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Fifty years ago today – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,158
edited November 7 in General
Fifty years ago today – politicalbetting.com

Had Rishi Sunak waited for a November election then PB and the media would have been focussing on the fact that it would have been fifty years since a Labour leader other than Tony Blair won an election.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    First?
  • algarkirk said:

    First?

    second
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651

    algarkirk said:

    First?

    second
    third
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,049

    algarkirk said:

    First?

    second
    third
    fourth
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362
    Fourth (see the Tories in the next election)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,049

    algarkirk said:

    First?

    second
    third
    ...and my axe.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    My first week at Durham University.

    Harold Wilson's last hurrah.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,803
    edited October 10

    I was 14 and certainly followed both 1974 elections.

    My detailed memories of the events have unfortunately though been overwritten by recent important information such as which parking app I need to use for which carpark. 100 billion neurons only goes so far.

    I was much the same age. I only remember a school colleague commenting to me quite unprompted on the shock and horror felt by our more Tory masters.

    Which was quite remarkable for him. And in turn emphasised the nature of the event.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,803

    algarkirk said:

    First?

    second
    third
    On that point, like the Tories at Holyrood it seems.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/24644065.uk-tory-contest-will-condemn-scottish-party-third-place-holyrood/
  • In 1974 I was 2 years into a new business, was immediate past captain of the golf club, was very involved with the PTA and other charities, and we were expecting our 3rd child - so not a lot of time for politics but I did help in the election campaign to see the late Wyn Roberts retain Conwy for the conservatives
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,681
    I was very young but do remember going with my mother to the local Liberal committee rooms in the middle of one of the 1974 elections. She was helping out. Piles of leaflets everywhere.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    The 1974 elections are the first ones that I remember.

    My memories are mostly of the first one, and the speculation that the Liberals under Thorpe would support Heath continuing.

    Of the second one, I remember the SNP doing well, and in conjunction with the boom in North Sea Oil demands for independence. I think this was the beginning of it becoming a serious proposition.

    Then I moved to America so can remember the 1976 US election.

  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,076
    I was 25 and have no memory of the GE at all. Otherwise occupied. I would certainly have cast a vote, but no idea which way.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,573
    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,681
    Ex-Darktrace head Poppy Gustafsson named UK investment minister

    FT breaking news
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,681

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    This another GOP operations poll like the Austin University one I posted about earlier?

    Austin Uni has 23 staff.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,176

    Ex-Darktrace head Poppy Gustafsson named UK investment minister

    FT breaking news

    Heavily connected to Autonomy…. Interesting. But I have some doubts.


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,681
    Republican Voters Against Trump
    @AccountableGOP

    “My father-in-law lives just outside of Asheville, NC…And he has refused all FEMA help because he's a hardcore Trumper. He literally believes that if he accepts anything from FEMA they're going to take his house.”

    Trump's lies about hurricane relief have real consequences.

    https://x.com/AccountableGOP/status/1844417616116318420
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited October 10

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,864
    edited October 10

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    John McLaughlin is a pro-Trump pollster and he is a frequent guest on Newsmax which as we know is strongly pro-Trump.

    I would recommend a large bucket of salt when considering the above polling....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,651

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    The spurious apostrophe mark's it as a dud.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    stodge said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    John McLaughlin is a pro-Trump pollster and he is a frequent guest on Newsmax which as we know is strongly pro-Trump.

    I would recommend a large bucket of salt when considering the above polling....
    Once Billy starts posting all polls rather than just Trumpy ones I’ll pay them some attention.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,806
    1974 one year too early for me! Earliest election campaign I can definitely remember taking an interest in was 1987.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    stodge said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    John McLaughlin is a pro-Trump pollster and he is a frequent guest on Newsmax which as we know is strongly pro-Trump.

    I would recommend a large bucket of salt when considering the above polling....
    I don't understand why William would choose to post clearly biased polling on a political betting site that relies on accurate data. Is he trolling? Is he wishcasting?
  • Is it really only 3 weeks next Tuesday to the US election?

    The way time flies we will soon know just what the US has voted for [ and the members of the conservative party]
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    William was funny once. These days he is just a garden variety Trumpian shill.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,274
    edited October 10

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    That pollster has a rating of 0.5 out of 3 . These polls are designed to help the “ stop the steal “ narrative that Trump will get his moronic supporters to swallow.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    I was 7 in 1974.

    I got the impression that general elections must be held every few months as that's what I had witnessed.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,242
    I was living on a farm in claret country, scraping a living picking grapes. Heard the results on long wave, interspersed with martial music from Radio Tirana. The weather was dreadful: nostalgie de la boue. If anyone offers you a bottle of St Emilion '74 don't touch it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    edited October 10

    Is it really only 3 weeks next Tuesday to the US election?

    The way time flies we will soon know just what the US has voted for [ and the members of the conservative party]

    *Pedant hat ON*

    No, because voting has already started in a large number of states.

    In fact, I think only Alabama doesn't have some form of early voting (and if that goes blue then it really will be a shellacking that Landon would blink at for Trump).

    *Pedant hat OFF*
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    William was funny once. These days he is just a garden variety Trumpian shill.
    He always has been, see 2016.

    It's his about turn over the EU that has changed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    edited October 10

    stodge said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    John McLaughlin is a pro-Trump pollster and he is a frequent guest on Newsmax which as we know is strongly pro-Trump.

    I would recommend a large bucket of salt when considering the above polling....
    I don't understand why William would choose to post clearly biased polling on a political betting site that relies on accurate data. Is he trolling? Is he wishcasting?
    I think @williamglenn is trying to balance the general posting of pro-Harris polls. That said, the fact that he appears to never publish ones that are favourable to her does make him look rather partisan.

