This article is a bit out of date (June this year) - but I think it provides at some length a good explanation why you haven't heard all that much about economic policy detail from Harris.
The Death of “Deliverism” https://democracyjournal.org/arguments/the-death-of-deliverism/ ...Whatever the causes, it turns out that unhappiness is a very strong predictor of voting behavior. Being extremely unhappy more than doubled a person’s likelihood of voting for Trump in 2016, and the unhappiest counties were the Trumpiest. As social scientist Johannes Eichstaedt and colleagues show, “Unhappiness predicted the Trump vote better than race, income levels, or unemployment, how many immigrants had moved into the county, or how old or religious the citizens were. Unhappiness also predicted the Trump election better than other subjective variables, like how people thought the economy was going or would be going in the future.”
Other researchers have shown that counties that went to Trump were often “landscapes of despair,” characterized by more economic distress, poor health, low educational attainment, high alcohol and suicide mortality rates, and high divorce rates. States with the lowest life expectancies and education levels used to vote strongly for Democrats, but the past four decades have witnessed what Nobel laureate Angus Deaton called an “extraordinary realignment,” with those states now heavily favoring the Republican Party...
..The emotional alchemy of the authoritarian approach is so strong that it can override facts and material reality. Trump duped millions with his false claim to have brought back manufacturing jobs. (In reality, manufacturing jobs declined during his Administration.) By contrast, Biden’s success in reducing unemployment to the lowest level in 54 years goes virtually uncredited, with his approval rating hitting an all-time low of 36 percent this past May. In the same poll, an astounding 54 percent of Americans said that Trump handled the economy better than Biden has so far, compared to just 36 percent of Americans who felt the opposite was true. The MAGA extremist response succeeds because it speaks to a visceral sense of dissatisfaction and promises security, belonging, and recognition...
..importantly, authoritarianism does not depend on solving people’s problems to succeed politically..
Taking hundreds of words to say what Reagan said in eight: “Are you better off than four years ago?”
It says the exact opposite of that.
People that are unhappy want to vote out those in charge, even when the alternative is seen as somewhat extreme by the incumbent Establishment. We are seeing this all over Europe, and it won’t be a surprise to see it again in the US. Trump is as much a symptom as a cause.
Perhaps that's why Harris's campaign theme is "joy" - rather than "look what a good job we did on the economy" ?
“Joy”, and avoiding any difficult questions, might work in convention season, but I don’t see that they can run it all the way to November without having to outline at least some economic policy ideas.
I don't see Harris losing any of the states that Biden won in 2020.
I also expect her to win North Carolina.
And Florida iasn't yet out of reach.
I'd be extremely wary about making bullish predictions like that. There are certainly credible scenarios that lead to a Harris landslide (FWIW, I think Texas falls to her before Florida these days), but they're not the central case by any means.
Trump has enough form from 2016 and 2020 for engaging new / marginalised voters that didn't show up in earlier voting to make me sceptical about the accuracy of all US polling at the moment. The state polls in 2020 were particularly poor (which is thoroughly unhelpful when they're also so critical). They weren't much better in 2016. Plus there's the issue of him having sought to install officials running these elections who will do everything they can to deliver him the result administratively, if he doesn't win via the vote (and to bias the voting procedures to him too). Obviously, those are in places where Republicans have already won so in many cases not swing states - but in some they will be. That's a critical lesson he learned from 2020. Plus, of course, the Electoral College is currently biased to the Republicans in terms of national vote.
Trump still hasn't really found an effective attack line on Harris, or a one-word nickname that puts the necessary doubt in independents and marginal voters rather than his core - but that doesn't mean he won't, though time is rapidly running out.
Personally, I make the race extremely tight, with Trump marginal favourite, albeit that his ceiling is lower than Harris's, both in ECVs and vote totals.
All valid points, David, but for me overwhelmed by the strong sense of something on the turn and going off, something which has had its time, the 'something' being Donald Trump. If you feel this way the best time to say so - and to bet on it - is before it's fully reflected in the polls. Eg right now you can get decent prices (via the EC bands market on betfair) on a big Harris win. That's what I'm doing.
Fair enough if that's your judgement. All I'll say is that the normal rules don't apply to Trump. If they did, he'd have been out of the game for good in early 2016, well before the Republican nomination was decided. Harris does, IMO, have the opportunity to nail Trump as a laughing stock who's lost the plot and is losing his marbles but isn't hitting the target yet, as far as I can see. That's his true vulnerability (despite the fact it should be that his values and behaviour make him unfit for office).
