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Last night’s debate brings no happy ending for Bobby J – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    So just like the whole country.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,858
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Anyone posted today’s Techne poll yet?

    LAB: 28% (-1)
    CON: 25% (+1)
    RFM: 19% (=)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via @techneUK, 16-17 Oct.
    Changes w/ 9-10 Oct.


    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1847231455258124325?s=46

    Notable largely for having the lowest LabCon score of any poll yet. 53% vs 47% for the SPLORG.

    The SPLORG is drawing closer.

    And SPLORG is a monster that Lab/Con do not wish to discuss or draw attention to.

    While I think it is improbable that this massive downward trend for Lab+Con will continue - they are already down 6 points since the 2024 election and 29 points down from the 2017 GE, it is not at all impossible. A next thinkable phase is that just as the populist opinion has switched to declaring it will vote Reform, centrist opinion could combine around the LDs. If tnat occurred SPLORG could go over 50, and at that figure there is something like a tipping point which gets noticed more widely than the wonks and anoraks.
    I doubt it, the LDs are not trusted by centre left voters after the coalition and right of centre opponents of Labour will vote Tory or Reform still.

    At general elections the LD vote remains largely upper middle class centrist Remainers, it is Reform eating into the white working class vote however
    Yes, quite reasonable about the past. But the future does not always resemble it exactly. We would not have predicted that the Lab/Con combined level of support would drop from 82% to 53% (approx) in a very few years. Try this question: Who are centre left, centre right and centre voters to trust when they get disillusioned with Lab and Con? It isn't going to eb a new party; it isn't Reform and it isn't the hard left.

    Sherlock Holmes may apply here: "Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the case".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    edited October 18
    Is that dollar weighted ?
    If so, it will be skewed by a few very large donors.

    The 2020/2024 difference is still notable.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    28% is astonishingly low for a party that won an election just 3 months ago.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,610
    edited October 18

    Hardly surprising, Ascot is contained within Windsor constituency, the one remaining Tory seat in Berkshire. It was one of the few remaining Tory council wards which survived the libdem onslaught on W&M council election.
    Yes but the conservatives also took Harpenden from the Lib Dems last night

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1847049433747251576?t=Qfl9okqPxdwojaFbvYG-JQ&s=19
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Nigelb said:

    Is that dollar weighted ?
    If so, it will be skewed by a few very large donors.

    The 2020/2024 difference is still notable.
    From the article it sounds as though it isn't. It is just the number of executives that fall into each category.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,858
    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682
    MattW said:

    OT: Has anyone had Chuckleberries?

    What are they like?

    (Background: it's time to stock up with berries for the winter/spring for things that did badly, and the Chuckleberries are £38 for 12 kg, which is inexpensive enough that I can make about a year's worth of Chuckleberry Vinegar with half of them. Blueberries are £18 for 2kg. Quite the difference.)

    Wife is keen for me to plant some on the allotment, so will be doing so shortly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Harris's Fox interview had more than double Trump's audience.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4939454-vice-president-harris-interview-fox-news-viewers/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,012
    Andy_JS said:

    28% is astonishingly low for a party that won an election just 3 months ago.

    33% is an astonishingly low figure to win a GE with. Unprecedented to my knowledge.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,944

    Hardly surprising, Ascot is contained within Windsor constituency, the one remaining Tory seat in Berkshire. It was one of the few remaining Tory council wards which survived the libdem onslaught on W&M council election.
    Yes but the conservatives also took Harpenden from the Lib Dems last night

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1847049433747251576?t=Qfl9okqPxdwojaFbvYG-JQ&s=19
    Yes, and well done to them.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,945
    "Heavily pregnant woman and unborn baby die after crash involving unmarked police car
    The woman, 38, and her unborn child died following a crash in Eltham, southeast London."

    https://news.sky.com/story/eltham-heavily-pregnant-woman-and-unborn-baby-die-after-crash-involving-unmarked-police-car-13235771
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682
    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,682
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    28% is astonishingly low for a party that won an election just 3 months ago.

    33% is an astonishingly low figure to win a GE with. Unprecedented to my knowledge.
    And not just win, but gain a huge majority (albeit that was the rules of the game)
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,885

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    Don't forget there is serialization rights.
    According to the Mail, it was quite an advance:
    Boris Johnson has been given an advance of £510million for his upcoming book
    The former Prime Minister is set to write the memoirs detailing his time in No 10

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11681953/Boris-Johnson-lands-500k-advance-eagerly-awaited-memoir-covering-time-Prime-Minister.html
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    edited October 18
    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is that dollar weighted ?
    If so, it will be skewed by a few very large donors.

    The 2020/2024 difference is still notable.
    From the article it sounds as though it isn't. It is just the number of executives that fall into each category.
    Yes, this.

    ..One of the biggest causes of this shift was an unforced error by the Biden administration: the appointment of Gary Gensler as the head of the SEC. I don't think Biden did this because he was anti-crypto. He just wasn't paying attention...
    https://x.com/paulg/status/1847246542664560998


    Trump, of course, only has a vague clue what crypto is, as they started giving him money.
  • Unsurprising (now) news from the USA - Mr Trump has pulled out of yet another interview. That is I think four or five in a week. He also pulled out of a NRA rally. I've made a joke of this but it really is quite notable. Are they trying to cruise to victory or is he really so weak and vulnerable that his staff don't trust hium out on his own and are able to stop him over-ruling them. Just very odd. Meanwhile Harris and camp seem to be doing exactly what you would expect a campaign to do in a tight race. Even if you think you are ahead you should work and act like you are behind.

    It's interesting that this has flipped around from a month ago, where Harris was the one not doing interviews.Suggests that both campaigns now think Trump is slightly ahead (if you're ahead minimise the risks, if you're behind take more gambles)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,888
    edited October 18
    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    Don't forget there is serialization rights.
    According to the Mail, it was quite an advance:
    Boris Johnson has been given an advance of £510million for his upcoming book
    The former Prime Minister is set to write the memoirs detailing his time in No 10

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11681953/Boris-Johnson-lands-500k-advance-eagerly-awaited-memoir-covering-time-Prime-Minister.html
    He won't need to trouble his pretty little head with politics any longer then....