    FWIW, McClaughlin published one of the worst polls of 2022, forecasting an incredibly tight Senate race is Connecticut, with the Republican just 3 points behind.

    In the end, the Dems won by... 15 points.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    My memories of 74 (I was 13) were power cuts for the first election, followed by some discussions between Heath and Thorpe. I remember being off school on the results day for October, watching the results come through.

    It was during then when I realised how unfair the voting system was. Perhaps it was my naievity of age. It was after then that my affinity to the liberals started.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,049
    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,242
    AnneJGP said:

    I was 25 and have no memory of the GE at all. Otherwise occupied. I would certainly have cast a vote, but no idea which way.

    It was a good decade. I progressed from undergraduate to managing director. Later on friends would sometimes accuse me of being a Thatcherite to which I'd reply "No I'm not, I'm a Callaghanite".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    John McLaughlin is a pro-Trump pollster and he is a frequent guest on Newsmax which as we know is strongly pro-Trump.

    I would recommend a large bucket of salt when considering the above polling....
    I don't understand why William would choose to post clearly biased polling on a political betting site that relies on accurate data. Is he trolling? Is he wishcasting?
    I think @williamglenn is trying to balance the general posting of pro-Harris polls. That said, the fact that he appears to never publish ones that are favourable to her does make him look rather partisan.

    FWIW, McClaughlin published one of the worst polls of 2022, forecasting an incredibly tight Senate race is Connecticut, with the Republican just 3 points behind.

    In the end, the Dems won by... 15 points.
    So if it's showing these races as very tight indeed, Trump is stuffed?
  • My memories of 74 (I was 13) were power cuts for the first election, followed by some discussions between Heath and Thorpe. I remember being off school on the results day for October, watching the results come through.

    It was during then when I realised how unfair the voting system was. Perhaps it was my naievity of age. It was after then that my affinity to the liberals started.

    An unstable and unreliable electricity/energy grid is a real possibility by the time of the next election.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,274
    538 ranks McLaughlin at 282 out of 282 ! I expect we’ll see a flood of these Trump arse licking polls over the next few weeks .
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    John McLaughlin is a pro-Trump pollster and he is a frequent guest on Newsmax which as we know is strongly pro-Trump.

    I would recommend a large bucket of salt when considering the above polling....
    I don't understand why William would choose to post clearly biased polling on a political betting site that relies on accurate data. Is he trolling? Is he wishcasting?
    I think @williamglenn is trying to balance the general posting of pro-Harris polls. That said, the fact that he appears to never publish ones that are favourable to her does make him look rather partisan.

    FWIW, McClaughlin published one of the worst polls of 2022, forecasting an incredibly tight Senate race is Connecticut, with the Republican just 3 points behind.

    In the end, the Dems won by... 15 points.
    Posting clearly dodgy polling doesn't seem to be in the spirit of the site.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350

    I was 7 in 1974.

    I got the impression that general elections must be held every few months as that's what I had witnessed.

    The confusion was off the Chartists.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,093
    I just remember my dad being very pissed off. He liked Heath and had no time for Wilson.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,221

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Hahaha some sad fuck flagged you
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Foxy said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    William was funny once. These days he is just a garden variety Trumpian shill.
    He always has been, see 2016.

    It's his about turn over the EU that has changed.
    Oh indeed, but an amusing Trumpian. Now it’s just cherry-picked dubious polling. Not great on a betting site.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,221
    Ah, @williamglenn it was that tragic non-player character, @Mexicanpete, as you were
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,207
    ydoethur said:

    Is it really only 3 weeks next Tuesday to the US election?

    The way time flies we will soon know just what the US has voted for [ and the members of the conservative party]

    *Pedant hat ON*

    No, because voting has already started in a large number of states.

    In fact, I think only Alabama doesn't have some form of early voting (and if that goes blue then it really will be a shellacking that Landon would blink at for Trump).

    *Pedant hat OFF*
    That'll be those ultra-hurricanes the BBC app has been forecasting.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,035
    nico679 said:

    538 ranks McLaughlin at 282 out of 282 ! I expect we’ll see a flood of these Trump arse licking polls over the next few weeks .

    I don’t understand why a company would publish such trash. Don’t they make their cash from non-political clients based on the reputation from being right about politics? That being the case, surely doing this is bad for business?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,207
    Meanwhile, relevant to the daytime thread:

    The Tories are going to change their party rules to make it harder for MPs to trigger a no confidence vote in the leader.

    Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick are the only two candidates left in the current leadership contest and the winner should benefit from the change, which will affect the number of MPs needed to demand a vote of confidence in the leader.

    Under the current system, a vote takes place if 15% of Tory MPs submit a letter to the chair of the 1922 Committee demanding one. MPs are allowed to do this anonymously.

    When the Tories were in government, that meant around 50 MPs or more had to want a vote for one to happen. But now there are only 121 Conservative MPs meaning that, without a rule change, just 19 MPs would be enough to trigger a contest.

    In an interview with GB News, Bob Blackman, the chair of the 1922 Committee said the threshold for a no confidence vote would be lifted, probably to 30% or more. He said:

    "Now we will amend those rules to increase the threshold. I am not going to say what it is going to be but I suspect it will be at least to 30%, to enable a position where there will have to be a very strong opinion of the parliamentary party."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/oct/10/labour-workers-bill-jobs-keir-starmer-tory-party-leadership-jenrick-badenoch-uk-politics-live
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    nico679 said:

    538 ranks McLaughlin at 282 out of 282 ! I expect we’ll see a flood of these Trump arse licking polls over the next few weeks .

