Had Rishi Sunak waited for a November election then PB and the media would have been focussing on the fact that it would have been fifty years since a Labour leader other than Tony Blair won an election.
I was 14 and certainly followed both 1974 elections.
My detailed memories of the events have unfortunately though been overwritten by recent important information such as which parking app I need to use for which carpark. 100 billion neurons only goes so far.
I was 14 and certainly followed both 1974 elections.
My detailed memories of the events have unfortunately though been overwritten by recent important information such as which parking app I need to use for which carpark. 100 billion neurons only goes so far.
I was much the same age. I only remember a school colleague commenting to me quite unprompted on the shock and horror felt by our more Tory masters.
Which was quite remarkable for him. And in turn emphasised the nature of the event.
In 1974 I was 2 years into a new business, was immediate past captain of the golf club, was very involved with the PTA and other charities, and we were expecting our 3rd child - so not a lot of time for politics but I did help in the election campaign to see the late Wyn Roberts retain Conwy for the conservatives
I was very young but do remember going with my mother to the local Liberal committee rooms in the middle of one of the 1974 elections. She was helping out. Piles of leaflets everywhere.
The 1974 elections are the first ones that I remember.
My memories are mostly of the first one, and the speculation that the Liberals under Thorpe would support Heath continuing.
Of the second one, I remember the SNP doing well, and in conjunction with the boom in North Sea Oil demands for independence. I think this was the beginning of it becoming a serious proposition.
Then I moved to America so can remember the 1976 US election.
“My father-in-law lives just outside of Asheville, NC…And he has refused all FEMA help because he's a hardcore Trumper. He literally believes that if he accepts anything from FEMA they're going to take his house.”
Trump's lies about hurricane relief have real consequences.
Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.
Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
John McLaughlin is a pro-Trump pollster and he is a frequent guest on Newsmax which as we know is strongly pro-Trump.
I would recommend a large bucket of salt when considering the above polling....
I don't understand why William would choose to post clearly biased polling on a political betting site that relies on accurate data. Is he trolling? Is he wishcasting?
Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.
Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
That pollster has a rating of 0.5 out of 3 . These polls are designed to help the “ stop the steal “ narrative that Trump will get his moronic supporters to swallow.
I was living on a farm in claret country, scraping a living picking grapes. Heard the results on long wave, interspersed with martial music from Radio Tirana. The weather was dreadful: nostalgie de la boue. If anyone offers you a bottle of St Emilion '74 don't touch it.
Is it really only 3 weeks next Tuesday to the US election?
The way time flies we will soon know just what the US has voted for [ and the members of the conservative party]
*Pedant hat ON*
No, because voting has already started in a large number of states.
In fact, I think only Alabama doesn't have some form of early voting (and if that goes blue then it really will be a shellacking that Landon would blink at for Trump).
Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.
Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
John McLaughlin is a pro-Trump pollster and he is a frequent guest on Newsmax which as we know is strongly pro-Trump.
I would recommend a large bucket of salt when considering the above polling....
I don't understand why William would choose to post clearly biased polling on a political betting site that relies on accurate data. Is he trolling? Is he wishcasting?
I think @williamglenn is trying to balance the general posting of pro-Harris polls. That said, the fact that he appears to never publish ones that are favourable to her does make him look rather partisan.
FWIW, McClaughlin published one of the worst polls of 2022, forecasting an incredibly tight Senate race is Connecticut, with the Republican just 3 points behind.
My memories of 74 (I was 13) were power cuts for the first election, followed by some discussions between Heath and Thorpe. I remember being off school on the results day for October, watching the results come through.
It was during then when I realised how unfair the voting system was. Perhaps it was my naievity of age. It was after then that my affinity to the liberals started.
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
I was 25 and have no memory of the GE at all. Otherwise occupied. I would certainly have cast a vote, but no idea which way.
It was a good decade. I progressed from undergraduate to managing director. Later on friends would sometimes accuse me of being a Thatcherite to which I'd reply "No I'm not, I'm a Callaghanite".
Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.
Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
John McLaughlin is a pro-Trump pollster and he is a frequent guest on Newsmax which as we know is strongly pro-Trump.
I would recommend a large bucket of salt when considering the above polling....
I don't understand why William would choose to post clearly biased polling on a political betting site that relies on accurate data. Is he trolling? Is he wishcasting?
I think @williamglenn is trying to balance the general posting of pro-Harris polls. That said, the fact that he appears to never publish ones that are favourable to her does make him look rather partisan.
FWIW, McClaughlin published one of the worst polls of 2022, forecasting an incredibly tight Senate race is Connecticut, with the Republican just 3 points behind.
In the end, the Dems won by... 15 points.
So if it's showing these races as very tight indeed, Trump is stuffed?
My memories of 74 (I was 13) were power cuts for the first election, followed by some discussions between Heath and Thorpe. I remember being off school on the results day for October, watching the results come through.
It was during then when I realised how unfair the voting system was. Perhaps it was my naievity of age. It was after then that my affinity to the liberals started.
