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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Budget betting : How long? What will he say? What colour tie? How many sips of water? etc
SportingIndex http://t.co/U2fOqryMuA budget spread betting pic.twitter.com/DvU3YWbYIi
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What will he say: globule
What colour tie: yellow
How many sips of water: 68,537
Keynes
Post Neo-Classical Endogenous Growth Theory
That would have an easy answer.
http://bit.ly/1l2qX2y
If he is being very witty he may wear this:
http://bit.ly/1fGwhR0
I am certain he will not be wearing this:
http://bit.ly/1j4eV4b
I believe they're popular with cowboys.
Let's see how that genius strategy works out for the Cyberbritnats.
Blue looks reasonable on WH, as does greater than 2.5 sips at 4/7. Osborne is a sipper I believe.
Also tempted by a cut in basic rate tax at WH; that could flatfoot Miliband nicely, and perhaps be paid for by reducing the threshold for higher rate tax.
What time does Ozzy stand up today?
From the south east. Mr Nabavi? He would usually want better odds.
44 pounds for a tie? Haway you doyle
HWF will feature many many times.
Tie: purple.
%age of PB.com articles in the next month about Scottish referendum: under 10
%age of comments on PB.com in the next month relating to Scottish referendum: 80+
Will this be the most boring year of PB.com comments we have ever had?
There is a double whammy in that we could both see the development of politics post independence AND be rid of these tiresome fraught squabbles on the subject of the referendum.
But will an independent Scotland’s elections be as interesting for betting purposes (or any other) as US Presidential elections?
Can his boss do any better today? This is going to be the budget in this Parliament with the most good macroeconomic news. We will no doubt have references to the squeezed middle, falling real wages, wasted years etc etc but it will not be easy for Ed to sound like he has much constructive to say or an alternative vision going forward.
Surely, given the Chancellor may well announce 3% growth forecasts, ideas of boosting capital spending to get the economy moving have to be dumped. But Osborne will be setting traps as well as making announcements. Will Labour promise to match the cuts in spending announced for the next Parliament or will they give the tories the ammo for yet another "tax bombshell"? If they do promise to keep to the spending targets where will the cuts fall?
Osborne has limited room for manouvre today but this most political of Chancellors will be trying very hard to set the context of the debate for the next election in the most favourable ground possible for the tories. So there will be lots of job half done, hard decisions to come, huge structural deficits left by the last government, the need to cut spending if taxes are not to rocket etc etc. Miliband needs to find a more coherent response to this than Balls has.
Because like the BBC Mike will block access to PB north of the border.
The response to the Budget is probably the toughest Parliamentary test for any LOTO as there's little or no possible preparation and it's one of those curiosities that the response is from the LOTO than the Shadow Chancellor.
It is a test of the working relationship between the Shadow Chancellor and his/her Leader that they have to formulate a response while the speech is still being made.
As someone else has remarked, Osborne is the archetypal political Chancellor and another aspect of the Budget is how to close down the response. I suspect Osborne's primary audience is behind him but he's also trying to trap those in front of him as well.
What I think Osborne will seek to do today is show that he has cut the structural deficit in half but half remains so that there is a compelling need for further cuts in public spending into the next Parliament. Whether that is ultimately right or wrong (I think it is right myself) it is exactly the territory that the tories will want to fight the next election on and Osborne will be doing his best to set this up today.
*checks date*
wtf?
Not that it matters anyway ... it's the media response that's important.
Russia has told the US that Western sanctions over the Crimea dispute are unacceptable, and has threatened "consequences".
The oil price has dropped into the $106 region. What will it rise to if Putin turns down the gas flow a bit (colder weekend coming up), just to illustrate what his consequences might be. Rememeber the mind and instincts of the ex-KGB man.
Is there any betting about Putin's next action/s. If he does act in this way, the budget debate (and forecasts) is almost irrelevant.
Bercow says he requested it for Benn's "service to the country", if that's the criteria, most full career armed forces, clergy, local shopkeepers, police, fireys, nurses, hell, even the Beast of Bolsover ought to be in with a shout of it.
Modern politicians are a sick joke, it's all a gaddamn vanity project. They need a serious reality check.
"The Spanish government’s continuing austerity measures are having an adverse effect on the country’s pig farmers, who have taken to extremes to protest at the closure of cogeneration plants, which had been benefiting the farming community.
Last month Madrid announced planned cuts to energy subsidies, which has seen the closure of all but one of the country’s 29 government subsidised cogeneration power plants and pushed farmers to the brink of bankruptcy.
The Wall Street Journal reports that one local farmer released a 2,000-gallon spray of pig urine and feces into a city fountain to protest the measures. Thousands of other farmers have for some years been using the plants, which used the heat from generating electricity to turn pig waste into dried fertilizer pellets.