    Even worse than Bowtie Bob’s crowd?*

    (Yes, I know Trafalgar is guesswork rather than polling, before @rcs1000 picks me up on it)
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,931

    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
    If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -

    https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#&place=country/GBR&statsVar=Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita

    Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.

    Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.

    There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.

    Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,221

    Foxy said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    William was funny once. These days he is just a garden variety Trumpian shill.
    He always has been, see 2016.

    It's his about turn over the EU that has changed.
    Oh indeed, but an amusing Trumpian. Now it’s just cherry-picked dubious polling. Not great on a betting site.
    1. He's smarter than you, and occasionally rather amusing

    2. This site has a RIDICULOUS anti-Trump bias. I don't just mean most here want Trump to lose, I mean people consistently and only post polls, news, insights, opinions - that favour Harris and the Dems and, even more, show what an abject eejit Trump is and how he is BOUND to lose, because of this that and the other and blah blah bleurgh

    PB is ideally neutral, in toto, so people can draw conclusions and make bets. If @williamglenn is boosting Trump then he is providing a salutary counter-service to us all
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    Leon said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Hahaha some sad fuck flagged you
    I just never could abide the misuse of apostrophes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,221
    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
    If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -

    https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#&place=country/GBR&statsVar=Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita

    Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.

    Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.

    There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.

    Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
    We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited October 10
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    William was funny once. These days he is just a garden variety Trumpian shill.
    He always has been, see 2016.

    It's his about turn over the EU that has changed.
    Oh indeed, but an amusing Trumpian. Now it’s just cherry-picked dubious polling. Not great on a betting site.
    1. He's smarter than you, and occasionally rather amusing

    2. This site has a RIDICULOUS anti-Trump bias. I don't just mean most here want Trump to lose, I mean people consistently and only post polls, news, insights, opinions - that favour Harris and the Dems and, even more, show what an abject eejit Trump is and how he is BOUND to lose, because of this that and the other and blah blah bleurgh

    PB is ideally neutral, in toto, so people can draw conclusions and make bets. If @williamglenn is boosting Trump then he is providing a salutary counter-service to us all
    LOL. I’m surprised you can afford all those martinis on your budget,
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,745

    My memories of 74 (I was 13) were power cuts for the first election, followed by some discussions between Heath and Thorpe. I remember being off school on the results day for October, watching the results come through.

    It was during then when I realised how unfair the voting system was. Perhaps it was my naievity of age. It was after then that my affinity to the liberals started.

    My recollection of those days was settling down to watch Thunderbirds, looked forward to all week, and shortly after it started there being a power-cut and a blank screen. Trauma off the scale.

    Must have been enough to turn a whole cohort of 9 year olds into life-long Tories.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Leon said:

    Ah, @williamglenn it was that tragic non-player character, @Mexicanpete, as you were

    So notes the man who went the full Dickson and presented a Welsh subsample as a real poll.

    LOL.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,747
    Glenmorangie is not what it once was, but I just bought a bottle of their 10yo for £17.50 in Tesco. Wild!

    (They were something a bit good back in the day)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,747
    Anyway, evening PB.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874
    The 1974 general elections also saw a 1 term Heath government lose to Labour with Heath unable to control the unions and inflation.

    Starmer personality wise is similar to Heath
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...
    Leon said:

    Ah, @williamglenn it was that tragic non-player character, @Mexicanpete, as you were

    To be fair to William at least he remains on topic and doesn't just post photos of his latest breakfast cocktail.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,874

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    General election poll - Pennsylvania

    🔵 Harris 51% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 49%

    YouGov #B - 1000 RV - 10/2
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1844223199690801448
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,035
    HYUFD said:

    The 1974 general elections also saw a 1 term Heath government lose to Labour with Heath unable to control the unions and inflation.

    Starmer personality wise is similar to Heath

    So who is the best Wilson analogy? If only the Tories had a well liked, recently ex-PM, with real charisma but a weakness for scandal.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,931
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
    If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -

    https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#&place=country/GBR&statsVar=Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita

    Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.

    Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.

    There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.

    Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
    We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
    I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.

    This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.

    And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.

    And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?

    As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.

    It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    The 1974 general elections also saw a 1 term Heath government lose to Labour with Heath unable to control the unions and inflation.

    Starmer personality wise is similar to Heath

    So who is the best Wilson analogy? If only the Tories had a well liked, recently ex-PM, with real charisma but a weakness for scandal.
    And a functioning brain.

    Sadly, there it falls down.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,093
    edited October 10
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    William was funny once. These days he is just a garden variety Trumpian shill.
    He always has been, see 2016.

    It's his about turn over the EU that has changed.
    Oh indeed, but an amusing Trumpian. Now it’s just cherry-picked dubious polling. Not great on a betting site.
    1. He's smarter than you, and occasionally rather amusing

    2. This site has a RIDICULOUS anti-Trump bias. I don't just mean most here want Trump to lose, I mean people consistently and only post polls, news, insights, opinions - that favour Harris and the Dems and, even more, show what an abject eejit Trump is and how he is BOUND to lose, because of this that and the other and blah blah bleurgh

    PB is ideally neutral, in toto, so people can draw conclusions and make bets. If @williamglenn is boosting Trump then he is providing a salutary counter-service to us all
    The day PB doesn't have a massive net preference for the horror that is Donald Trump to come a cropper is the day it ceases to be a place where intelligent, good-hearted people who are into politics and betting meet to chew the fat.