    Hurrah! says everybody.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,423
    Nigelb said:
    Listen, folks, they’re trying to say that Harris’s interview had more viewers, but we know that’s total fake news. My audience is HUGE! Everyone’s talking about it. The media just can’t stand it. I’m still winning bigly, and they’re losing their minds over it!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,885

    Hardly surprising, Ascot is contained within Windsor constituency, the one remaining Tory seat in Berkshire. It was one of the few remaining Tory council wards which survived the libdem onslaught on W&M council election.
    Yes but the conservatives also took Harpenden from the Lib Dems last night

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1847049433747251576?t=Qfl9okqPxdwojaFbvYG-JQ&s=19
    Is that one Town Council seat, or did they take control?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,934

    Hardly surprising, Ascot is contained within Windsor constituency, the one remaining Tory seat in Berkshire. It was one of the few remaining Tory council wards which survived the libdem onslaught on W&M council election.
    Yes but the conservatives also took Harpenden from the Lib Dems last night

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1847049433747251576?t=Qfl9okqPxdwojaFbvYG-JQ&s=19
    Isn't that JackW's neck of the woods I seem to recall.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,888

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    Don't forget there is serialization rights.
    According to the Mail, it was quite an advance:
    Boris Johnson has been given an advance of £510million for his upcoming book
    The former Prime Minister is set to write the memoirs detailing his time in No 10

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11681953/Boris-Johnson-lands-500k-advance-eagerly-awaited-memoir-covering-time-Prime-Minister.html
    He won't need to trouble his pretty little head with politics any longer then....

    Hurrah! says everybody.
    You do understand in your heart of hearts that is but a pipe dream. Johnson has been using the book launch as a platform for his relaunch. OK, it's true no one is listening, but should Starmer and Badenoch fail you know he fancies another shot at World King.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,114
    edited October 18
    Krugman on Trump 2.0 tariffs:


    So, what’s the bottom line on the pros and cons of Trump’s tariff proposals?

    Cons: The tariffs would impose large burdens on middle- and lower-income families. They probably wouldn’t significantly reduce the trade deficit and might actually hurt American manufacturing. And unilateral U.S. tariff action would wreak havoc by fracturing the world trading system.

    Pros: I can’t think of any.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/opinion/trump-tariffs-economy.html

    Edit: The pro, I think at least for Trump, is that it seems like a silver bullet solution to rustbelt voters who will vote for him. He probably doesn't give two hoots about the economics.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,423
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    28% is astonishingly low for a party that won an election just 3 months ago.

    33% is an astonishingly low figure to win a GE with. Unprecedented to my knowledge.
    I think, yes, unprecedented. The Liberals got 33.12% in the 2019 Canadian election, less than the Tories on 34.34%, but were the largest party and formed a minority government.
  • MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    Don't forget there is serialization rights.
    According to the Mail, it was quite an advance:
    Boris Johnson has been given an advance of £510million for his upcoming book
    The former Prime Minister is set to write the memoirs detailing his time in No 10

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11681953/Boris-Johnson-lands-500k-advance-eagerly-awaited-memoir-covering-time-Prime-Minister.html
    He won't need to trouble his pretty little head with politics any longer then....

    Hurrah! says everybody.
    510 million ????
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268

    Unsurprising (now) news from the USA - Mr Trump has pulled out of yet another interview. That is I think four or five in a week. He also pulled out of a NRA rally. I've made a joke of this but it really is quite notable. Are they trying to cruise to victory or is he really so weak and vulnerable that his staff don't trust hium out on his own and are able to stop him over-ruling them. Just very odd. Meanwhile Harris and camp seem to be doing exactly what you would expect a campaign to do in a tight race. Even if you think you are ahead you should work and act like you are behind.

    It's interesting that this has flipped around from a month ago, where Harris was the one not doing interviews.Suggests that both campaigns now think Trump is slightly ahead (if you're ahead minimise the risks, if you're behind take more gambles)
    You got the sense from the Al Smith dinner that people expected him to win. He was being quite pally with Chuck Schumer.

    https://x.com/karluskap/status/1847081960566673439
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,423

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Political memoirs generally only get written after one's star has faded.
  • Nigelb said:

    I suppose it's possible that a whole heap of Trump voters simply won't bother with the GOP Senate candidate ?

    But who the eff are the Trump/Casey voters ?

    Pennsylvania Polling:

    Pres:
    Harris (D): 46%
    Trump (R): 45%

    Sen:
    Casey (D): 48%
    McCormick (R): 39%

    U. Mass Lowell / Oct 9, 2024 / n=800

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1846940328827244744

    They are the people PB can't fathom. The people for whom Trump is a reason to vote Republican. The reason why any other Republican would quite possibly lose this Presidential election quite handily, rather than romp home as per the PB consensus.

    I think that an overlooked outcome is one where the Democrats take the House, hold the Senate, but Trump wins the Presidency.

    The polls seem to be pointing to Trump outperforming Republican Senate candidates in quite a large number of states. I guess the alternative outcomes are that the Senate candidates ride Trump's coattails to victory (despite the polls), or it's only the Presidential polls that are being distorted in Trump's favour, and we're about to see a Democrat landslide that might give them control of Presidency, House and Senate.
    I think it is going to be very hard for the Dems to hold the Senate due to the 3 red state defences - West Virginia (gone), Montana (looking likely to flip) and Ohio (not out of the woods). I would give the Dems a better chance of holding the house.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    edited October 18

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,506
    edited October 18

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    Don't forget there is serialization rights.
    That is in the £3 million. Apparently his publisher is giving him 4 payments of £500k to move the whole process of rights, hardback release, paperback release and updates, then he gets £1 million a year from the Mail, which is on paper for his columns but the rumour is that it was also for the exclusive rights to serialization. Normally a book published under the umbrella of Rupert Murdoch group would serialize with a Murdoch paper as part of the advance deal.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213
    Call centres.

    I mean, FFS how hard is it for the system to log your details once so that each time you are forwarded from one person to another you don't have to go right back to the start and explain everything again from scratch?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,506
    edited October 18
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that big a discount from the off, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864

    Unsurprising (now) news from the USA - Mr Trump has pulled out of yet another interview. That is I think four or five in a week. He also pulled out of a NRA rally. I've made a joke of this but it really is quite notable. Are they trying to cruise to victory or is he really so weak and vulnerable that his staff don't trust hium out on his own and are able to stop him over-ruling them. Just very odd. Meanwhile Harris and camp seem to be doing exactly what you would expect a campaign to do in a tight race. Even if you think you are ahead you should work and act like you are behind.

    It's interesting that this has flipped around from a month ago, where Harris was the one not doing interviews.Suggests that both campaigns now think Trump is slightly ahead (if you're ahead minimise the risks, if you're behind take more gambles)
    You got the sense from the Al Smith dinner that people expected him to win. He was being quite pally with Chuck Schumer.

    https://x.com/karluskap/status/1847081960566673439
    It is 50/50, as Senate majority leader currently you would expect Schumer to at least try and build some civil personal relationship with Trump even if he disagrees with his policies
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,126

    Krugman on Trump 2.0 tariffs:


    So, what’s the bottom line on the pros and cons of Trump’s tariff proposals?

    Cons: The tariffs would impose large burdens on middle- and lower-income families. They probably wouldn’t significantly reduce the trade deficit and might actually hurt American manufacturing. And unilateral U.S. tariff action would wreak havoc by fracturing the world trading system.

    Pros: I can’t think of any.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/17/opinion/trump-tariffs-economy.html

    Edit: The pro, I think at least for Trump, is that it seems like a silver bullet solution to rustbelt voters who will vote for him. He probably doesn't give two hoots about the economics.

