If Farage goes for anywhere other than one of those seats already identified in Kent and Lincolnshire then he is a fool.
His first and only aim should be to win a seat. Going for anything other than one of the UKIP council strongholds is vainglorious and suicidal.
Shouldn't the "target" seats already have candidates in place and campaigning by now?
They certainly should if they know what's good for them, but perhaps UKIP are taking a bit longer to select. Mind you, if Mr. Farage wanted to stand, I am sue that they could arrange it!
...the recent descendents of Russians imported when Russia murdered en masse the indigenous population in the USSR days.
Not quite - even before the Tatars were deported in 1944, the Russians were the largest community in Crimea:
1939 Crimea census:
Russians 50% Tatars 19% Ukrainians 14%
Unfortunately the deportation of the Crimean Tartars wasn't the bit of murdering I was referring to. The bit of murdering I was referring to was this one. That bit of murdering (which was rather a lot of murdering) is the reason why there were so few ethnic Ukranians at the time of the 1939 census.
My figures above are for Crimea. Crimea was administratively separate from Ukraine until 1954.
In 1897, Ukrainians were 12% of Crimea's pop., in 1939 they were 14%.
Interesting that Farage has apparently said he will resign within 12 hours if Ed secures a parliamentary majority. The solution is in his hands!!
I watched the Neil interview today and got the impression he said he'd go if two conditions were met: Labour win the GE on a non-referendum manifesto and UKIP fail to win a seat.
Ah! Thank you Blueberry. Mind you after Douglas Alexander's "clarification" of Labour's Referendum position last week, if Labour win a majority, I am not sure poor Nigel will know whether to consume the whisky and reach for the pearl handled revolver, or not!
...the recent descendents of Russians imported when Russia murdered en masse the indigenous population in the USSR days.
Not quite - even before the Tatars were deported in 1944, the Russians were the largest community in Crimea:
1939 Crimea census:
Russians 50% Tatars 19% Ukrainians 14%
Unfortunately the deportation of the Crimean Tartars wasn't the bit of murdering I was referring to. The bit of murdering I was referring to was this one. That bit of murdering (which was rather a lot of murdering) is the reason why there were so few ethnic Ukranians at the time of the 1939 census.
My figures above are for Crimea. Crimea was administratively separate from Ukraine until 1954.
In 1897, Ukrainians were 12% of Crimea's pop., in 1939 they were 14%.
I wasn't disputing your figures.
I was pointing out that the USSR murdered millions of people in the area by starving them to death and that this affected the ethnic mix, because ethnic Russians moved in to the now-depopulated areas. That Crimea and the Ukraine were administered separately doesn't contradict this.
...the recent descendents of Russians imported when Russia murdered en masse the indigenous population in the USSR days.
Not quite - even before the Tatars were deported in 1944, the Russians were the largest community in Crimea:
1939 Crimea census:
Russians 50% Tatars 19% Ukrainians 14%
Unfortunately the deportation of the Crimean Tartars wasn't the bit of murdering I was referring to. The bit of murdering I was referring to was this one. That bit of murdering (which was rather a lot of murdering) is the reason why there were so few ethnic Ukranians at the time of the 1939 census.
My figures above are for Crimea. Crimea was administratively separate from Ukraine until 1954.
In 1897, Ukrainians were 12% of Crimea's pop., in 1939 they were 14%.
I wasn't disputing your figures.
I was pointing out that the USSR murdered millions of people in the area by starving them to death and that this affected the ethnic mix, because ethnic Russians moved in to the now-depopulated areas. That Crimea and the Ukraine were administered separately doesn't contradict this.
And 3 million died in the Bengal Famine of 1943, something you're probably not too aware of?
If that 93% Crimea vote is genuine and also that kind of percentage will gradually taper off as you go further from the south and east then it looks likely there'll be a stage 2.
It's not, anti-Russian groups said a week or so ago they would boycott the vote. It's probably a safe majority for rejoining Russia, but not 93%.
Polling a few years ago showed a safe majority in favour of the current settlement.
If that 93% Crimea vote is genuine and also that kind of percentage will gradually taper off as you go further from the south and east then it looks likely there'll be a stage 2.
It's not, anti-Russian groups said a week or so ago they would boycott the vote. It's probably a safe majority for rejoining Russia, but not 93%.
Polling a few years ago showed a safe majority in favour of the current settlement.
Sunil, it was before many things. The question has to be whether that is a genuine shift in the views of the demos or whether they have in fact been frustrated by current events.
The shift represents a polarisation of the Crimean vote, principally a negative vote against being ruled by an Ukrainian nationalist government in Kiev rather than a strong bonding with Moscow. There will be a strong element of who has more money to give us in the voting decision.
The 93% exit poll estimate of the reunification vote has been widely published.
Here is some additional, mainly turnout, information released by ITAR-TASS
Preliminary data says that the voters turnout across the region was 73.4% on the average. In the main naval port city of Sevastopol where the main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is located, 85% registered voters came to the polls.
Particularly noticeable was the participation of 40% Crimean Tatars in the referendum.
The voting procedures were monitored by about 70 international observers from 23 countries. Their scope included members of European parliament, leading experts in international law, and human rights activists.
All the above statistics are in line with expectations.
The 93% exit poll estimate of the reunification vote has been widely published.
Here is some additional, mainly turnout, information released by ITAR-TASS
Preliminary data says that the voters turnout across the region was 73.4% on the average. In the main naval port city of Sevastopol where the main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is located, 85% registered voters came to the polls.
Particularly noticeable was the participation of 40% Crimean Tatars in the referendum.
The voting procedures were monitored by about 70 international observers from 23 countries. Their scope included members of European parliament, leading experts in international law, and human rights activists.
All the above statistics are in line with expectations.
Comrade Chancellor!
Would you agree with me that the turnout is at least better then the 1973 Ulster poll in which only 59% of the Northern Irish turned out to vote, due to a Catholic/Nationlist boycott? Reportedly only 1% of Nationalists voted.
A majority for the Union of 99% was therefore achieved, even more splendidly impressive than today's Crimean 93%!
Comrade Chancellor! As you noticed at the time, I did experiment with a Tricolour the other week, but felt it would offend people like Socrates and viewcode!
If that 93% Crimea vote is genuine and also that kind of percentage will gradually taper off as you go further from the south and east then it looks likely there'll be a stage 2.
It's not, anti-Russian groups said a week or so ago they would boycott the vote. It's probably a safe majority for rejoining Russia, but not 93%.
Yeah, taking that into account, if it's 93% to join Russia vs autonomy within Ukraine then that's probably enough for a stage 2.
If that 93% Crimea vote is genuine and also that kind of percentage will gradually taper off as you go further from the south and east then it looks likely there'll be a stage 2.
It's not, anti-Russian groups said a week or so ago they would boycott the vote. It's probably a safe majority for rejoining Russia, but not 93%.
Yeah, taking that into account, if it's 93% to join Russia vs autonomy within Ukraine then that's probably enough for a stage 2.
Comrade Chancellor! As you noticed at the time, I did experiment with a Tricolour the other week, but felt it would offend people like Socrates and viewcode!
He is a good fellow is old Grigory Aleksandrovich and the subject of a fine biography by Simon Sebag Montefiore.
