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After the crucial Osborne endorsement Badenoch continues to soar – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,158
edited November 7 in General
imageAfter the crucial Osborne endorsement Badenoch continues to soar – politicalbetting.com

Shock: @George_Osborne for @KemiBadenoch pic.twitter.com/qQrrfBd88q

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  • First?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    edited October 25
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.

    There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.

    I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.

    Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
    Who knows ?
    Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.

    Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.

    And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case.
    A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there.
    https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
    They have less votes. That's why they are freaking out. :(
    FEWER votes.
    Less votes.

    If you want to fix Haiti, consider why the Dominican Republic is so different, maybe?

    Well, if you have 54 minutes these guys lay out some reasons (assuming they know their stuff).

    Why Haiti is Dying & the DR is Booming

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpWb3MTV9bg

    It was only 44 minutes on the difference between Yemen and Oman

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbHG-NrmEZI

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It sounds like a very good policy.

    New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.

    She rolled out the proposal at a rally in a blue-collar city in Pennsylvania. politico.com/news/2024/10/25…

    https://nitter.poast.org/hollyotterbein/status/1849776400284152096#m

    In a number of areas the mandatory degree has become a barrier.

    I mentioned before the issue of Afro-Caribbean’s in banking. Well guess which community is massively under represented in the degree’s? Not to mention White Working Class and a few other groups.

    Back in the day, the literal Barrow Boy route - start with fetch the tea on a desk, could end up a senior manger… This did something for diversity - no, it wasn’t much, but it was something.

    I work with a team of people of that background - all in their late forties. No more of them coming through now….
    Indeed, there are plenty of jobs with a degree 'requirement' which just seems like a status thing, especially when the people in the job currently do not have one! I've seen many job descriptions like that, where nothing in it seems to justify that requirement, yet it is inserted without any question whatsoever.

    Just make it desirable rather than a requirement and you immediately open the door to many others.
    It’s a policy designed by graduates to bolster their own self importance.

    Has there ever been a legal challenge from an applicant not considered for a job purely because they didn’t have a degree, but were suitable in all other respects?
    A good question, it feels weird not to have heard of such a thing - as arbitrary as the requirements might be, I guess employers may have wide latitude, even in the public sector?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    FPT, but I spent some time on the math, so it needs reposting:
    Nigelb said:

    This gives some insight into Putin's mindset (and Russian public opinion, such as it is).
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/22/high-russian-death-toll-fails-shift-opinion-ukraine-war

    Of course, the Russian dead and injured aren't from Moscow and St Petersburg. As seems always to be the case in Russia, it is the poorest provinces that are bearing the cost of the center's ambitions.

    But Russia doesn't have an unlimited supply of young men.

    In June, 98,600 people were born in Russia. So, rounding, we're talking about 49,000 male babies.

    They're losing 30,000 people per month - killed, captured and wounded - in Ukraine.

    If you compare this to the British losses on the Western Front in the first World World War, you're looking at around 40,000 male babies per month, against 20,000 casualties.

    So, in the First World War, the British were losing the equivalent of half a month's births on the battlefield. The Russians, in Ukraine, are at 60%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    Have seen a few rather strong anti-Badenoch comments out there from the Jenrick side (not that he represents a specific ideology), if she wins it will be interesting how much people come together, or if it will be lip service, with those upset keeping a foot in the Farage camp to keep her honest.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I spent some time on the math, so it needs reposting:

    Nigelb said:

    This gives some insight into Putin's mindset (and Russian public opinion, such as it is).
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/22/high-russian-death-toll-fails-shift-opinion-ukraine-war

    Of course, the Russian dead and injured aren't from Moscow and St Petersburg. As seems always to be the case in Russia, it is the poorest provinces that are bearing the cost of the center's ambitions.

    But Russia doesn't have an unlimited supply of young men.

    In June, 98,600 people were born in Russia. So, rounding, we're talking about 49,000 male babies.

    They're losing 30,000 people per month - killed, captured and wounded - in Ukraine.

    If you compare this to the British losses on the Western Front in the first World World War, you're looking at around 40,000 male babies per month, against 20,000 casualties.

    So, in the First World War, the British were losing the equivalent of half a month's births on the battlefield. The Russians, in Ukraine, are at 60%.
    Ukraine has similar demographics of course, from a smaller base, with people oversees to boot - which is probably why many are downbeat on their prospects in most offensive phases, now the Russians have seemingly ridden themselves of the highest amount of incomptence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    I doubt the Osborne endorsement makes much difference with members but confirms that after Cleverly was knocked out Badenoch is now the favourite of former Cameron and Sunak loyalists. See also endorsements from Hague and Gove for Badenoch (though she has also picked up support from IDS and Davis).

    All I can say is I didn't vote for her and at most expect her to be a bit better than Truss, helped by the fact being in opposition she doesn't straight away get to implement any plans. Not that I have seen many plans from her, it is Jenrick with the policies on new homes, lower immigration, lower taxes etc.

    Indeed the biggest winner from a Kemi win is probably Farage, an Electoral Calculus poll has a Badenoch led Tories just 1% ahead of Reform on 22% to 21%. So I expect champagne corks will pop at Reform Towers if she does win

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_hypopoll_20241017.html
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,930
    Osborne’s comments could have been written by many of our more erudite contributors. Is he a poster on here?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,186
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    I am finding the premature obituary writing of Harris’ presidential campaign from several quarters quite amusing.

    There’s an ultra close election coming up. The polling suggests it could go either way. But I cannot call it with any certainty whatsoever and a lot of journalists and commentators are going to have some serious egg on their faces if it’s President Harris in 12 days time.

    I'm not phased by the tight polling but this Nevada thing is bugging me. Ralston crunching the early data and reporting a significant swing to the GOP. That's a worry, not because of Nevada, which is only 6 votes, but that it might be saying something about the election as a whole.

    Just to keep everyone informed on my state of mind it is now cautiously optimistic having previously been quietly confident. If it changes again, either up or down, I'll be sure to post an update. But that's where I am right now. I'm very very optimistic but in a restrained and cagey way.
    Who knows ?
    Jon Ralston has already expounded on the uncertainties in forecasting this one.

    Party registration is not exactly predictive of vote, and we do know that Republicans who voted early in 2020 were more likely to switch Democrat than those who voted on the day (FWIW). Probably a small effect in Nevada - though it could be more significant in AZ.

    And more substantially, here's a thread setting out the don't panic case.
    A few quick thoughts on NV early vote, since I'm sensing an irrational Dem freakout taking place there.
    https://x.com/tbonier/status/1849622851801763885
    They have less votes. That's why they are freaking out. :(
    FEWER votes.
    Less votes.

    If you want to fix Haiti, consider why the Dominican Republic is so different, maybe?

    Well, if you have 54 minutes these guys lay out some reasons (assuming they know their stuff).

    Why Haiti is Dying & the DR is Booming

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpWb3MTV9bg

    It was only 44 minutes on the difference between Yemen and Oman

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbHG-NrmEZI

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It sounds like a very good policy.

    New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.

    She rolled out the proposal at a rally in a blue-collar city in Pennsylvania. politico.com/news/2024/10/25…

    https://nitter.poast.org/hollyotterbein/status/1849776400284152096#m

    In a number of areas the mandatory degree has become a barrier.

    I mentioned before the issue of Afro-Caribbean’s in banking. Well guess which community is massively under represented in the degree’s? Not to mention White Working Class and a few other groups.

    Back in the day, the literal Barrow Boy route - start with fetch the tea on a desk, could end up a senior manger… This did something for diversity - no, it wasn’t much, but it was something.

    I work with a team of people of that background - all in their late forties. No more of them coming through now….
    Indeed, there are plenty of jobs with a degree 'requirement' which just seems like a status thing, especially when the people in the job currently do not have one! I've seen many job descriptions like that, where nothing in it seems to justify that requirement, yet it is inserted without any question whatsoever.

    Just make it desirable rather than a requirement and you immediately open the door to many others.
    It’s a policy designed by graduates to bolster their own self importance.

    Has there ever been a legal challenge from an applicant not considered for a job purely because they didn’t have a degree, but were suitable in all other respects?
    A good question, it feels weird not to have heard of such a thing - as arbitrary as the requirements might be, I guess employers may have wide latitude, even in the public sector?
    The law is 100% degree’d
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It sounds like a very good policy.

    New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.

    She rolled out the proposal at a rally in a blue-collar city in Pennsylvania. politico.com/news/2024/10/25…

    https://nitter.poast.org/hollyotterbein/status/1849776400284152096#m

    In a number of areas the mandatory degree has become a barrier.

    I mentioned before the issue of Afro-Caribbean’s in banking. Well guess which community is massively under represented in the degree’s? Not to mention White Working Class and a few other groups.

    Back in the day, the literal Barrow Boy route - start with fetch the tea on a desk, could end up a senior manger… This did something for diversity - no, it wasn’t much, but it was something.

    I work with a team of people of that background - all in their late forties. No more of them coming through now….
    Indeed, there are plenty of jobs with a degree 'requirement' which just seems like a status thing, especially when the people in the job currently do not have one! I've seen many job descriptions like that, where nothing in it seems to justify that requirement, yet it is inserted without any question whatsoever.

    Just make it desirable rather than a requirement and you immediately open the door to many others.
    I have for a while being absolutely convinced that the graduatisation of the police is a deliberate and malicious attempt to cut out the main demographic, who would have been the bulk of applicants. White working class young men.
    Even if it is not deliberate or malicious indirect indirect discrimination is an accepted thing, so would presumably apply.

    It's just a silly route to go down, eventually everyone will need to get second degrees to distinguish themselves (when I was at University Canadian students claimed this was already the case for them). When I was at school there was a big push around different types of intelligence, and how not everyone had the kind of academic style intelligence and that was ok, but such policies argue pretty strongly it is not ok, when there is literally nothing else stopping someone from doing the job.

    Maybe I should have done my masters on this topic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    I see Kemi is currently shadow secretary of state for housing, communities, and local government.

    So long as she is a big fan of loosening rules on house building and increasing housing numbers, building wind farms and resevoirs etc, and a fan of council unitarisation (but an end to bespoke, arbitrary regionalist devolution), then she could get my vote. If I had one.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,186
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It sounds like a very good policy.

    New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.

    She rolled out the proposal at a rally in a blue-collar city in Pennsylvania. politico.com/news/2024/10/25…

    https://nitter.poast.org/hollyotterbein/status/1849776400284152096#m

    In a number of areas the mandatory degree has become a barrier.