    Krugman is spot on and virtually every serious international economist agrees with him. Virtually every attempt to target foreigners instead of sorting out your own problems backfires, and this will be no exception.

    Of course if America is idiotic enough to elect Trump, it deserves everything it gets. Unfortunately the colleteral damage for the rest of the world would be huge.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,888

    Unsurprising (now) news from the USA - Mr Trump has pulled out of yet another interview. That is I think four or five in a week. He also pulled out of a NRA rally. I've made a joke of this but it really is quite notable. Are they trying to cruise to victory or is he really so weak and vulnerable that his staff don't trust hium out on his own and are able to stop him over-ruling them. Just very odd. Meanwhile Harris and camp seem to be doing exactly what you would expect a campaign to do in a tight race. Even if you think you are ahead you should work and act like you are behind.

    It's interesting that this has flipped around from a month ago, where Harris was the one not doing interviews.Suggests that both campaigns now think Trump is slightly ahead (if you're ahead minimise the risks, if you're behind take more gambles)
    You got the sense from the Al Smith dinner that people expected him to win. He was being quite pally with Chuck Schumer.

    https://x.com/karluskap/status/1847081960566673439
    No he wasn't, he was simply rude to Schumer. His performance ignored the niceties of a normal Al Smith dinner and Trump just slagged everyone off except himself.

    There was a small noisy cabal of Trump fans. There wasn't much in the way of raucous applause, although neither were there the boos from 2016.

    Take off your Trump tinted spectacles.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,864
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Anyone posted today’s Techne poll yet?

    LAB: 28% (-1)
    CON: 25% (+1)
    RFM: 19% (=)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via @techneUK, 16-17 Oct.
    Changes w/ 9-10 Oct.


    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1847231455258124325?s=46

    Notable largely for having the lowest LabCon score of any poll yet. 53% vs 47% for the SPLORG.

    The SPLORG is drawing closer.

    And SPLORG is a monster that Lab/Con do not wish to discuss or draw attention to.

    While I think it is improbable that this massive downward trend for Lab+Con will continue - they are already down 6 points since the 2024 election and 29 points down from the 2017 GE, it is not at all impossible. A next thinkable phase is that just as the populist opinion has switched to declaring it will vote Reform, centrist opinion could combine around the LDs. If tnat occurred SPLORG could go over 50, and at that figure there is something like a tipping point which gets noticed more widely than the wonks and anoraks.
    I doubt it, the LDs are not trusted by centre left voters after the coalition and right of centre opponents of Labour will vote Tory or Reform still.

    At general elections the LD vote remains largely upper middle class centrist Remainers, it is Reform eating into the white working class vote however
    Yes, quite reasonable about the past. But the future does not always resemble it exactly. We would not have predicted that the Lab/Con combined level of support would drop from 82% to 53% (approx) in a very few years. Try this question: Who are centre left, centre right and centre voters to trust when they get disillusioned with Lab and Con? It isn't going to eb a new party; it isn't Reform and it isn't the hard left.

    Sherlock Holmes may apply here: "Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the case".
    You might get Greens v Reform with LDs in the centre (at most but unlikely still) as the 3 main parties but not LDs v Reform as the 2 main parties
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,423

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    28% is astonishingly low for a party that won an election just 3 months ago.

    33% is an astonishingly low figure to win a GE with. Unprecedented to my knowledge.
    I think, yes, unprecedented. The Liberals got 33.12% in the 2019 Canadian election, less than the Tories on 34.34%, but were the largest party and formed a minority government.
    The largest party in the 2017 Papua New Guinea election, held under AV, got a 13% national vote share. They didn't win a majority of seats! But they did pick the PM.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,506
    edited October 18
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
    I just find that a very odd business model. 50% discount from the get-go, which every book seller eats all of. Video games don't work that way, you get the discount down the line, but not if you have the hottest game on the market. My understanding is lots of food when first introduced they do offers, but the producer eats that discount. etc.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,143
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    28% is astonishingly low for a party that won an election just 3 months ago.

    33% is an astonishingly low figure to win a GE with. Unprecedented to my knowledge.
    Can't remember the details but someone also pointed out that despite being unprecedently low it was also (one of??) the highest of any major party in europe.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,888

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Political memoirs generally only get written after one's star has faded.
    But not having plummeted. Perhaps Starmer should dust off the old typewriter before it's too late.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
    I just find that a very odd business model. 50% discount from the get-go, which every book seller eats all of. Video games don't work that way, you get the discount down the line, but not if you have the hottest game on the market.
    Yeah well you’re fucking clueless on this so shut up
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,506
    edited October 18
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
    I just find that a very odd business model. 50% discount from the get-go, which every book seller eats all of. Video games don't work that way, you get the discount down the line, but not if you have the hottest game on the market.
    Yeah well you’re fucking clueless on this so shut up
    Calm down. I didn't say I knew. I just said its a strange business model. Normally if you have the hottest product on the market, you do anything but discount it, some companies can get anyway with basically never discounting e.g. Apple. And if you are trying to get a new product into a market, people discount, but it is the producer eating most if not all the discount.

    I just presumed with books on such massive discount, Amazon are paying £10-15 and sell it a cost / tiny profit, so the price isn't really the price i.e. nobody is actually getting £30 per book.
  • novanova Posts: 695
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Don't the discounters 'absorb the discount' because they're not paying £30 for the book?

    The retailers cut obviously varies a lot, but I was under the impression that these heavily discounted books are usually being sold at just above the cost price, rather than at a loss.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,330
    Cookie said:

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
    I've read some very different views on that - and that was looong before Mr Johnson became PM or even Mayor.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    28% is astonishingly low for a party that won an election just 3 months ago.

    33% is an astonishingly low figure to win a GE with. Unprecedented to my knowledge.
    33.7%, actually.

    Blair got a majority in 2005 on 35.2%.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,888
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
    I just find that a very odd business model. 50% discount from the get-go, which every book seller eats all of. Video games don't work that way, you get the discount down the line, but not if you have the hottest game on the market.
    Yeah well you’re fucking clueless on this so shut up
    Ooh a blue on blue cat fight.

    Talking of loss leaders I once found a copy of "Millions of Women are Waiting to Meet you" in the 10p basket at the Works. I thought I'd wait until it was better value, but someone else took the plunge before the price came down.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,506

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
    I just find that a very odd business model. 50% discount from the get-go, which every book seller eats all of. Video games don't work that way, you get the discount down the line, but not if you have the hottest game on the market.
    Yeah well you’re fucking clueless on this so shut up
    Ooh a blue on blue cat fight.