An unstable and unreliable electricity/energy grid is a real possibility by the time of the next election.
Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.
Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
John McLaughlin is a pro-Trump pollster and he is a frequent guest on Newsmax which as we know is strongly pro-Trump.
I would recommend a large bucket of salt when considering the above polling....
I don't understand why William would choose to post clearly biased polling on a political betting site that relies on accurate data. Is he trolling? Is he wishcasting?
I think @williamglenn is trying to balance the general posting of pro-Harris polls. That said, the fact that he appears to never publish ones that are favourable to her does make him look rather partisan.
FWIW, McClaughlin published one of the worst polls of 2022, forecasting an incredibly tight Senate race is Connecticut, with the Republican just 3 points behind.
In the end, the Dems won by... 15 points.
Posting clearly dodgy polling doesn't seem to be in the spirit of the site.
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
Is it really only 3 weeks next Tuesday to the US election?
The way time flies we will soon know just what the US has voted for [ and the members of the conservative party]
*Pedant hat ON*
No, because voting has already started in a large number of states.
In fact, I think only Alabama doesn't have some form of early voting (and if that goes blue then it really will be a shellacking that Landon would blink at for Trump).
*Pedant hat OFF*
That'll be those ultra-hurricanes the BBC app has been forecasting.
538 ranks McLaughlin at 282 out of 282 ! I expect we’ll see a flood of these Trump arse licking polls over the next few weeks .
I don’t understand why a company would publish such trash. Don’t they make their cash from non-political clients based on the reputation from being right about politics? That being the case, surely doing this is bad for business?
The Tories are going to change their party rules to make it harder for MPs to trigger a no confidence vote in the leader.
Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick are the only two candidates left in the current leadership contest and the winner should benefit from the change, which will affect the number of MPs needed to demand a vote of confidence in the leader.
Under the current system, a vote takes place if 15% of Tory MPs submit a letter to the chair of the 1922 Committee demanding one. MPs are allowed to do this anonymously.
When the Tories were in government, that meant around 50 MPs or more had to want a vote for one to happen. But now there are only 121 Conservative MPs meaning that, without a rule change, just 19 MPs would be enough to trigger a contest.
In an interview with GB News, Bob Blackman, the chair of the 1922 Committee said the threshold for a no confidence vote would be lifted, probably to 30% or more. He said:
"Now we will amend those rules to increase the threshold. I am not going to say what it is going to be but I suspect it will be at least to 30%, to enable a position where there will have to be a very strong opinion of the parliamentary party."
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -
Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.
Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.
There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.
Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.
Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
William was funny once. These days he is just a garden variety Trumpian shill.
He always has been, see 2016.
It's his about turn over the EU that has changed.
Oh indeed, but an amusing Trumpian. Now it’s just cherry-picked dubious polling. Not great on a betting site.
1. He's smarter than you, and occasionally rather amusing
2. This site has a RIDICULOUS anti-Trump bias. I don't just mean most here want Trump to lose, I mean people consistently and only post polls, news, insights, opinions - that favour Harris and the Dems and, even more, show what an abject eejit Trump is and how he is BOUND to lose, because of this that and the other and blah blah bleurgh
PB is ideally neutral, in toto, so people can draw conclusions and make bets. If @williamglenn is boosting Trump then he is providing a salutary counter-service to us all
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -
Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.
Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.
There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.
Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.
Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
William was funny once. These days he is just a garden variety Trumpian shill.
He always has been, see 2016.
It's his about turn over the EU that has changed.
Oh indeed, but an amusing Trumpian. Now it’s just cherry-picked dubious polling. Not great on a betting site.
1. He's smarter than you, and occasionally rather amusing
2. This site has a RIDICULOUS anti-Trump bias. I don't just mean most here want Trump to lose, I mean people consistently and only post polls, news, insights, opinions - that favour Harris and the Dems and, even more, show what an abject eejit Trump is and how he is BOUND to lose, because of this that and the other and blah blah bleurgh
PB is ideally neutral, in toto, so people can draw conclusions and make bets. If @williamglenn is boosting Trump then he is providing a salutary counter-service to us all
LOL. I’m surprised you can afford all those martinis on your budget,
My memories of 74 (I was 13) were power cuts for the first election, followed by some discussions between Heath and Thorpe. I remember being off school on the results day for October, watching the results come through.
It was during then when I realised how unfair the voting system was. Perhaps it was my naievity of age. It was after then that my affinity to the liberals started.
My recollection of those days was settling down to watch Thunderbirds, looked forward to all week, and shortly after it started there being a power-cut and a blank screen. Trauma off the scale.
Must have been enough to turn a whole cohort of 9 year olds into life-long Tories.
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -
Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.
Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.
There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.
Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.
This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.
And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.
And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?
As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.
It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.
Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
William was funny once. These days he is just a garden variety Trumpian shill.
He always has been, see 2016.
It's his about turn over the EU that has changed.