    I mentioned before the issue of Afro-Caribbean’s in banking. Well guess which community is massively under represented in the degree’s? Not to mention White Working Class and a few other groups.

    Back in the day, the literal Barrow Boy route - start with fetch the tea on a desk, could end up a senior manger… This did something for diversity - no, it wasn’t much, but it was something.

    I work with a team of people of that background - all in their late forties. No more of them coming through now….
    Indeed, there are plenty of jobs with a degree 'requirement' which just seems like a status thing, especially when the people in the job currently do not have one! I've seen many job descriptions like that, where nothing in it seems to justify that requirement, yet it is inserted without any question whatsoever.

    Just make it desirable rather than a requirement and you immediately open the door to many others.
    I have for a while being absolutely convinced that the graduatisation of the police is a deliberate and malicious attempt to cut out the main demographic, who would have been the bulk of applicants. White working class young men.
    Even if it is not deliberate or malicious indirect indirect discrimination is an accepted thing, so would presumably apply.

    It's just a silly route to go down, eventually everyone will need to get second degrees to distinguish themselves (when I was at University Canadian students claimed this was already the case for them). When I was at school there was a big push around different types of intelligence, and how not everyone had the kind of academic style intelligence and that was ok, but such policies argue pretty strongly it is not ok, when there is literally nothing else stopping someone from doing the job.

    Maybe I should have done my masters on this topic.
    When I finished uni in 94, not doing a Masters was becoming a bit second rate.

    Now it is virtually obligatory - my eldest and her friends are planning it. And they are weeks into their first year.

    Wonder how long before a PhD is mandatory for a good job?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It sounds like a very good policy.

    New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.

    She rolled out the proposal at a rally in a blue-collar city in Pennsylvania. politico.com/news/2024/10/25…

    https://nitter.poast.org/hollyotterbein/status/1849776400284152096#m

    In a number of areas the mandatory degree has become a barrier.

    I mentioned before the issue of Afro-Caribbean’s in banking. Well guess which community is massively under represented in the degree’s? Not to mention White Working Class and a few other groups.

    Back in the day, the literal Barrow Boy route - start with fetch the tea on a desk, could end up a senior manger… This did something for diversity - no, it wasn’t much, but it was something.

    I work with a team of people of that background - all in their late forties. No more of them coming through now….
    Indeed, there are plenty of jobs with a degree 'requirement' which just seems like a status thing, especially when the people in the job currently do not have one! I've seen many job descriptions like that, where nothing in it seems to justify that requirement, yet it is inserted without any question whatsoever.

    Just make it desirable rather than a requirement and you immediately open the door to many others.
    I have for a while being absolutely convinced that the graduatisation of the police is a deliberate and malicious attempt to cut out the main demographic, who would have been the bulk of applicants. White working class young men.
    Even if it is not deliberate or malicious indirect indirect discrimination is an accepted thing, so would presumably apply.

    It's just a silly route to go down, eventually everyone will need to get second degrees to distinguish themselves (when I was at University Canadian students claimed this was already the case for them). When I was at school there was a big push around different types of intelligence, and how not everyone had the kind of academic style intelligence and that was ok, but such policies argue pretty strongly it is not ok, when there is literally nothing else stopping someone from doing the job.

    Maybe I should have done my masters on this topic.
    Wonder how long before a PhD is mandatory for a good job?
    It's virtually mandatory to post on PB!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,391

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It sounds like a very good policy.

    New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.

    She rolled out the proposal at a rally in a blue-collar city in Pennsylvania. politico.com/news/2024/10/25…

    https://nitter.poast.org/hollyotterbein/status/1849776400284152096#m

    In a number of areas the mandatory degree has become a barrier.

    I mentioned before the issue of Afro-Caribbean’s in banking. Well guess which community is massively under represented in the degree’s? Not to mention White Working Class and a few other groups.

    Back in the day, the literal Barrow Boy route - start with fetch the tea on a desk, could end up a senior manger… This did something for diversity - no, it wasn’t much, but it was something.

    I work with a team of people of that background - all in their late forties. No more of them coming through now….
    Indeed, there are plenty of jobs with a degree 'requirement' which just seems like a status thing, especially when the people in the job currently do not have one! I've seen many job descriptions like that, where nothing in it seems to justify that requirement, yet it is inserted without any question whatsoever.

    Just make it desirable rather than a requirement and you immediately open the door to many others.
    I have for a while being absolutely convinced that the graduatisation of the police is a deliberate and malicious attempt to cut out the main demographic, who would have been the bulk of applicants. White working class young men.
    Even if it is not deliberate or malicious indirect indirect discrimination is an accepted thing, so would presumably apply.

    It's just a silly route to go down, eventually everyone will need to get second degrees to distinguish themselves (when I was at University Canadian students claimed this was already the case for them). When I was at school there was a big push around different types of intelligence, and how not everyone had the kind of academic style intelligence and that was ok, but such policies argue pretty strongly it is not ok, when there is literally nothing else stopping someone from doing the job.

    Maybe I should have done my masters on this topic.
    When I finished uni in 94, not doing a Masters was becoming a bit second rate.

    Now it is virtually obligatory - my eldest and her friends are planning it. And they are weeks into their first year.

    Wonder how long before a PhD is mandatory for a good job?
    I think it depends on the field. It used to be the case that some companies would rather take a graduate and mould them to the desired employee than someone with a PhD who may have stronger opinions etc.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I spent some time on the math, so it needs reposting:

    Nigelb said:

    This gives some insight into Putin's mindset (and Russian public opinion, such as it is).
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/22/high-russian-death-toll-fails-shift-opinion-ukraine-war

    Of course, the Russian dead and injured aren't from Moscow and St Petersburg. As seems always to be the case in Russia, it is the poorest provinces that are bearing the cost of the center's ambitions.

    But Russia doesn't have an unlimited supply of young men.

    In June, 98,600 people were born in Russia. So, rounding, we're talking about 49,000 male babies.

    They're losing 30,000 people per month - killed, captured and wounded - in Ukraine.

    If you compare this to the British losses on the Western Front in the first World World War, you're looking at around 40,000 male babies per month, against 20,000 casualties.

    So, in the First World War, the British were losing the equivalent of half a month's births on the battlefield. The Russians, in Ukraine, are at 60%.
    Ukraine has similar demographics of course, from a smaller base, with people oversees to boot - which is probably why many are downbeat on their prospects in most offensive phases, now the Russians have seemingly ridden themselves of the highest amount of incomptence.
    Of course:

    But (a) you incur far fewer casualties as the defender than the attacker, and (b) if someone is attacking you, you will defend yourself to the death. It's rather different when you are the aggressor.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,096
    I think this one is at a point where if Kemi loses it will look like racism was a big factor even if it wasn't.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,738

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It sounds like a very good policy.

    New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.

    She rolled out the proposal at a rally in a blue-collar city in Pennsylvania. politico.com/news/2024/10/25…

    https://nitter.poast.org/hollyotterbein/status/1849776400284152096#m

    In a number of areas the mandatory degree has become a barrier.

    I mentioned before the issue of Afro-Caribbean’s in banking. Well guess which community is massively under represented in the degree’s? Not to mention White Working Class and a few other groups.

    Back in the day, the literal Barrow Boy route - start with fetch the tea on a desk, could end up a senior manger… This did something for diversity - no, it wasn’t much, but it was something.

    I work with a team of people of that background - all in their late forties. No more of them coming through now….
    Indeed, there are plenty of jobs with a degree 'requirement' which just seems like a status thing, especially when the people in the job currently do not have one! I've seen many job descriptions like that, where nothing in it seems to justify that requirement, yet it is inserted without any question whatsoever.

    Just make it desirable rather than a requirement and you immediately open the door to many others.
    It’s a policy designed by graduates to bolster their own self importance.

    Has there ever been a legal challenge from an applicant not considered for a job purely because they didn’t have a degree, but were suitable in all other respects?
    A good question, it feels weird not to have heard of such a thing - as arbitrary as the requirements might be, I guess employers may have wide latitude, even in the public sector?

    I don't think that sort of challenge could fly unless you could link it to a protected characteristic under the Equality Act as indirect discrimination - but that'd be a push. There might be some communities which have lower degree-holding rates than the public at large (or as other equivalent groups taking other characteristics into account) but applying that discrepancy to the case in hand could be hard.

    Otherwise, if employers want to put arbitrary conditions on applicants then they can.
  • kinabalu said:

    I think this one is at a point where if Kemi loses it will look like racism was a big factor even if it wasn't.

    Nah, it will be down to the fact Tory members love a Cambridge educated lawyer.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,576
    kinabalu said:

    I think this one is at a point where if Kemi loses it will look like racism was a big factor even if it wasn't.

    The Labour party hasn't ever really recovered morally from choosing Ed Miliband in 2010 instead of Diane Abbott.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited October 25
    kinabalu said:

    I think this one is at a point where if Kemi loses it will look like racism was a big factor even if it wasn't.

    UK voters just rejected a non white ethnic minority leader for a white male by a landslide. It would be courageous therefore for Tory members to pick a second successive non white leader for their party ahead of a white male but would certainly show they weren't racist
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It sounds like a very good policy.

    New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.

    She rolled out the proposal at a rally in a blue-collar city in Pennsylvania. politico.com/news/2024/10/25…

    https://nitter.poast.org/hollyotterbein/status/1849776400284152096#m

    In a number of areas the mandatory degree has become a barrier.

    I mentioned before the issue of Afro-Caribbean’s in banking. Well guess which community is massively under represented in the degree’s? Not to mention White Working Class and a few other groups.

    Back in the day, the literal Barrow Boy route - start with fetch the tea on a desk, could end up a senior manger… This did something for diversity - no, it wasn’t much, but it was something.

    I work with a team of people of that background - all in their late forties. No more of them coming through now….
    Indeed, there are plenty of jobs with a degree 'requirement' which just seems like a status thing, especially when the people in the job currently do not have one! I've seen many job descriptions like that, where nothing in it seems to justify that requirement, yet it is inserted without any question whatsoever.

    Just make it desirable rather than a requirement and you immediately open the door to many others.
    I have for a while being absolutely convinced that the graduatisation of the police is a deliberate and malicious attempt to cut out the main demographic, who would have been the bulk of applicants. White working class young men.
    Even if it is not deliberate or malicious indirect indirect discrimination is an accepted thing, so would presumably apply.

    It's just a silly route to go down, eventually everyone will need to get second degrees to distinguish themselves (when I was at University Canadian students claimed this was already the case for them). When I was at school there was a big push around different types of intelligence, and how not everyone had the kind of academic style intelligence and that was ok, but such policies argue pretty strongly it is not ok, when there is literally nothing else stopping someone from doing the job.