    Talking of loss leaders I once found a copy of "Millions of Women are Waiting to Meet you" in the 10p basket at the Works. I thought I'd wait until it was better value, but someone else took the plunge before the price came down.
    Blue on blue?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,213
    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
    I've read some very different views on that - and that was looong before Mr Johnson became PM or even Mayor.
    I think he's a good writer. Not a literary master of profound insight, but a very talented hack who can knock out erudite and easy to read comic material with ease.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    28% is astonishingly low for a party that won an election just 3 months ago.

    33% is an astonishingly low figure to win a GE with. Unprecedented to my knowledge.
    Can't remember the details but someone also pointed out that despite being unprecedently low it was also (one of??) the highest of any major party in europe.
    We trend toward the general European direction of fragmentation amongst the electorate.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
    I just find that a very odd business model. 50% discount from the get-go, which every book seller eats all of. Video games don't work that way, you get the discount down the line, but not if you have the hottest game on the market.
    Yeah well you’re fucking clueless on this so shut up
    Calm down. I didn't say I knew. I just said its a strange business model. Normally if you have the hottest product on the market, you do anything but discount it, some companies can get anyway with basically never discounting e.g. Apple.
    No, you tried to claim I was completely wrong about this book being a profitable success

    It is a big hit and his publishers will be happy. If they have North American rights or a share of them they will be ecstatic

    Books are unusual because they are sold in vastly different places. Especially supermarkets (a massive chunk of the market). Supermarkets only take big books and they only take them with an eye to massive sales. They are ruthless

    If Tesco sees that the memoirs of lembit opik are really popular on day 1 then by day 2 they will be selling them at half price and taking all the hit because it’s a loss leader. I presume you know what that means - but for leftier pbers it’s an item that is sold at zero profit or a loss because it brings people into the store where they will spend more on other stuff. It doesn’t mean it’s in the bargain bin you foaming cretins

    Amazon then has to match that. And so on

    Also being “number 1” generates massive buzz of its own. You then splash that all over the paperback and sell 3m copies

    Trust me, you might hate Boris but his book is a hit and his publishers will be happy and possibly delighted (depending on the structure of his deal)
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 620
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
    I just find that a very odd business model. 50% discount from the get-go, which every book seller eats all of. Video games don't work that way, you get the discount down the line, but not if you have the hottest game on the market.
    Yeah well you’re fucking clueless on this so shut up
    "loss leaders" are what supermarkets have to get customers in and buy the rest of their groceries. People buying books off Amazon aren't putting another 20 items in their basket. :)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,888
    edited October 18

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
    I just find that a very odd business model. 50% discount from the get-go, which every book seller eats all of. Video games don't work that way, you get the discount down the line, but not if you have the hottest game on the market.
    Yeah well you’re fucking clueless on this so shut up
    Ooh a blue on blue cat fight.

    Talking of loss leaders I once found a copy of "Millions of Women are Waiting to Meet you" in the 10p basket at the Works. I thought I'd wait until it was better value, but someone else took the plunge before the price came down.
    Blue on blue?
    OK, so what colour would you paint a very rude and right wing Leon?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
    CALM DOWN, DEAR!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,352
    edited October 18
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    28% is astonishingly low for a party that won an election just 3 months ago.

    33% is an astonishingly low figure to win a GE with. Unprecedented to my knowledge.

    And yet, and yet (as I have mentioned before), the highest vote share for any single party in the 15 largest European democracies west of the old iron curtain.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,506
    edited October 18
    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
    I've read some very different views on that - and that was looong before Mr Johnson became PM or even Mayor.
    I think he's a good writer. Not a literary master of profound insight, but a very talented hack who can knock out erudite and easy to read comic material with ease.
    The reviews of the book, putting aside the politics, often seemed to be along the lines of it isn't really that interesting of a read, so not even its bollocks, but entertaining bollocks.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,405

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
    I just find that a very odd business model. 50% discount from the get-go, which every book seller eats all of. Video games don't work that way, you get the discount down the line, but not if you have the hottest game on the market. My understanding is lots of food when first introduced they do offers, but the producer eats that discount. etc.
    Boris Gate 3 ?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    TimS said:

    Call centres.

    I mean, FFS how hard is it for the system to log your details once so that each time you are forwarded from one person to another you don't have to go right back to the start and explain everything again from scratch?

    It really is maddening. AI is going to take over the world yesterday apparently, yet seemingly no technology can fix the most inefficient and infuriating processes known to mankind.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    a
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Anyone posted today’s Techne poll yet?

    LAB: 28% (-1)
    CON: 25% (+1)
    RFM: 19% (=)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via @techneUK, 16-17 Oct.
    Changes w/ 9-10 Oct.


    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1847231455258124325?s=46

    Notable largely for having the lowest LabCon score of any poll yet. 53% vs 47% for the SPLORG.

    The SPLORG is drawing closer.

    And SPLORG is a monster that Lab/Con do not wish to discuss or draw attention to.

    While I think it is improbable that this massive downward trend for Lab+Con will continue - they are already down 6 points since the 2024 election and 29 points down from the 2017 GE, it is not at all impossible. A next thinkable phase is that just as the populist opinion has switched to declaring it will vote Reform, centrist opinion could combine around the LDs. If tnat occurred SPLORG could go over 50, and at that figure there is something like a tipping point which gets noticed more widely than the wonks and anoraks.
    I doubt it, the LDs are not trusted by centre left voters after the coalition and right of centre opponents of Labour will vote Tory or Reform still.

    At general elections the LD vote remains largely upper middle class centrist Remainers, it is Reform eating into the white working class vote however
    Yes, quite reasonable about the past. But the future does not always resemble it exactly. We would not have predicted that the Lab/Con combined level of support would drop from 82% to 53% (approx) in a very few years. Try this question: Who are centre left, centre right and centre voters to trust when they get disillusioned with Lab and Con? It isn't going to eb a new party; it isn't Reform and it isn't the hard left.

    Sherlock Holmes may apply here: "Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the case".
    Why not a new party?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,506

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
    I just find that a very odd business model. 50% discount from the get-go, which every book seller eats all of. Video games don't work that way, you get the discount down the line, but not if you have the hottest game on the market.
    Yeah well you’re fucking clueless on this so shut up
    Ooh a blue on blue cat fight.

    Talking of loss leaders I once found a copy of "Millions of Women are Waiting to Meet you" in the 10p basket at the Works. I thought I'd wait until it was better value, but someone else took the plunge before the price came down.
    Blue on blue?
    OK, so what colour would you paint a very rude and right wing Leon?
    I am more wondering what colour you are trying to paint me.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
    It's all muscle.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,858

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I doubt if you could give Boris books away in Edinburgh.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808
    I'd be interested to see if @Mortimer is still a party member and if so (if he wants to share) how he voted.

    Even within the Tory Party, left and right are becoming so polarised that it's difficult to find a bellweather member as Tim was trying to the other day. I feel that the Tory left is overrepresented on PB vs. the Tory right, but if we're anything to go by, Badenoch will do it.

