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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Budget betting : How long? What will he say? What colour ti

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    My Bets:

    £7 @ 3-1 1 - 2 sips, Paddy Power
    £21 @ 4-7 2.5+ sips, WIlliam Hill.

    £-28 0 sips
    £0 1-2 sips
    £+5 3+ sips.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    TGOHF said:

    BobaFett said:

    TGOHF said:

    O/T BETTING POST

    Man U 3.25 on betfair to "qualify" for last 8 - decent price IMHO.

    That's a good bet, thanks. I might have some of that.

    I don't know, I was at Old Trafford on Sunday and they looked like they had lost all morale. Not even anger seemed to eminate from anyone at the performance ,mere acceptance
    I think the anger is turning from the manager to the players (£300k a week ?) - certainly tonight is the last shot at redemption - you can always trade out if they go 1-0 up early ;)

    I am building up my hopes that Moyes is an honourable man and will do the decent thing when they go out tonight. I am not building them very high though.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited March 2014
    Grandiose said:

    Employment figures:

    Private pay rises are up to 1.7% on a three month average, 1.9% on month to month. For the public sector its 0.5% and 0.9%. Interestingly it seems to be the nationalised banks that are dragging down public sector growth, without them its 0.9% and 1.3%
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    What is interesting about the Budget is the opportunity for Osborne to stake his claim in the race to be next Tory leader.He could play a blinder and end charitable tax status for Eton.
    The responses of the other candidates,and their fathers,will reveal a lot about their campaign pitch.
    Just had another point on Teresa May to handbag the lot of them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Hills seem to have the 'trader' out on my bets again.
  • I went for Long Term Economic Plan and Tough decisions.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016

    DavidL said:

    Anyone interested in the EU elections should follow www.pollwatch2014.eu looking at the expected balance in the forthcomming EU parliament.

    This is important as it could well affect who will be the next commission president. Juncker for the EPP (Christian Democrats et al) or Schulz for the Socialists?

    Voting Tory will not affect this battle, as the ECR have not put up a candidate.

    I think they will inevitably vote for the EPP candidate. UKIP will probably not turn up again so if you don't want a socialist in charge.....

    It's actually a good question, worth asking your candidates. The EPP candidate is likely to be more conservative but also more pro-integration.
    I think the chances of me meeting any candidate for the EU Parliament are close to nil. To my recollection it has not happened so far.

    Thought you were being diligent in Rome?
  • TGOHF said:

    O/T BETTING POST

    Man U 3.25 on betfair to "qualify" for last 8 - decent price IMHO.

    Good spot, although I've backed Olympiakos to win tonight, they do have an appalling record in England, losing 11 out 11.

    This should cheer up Manchester United fans, it is an omen for beating Olympiakos and going on to win the cup with the big ears.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veKx_gJavuw
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016

    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    DavidL said:

    has.

    I may be wrong but I don't think blaming the last govt when you have been in power for four years is wise. The public tend to think "erm, you've been here for what seems like an eternity, what have you been doing about it?"
    Have a word with yerself, mate. PM Milliband and COE Balls will still be blaming Cameron and co in 2019. Hell, your gang still try and pin the blame on Thatcher!
    Some Labourites do - they are wrong to do so...
    What about Milliband and Balls in 2019, will they still be blaming Cameron and Osborne?

    Perhaps - Ozzy's record on the debt and deficit is lousy but, by then, they should be standing on their own two feet.

    Personally, I think that after 4 years, a government should be taking it on the chin.

    If Milliband and Balls aren't still blaming the previous government in 2019, I'd be pleasantly surprised. I don't expect to be, though. Let's face it, they hardly put their hands up immediately after, did they?
    Be honest, you can't really expect politicians to behave in any other way, can you?

    Starting £156bn behind was worse than the mountain that FC Schalke faced last night. It is completely unrealistic to expect the widespread devastation inflicted on our economy by the last government to be fixed in 4 years or frankly even 14 years.

    At best the deficit will be gone but the debt mountain will be driving up the taxes of your children and reducing the services they get from the state for most of their working lives.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    BobaFett said:

    TGOHF said:

    O/T BETTING POST

    Man U 3.25 on betfair to "qualify" for last 8 - decent price IMHO.

    That's a good bet, thanks. I might have some of that.

    I don't know, I was at Old Trafford on Sunday and they looked like they had lost all morale. Not even anger seemed to eminate from anyone at the performance ,mere acceptance
    I think the anger is turning from the manager to the players (£300k a week ?) - certainly tonight is the last shot at redemption - you can always trade out if they go 1-0 up early ;)

    I am building up my hopes that Moyes is an honourable man and will do the decent thing when they go out tonight. I am not building them very high though.
    Walk away from a 6 yr contract just because Rio Ferdinand doesn't like being told to get the finger out ? No chance.