    Long may that day be postponed.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,207
    ydoethur said:

    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    The 1974 general elections also saw a 1 term Heath government lose to Labour with Heath unable to control the unions and inflation.

    Starmer personality wise is similar to Heath

    So who is the best Wilson analogy? If only the Tories had a well liked, recently ex-PM, with real charisma but a weakness for scandal.
    And a functioning brain.

    Sadly, there it falls down.
    Nah, fell down at "well liked".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350

    ydoethur said:

    biggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    The 1974 general elections also saw a 1 term Heath government lose to Labour with Heath unable to control the unions and inflation.

    Starmer personality wise is similar to Heath

    So who is the best Wilson analogy? If only the Tories had a well liked, recently ex-PM, with real charisma but a weakness for scandal.
    And a functioning brain.

    Sadly, there it falls down.
    Nah, fell down at "well liked".
    Plenty of people still like Massive, for reasons that I personally find defy explanation.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,747
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Hahaha some sad fuck flagged you
    I just never could abide the misuse of apostrophes.
    It can be quite tricky to get it right always - I certainly don't. I have no clue about the proper use of colons, semi-colons and hyphens.

    I sometimes get the too/to/two and their/they're/there wrong too - somehow I think of my sentences as to how they sound rather than otherwise. I don't usually get these things wrong, but sometimes.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    William was funny once. These days he is just a garden variety Trumpian shill.
    He always has been, see 2016.

    It's his about turn over the EU that has changed.
    Oh indeed, but an amusing Trumpian. Now it’s just cherry-picked dubious polling. Not great on a betting site.
    1. He's smarter than you, and occasionally rather amusing

    2. This site has a RIDICULOUS anti-Trump bias. I don't just mean most here want Trump to lose, I mean people consistently and only post polls, news, insights, opinions - that favour Harris and the Dems and, even more, show what an abject eejit Trump is and how he is BOUND to lose, because of this that and the other and blah blah bleurgh

    PB is ideally neutral, in toto, so people can draw conclusions and make bets. If @williamglenn is boosting Trump then he is providing a salutary counter-service to us all
    I don't think I have ever seen williamglenn post anything to indicate some kind of personal support for Trump, but is consistently reposting other information that shows that Trump may be doing better and have a wider appeal than people assume. So actually it is contributing in a constructive way to the debate on a political betting website.

    The problem is that a lot of people who post regularly, so maybe 80% of the comments, regurgitate the dominant narrative about Trump in an antagonistic way, and in doing so are basically repeating propaganda, making the whole discussion pointless.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    General election poll - Pennsylvania

    🔵 Harris 51% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 49%

    YouGov #B - 1000 RV - 10/2
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1844223199690801448
    The truth is, all of this polling is so much BS not just because it includes random partisan hacks for both sides plucking figures out of their arses but because everything hinges on turnout.

    Which is why any option from a narrow Trump win to a Harris landslide is still possible.

    Sounds a bit ghoulish, but do we know how the hurricane will affect Florida from that point of view? How many ballots will have been issued? How many returned? How many kept safely and how many destroyed?

    Florida was looking mighty close. It's hard to believe this won't have some impact, especially if it disrupts voting on the day.

    This will of course lead The Orange Haired One and Elon PG Musk to claim the Dems arranged the hurricane...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    edited October 10
    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
    If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -

    https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#&place=country/GBR&statsVar=Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita

    Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.

    Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.

    There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.

    Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
    We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
    I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.

    This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.

    And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.

    And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?

    As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.

    It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
    I remember the 90s. People got mugged in broad daylight all the time. We look back on it as a golden age. People rioted regularly too. Your first paragraph is belied by data, including the BCS which is immune from crime recording biases.

    Your later paragraphs - about the seeming economic death spiral we’ve entered, essentially ever since the 2008 financial crisis - are more on point.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,221
    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
    If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -

    https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#&place=country/GBR&statsVar=Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita

    Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.

    Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.

    There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.

    Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
    We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
    I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.

    This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.

    And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.

    And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?

    As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.

    It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
    I now believe we need a hard right government. Whether that's the Tories under a hard right leader, or Reform, or a new party entirely, who knows

    It is needed, it is also inevitable. This shit is happening across Europe. Europeans can look at Dubai and Singapore and they can see that a no-fucking-nonsense government which strangles muggers and has a "tough" attitude to all crime especially imported migrant crime looks evermore appealing, and evermore prosperous

    It will happen when white women, belatedly, swing Right. When they realise that this no-borders happy clappy multikulti bollocks means cities where they cannot safely walk the streets by day, let alone by night
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    It’s also dodgy as hell on a political betting website.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,537
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
    If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -

    https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#&place=country/GBR&statsVar=Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita

    Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.

    Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.

    There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.

    Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
    We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
    I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.

    This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.

    And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.

    And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?

    As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.

    It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
    I now believe we need a hard right government. Whether that's the Tories under a hard right leader, or Reform, or a new party entirely, who knows

    It is needed, it is also inevitable. This shit is happening across Europe. Europeans can look at Dubai and Singapore and they can see that a no-fucking-nonsense government which strangles muggers and has a "tough" attitude to all crime especially imported migrant crime looks evermore appealing, and evermore prosperous

    It will happen when white women, belatedly, swing Right. When they realise that this no-borders happy clappy multikulti bollocks means cities where they cannot safely walk the streets by day, let alone by night
    I can understand why Italy has a hard right government after I was mugged in Rome earlier this year after getting off a night bus.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    That's the difficult issue to solve: how do you avoid a significantly worsening dependency ratio, while not overloading local services and communities?