There's a reason the Teamsters aren't making an endorsement this time, which is that their members are pro-Trump.
For all his faults, Joe Biden was always seen as a Union man.
Kamala Harris, well, isn’t. She’s is seen as a West Coast Liberal, lawyer, former prosecutor etc. Very much one of ‘them’ rather than one of ‘us’.
Trump at least gives the impression of standing up for the average working-class person, even if you don’t agree with him on everything. His latest interjection on payday lending being yet another positive example.
Those in California and New York have too but that is obviously less important. But that is a good selection of the most important marginal states.
Didn’t see that, thanks. While the national decisions make the news, we shouldn’t lose track of this being a series of local elections.
I’m still of the opinion that everything runs through Pennsylvania, unless there’s landslide one way or the other.
We are in complete agreement on that. If Harris wins PA she will also win Wisconsin and Michigan because they are moving together and are just a little less hard. If she loses PA she is hoping for something surprising like North Carolina or Georgia to take its place, both of which are much harder for her.
Its why, for all Walz's folksy charm, I would have gone for Shapiro. I really hope she doesn't regret that.
Sadly we all know why she didn’t go for Shapiro. I agree he was the better choice.
EXCL @GBNEWS: David Lammy sparks diplomatic row after 'ignorant' blog post on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Armenian diplomats are urgently seeking clarification after Lammy wrote in a blog that Azerbaijan had been able to 'liberate' territory.
What an absolute clanger he's dropped there. It's the sort of language you'd expect from a partisan sitrep milliblogger covering some conflict or other - certainly not what the HS should be coming out with.
This really matters, for a number of reasons.
Poor Armenia. With friends like us...
"taken" would have been an obvious non row causing word to use. Of course being gung-ho partisan on the side of Armenia wouldn't be great either as Azerbaijan is supported/funded/besties with Turkey (Erdogan had a first row seat next to Aliyev for the victory parade a few years back) and Turkey is of course a NATO ally. Armenia whilst historically a Russian ally has fallen a bit out of bed with them as Putin has obviously been unable/unwilling to commit any "peacekeeping" troops to help them out (Obviously his hands are full with Ukraine etc) - so it's a nation that has iirc been looking slightly more westward than previously. Most of the world believes, I think I'm right in this that Azerbaijan is the aggressor in this one and Armenia the wronged - so this won't help us at the UN for instance.. Whilst precisely noone is going to change their vote on this issue in the UK it's the sort of conflict that requires careful diplomacy and words from our foreign secretary.
It could be argued that Armenia only became a Russian ally through CTSO because Turkey sided with Azerbaijan, and no-one else wanted to help them.
Turkey, of course, having a rather fractious history with Armenians. Which I should perhaps just leave at that...
"it's the sort of conflict that requires careful diplomacy and words from our foreign secretary."
Damn right.
What’s odd is that this wasn’t picked up in internal reviews. It’s clearly not intended to be a deliberate slight - it’s buried in a substack post about Ukraine. A decent reviewer would have picked up such obviously inflammatory language. A FS shouldn’t be allowed to publish pieces like this without them being raked over by the risk and brand police first. Poor governance.
Of course the Azeris are loving it. “Armenian terrorists moaning because Lammy tells truth about Karabakh”. The visceral, deep seated hatred between those two tiny countries has to be seen to be believed.
Sky - only 30% of the population own a home and have a mortgage
This is one of those huge generational changes that people understand "in the small" (i.e. most people understand the living-at-home and renting stats among millennials) but not "in the large" - (i.e. millennials are now in their 30s and 40s, and many gen-z are well into their 20s).
What's good for home owners is no longer synonymous with what's good for people who go out and vote.
The quote is a little odd, though.
"Only 30% of the population own a home and have a mortgage".
EXCL @GBNEWS: David Lammy sparks diplomatic row after 'ignorant' blog post on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Armenian diplomats are urgently seeking clarification after Lammy wrote in a blog that Azerbaijan had been able to 'liberate' territory.
What an absolute clanger he's dropped there. It's the sort of language you'd expect from a partisan sitrep milliblogger covering some conflict or other - certainly not what the HS should be coming out with.
This really matters, for a number of reasons.
Poor Armenia. With friends like us...