Russian to his core
Potemkin "exuded both menace and welcome"; he was arrogant, demanding of his courtiers and very changeable in his moods but also fascinating, warm and kind. It was generally agreed among his female companions that he was "amply endowed with 'sex appeal'".[Montefiore]
Louis Philippe, comte de Ségur described him as "colossal like Russia", "an inconceivable mixture of grandeur and pettiness, laziness and activity, bravery and timidity, ambition and insouciance".
Catherine the Great's lifelong love. There is strong evidence the two married in secret.
If that 93% Crimea vote is genuine and also that kind of percentage will gradually taper off as you go further from the south and east then it looks likely there'll be a stage 2.
It's not, anti-Russian groups said a week or so ago they would boycott the vote. It's probably a safe majority for rejoining Russia, but not 93%.
Yeah, taking that into account, if it's 93% to join Russia vs autonomy within Ukraine then that's probably enough for a stage 2.
Comrade Chancellor! As you noticed at the time, I did experiment with a Tricolour the other week, but felt it would offend people like Socrates and viewcode!
He is a good fellow is old Grigory Aleksandrovich and the subject of a fine biography by Simon Sebag Montefiore.
Russian to his core
Potemkin "exuded both menace and welcome"; he was arrogant, demanding of his courtiers and very changeable in his moods but also fascinating, warm and kind. It was generally agreed among his female companions that he was "amply endowed with 'sex appeal'".[Montefiore]
Louis Philippe, comte de Ségur described him as "colossal like Russia", "an inconceivable mixture of grandeur and pettiness, laziness and activity, bravery and timidity, ambition and insouciance".
Catherine the Great's lifelong love. There is strong evidence the two married in secret.
Surely any "marginal" that Farage fights will be within easy reach of London!
The obvious constituency remains Thanet South.
With UKIP's recent council election successes, it is arguably a three way marginal already having been Labour between 1997-2010.
Farage has also stood in the constituency before (2005) and it is the home of Alan Bown, the UKIP donor who sponsored, inter alia, the recent Survation polls of marginals. Farage's prospects are further enhanced by Laura Sandys, the Tory incumbent, stepping down in 2015.
What would however make this contest electric would be for Farage to announce his candidacy in Thanet South and then for Boris Johnson to be selected as his Tory opponent.
Neither Nige nor BoJo need to win a constituency in 2015 - they both have existing better paid jobs - but there could be no greater personal political triumph than BoJo putting UKIP to the sword or vice versa.
This contest would be 24 hour box office. Stroke and heart attack incidence among the angry retired who populate the constituency would shatter all known records.
Surely any "marginal" that Farage fights will be within easy reach of London!
The obvious constituency remains Thanet South.
With UKIP's recent council election successes, it is arguably a three way marginal already having been Labour between 1997-2010.
Farage has also stood in the constituency before (2005) and it is the home of Alan Bown, the UKIP donor who sponsored, inter alia, the recent Survation polls of marginals. Farage's prospects are further enhanced by Laura Sandys, the Tory incumbent, stepping down in 2015.
What would however make this contest electric would be for Farage to announce his candidacy in Thanet South and then for Boris Johnson to be selected as his Tory opponent.
Neither Nige nor BoJo need to win a constituency in 2015 - they both have existing better paid jobs - but there could be no greater personal political triumph than BoJo putting UKIP to the sword or vice versa.
This contest would be 24 hour box office. Stroke and heart attack incidence among the angry retired who populate the constituency would shatter all known records.
Boris vs Nigel would be truly awesome.
Absolutely. Sadly Boris would be totally insane to risk losing to Farage and the set-back to his career that would entail, so we don't stand a chance of seeing it happen.
Surely any "marginal" that Farage fights will be within easy reach of London!
The obvious constituency remains Thanet South.
With UKIP's recent council election successes, it is arguably a three way marginal already having been Labour between 1997-2010.
Farage has also stood in the constituency before (2005) and it is the home of Alan Bown, the UKIP donor who sponsored, inter alia, the recent Survation polls of marginals. Farage's prospects are further enhanced by Laura Sandys, the Tory incumbent, stepping down in 2015.
What would however make this contest electric would be for Farage to announce his candidacy in Thanet South and then for Boris Johnson to be selected as his Tory opponent.
Neither Nige nor BoJo need to win a constituency in 2015 - they both have existing better paid jobs - but there could be no greater personal political triumph than BoJo putting UKIP to the sword or vice versa.
This contest would be 24 hour box office. Stroke and heart attack incidence among the angry retired who populate the constituency would shatter all known records.
Boris vs Nigel would be truly awesome.
You could pay off the debt from selling ringside seats at that one! Awesome indeed. Perhaps JackW could adjudicate? It would give a nicely Jacobean flavour!
If Farage goes for anywhere other than one of those seats already identified in Kent and Lincolnshire then he is a fool.
His first and only aim should be to win a seat. Going for anything other than one of the UKIP council strongholds is vainglorious and suicidal.
Shouldn't the "target" seats already have candidates in place and campaigning by now?
Nope. UKIP have made clear they will decide their target seats after looking at the results of the May elections. However much I might disapprove of Farage's leadership that bit seems perfectly sensible to me.
Surely any "marginal" that Farage fights will be within easy reach of London!
The obvious constituency remains Thanet South.
With UKIP's recent council election successes, it is arguably a three way marginal already having been Labour between 1997-2010.
Farage has also stood in the constituency before (2005) and it is the home of Alan Bown, the UKIP donor who sponsored, inter alia, the recent Survation polls of marginals. Farage's prospects are further enhanced by Laura Sandys, the Tory incumbent, stepping down in 2015.
What would however make this contest electric would be for Farage to announce his candidacy in Thanet South and then for Boris Johnson to be selected as his Tory opponent.
Neither Nige nor BoJo need to win a constituency in 2015 - they both have existing better paid jobs - but there could be no greater personal political triumph than BoJo putting UKIP to the sword or vice versa.
This contest would be 24 hour box office. Stroke and heart attack incidence among the angry retired who populate the constituency would shatter all known records.
Boris vs Nigel would be truly awesome.
Absolutely. Sadly Boris would be totally insane to risk losing to Farage and the set-back to his career that would entail, so we don't stand a chance of seeing it happen.
I disagree.
Neither Nige nor Boris would lose political capital in defeat. Both would inflate each other's publicity in the battle.
And the East Kent seaside towns are places where people of Essex and the South East retire to die. Men go first and the remaining female majority hanker after star quality.
It is no accident that Thanet South was last a safe Tory seat under Jonathan Aitken and was the home of Alan Clark.
Not only would Boris win the widows' votes in a beauty contest he would also attract the minimal lib dems and more numerous labourites into tactical support. He would also turn the constituency into his fiefdom as the UKIP threat would only arise in 2015.
Barring Sir Malcolm standing down in Kensington I can't see a better option for Boris in 2015.
MOSCOW, March 17, 0:42 /ITAR-TASS/. Referendum in Crimea fully complied with international law norms, Russian President Vladimir Putin said early Monday morning in a conversation with U.S. President Barack Obama.
Final results expected within the hour. Both turnout and reunification votes expected to be higher than previous estimates.
MOSCOW, March 17, 0:42 /ITAR-TASS/. Referendum in Crimea fully complied with international law norms, Russian President Vladimir Putin said early Monday morning in a conversation with U.S. President Barack Obama.