    There's no easy answer, but it would definitely be better if we actually discussed the issue.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
    If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -

    https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#&place=country/GBR&statsVar=Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita

    Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.

    Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.

    There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.

    Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
    We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
    I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.

    This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.

    And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.

    And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?

    As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.

    It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
    London is definitely the very last place in the U.K. where you can hope to earn a decent salary. That far, I agree with you.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,747
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
    If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -

    https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#&place=country/GBR&statsVar=Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita

    Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.

    Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.

    There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.

    Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
    We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
    I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.

    This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.

    And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.

    And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?

    As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.

    It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
    I now believe we need a hard right government. Whether that's the Tories under a hard right leader, or Reform, or a new party entirely, who knows

    It is needed, it is also inevitable. This shit is happening across Europe. Europeans can look at Dubai and Singapore and they can see that a no-fucking-nonsense government which strangles muggers and has a "tough" attitude to all crime especially imported migrant crime looks evermore appealing, and evermore prosperous

    It will happen when white women, belatedly, swing Right. When they realise that this no-borders happy clappy multikulti bollocks means cities where they cannot safely walk the streets by day, let alone by night
    "I now believe we need a hard right government."

    Has any hard right government ever been a success?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110
    TimS said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
    If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -

    https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#&place=country/GBR&statsVar=Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita

    Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.

    Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.

    There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.

    Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
    We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
    I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.

    This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.

    And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.

    And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?

    As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.

    It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
    I remember the 90s. People got mugged in broad daylight all the time. We look back on it as a golden age. People rioted regularly too. Your first paragraph is belied by data, including the BCS which is immune from crime recording biases.

    Your later paragraphs - about the seeming economic death spiral we’ve entered, essentially ever since the 2008 financial crisis - are more on point.
    People also forget that certain crimes - like burglary - have almost entirely disappeared in the last forty years.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,537

    In 1974 I was 2 years into a new business, was immediate past captain of the golf club, was very involved with the PTA and other charities, and we were expecting our 3rd child - so not a lot of time for politics but I did help in the election campaign to see the late Wyn Roberts retain Conwy for the conservatives

    The Labour candidate at that election, D. Ben Rees, is still around.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D._Ben_Rees
  • ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    General election poll - Pennsylvania

    🔵 Harris 51% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 49%

    YouGov #B - 1000 RV - 10/2
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1844223199690801448
    The truth is, all of this polling is so much BS not just because it includes random partisan hacks for both sides plucking figures out of their arses but because everything hinges on turnout.

    Which is why any option from a narrow Trump win to a Harris landslide is still possible.

    Sounds a bit ghoulish, but do we know how the hurricane will affect Florida from that point of view? How many ballots will have been issued? How many returned? How many kept safely and how many destroyed?

    Florida was looking mighty close. It's hard to believe this won't have some impact, especially if it disrupts voting on the day.

    This will of course lead The Orange Haired One and Elon PG Musk to claim the Dems arranged the hurricane...
    Florida doesn't look close to me, looks pretty safe orange sadly.

    PA, WI etc is a different matter.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,615
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    General election poll - Pennsylvania

    🔵 Harris 51% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 49%

    YouGov #B - 1000 RV - 10/2
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1844223199690801448
    The truth is, all of this polling is so much BS not just because it includes random partisan hacks for both sides plucking figures out of their arses but because everything hinges on turnout.

    Which is why any option from a narrow Trump win to a Harris landslide is still possible.

    Sounds a bit ghoulish, but do we know how the hurricane will affect Florida from that point of view? How many ballots will have been issued? How many returned? How many kept safely and how many destroyed?

    Florida was looking mighty close. It's hard to believe this won't have some impact, especially if it disrupts voting on the day.

    This will of course lead The Orange Haired One and Elon PG Musk to claim the Dems arranged the hurricane...
    I saw this the other day. Looks like a low turnout in the USA, not sure though who that's good for.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/8/2275616/-Millions-of-Christians-not-planning-to-vote-this-November-could-shape-election-Study
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,274
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    General election poll - Pennsylvania

    🔵 Harris 51% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 49%

    YouGov #B - 1000 RV - 10/2
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1844223199690801448
    The truth is, all of this polling is so much BS not just because it includes random partisan hacks for both sides plucking figures out of their arses but because everything hinges on turnout.

    Which is why any option from a narrow Trump win to a Harris landslide is still possible.

    Sounds a bit ghoulish, but do we know how the hurricane will affect Florida from that point of view? How many ballots will have been issued? How many returned? How many kept safely and how many destroyed?

    Florida was looking mighty close. It's hard to believe this won't have some impact, especially if it disrupts voting on the day.

    This will of course lead The Orange Haired One and Elon PG Musk to claim the Dems arranged the hurricane...
    Thankfully the hurricane did less damage than feared and the authorities anticipate flooding and damage of election offices so normally take precautions . It’s far enough out from the election to give them time to address lost mail in ballots . Of course though for those effected voting might not be a big priority . In terms of which areas were worst effected most were GOP leaning areas , Tampa which leans Dem was spared severe flooding as the eye tracked just to the south so caused offshore winds.
  • rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
    If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -

    https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#&place=country/GBR&statsVar=Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita

    Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.

    Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.

    There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.

    Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
    We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
    I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.

    This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.

    And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.

    And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?

    As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.

    It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
    I remember the 90s. People got mugged in broad daylight all the time. We look back on it as a golden age. People rioted regularly too. Your first paragraph is belied by data, including the BCS which is immune from crime recording biases.

    Your later paragraphs - about the seeming economic death spiral we’ve entered, essentially ever since the 2008 financial crisis - are more on point.
    People also forget that certain crimes - like burglary - have almost entirely disappeared in the last forty years.
    They have?