    Maybe I should have done my masters on this topic.
    Wonder how long before a PhD is mandatory for a good job?
    It's virtually mandatory to post on PB!
    I has no doctorate.

    #WorkingMan
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,409
    HYUFD said:

    I doubt the Osborne endorsement makes much difference with members but confirms that after Cleverly was knocked out Badenoch is now the favourite of former Cameron and Sunak loyalists. See also endorsements from Hague and Gove for Badenoch (though she has also picked up support from IDS and Davis).

    All I can say is I didn't vote for her and at most expect her to be a bit better than Truss, helped by the fact being in opposition she doesn't straight away get to implement any plans. Not that I have seen many plans from her, it is Jenrick with the policies on new homes, lower immigration, lower taxes etc.

    Indeed the biggest winner from a Kemi win is probably Farage, an Electoral Calculus poll has a Badenoch led Tories just 1% ahead of Reform on 22% to 21%. So I expect champagne corks will pop at Reform Towers if she does win

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_hypopoll_20241017.html

    Are you metaphorically chucking in the towel then? I wasn't sure she'd won but you speak to a lot more Tories than I do.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,409
    kinabalu said:

    I think this one is at a point where if Kemi loses it will look like racism was a big factor even if it wasn't.

    I agree - that's how some people will enjoy portraying it.
  • The far-right leader Tommy Robinson is being held in custody before a planned march of his supporters amid fears of a repeat of violence that erupted when he was imprisoned in 2018.

    Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, handed himself on Friday afternoon in to Folkestone police station where he was charged with failing to provide the PIN to his mobile phone under Schedule 7 of the Terrorism Act. He was bailed to appear in court next month, Kent police said. He was then remanded in custody under a high court direction, the force said.

    In July Robinson allegedly refused to give police access to his mobile phone when he was stopped under the Terrorism Act at the Channel tunnel. He had been bailed subject to returning to Folkestone police station.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/25/tommy-robinson-held-in-custody-ahead-of-far-right-march-in-london
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874

    The far-right leader Tommy Robinson is being held in custody before a planned march of his supporters amid fears of a repeat of violence that erupted when he was imprisoned in 2018.

    Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, handed himself on Friday afternoon in to Folkestone police station where he was charged with failing to provide the PIN to his mobile phone under Schedule 7 of the Terrorism Act. He was bailed to appear in court next month, Kent police said. He was then remanded in custody under a high court direction, the force said.

    In July Robinson allegedly refused to give police access to his mobile phone when he was stopped under the Terrorism Act at the Channel tunnel. He had been bailed subject to returning to Folkestone police station.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/25/tommy-robinson-held-in-custody-ahead-of-far-right-march-in-london


    Robinson now a UKIP backer too

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INKivrKqRg8
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,242

    Osborne’s comments could have been written by many of our more erudite contributors. Is he a poster on here?

    Surely he'd be too busy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,096

    kinabalu said:

    I think this one is at a point where if Kemi loses it will look like racism was a big factor even if it wasn't.

    The Labour party hasn't ever really recovered morally from choosing Ed Miliband in 2010 instead of Diane Abbott.
    Yes we could have revelled endlessly in the clear pure waters of opposition with Diane. It was a golden opportunity spurned. A sliding doors moment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt the Osborne endorsement makes much difference with members but confirms that after Cleverly was knocked out Badenoch is now the favourite of former Cameron and Sunak loyalists. See also endorsements from Hague and Gove for Badenoch (though she has also picked up support from IDS and Davis).

    All I can say is I didn't vote for her and at most expect her to be a bit better than Truss, helped by the fact being in opposition she doesn't straight away get to implement any plans. Not that I have seen many plans from her, it is Jenrick with the policies on new homes, lower immigration, lower taxes etc.

    Indeed the biggest winner from a Kemi win is probably Farage, an Electoral Calculus poll has a Badenoch led Tories just 1% ahead of Reform on 22% to 21%. So I expect champagne corks will pop at Reform Towers if she does win

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_hypopoll_20241017.html

    Are you metaphorically chucking in the towel then? I wasn't sure she'd won but you speak to a lot more Tories than I do.
    I still think it will be closer based on those I speak to but the ConHome survey this morning suggests Badenoch ahead.

    She certainly has much to do, at the moment she is polling worse than Rishi is

    https://conservativehome.com/2024/10/25/badenoch-maintains-her-lead-in-our-final-leadership-survey/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    kinabalu said:

    I think this one is at a point where if Kemi loses it will look like racism was a big factor even if it wasn't.

    Nah, it will be down to the fact Tory members love a Cambridge educated lawyer.
    More evidence of their being severely out of touch with the country.

    Not speaking for myself, obviously.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,576
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think this one is at a point where if Kemi loses it will look like racism was a big factor even if it wasn't.

    The Labour party hasn't ever really recovered morally from choosing Ed Miliband in 2010 instead of Diane Abbott.
    Yes we could have revelled endlessly in the clear pure waters of opposition with Diane. It was a golden opportunity spurned. A sliding doors moment.
    As opposed to the 14 years of opposition ending up with a Labour government committed to Brexit?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,096
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think this one is at a point where if Kemi loses it will look like racism was a big factor even if it wasn't.

    UK voters just rejected a non white ethnic minority leader for a white male by a landslide. It would be courageous therefore for Tory members to pick a second successive non white leader for their party ahead of a white male but would certainly show they weren't racist
    Well it would be a positive milestone and (again) one reached before Labour. As for "courageous" - you mean with regard to chasing RUK voters?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,810
    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,946
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I spent some time on the math, so it needs reposting:

    Nigelb said:

    This gives some insight into Putin's mindset (and Russian public opinion, such as it is).
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/22/high-russian-death-toll-fails-shift-opinion-ukraine-war

    Of course, the Russian dead and injured aren't from Moscow and St Petersburg. As seems always to be the case in Russia, it is the poorest provinces that are bearing the cost of the center's ambitions.

    But Russia doesn't have an unlimited supply of young men.

    In June, 98,600 people were born in Russia. So, rounding, we're talking about 49,000 male babies.

    They're losing 30,000 people per month - killed, captured and wounded - in Ukraine.

    If you compare this to the British losses on the Western Front in the first World World War, you're looking at around 40,000 male babies per month, against 20,000 casualties.

    So, in the First World War, the British were losing the equivalent of half a month's births on the battlefield. The Russians, in Ukraine, are at 60%.
    Ukraine has similar demographics of course, from a smaller base, with people oversees to boot - which is probably why many are downbeat on their prospects in most offensive phases, now the Russians have seemingly ridden themselves of the highest amount of incomptence.
    Of course:

    But (a) you incur far fewer casualties as the defender than the attacker, and (b) if someone is attacking you, you will defend yourself to the death. It's rather different when you are the aggressor.
    This seems to be arguing opposing points.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 882

    Osborne’s comments could have been written by many of our more erudite contributors. Is he a poster on here?

    On the same episode he made mention of the betting markets RE US election and I found myself wondering the same. If so, let me say hello George, big fan of the podcast!
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    HYUFD said:

    I doubt the Osborne endorsement makes much difference with members but confirms that after Cleverly was knocked out Badenoch is now the favourite of former Cameron and Sunak loyalists. See also endorsements from Hague and Gove for Badenoch (though she has also picked up support from IDS and Davis).

    All I can say is I didn't vote for her and at most expect her to be a bit better than Truss, helped by the fact being in opposition she doesn't straight away get to implement any plans. Not that I have seen many plans from her, it is Jenrick with the policies on new homes, lower immigration, lower taxes etc.

    Indeed the biggest winner from a Kemi win is probably Farage, an Electoral Calculus poll has a Badenoch led Tories just 1% ahead of Reform on 22% to 21%. So I expect champagne corks will pop at Reform Towers if she does win

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_hypopoll_20241017.html

    Indeed, wonder how long it will take the membership to realise they've voted for a continuity candidate.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,576

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    She would be well-placed to oppose the government making concessions on reparations.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think this one is at a point where if Kemi loses it will look like racism was a big factor even if it wasn't.

    UK voters just rejected a non white ethnic minority leader for a white male by a landslide. It would be courageous therefore for Tory members to pick a second successive non white leader for their party ahead of a white male but would certainly show they weren't racist
    Surely it would only be courageous if the reason the public rejected him was because he was an ethnic minority?

    Though history would suggest bland white male lawyer is a winning combination.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,096

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think this one is at a point where if Kemi loses it will look like racism was a big factor even if it wasn't.

    The Labour party hasn't ever really recovered morally from choosing Ed Miliband in 2010 instead of Diane Abbott.
    Yes we could have revelled endlessly in the clear pure waters of opposition with Diane. It was a golden opportunity spurned. A sliding doors moment.
    As opposed to the 14 years of opposition ending up with a Labour government committed to Brexit?
    Point is, we're in power now and that is hard grubby work. We could have avoided it with different choices on leaders and messaging and policies.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,946

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think this one is at a point where if Kemi loses it will look like racism was a big factor even if it wasn't.

    The Labour party hasn't ever really recovered morally from choosing Ed Miliband in 2010 instead of Diane Abbott.
    Yes we could have revelled endlessly in the clear pure waters of opposition with Diane. It was a golden opportunity spurned. A sliding doors moment.
    As opposed to the 14 years of opposition ending up with a Labour government committed to Brexit?
    Lab supporting Brexit now that they have a huge stonking majority represents, for me, their biggest failing. Parties are supposed to lead, not be scared of their electorate. If they really were a party of committed beliefs they would a) have begun to voice concerns about Brexit during the campaign, so what they'd have lost 20 seats; and b) now begin to dismantle it in earnest.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,186

    The far-right leader Tommy Robinson is being held in custody before a planned march of his supporters amid fears of a repeat of violence that erupted when he was imprisoned in 2018.

    Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, handed himself on Friday afternoon in to Folkestone police station where he was charged with failing to provide the PIN to his mobile phone under Schedule 7 of the Terrorism Act. He was bailed to appear in court next month, Kent police said. He was then remanded in custody under a high court direction, the force said.

    In July Robinson allegedly refused to give police access to his mobile phone when he was stopped under the Terrorism Act at the Channel tunnel. He had been bailed subject to returning to Folkestone police station.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/25/tommy-robinson-held-in-custody-ahead-of-far-right-march-in-london

    Dumb as a box of hammers.

    Even the stupid now know that, if you are a ad guy, when you cross as border, you back your phone up to one cloud account. Then sync it with another.