    However, the betting value must lie with Jenrick, who has come from nowhere and run an extremely clever campaign. Many here were writing him off vs. Cleverly a short while ago, so it seems absurd to write him off on the strength of a debate performance. Was it even a poor performance? Seems like maybe it just didn't go over well with the selected audience rather than there being any real gaffes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    Unsurprising (now) news from the USA - Mr Trump has pulled out of yet another interview. That is I think four or five in a week. He also pulled out of a NRA rally. I've made a joke of this but it really is quite notable. Are they trying to cruise to victory or is he really so weak and vulnerable that his staff don't trust hium out on his own and are able to stop him over-ruling them. Just very odd. Meanwhile Harris and camp seem to be doing exactly what you would expect a campaign to do in a tight race. Even if you think you are ahead you should work and act like you are behind.

    It's interesting that this has flipped around from a month ago, where Harris was the one not doing interviews.Suggests that both campaigns now think Trump is slightly ahead (if you're ahead minimise the risks, if you're behind take more gambles)
    You got the sense from the Al Smith dinner that people expected him to win. He was being quite pally with Chuck Schumer.

    https://x.com/karluskap/status/1847081960566673439
    Don't you mean you got the sense ?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,888
    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
    I've read some very different views on that - and that was looong before Mr Johnson became PM or even Mayor.
    I think he's a good writer. Not a literary master of profound insight, but a very talented hack who can knock out erudite and easy to read comic material with ease.
    He's f*****' terrible. Florid language, self- aggrandisement and analogous nonsense.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,858

    a

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Anyone posted today’s Techne poll yet?

    LAB: 28% (-1)
    CON: 25% (+1)
    RFM: 19% (=)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via @techneUK, 16-17 Oct.
    Changes w/ 9-10 Oct.


    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1847231455258124325?s=46

    Notable largely for having the lowest LabCon score of any poll yet. 53% vs 47% for the SPLORG.

    The SPLORG is drawing closer.

    And SPLORG is a monster that Lab/Con do not wish to discuss or draw attention to.

    While I think it is improbable that this massive downward trend for Lab+Con will continue - they are already down 6 points since the 2024 election and 29 points down from the 2017 GE, it is not at all impossible. A next thinkable phase is that just as the populist opinion has switched to declaring it will vote Reform, centrist opinion could combine around the LDs. If tnat occurred SPLORG could go over 50, and at that figure there is something like a tipping point which gets noticed more widely than the wonks and anoraks.
    I doubt it, the LDs are not trusted by centre left voters after the coalition and right of centre opponents of Labour will vote Tory or Reform still.

    At general elections the LD vote remains largely upper middle class centrist Remainers, it is Reform eating into the white working class vote however
    Yes, quite reasonable about the past. But the future does not always resemble it exactly. We would not have predicted that the Lab/Con combined level of support would drop from 82% to 53% (approx) in a very few years. Try this question: Who are centre left, centre right and centre voters to trust when they get disillusioned with Lab and Con? It isn't going to eb a new party; it isn't Reform and it isn't the hard left.

    Sherlock Holmes may apply here: "Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the case".
    Why not a new party?
    Ask Shirley Williams, Chuka Umunna, Ann Coffey etc and the voters.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
    It's all muscle.
    No, Leon's correct about the discount.
    Some of Rowling's books opened with big discounts in supermarkets, I think, even when selling millions.

    But the sales figures don't seem as chunky as Boris himself, so far.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
    I've read some very different views on that - and that was looong before Mr Johnson became PM or even Mayor.
    I think he's a good writer. Not a literary master of profound insight, but a very talented hack who can knock out erudite and easy to read comic material with ease.
    He's f*****' terrible. Florid language, self- aggrandisement and analogous nonsense.
    I think Boris is a very bright man (and he was a great editor and should have been a great PM) but I find some agreement with you

    His style can grate. When he nails it he nails it. He’s very funny when he gets it right

    But too often he lapses into lazy purple prose with hints of learning
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,069
    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
    I've read some very different views on that - and that was looong before Mr Johnson became PM or even Mayor.
    I think he's a good writer. Not a literary master of profound insight, but a very talented hack who can knock out erudite and easy to read comic material with ease.
    Yes, I wasn't trying to paint him as a literary genius. But 'a talented hack whi can knock out erudite and easy to reaf comic material with ease' places him streets ahead of most politicians, and also comfortably in the top half of those who are paid to write. I would suggest a large majority of people who demur do so because Boris vexes them so very much that they cannot feel positively about anything associated with him.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,690
    edited October 18

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
    It's all muscle.
    'The best time to discount is at peak demand'
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
    I've read some very different views on that - and that was looong before Mr Johnson became PM or even Mayor.
    I think he's a good writer. Not a literary master of profound insight, but a very talented hack who can knock out erudite and easy to read comic material with ease.
    Yes, I wasn't trying to paint him as a literary genius. But 'a talented hack whi can knock out erudite and easy to reaf comic material with ease' places him streets ahead of most politicians, and also comfortably in the top half of those who are paid to write. I would suggest a large majority of people who demur do so because Boris vexes them so very much that they cannot feel positively about anything associated with him.
    Spot on
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,506
    edited October 18
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
    I just find that a very odd business model. 50% discount from the get-go, which every book seller eats all of. Video games don't work that way, you get the discount down the line, but not if you have the hottest game on the market.
    Yeah well you’re fucking clueless on this so shut up
    Calm down. I didn't say I knew. I just said its a strange business model. Normally if you have the hottest product on the market, you do anything but discount it, some companies can get anyway with basically never discounting e.g. Apple.
    No, you tried to claim I was completely wrong about this book being a profitable success

    It is a big hit and his publishers will be happy. If they have North American rights or a share of them they will be ecstatic

    Books are unusual because they are sold in vastly different places. Especially supermarkets (a massive chunk of the market). Supermarkets only take big books and they only take them with an eye to massive sales. They are ruthless

    If Tesco sees that the memoirs of lembit opik are really popular on day 1 then by day 2 they will be selling them at half price and taking all the hit because it’s a loss leader. I presume you know what that means - but for leftier pbers it’s an item that is sold at zero profit or a loss because it brings people into the store where they will spend more on other stuff. It doesn’t mean it’s in the bargain bin you foaming cretins

    Amazon then has to match that. And so on

    Also being “number 1” generates massive buzz of its own. You then splash that all over the paperback and sell 3m copies

    Trust me, you might hate Boris but his book is a hit and his publishers will be happy and possibly delighted (depending on the structure of his deal)
    On a £30 RRP book, what do the retailer pay, £15? Because your original calc was based up on every retailer actually paying the £30, then eating £15 per book as the loss leader. I can't see that. I can see that they pay £15 and sell it at cost and claim the "its on massive discount", the classic HUT group strategy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    Unsurprising (now) news from the USA - Mr Trump has pulled out of yet another interview. That is I think four or five in a week. He also pulled out of a NRA rally. I've made a joke of this but it really is quite notable. Are they trying to cruise to victory or is he really so weak and vulnerable that his staff don't trust hium out on his own and are able to stop him over-ruling them. Just very odd. Meanwhile Harris and camp seem to be doing exactly what you would expect a campaign to do in a tight race. Even if you think you are ahead you should work and act like you are behind.