Final results expected within the hour. Both turnout and reunification votes expected to be higher than previous estimates.
Good practice for some of the numpties on here, if they take this in then they will not be quite as shocked with the aftermath of the vote on 18th September.
Complete agree. Funny how Londoners don't think a direct link from Brum/Mcr to the continent is important. And I say that as one who lives in London.
Labour's meme (via Balls) is that HS2 faces cancellation. And one of the obvious ways to appease people like him is to cut costs. An obvious way of doing this is to cut the link, which will be little used (hence why they're hoping it can be made single-track).
If you want to know who to blame if the link goes, look at the Labour Party, who have turned the project into a big political football.
So to a large extent, blame Balls.
I wonder how the northern Labour councils will take it?
On another note, as I've said passim, I'd be surprised if building both halves concurrently would save money. This seems to be another thing to come out this week (again, much at Labour's call). IANAE, but I will be looking at the reasoning closely.
MOSCOW, March 17, 0:42 /ITAR-TASS/. Referendum in Crimea fully complied with international law norms, Russian President Vladimir Putin said early Monday morning in a conversation with U.S. President Barack Obama.
Final results expected within the hour. Both turnout and reunification votes expected to be higher than previous estimates.
Good practice for some of the numpties on here, if they take this in then they will not be quite as shocked with the aftermath of the vote on 18th September.
You are expecting a 95%+ Yes vote, malc?
To achieve that Eck would have to be the bully not the bullied.
Complete agree. Funny how Londoners don't think a direct link from Brum/Mcr to the continent is important. And I say that as one who lives in London.
Labour's meme (via Balls) is that HS2 faces cancellation. And one of the obvious ways to appease people like him is to cut costs. An obvious way of doing this is to cut the link, which will be little used (hence why they're hoping it can be made single-track).
If you want to know who to blame if the link goes, look at the Labour Party, who have turned the project into a big political football.
So to a large extent, blame Balls.
I wonder how the northern Labour councils will take it?
On another note, as I've said passim, I'd be surprised if building both halves concurrently would save money. This seems to be another thing to come out this week (again, much at Labour's call). IANAE, but I will be looking at the reasoning closely.
Would it not be cheaper to knock Birmingham down and rebuild it twenty minutes closer to London?
MOSCOW, March 17, 0:42 /ITAR-TASS/. Referendum in Crimea fully complied with international law norms, Russian President Vladimir Putin said early Monday morning in a conversation with U.S. President Barack Obama.
Final results expected within the hour. Both turnout and reunification votes expected to be higher than previous estimates.
Good practice for some of the numpties on here, if they take this in then they will not be quite as shocked with the aftermath of the vote on 18th September.
You are expecting a 95%+ Yes vote, malc?
To achieve that Eck would have to be the bully not the bullied.
You should thank your God that Eck is no Volodya.
Avery , I will be happy with 50% +1 , more than enough.
Complete agree. Funny how Londoners don't think a direct link from Brum/Mcr to the continent is important. And I say that as one who lives in London.
Labour's meme (via Balls) is that HS2 faces cancellation. And one of the obvious ways to appease people like him is to cut costs. An obvious way of doing this is to cut the link, which will be little used (hence why they're hoping it can be made single-track).
If you want to know who to blame if the link goes, look at the Labour Party, who have turned the project into a big political football.
So to a large extent, blame Balls.
I wonder how the northern Labour councils will take it?
On another note, as I've said passim, I'd be surprised if building both halves concurrently would save money. This seems to be another thing to come out this week (again, much at Labour's call). IANAE, but I will be looking at the reasoning closely.
Would it not be cheaper to knock Birmingham down and rebuild it twenty minutes closer to London?
Not if it'll take half an hour longer to get there due to congestion.
Remember: HS2 is mainly about capacity, not speed.
This is one thing the people anti-HS2 have to consider: what are the costs of *not* doing it?
Complete agree. Funny how Londoners don't think a direct link from Brum/Mcr to the continent is important. And I say that as one who lives in London.
Labour's meme (via Balls) is that HS2 faces cancellation. And one of the obvious ways to appease people like him is to cut costs. An obvious way of doing this is to cut the link, which will be little used (hence why they're hoping it can be made single-track).
If you want to know who to blame if the link goes, look at the Labour Party, who have turned the project into a big political football.
So to a large extent, blame Balls.
I wonder how the northern Labour councils will take it?
On another note, as I've said passim, I'd be surprised if building both halves concurrently would save money. This seems to be another thing to come out this week (again, much at Labour's call). IANAE, but I will be looking at the reasoning closely.
Would it not be cheaper to knock Birmingham down and rebuild it twenty minutes closer to London?
A good judge would demand that question is split into two proposed actions.
That would enable an entirely sane and logical affirmative response to the first and a negative to the second.
Complete agree. Funny how Londoners don't think a direct link from Brum/Mcr to the continent is important. And I say that as one who lives in London.
Labour's meme (via Balls) is that HS2 faces cancellation. And one of the obvious ways to appease people like him is to cut costs. An obvious way of doing this is to cut the link, which will be little used (hence why they're hoping it can be made single-track).
If you want to know who to blame if the link goes, look at the Labour Party, who have turned the project into a big political football.
So to a large extent, blame Balls.
I wonder how the northern Labour councils will take it?
On another note, as I've said passim, I'd be surprised if building both halves concurrently would save money. This seems to be another thing to come out this week (again, much at Labour's call). IANAE, but I will be looking at the reasoning closely.
Would it not be cheaper to knock Birmingham down and rebuild it twenty minutes closer to London?
Not if it'll take half an hour longer to get there due to congestion.
Remember: HS2 is mainly about capacity, not speed.
This is one thing the people anti-HS2 have to consider: what are the costs of *not* doing it?
Complete agree. Funny how Londoners don't think a direct link from Brum/Mcr to the continent is important. And I say that as one who lives in London.
Labour's meme (via Balls) is that HS2 faces cancellation. And one of the obvious ways to appease people like him is to cut costs. An obvious way of doing this is to cut the link, which will be little used (hence why they're hoping it can be made single-track).
If you want to know who to blame if the link goes, look at the Labour Party, who have turned the project into a big political football.
So to a large extent, blame Balls.
I wonder how the northern Labour councils will take it?
On another note, as I've said passim, I'd be surprised if building both halves concurrently would save money. This seems to be another thing to come out this week (again, much at Labour's call). IANAE, but I will be looking at the reasoning closely.
Would it not be cheaper to knock Birmingham down and rebuild it twenty minutes closer to London?
Not if it'll take half an hour longer to get there due to congestion.
Remember: HS2 is mainly about capacity, not speed.
This is one thing the people anti-HS2 have to consider: what are the costs of *not* doing it?
Complete agree. Funny how Londoners don't think a direct link from Brum/Mcr to the continent is important. And I say that as one who lives in London.
Labour's meme (via Balls) is that HS2 faces cancellation. And one of the obvious ways to appease people like him is to cut costs. An obvious way of doing this is to cut the link, which will be little used (hence why they're hoping it can be made single-track).
If you want to know who to blame if the link goes, look at the Labour Party, who have turned the project into a big political football.
So to a large extent, blame Balls.
I wonder how the northern Labour councils will take it?