    So when the police/border types demand to look on your phone, they get a list of messages to your mum about which flowers to get her for Mother’s Day.

    Then, when you are across, you resync with your Evul Backup.

    The clever versions of this are very devious. There’s a hacked version of Android, that opens different profiles with different passcodes. For example.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 494

    The far-right leader Tommy Robinson is being held in custody before a planned march of his supporters amid fears of a repeat of violence that erupted when he was imprisoned in 2018.

    Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, handed himself on Friday afternoon in to Folkestone police station where he was charged with failing to provide the PIN to his mobile phone under Schedule 7 of the Terrorism Act. He was bailed to appear in court next month, Kent police said. He was then remanded in custody under a high court direction, the force said.

    In July Robinson allegedly refused to give police access to his mobile phone when he was stopped under the Terrorism Act at the Channel tunnel. He had been bailed subject to returning to Folkestone police station.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/25/tommy-robinson-held-in-custody-ahead-of-far-right-march-in-london

    Hasn't his passport been cancelled yet?
    Missing a trick, UK could rescind his citizenship then Eire could have investigated whether he'd made a fraudulent application for Irish citizenship.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,576
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think this one is at a point where if Kemi loses it will look like racism was a big factor even if it wasn't.

    The Labour party hasn't ever really recovered morally from choosing Ed Miliband in 2010 instead of Diane Abbott.
    Yes we could have revelled endlessly in the clear pure waters of opposition with Diane. It was a golden opportunity spurned. A sliding doors moment.
    As opposed to the 14 years of opposition ending up with a Labour government committed to Brexit?
    Point is, we're in power now and that is hard grubby work. We could have avoided it with different choices on leaders and messaging and policies.
    Abbott as leader in 2010 would probably have meant no Corbyn and centrist leadership from 2015. Maybe with that timeline there would have been no Brexit.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,096
    edited October 25

    kinabalu said:

    I think this one is at a point where if Kemi loses it will look like racism was a big factor even if it wasn't.

    I agree - that's how some people will enjoy portraying it.
    Oh yes very much so. But if the betting and the vibes are correct it looks like something we will be denied.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    edited October 25

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne wanting a fashionable leader of their party to talk about at Kensington dinner parties does she actually appeal to?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,808

    The far-right leader Tommy Robinson is being held in custody before a planned march of his supporters amid fears of a repeat of violence that erupted when he was imprisoned in 2018.

    Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, handed himself on Friday afternoon in to Folkestone police station where he was charged with failing to provide the PIN to his mobile phone under Schedule 7 of the Terrorism Act. He was bailed to appear in court next month, Kent police said. He was then remanded in custody under a high court direction, the force said.

    In July Robinson allegedly refused to give police access to his mobile phone when he was stopped under the Terrorism Act at the Channel tunnel. He had been bailed subject to returning to Folkestone police station.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/25/tommy-robinson-held-in-custody-ahead-of-far-right-march-in-london

    Dumb as a box of hammers.

    Even the stupid now know that, if you are a ad guy, when you cross as border, you back your phone up to one cloud account. Then sync it with another.

    So when the police/border types demand to look on your phone, they get a list of messages to your mum about which flowers to get her for Mother’s Day.

    Then, when you are across, you resync with your Evul Backup.

    The clever versions of this are very devious. There’s a hacked version of Android, that opens different profiles with different passcodes. For example.
    Phew. So can I keep my shameful pb posting history a secret after all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch is a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne does she actually appeal to?
    I think the best option for the Tories is to somehow heal the rift with voters they have lost to Reform first, without being too obnoxious about it to put too many others off by being generally credible and able to exploit opportunities the PM will provide them. They can then pivot to a wider non-Tory audience later.

    Which candidate would come closest to being able to do that? I have no idea, but is leaving the ECHR really the only thing Reform voters care about? The Tories cannot do anything about immigration for now anyway, so I'd have thought they could afford to be less specific on that subject so long as they appear better than Labour.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,344
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I spent some time on the math, so it needs reposting:

    Nigelb said:

    This gives some insight into Putin's mindset (and Russian public opinion, such as it is).
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/22/high-russian-death-toll-fails-shift-opinion-ukraine-war

    Of course, the Russian dead and injured aren't from Moscow and St Petersburg. As seems always to be the case in Russia, it is the poorest provinces that are bearing the cost of the center's ambitions.

    But Russia doesn't have an unlimited supply of young men.

    In June, 98,600 people were born in Russia. So, rounding, we're talking about 49,000 male babies.

    They're losing 30,000 people per month - killed, captured and wounded - in Ukraine.

    If you compare this to the British losses on the Western Front in the first World World War, you're looking at around 40,000 male babies per month, against 20,000 casualties.

    So, in the First World War, the British were losing the equivalent of half a month's births on the battlefield. The Russians, in Ukraine, are at 60%.
    Ukraine has similar demographics of course, from a smaller base, with people oversees to boot - which is probably why many are downbeat on their prospects in most offensive phases, now the Russians have seemingly ridden themselves of the highest amount of incomptence.
    One of the main reasons that Ukraine has been pushed back a little this year, and suffered bad enough casualties that their only offensive was catching the Russians on the hop in Kursk, is that they've been fighting with a major imbalance in artillery ammunition. Just as in WWI, the majority of casualties have been caused by artillery.

    If Ukraine can be supplied with greater quantities of ranged ammunition - they've been asking for funding for their domestic drone industry for example - then they can reverse the imbalance in ranged weapons to their advantage. They can destroy Russian munitions before they reach the battlefield, destroy more Russian artillery pieces, and inflict casualties on Russian infantry at a greater distance - reducing their own casualty rate at the same time.

    That's the route to victory that also reduces the damage to the current generation of young Ukrainians.

    Any damage they can be done to Russian war industry by making India and other countries a better offer to persuade them to prevent supply of components to Russia would also greatly help.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,810
    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne wanting a fashionable leader of their party to talk about at Kensington dinner parties does she actually appeal to?
    I might vote for her.

    I’m not saying I definitely will, mind. Just that she has the potential to bring me back. A lot will depend on how Labour are doing though.

    I can say with absolute certainty that I could not vote for Robert Jenrick.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,338
    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne does she actually appeal to?
    Jenrick is a grifter, who says whatever he thinks his audience wish to hear.

    SKS is currently shitting the bed to such a degree that any halfway competent Conservative leader can expect to make gains. SKS is a poor man’s Harold Wilson.

    We’ll see if Badenoch is halfway competent. If she isn’t she can be replaced.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,659

    The far-right leader Tommy Robinson is being held in custody before a planned march of his supporters amid fears of a repeat of violence that erupted when he was imprisoned in 2018.

    Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, handed himself on Friday afternoon in to Folkestone police station where he was charged with failing to provide the PIN to his mobile phone under Schedule 7 of the Terrorism Act. He was bailed to appear in court next month, Kent police said. He was then remanded in custody under a high court direction, the force said.

    In July Robinson allegedly refused to give police access to his mobile phone when he was stopped under the Terrorism Act at the Channel tunnel. He had been bailed subject to returning to Folkestone police station.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/25/tommy-robinson-held-in-custody-ahead-of-far-right-march-in-london

    Dumb as a box of hammers.

    Even the stupid now know that, if you are a ad guy, when you cross as border, you back your phone up to one cloud account. Then sync it with another.

    So when the police/border types demand to look on your phone, they get a list of messages to your mum about which flowers to get her for Mother’s Day.

    Then, when you are across, you resync with your Evul Backup.

    The clever versions of this are very devious. There’s a hacked version of Android, that opens different profiles with different passcodes. For example.
    I'd assume the phone and all the data on it compromised, pin or not.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,545
    This is fairly shocking; perhaps more so than the French rapist case. He targeted 3,500 children:

    "Abuser in 'UK's largest catfishing case' jailed for life over girl's manslaughter"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cx245q4nyyet
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,186

    The far-right leader Tommy Robinson is being held in custody before a planned march of his supporters amid fears of a repeat of violence that erupted when he was imprisoned in 2018.

    Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, handed himself on Friday afternoon in to Folkestone police station where he was charged with failing to provide the PIN to his mobile phone under Schedule 7 of the Terrorism Act. He was bailed to appear in court next month, Kent police said. He was then remanded in custody under a high court direction, the force said.

    In July Robinson allegedly refused to give police access to his mobile phone when he was stopped under the Terrorism Act at the Channel tunnel. He had been bailed subject to returning to Folkestone police station.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/25/tommy-robinson-held-in-custody-ahead-of-far-right-march-in-london

    Dumb as a box of hammers.

    Even the stupid now know that, if you are a bad guy, when you cross as border, you back your phone up to one cloud account. Then sync it with another.

    So when the police/border types demand to look on your phone, they get a list of messages to your mum about which flowers to get her for Mother’s Day.

    Then, when you are across, you resync with your Evul Backup.

    The clever versions of this are very devious. There’s a hacked version of Android, that opens different profiles with different passcodes. For example.
    Phew. So can I keep my shameful pb posting history a secret after all.
    Indeed.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,808
    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne wanting a fashionable leader of their party to talk about at Kensington dinner parties does she actually appeal to?
    That is a fair point. And Jenrick is just playing Alan B'Stard and there are a few people who will vote for a bit of 80s nostalgia.

    In reality neither are the answer and will be gone within 3 years. The battle is Nigel v Bozo and either could be PM by 2028.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited October 25
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne does she actually appeal to?
    Jenrick is a grifter, who says whatever he thinks his audience wish to hear.

    SKS is currently shitting the bed to such a degree that any halfway competent Conservative leader can expect to make gains. SKS is a poor man’s Harold Wilson.

    We’ll see if Badenoch is halfway competent. If she isn’t she can be replaced.
    Starmer is shitting the bed to such a degree that Labour are leading the polls by a clear margin after weeks of doing unpopular stuff. I’ll be excited to see how they do when he stops shitting the bed!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,186

    The far-right leader Tommy Robinson is being held in custody before a planned march of his supporters amid fears of a repeat of violence that erupted when he was imprisoned in 2018.

    Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, handed himself on Friday afternoon in to Folkestone police station where he was charged with failing to provide the PIN to his mobile phone under Schedule 7 of the Terrorism Act. He was bailed to appear in court next month, Kent police said. He was then remanded in custody under a high court direction, the force said.

    In July Robinson allegedly refused to give police access to his mobile phone when he was stopped under the Terrorism Act at the Channel tunnel. He had been bailed subject to returning to Folkestone police station.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/25/tommy-robinson-held-in-custody-ahead-of-far-right-march-in-london

    Dumb as a box of hammers.