Oh indeed, but an amusing Trumpian. Now it’s just cherry-picked dubious polling. Not great on a betting site.
1. He's smarter than you, and occasionally rather amusing
2. This site has a RIDICULOUS anti-Trump bias. I don't just mean most here want Trump to lose, I mean people consistently and only post polls, news, insights, opinions - that favour Harris and the Dems and, even more, show what an abject eejit Trump is and how he is BOUND to lose, because of this that and the other and blah blah bleurgh
PB is ideally neutral, in toto, so people can draw conclusions and make bets. If @williamglenn is boosting Trump then he is providing a salutary counter-service to us all
The day PB doesn't have a massive net preference for the horror that is Donald Trump to come a cropper is the day it ceases to be a place where intelligent, good-hearted people who are into politics and betting meet to chew the fat.
I just never could abide the misuse of apostrophes.
It can be quite tricky to get it right always - I certainly don't. I have no clue about the proper use of colons, semi-colons and hyphens.
I sometimes get the too/to/two and their/they're/there wrong too - somehow I think of my sentences as to how they sound rather than otherwise. I don't usually get these things wrong, but sometimes.
Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.
Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
William was funny once. These days he is just a garden variety Trumpian shill.
He always has been, see 2016.
It's his about turn over the EU that has changed.
Oh indeed, but an amusing Trumpian. Now it’s just cherry-picked dubious polling. Not great on a betting site.
1. He's smarter than you, and occasionally rather amusing
2. This site has a RIDICULOUS anti-Trump bias. I don't just mean most here want Trump to lose, I mean people consistently and only post polls, news, insights, opinions - that favour Harris and the Dems and, even more, show what an abject eejit Trump is and how he is BOUND to lose, because of this that and the other and blah blah bleurgh
PB is ideally neutral, in toto, so people can draw conclusions and make bets. If @williamglenn is boosting Trump then he is providing a salutary counter-service to us all
I don't think I have ever seen williamglenn post anything to indicate some kind of personal support for Trump, but is consistently reposting other information that shows that Trump may be doing better and have a wider appeal than people assume. So actually it is contributing in a constructive way to the debate on a political betting website.
The problem is that a lot of people who post regularly, so maybe 80% of the comments, regurgitate the dominant narrative about Trump in an antagonistic way, and in doing so are basically repeating propaganda, making the whole discussion pointless.
The truth is, all of this polling is so much BS not just because it includes random partisan hacks for both sides plucking figures out of their arses but because everything hinges on turnout.
Which is why any option from a narrow Trump win to a Harris landslide is still possible.
Sounds a bit ghoulish, but do we know how the hurricane will affect Florida from that point of view? How many ballots will have been issued? How many returned? How many kept safely and how many destroyed?
Florida was looking mighty close. It's hard to believe this won't have some impact, especially if it disrupts voting on the day.
This will of course lead The Orange Haired One and Elon PG Musk to claim the Dems arranged the hurricane...
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -
Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.
Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.
There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.
Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.
This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.
And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.
And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?
As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.
It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
I remember the 90s. People got mugged in broad daylight all the time. We look back on it as a golden age. People rioted regularly too. Your first paragraph is belied by data, including the BCS which is immune from crime recording biases.
Your later paragraphs - about the seeming economic death spiral we’ve entered, essentially ever since the 2008 financial crisis - are more on point.
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -
Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.
Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.
There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.
Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.
This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.
And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.
And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?
As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.
It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
I now believe we need a hard right government. Whether that's the Tories under a hard right leader, or Reform, or a new party entirely, who knows
It is needed, it is also inevitable. This shit is happening across Europe. Europeans can look at Dubai and Singapore and they can see that a no-fucking-nonsense government which strangles muggers and has a "tough" attitude to all crime especially imported migrant crime looks evermore appealing, and evermore prosperous
It will happen when white women, belatedly, swing Right. When they realise that this no-borders happy clappy multikulti bollocks means cities where they cannot safely walk the streets by day, let alone by night
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -
Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.
Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.
There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.
Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.
This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.
And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.
And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?
As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.
It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
I now believe we need a hard right government. Whether that's the Tories under a hard right leader, or Reform, or a new party entirely, who knows
It is needed, it is also inevitable. This shit is happening across Europe. Europeans can look at Dubai and Singapore and they can see that a no-fucking-nonsense government which strangles muggers and has a "tough" attitude to all crime especially imported migrant crime looks evermore appealing, and evermore prosperous
It will happen when white women, belatedly, swing Right. When they realise that this no-borders happy clappy multikulti bollocks means cities where they cannot safely walk the streets by day, let alone by night
I can understand why Italy has a hard right government after I was mugged in Rome earlier this year after getting off a night bus.
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
That's the difficult issue to solve: how do you avoid a significantly worsening dependency ratio, while not overloading local services and communities?
There's no easy answer, but it would definitely be better if we actually discussed the issue.
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -
Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.
Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.
There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.
Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.
This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.
And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.
And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?
As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.
It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
London is definitely the very last place in the U.K. where you can hope to earn a decent salary. That far, I agree with you.