    So when I was woken up and went downstairs and found someone in my house whom I came face-to-face with before he ran out the back door (which had the key in it on the inside, he'd crowbarred open the kitchen window making a clattering noise which is what had woken me up) - what crime is that classed as?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,537
    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    Maybe the next election will be won by a coalition of Badenoch and Farage.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    edited October 10
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    General election poll - Pennsylvania

    🔵 Harris 51% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 49%

    YouGov #B - 1000 RV - 10/2
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1844223199690801448
    The truth is, all of this polling is so much BS not just because it includes random partisan hacks for both sides plucking figures out of their arses but because everything hinges on turnout.

    Which is why any option from a narrow Trump win to a Harris landslide is still possible.

    Sounds a bit ghoulish, but do we know how the hurricane will affect Florida from that point of view? How many ballots will have been issued? How many returned? How many kept safely and how many destroyed?

    Florida was looking mighty close. It's hard to believe this won't have some impact, especially if it disrupts voting on the day.

    This will of course lead The Orange Haired One and Elon PG Musk to claim the Dems arranged the hurricane...
    I saw this the other day. Looks like a low turnout in the USA, not sure though who that's good for.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/8/2275616/-Millions-of-Christians-not-planning-to-vote-this-November-could-shape-election-Study
    If that is correct, it probably hurts Trump. Harris' base is motivated for a mixture of reasons - abortion, Trump's crimes, Republican loathsomeness and her gender/race among others (it's striking she does well when playing the identity card). The indications are that Trump needs a higher turnout in his target groups to do well as he's toxic to independents.

    But - that's a big 'if.' I distrust all US polling on principle.

    Finger in the air says everything is blowing due Harris, but that could change.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    Tightening the belt in France. Spending cuts and tax rises by the Barnier government.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/main-spending-cuts-tax-increases-frances-2025-budget-2024-10-10/

    SPENDING CUTS
    The French government will cut 2,200 jobs. The headcount for teachers, in particular, will drop, along with the expected drop in the number of pupils, government officials said.
    France will cut its foreign aid budget by 1.3 billion euros.
    Subsidies for apprentices and other jobs will be cut by 2.1 billion euros.
    Green subsidies, in particular those for insulation and the purchase of electric cars, will be cut by 1.9 billion euros.
    The planned increase of pensions due to inflation on Jan. 1 will be postponed by six months, saving 3.6 billion euros.
    TAX HIKES
    Big companies
    France's largest companies with revenue exceeding 1 billion euros will pay an additional tax on their profits. The tax is expected to raise 8 billion euros and, if approved, would affect 440 companies.
    Wealthy individuals
    Individuals earning more than 250,000 euros a year will see a temporary increase in income tax, and a minimum tax of 20% will be introduced for those households only, to prevent the use of tax loopholes, raising 2 billion euros per year.
    Air transport
    France will raise a tax on airplane tickets and private jets.
    The amount, currently being discussed with the industry, will be added in an amendment to the budget bill during parliamentary debates.
    France currently has a tax of 2.6 euros per flight, lower than in Britain or Germany, government officials said.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,309
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    William was funny once. These days he is just a garden variety Trumpian shill.
    He always has been, see 2016.

    It's his about turn over the EU that has changed.
    Oh indeed, but an amusing Trumpian. Now it’s just cherry-picked dubious polling. Not great on a betting site.
    1. He's smarter than you, and occasionally rather amusing

    2. This site has a RIDICULOUS anti-Trump bias. I don't just mean most here want Trump to lose, I mean people consistently and only post polls, news, insights, opinions - that favour Harris and the Dems and, even more, show what an abject eejit Trump is and how he is BOUND to lose, because of this that and the other and blah blah bleurgh

    PB is ideally neutral, in toto, so people can draw conclusions and make bets. If @williamglenn is boosting Trump then he is providing a salutary counter-service to us all
    Trump is a perfect arsehole, he should be in an orange suit. A real wrong un.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 929
    Remember taking a young mother and her baby to the polling station in her old area of residence. Little fellah stayed quite happily on my knee whilst she sent into vote. Other than that little else, Al;most everyone expected Labour to win but were surprised at the lower than expected vote share, resulting in a closer result than forecast. Polls got it wrong again. Something never changes.Other than that cannot really recall anything if any great significance..
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,350
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    Your posting only Trump biased polls is really pissing me off.

    Trump may well win, but based on your input it appears more of a foregone conclusion than reality.
    William was funny once. These days he is just a garden variety Trumpian shill.
    He always has been, see 2016.

    It's his about turn over the EU that has changed.
    Oh indeed, but an amusing Trumpian. Now it’s just cherry-picked dubious polling. Not great on a betting site.
    1. He's smarter than you, and occasionally rather amusing

    2. This site has a RIDICULOUS anti-Trump bias. I don't just mean most here want Trump to lose, I mean people consistently and only post polls, news, insights, opinions - that favour Harris and the Dems and, even more, show what an abject eejit Trump is and how he is BOUND to lose, because of this that and the other and blah blah bleurgh

    PB is ideally neutral, in toto, so people can draw conclusions and make bets. If @williamglenn is boosting Trump then he is providing a salutary counter-service to us all
    Trump is a perfect arsehole, he should be in an orange suit. A real wrong un.
    It would clash horribly with his hair.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,864
    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
    If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -

    https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#&place=country/GBR&statsVar=Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita

    Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.

    Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.

    There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.

    Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
    We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
    I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.

    This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.

    And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.

    And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?

    As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.