    Even the stupid now know that, if you are a ad guy, when you cross as border, you back your phone up to one cloud account. Then sync it with another.

    So when the police/border types demand to look on your phone, they get a list of messages to your mum about which flowers to get her for Mother’s Day.

    Then, when you are across, you resync with your Evul Backup.

    The clever versions of this are very devious. There’s a hacked version of Android, that opens different profiles with different passcodes. For example.
    I'd assume the phone and all the data on it compromised, pin or not.
    Which is why the really paranoid cross borders etc with a "burner" phone. Which always has the innocuous history on it.

    They don't actually use it for anything.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,808

    The far-right leader Tommy Robinson is being held in custody before a planned march of his supporters amid fears of a repeat of violence that erupted when he was imprisoned in 2018.

    Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, handed himself on Friday afternoon in to Folkestone police station where he was charged with failing to provide the PIN to his mobile phone under Schedule 7 of the Terrorism Act. He was bailed to appear in court next month, Kent police said. He was then remanded in custody under a high court direction, the force said.

    In July Robinson allegedly refused to give police access to his mobile phone when he was stopped under the Terrorism Act at the Channel tunnel. He had been bailed subject to returning to Folkestone police station.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/25/tommy-robinson-held-in-custody-ahead-of-far-right-march-in-london

    Dumb as a box of hammers.

    Even the stupid now know that, if you are a bad guy, when you cross as border, you back your phone up to one cloud account. Then sync it with another.

    So when the police/border types demand to look on your phone, they get a list of messages to your mum about which flowers to get her for Mother’s Day.

    Then, when you are across, you resync with your Evul Backup.

    The clever versions of this are very devious. There’s a hacked version of Android, that opens different profiles with different passcodes. For example.
    Phew. So can I keep my shameful pb posting history a secret after all.
    Indeed.
    Do pb-ers visiting USA put down pb.com as a social media platform on their ESTAs?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,545

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I spent some time on the math, so it needs reposting:

    Nigelb said:

    This gives some insight into Putin's mindset (and Russian public opinion, such as it is).
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/22/high-russian-death-toll-fails-shift-opinion-ukraine-war

    Of course, the Russian dead and injured aren't from Moscow and St Petersburg. As seems always to be the case in Russia, it is the poorest provinces that are bearing the cost of the center's ambitions.

    But Russia doesn't have an unlimited supply of young men.

    In June, 98,600 people were born in Russia. So, rounding, we're talking about 49,000 male babies.

    They're losing 30,000 people per month - killed, captured and wounded - in Ukraine.

    If you compare this to the British losses on the Western Front in the first World World War, you're looking at around 40,000 male babies per month, against 20,000 casualties.

    So, in the First World War, the British were losing the equivalent of half a month's births on the battlefield. The Russians, in Ukraine, are at 60%.
    Ukraine has similar demographics of course, from a smaller base, with people oversees to boot - which is probably why many are downbeat on their prospects in most offensive phases, now the Russians have seemingly ridden themselves of the highest amount of incomptence.
    One of the main reasons that Ukraine has been pushed back a little this year, and suffered bad enough casualties that their only offensive was catching the Russians on the hop in Kursk, is that they've been fighting with a major imbalance in artillery ammunition. Just as in WWI, the majority of casualties have been caused by artillery.

    If Ukraine can be supplied with greater quantities of ranged ammunition - they've been asking for funding for their domestic drone industry for example - then they can reverse the imbalance in ranged weapons to their advantage. They can destroy Russian munitions before they reach the battlefield, destroy more Russian artillery pieces, and inflict casualties on Russian infantry at a greater distance - reducing their own casualty rate at the same time.

    That's the route to victory that also reduces the damage to the current generation of young Ukrainians.

    Any damage they can be done to Russian war industry by making India and other countries a better offer to persuade them to prevent supply of components to Russia would also greatly help.
    Recent reports are that Ukraine's artillery disadvantage is down from 1:7 earlier in the year to 1:2; in other words, for every shell Ukraine lobs, Russia lobs two. But Ukraine's increasingly western artillery weapons tend to be more accurate than Russia's, and Russia also has some fairly flakey North Korean shells.

    Ukrainian artillery shell hunger may not be over; but if it is not, then Russia is also famished.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,096
    edited October 25

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think this one is at a point where if Kemi loses it will look like racism was a big factor even if it wasn't.

    The Labour party hasn't ever really recovered morally from choosing Ed Miliband in 2010 instead of Diane Abbott.
    Yes we could have revelled endlessly in the clear pure waters of opposition with Diane. It was a golden opportunity spurned. A sliding doors moment.
    As opposed to the 14 years of opposition ending up with a Labour government committed to Brexit?
    Point is, we're in power now and that is hard grubby work. We could have avoided it with different choices on leaders and messaging and policies.
    Abbott as leader in 2010 would probably have meant no Corbyn and centrist leadership from 2015. Maybe with that timeline there would have been no Brexit.
    With hindsight it all feels a bit inevitable to me, the Brexit. It could have happened later than it did but it was coming. And tbh, looking at certain other western countries, inc the biggest one, if Brexit ends up as the peak of our xenophobic national populist nonsense I'd take that.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne wanting a fashionable leader of their party to talk about at Kensington dinner parties does she actually appeal to?
    Fair points, well made.

    I think it’s entirely possible that Badenoch could actually surprise on the downside - which would be some feat given how utterly useless she was as a government minister.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540

    The far-right leader Tommy Robinson is being held in custody before a planned march of his supporters amid fears of a repeat of violence that erupted when he was imprisoned in 2018.

    Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, handed himself on Friday afternoon in to Folkestone police station where he was charged with failing to provide the PIN to his mobile phone under Schedule 7 of the Terrorism Act. He was bailed to appear in court next month, Kent police said. He was then remanded in custody under a high court direction, the force said.

    In July Robinson allegedly refused to give police access to his mobile phone when he was stopped under the Terrorism Act at the Channel tunnel. He had been bailed subject to returning to Folkestone police station.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/25/tommy-robinson-held-in-custody-ahead-of-far-right-march-in-london

    Dumb as a box of hammers.

    Even the stupid now know that, if you are a bad guy, when you cross as border, you back your phone up to one cloud account. Then sync it with another.

    So when the police/border types demand to look on your phone, they get a list of messages to your mum about which flowers to get her for Mother’s Day.

    Then, when you are across, you resync with your Evul Backup.

    The clever versions of this are very devious. There’s a hacked version of Android, that opens different profiles with different passcodes. For example.
    Phew. So can I keep my shameful pb posting history a secret after all.
    Indeed.
    Do pb-ers visiting USA put down pb.com as a social media platform on their ESTAs?
    I didn't. It's a bit 1984 that you have to put social media platforms on the list.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362

    This is fairly shocking; perhaps more so than the French rapist case. He targeted 3,500 children:

    "Abuser in 'UK's largest catfishing case' jailed for life over girl's manslaughter"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cx245q4nyyet

    Hopefully when he finishes his sentence here he will be extradited to other countries to stand trial there for his crimes.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,540
    New from John Gray.

    "The implosion of centrism has left Labour in unmapped territory
    The world the party expected to join when it came to power no longer exists."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/10/implosion-centrism-leaves-labour-unmapped-territory
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Andy_JS said:

    The far-right leader Tommy Robinson is being held in custody before a planned march of his supporters amid fears of a repeat of violence that erupted when he was imprisoned in 2018.

    Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, handed himself on Friday afternoon in to Folkestone police station where he was charged with failing to provide the PIN to his mobile phone under Schedule 7 of the Terrorism Act. He was bailed to appear in court next month, Kent police said. He was then remanded in custody under a high court direction, the force said.

    In July Robinson allegedly refused to give police access to his mobile phone when he was stopped under the Terrorism Act at the Channel tunnel. He had been bailed subject to returning to Folkestone police station.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/25/tommy-robinson-held-in-custody-ahead-of-far-right-march-in-london

    Dumb as a box of hammers.

    Even the stupid now know that, if you are a bad guy, when you cross as border, you back your phone up to one cloud account. Then sync it with another.

    So when the police/border types demand to look on your phone, they get a list of messages to your mum about which flowers to get her for Mother’s Day.

    Then, when you are across, you resync with your Evul Backup.

    The clever versions of this are very devious. There’s a hacked version of Android, that opens different profiles with different passcodes. For example.
    Phew. So can I keep my shameful pb posting history a secret after all.
    Indeed.
    Do pb-ers visiting USA put down pb.com as a social media platform on their ESTAs?
    I didn't. It's a bit 1984 that you have to put social media platforms on the list.
    My mum was shocked and stunned when the beastly Americans confiscated a sealed packet of English biscuits from her following a transatlantic flight. She insisted on complaining in a very polite but stern English manner, which unsurprisingly just led to an even longer stay in the arrivals holding area.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,409
    edited October 25
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt the Osborne endorsement makes much difference with members but confirms that after Cleverly was knocked out Badenoch is now the favourite of former Cameron and Sunak loyalists. See also endorsements from Hague and Gove for Badenoch (though she has also picked up support from IDS and Davis).

    All I can say is I didn't vote for her and at most expect her to be a bit better than Truss, helped by the fact being in opposition she doesn't straight away get to implement any plans. Not that I have seen many plans from her, it is Jenrick with the policies on new homes, lower immigration, lower taxes etc.

    Indeed the biggest winner from a Kemi win is probably Farage, an Electoral Calculus poll has a Badenoch led Tories just 1% ahead of Reform on 22% to 21%. So I expect champagne corks will pop at Reform Towers if she does win

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_hypopoll_20241017.html

    Are you metaphorically chucking in the towel then? I wasn't sure she'd won but you speak to a lot more Tories than I do.
    I still think it will be closer based on those I speak to but the ConHome survey this morning suggests Badenoch ahead.

    She certainly has much to do, at the moment she is polling worse than Rishi is

    https://conservativehome.com/2024/10/25/badenoch-maintains-her-lead-in-our-final-leadership-survey/
    Worth a cheeky few quid on Jenrick or pretty much a done deal just closer than the survey suggests?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,409

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne does she actually appeal to?
    Jenrick is a grifter, who says whatever he thinks his audience wish to hear.

    SKS is currently shitting the bed to such a degree that any halfway competent Conservative leader can expect to make gains. SKS is a poor man’s Harold Wilson.