If we try to judge the Government on its own merits, not in contrast to the predecessor. Is it just me, or does it all seem to be quite awful? That even if they have good ideas to implement its all going to get washed away and watered down? For the first few weeks it felt like "hit the ground running" government, one i'm not sympathetic to or voted for, but it did at least appear to be the return of proper government. But, since then it has just turned into a mess. This is mid term blues and we are eighty days in. A friend messaged me this morning to say that a painted bedsheet was hanging from a road bridge that just said "twatter Kier". Eighty days in.. I get the feeling its going to be like that documentary Supersize Me.
Two advantages of the plain, no-fee UK AMEX credit card:
- 1% cashback on everything - They let you set up a direct debit to pay the entire balance each month, almost as if it's a chargecard. So you can guarantee no interest is charged.
I only use it in places I already know take it, though.
Amex used to have this arrangement (maybe still does) where it will deal with any damage claims on car hire when you use its card to pay. It meant you didn't have to argue with rental companies about inflated repair bills or take out extortionate daily collision damage waivers
That hailstorm came out of nowhere. I was definitely not watching it on the radar for 2 hours beforehand.
Sorry about the 60 dents in the roof and the cracked windscreen. I'm sure they'll buff out.
Sometimes the daily collision waivers pay for themselves...
Car rental in most European holiday destinations is a total scam.
It all originates from the companies being local franchises of the well-known brands, and the brand owners seeing themselves as little more than booking agents. They have to get hundreds if not thousands of complaints before they take anything seriously, and know that if they re-tender the franchise they’ll have exactly the same problems from the next guy - who’s pretty likely to be the same guy with a new company, or that guy’s cousin.
These days, Hertz/Europcar/Avis are less franchises and more centrally managed (largely because their major costs are cars and financing, and the bigger you are, the better deal you can negotiate). All three of them make far more money from selling "insurance" than they do from renting cars.
Interesting, when did that change?
I know they all did really well after the pandemic, when used cars were selling for more than new cars, but that situation has now reversed sharply and with added interest rates.
Is that +4 from its earlier survey or is it just showing the gap*?
(*I hate how US pollsters do this – I mean we can subtract 46 from 50 FFS...)
It's the gap. And yes it is infuriating. The reason they do it is because of roundings. For instance it could be Harris 50.4, Trump 45.6 which would be shown as
🔵 Harris 50% (+5) 🔴 Trump 46%
Or Harris 49.6, Trump 46.4 which would be
🔵 Harris 50% (+3) 🔴 Trump 46%
🔵 Harris 50% (+4) 🔴 Trump 46%
is the case in 70% of 50/46 polls if the individual scores are calculated to 1 dp, rising to 75.5% of results for the individual scores displayed as is but truly calculated to 2 dp.
Interesting though that is, it doesn't correctly get why Arizona (and Nevada) have swung Blue. It's nothing to do with Hispanics, and all to do with a massive increase in the proportion of graduates.
Tech companies relocating from California, or allowing WFH somewhere cheaper?
"3.9 million on sickness benefits as Covid continues to take toll Every local authority in England and Wales bar one has had a rise in claimants, with experts suggesting the pandemic may have hit an ailing population and NHS harder"
I’ve seen from extended family experience that our benefits system does itself no favours by seemingly refusing to accept someone can be unwell or injured and still able to do one or two days of work a week. I think we’d see far more people (officially, legally) back in part time work or self employment if sickness benefits weren’t such an all or nothing phenomenon.
EXCL @GBNEWS: David Lammy sparks diplomatic row after 'ignorant' blog post on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Armenian diplomats are urgently seeking clarification after Lammy wrote in a blog that Azerbaijan had been able to 'liberate' territory.
What an absolute clanger he's dropped there. It's the sort of language you'd expect from a partisan sitrep milliblogger covering some conflict or other - certainly not what the HS should be coming out with.
This really matters, for a number of reasons.
Poor Armenia. With friends like us...
"taken" would have been an obvious non row causing word to use. Of course being gung-ho partisan on the side of Armenia wouldn't be great either as Azerbaijan is supported/funded/besties with Turkey (Erdogan had a first row seat next to Aliyev for the victory parade a few years back) and Turkey is of course a NATO ally. Armenia whilst historically a Russian ally has fallen a bit out of bed with them as Putin has obviously been unable/unwilling to commit any "peacekeeping" troops to help them out (Obviously his hands are full with Ukraine etc) - so it's a nation that has iirc been looking slightly more westward than previously. Most of the world believes, I think I'm right in this that Azerbaijan is the aggressor in this one and Armenia the wronged - so this won't help us at the UN for instance.. Whilst precisely noone is going to change their vote on this issue in the UK it's the sort of conflict that requires careful diplomacy and words from our foreign secretary.