The farmers are further boxed in as European regulations on groundwater cleanliness limit the volume of pig waste a farmer can dump on each acre of agricultural land. But as a result many farmers will lose out due to having to either reduce their herds or paying to ship the waste farther afield .
Under the banner of the National Association of Pig Livestock Producers on Tuesday, about 1,000 pig farmers and treatment-plant workers wearing pig masks took their complaints to the source, dumping hundreds of bottles of foul waste in front of the Energy Ministry in Madrid.
Prior to the plants existence, Spanish pig farmers used to dispose of their animals' urine and faeces by applying them as fertilizer to nearby fields. After the EU imposed limits on this practice, the Spanish government decided to subsidize power plants that also processed pig waste.
Such plants burn natural gas to generate electricity and use the heat that otherwise would go to waste to dry the excrement, which then gets compressed into lightweight pellets and sold as fertilizer. Such cogeneration plants received more than €300 million in subsidies in 2012, according to the Association for the Environmental Treatment of Pig Waste."
http://www.cospp.com/articles/2014/03/spanish-farmers-kicking-up-a-stink-over-government-closures.html
I just think you will find that only lefties tend to show that level of ruthlessness and focus on those they dislike. The banker's bonus tax being an obvious example.
This is important as it could well affect who will be the next commission president. Juncker for the EPP (Christian Democrats et al) or Schulz for the Socialists?
Voting Tory will not affect this battle, as the ECR have not put up a candidate.
Its OK, Labour are already ahead of the Tories on hammering benefit recipients
"Labour will be tougher than the Tories when it comes to slashing the benefits bill, Rachel Reeves, the new shadow work and pensions secretary, has insisted in her first interview since winning promotion"
http://www.onenewspage.co.uk/n/Politics/74w2qut9h/Labour-will-be-tougher-than-Tories-on-benefits.htm
That's the problem with having innumerate politicians in the the top ranks of modern parties (and I include PPE graduates). They ought to restrict COEs and their shadows to those who can manage add-ups and take-aways without their lips moving.
In the case of Brown, I'd have expected a senior civil servant to lead him away by the elbow and show him a picture. Perhaps they did and perhaps he just ignored it.
It can take time and considerable effort to change a country's course. Blaming this government for not doing it in four years, when the previous government did not manage it in 13 (and in some cases did not even try) can also appear ridiculous.
The 'omnishambles' budget was actually quite a good budget from the purely technical / financial / economic point of view. But it was a PR disaster. The 'pastie tax' angle while financially trivial was pure political poison.
I'm 100% certain that every tiny measure will have been scrutinised for the 'how can Labour hurt us with this' challenge. So....I'm expecting something that is broadly going to be hard to criticise and will for the most part get good press.
I hope you are right but fear you are wrong.
v funny.
What percentage of people do you think know who their candidate is?
Man U 3.25 on betfair to "qualify" for last 8 - decent price IMHO.
Choo choo!
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/simon-jenkins-this-hs2-makedo-is-all-about-getting-a-bad-job-done-9199487.html
I did a Buzzfeed - http://www.buzzfeed.com/jarry123/ten-quotes-on-welfare-that-show-the-tories-and-lab-ka7u - although if there is a way to make quizzes on Buzzfeed, I couldn't find it.
Personally, I think that after 4 years, a government should be taking it on the chin.
If Milliband and Balls aren't still blaming the previous government in 2019, I'd be pleasantly surprised. I don't expect to be, though. Let's face it, they hardly put their hands up immediately after, did they?
Be honest, you can't really expect politicians to behave in any other way, can you?
I'd expect a 2016 Budget given by Ed Balls to keep many of the themes of the Coalition including helping the poorest and he may even be bold enough to look at the threshold. There would be plenty of talk about closing loopholes and Russian oligarchs and the like which would be the cover for looking at mansion taxes.
An incoming Labour Government in 2015, just as Blair/Brown in 1997, would be all about reassurance, stability and continuity with the aim of keeping economic growth moving and managing the return to normal monetary policy.
What interests me is how easy Carney will find working with another Chancellor.
The economy was growing on public and private debt. Up with which the capital markets would not much longer have put.
I don't know, I was at Old Trafford on Sunday and they looked like they had lost all morale. Not even anger seemed to eminate from anyone at the performance ,mere acceptance
So what we have here are the expected (by me, on here) consequences of Labour's in-fighting over the HS2 project.
And the idea that the HS1<>HS2 link is vital for the project is ridiculous, for the reasons given previously.
http://www.londonreconnections.com/2009/crossrail-the-evening-standard-part-1-crossrail-the-white-elephant/
They may keep (in outline at least) to Tory plans for the first budget, or even two, but later ones will see them going for the electoral bribes that politicians are so keen on when it is not their money.
Look at their past records. I see no evidence they ave learnt any lessons.