    We’ll see if Badenoch is halfway competent. If she isn’t she can be replaced.
    Starmer is shitting the bed to such a degree that Labour are leading the polls by a clear margin after weeks of doing unpopular stuff. I’ll be excited to see how they do when he stops shitting the bed!
    He might get a lead in a proper opinion poll?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046

    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne wanting a fashionable leader of their party to talk about at Kensington dinner parties does she actually appeal to?
    Fair points, well made.

    I think it’s entirely possible that Badenoch could actually surprise on the downside - which would be some feat given how utterly useless she was as a government minister.
    She seems like the riskier option for a rebuilding effort. But Tories are risk takers thesedays.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,738
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I spent some time on the math, so it needs reposting:

    Nigelb said:

    This gives some insight into Putin's mindset (and Russian public opinion, such as it is).
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/22/high-russian-death-toll-fails-shift-opinion-ukraine-war

    Of course, the Russian dead and injured aren't from Moscow and St Petersburg. As seems always to be the case in Russia, it is the poorest provinces that are bearing the cost of the center's ambitions.

    But Russia doesn't have an unlimited supply of young men.

    In June, 98,600 people were born in Russia. So, rounding, we're talking about 49,000 male babies.

    They're losing 30,000 people per month - killed, captured and wounded - in Ukraine.

    If you compare this to the British losses on the Western Front in the first World World War, you're looking at around 40,000 male babies per month, against 20,000 casualties.

    So, in the First World War, the British were losing the equivalent of half a month's births on the battlefield. The Russians, in Ukraine, are at 60%.
    Ukraine has similar demographics of course, from a smaller base, with people oversees to boot - which is probably why many are downbeat on their prospects in most offensive phases, now the Russians have seemingly ridden themselves of the highest amount of incomptence.
    Russia very rarely loses wars on the battlefield. Much more often, it loses them on the home front. That has to be Ukraine's grand strategy here too. The Kremlin is overheating its economy because of war efforts and in the short term that will also bring some popularity but there will be a price to pay (literally) as inflation increasingly bites, as it will.

    Obviously, with a Trump presidency, Putin need worry less about Western retaliation to war crimes in terms of support for Ukraine, sanctions and so on, and presumably that's his plan: bomb Ukraine more. But it's not worked so far and people are resilient in such situations.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt the Osborne endorsement makes much difference with members but confirms that after Cleverly was knocked out Badenoch is now the favourite of former Cameron and Sunak loyalists. See also endorsements from Hague and Gove for Badenoch (though she has also picked up support from IDS and Davis).

    All I can say is I didn't vote for her and at most expect her to be a bit better than Truss, helped by the fact being in opposition she doesn't straight away get to implement any plans. Not that I have seen many plans from her, it is Jenrick with the policies on new homes, lower immigration, lower taxes etc.

    Indeed the biggest winner from a Kemi win is probably Farage, an Electoral Calculus poll has a Badenoch led Tories just 1% ahead of Reform on 22% to 21%. So I expect champagne corks will pop at Reform Towers if she does win

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_hypopoll_20241017.html

    Are you metaphorically chucking in the towel then? I wasn't sure she'd won but you speak to a lot more Tories than I do.
    I still think it will be closer based on those I speak to but the ConHome survey this morning suggests Badenoch ahead.

    She certainly has much to do, at the moment she is polling worse than Rishi is

    https://conservativehome.com/2024/10/25/badenoch-maintains-her-lead-in-our-final-leadership-survey/
    Worth a cheeky few quid on Jenrick or pretty much a done deal just closer than the survey suggests?
    Was thinking along similar lines. Is 5.1 VALUE? Hmm.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited October 25

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne does she actually appeal to?
    Jenrick is a grifter, who says whatever he thinks his audience wish to hear.

    SKS is currently shitting the bed to such a degree that any halfway competent Conservative leader can expect to make gains. SKS is a poor man’s Harold Wilson.

    We’ll see if Badenoch is halfway competent. If she isn’t she can be replaced.
    Starmer is shitting the bed to such a degree that Labour are leading the polls by a clear margin after weeks of doing unpopular stuff. I’ll be excited to see how they do when he stops shitting the bed!
    He might get a lead in a proper opinion poll?
    He has.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,104
    edited October 25
    Updating anecdata re: my post early this morning.

    I said:
    MattW said:

    Rachel Reeves is having some sort of impact.

    Anecdata. I've been jumped on today by a development company that want a deed of transfer signed before the budget. It's a small ransom strip to a new housing estate, and they are trying afaics to get all the basics in place now. They have been sitting on this for about 3-4 years with an option agreement whilst they have been talking to the farmer next door, presumably waving it around and saying "look you can't sell to anyone except us".

    They are not doing it to save me CGT (it's a development company :smile: ), so it's something on their side that they need sorted in case any instant or fairly prompt changes come in. It will be around the possible extra cost vs the opportunity cost of not being able to screw the other seller down, or possibly if they want to get a Planning Application in before Planning Gain rules are tightened. As I always say: the things that matter are money and risk; I think I got that from a Lord Weinstock underling in about 1990 on a "Business Skills" course module.

    I hope the Local Councils everywhere are ready for the wave of applications that are about to arrive, as the logjam possibly unwinds a little !

    I'm there are people here dealing with far bigger stuff than this. A straw in the wind?

    I've discovered what happened. The person selling the land for which we have controlled the easiest entrance, demanded that the developer complete the thing pre-budget day, or it was off.

    Clearly he thinks his CGT liability may suddenly jump on budget day.

    It also shows how quickly big developers can react when forced to do so. This has been quietly ticking along for 3-4 years, and the developer has now committed to the transaction before having planning permission in place. Getting the PP is 90%+ likelihood; it's just how whatever is coming in will affect things.

    That's one sort of shenigans I think she is tying to short circuit.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,032
    edited October 25
    It may be helpful, but if Osborne's endorsement were "crucial", wouldn't we still be in the EU?

    And would Liz Truss have been elected?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    edited October 25
    Fishing said:

    It may be helpful, but if Osborne's endorsement were "crucial", wouldn't we still be in the EU?

    Where the most popular heir to a baronetcy in the country moves, the people follow.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015
    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne wanting a fashionable leader of their party to talk about at Kensington dinner parties does she actually appeal to?
    Don't ask me.
    I'm not even giving the Tories advice on which of the two duds to pick.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,777
    Fishing said:

    It may be helpful, but if Osborne's endorsement were "crucial", wouldn't we still be in the EU?

    And would Liz Truss have been elected?

    Yes, I don't think Osborne's backing is going to change a single vote from members who are looking to vote for Jenrick.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I spent some time on the math, so it needs reposting:

    Nigelb said:

    This gives some insight into Putin's mindset (and Russian public opinion, such as it is).
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/22/high-russian-death-toll-fails-shift-opinion-ukraine-war

    Of course, the Russian dead and injured aren't from Moscow and St Petersburg. As seems always to be the case in Russia, it is the poorest provinces that are bearing the cost of the center's ambitions.

    But Russia doesn't have an unlimited supply of young men.

    In June, 98,600 people were born in Russia. So, rounding, we're talking about 49,000 male babies.

    They're losing 30,000 people per month - killed, captured and wounded - in Ukraine.

    If you compare this to the British losses on the Western Front in the first World World War, you're looking at around 40,000 male babies per month, against 20,000 casualties.

    So, in the First World War, the British were losing the equivalent of half a month's births on the battlefield. The Russians, in Ukraine, are at 60%.
    Ukraine has similar demographics of course, from a smaller base, with people oversees to boot - which is probably why many are downbeat on their prospects in most offensive phases, now the Russians have seemingly ridden themselves of the highest amount of incomptence.
    One of the main reasons that Ukraine has been pushed back a little this year, and suffered bad enough casualties that their only offensive was catching the Russians on the hop in Kursk, is that they've been fighting with a major imbalance in artillery ammunition. Just as in WWI, the majority of casualties have been caused by artillery.

    If Ukraine can be supplied with greater quantities of ranged ammunition - they've been asking for funding for their domestic drone industry for example - then they can reverse the imbalance in ranged weapons to their advantage. They can destroy Russian munitions before they reach the battlefield, destroy more Russian artillery pieces, and inflict casualties on Russian infantry at a greater distance - reducing their own casualty rate at the same time.

    That's the route to victory that also reduces the damage to the current generation of young Ukrainians.

    Any damage they can be done to Russian war industry by making India and other countries a better offer to persuade them to prevent supply of components to Russia would also greatly help.
    The other being the six month US supply drought over the end of last year.

    If Harris is elected, and S Korea changes its policy because of fat Kim's involvement, next spring could look very different.

    If Trump is elected, it will be grim for them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I spent some time on the math, so it needs reposting:

    Nigelb said:

    This gives some insight into Putin's mindset (and Russian public opinion, such as it is).
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/22/high-russian-death-toll-fails-shift-opinion-ukraine-war

    Of course, the Russian dead and injured aren't from Moscow and St Petersburg. As seems always to be the case in Russia, it is the poorest provinces that are bearing the cost of the center's ambitions.

    But Russia doesn't have an unlimited supply of young men.

    In June, 98,600 people were born in Russia. So, rounding, we're talking about 49,000 male babies.

    They're losing 30,000 people per month - killed, captured and wounded - in Ukraine.

    If you compare this to the British losses on the Western Front in the first World World War, you're looking at around 40,000 male babies per month, against 20,000 casualties.

    So, in the First World War, the British were losing the equivalent of half a month's births on the battlefield. The Russians, in Ukraine, are at 60%.
    Ukraine has similar demographics of course, from a smaller base, with people oversees to boot - which is probably why many are downbeat on their prospects in most offensive phases, now the Russians have seemingly ridden themselves of the highest amount of incomptence.
    One of the main reasons that Ukraine has been pushed back a little this year, and suffered bad enough casualties that their only offensive was catching the Russians on the hop in Kursk, is that they've been fighting with a major imbalance in artillery ammunition. Just as in WWI, the majority of casualties have been caused by artillery.

    If Ukraine can be supplied with greater quantities of ranged ammunition - they've been asking for funding for their domestic drone industry for example - then they can reverse the imbalance in ranged weapons to their advantage. They can destroy Russian munitions before they reach the battlefield, destroy more Russian artillery pieces, and inflict casualties on Russian infantry at a greater distance - reducing their own casualty rate at the same time.

    That's the route to victory that also reduces the damage to the current generation of young Ukrainians.

    Any damage they can be done to Russian war industry by making India and other countries a better offer to persuade them to prevent supply of components to Russia would also greatly help.
    The other being the six month US supply drought over the end of last year.

    If Harris is elected, and S Korea changes its policy because of fat Kim's involvement, next spring could look very different.