    The players will be out before the manager.
  • Also bet on Labour's Economic Mess at 5/1
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    On a serious note, I have a bet outstanding with tim over the result of Colchester in 2015. I'm happy to keep it open, but equally happy to void it if that makes things easier since the account doesn't post any more. So if anyone is in contact with him could they offer the choice to him for me? Thanks.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    Grandiose said:

    On a serious note, I have a bet outstanding with tim over the result of Colchester in 2015. I'm happy to keep it open, but equally happy to void it if that makes things easier since the account doesn't post any more. So if anyone is in contact with him could they offer the choice to him for me? Thanks.

    You think he went away?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    TGOHF said:

    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    BobaFett said:

    TGOHF said:

    O/T BETTING POST

    Man U 3.25 on betfair to "qualify" for last 8 - decent price IMHO.

    That's a good bet, thanks. I might have some of that.

    I don't know, I was at Old Trafford on Sunday and they looked like they had lost all morale. Not even anger seemed to eminate from anyone at the performance ,mere acceptance
    I think the anger is turning from the manager to the players (£300k a week ?) - certainly tonight is the last shot at redemption - you can always trade out if they go 1-0 up early ;)

    I am building up my hopes that Moyes is an honourable man and will do the decent thing when they go out tonight. I am not building them very high though.
    Walk away from a 6 yr contract just because Rio Ferdinand doesn't like being told to get the finger out ? No chance.

    The players will be out before the manager.
    Sigh. In my head I know you are right but a man needs dreams...

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 1m

    More on @George_Osborne's big Budget rabbit: it will be a "radical and liberalising" move on personal tax, insiders saying.

    Hmm my expectations are now raised to be dashed..
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Grandiose said:

    On a serious note, I have a bet outstanding with tim over the result of Colchester in 2015. I'm happy to keep it open, but equally happy to void it if that makes things easier since the account doesn't post any more. So if anyone is in contact with him could they offer the choice to him for me? Thanks.

    You think he went away?
    Every other day someone is branded with the mantle. But as far as I'm aware, the charge has never been accepted openly. If that's right, I don't care to speculate.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016

    Grandiose said:

    On a serious note, I have a bet outstanding with tim over the result of Colchester in 2015. I'm happy to keep it open, but equally happy to void it if that makes things easier since the account doesn't post any more. So if anyone is in contact with him could they offer the choice to him for me? Thanks.

    You think he went away?
    I have a bet with him that the deficit this financial year will be lower than last FY which I am expecting to be confirmed in about 3 hours. I would be interested to know the position.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited March 2014
    @BobaFett

    ' - the economy was growing in 2010. Ozzy's useless policies choked it off so we had three wasted years,'

    Which we know was based on Brown's pre-election spending splurge with zero cuts,to pretend that was a realistic option is laughable.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    TGOHF said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 1m

    More on @George_Osborne's big Budget rabbit: it will be a "radical and liberalising" move on personal tax, insiders saying.

    Hmm my expectations are now raised to be dashed..

    Unless it is combining IC+NI, I think nothing can live up to that hype.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    TGOHF said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 1m

    More on @George_Osborne's big Budget rabbit: it will be a "radical and liberalising" move on personal tax, insiders saying.

    Hmm my expectations are now raised to be dashed..

    Unless it is combining IC+NI, I think nothing can live up to that hype.
    That would take years and there would be bound to be losers.

    10 pence tax rate?

    I once read a proposal for a negative tax rate. Rather interesting actually because it incentivises declaring your income.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    TGOHF said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 1m

    More on @George_Osborne's big Budget rabbit: it will be a "radical and liberalising" move on personal tax, insiders saying.

    Hmm my expectations are now raised to be dashed..

    Unless it is combining IC+NI, I think nothing can live up to that hype.

    Combining IC and NIC would be the dream. Probably only a commitment to get the Personal Allowance up to the full time minimum wage equivalent.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 1m

    More on @George_Osborne's big Budget rabbit: it will be a "radical and liberalising" move on personal tax, insiders saying.

    Hmm my expectations are now raised to be dashed..

    Unless it is combining IC+NI, I think nothing can live up to that hype.
    Scrapping IHT ? ;)

    Problem with combining IC+NI is that it would take until after the GE to kick in -not very GO like...
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    DavidL said:

    I have a bet with him that the deficit this financial year will be lower than last FY which I am expecting to be confirmed in about 3 hours. I would be interested to know the position.

    I'm sure Tim will pay if he loses; no bets should be contingent on people continuing to post. If you need to contact him several regulars should be able to assist (or OGH may be willing).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited March 2014
    Grandiose said:

    TGOHF said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 1m

    More on @George_Osborne's big Budget rabbit: it will be a "radical and liberalising" move on personal tax, insiders saying.

    Hmm my expectations are now raised to be dashed..

    Unless it is combining IC+NI, I think nothing can live up to that hype.
    That would take years and there would be bound to be losers.

    10 pence tax rate?