    It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
    I now believe we need a hard right government. Whether that's the Tories under a hard right leader, or Reform, or a new party entirely, who knows

    It is needed, it is also inevitable. This shit is happening across Europe. Europeans can look at Dubai and Singapore and they can see that a no-fucking-nonsense government which strangles muggers and has a "tough" attitude to all crime especially imported migrant crime looks evermore appealing, and evermore prosperous

    It will happen when white women, belatedly, swing Right. When they realise that this no-borders happy clappy multikulti bollocks means cities where they cannot safely walk the streets by day, let alone by night
    At last we're starting to get some flesh on the "hard right" Government meme.

    It's a strong law-and-order Government - now, that can work in places like Dubai and Singapore but how would that operate in Britain or even London?

    How many Police Officers would you need to enforce the kind of strict law and order policies those advocating "hard right" solutions would want - how many judges, how much extra prison capacity, how many extra Police stations? Who pays for all this and from where?

    Are we looking at armed Police on every street corner? IF you are stupid or desperate enough to nick a sandwich from Wenzel's (or Popham's in your part of the world presumably), would the staff be able to detain you until the Police arrive? What about fare evasion or mobile phone theft?

    Rather like simply wanting more houses built, it's a multi-faceted problem whose solutions would need detailed planning and the electorate would want to know the costs and the limitations on new Police powers - would people be allowed to protest against the new law and order legislation or would they be beaten up or worse if they tried (or dared)?

    If I were being more cynical, I'd wonder if ten years of what you might describe as a socialist Government would crash the economy so much as to make the prospect of coming to Britain so utterly unappealing to even the most desperate migrant.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,221
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
    If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -

    https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#&place=country/GBR&statsVar=Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita

    Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.

    Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.

    There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.

    Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
    We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
    I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.

    This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.

    And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.

    And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?

    As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.

    It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
    I now believe we need a hard right government. Whether that's the Tories under a hard right leader, or Reform, or a new party entirely, who knows

    It is needed, it is also inevitable. This shit is happening across Europe. Europeans can look at Dubai and Singapore and they can see that a no-fucking-nonsense government which strangles muggers and has a "tough" attitude to all crime especially imported migrant crime looks evermore appealing, and evermore prosperous

    It will happen when white women, belatedly, swing Right. When they realise that this no-borders happy clappy multikulti bollocks means cities where they cannot safely walk the streets by day, let alone by night
    "I now believe we need a hard right government."

    Has any hard right government ever been a success?
    Er, yeah

    Many many times

    But for today: look at the UAE and Singapore. Arguably the most successful nations on the planet, esp given where they came from
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,076
    HYUFD said:

    The 1974 general elections also saw a 1 term Heath government lose to Labour with Heath unable to control the unions and inflation.

    Starmer personality wise is similar to Heath

    I don't recall much about Heath but memory does suggest a breadth of interest - yachting, conducting music - that leaves SKS appearing somewhat, um, ordinary.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,537
    No-one expected the Netherlands to elect a hard-right government. So it could happen anywhere.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,747
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
    If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -

    https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#&place=country/GBR&statsVar=Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita

    Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.

    Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.

    There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.

    Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
    We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
    I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.

    This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.

    And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.

    And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?

    As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.

    It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
    I now believe we need a hard right government. Whether that's the Tories under a hard right leader, or Reform, or a new party entirely, who knows

    It is needed, it is also inevitable. This shit is happening across Europe. Europeans can look at Dubai and Singapore and they can see that a no-fucking-nonsense government which strangles muggers and has a "tough" attitude to all crime especially imported migrant crime looks evermore appealing, and evermore prosperous

    It will happen when white women, belatedly, swing Right. When they realise that this no-borders happy clappy multikulti bollocks means cities where they cannot safely walk the streets by day, let alone by night
    "I now believe we need a hard right government."

    Has any hard right government ever been a success?
    Er, yeah

    Many many times

    But for today: look at the UAE and Singapore. Arguably the most successful nations on the planet, esp given where they came from
    These are good examples, but they're small and very money rich states. I'm moving the goalposts, but the questions still stands.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,076
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1844419029534114026

    #New General Election poll - Swing State's

    Arizona - 🔴 Trump +3
    Georgia - 🔴 Trump +5
    Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1
    Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
    N. Carolina - 🔴 Trump +1
    Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1
    Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1

    McLaughlin (🔴) #F - LV - 10/9

    General election poll - Pennsylvania

    🔵 Harris 51% (+2)
    🔴 Trump 49%

    YouGov #B - 1000 RV - 10/2
    https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1844223199690801448
    The truth is, all of this polling is so much BS not just because it includes random partisan hacks for both sides plucking figures out of their arses but because everything hinges on turnout.

    Which is why any option from a narrow Trump win to a Harris landslide is still possible.

    Sounds a bit ghoulish, but do we know how the hurricane will affect Florida from that point of view? How many ballots will have been issued? How many returned? How many kept safely and how many destroyed?

    Florida was looking mighty close. It's hard to believe this won't have some impact, especially if it disrupts voting on the day.

    This will of course lead The Orange Haired One and Elon PG Musk to claim the Dems arranged the hurricane...
    If there really is a weather army, their suspicion might be credible
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,110

    rcs1000 said:

    TimS said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
    If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -

    https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#&place=country/GBR&statsVar=Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita

    Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.

    Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.

    There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.

    Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
    We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
    I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.

    This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.

    And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.

    And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?

    As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.

    It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
    I remember the 90s. People got mugged in broad daylight all the time. We look back on it as a golden age. People rioted regularly too. Your first paragraph is belied by data, including the BCS which is immune from crime recording biases.