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -
Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.
Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.
There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.
Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.
This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.
And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.
And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?
As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.
It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
I now believe we need a hard right government. Whether that's the Tories under a hard right leader, or Reform, or a new party entirely, who knows
It is needed, it is also inevitable. This shit is happening across Europe. Europeans can look at Dubai and Singapore and they can see that a no-fucking-nonsense government which strangles muggers and has a "tough" attitude to all crime especially imported migrant crime looks evermore appealing, and evermore prosperous
It will happen when white women, belatedly, swing Right. When they realise that this no-borders happy clappy multikulti bollocks means cities where they cannot safely walk the streets by day, let alone by night
"I now believe we need a hard right government."
Has any hard right government ever been a success?
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -
Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.
Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.
There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.
Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.
This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.
And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.
And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?
As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.
It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
I remember the 90s. People got mugged in broad daylight all the time. We look back on it as a golden age. People rioted regularly too. Your first paragraph is belied by data, including the BCS which is immune from crime recording biases.
Your later paragraphs - about the seeming economic death spiral we’ve entered, essentially ever since the 2008 financial crisis - are more on point.
People also forget that certain crimes - like burglary - have almost entirely disappeared in the last forty years.
In 1974 I was 2 years into a new business, was immediate past captain of the golf club, was very involved with the PTA and other charities, and we were expecting our 3rd child - so not a lot of time for politics but I did help in the election campaign to see the late Wyn Roberts retain Conwy for the conservatives
The Labour candidate at that election, D. Ben Rees, is still around.
The truth is, all of this polling is so much BS not just because it includes random partisan hacks for both sides plucking figures out of their arses but because everything hinges on turnout.
Which is why any option from a narrow Trump win to a Harris landslide is still possible.
Sounds a bit ghoulish, but do we know how the hurricane will affect Florida from that point of view? How many ballots will have been issued? How many returned? How many kept safely and how many destroyed?
Florida was looking mighty close. It's hard to believe this won't have some impact, especially if it disrupts voting on the day.
This will of course lead The Orange Haired One and Elon PG Musk to claim the Dems arranged the hurricane...
Florida doesn't look close to me, looks pretty safe orange sadly.
The truth is, all of this polling is so much BS not just because it includes random partisan hacks for both sides plucking figures out of their arses but because everything hinges on turnout.
Which is why any option from a narrow Trump win to a Harris landslide is still possible.
Sounds a bit ghoulish, but do we know how the hurricane will affect Florida from that point of view? How many ballots will have been issued? How many returned? How many kept safely and how many destroyed?
Florida was looking mighty close. It's hard to believe this won't have some impact, especially if it disrupts voting on the day.
This will of course lead The Orange Haired One and Elon PG Musk to claim the Dems arranged the hurricane...
I saw this the other day. Looks like a low turnout in the USA, not sure though who that's good for.
The truth is, all of this polling is so much BS not just because it includes random partisan hacks for both sides plucking figures out of their arses but because everything hinges on turnout.
Which is why any option from a narrow Trump win to a Harris landslide is still possible.
Sounds a bit ghoulish, but do we know how the hurricane will affect Florida from that point of view? How many ballots will have been issued? How many returned? How many kept safely and how many destroyed?
Florida was looking mighty close. It's hard to believe this won't have some impact, especially if it disrupts voting on the day.
This will of course lead The Orange Haired One and Elon PG Musk to claim the Dems arranged the hurricane...
Thankfully the hurricane did less damage than feared and the authorities anticipate flooding and damage of election offices so normally take precautions . It’s far enough out from the election to give them time to address lost mail in ballots . Of course though for those effected voting might not be a big priority . In terms of which areas were worst effected most were GOP leaning areas , Tampa which leans Dem was spared severe flooding as the eye tracked just to the south so caused offshore winds.
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -
Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.
Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.
There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.
Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.
This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.
And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.
And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?
As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.
It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
I remember the 90s. People got mugged in broad daylight all the time. We look back on it as a golden age. People rioted regularly too. Your first paragraph is belied by data, including the BCS which is immune from crime recording biases.
Your later paragraphs - about the seeming economic death spiral we’ve entered, essentially ever since the 2008 financial crisis - are more on point.
People also forget that certain crimes - like burglary - have almost entirely disappeared in the last forty years.
They have?
So when I was woken up and went downstairs and found someone in my house whom I came face-to-face with before he ran out the back door (which had the key in it on the inside, he'd crowbarred open the kitchen window making a clattering noise which is what had woken me up) - what crime is that classed as?
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
The truth is, all of this polling is so much BS not just because it includes random partisan hacks for both sides plucking figures out of their arses but because everything hinges on turnout.
Which is why any option from a narrow Trump win to a Harris landslide is still possible.
Sounds a bit ghoulish, but do we know how the hurricane will affect Florida from that point of view? How many ballots will have been issued? How many returned? How many kept safely and how many destroyed?