    I once read a proposal for a negative tax rate. Rather interesting actually because it incentivises declaring your income.
    There would be losers and yes it would take years...

    This seems to be the nonsense situation we have got into with modern politics. Nobody can ever be seen as a loser from a tax change (unless it is soak the rich or blast those on benefits) and politicians try all sorts not to just admit it. Instead using the likes of fiscal drag to make people worse off over a long period of time.

    And anything that is hard or complex, is immediately a no no.

    The biggest problem with any combination of IC & NI is dealing fairly with those who are retired and pay IC but not NI.
  • He's not going to announce a flat rate income tax is he?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Grandiose said:

    TGOHF said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 1m

    More on @George_Osborne's big Budget rabbit: it will be a "radical and liberalising" move on personal tax, insiders saying.

    Hmm my expectations are now raised to be dashed..

    Unless it is combining IC+NI, I think nothing can live up to that hype.
    That would take years and there would be bound to be losers.

    10 pence tax rate?

    I once read a proposal for a negative tax rate. Rather interesting actually because it incentivises declaring your income.


    The biggest problem with another combination is dealing fairly with those who are retired and pay IC.
    Perhaps Osborne could bump up the starting point for paying NI, would be cheaper than an equivalent raise in the personal allowance and would reward 'hard working people'

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    He's not going to announce a flat rate income tax is he?

    Combined husband and wife tax allowance ? Good lefty baiting stuff..
  • TGOHF said:

    He's not going to announce a flat rate income tax is he?

    Combined husband and wife tax allowance ? Good lefty baiting stuff..
    See that makes me nervous.

    George Osborne is responsible for the two largest and sustained changes in voting intentions in the last decade.

    The omnishables and his IHT plan that stopped the election that never was in 2007.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    He's not going to announce a flat rate income tax is he?

    Combined husband and wife tax allowance ? Good lefty baiting stuff..
    See that makes me nervous.

    George Osborne is responsible for the two largest and sustained changes in voting intentions in the last decade.

    The omnishables and his IHT plan that stopped the election that never was in 2007.
    Would take too long to bring in. Anything that happens after the GE is irrelevant TBF. Needs to be cash in pocket this April or next.

  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    He's not going to announce a flat rate income tax is he?

    Combined husband and wife tax allowance ? Good lefty baiting stuff..
    See that makes me nervous.

    George Osborne is responsible for the two largest and sustained changes in voting intentions in the last decade.

    The omnishables and his IHT plan that stopped the election that never was in 2007.
    Would take too long to bring in. Anything that happens after the GE is irrelevant TBF. Needs to be cash in pocket this April or next.

    He'll save that for the 2015 budget, which will be the launching pad for the 2015 General election campaign?
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    He's not going to announce a flat rate income tax is he?

    Combined husband and wife tax allowance ? Good lefty baiting stuff..
    See that makes me nervous.

    George Osborne is responsible for the two largest and sustained changes in voting intentions in the last decade.

    The omnishables and his IHT plan that stopped the election that never was in 2007.
    Would take too long to bring in. Anything that happens after the GE is irrelevant TBF. Needs to be cash in pocket this April or next.

    Compared to the probability that Osborne has taken some run-of-the-mill measure and is pretending it's revolutionary, I'd say this was all negligible in the extreme.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Young Adam Afriyie clearly still thinks he has a chance to be next Tory leader and then the next Obama .After the Euro elections he could prove a potent threat to the other candidates in the race to succeed Cameron.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/we-need-budget-honesty
  • DavidL said:

    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    DavidL said:

    has.

    I may be wrong but I don't think blaming the last govt when you have been in power for four years is wise. The public tend to think "erm, you've been here for what seems like an eternity, what have you been doing about it?"
    Have a word with yerself, mate. PM Milliband and COE Balls will still be blaming Cameron and co in 2019. Hell, your gang still try and pin the blame on Thatcher!
    Some Labourites do - they are wrong to do so...
    What about Milliband and Balls in 2019, will they still be blaming Cameron and Osborne?

    Perhaps - Ozzy's record on the debt and deficit is lousy but, by then, they should be standing on their own two feet.

    Personally, I think that after 4 years, a government should be taking it on the chin.

    If Milliband and Balls aren't still blaming the previous government in 2019, I'd be pleasantly surprised. I don't expect to be, though. Let's face it, they hardly put their hands up immediately after, did they?
    Be honest, you can't really expect politicians to behave in any other way, can you?

    Starting £156bn behind was worse than the mountain that FC Schalke faced last night. It is completely unrealistic to expect the widespread devastation inflicted on our economy by the last government to be fixed in 4 years or frankly even 14 years.

    At best the deficit will be gone but the debt mountain will be driving up the taxes of your children and reducing the services they get from the state for most of their working lives.