On another note, as I've said passim, I'd be surprised if building both halves concurrently would save money. This seems to be another thing to come out this week (again, much at Labour's call). IANAE, but I will be looking at the reasoning closely.
Would it not be cheaper to knock Birmingham down and rebuild it twenty minutes closer to London?
Not if it'll take half an hour longer to get there due to congestion.
Remember: HS2 is mainly about capacity, not speed.
This is one thing the people anti-HS2 have to consider: what are the costs of *not* doing it?
Complete agree. Funny how Londoners don't think a direct link from Brum/Mcr to the continent is important. And I say that as one who lives in London.
Labour's meme (via Balls) is that HS2 faces cancellation. And one of the obvious ways to appease people like him is to cut costs. An obvious way of doing this is to cut the link, which will be little used (hence why they're hoping it can be made single-track).
If you want to know who to blame if the link goes, look at the Labour Party, who have turned the project into a big political football.
So to a large extent, blame Balls.
I wonder how the northern Labour councils will take it?
On another note, as I've said passim, I'd be surprised if building both halves concurrently would save money. This seems to be another thing to come out this week (again, much at Labour's call). IANAE, but I will be looking at the reasoning closely.
Would it not be cheaper to knock Birmingham down and rebuild it twenty minutes closer to London?
Not if it'll take half an hour longer to get there due to congestion.
Remember: HS2 is mainly about capacity, not speed.
This is one thing the people anti-HS2 have to consider: what are the costs of *not* doing it?
Complete agree. Funny how Londoners don't think a direct link from Brum/Mcr to the continent is important. And I say that as one who lives in London.
Labour's meme (via Balls) is that HS2 faces cancellation. And one of the obvious ways to appease people like him is to cut costs. An obvious way of doing this is to cut the link, which will be little used (hence why they're hoping it can be made single-track).
If you want to know who to blame if the link goes, look at the Labour Party, who have turned the project into a big political football.
So to a large extent, blame Balls.
I wonder how the northern Labour councils will take it?
On another note, as I've said passim, I'd be surprised if building both halves concurrently would save money. This seems to be another thing to come out this week (again, much at Labour's call). IANAE, but I will be looking at the reasoning closely.
Would it not be cheaper to knock Birmingham down and rebuild it twenty minutes closer to London?
Not if it'll take half an hour longer to get there due to congestion.
Remember: HS2 is mainly about capacity, not speed.
This is one thing the people anti-HS2 have to consider: what are the costs of *not* doing it?
To them personally the cost of doing it far outweighs the cost of it going ahead.
I live in an area that will be hugely affected in Cheryl Gillan's constituency, and believe me the natives are restless. Off the top of my head her majority was 16,000 plus last time, it will be slashed in 2015. In fact if you are looking for a big odds bet then UKIP to win here may be worth a punt.
She did not come out of the expenses scandal well at all, and three days after Greening confirmed HS2 would go ahead it was announced she had sold her house in Old Amersham, right on the HS2 route. She cited mobility problems and now lives in Surrey, but the mobility problems did not stop her 82 year old husband working as her 'office manager'
As a local HS2 does not worry me though I question where the money is coming from. However Gillan is a disgrace, I am off to find odds for a UKIP victory here.
If Farage goes for anywhere other than one of those seats already identified in Kent and Lincolnshire then he is a fool.
His first and only aim should be to win a seat. Going for anything other than one of the UKIP council strongholds is vainglorious and suicidal.
RT
Does Nige really want a Westminster seat? He seems quite happy iin the EU Parliament, which brings him more visibility and remuneration than any HoC seat would.
What he might be looking for in 2015 is a high visibility battle he could safely lose. After all this is what he chose in 2010.
If Farage goes for anywhere other than one of those seats already identified in Kent and Lincolnshire then he is a fool.
His first and only aim should be to win a seat. Going for anything other than one of the UKIP council strongholds is vainglorious and suicidal.
RT
Does Nige really want a Westminster seat? He seems quite happy iin the EU Parliament, which brings him more visibility and remuneration than any HoC seat would.
What he might be looking for in 2015 is a high visibility battle he could safely lose. After all this is what he chose in 2010.
Complete agree. Funny how Londoners don't think a direct link from Brum/Mcr to the continent is important. And I say that as one who lives in London.
Labour's meme (via Balls) is that HS2 faces cancellation. And one of the obvious ways to appease people like him is to cut costs. An obvious way of doing this is to cut the link, which will be little used (hence why they're hoping it can be made single-track).
If you want to know who to blame if the link goes, look at the Labour Party, who have turned the project into a big political football.
So to a large extent, blame Balls.
I wonder how the northern Labour councils will take it?
On another note, as I've said passim, I'd be surprised if building both halves concurrently would save money. This seems to be another thing to come out this week (again, much at Labour's call). IANAE, but I will be looking at the reasoning closely.
Would it not be cheaper to knock Birmingham down and rebuild it twenty minutes closer to London?
Not if it'll take half an hour longer to get there due to congestion.
Remember: HS2 is mainly about capacity, not speed.
This is one thing the people anti-HS2 have to consider: what are the costs of *not* doing it?
Best time to Birmingham New Street from London Euston is currently 1hr 22 minutes.
If Farage goes for anywhere other than one of those seats already identified in Kent and Lincolnshire then he is a fool.
His first and only aim should be to win a seat. Going for anything other than one of the UKIP council strongholds is vainglorious and suicidal.
RT
Does Nige really want a Westminster seat? He seems quite happy iin the EU Parliament, which brings him more visibility and remuneration than any HoC seat would.
What he might be looking for in 2015 is a high visibility battle he could safely lose. After all this is what he chose in 2010.
I think that 2015 will bear no comparison with 2010 as far as UKIP is concerned.
Complete agree. Funny how Londoners don't think a direct link from Brum/Mcr to the continent is important. And I say that as one who lives in London.
Labour's meme (via Balls) is that HS2 faces cancellation. And one of the obvious ways to appease people like him is to cut costs. An obvious way of doing this is to cut the link, which will be little used (hence why they're hoping it can be made single-track).
If you want to know who to blame if the link goes, look at the Labour Party, who have turned the project into a big political football.
So to a large extent, blame Balls.
I wonder how the northern Labour councils will take it?
On another note, as I've said passim, I'd be surprised if building both halves concurrently would save money. This seems to be another thing to come out this week (again, much at Labour's call). IANAE, but I will be looking at the reasoning closely.
Would it not be cheaper to knock Birmingham down and rebuild it twenty minutes closer to London?
Not if it'll take half an hour longer to get there due to congestion.
Remember: HS2 is mainly about capacity, not speed.
This is one thing the people anti-HS2 have to consider: what are the costs of *not* doing it?
Best time to Birmingham New Street from London Euston is currently 1hr 22 minutes.
If Farage goes for anywhere other than one of those seats already identified in Kent and Lincolnshire then he is a fool.
His first and only aim should be to win a seat. Going for anything other than one of the UKIP council strongholds is vainglorious and suicidal.
RT
Does Nige really want a Westminster seat? He seems quite happy iin the EU Parliament, which brings him more visibility and remuneration than any HoC seat would.
What he might be looking for in 2015 is a high visibility battle he could safely lose. After all this is what he chose in 2010.
I think that 2015 will bear no comparison with 2010 as far as UKIP is concerned.