    It's interesting that this has flipped around from a month ago, where Harris was the one not doing interviews.Suggests that both campaigns now think Trump is slightly ahead (if you're ahead minimise the risks, if you're behind take more gambles)
    You got the sense from the Al Smith dinner that people expected him to win. He was being quite pally with Chuck Schumer.

    https://x.com/karluskap/status/1847081960566673439
    No he wasn't, he was simply rude to Schumer. His performance ignored the niceties of a normal Al Smith dinner and Trump just slagged everyone off except himself.

    There was a small noisy cabal of Trump fans. There wasn't much in the way of raucous applause, although neither were there the boos from 2016.

    Take off your Trump tinted spectacles.
    Harris had the best line of the night.
    And the good sense to be campaigning elsewhere instead of attending.

    'You get the sense' that was a win/win...
  • Boris Johnson is not a profound thinker, but he is a great, and sometimes quite imaginative, prose stylist.

    If only he'd stayed near somewhere like comic novels, theatre or T.V., without the sense of entitlement and omniscience that part of his background encouraged, ending up on him polluting public life, and politics.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
    I've read some very different views on that - and that was looong before Mr Johnson became PM or even Mayor.
    I think he's a good writer. Not a literary master of profound insight, but a very talented hack who can knock out erudite and easy to read comic material with ease.
    He's f*****' terrible. Florid language, self- aggrandisement and analogous nonsense.
    I think Boris is a very bright man (and he was a great editor and should have been a great PM) but I find some agreement with you

    His style can grate. When he nails it he nails it. He’s very funny when he gets it right

    But too often he lapses into lazy purple prose with hints of learning
    Spot on.
    Except he was never going to be anything but a poor PM (or a terrible one).
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,942

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    There is a long, long history of publishers paying well over the odds for political memoirs.

    It might be linked {Innocent face} to the phenomenon of people paying vast sums for ex-politicians to speak at their events.
    You all have no clue about the finances of publishing

    42,000 hardback copies at £30 = £1.2m in the first week (the discounters absorb the discount), and this is in the first week, and it is just Nielsen bookscan. You can add on more for books not monitored by bookscan

    Then we have commonwealth sales and English sales ex North America. Then paperback sales (usually magnitudes more than hardback). Then audio. Then life rights and movie rights. A canny publisher paying a large advance will have all of the first and a chunk of the latter

    It is entirely feasible they will earn out the £3m advance paid to Boris. If they have world rights including North America then they will be cockahoop and will make a very fat profit, if they have a share of this they will be chucklesome
    Nobody paid £30 though, it was £15 everywhere. Are you saying Amazon etc just eat that, so I presume made no money at all selling it?
    ITS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BESTSELLER. ITS A LOSS LEADER

    JESUS FUCKING CHRIST YOU MORONS
    I just find that a very odd business model. 50% discount from the get-go, which every book seller eats all of. Video games don't work that way, you get the discount down the line, but not if you have the hottest game on the market.
    Yeah well you’re fucking clueless on this so shut up
    Calm down. I didn't say I knew. I just said its a strange business model. Normally if you have the hottest product on the market, you do anything but discount it, some companies can get anyway with basically never discounting e.g. Apple.
    No, you tried to claim I was completely wrong about this book being a profitable success

    It is a big hit and his publishers will be happy. If they have North American rights or a share of them they will be ecstatic

    Books are unusual because they are sold in vastly different places. Especially supermarkets (a massive chunk of the market). Supermarkets only take big books and they only take them with an eye to massive sales. They are ruthless

    If Tesco sees that the memoirs of lembit opik are really popular on day 1 then by day 2 they will be selling them at half price and taking all the hit because it’s a loss leader. I presume you know what that means - but for leftier pbers it’s an item that is sold at zero profit or a loss because it brings people into the store where they will spend more on other stuff. It doesn’t mean it’s in the bargain bin you foaming cretins

    Amazon then has to match that. And so on

    Also being “number 1” generates massive buzz of its own. You then splash that all over the paperback and sell 3m copies

    Trust me, you might hate Boris but his book is a hit and his publishers will be happy and possibly delighted (depending on the structure of his deal)
    On a £30 RRP book, what do the retailer pay, £15? Because your original calc was based up on every retailer actually paying the £30, then eating £15 per book as the loss leader. I can't see that. I can see that they pay £15 and sell it at cost and claim the "its on massive discount", the classic HUT group strategy.
    The margin on books is pretty small, in my experience.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
    I've read some very different views on that - and that was looong before Mr Johnson became PM or even Mayor.
    I think he's a good writer. Not a literary master of profound insight, but a very talented hack who can knock out erudite and easy to read comic material with ease.
    He's f*****' terrible. Florid language, self- aggrandisement and analogous nonsense.
    I think Boris is a very bright man (and he was a great editor and should have been a great PM) but I find some agreement with you

    His style can grate. When he nails it he nails it. He’s very funny when he gets it right

    But too often he lapses into lazy purple prose with hints of learning
    Spot on.
    Except he was never going to be anything but a poor PM (or a terrible one).
    A poor PM, but a rich ex-PM.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,858
    Cookie said:

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
    Ex-PM writers: I think Churchill certainly and Disraeli probably (Boris is pretty bad after all, probably worse than Dizzy) would give him a run for his money.

    As to Boris's merits generally, Richard Evans's review of his book on Churchill isn't a bad place to start:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/2014/11/the-churchill-factor-review-boris-johnson-history-made-up
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,082
    algarkirk said:

    a

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Anyone posted today’s Techne poll yet?

    LAB: 28% (-1)
    CON: 25% (+1)
    RFM: 19% (=)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via @techneUK, 16-17 Oct.
    Changes w/ 9-10 Oct.


    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1847231455258124325?s=46

    Notable largely for having the lowest LabCon score of any poll yet. 53% vs 47% for the SPLORG.

    The SPLORG is drawing closer.

    And SPLORG is a monster that Lab/Con do not wish to discuss or draw attention to.

    While I think it is improbable that this massive downward trend for Lab+Con will continue - they are already down 6 points since the 2024 election and 29 points down from the 2017 GE, it is not at all impossible. A next thinkable phase is that just as the populist opinion has switched to declaring it will vote Reform, centrist opinion could combine around the LDs. If tnat occurred SPLORG could go over 50, and at that figure there is something like a tipping point which gets noticed more widely than the wonks and anoraks.
    I doubt it, the LDs are not trusted by centre left voters after the coalition and right of centre opponents of Labour will vote Tory or Reform still.