    But when is enough enough? We get government after government using the previous administration as an excuse as to why they can't do what they want to do, or have to cut this or raise that. They spend a full parliament bleating about the last lot. If Cameron somehow gets back in next time, he'll still blame Labour. If Milliband gets in, he'll spend a full term blaming Cameron and Osborne. It's a freaking merry go round.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Well it's two hours before the budget and the government isn't already engulfed in some storm or other. It's a start.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    TGOHF said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 1m

    More on @George_Osborne's big Budget rabbit: it will be a "radical and liberalising" move on personal tax, insiders saying.

    Hmm my expectations are now raised to be dashed..

    Unless it is combining IC+NI, I think nothing can live up to that hype.
    I wonder if it would be possible to make employers NI more visible, so that employees would see it effectively coming out of their [higher] pay packet?

    Making it more visible would increase the pressure to reduce taxes for an incoming Labour government.

    Incidentally, on this theme, is there any news on the statements Osborne was going to have sent out itemising how people's [direct] taxes were spent?
  • Young Adam Afriyie clearly still thinks he has a chance to be next Tory leader and then the next Obama .After the Euro elections he could prove a potent threat to the other candidates in the race to succeed Cameron.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/we-need-budget-honesty

    Nick Soames summed up the attitudes of most Tory MPs and activists towards Adam Afriyie.

    Mr Soames told Eurosceptic Mr Afriyie: ‘You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your Prime Minister and your country.......‘This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2467597/You-chateau-bottled-nuclear-powered----Tory-grandee-Soames-launches-astonishing-tea-room-broadside-EU-referendum-rebel-Afriyie.html
  • Grandiose said:

    Well it's two hours before the budget and the government isn't already engulfed in some storm or other. It's a start.

    I'm worried for good or ill, that the budget will get overshadowed by the start of world war III
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    George Osborne is responsible for the two largest and sustained changes in voting intentions in the last decade.

    These are silver & bronze to Clegg's gold [decision to enter coalition].

  • George Osborne is responsible for the two largest and sustained changes in voting intentions in the last decade.

    These are silver & bronze to Clegg's gold [decision to enter coalition].

    That's a very good point.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    TGOHF said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 1m

    More on @George_Osborne's big Budget rabbit: it will be a "radical and liberalising" move on personal tax, insiders saying.

    Hmm my expectations are now raised to be dashed..

    Unless it is combining IC+NI, I think nothing can live up to that hype.
    Incidentally, on this theme, is there any news on the statements Osborne was going to have sent out itemising how people's [direct] taxes were spent?

    This year seems to be the appointed time for the scheme to start. No idea exactly when.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10106437/Revealed-how-much-you-pay-towards-benefit-bill.html
  • ICYMI last night

    A MINISTER stunned MPs by including SEVEN One Direction song names in a House of Commons answer.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5515949/ed-vaizey-one-direction-song-titles-commons-answer.html
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    Not sure what the benefit of trailing a big surprise unless it really is a big surprise. Even then, why do it four hours in advance? Seems strange to me. Maybe they are so excited they cannot contain themselves. Another possibility is that they are doing it to wrong-foot Labour, which will now spend time thinking about what the surprise might be so that they can respond to it. Whatever way you look at it, though, it's all very JCR; which - I suppose - is par for the course.
  • Grandiose said:

    Well it's two hours before the budget and the government isn't already engulfed in some storm or other. It's a start.

    I'm worried for good or ill, that the budget will get overshadowed by the start of world war III
    The impending collapse of China's credit / shadow banking system is going to dominate all other financial reporting in the coming months. Today is the calm before the real storm, especially in the Eurozone.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Young Adam Afriyie clearly still thinks he has a chance to be next Tory leader and then the next Obama .After the Euro elections he could prove a potent threat to the other candidates in the race to succeed Cameron.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/we-need-budget-honesty

    Nick Soames summed up the attitudes of most Tory MPs and activists towards Adam Afriyie.

    Mr Soames told Eurosceptic Mr Afriyie: ‘You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your Prime Minister and your country.......‘This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2467597/You-chateau-bottled-nuclear-powered----Tory-grandee-Soames-launches-astonishing-tea-room-broadside-EU-referendum-rebel-Afriyie.html
    I'm only off here a few hours and already I have missed a BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:
  • Young Adam Afriyie clearly still thinks he has a chance to be next Tory leader and then the next Obama .After the Euro elections he could prove a potent threat to the other candidates in the race to succeed Cameron.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/we-need-budget-honesty

    Nick Soames summed up the attitudes of most Tory MPs and activists towards Adam Afriyie.

    Mr Soames told Eurosceptic Mr Afriyie: ‘You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your Prime Minister and your country.......‘This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2467597/You-chateau-bottled-nuclear-powered----Tory-grandee-Soames-launches-astonishing-tea-room-broadside-EU-referendum-rebel-Afriyie.html
    I'm only off here a few hours and already I have missed a BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:
    It's from last October.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited March 2014
    Hugh Pym Chief economics correspondent, BBC News tweets: "Employment up again (Nov-Jan) - but all accounted for by self-employment - employee numbers down."