If Farage goes for anywhere other than one of those seats already identified in Kent and Lincolnshire then he is a fool.
His first and only aim should be to win a seat. Going for anything other than one of the UKIP council strongholds is vainglorious and suicidal.
RT
Does Nige really want a Westminster seat? He seems quite happy iin the EU Parliament, which brings him more visibility and remuneration than any HoC seat would.
What he might be looking for in 2015 is a high visibility battle he could safely lose. After all this is what he chose in 2010.
I think that 2015 will bear no comparison with 2010 as far as UKIP is concerned.
Quite correct.
You have a passing chance of one seat as opposed to zero seats in 2010.
Complete agree. Funny how Londoners don't think a direct link from Brum/Mcr to the continent is important. And I say that as one who lives in London.
Labour's meme (via Balls) is that HS2 faces cancellation. And one of the obvious ways to appease people like him is to cut costs. An obvious way of doing this is to cut the link, which will be little used (hence why they're hoping it can be made single-track).
If you want to know who to blame if the link goes, look at the Labour Party, who have turned the project into a big political football.
So to a large extent, blame Balls.
I wonder how the northern Labour councils will take it?
On another note, as I've said passim, I'd be surprised if building both halves concurrently would save money. This seems to be another thing to come out this week (again, much at Labour's call). IANAE, but I will be looking at the reasoning closely.
Would it not be cheaper to knock Birmingham down and rebuild it twenty minutes closer to London?
Not if it'll take half an hour longer to get there due to congestion.
Remember: HS2 is mainly about capacity, not speed.
This is one thing the people anti-HS2 have to consider: what are the costs of *not* doing it?
Best time to Birmingham New Street from London Euston is currently 1hr 22 minutes.
I know Smeeth received 8 out of 10 nominations from ward branches. But as they can make 2 noms, it's not a good indicator without knowing how many noms the other 2 got (in Hanif's case also if she got the additional BAME nomination or one of the first 2 noms).
I know Smeeth received 8 out of 10 nominations from ward branches. But as they can make 2 noms, it's not a good indicator without knowing how many noms the other 2 got (in Hanif's case also if she got the additional BAME nomination or one of the first 2 noms).
Is that right, though? I think branches can nominate two for gender balance, but otherwise (when all candidates are women) just one plus an optimal BAME candidate? But I'm not a rules expert.
If Farage goes for anywhere other than one of those seats already identified in Kent and Lincolnshire then he is a fool.
His first and only aim should be to win a seat. Going for anything other than one of the UKIP council strongholds is vainglorious and suicidal.
RT
Does Nige really want a Westminster seat? He seems quite happy iin the EU Parliament, which brings him more visibility and remuneration than any HoC seat would.
What he might be looking for in 2015 is a high visibility battle he could safely lose. After all this is what he chose in 2010.
I think that 2015 will bear no comparison with 2010 as far as UKIP is concerned.
Quite correct.
You have a passing chance of one seat as opposed to zero seats in 2010.
We'll see who has the last laugh. It will be fun to see your sporran in a twist JackW.
Back at the time NEC restored the nomination process, Left Futures wrote "one man and/or one woman in open selections and for up to two women in all-women shortlist selections, plus a BAME nomination if neither of the first two are BAME"
So the 2 female nominations in AWS selections may be only an option and not oblighed..but in Dulwich they also used 2 nominations per branch. Same thing in Bristol South. Nominations from other AWS were not widely reported.
Reports that Higgins will tomorrow suggest that HS2 phase 1 should be extended to Crewe instead of Brum using a transport and works act for the final 43 miles to speed up delivery of that section.
under the microscope, isnt Farage all the things people dislike about politicians.It will all end in tears for UKIP
Possibly, what percentage of the vote do you think they will get in 2015?
@percivalsnooper As opposed to Cameron, a serial liar and oath breaker. Or Ed Milliband a brotherly back stabber, who has the charisma of used condom. Then there's Cleggover who's only had 30 women, poor thing.
under the microscope, isnt Farage all the things people dislike about politicians.It will all end in tears for UKIP
Possibly, what percentage of the vote do you think they will get in 2015?
@percivalsnooper As opposed to Cameron, a serial liar and oath breaker. Or Ed Milliband a brotherly back stabber, who has the charisma of used condom. Then there's Cleggover who's only had 30 women, poor thing.
I'll pick Farage any day against that lot.
I was trying to set him up for a bet on the UKIP % in 2015 but he obviously doesn't fancy it.
nigel, tihnk they will do much better than in 2010,think they may pick up lots of votes in the north of England in those areas that the Tories have abandoned. but i do think they will come under the microscope when the election approaches and i think they have plenty of skeletons in the cupboard, especially around expenses in the euro parliament,, and i still think that dodgy expenses wont play well with the electorate. not convinced they will win any seats even in the eastern coastal towns
Sorry for the crassness of that comment, but how any woman or self-certified BAME candidate can live with themselves knowing others were excluded because of their sex or self-certified race is beyond me.
As the late Jo Richardson said after quotas were introduced in the Shadow Cabinet elections, "I look forward to the day when there are as many crap women in the Shadow Cabinet as crap men"
I thought it might be worth pointing out that Malaysia is number one in the world rankings for Power Distance according to Geert Hofstede's Cultural Dimensions Theory.
This might be important in the context of the flight, because it means the First Officer may not have challenged the Captain for much longer than might be expected of someone from another country, especially given the considerable difference in age and flying experience between them, if for example the Captain had said they were going to follow an unusual course for the flight.
The issue affects me at work. I perceive lots of over-promoted people who hold certain protected characteristics. Makes my blood boil. So I try not to think about it.
I know Smeeth received 8 out of 10 nominations from ward branches. But as they can make 2 noms, it's not a good indicator without knowing how many noms the other 2 got (in Hanif's case also if she got the additional BAME nomination or one of the first 2 noms).
UKIP must be hoping Katie Ghose is selected. It's difficult to think of a candidate who would be less popular with old-fashioned Labour voters in a seat like Stoke North.
"Mr Farage declared in 2004 that ‘Ukip MEPs will not employ wives’ and ‘there will be no exceptions’. But yesterday he said he had decide to make an exception because of his workload."
under the microscope, isnt Farage all the things people dislike about politicians.It will all end in tears for UKIP
Possibly, what percentage of the vote do you think they will get in 2015?
@percivalsnooper As opposed to Cameron, a serial liar and oath breaker. Or Ed Milliband a brotherly back stabber, who has the charisma of used condom. Then there's Cleggover who's only had 30 women, poor thing.
22.30 Reuters is reporting that a Kremlin-backed journalist has issued a stark warning to the United States about Moscow's nuclear capabilities as the White House threatened sanctions over Crimea's referendum on union with Russia. "Russia is the only country in the world that is realistically capable of turning the United States into radioactive ash," television presenter Dmitry Kiselyov said on his weekly current affairs show. Behind him was a backdrop of a mushroom cloud following a nuclear blast. Kiselyov was named by President Vladimir Putin in December as the head of a new state news agency whose task will be to portray Russia in the best possible light.
Reminds me of the game Civilization, when the leaders would state 'our words are backed with nuclear weapons!'
Sunday’s referendum in Crimea had more legitimacy than presidential elections in the U.S.