    At general elections the LD vote remains largely upper middle class centrist Remainers, it is Reform eating into the white working class vote however
    Yes, quite reasonable about the past. But the future does not always resemble it exactly. We would not have predicted that the Lab/Con combined level of support would drop from 82% to 53% (approx) in a very few years. Try this question: Who are centre left, centre right and centre voters to trust when they get disillusioned with Lab and Con? It isn't going to eb a new party; it isn't Reform and it isn't the hard left.

    Sherlock Holmes may apply here: "Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the case".
    Why not a new party?
    Ask Shirley Williams, Chuka Umunna, Ann Coffey etc and the voters.
    Reform was a new party, once.

    The SDP failed because tribal loyalty to Labour was still high.

    The current polling suggests that, Labour and the Conservatives are near their core vote, the Lib Dem’s aren’t seen as the answer. A bunch of people are trying Reform, but the party itself is limited in appeal.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
    I've read some very different views on that - and that was looong before Mr Johnson became PM or even Mayor.
    I think he's a good writer. Not a literary master of profound insight, but a very talented hack who can knock out erudite and easy to read comic material with ease.
    Yes, I wasn't trying to paint him as a literary genius. But 'a talented hack whi can knock out erudite and easy to reaf comic material with ease' places him streets ahead of most politicians, and also comfortably in the top half of those who are paid to write. I would suggest a large majority of people who demur do so because Boris vexes them so very much that they cannot feel positively about anything associated with him.
    Spot on
    "I couldn't disagree with you less!"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    Pro_Rata said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    28% is astonishingly low for a party that won an election just 3 months ago.

    33% is an astonishingly low figure to win a GE with. Unprecedented to my knowledge.

    And yet, and yet (as I have mentioned before), the highest vote share for any single party in the 15 largest European democracies west of the old iron curtain.
    33.7%, NOT 33%!
  • Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
    I've read some very different views on that - and that was looong before Mr Johnson became PM or even Mayor.
    I think he's a good writer. Not a literary master of profound insight, but a very talented hack who can knock out erudite and easy to read comic material with ease.
    He's f*****' terrible. Florid language, self- aggrandisement and analogous nonsense.
    I think Boris is a very bright man (and he was a great editor and should have been a great PM) but I find some agreement with you

    His style can grate. When he nails it he nails it. He’s very funny when he gets it right

    But too often he lapses into lazy purple prose with hints of learning
    Somebody once said Boris Johnson’s best work is when he doesn’t think about it but is middling when he spends time thinking about it.
  • algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
    Ex-PM writers: I think Churchill certainly and Disraeli probably (Boris is pretty bad after all, probably worse than Dizzy) would give him a run for his money.

    As to Boris's merits generally, Richard Evans's review of his book on Churchill isn't a bad place to start:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/2014/11/the-churchill-factor-review-boris-johnson-history-made-up
    Yes, I think his big self delusion is that he can bestride very weighty topics, just as he thought he would be a great and serious prime minister.

    If he'd he grown up in some sort equivalent family in Paris, he might have emerged as some sort of legendary comic filmmaker, or artistic troublemaker of the type they love, without the over-reach of institutions like Eton encouraging his "world King" tendencies, from childhood.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,268

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
    I've read some very different views on that - and that was looong before Mr Johnson became PM or even Mayor.
    I think he's a good writer. Not a literary master of profound insight, but a very talented hack who can knock out erudite and easy to read comic material with ease.
    He's f*****' terrible. Florid language, self- aggrandisement and analogous nonsense.
    I think Boris is a very bright man (and he was a great editor and should have been a great PM) but I find some agreement with you

    His style can grate. When he nails it he nails it. He’s very funny when he gets it right

    But too often he lapses into lazy purple prose with hints of learning
    Somebody once said Boris Johnson’s best work is when he doesn’t think about it but is middling when he spends time thinking about it.
    That reminds me of Norman St John-Stevas on Thatcher: "The danger when Margaret speaks without thinking is that she says what she thinks."
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,858

    algarkirk said:

    a

    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    Anyone posted today’s Techne poll yet?

    LAB: 28% (-1)
    CON: 25% (+1)
    RFM: 19% (=)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 7% (=)
    SNP: 2% (=)

    Via @techneUK, 16-17 Oct.
    Changes w/ 9-10 Oct.


    https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1847231455258124325?s=46

    Notable largely for having the lowest LabCon score of any poll yet. 53% vs 47% for the SPLORG.

    The SPLORG is drawing closer.

    And SPLORG is a monster that Lab/Con do not wish to discuss or draw attention to.

    While I think it is improbable that this massive downward trend for Lab+Con will continue - they are already down 6 points since the 2024 election and 29 points down from the 2017 GE, it is not at all impossible. A next thinkable phase is that just as the populist opinion has switched to declaring it will vote Reform, centrist opinion could combine around the LDs. If tnat occurred SPLORG could go over 50, and at that figure there is something like a tipping point which gets noticed more widely than the wonks and anoraks.
    I doubt it, the LDs are not trusted by centre left voters after the coalition and right of centre opponents of Labour will vote Tory or Reform still.

    At general elections the LD vote remains largely upper middle class centrist Remainers, it is Reform eating into the white working class vote however
    Yes, quite reasonable about the past. But the future does not always resemble it exactly. We would not have predicted that the Lab/Con combined level of support would drop from 82% to 53% (approx) in a very few years. Try this question: Who are centre left, centre right and centre voters to trust when they get disillusioned with Lab and Con? It isn't going to eb a new party; it isn't Reform and it isn't the hard left.

    Sherlock Holmes may apply here: "Once you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains however improbable must be the case".
    Why not a new party?
    Ask Shirley Williams, Chuka Umunna, Ann Coffey etc and the voters.
    Reform was a new party, once.

    The SDP failed because tribal loyalty to Labour was still high.

    The current polling suggests that, Labour and the Conservatives are near their core vote, the Lib Dem’s aren’t seen as the answer. A bunch of people are trying Reform, but the party itself is limited in appeal.
    Yes. Reform is the successor of UKIP etc, which was uniquely formed out of the absence of a mainstream party representing a real and significant viewpoint about our place in Europe. In that sense its origin is similar to that of the SNP. This will only be repeated if the circumstances are right.

    There is no similar gap in the centre. The gap is about disappointment and competence not fundamental policy. The LDs could of course create a real new centrist position, just as UKIP did elsewhere, by absolutely committing to do all things necessary to rejoin the SM (with FOM of course) and the CU.