    The underlying message is some how this is a negative thing, slightly strange outlook.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779

    Young Adam Afriyie clearly still thinks he has a chance to be next Tory leader and then the next Obama .After the Euro elections he could prove a potent threat to the other candidates in the race to succeed Cameron.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/we-need-budget-honesty

    Nick Soames summed up the attitudes of most Tory MPs and activists towards Adam Afriyie.

    Mr Soames told Eurosceptic Mr Afriyie: ‘You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your Prime Minister and your country.......‘This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2467597/You-chateau-bottled-nuclear-powered----Tory-grandee-Soames-launches-astonishing-tea-room-broadside-EU-referendum-rebel-Afriyie.html
    I'm only off here a few hours and already I have missed a BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:
    Careful now...you wouldn't want to get addicted to posting here..
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Auchentennach awaits .... I'm hoping that Ozzie will announce that for services rendered Scottish nobles with vast organs will be offered a substantial pension from the nation.

    Or should that be Scottish LibDem's rendered ....
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited March 2014
    @compouter2

    'It's from last October'

    Try to keep up.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Hugh Pym Chief economics correspondent, BBC News tweets: "Employment up again (Nov-Jan) - but all accounted for by self-employment - employee numbers down."


    The underlying message is some how this is a negative thing, slightly strange outlook.


    There is a concern that to get people off JSA, they are being persuaded to set up as self-employed ebay traders, gardeners, etc, etc. If they then fill out the forms correctly they can claim for working tax credit and get more than they would have on JSA even if they aren't really working many hours or making that much money. Difficult to tell whether this is the case and if so whether it is a good or a bad thing.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Patrick said:

    Grandiose said:

    Well it's two hours before the budget and the government isn't already engulfed in some storm or other. It's a start.

    I'm worried for good or ill, that the budget will get overshadowed by the start of world war III
    The impending collapse of China's credit / shadow banking system is going to dominate all other financial reporting in the coming months. Today is the calm before the real storm, especially in the Eurozone.
    Apart from cars - what do we sell to China ? (serious question)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668

    Hugh Pym Chief economics correspondent, BBC News tweets: "Employment up again (Nov-Jan) - but all accounted for by self-employment - employee numbers down."

    The underlying message is some how this is a negative thing, slightly strange outlook.

    It depends, doesn't it? Being self-employed by choice is great; being self-employed because you do not have a choice is not necessarily as thrilling - especially if you are not actually generating an income.

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Young Adam Afriyie clearly still thinks he has a chance to be next Tory leader and then the next Obama .After the Euro elections he could prove a potent threat to the other candidates in the race to succeed Cameron.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/03/we-need-budget-honesty

    Nick Soames summed up the attitudes of most Tory MPs and activists towards Adam Afriyie.

    Mr Soames told Eurosceptic Mr Afriyie: ‘You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your Prime Minister and your country.......‘This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2467597/You-chateau-bottled-nuclear-powered----Tory-grandee-Soames-launches-astonishing-tea-room-broadside-EU-referendum-rebel-Afriyie.html
    I'm only off here a few hours and already I have missed a BLUE ON BLUE INCOMING:
    It's from last October.

    Thank God for that, wouldn't want my audience to think I have let them down.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    TGOHF said:

    Patrick said:

    Grandiose said:

    Well it's two hours before the budget and the government isn't already engulfed in some storm or other. It's a start.

    I'm worried for good or ill, that the budget will get overshadowed by the start of world war III
    The impending collapse of China's credit / shadow banking system is going to dominate all other financial reporting in the coming months. Today is the calm before the real storm, especially in the Eurozone.
    Apart from cars - what do we sell to China ? (serious question)

    Many kinds of services, I'd have thought; plus a fair few high-end branded products. It's not a huge market for the UK though.

  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591

    Hugh Pym Chief economics correspondent, BBC News tweets: "Employment up again (Nov-Jan) - but all accounted for by self-employment - employee numbers down."

    The underlying message is some how this is a negative thing, slightly strange outlook.

    It depends, doesn't it? Being self-employed by choice is great; being self-employed because you do not have a choice is not necessarily as thrilling - especially if you are not actually generating an income.

    Given wage growth has accelerated significantly in this release, it looks like more of the former than the later.
  • I think George is wearing a blue tie

    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 14s

    What’s in the Box, George? http://guyfawk.es/1lO0GC4 pic.twitter.com/5UD2eZnHNK
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    TGOHF said:

    Patrick said:

    Grandiose said:

    Well it's two hours before the budget and the government isn't already engulfed in some storm or other. It's a start.

    I'm worried for good or ill, that the budget will get overshadowed by the start of world war III
    The impending collapse of China's credit / shadow banking system is going to dominate all other financial reporting in the coming months. Today is the calm before the real storm, especially in the Eurozone.
    Apart from cars - what do we sell to China ? (serious question)
    Mr Bean. They love him over there apparently.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    Hugh Pym Chief economics correspondent, BBC News tweets: "Employment up again (Nov-Jan) - but all accounted for by self-employment - employee numbers down."