Wonderful news release on ITAR-TASS:
There is not a slightest doubt about the democratic and free nature of the expression of will by people in Crimea, who voted Sunday in a referendum on the status of that Autonomous Republic, Andrei Klimov, a deputy chairman of the foreign policy committee in the upper house of Russian parliament told Itar-Tass Sunday.
He commented on a yet another warning from the U.S. Administration that Washington would not recognize the results of the Crimean referendum, as the American officials found it to be illegitimate.
In fact, Sunday’s referendum in Crimea had more legitimacy than presidential elections in the U.S., Andrei Klimov said, adding: ”Compared with Crimea, the U.S. gets far more dubious results at its elections of the head of state, since it is not the politician who gets the majority of people’s vote but, rather, the one enjoying support of the electors committees that emerges victorious from an election.”
“On the face of it, what we saw in Crimea was a direct expression of citizens’ will - a system that the Americans might stand to benefit from,” he said.
Klimov believes that “the people of any territory on the globe should have the right to determine its destiny independently.” “Whatever the situation, the people of Crimea didn’t give the right to choose destiny-making options for themselves either to Washington or to Brussels,” he said.
Perhaps OGH can persuade the members of the Russian Duma and Federation Council to debate the legitimacy of different voting systems on PB?
Why are both coalition parties top tossers fighting about who will succeed their leaders when every knows of swingback and 100% probability of Tory most seats?
"I don't think that this reflects well on any of the participants and perhaps if they continue it will lead to them being disqualified as serious contenders in future. If this is being promoted by senior secretaries of state it puts a serious question mark over their judgment."
"Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 dropped to altitudes as low as 5000 feet, or 1524 metres, using a dangerous flying technique called "terrain masking" to avoid radar in at least three countries, investigators believe.
The plane with 239 people on board also kept to commercial airline routes as it flew for more than seven hours after turning back from its scheduled flight path over the South China Sea, they believe.
..........
Investigators believe that by following commercial routes the plane did not raise the suspicion of people monitoring radar of the countries it overflew.
Terrain masking is used by military pilots for stealth flights. "
"There is a view in some quarters of the party, however, that any leadership contest without Johnson — soon after the election — would be invalid as the prince over the water would not be present, so some way would have to be found to delay it. “The danger is that some people who want him would not accept the outcome and we could end up in nightmare territory having another contest later in the parliament, triggered by MPs who wanted him there all along,” said a senior Tory. "
That Vince Cable's supporters have started to gurn and brief about Danny Alexander at this point is actually a good indication that he and his allies are in a far more weaker position going into this GE than they were going to into the last one when it was Clegg that Cable sought to undermine. Cable chose the Business brief, and he has been distinctly mediocre and failed to shine within the Government or as a prominent Libdem Minister when up against Osborne. Its pretty obvious that he also failed to work with Clegg to the benefit of his party either.
But its been Danny Alexander as Chief Secretary at the Treasury who has been the far more prominent and effective a Government Cabinet player for both the Libdems and the Government. He has consistently shown that he can work both within his party and with his Coalition party in a way that Cable has been consistently been unable too. Good on him! What do remember about Cable over the last year, oh yes, he has been chatting to the Labour party and he met up with his pal, mouth piece and Coalition critic Lord Oakshott.
Why are both coalition parties top tossers fighting about who will succeed their leaders when every knows of swingback and 100% probability of Tory most seats?
Maybe I'm being stupid by asking such a simple question, but surely you can get a rough idea of whereabouts on the red line - for both the northern and southern options - the plane would be at 8:11 assuming it hadn't zigzagged, flown around in circles or changed direction a lot of times.
Obviously this wouldn't give you two precise locations, but it would narrow it down a lot more than currently seems to be the case as far as the search operation is concerned.
To further clarify what I mean, surely it's very unlikely the plane would be anywhere on the red lines close to the central area after a further 6 hours of flight — unless it had indeed been flying around in circles for 6 hours, which seems very unlikely no matter what was going on in the cockpit.
Maybe I'm being stupid by asking such a simple question, but surely you can get a rough idea of whereabouts on the red line - for both the northern and southern options - the plane would be at 8:11 assuming it hadn't zigzagged, flown around in circles or changed direction a lot of times.
Obviously this wouldn't give you two precise locations, but it would narrow it down a lot more than currently seems to be the case as far as the search operation is concerned.
To further clarify what I mean, surely it's very unlikely the plane would be anywhere on the red lines close to the central area after a further 6 hours of flight — unless it had indeed been flying around in circles for 6 hours, which seems very unlikely no matter what was going on in the cockpit.
Am I making any sense?
I guess it all depends on how it got to the curve.
Maybe I'm being stupid by asking such a simple question, but surely you can get a rough idea of whereabouts on the red line - for both the northern and southern options - the plane would be at 8:11 assuming it hadn't zigzagged, flown around in circles or changed direction a lot of times.
Obviously this wouldn't give you two precise locations, but it would narrow it down a lot more than currently seems to be the case as far as the search operation is concerned.
To further clarify what I mean, surely it's very unlikely the plane would be anywhere on the red lines close to the, central area after a further 6 hours of flight — unless it had indeed been flying around in circles for 6 hours, which seems very unlikely no matter what was going on in the cockpit.
Am I making any sense?
Andy
As I understand it from comments on PPRuNe, the red arcs have been drawn on the basis of ping messages received by a single Inmarsat satellite. It is not therefore possible to get a position even by 2 dimensional triangulation. The ping messages additionally contain no positional data.
The main calculations are based on known transmission time delays with the extremes of the arcs calculated from additional known limits on aircraft speed, altitude etc. as well as satellite coverage angles for the frequency at which the messages were received.
This all makes sense.
One PPRuNe poster suggested that the data from which the arcs have been drawn could be compared to ping data from other aircraft where additional information is known, such as full ACARS and transponder transmissions. Even deploying a B777-200 to do a demonstration flight might help enrich the current data.
Again this makes sense.
Given the sheer scale of the Search and Rescue area, even based on the two arcs, I expect the SAR efffort to be intelligence lead rather than just a sweep of all possible locations. So groups of experts of all types will be gathering together to list a range of options and then giving each a priority. It is obviously easier to look at even 600 landing strips within range than thousands of square miles of Southern Indian Ocean. The flight SIM may well be yielding likely flight routes and landing destinations as I type this.
I am sure all the security forces assisting the Malaysians will be amassing a lot of intelligence data beyond satellite positioning to help narrow down the immediate search options.
"known transmission time delays" should probably be better expressed as "known signal strength attenuation over time".
So they know the signal strength at the time of transmission from the aircraft (given normal signalling operations) and the rate at which signal strength attenuates over time, distance, angle and atmospheric conditions. From this an inexact distance of signal packet travel can be calculated.
The northern ping "track" is about 80% over China.
Has the possibility of a Chinese shootdown/forcedown been discounted?
Military radar detection, intercept and shootdown has been discussed but while it is accepted as a possibility, and there are precedents (USSR on Korea, USA on Iran), no one really considers it likely.
The reason being that it would be very difficult to conceal the consequences.
If China did it, with the majority of the passengers being Chinese, and the news came out later in full view of the world, the political consequences would disastrous for the government.
The reason being that it would be very difficult to conceal the consequences.