Florida was looking mighty close. It's hard to believe this won't have some impact, especially if it disrupts voting on the day.
This will of course lead The Orange Haired One and Elon PG Musk to claim the Dems arranged the hurricane...
I saw this the other day. Looks like a low turnout in the USA, not sure though who that's good for.
If that is correct, it probably hurts Trump. Harris' base is motivated for a mixture of reasons - abortion, Trump's crimes, Republican loathsomeness and her gender/race among others (it's striking she does well when playing the identity card). The indications are that Trump needs a higher turnout in his target groups to do well as he's toxic to independents.
But - that's a big 'if.' I distrust all US polling on principle.
Finger in the air says everything is blowing due Harris, but that could change.
SPENDING CUTS The French government will cut 2,200 jobs. The headcount for teachers, in particular, will drop, along with the expected drop in the number of pupils, government officials said. France will cut its foreign aid budget by 1.3 billion euros. Subsidies for apprentices and other jobs will be cut by 2.1 billion euros. Green subsidies, in particular those for insulation and the purchase of electric cars, will be cut by 1.9 billion euros. The planned increase of pensions due to inflation on Jan. 1 will be postponed by six months, saving 3.6 billion euros. TAX HIKES Big companies France's largest companies with revenue exceeding 1 billion euros will pay an additional tax on their profits. The tax is expected to raise 8 billion euros and, if approved, would affect 440 companies. Wealthy individuals Individuals earning more than 250,000 euros a year will see a temporary increase in income tax, and a minimum tax of 20% will be introduced for those households only, to prevent the use of tax loopholes, raising 2 billion euros per year. Air transport France will raise a tax on airplane tickets and private jets. The amount, currently being discussed with the industry, will be added in an amendment to the budget bill during parliamentary debates. France currently has a tax of 2.6 euros per flight, lower than in Britain or Germany, government officials said.
Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.
Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
William was funny once. These days he is just a garden variety Trumpian shill.
He always has been, see 2016.
It's his about turn over the EU that has changed.
Oh indeed, but an amusing Trumpian. Now it’s just cherry-picked dubious polling. Not great on a betting site.
1. He's smarter than you, and occasionally rather amusing
2. This site has a RIDICULOUS anti-Trump bias. I don't just mean most here want Trump to lose, I mean people consistently and only post polls, news, insights, opinions - that favour Harris and the Dems and, even more, show what an abject eejit Trump is and how he is BOUND to lose, because of this that and the other and blah blah bleurgh
PB is ideally neutral, in toto, so people can draw conclusions and make bets. If @williamglenn is boosting Trump then he is providing a salutary counter-service to us all
Trump is a perfect arsehole, he should be in an orange suit. A real wrong un.
Remember taking a young mother and her baby to the polling station in her old area of residence. Little fellah stayed quite happily on my knee whilst she sent into vote. Other than that little else, Al;most everyone expected Labour to win but were surprised at the lower than expected vote share, resulting in a closer result than forecast. Polls got it wrong again. Something never changes.Other than that cannot really recall anything if any great significance..
Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.
Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
William was funny once. These days he is just a garden variety Trumpian shill.
He always has been, see 2016.
It's his about turn over the EU that has changed.
Oh indeed, but an amusing Trumpian. Now it’s just cherry-picked dubious polling. Not great on a betting site.
1. He's smarter than you, and occasionally rather amusing
2. This site has a RIDICULOUS anti-Trump bias. I don't just mean most here want Trump to lose, I mean people consistently and only post polls, news, insights, opinions - that favour Harris and the Dems and, even more, show what an abject eejit Trump is and how he is BOUND to lose, because of this that and the other and blah blah bleurgh
PB is ideally neutral, in toto, so people can draw conclusions and make bets. If @williamglenn is boosting Trump then he is providing a salutary counter-service to us all
Trump is a perfect arsehole, he should be in an orange suit. A real wrong un.
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -
Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.
Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.
There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.
Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.
This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.
And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.
And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?
As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.
It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
I now believe we need a hard right government. Whether that's the Tories under a hard right leader, or Reform, or a new party entirely, who knows
It is needed, it is also inevitable. This shit is happening across Europe. Europeans can look at Dubai and Singapore and they can see that a no-fucking-nonsense government which strangles muggers and has a "tough" attitude to all crime especially imported migrant crime looks evermore appealing, and evermore prosperous
It will happen when white women, belatedly, swing Right. When they realise that this no-borders happy clappy multikulti bollocks means cities where they cannot safely walk the streets by day, let alone by night
At last we're starting to get some flesh on the "hard right" Government meme.
It's a strong law-and-order Government - now, that can work in places like Dubai and Singapore but how would that operate in Britain or even London?
How many Police Officers would you need to enforce the kind of strict law and order policies those advocating "hard right" solutions would want - how many judges, how much extra prison capacity, how many extra Police stations? Who pays for all this and from where?
Are we looking at armed Police on every street corner? IF you are stupid or desperate enough to nick a sandwich from Wenzel's (or Popham's in your part of the world presumably), would the staff be able to detain you until the Police arrive? What about fare evasion or mobile phone theft?