    The underlying message is some how this is a negative thing, slightly strange outlook.

    Also, from today's BoE minutes

    "Of the lower than expected 193,000 increase in employment in 2013 Q4, 172,000 had been
    accounted for by an increase in self-employment. It was possible that some of these individuals were, in reality, underemployed, and so represented spare economic capacity that could be drawn upon as demand recovered without generating upward pressure on wages or prices. In this case, the unemployment rate would be understating the degree of slack in the economy.

    There was some evidence, for instance, from HMRC data that the pay of the self-employed had worsened relative to that of employees in recent years, perhaps indicative of lower output or fewer hours worked. But, against that, it appeared that self-employment had grown most in those sectors that were estimated to have seen increases in output at the end of 2013 – for example, the construction sector and a range of service sectors. "

    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/minutes/Documents/mpc/pdf/2014/mpc1403.pdf
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Patrick said:

    Grandiose said:

    Well it's two hours before the budget and the government isn't already engulfed in some storm or other. It's a start.

    I'm worried for good or ill, that the budget will get overshadowed by the start of world war III
    The impending collapse of China's credit / shadow banking system is going to dominate all other financial reporting in the coming months. Today is the calm before the real storm, especially in the Eurozone.
    Apart from cars - what do we sell to China ? (serious question)
    Mr Bean. They love him over there apparently.
    Is that why Gordon is never in the HoC ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Whatever happens this is one of the best kept secrets in budget recent history..
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2014
    I'm on 'Energy Prices' at 2/1, and I sold 'Billions' on SPIN at 36.

    I missed 'Long Term Economic Plan' - that was a goody at 4/5 but is now 1/2
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Scott_P said:
    I daresay the budget/budget word-play is not original, but it's pretty effective.

    But isn't "hardworking people" rather government-esque. I would have thought "ordinary" would have worked better.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    "Deficit" @ 25/1 on PP's first cliche market
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    TGOHF said:

    Whatever happens this is one of the best kept secrets in budget recent history..

    Oooh the excitement, I had better go and wake Basil up.
  • Pong said:

    "Deficit" @ 25/1 on PP's first cliche market

    I'm on

  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Pong said:

    "Deficit" @ 25/1 on PP's first cliche market

    I'm on

    Menstrual cycle?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I do hope so!

    I think George is wearing a blue tie

    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 14s

    What’s in the Box, George? http://guyfawk.es/1lO0GC4 pic.twitter.com/5UD2eZnHNK

  • I see Paddy Power have a market on the European elections turnout

    Turnout in 2009 was 34%

    Had a couple of punts on 29%-34% at 5/2 and 34.01-39% at 9/4

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1648639

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    JonathanD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 1m

    More on @George_Osborne's big Budget rabbit: it will be a "radical and liberalising" move on personal tax, insiders saying.

    Hmm my expectations are now raised to be dashed..

    Unless it is combining IC+NI, I think nothing can live up to that hype.
    Incidentally, on this theme, is there any news on the statements Osborne was going to have sent out itemising how people's [direct] taxes were spent?
    This year seems to be the appointed time for the scheme to start. No idea exactly when.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10106437/Revealed-how-much-you-pay-towards-benefit-bill.html
    Ah thanks. Expect that will be announced again today.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,149
    TGOHF said:

    Patrick said:

    Grandiose said:

    Well it's two hours before the budget and the government isn't already engulfed in some storm or other. It's a start.

    I'm worried for good or ill, that the budget will get overshadowed by the start of world war III
    The impending collapse of China's credit / shadow banking system is going to dominate all other financial reporting in the coming months. Today is the calm before the real storm, especially in the Eurozone.
    Apart from cars - what do we sell to China ? (serious question)
    Pig come.

    http://tinyurl.com/l4oo47w
  • DavidL said:

    At best the deficit will be gone but the debt mountain will be driving up the taxes of your children and reducing the services they get from the state for most of their working lives.

    Which is fine for Labour because unborn children can't vote. It's not as though 51% is voting to expropriate the other 49%; they're actually voting themselves the money of the future members of the 49% as well. While applauding themselves for their fairness, niceness and deeply moral outlook.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Patrick said:

    Grandiose said:

    Well it's two hours before the budget and the government isn't already engulfed in some storm or other. It's a start.

    I'm worried for good or ill, that the budget will get overshadowed by the start of world war III
    The impending collapse of China's credit / shadow banking system is going to dominate all other financial reporting in the coming months. Today is the calm before the real storm, especially in the Eurozone.
    Apart from cars - what do we sell to China ? (serious question)
    Pig come.

    http://tinyurl.com/l4oo47w
    Of course.