If China did it, with the majority of the passengers being Chinese, and the news came out later in full view of the world, the political consequences would disastrous for the government.
Mmm. But maybe it won't ever come out! Knowing the premium put on face saving in that part of the world, maybe all we'll hear, if anything, is in about a month (when the bbox batteries have died} that sherpas have "discovered" wreckage in some "remote region"...
Comments
In 1897, Ukrainians were 12% of Crimea's pop., in 1939 they were 14%.
Is it the same reason they are dead set against giving the British people the right to vote to leave the EU, should they choose to do so?
I was pointing out that the USSR murdered millions of people in the area by starving them to death and that this affected the ethnic mix, because ethnic Russians moved in to the now-depopulated areas. That Crimea and the Ukraine were administered separately doesn't contradict this.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bengal_famine_of_1943
The 93% exit poll estimate of the reunification vote has been widely published.
Here is some additional, mainly turnout, information released by ITAR-TASS
Preliminary data says that the voters turnout across the region was 73.4% on the average. In the main naval port city of Sevastopol where the main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is located, 85% registered voters came to the polls.
Particularly noticeable was the participation of 40% Crimean Tatars in the referendum.
The voting procedures were monitored by about 70 international observers from 23 countries. Their scope included members of European parliament, leading experts in international law, and human rights activists.
All the above statistics are in line with expectations.
Would you agree with me that the turnout is at least better then the 1973 Ulster poll in which only 59% of the Northern Irish turned out to vote, due to a Catholic/Nationlist boycott? Reportedly only 1% of Nationalists voted.
A majority for the Union of 99% was therefore achieved, even more splendidly impressive than today's Crimean 93%!
You must rid yourself of all purple in your avatar and replace it with the following portrait:
http://bit.ly/OugG0R
Russian to his core
Potemkin "exuded both menace and welcome"; he was arrogant, demanding of his courtiers and very changeable in his moods but also fascinating, warm and kind. It was generally agreed among his female companions that he was "amply endowed with 'sex appeal'".[Montefiore]
Louis Philippe, comte de Ségur described him as "colossal like Russia", "an inconceivable mixture of grandeur and pettiness, laziness and activity, bravery and timidity, ambition and insouciance".
Catherine the Great's lifelong love. There is strong evidence the two married in secret.
The Budget 2014: Backstage truce between Osbourne and Balls in BBC 'green room' disguises dispute over issues
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-budget-2014-backstage-truce-between-osbourne-and-balls-in-bbc-green-room-disguises-dispute-over-issues-9195845.html
Complete agree. Funny how Londoners don't think a direct link from Brum/Mcr to the continent is important. And I say that as one who lives in London.
Neither Nige nor Boris would lose political capital in defeat. Both would inflate each other's publicity in the battle.
And the East Kent seaside towns are places where people of Essex and the South East retire to die. Men go first and the remaining female majority hanker after star quality.
It is no accident that Thanet South was last a safe Tory seat under Jonathan Aitken and was the home of Alan Clark.
Not only would Boris win the widows' votes in a beauty contest he would also attract the minimal lib dems and more numerous labourites into tactical support. He would also turn the constituency into his fiefdom as the UKIP threat would only arise in 2015.
Barring Sir Malcolm standing down in Kensington I can't see a better option for Boris in 2015.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frP86R9ZNCM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4WEr1pB5A8
But the yellow tories and the scottish tory surgers at least wouldn't be dumb enough to think all their councillors are squeaky clean, would they? The PB tories are always wrong. The PB tories never learn. Same for yellow tory lib dems.
Blimey, I thought we had all the fruit cakes.
Final results expected within the hour. Both turnout and reunification votes expected to be higher than previous estimates.
If you want to know who to blame if the link goes, look at the Labour Party, who have turned the project into a big political football.
So to a large extent, blame Balls.
I wonder how the northern Labour councils will take it?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24209709
On another note, as I've said passim, I'd be surprised if building both halves concurrently would save money. This seems to be another thing to come out this week (again, much at Labour's call). IANAE, but I will be looking at the reasoning closely.
To achieve that Eck would have to be the bully not the bullied.
You should thank your God that Eck is no Volodya.
Remember: HS2 is mainly about capacity, not speed.
This is one thing the people anti-HS2 have to consider: what are the costs of *not* doing it?
That would enable an entirely sane and logical affirmative response to the first and a negative to the second.
ZERO
A better question to our malc would be:
Care to explain your drinking? ;-)
I live in an area that will be hugely affected in Cheryl Gillan's constituency, and believe me the natives are restless. Off the top of my head her majority was 16,000 plus last time, it will be slashed in 2015. In fact if you are looking for a big odds bet then UKIP to win here may be worth a punt.
She did not come out of the expenses scandal well at all, and three days after Greening confirmed HS2 would go ahead it was announced she had sold her house in Old Amersham, right on the HS2 route. She cited mobility problems and now lives in Surrey, but the mobility problems did not stop her 82 year old husband working as her 'office manager'
As a local HS2 does not worry me though I question where the money is coming from. However Gillan is a disgrace, I am off to find odds for a UKIP victory here.
He might even be able to manage a joint fruitcake OMRLP ticket.
Cam can only be attacked on the credibility of his referendum promise.
This would be difficult. In rural Oxfordshire a gentleman's word is taken as his bond.
http://ojp.nationalrail.co.uk/service/timesandfares/London/Birmingham/tomorrow/1015/dep
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Speed_2#Journey_times
The following may also be of use:
http://www.hs2.org.uk/phase-two/facts-figures
You have a passing chance of one seat as opposed to zero seats in 2010.
Katie Ghose http://www.katieghose.org.uk/
Zaeba Hanif (Stoke North CLP women officer)
Ruth Smeeth (2010 Burton candidate, former NEC candidate, deputy director of Hate senior activist http://www.ruthsmeeth.org.uk/
I know Smeeth received 8 out of 10 nominations from ward branches. But as they can make 2 noms, it's not a good indicator without knowing how many noms the other 2 got (in Hanif's case also if she got the additional BAME nomination or one of the first 2 noms).
erm...I originally wrote "senior activist of Hope not Hate"...then I checked her actual position...and I messed up the editing..
Back at the time NEC restored the nomination process, Left Futures wrote "one man and/or one woman in open selections and for up to two women in all-women shortlist selections, plus a BAME nomination if neither of the first two are BAME"
So the 2 female nominations in AWS selections may be only an option and not oblighed..but in Dulwich they also used 2 nominations per branch. Same thing in Bristol South. Nominations from other AWS were not widely reported.
As opposed to Cameron, a serial liar and oath breaker.
Or Ed Milliband a brotherly back stabber, who has the charisma of used condom.
Then there's Cleggover who's only had 30 women, poor thing.
I'll pick Farage any day against that lot.
95.7% in favour of reunifcation with Russia.
3.2% in favour of staying as autonomous region within the Ukraine.
1.1% spoilt ballots.