    If Trump is elected, it will be grim for them.
    Yep.

    Europe and the UK are going to really need to step up in the event the Americans leave the party.

  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,290
    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    It may be helpful, but if Osborne's endorsement were "crucial", wouldn't we still be in the EU?

    And would Liz Truss have been elected?

    Yes, I don't think Osborne's backing is going to change a single vote from members who are looking to vote for Jenrick.
    Osborne and Cameron are probably viewed by Tory members the same way Labour members viewed Blair during the Corbyn years. Wonder if that might change over time.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,782
    As promised I said I would get back re the Old Dean by election in Surrey Heath which was an extraordinarily result for the LDs, even more so if you know the history of the LDs in this ward. They have never won it and never come anywhere close. I presumed there was an underlying story rather than the national mood.

    Well @HYUFD you were right (also for @JohnO and @Cicero information and anyone else who commented) there was not some scandal or anything like that. It was a normal by election, which makes the result even more extraordinary with big swings from Labour and the Tories. I was given a list of reasons, but frankly they were nothing out of the ordinary. A ward that the LDs haven't fought for many years, but which will have been canvassed and leafleted heavily for the GE and having won it the momentum rolls on in what was their most difficult ward.

    Interestingly I was told that the LDs are now the only party there that has the resources to really fight a full blown campaign. In my day it was only the Tories that could do that. We had some wards with no members and no supporters and had to target ruthlessly.

    This does bode well for the County elections in Surrey for the LDs. I anticipate big gains for the LDs in parliamentary seats they won.

    This however is counter to what happened to @JohnO in Hersham. I know nothing about that by election, but John did win it back from the LDs and the LDs had won the constituency. Do you want to comment John? Would be interested in your views.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,762
    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne wanting a fashionable leader of their party to talk about at Kensington dinner parties does she actually appeal to?
    Yeah, I wouldn't piss on the Tory party if it was on fire, so my views are worth diddly. It does seem to me that Badenoch vs Jenrick is a choice of mad vs bad. I'd go for mad, personally. But it's not a great offer.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,054
    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne wanting a fashionable leader of their party to talk about at Kensington dinner parties does she actually appeal to?
    I think they are braids, not dreadlocks.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,397
    Back once again for the renegade master
    D4 damager, power to the people
    Back once again for the renegade master
    D4 damager, with the ill behavior, with the ill behavior, with the ill behavior, with the ill behavior....
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    As PBers await the First Tuesday After the First Monday in November - with our accustomed dignity and grace - here is brief note re: one of the closest elections in US history = POTUS 1916.

    In 1912, Democratic nominee Woodrow Wilson won an easy victory, thanks to the split within the Republican Party between incumbent POTUS William Howard Taft and his predecesor (and former sponsor) Progressive ("Bull Moose") challenger Theodore Roosevelt.

    BUT four year later, the GOP was (mostly) reunited, and Wilson was dealing with not just with socio-economic challenges at home, but with World War I in Europe and Revolution in Mexico. Domestically both Wilson and his Republican challenger in 1916, NY Gov. Charles Evans Hughes were both small-p progressives; internationally CEH was more supportive (sorta) of the Entente versus the Central Powers, while WW's campaign slogan was, "he kept us out of war".

    The 2016 election result was quite close: Wilson 277 electoral votes & 9.3m popular votes (49.2%) versus 254 ev & 8.5m pv (46.1%) with remaining pv going to Socialist (3.2%), Prohibition (1.2%) and others (0.2%).

    On Election Night, most of the Eastern USA went to bed thinking that Charles Evans Hughes has won the election. Including Charles Evans Hughes. Story goes, that a reporter called at his residence early the morning after and asked to speak to CEH. The President is sleeping, said the butler; well, replied the journo, when he wakes up, tell him he's NOT the President".

    Why? Because of late returns from the West . . . in particular California

    Key state proved to be California, with 17 evs and which Wilson won by margin of +3,373 out of 1m votes cast for President.

    Upon which hangs yet ANOTHER famous story. Which concerns Hughes and CA Gov Hiram Johnson. Who was a progressive Republican reformer who in 1912 was Theodore Roosevelt's VP running mate on the "Bull Moose" ticket. Like TR, Johnson had returned to the GOP fold, but he was far less gung-ho that TR; he was also famously irrascible and easily offended, both politically & personally.

    So when Hughes was campaigning in California that Autumn, and by chance he and Johnson were at the same hotel, perhaps NOT wise for the GOP nominee to NOT take step to meet with the CA Gov. Which HJ interpreted (perhaps unfairly) as a deliberate snub. Hence neither he nor his considerable political organization in the Great Bear Republic went what you'd call all-out for the top of the Republican ticket . . .
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,806
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne wanting a fashionable leader of their party to talk about at Kensington dinner parties does she actually appeal to?
    I think they are braids, not dreadlocks.
    "All black hairstyles look the same to me!"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015
    kjh said:

    As promised I said I would get back re the Old Dean by election in Surrey Heath which was an extraordinarily result for the LDs, even more so if you know the history of the LDs in this ward. They have never won it and never come anywhere close. I presumed there was an underlying story rather than the national mood.

    Well @HYUFD you were right (also for @JohnO and @Cicero information and anyone else who commented) there was not some scandal or anything like that. It was a normal by election, which makes the result even more extraordinary with big swings from Labour and the Tories. I was given a list of reasons, but frankly they were nothing out of the ordinary. A ward that the LDs haven't fought for many years, but which will have been canvassed and leafleted heavily for the GE and having won it the momentum rolls on in what was their most difficult ward.

    Interestingly I was told that the LDs are now the only party there that has the resources to really fight a full blown campaign. In my day it was only the Tories that could do that. We had some wards with no members and no supporters and had to target ruthlessly.

    This does bode well for the County elections in Surrey for the LDs. I anticipate big gains for the LDs in parliamentary seats they won.

    This however is counter to what happened to @JohnO in Hersham. I know nothing about that by election, but John did win it back from the LDs and the LDs had won the constituency. Do you want to comment John? Would be interested in your views.

    The voters simply recognised JohnO's class, obvs.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,840
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It sounds like a very good policy.

    New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.

    She rolled out the proposal at a rally in a blue-collar city in Pennsylvania. politico.com/news/2024/10/25…

    https://nitter.poast.org/hollyotterbein/status/1849776400284152096#m

    In a number of areas the mandatory degree has become a barrier.

    I mentioned before the issue of Afro-Caribbean’s in banking. Well guess which community is massively under represented in the degree’s? Not to mention White Working Class and a few other groups.

    Back in the day, the literal Barrow Boy route - start with fetch the tea on a desk, could end up a senior manger… This did something for diversity - no, it wasn’t much, but it was something.

    I work with a team of people of that background - all in their late forties. No more of them coming through now….
    Indeed, there are plenty of jobs with a degree 'requirement' which just seems like a status thing, especially when the people in the job currently do not have one! I've seen many job descriptions like that, where nothing in it seems to justify that requirement, yet it is inserted without any question whatsoever.

    Just make it desirable rather than a requirement and you immediately open the door to many others.
    I have for a while being absolutely convinced that the graduatisation of the police is a deliberate and malicious attempt to cut out the main demographic, who would have been the bulk of applicants. White working class young men.
    Even if it is not deliberate or malicious indirect indirect discrimination is an accepted thing, so would presumably apply.

    It's just a silly route to go down, eventually everyone will need to get second degrees to distinguish themselves (when I was at University Canadian students claimed this was already the case for them). When I was at school there was a big push around different types of intelligence, and how not everyone had the kind of academic style intelligence and that was ok, but such policies argue pretty strongly it is not ok, when there is literally nothing else stopping someone from doing the job.

    Maybe I should have done my masters on this topic.
    For the police, absolutely it was, along with fast-tracked promotion and direct entry to CID. There has long been envy of working class oiks running the police on top salaries. The police have for decades been about the last place where you could go from GCSE school-leaver to the top.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,054
    Andy_JS said:

    New from John Gray.

    "The implosion of centrism has left Labour in unmapped territory
    The world the party expected to join when it came to power no longer exists."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/10/implosion-centrism-leaves-labour-unmapped-territory

    https://archive.is/feXOd
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,397
    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne wanting a fashionable leader of their party to talk about at Kensington dinner parties does she actually appeal to?
    I'm voting for Badenoch because I think she's the best candidate of those left, and I'd love her to destroy Labour on culture-war issues - which they seem determined to impale themselves upon.

    I don't give a flying fig whether she's black or not. We are well beyond that in the Tory party and, like MLK, now judge on character not skin.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,361
    kjh said:

    As promised I said I would get back re the Old Dean by election in Surrey Heath which was an extraordinarily result for the LDs, even more so if you know the history of the LDs in this ward. They have never won it and never come anywhere close. I presumed there was an underlying story rather than the national mood.

    Well @HYUFD you were right (also for @JohnO and @Cicero information and anyone else who commented) there was not some scandal or anything like that. It was a normal by election, which makes the result even more extraordinary with big swings from Labour and the Tories. I was given a list of reasons, but frankly they were nothing out of the ordinary. A ward that the LDs haven't fought for many years, but which will have been canvassed and leafleted heavily for the GE and having won it the momentum rolls on in what was their most difficult ward.

    Interestingly I was told that the LDs are now the only party there that has the resources to really fight a full blown campaign. In my day it was only the Tories that could do that. We had some wards with no members and no supporters and had to target ruthlessly.

    This does bode well for the County elections in Surrey for the LDs. I anticipate big gains for the LDs in parliamentary seats they won.

    This however is counter to what happened to @JohnO in Hersham. I know nothing about that by election, but John did win it back from the LDs and the LDs had won the constituency. Do you want to comment John? Would be interested in your views.

    Interesting insight. Thanks.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,540

    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne wanting a fashionable leader of their party to talk about at Kensington dinner parties does she actually appeal to?
    Yeah, I wouldn't piss on the Tory party if it was on fire, so my views are worth diddly. It does seem to me that Badenoch vs Jenrick is a choice of mad vs bad. I'd go for mad, personally. But it's not a great offer.
    There are cures for mad.

    But for bad?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,397
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne does she actually appeal to?
    Jenrick is a grifter, who says whatever he thinks his audience wish to hear.

    SKS is currently shitting the bed to such a degree that any halfway competent Conservative leader can expect to make gains. SKS is a poor man’s Harold Wilson.

    We’ll see if Badenoch is halfway competent. If she isn’t she can be replaced.
    He's shat the bed within 100 days of taking office. He's stunningly incompetent.