Rather like simply wanting more houses built, it's a multi-faceted problem whose solutions would need detailed planning and the electorate would want to know the costs and the limitations on new Police powers - would people be allowed to protest against the new law and order legislation or would they be beaten up or worse if they tried (or dared)?
If I were being more cynical, I'd wonder if ten years of what you might describe as a socialist Government would crash the economy so much as to make the prospect of coming to Britain so utterly unappealing to even the most desperate migrant.
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -
Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.
Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.
There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.
Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.
This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.
And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.
And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?
As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.
It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
I now believe we need a hard right government. Whether that's the Tories under a hard right leader, or Reform, or a new party entirely, who knows
It is needed, it is also inevitable. This shit is happening across Europe. Europeans can look at Dubai and Singapore and they can see that a no-fucking-nonsense government which strangles muggers and has a "tough" attitude to all crime especially imported migrant crime looks evermore appealing, and evermore prosperous
It will happen when white women, belatedly, swing Right. When they realise that this no-borders happy clappy multikulti bollocks means cities where they cannot safely walk the streets by day, let alone by night
"I now believe we need a hard right government."
Has any hard right government ever been a success?
Er, yeah
Many many times
But for today: look at the UAE and Singapore. Arguably the most successful nations on the planet, esp given where they came from
The 1974 general elections also saw a 1 term Heath government lose to Labour with Heath unable to control the unions and inflation.
Starmer personality wise is similar to Heath
I don't recall much about Heath but memory does suggest a breadth of interest - yachting, conducting music - that leaves SKS appearing somewhat, um, ordinary.
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -
Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.
Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.
There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.
Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.
This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.
And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.
And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?
As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.
It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
I now believe we need a hard right government. Whether that's the Tories under a hard right leader, or Reform, or a new party entirely, who knows
It is needed, it is also inevitable. This shit is happening across Europe. Europeans can look at Dubai and Singapore and they can see that a no-fucking-nonsense government which strangles muggers and has a "tough" attitude to all crime especially imported migrant crime looks evermore appealing, and evermore prosperous
It will happen when white women, belatedly, swing Right. When they realise that this no-borders happy clappy multikulti bollocks means cities where they cannot safely walk the streets by day, let alone by night
"I now believe we need a hard right government."
Has any hard right government ever been a success?
Er, yeah
Many many times
But for today: look at the UAE and Singapore. Arguably the most successful nations on the planet, esp given where they came from
These are good examples, but they're small and very money rich states. I'm moving the goalposts, but the questions still stands.
The truth is, all of this polling is so much BS not just because it includes random partisan hacks for both sides plucking figures out of their arses but because everything hinges on turnout.
Which is why any option from a narrow Trump win to a Harris landslide is still possible.
Sounds a bit ghoulish, but do we know how the hurricane will affect Florida from that point of view? How many ballots will have been issued? How many returned? How many kept safely and how many destroyed?
Florida was looking mighty close. It's hard to believe this won't have some impact, especially if it disrupts voting on the day.
This will of course lead The Orange Haired One and Elon PG Musk to claim the Dems arranged the hurricane...
If there really is a weather army, their suspicion might be credible
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -
Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.
Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.
There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.
Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.
This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.
And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.
And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?
As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.
It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
I remember the 90s. People got mugged in broad daylight all the time. We look back on it as a golden age. People rioted regularly too. Your first paragraph is belied by data, including the BCS which is immune from crime recording biases.
Your later paragraphs - about the seeming economic death spiral we’ve entered, essentially ever since the 2008 financial crisis - are more on point.
People also forget that certain crimes - like burglary - have almost entirely disappeared in the last forty years.
They have?
So when I was woken up and went downstairs and found someone in my house whom I came face-to-face with before he ran out the back door (which had the key in it on the inside, he'd crowbarred open the kitchen window making a clattering noise which is what had woken me up) - what crime is that classed as?
I was guilty of exaggeration, for sure, but the stats from the BCS show a really dramatic decline in burglary levels - from 1.7 million in 1993 to 196,000 in the year ending in March 2023.
At last we're starting to get some flesh on the "hard right" Government meme.
It's a strong law-and-order Government - now, that can work in places like Dubai and Singapore but how would that operate in Britain or even London?
How many Police Officers would you need to enforce the kind of strict law and order policies those advocating "hard right" solutions would want - how many judges, how much extra prison capacity, how many extra Police stations? Who pays for all this and from where?
The 1974 general elections also saw a 1 term Heath government lose to Labour with Heath unable to control the unions and inflation.
Starmer personality wise is similar to Heath
I don't recall much about Heath but memory does suggest a breadth of interest - yachting, conducting music - that leaves SKS appearing somewhat, um, ordinary.
Ted had some very odd peccadilloes and epicurean tastes in all manner of interests*. Let's hope Starmer is less "interesting" under the circumstances.