    Your later paragraphs - about the seeming economic death spiral we’ve entered, essentially ever since the 2008 financial crisis - are more on point.
    People also forget that certain crimes - like burglary - have almost entirely disappeared in the last forty years.
    They have?

    So when I was woken up and went downstairs and found someone in my house whom I came face-to-face with before he ran out the back door (which had the key in it on the inside, he'd crowbarred open the kitchen window making a clattering noise which is what had woken me up) - what crime is that classed as?
    I was guilty of exaggeration, for sure, but the stats from the BCS show a really dramatic decline in burglary levels - from 1.7 million in 1993 to 196,000 in the year ending in March 2023.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,973
    stodge said:

    At last we're starting to get some flesh on the "hard right" Government meme.

    It's a strong law-and-order Government - now, that can work in places like Dubai and Singapore but how would that operate in Britain or even London?

    How many Police Officers would you need to enforce the kind of strict law and order policies those advocating "hard right" solutions would want - how many judges, how much extra prison capacity, how many extra Police stations? Who pays for all this and from where?

    So, I have this idea.

    Every police officer is also a Judge...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...
    AnneJGP said:

    HYUFD said:

    The 1974 general elections also saw a 1 term Heath government lose to Labour with Heath unable to control the unions and inflation.

    Starmer personality wise is similar to Heath

    I don't recall much about Heath but memory does suggest a breadth of interest - yachting, conducting music - that leaves SKS appearing somewhat, um, ordinary.
    Ted had some very odd peccadilloes and epicurean tastes in all manner of interests*. Let's hope Starmer is less "interesting" under the circumstances.

    *The football team that plays at the appropriately named Wankdorf Stadium springs to mind.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,221
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Leon said:

    kyf_100 said:

    viewcode said:

    UK pop rose last year by about 650k. All of which was inward migration. This underpins growth and goes a long way to cure UK demographic problems but this large migration number is the driver of Reform. If LOTO Badenoch finds a way to peel off those votes she has a chance. If she doesn't, she doesn't.

    https://news.sky.com/story/britains-demography-is-in-the-process-of-dramatic-change-and-whats-causing-it-is-intriguing-13230442

    It is ridiculous that we are relying on migration to cure our demographic problems. If it wasn't for immigration the country would be in an even greater mess.
    If you look at GDP per capita, something has gone rather wrong since 2008 -

    https://datacommons.org/tools/timeline#&place=country/GBR&statsVar=Amount_EconomicActivity_GrossDomesticProduction_Nominal_PerCapita

    Population has grown from about 62.5m to 69.25m since 2008, and yet GDP per capita has remained stubbornly the same.

    Which means we need to find extra housing, school places, doctors, dentists, roads, railways, prisons and all the rest for the extra 7m people (largely driven by immigration since 2008), which, given nobody these days can rent a house, get a GP's appointment, or buy a standard class ticket from London to Manchester at peak times without taking out a second mortgage, we have patently failed to do.

    There is potentially a case to be made that we would be even worse off, demographically, without inward immigration. But the opposite is also true: young couples might have more children if they could afford to move out of their tiny (often rented) flats and into family homes.

    Ultimately, as the population grows, our flatlining GDP per capita suggests that more and more people are competing for increasingly scarce resources, and importantly, do not feel any better off than they were 16 years ago.
    We are gathering the ingredients for the perfect brew for a hard/far right government in about 2028/9
    I'm increasingly of the opinion that the UK's goose is cooked.

    This year I've had friends get mugged in broad daylight, seen spice addicts passed out in the street, seen people literally shitting in doorways. Graffiti and smashed windows suddenly everywhere. Shoplifters just walking in, taking what they like and walking out with impunity.

    And that's London. The last place in the UK where it seems possible to have a career and earn a decent salary. That's to say nothing of the left behind places like Hartelpool that rioted over Summer. Places where you're born and die on the same sinkhole estate, while new arrivals on dinghies get put up in the Holiday Inn.

    And Reeves wants to charge me 39% on my investments to live in this blissful utopia?

    As you said earlier it feels like the country is in a bit of a death spiral at the moment, higher tax, more people leave, lower growth, even more people leave, etc.

    It's worth remembering that even though Labour are awful a lot of this decline happened on the Tories watch. So as you say, when Labour make the spiral even worse, easy to see people turning to the hard right.
    I now believe we need a hard right government. Whether that's the Tories under a hard right leader, or Reform, or a new party entirely, who knows

    It is needed, it is also inevitable. This shit is happening across Europe. Europeans can look at Dubai and Singapore and they can see that a no-fucking-nonsense government which strangles muggers and has a "tough" attitude to all crime especially imported migrant crime looks evermore appealing, and evermore prosperous

    It will happen when white women, belatedly, swing Right. When they realise that this no-borders happy clappy multikulti bollocks means cities where they cannot safely walk the streets by day, let alone by night
    "I now believe we need a hard right government."

    Has any hard right government ever been a success?
    Er, yeah

    Many many times

    But for today: look at the UAE and Singapore. Arguably the most successful nations on the planet, esp given where they came from
    These are good examples, but they're small and very money rich states. I'm moving the goalposts, but the questions still stands.
    Oh do fuck off. "Yes you're right but I still think you're wrong"

    OK El Salvador

    Brutally rightwing government

    Now has possibly the lowest murder rate in the Western Hemisphere

    https://efe.com/en/other-news/2024-02-03/fear-of-police-replaces-gang-violence-in-el-salvador/

    Er, yeah, in a place as fucked as El Salvador (as was) it is GOOD if people are "scared" of the police
This discussion has been closed.