Getting closer to the 98.9% pro-Union vote in the Ulster 1973 poll!
tihnk they will do much better than in 2010,think they may pick up lots of votes in the north of England in those areas that the Tories have abandoned.
but i do think they will come under the microscope when the election approaches and i think they have plenty of skeletons in the cupboard, especially around expenses in the euro parliament,, and i still think that dodgy expenses wont play well with the electorate.
not convinced they will win any seats even in the eastern coastal towns
This might be important in the context of the flight, because it means the First Officer may not have challenged the Captain for much longer than might be expected of someone from another country, especially given the considerable difference in age and flying experience between them, if for example the Captain had said they were going to follow an unusual course for the flight.
http://www.clearlycultural.com/geert-hofstede-cultural-dimensions/power-distance-index/
http://geert-hofstede.com/malaysia.html
I wouldn't favour any discrimination in the workplace (either way)
"Mr Farage declared in 2004 that ‘Ukip MEPs will not employ wives’ and ‘there will be no exceptions’. But yesterday he said he had decide to make an exception because of his workload."
So Farage is just another do as I say,not as I do politician,what a surprise.
Wonderful news release on ITAR-TASS:
There is not a slightest doubt about the democratic and free nature of the expression of will by people in Crimea, who voted Sunday in a referendum on the status of that Autonomous Republic, Andrei Klimov, a deputy chairman of the foreign policy committee in the upper house of Russian parliament told Itar-Tass Sunday.
He commented on a yet another warning from the U.S. Administration that Washington would not recognize the results of the Crimean referendum, as the American officials found it to be illegitimate.
In fact, Sunday’s referendum in Crimea had more legitimacy than presidential elections in the U.S., Andrei Klimov said, adding: ”Compared with Crimea, the U.S. gets far more dubious results at its elections of the head of state, since it is not the politician who gets the majority of people’s vote but, rather, the one enjoying support of the electors committees that emerges victorious from an election.”
“On the face of it, what we saw in Crimea was a direct expression of citizens’ will - a system that the Americans might stand to benefit from,” he said.
Klimov believes that “the people of any territory on the globe should have the right to determine its destiny independently.” “Whatever the situation, the people of Crimea didn’t give the right to choose destiny-making options for themselves either to Washington or to Brussels,” he said.
Perhaps OGH can persuade the members of the Russian Duma and Federation Council to debate the legitimacy of different voting systems on PB?
As with everything the Lib Dems follow the Tory line....this time on backstabbing:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2576591/Danny-vs-Vince-Young-pretender-Alexander-power-struggle-Cable-succeeds-Clegg-leader.html
Why are both coalition parties top tossers fighting about who will succeed their leaders when every knows of swingback and 100% probability of Tory most seats?
A nice overview of who hates who:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/16/top-tories-plot-leadership-boris-johnson-david-cameron
"I don't think that this reflects well on any of the participants and perhaps if they continue it will lead to them being disqualified as serious contenders in future. If this is being promoted by senior secretaries of state it puts a serious question mark over their judgment."
Your only a week out of date with that news,desperation or what?
Not used to all that sunshine in Liverpool?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/9836664/Malaysian-jet-avoided-radars-in-three-countries
"Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 dropped to altitudes as low as 5000 feet, or 1524 metres, using a dangerous flying technique called "terrain masking" to avoid radar in at least three countries, investigators believe.
The plane with 239 people on board also kept to commercial airline routes as it flew for more than seven hours after turning back from its scheduled flight path over the South China Sea, they believe.
..........
Investigators believe that by following commercial routes the plane did not raise the suspicion of people monitoring radar of the countries it overflew.
Terrain masking is used by military pilots for stealth flights. "
"There is a view in some quarters of the party, however, that any leadership contest without Johnson — soon after the election — would be invalid as the prince over the water would not be present, so some way would have to be found to delay it. “The danger is that some people who want him would not accept the outcome and we could end up in nightmare territory having another contest later in the parliament, triggered by MPs who wanted him there all along,” said a senior Tory. "
Daily Mail - Labour MPs accuse Miliband of a 'shoddy compromise' for ruling out EU referendum to protect his only pro-business policy
Daily Mail - Onslaught from all sides over Miliband's stand on Europe poll: MPs and donors attack 'shoddy compromise' on the issue
That Vince Cable's supporters have started to gurn and brief about Danny Alexander at this point is actually a good indication that he and his allies are in a far more weaker position going into this GE than they were going to into the last one when it was Clegg that Cable sought to undermine. Cable chose the Business brief, and he has been distinctly mediocre and failed to shine within the Government or as a prominent Libdem Minister when up against Osborne. Its pretty obvious that he also failed to work with Clegg to the benefit of his party either.
But its been Danny Alexander as Chief Secretary at the Treasury who has been the far more prominent and effective a Government Cabinet player for both the Libdems and the Government. He has consistently shown that he can work both within his party and with his Coalition party in a way that Cable has been consistently been unable too. Good on him! What do remember about Cable over the last year, oh yes, he has been chatting to the Labour party and he met up with his pal, mouth piece and Coalition critic Lord Oakshott.
"Among the measures, airliners are now required to identify themselves much earlier when approaching Israel’s airspace. Other actions were not disclosed at this time..."
ie. this:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/03/15/article-2581488-1C502A6A00000578-886_634x460.jpg
Maybe I'm being stupid by asking such a simple question, but surely you can get a rough idea of whereabouts on the red line - for both the northern and southern options - the plane would be at 8:11 assuming it hadn't zigzagged, flown around in circles or changed direction a lot of times.
Obviously this wouldn't give you two precise locations, but it would narrow it down a lot more than currently seems to be the case as far as the search operation is concerned.
To further clarify what I mean, surely it's very unlikely the plane would be anywhere on the red lines close to the central area after a further 6 hours of flight — unless it had indeed been flying around in circles for 6 hours, which seems very unlikely no matter what was going on in the cockpit.
Am I making any sense?
As I understand it from comments on PPRuNe, the red arcs have been drawn on the basis of ping messages received by a single Inmarsat satellite. It is not therefore possible to get a position even by 2 dimensional triangulation. The ping messages additionally contain no positional data.
The main calculations are based on known transmission time delays with the extremes of the arcs calculated from additional known limits on aircraft speed, altitude etc. as well as satellite coverage angles for the frequency at which the messages were received.
This all makes sense.
One PPRuNe poster suggested that the data from which the arcs have been drawn could be compared to ping data from other aircraft where additional information is known, such as full ACARS and transponder transmissions. Even deploying a B777-200 to do a demonstration flight might help enrich the current data.
Again this makes sense.
Given the sheer scale of the Search and Rescue area, even based on the two arcs, I expect the SAR efffort to be intelligence lead rather than just a sweep of all possible locations. So groups of experts of all types will be gathering together to list a range of options and then giving each a priority. It is obviously easier to look at even 600 landing strips within range than thousands of square miles of Southern Indian Ocean. The flight SIM may well be yielding likely flight routes and landing destinations as I type this.
I am sure all the security forces assisting the Malaysians will be amassing a lot of intelligence data beyond satellite positioning to help narrow down the immediate search options.
"known transmission time delays" should probably be better expressed as "known signal strength attenuation over time".
So they know the signal strength at the time of transmission from the aircraft (given normal signalling operations) and the rate at which signal strength attenuates over time, distance, angle and atmospheric conditions. From this an inexact distance of signal packet travel can be calculated.
I think!
The northern ping "track" is about 80% over China.
Has the possibility of a Chinese shootdown/forcedown been discounted?
The reason being that it would be very difficult to conceal the consequences.
If China did it, with the majority of the passengers being Chinese, and the news came out later in full view of the world, the political consequences would disastrous for the government.