*The football team that plays at the appropriately named Wankdorf Stadium springs to mind.
UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.
It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -
Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.
Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.
There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.
Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.
This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.
And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.
And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?
As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.
It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
I now believe we need a hard right government. Whether that's the Tories under a hard right leader, or Reform, or a new party entirely, who knows
It is needed, it is also inevitable. This shit is happening across Europe. Europeans can look at Dubai and Singapore and they can see that a no-fucking-nonsense government which strangles muggers and has a "tough" attitude to all crime especially imported migrant crime looks evermore appealing, and evermore prosperous
It will happen when white women, belatedly, swing Right. When they realise that this no-borders happy clappy multikulti bollocks means cities where they cannot safely walk the streets by day, let alone by night
"I now believe we need a hard right government."
Has any hard right government ever been a success?
Er, yeah
Many many times
But for today: look at the UAE and Singapore. Arguably the most successful nations on the planet, esp given where they came from
These are good examples, but they're small and very money rich states. I'm moving the goalposts, but the questions still stands.
Oh do fuck off. "Yes you're right but I still think you're wrong"
OK El Salvador
Brutally rightwing government
Now has possibly the lowest murder rate in the Western Hemisphere
Comments
My detailed memories of the events have unfortunately though been overwritten by recent important information such as which parking app I need to use for which carpark. 100 billion neurons only goes so far.
Harold Wilson's last hurrah.
Which was quite remarkable for him. And in turn emphasised the nature of the event.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24644065.uk-tory-contest-will-condemn-scottish-party-third-place-holyrood/
My memories are mostly of the first one, and the speculation that the Liberals under Thorpe would support Heath continuing.
Of the second one, I remember the SNP doing well, and in conjunction with the boom in North Sea Oil demands for independence. I think this was the beginning of it becoming a serious proposition.
Then I moved to America so can remember the 1976 US election.
#New General Election poll - Swing State's
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1
McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9
FT breaking news
Austin Uni has 23 staff.
@AccountableGOP
“My father-in-law lives just outside of Asheville, NC…And he has refused all FEMA help because he's a hardcore Trumper. He literally believes that if he accepts anything from FEMA they're going to take his house.”
Trump's lies about hurricane relief have real consequences.
https://x.com/AccountableGOP/status/1844417616116318420
Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
I would recommend a large bucket of salt when considering the above polling....
The way time flies we will soon know just what the US has voted for [ and the members of the conservative party]
I got the impression that general elections must be held every few months as that's what I had witnessed.
No, because voting has already started in a large number of states.
In fact, I think only Alabama doesn't have some form of early voting (and if that goes blue then it really will be a shellacking that Landon would blink at for Trump).
*Pedant hat OFF*
It's his about turn over the EU that has changed.
FWIW, McClaughlin published one of the worst polls of 2022, forecasting an incredibly tight Senate race is Connecticut, with the Republican just 3 points behind.
In the end, the Dems won by... 15 points.
It was during then when I realised how unfair the voting system was. Perhaps it was my naievity of age. It was after then that my affinity to the liberals started.
https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442
The Tories are going to change their party rules to make it harder for MPs to trigger a no confidence vote in the leader.
Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick are the only two candidates left in the current leadership contest and the winner should benefit from the change, which will affect the number of MPs needed to demand a vote of confidence in the leader.
Under the current system, a vote takes place if 15% of Tory MPs submit a letter to the chair of the 1922 Committee demanding one. MPs are allowed to do this anonymously.
When the Tories were in government, that meant around 50 MPs or more had to want a vote for one to happen. But now there are only 121 Conservative MPs meaning that, without a rule change, just 19 MPs would be enough to trigger a contest.
In an interview with GB News, Bob Blackman, the chair of the 1922 Committee said the threshold for a no confidence vote would be lifted, probably to 30% or more. He said:
"Now we will amend those rules to increase the threshold. I am not going to say what it is going to be but I suspect it will be at least to 30%, to enable a position where there will have to be a very strong opinion of the parliamentary party."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/oct/10/labour-workers-bill-jobs-keir-starmer-tory-party-leadership-jenrick-badenoch-uk-politics-live
(Yes, I know Trafalgar is guesswork rather than polling, before @rcs1000 picks me up on it)
https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#&place=country/GBR&statsVar=Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita
Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.
Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.
There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.
Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
2. This site has a RIDICULOUS anti-Trump bias. I don't just mean most here want Trump to lose, I mean people consistently and only post polls, news, insights, opinions - that favour Harris and the Dems and, even more, show what an abject eejit Trump is and how he is BOUND to lose, because of this that and the other and blah blah bleurgh
PB is ideally neutral, in toto, so people can draw conclusions and make bets. If @williamglenn is boosting Trump then he is providing a salutary counter-service to us all
Must have been enough to turn a whole cohort of 9 year olds into life-long Tories.
LOL.
(They were something a bit good back in the day)
Starmer personality wise is similar to Heath
🔵 Harris 51% (+2)
🔴 Trump 49%
YouGov #B - 1000 RV - 10/2
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1844223199690801448
This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.