    It is not completely impossible that they will do this as their next big move. But of course there are risks in this too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Nigelb said:
    Oh god I had those!!! The food in Osaka is sensational

    Up there with Phnom Penh and Singapore
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
    I've read some very different views on that - and that was looong before Mr Johnson became PM or even Mayor.
    I think he's a good writer. Not a literary master of profound insight, but a very talented hack who can knock out erudite and easy to read comic material with ease.
    He's f*****' terrible. Florid language, self- aggrandisement and analogous nonsense.
    I think Boris is a very bright man (and he was a great editor and should have been a great PM) but I find some agreement with you

    His style can grate. When he nails it he nails it. He’s very funny when he gets it right

    But too often he lapses into lazy purple prose with hints of learning
    Somebody once said Boris Johnson’s best work is when he doesn’t think about it but is middling when he spends time thinking about it.
    Isn’t that true of all of us? And 95% of cognitive work? Certainly creative work

    As Picasso said, the best painting is done when you treat it as play, like a child doing colourful daubs for fun. You don’t worry what others might think, it is pure ludic pleasure. You are in “the zone”

  • Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is that dollar weighted ?
    If so, it will be skewed by a few very large donors.

    The 2020/2024 difference is still notable.
    From the article it sounds as though it isn't. It is just the number of executives that fall into each category.
    Yes, this.

    ..One of the biggest causes of this shift was an unforced error by the Biden administration: the appointment of Gary Gensler as the head of the SEC. I don't think Biden did this because he was anti-crypto. He just wasn't paying attention...
    https://x.com/paulg/status/1847246542664560998


    Trump, of course, only has a vague clue what crypto is, as they started giving him money.
    I'm curious why it was an error.

    The SEC has taken a very light touch with crypto, not the other way around as that Tweeter implies.

    The crypto market is still full of scams and fraud.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,506
    We are spoiled by how good some AI things have become that this looks really bad.

    https://x.com/synthesiaIO/status/1847239796239872377
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:
    Oh god I had those!!! The food in Osaka is sensational

    Up there with Phnom Penh and Singapore
    All the more reason I will have to visit.
    Japanese cuisine suits me.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,437

    kenObi said:

    Did I read the other day (on Beeb website I think) that the government is considering copying the EU in banning the sale of devices that don't have standard charging cables?

    I really don't understand why anyone would be so keen to retard technological progress

    I get the impression that some people would still prefer we had a regional time difference for Bristol.

    Standardization is generally good and helped drive the industrial revelution.

    One of my heroes is Joseph Whitworth.

    Blanche would be screaming: "Why standardise screw threads!!! They're stifling innovation!"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Whitworth
    Standards can be good. They can also be bad.

    Whitworth screw threads succeeded because they were well thought out and easy to produce.

    As a counter example, in the US, there was an attempt at standardising on a EV plug. The standard chosen and backed by government subsidies was terrible. As a result of that and a low build out rate, it is being ditched for J3400 NACS
    You miss an important issue: the openness of a standard. In the case of Apple, they would charge an arm and a leg to include hardware with ports according to their standards. And I mean at the profiteering level.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,888
    ...

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    ....

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson’s memoir, Unleashed, sold 42,528 copies in its opening week after being published on 10 October, making it the bestselling book of last week.

    I am sure our correspondent from the Flint Knappers Weekly told us this was flying off the shelves at a rate similar to Prince Harry's Spare....which sold 10x in the first week. I think might have fallen for some spin from the insiders trying to save face.

    40k is more than Cameron and everybody since, but its not Thatcher or Blair level. They are never getting their £3 million back.

    Currently half price on Amazon.

    Who is the publisher that swallowed Johnson's shtick?
    Half price in WH Smiths at Edinburgh Waverley yesterday, but more interest discernible in the Journal of Knitting and Crochet Studies and the like.
    New books are often heavily discounted in WHS though, aren't they.
    I don't believe he holds the star quality value he once held. During peak Johnson circa 2020/21 the book would have sold like hot cakes.

    Unless he has employed a ghost writer the book is most likely unreadable. Despite the Emperor's New Clothes reputation as a great literary figure, Johnson as both a raconteur and writer is running on empty and has been for years.
    Oh come off it. He is streets ahead of any other ex-PM as a writer. That was his job before politics. He is just so far beyond the pale for you that you cannot conceive he has any positive qualities whatsoever.
    I've read some very different views on that - and that was looong before Mr Johnson became PM or even Mayor.
    I think he's a good writer. Not a literary master of profound insight, but a very talented hack who can knock out erudite and easy to read comic material with ease.
    He's f*****' terrible. Florid language, self- aggrandisement and analogous nonsense.
    I think Boris is a very bright man (and he was a great editor and should have been a great PM) but I find some agreement with you

    His style can grate. When he nails it he nails it. He’s very funny when he gets it right

    But too often he lapses into lazy purple prose with hints of learning
    Somebody once said Boris Johnson’s best work is when he doesn’t think about it but is middling when he spends time thinking about it.
    He's a simply dreadful writer "when he spends time thinking about it". Hackneyed cliches, social stereotyping, othering and a bucket load of self- absorption. His "comedy" is without irony dated slapstick in the style of Benny Hill. He'd have raised the roof in the Carry On era however for a post Young Ones audience, except for his devotees he comes across as a boorish w***er.
  • I've tried reading "Millions of women are waiting to meet you" ..still haven't got past page 50 or so..😚🥴
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,496
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:
    Oh god I had those!!! The food in Osaka is sensational

    Up there with Phnom Penh and Singapore
    All the more reason I will have to visit.
    Japanese cuisine suits me.
    Have you not been?

    Then yes you must. If you liked Korea you will love Japan. It’s Korea to the max. Even stranger and even more exotic and even safer and even more history and even better food

    The food so far has been stupendous. I might have to put Japan back at number one on my world food list. It was Vietnam
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is that dollar weighted ?
    If so, it will be skewed by a few very large donors.

    The 2020/2024 difference is still notable.
    From the article it sounds as though it isn't. It is just the number of executives that fall into each category.
    Yes, this.

    ..One of the biggest causes of this shift was an unforced error by the Biden administration: the appointment of Gary Gensler as the head of the SEC. I don't think Biden did this because he was anti-crypto. He just wasn't paying attention...
    https://x.com/paulg/status/1847246542664560998


    Trump, of course, only has a vague clue what crypto is, as they started giving him money.
    I'm curious why it was an error.

    The SEC has taken a very light touch with crypto, not the other way around as that Tweeter implies.

    The crypto market is still full of scams and fraud.
    From the POV of the crypto bros, who want no interference from the SEC, it is.
    Congress apparently agrees.

    https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/08/01/gary-gensler-is-the-most-controversial-man-in-american-finance

    https://www.cato.org/commentary/gary-gensler-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-may
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,506
    edited October 18
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,173
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:
    Oh god I had those!!! The food in Osaka is sensational

    Up there with Phnom Penh and Singapore
    All the more reason I will have to visit.
    Japanese cuisine suits me.
    Have you not been?

    Then yes you must. If you liked Korea you will love Japan. It’s Korea to the max. Even stranger and even more exotic and even safer and even more history and even better food

    The food so far has been stupendous. I might have to put Japan back at number one on my world food list. It was Vietnam
    No. It's high up on my list.
This discussion has been closed.