I’m sure that was the plan, and definitely Trump doesn’t do subtle. I think also something that caught everyone off guard was the way Dems rallied to Kamala. I think plenty of folks anticipated some sort of bun fight.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    The case against RFK Jnr and his ilk.

    Want to know what rolling back the clock on public health would really look like?

    I wrote in @TheAtlantic about the under-appreciated miracles of public health over the past century.

    I recommend reading it to understand what’s truly at stake!

    https://x.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1853240081936478513

    The three branches of "our" NHS: GPs, hospitals, and public health. The latter disgracefully palmed off onto local authorities by Lansley, before we sneer too much at our trans-Atlantic cousins.
    The US has a massive obesity problem, and their public heath is almost non-existent except for those with the top insurance plans.

    RFK has spoken eloquently about a healthcare industry that makes more money from people being sick, so that’s what they do, manage chronic sickness rather than try to make people well. He also wants to get the incessant pharma ads off TV, and look to European food standards rather than the garbage ultra-processed crap eaten by the majority of Americans.

    So long as childhood vaccines continue to be regulated at the State rather than the Federal level, he’s actually got a lot of good ideas.
    He wants fluoride removed from water - where all evidence says it's a good addition vastly reducing dental issues.
    There’s a Trumper I sort of accidentally follow on Twitter (I think originally I thought he was a superb parody). He believes that since most of us are not scientists and healthcare experts, we only ‘know’ that fluoride, vaxxes etc are good because we have been socialised into believing they are. In that context RFKism and ingesting bleach are just as valid as any other health approaches.

    https://x.com/soncharm/status/1853070307386445854?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    Clearly inspired by......

    https://www.tiktok.com/@whatchugotforme/video/6819061413877763334?lang=en
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,581
    algarkirk said:

    Yvette Cooper sounded like she had given up on R4 Today this morning, hardly bothered to repeat the tired old tropes on small boats, did it very badly and sounds as if there is little to offer.

    Governing is so much more difficult than just sitting on the opposition benches criticising endlessly.
  • Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    Off topic. Interesting-ish fact.

    Nick Clegg's Lib Dems won more votes in 2010 than Rishi Sunak's Tories got in 2024.

    The post Brexit Tories have become a strange clique. It's difficult to judge what they are anymore. Nowadays I picture them as the sort of people who would read and agree with the Daily Mail
    Good morning

    I doubt the conservative party really considers your views as you are not their target vote

    As I said yesterday Kemi will seek to recover some votes from Reform and to attract the conservatives who either abstained or voted Labour at the GE

    As has been said on Sky this morning Kemi is a straight talker and will upset her opponents, but straight talking is needed rather than gaining office by swearing no tax increases then imposing 40 billion of such increases as Reeves has just done

    If you are agreeing with her then she is not doing her job
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,468
    edited November 4
    HYUFD said:

    First big split between the LDs and Labour since Corbyn. The LDs are now calling Reeves' placing a 20% inheritance tax on agricultural estates worth over £1 million a 'tractor tax.'

    Could be important as some of the latest polls give a hung parliament with Labour needing LD support to stay in office.

    Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrats’ rural affairs spokesman, said: “This claim just doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Rachel Reeves must be living in cloud cuckoo land. It just shows this Labour Government doesn’t understand rural communities. What we cannot afford is to drive farmers out of business and undermine the country’s food security.”

    During the interview, Ms Reeves also defended the policy, which the Lib Dems have called a “tractor tax”, arguing that “only a very small number of agricultural properties will be affected”.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/11/03/reeves-we-cant-afford-farmers-to-die-tax-free/

    An artefact of Lib Dem seat distribution in the new Lib Dems, where MPs come in double decker bus quantities :smile: .
  • Jonathan said:

    Off topic. Interesting-ish fact.

    Nick Clegg's Lib Dems won more votes in 2010 than Rishi Sunak's Tories got in 2024.

    And Reform polled higher than the Lib Dems in the GE
  • novanova Posts: 692
    eek said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6245454rj3o

    “It was fed back to us... that if we hadn’t done it at that time then it’s likely there would have been a level of disorder,” says Mr Naseem. “Things were on a knife edge”.

    That quote is in relation to a decision to open a homicide investigation - a decision which led in the end to Blake being charged with murder.

    It is the stuff of a banana republic.
    It is quit a starling admission, and one that will just cause many other problems further down the line.
    Driving a 2 ton car towards you in an attempt to mow you down doesn't present a sufficient danger to justify being shot..

    I'm sorry but could you read that sentence again and confirm that is what you think?
    Whatever the rights and wrongs of this particular incident, that's not really an accurate description.

    1. The car was still hemmed in, so wasn't about to mow down the shooting officer.

    2. Firearms officers are expected to be in dangerous situations, and in almost every case, without shooting people.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,468
    Good morning everyone.

    Some input from David Lammy on his attitude to slavery reparations.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgkpy4634go

    Very clearly not engaging with the "Money. NOW." lobby.

    But imo still not broad enough as an intended conversation.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,632
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Is htere such a thing as an unpopular mandate?

    Yes.

    Bush 2000 and Trump 2016.

    Starmer 2024, ahem.
    And Trudeau 2021 or Ardern 2017 or Blair 2005
    In my view, no government in the UK has been genuinely popular. The best you can do is get around 40% of the vote on an 80% turnout, which means that about twice as many people that voted for you, either voted against you or couldn't be bothered.

    All PMs should recognise this, but they never do. They thing that because they won a FPTP election they are popular. They are not. They should govern with humility.

    (Obviously, this applies even more in the last election to Starmer, before anyone feels the need to leap in)
    Labour in 2024 received fewer votes than in 2019, let alone 2017. Although they did receive more votes than Labour in 2005.

    The Tories in 1992 are the only party to have ever received more than 14 million votes at a UK GE, but even that record-setting level of popularity didn't last very long. Support always has to be won afresh.
This discussion has been closed.