    Could the next GE2029 be one of the most astonishing ever, where one landslide overturns another?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I spent some time on the math, so it needs reposting:

    Nigelb said:

    This gives some insight into Putin's mindset (and Russian public opinion, such as it is).
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/22/high-russian-death-toll-fails-shift-opinion-ukraine-war

    Of course, the Russian dead and injured aren't from Moscow and St Petersburg. As seems always to be the case in Russia, it is the poorest provinces that are bearing the cost of the center's ambitions.

    But Russia doesn't have an unlimited supply of young men.

    In June, 98,600 people were born in Russia. So, rounding, we're talking about 49,000 male babies.

    They're losing 30,000 people per month - killed, captured and wounded - in Ukraine.

    If you compare this to the British losses on the Western Front in the first World World War, you're looking at around 40,000 male babies per month, against 20,000 casualties.

    So, in the First World War, the British were losing the equivalent of half a month's births on the battlefield. The Russians, in Ukraine, are at 60%.
    Ukraine has similar demographics of course, from a smaller base, with people oversees to boot - which is probably why many are downbeat on their prospects in most offensive phases, now the Russians have seemingly ridden themselves of the highest amount of incomptence.
    One of the main reasons that Ukraine has been pushed back a little this year, and suffered bad enough casualties that their only offensive was catching the Russians on the hop in Kursk, is that they've been fighting with a major imbalance in artillery ammunition. Just as in WWI, the majority of casualties have been caused by artillery.

    If Ukraine can be supplied with greater quantities of ranged ammunition - they've been asking for funding for their domestic drone industry for example - then they can reverse the imbalance in ranged weapons to their advantage. They can destroy Russian munitions before they reach the battlefield, destroy more Russian artillery pieces, and inflict casualties on Russian infantry at a greater distance - reducing their own casualty rate at the same time.

    That's the route to victory that also reduces the damage to the current generation of young Ukrainians.

    Any damage they can be done to Russian war industry by making India and other countries a better offer to persuade them to prevent supply of components to Russia would also greatly help.
    The other being the six month US supply drought over the end of last year.

    If Harris is elected, and S Korea changes its policy because of fat Kim's involvement, next spring could look very different.

    If Trump is elected, it will be grim for them.
    Yep.

    Europe and the UK are going to really need to step up in the event the Americans leave the party.

    They won't step up, even if they could. Not to the level that would be needed in that event.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,409
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I think this one is at a point where if Kemi loses it will look like racism was a big factor even if it wasn't.

    The Labour party hasn't ever really recovered morally from choosing Ed Miliband in 2010 instead of Diane Abbott.
    Yes we could have revelled endlessly in the clear pure waters of opposition with Diane. It was a golden opportunity spurned. A sliding doors moment.
    As opposed to the 14 years of opposition ending up with a Labour government committed to Brexit?
    Lab supporting Brexit now that they have a huge stonking majority represents, for me, their biggest failing. Parties are supposed to lead, not be scared of their electorate. If they really were a party of committed beliefs they would a) have begun to voice concerns about Brexit during the campaign, so what they'd have lost 20 seats; and b) now begin to dismantle it in earnest.

    That's their biggest failing? Ok.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,866
    Late afternoon all :)

    I've no skin in the Conservative leadership election game - from a betting perspective, the fall and rise of Kemi Badenoch has been fascinating - three weeks ago, after the Conference, it seemed she might lose out and it would be Jenrick vs Cleverly and the third ballot didn't end that speculation but she has consistently added support in every round from 22 in round one to 42.

    I've no clue what kind of leader she will be or how she will fare. We now have a multipolar political environment - the Labour-Conservative duopoly still won 533 seats last time but if Reform, the LDs and Greens can each build local constituency bases in their strongholds it becomes harder for either Labour and the Conservatives.

    We haven't seen much evidence of strong Reform organisation outside a few areas - that may change in the coming months but it will have to if the Party is to break out of a few areas.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It sounds like a very good policy.

    New: Josh Shapiro privately pressed Kamala Harris to take up one of his policies aimed at working-class voters — tossing out college degree requirements for government jobs.

    She rolled out the proposal at a rally in a blue-collar city in Pennsylvania. politico.com/news/2024/10/25…

    https://nitter.poast.org/hollyotterbein/status/1849776400284152096#m

    In a number of areas the mandatory degree has become a barrier.

    I mentioned before the issue of Afro-Caribbean’s in banking. Well guess which community is massively under represented in the degree’s? Not to mention White Working Class and a few other groups.

    Back in the day, the literal Barrow Boy route - start with fetch the tea on a desk, could end up a senior manger… This did something for diversity - no, it wasn’t much, but it was something.

    I work with a team of people of that background - all in their late forties. No more of them coming through now….
    Indeed, there are plenty of jobs with a degree 'requirement' which just seems like a status thing, especially when the people in the job currently do not have one! I've seen many job descriptions like that, where nothing in it seems to justify that requirement, yet it is inserted without any question whatsoever.

    Just make it desirable rather than a requirement and you immediately open the door to many others.
    I have for a while being absolutely convinced that the graduatisation of the police is a deliberate and malicious attempt to cut out the main demographic, who would have been the bulk of applicants. White working class young men.
    Even if it is not deliberate or malicious indirect indirect discrimination is an accepted thing, so would presumably apply.

    It's just a silly route to go down, eventually everyone will need to get second degrees to distinguish themselves (when I was at University Canadian students claimed this was already the case for them). When I was at school there was a big push around different types of intelligence, and how not everyone had the kind of academic style intelligence and that was ok, but such policies argue pretty strongly it is not ok, when there is literally nothing else stopping someone from doing the job.

    Maybe I should have done my masters on this topic.
    For the police, absolutely it was, along with fast-tracked promotion and direct entry to CID. There has long been envy of working class oiks running the police on top salaries. The police have for decades been about the last place where you could go from GCSE school-leaver to the top.
    I think it possible to become chief fire officer with no paper qualifications.

  • eekeek Posts: 28,362

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    I still think Badenoch is the best choice for the Tories. Yes she’s a dice roll, she can be divisive, undisciplined, all-talk-no-action, gaffe prone etc. But she is different. And she does therefore offer the Tories a wildcard.

    I have said before I’m not entirely convinced that the Tories build their voter coalition back by trying to be trendy Cameroon centrists again. At least not right now.

    I am not quite sure where the Tories end up under Badenoch. That makes her an interesting prospect.

    All these PBers on here saying 'roll the dice on Badenoch' she is a black woman with dreadlocks, looks different. Yet not one of you will vote Tory if she becomes leader.

    Badenoch was a Leaver, so will not win back LDs and opposes withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, so will not win back Reform voters and is fanatically anti woke so will not win back voters from Labour or most young people either.

    So who apart from wealthy metropolitan Tories like Maude and Gove and Osborne does she actually appeal to?
    Jenrick is a grifter, who says whatever he thinks his audience wish to hear.

    SKS is currently shitting the bed to such a degree that any halfway competent Conservative leader can expect to make gains. SKS is a poor man’s Harold Wilson.

    We’ll see if Badenoch is halfway competent. If she isn’t she can be replaced.
    He's shat the bed within 100 days of taking office. He's stunningly incompetent.

    Could the next GE2029 be one of the most astonishing ever, where one landslide overturns another?
    That was GE2024...

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,840
    MaxPB said:

    Fishing said:

    It may be helpful, but if Osborne's endorsement were "crucial", wouldn't we still be in the EU?

    And would Liz Truss have been elected?

    Yes, I don't think Osborne's backing is going to change a single vote from members who are looking to vote for Jenrick.
    Previously Osborne had previously seemed (to me at least) to be leaning Jenrick's way, and had cited Jenrick's willingness to move to where the electorate is (aka centrist cos-playing right) cf Cameron.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,015
    Ted begging for bucks on Fox News.
    https://x.com/DecodingFoxNews/status/1849544759762620726

    Is Texas on ? (Prob not, but there's a chance...)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,540

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT, but I spent some time on the math, so it needs reposting:

    Nigelb said:

    This gives some insight into Putin's mindset (and Russian public opinion, such as it is).
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/22/high-russian-death-toll-fails-shift-opinion-ukraine-war

    Of course, the Russian dead and injured aren't from Moscow and St Petersburg. As seems always to be the case in Russia, it is the poorest provinces that are bearing the cost of the center's ambitions.

    But Russia doesn't have an unlimited supply of young men.

    In June, 98,600 people were born in Russia. So, rounding, we're talking about 49,000 male babies.

    They're losing 30,000 people per month - killed, captured and wounded - in Ukraine.

    If you compare this to the British losses on the Western Front in the first World World War, you're looking at around 40,000 male babies per month, against 20,000 casualties.

    So, in the First World War, the British were losing the equivalent of half a month's births on the battlefield. The Russians, in Ukraine, are at 60%.
    Ukraine has similar demographics of course, from a smaller base, with people oversees to boot - which is probably why many are downbeat on their prospects in most offensive phases, now the Russians have seemingly ridden themselves of the highest amount of incomptence.
    Russia very rarely loses wars on the battlefield. Much more often, it loses them on the home front. That has to be Ukraine's grand strategy here too. The Kremlin is overheating its economy because of war efforts and in the short term that will also bring some popularity but there will be a price to pay (literally) as inflation increasingly bites, as it will.

    Obviously, with a Trump presidency, Putin need worry less about Western retaliation to war crimes in terms of support for Ukraine, sanctions and so on, and presumably that's his plan: bomb Ukraine more. But it's not worked so far and people are resilient in such situations.
    And anyway, by the spring offensive it will be a question of which way will President Vance go. (Assuming Putin doesn't have the dirt on him too...CCTV of his sofa?)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,046
    I mean, I think Trump will win North Carolina too, but I can see at least a few objections to this plan.

    The chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus says the North Carolina legislature should consider allocating the state’s presidential electors to Donald Trump even before votes are counted in the swing state.

    Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) said Thursday that such a step by North Carolina’s Republican-controlled legislature “makes a lot of sense” given the devastation wrought by Hurricane Helene in the western part of the state. Counties in that region are expected to vote heavily for Trump...

    “You statistically can go and say, ‘Look, you got disenfranchised in 25 counties. You know what that vote probably would have been,’” Harris said during an exchange with a speaker at the dinner. “Which would be — if I were in the legislature — enough to go, ‘Yeah we have to convene the legislature. We can’t disenfranchise the voters.’”


    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/25/trump-freedom-caucus-north-carolina-electors-00185520?is_magic_link=true&template_id=OTJIR2CRKUD6&template_variant_id=OTVCVBJYNAEW6
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