And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.
And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?
As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.
It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
Sadly, there it falls down.
Long may that day be postponed.
I sometimes get the too/to/two and their/they're/there wrong too - somehow I think of my sentences as to how they sound rather than otherwise. I don't usually get these things wrong, but sometimes.
The problem is that a lot of people who post regularly, so maybe 80% of the comments, regurgitate the dominant narrative about Trump in an antagonistic way, and in doing so are basically repeating propaganda, making the whole discussion pointless.
Which is why any option from a narrow Trump win to a Harris landslide is still possible.
Sounds a bit ghoulish, but do we know how the hurricane will affect Florida from that point of view? How many ballots will have been issued? How many returned? How many kept safely and how many destroyed?
Florida was looking mighty close. It's hard to believe this won't have some impact, especially if it disrupts voting on the day.
This will of course lead The Orange Haired One and Elon PG Musk to claim the Dems arranged the hurricane...
Your later paragraphs - about the seeming economic death spiral we’ve entered, essentially ever since the 2008 financial crisis - are more on point.
It is needed, it is also inevitable. This shit is happening across Europe. Europeans can look at Dubai and Singapore and they can see that a no-fucking-nonsense government which strangles muggers and has a "tough" attitude to all crime especially imported migrant crime looks evermore appealing, and evermore prosperous
It will happen when white women, belatedly, swing Right. When they realise that this no-borders happy clappy multikulti bollocks means cities where they cannot safely walk the streets by day, let alone by night
There's no easy answer, but it would definitely be better if we actually discussed the issue.
Has any hard right government ever been a success?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D._Ben_Rees
PA, WI etc is a different matter.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/8/2275616/-Millions-of-Christians-not-planning-to-vote-this-November-could-shape-election-Study
So when I was woken up and went downstairs and found someone in my house whom I came face-to-face with before he ran out the back door (which had the key in it on the inside, he'd crowbarred open the kitchen window making a clattering noise which is what had woken me up) - what crime is that classed as?
But - that's a big 'if.' I distrust all US polling on principle.
Finger in the air says everything is blowing due Harris, but that could change.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/main-spending-cuts-tax-increases-frances-2025-budget-2024-10-10/
SPENDING CUTS
The French government will cut 2,200 jobs. The headcount for teachers, in particular, will drop, along with the expected drop in the number of pupils, government officials said.
France will cut its foreign aid budget by 1.3 billion euros.
Subsidies for apprentices and other jobs will be cut by 2.1 billion euros.
Green subsidies, in particular those for insulation and the purchase of electric cars, will be cut by 1.9 billion euros.
The planned increase of pensions due to inflation on Jan. 1 will be postponed by six months, saving 3.6 billion euros.
TAX HIKES
Big companies
France's largest companies with revenue exceeding 1 billion euros will pay an additional tax on their profits. The tax is expected to raise 8 billion euros and, if approved, would affect 440 companies.
Wealthy individuals
Individuals earning more than 250,000 euros a year will see a temporary increase in income tax, and a minimum tax of 20% will be introduced for those households only, to prevent the use of tax loopholes, raising 2 billion euros per year.
Air transport
France will raise a tax on airplane tickets and private jets.
The amount, currently being discussed with the industry, will be added in an amendment to the budget bill during parliamentary debates.
France currently has a tax of 2.6 euros per flight, lower than in Britain or Germany, government officials said.
It's a strong law-and-order Government - now, that can work in places like Dubai and Singapore but how would that operate in Britain or even London?
How many Police Officers would you need to enforce the kind of strict law and order policies those advocating "hard right" solutions would want - how many judges, how much extra prison capacity, how many extra Police stations? Who pays for all this and from where?
Are we looking at armed Police on every street corner? IF you are stupid or desperate enough to nick a sandwich from Wenzel's (or Popham's in your part of the world presumably), would the staff be able to detain you until the Police arrive? What about fare evasion or mobile phone theft?
Rather like simply wanting more houses built, it's a multi-faceted problem whose solutions would need detailed planning and the electorate would want to know the costs and the limitations on new Police powers - would people be allowed to protest against the new law and order legislation or would they be beaten up or worse if they tried (or dared)?
If I were being more cynical, I'd wonder if ten years of what you might describe as a socialist Government would crash the economy so much as to make the prospect of coming to Britain so utterly unappealing to even the most desperate migrant.
Many many times
But for today: look at the UAE and Singapore. Arguably the most successful nations on the planet, esp given where they came from
Every police officer is also a Judge...
*The football team that plays at the appropriately named Wankdorf Stadium springs to mind.
OK El Salvador
Brutally rightwing government
Now has possibly the lowest murder rate in the Western Hemisphere
https://efe.com/en/other-news/2024-02-03/fear-of-police-replaces-gang-violence-in-el-salvador/
Er, yeah, in a place as fucked as El Salvador (as was) it is GOOD if people are "scared" of the police