    I guess Range Rover, Aston Martin and Rolls Royce have the most to lose from a Chinese economic shock.
  • TGOHF said:

    Patrick said:

    Grandiose said:

    Well it's two hours before the budget and the government isn't already engulfed in some storm or other. It's a start.

    I'm worried for good or ill, that the budget will get overshadowed by the start of world war III
    The impending collapse of China's credit / shadow banking system is going to dominate all other financial reporting in the coming months. Today is the calm before the real storm, especially in the Eurozone.
    Apart from cars - what do we sell to China ? (serious question)
    TGOHF said:

    Patrick said:

    Grandiose said:

    Well it's two hours before the budget and the government isn't already engulfed in some storm or other. It's a start.

    I'm worried for good or ill, that the budget will get overshadowed by the start of world war III
    The impending collapse of China's credit / shadow banking system is going to dominate all other financial reporting in the coming months. Today is the calm before the real storm, especially in the Eurozone.
    Apart from cars - what do we sell to China ? (serious question)
    Tourism. Top end retail very dependent on wealthy Chinese in some cases. I was in Selfridges at Christmas time - Jesus, it was like walking into a big store on the WangFuJing.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,149
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Patrick said:

    Grandiose said:

    Well it's two hours before the budget and the government isn't already engulfed in some storm or other. It's a start.

    I'm worried for good or ill, that the budget will get overshadowed by the start of world war III
    The impending collapse of China's credit / shadow banking system is going to dominate all other financial reporting in the coming months. Today is the calm before the real storm, especially in the Eurozone.
    Apart from cars - what do we sell to China ? (serious question)
    Pig come.

    http://tinyurl.com/l4oo47w
    Of course.

    I guess Range Rover, Aston Martin and Rolls Royce have the most to lose from a Chinese economic shock.
    Also tourism & further education?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BobaFett said:

    Financier said:

    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    DavidL said:

    One thing that might get greater prominence than usual if I am right about the budget being boring is the quality of the reply. Ball's reply to the Autumn statement was rightly panned as evidence that Labour had lost the argument on the economy fairly comprehensively.

    Can his boss do any better today? This is going to be the budget in this Parliament with the most good macroeconomic news. We will no doubt have references to the squeezed middle, falling real wages, wasted years etc etc but it will not be easy for Ed to sound like he has much constructive to say or an alternative vision going forward.

    Surely, given the Chancellor may well announce 3% growth forecasts, ideas of boosting capital spending to get the economy moving have to be dumped. But Osborne will be setting traps as well as making announcements. Will Labour promise to match the cuts in spending announced for the next Parliament or will they give the tories the ammo for yet another "tax bombshell"? If they do promise to keep to the spending targets where will the cuts fall?

    Osborne has limited room for manouvre today but this most political of Chancellors will be trying very hard to set the context of the debate for the next election in the most favourable ground possible for the tories. So there will be lots of job half done, hard decisions to come, huge structural deficits left by the last government, the need to cut spending if taxes are not to rocket etc etc. Miliband needs to find a more coherent response to this than Balls has.

    I may be wrong but I don't think blaming the last govt when you have been in power for four years is wise. The public tend to think "erm, you've been here for what seems like an eternity, what have you been doing about it?"
    Have a word with yerself, mate. PM Milliband and COE Balls will still be blaming Cameron and co in 2019. Hell, your gang still try and pin the blame on Thatcher!
    Some Labourites do - they are wrong to do so...
    What about Milliband and Balls in 2019, will they still be blaming Cameron and Osborne?

    Perhaps - Ozzy's record on the debt and deficit is lousy but, by then, they should be standing on their own two feet.
    What would you have cut more?
    Another Conservative who doesn't understand economics - the economy was growing in 2010. Ozzy's useless policies choked it off so we had three wasted years, making the deficit worse. Ozzy of course blamed it on snow.
    Why was it growin in 2010 and how sustainable was it?
  • Charles said:

    Why was it growin in 2010 and how sustainable was it?

    It was very sustainable - you just tax bankers' bonuses and bring in a mansion tax on mansions in Conservative constituencies worth more than £100k.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    edited March 2014

    Charles said:

    Why was it growin in 2010 and how sustainable was it?

    It was very sustainable - you just tax bankers' bonuses and bring in a mansion tax on mansions in Conservative constituencies worth more than £100k.

    I think you are underestimating the subtley of the scheme Mr Bond. There was no proposals to actually pay for the spending at all. Just borrow £156bn and spend it and watch that economy grow! What could go wrong?

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    TGOHF said:

    Patrick said:

    Grandiose said:

    Well it's two hours before the budget and the government isn't already engulfed in some storm or other. It's a start.

    I'm worried for good or ill, that the budget will get overshadowed by the start of world war III
    The impending collapse of China's credit / shadow banking system is going to dominate all other financial reporting in the coming months. Today is the calm before the real storm, especially in the Eurozone.
    Apart from cars - what do we sell to China ? (serious question)
    Pig come.

    http://tinyurl.com/l4oo47w
    Don't mock it. It's a fast growing and very profitable business!

    Genus made $37m profits in the last 6 months a large part of which is in their pig business
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited March 2014
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    How excited are all getting??

    Ozzie's rabbit is getting us all a quiver in our office...
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Why was it growin in 2010 and how sustainable was it?

    It was very sustainable - you just tax bankers' bonuses and bring in a mansion tax on mansions in Conservative constituencies worth more than £100k.

    I think you are underestimating the subtley of the scheme Mr Bond. There was no proposals to actually pay for the spending at all. Just borrow £156bn and spend it and watch that economy grow! What could go wrong?

    That's Bobanomics.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    How excited are all getting??

    Ozzie's rabbit is getting us all a quiver in our office...

    The bar is now set very high

    ""Will enjoy look of shock on faces of journalists," cabinet minister to FT. "Will show the coalition has not run out of steam." We'll see

    — Andrew Neil (@afneil) March 19, 2014"
  • How excited are all getting??

    Ozzie's rabbit is getting us all a quiver in our office...

    Apologies but this may cause need for copious amounts of mind bleach

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 33m

    Here's George Osborne's MASSIVE rabbit MT @TomChivers

    pic.twitter.com/SFCGLJT9kl

    'George's Rampant Rabbit to Stimulate UK G-Spot'
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    JonathanD said:

    How excited are all getting??

    Ozzie's rabbit is getting us all a quiver in our office...

    The bar is now set very high

    ""Will enjoy look of shock on faces of journalists," cabinet minister to FT. "Will show the coalition has not run out of steam." We'll see

    — Andrew Neil (@afneil) March 19, 2014"
    The ramping surely can't match the reality...
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Bad news for Ken C will be caught napping punters

    Ken Clarke in the gallery for the Budget so won't be caught napping on the front bench during Osborne's Budget speech
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    'Hard working singletons'

    :)
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549

    JonathanD said:

    How excited are all getting??

    Ozzie's rabbit is getting us all a quiver in our office...

    The bar is now set very high

    ""Will enjoy look of shock on faces of journalists," cabinet minister to FT. "Will show the coalition has not run out of steam." We'll see

    — Andrew Neil (@afneil) March 19, 2014"
    The ramping surely can't match the reality...
    The general mantra is under-promise and over-deliver for the best reaction. But in politics the desire to control the immediate narrative always seems to override that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    I'm on 'Energy Prices' at 2/1, and I sold 'Billions' on SPIN at 36.

    I missed 'Long Term Economic Plan' - that was a goody at 4/5 but is now 1/2

    What price "plebs"?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Charles said:

    BobaFett said:

    Financier said:

    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    DavidL said:

    One thing that might get greater prominence than usual if I am right about the budget being boring is the quality of the reply. Ball's reply to the Autumn statement was rightly panned as evidence that Labour had lost the argument on the economy fairly comprehensively.

    Can his boss do any better today? This is going to be the budget in this Parliament with the most good macroeconomic news. We will no doubt have references to the squeezed middle, falling real wages, wasted years etc etc but it will not be easy for Ed to sound like he has much constructive to say or an alternative vision going forward.

    Osborne has limited room for manouvre today but this most political of Chancellors will be trying very hard to set the context of the debate for the next election in the most favourable ground possible for the tories. So there will be lots of job half done, hard decisions to come, huge structural deficits left by the last government, the need to cut spending if taxes are not to rocket etc etc. Miliband needs to find a more coherent response to this than Balls has.

    I may be wrong but I don't think blaming the last govt when you have been in power for four years is wise. The public tend to think "erm, you've been here for what seems like an eternity, what have you been doing about it?"
    Have a word with yerself, mate. PM Milliband and COE Balls will still be blaming Cameron and co in 2019. Hell, your gang still try and pin the blame on Thatcher!
    Some Labourites do - they are wrong to do so...
    What about Milliband and Balls in 2019, will they still be blaming Cameron and Osborne?

    Perhaps - Ozzy's record on the debt and deficit is lousy but, by then, they should be standing on their own two feet.
    What would you have cut more?
    Another Conservative who doesn't understand economics - the economy was growing in 2010. Ozzy's useless policies choked it off so we had three wasted years, making the deficit worse. Ozzy of course blamed it on snow.
    Why was it growin in 2010 and how sustainable was it?
    What has been the growth in the US compared to the peak in 2008 ? and what has been the same "growth" in the UK ?

    Hint: For the UK, you would need a minus sign !
  • New Thread
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,536

    TGOHF said:

    He's not going to announce a flat rate income tax is he?

    Combined husband and wife tax allowance ? Good lefty baiting stuff..
    See that makes me nervous.

    George Osborne is responsible for the two largest and sustained changes in voting intentions in the last decade.

    The omnishables and his IHT plan that stopped the election that never was in 2007.
    I think he'll abolish higher rate tax bands, to be funded by cuts in NHS spending.

This discussion has been closed.