It could be argued that Armenia only became a Russian ally through CTSO because Turkey sided with Azerbaijan, and no-one else wanted to help them.
Turkey, of course, having a rather fractious history with Armenians. Which I should perhaps just leave at that...
"it's the sort of conflict that requires careful diplomacy and words from our foreign secretary."
Damn right.
What’s odd is that this wasn’t picked up in internal reviews. It’s clearly not intended to be a deliberate slight - it’s buried in a substance post about Ukraine. A decent reviewer would have picked up such obviously inflammatory language. A FS shouldn’t be allowed to publish pieces like this without them being raked over by the risk and brand police first. Poor governance.
Of course the Azeris are loving it. “Armenian terrorists moaning because Lammy tells truth about Karabakh”. The visceral, deep seated hatred between those two tiny countries has to be seen to be believed.
Baffling though. Any politician who had the first clue what was going on in that part of the world would have had alarm bells going off in his head at that word.
This article is a bit out of date (June this year) - but I think it provides at some length a good explanation why you haven't heard all that much about economic policy detail from Harris.
The Death of “Deliverism” https://democracyjournal.org/arguments/the-death-of-deliverism/ ...Whatever the causes, it turns out that unhappiness is a very strong predictor of voting behavior. Being extremely unhappy more than doubled a person’s likelihood of voting for Trump in 2016, and the unhappiest counties were the Trumpiest. As social scientist Johannes Eichstaedt and colleagues show, “Unhappiness predicted the Trump vote better than race, income levels, or unemployment, how many immigrants had moved into the county, or how old or religious the citizens were. Unhappiness also predicted the Trump election better than other subjective variables, like how people thought the economy was going or would be going in the future.”
Other researchers have shown that counties that went to Trump were often “landscapes of despair,” characterized by more economic distress, poor health, low educational attainment, high alcohol and suicide mortality rates, and high divorce rates. States with the lowest life expectancies and education levels used to vote strongly for Democrats, but the past four decades have witnessed what Nobel laureate Angus Deaton called an “extraordinary realignment,” with those states now heavily favoring the Republican Party...
..The emotional alchemy of the authoritarian approach is so strong that it can override facts and material reality. Trump duped millions with his false claim to have brought back manufacturing jobs. (In reality, manufacturing jobs declined during his Administration.) By contrast, Biden’s success in reducing unemployment to the lowest level in 54 years goes virtually uncredited, with his approval rating hitting an all-time low of 36 percent this past May. In the same poll, an astounding 54 percent of Americans said that Trump handled the economy better than Biden has so far, compared to just 36 percent of Americans who felt the opposite was true. The MAGA extremist response succeeds because it speaks to a visceral sense of dissatisfaction and promises security, belonging, and recognition...
..importantly, authoritarianism does not depend on solving people’s problems to succeed politically..
Taking hundreds of words to say what Reagan said in eight: “Are you better off than four years ago?”
It says the exact opposite of that.
People that are unhappy want to vote out those in charge, even when the alternative is seen as somewhat extreme by the incumbent Establishment. We are seeing this all over Europe, and it won’t be a surprise to see it again in the US. Trump is as much a symptom as a cause.
Sure. But that unhappiness his little correlation with whether people are actually, objectively, better off than they were four years ago - never mind whether the alternative is likely to make things better rather than worse. Grievance politics goes way beyond relying on logic and facts.
Reality is that the economics of a world in which 600m or so people have a First World standard of living looks very different from one in which 3-4bn do, even before adding in the effect of (related) anti-Climate Change measures.
Agree that you don’t have to be actually worse off, simply feeling worse off is enough.
Inflation, especially in food and utilities, has been brutal in the US in the past four years. As in the UK, there’s a large disconnect between official economic statistics and the average person’s experience. The items with the highest inflation have been essential items, which make up a large proportion of the spending of the poorest deciles. Those poorest deciles have experienced personal inflation much more than the top deciles.
Which is why she should be pinning it on Trump's economic legacy. Tax cuts for billionaires vs cost rises for the average person. Basic monetary economics isn't hard to explain: Trump constantly lobbied for ultra-low interest rates and ran deficits in the trillions. All that extra money has to push prices up somewhere. As would his tariffs now.
True, it wasn't all his fault but the time has gone when he deserved goodwill or fair play.
Sky - only 30% of the population own a home and have a mortgage
This is one of those huge generational changes that people understand "in the small" (i.e. most people understand the living-at-home and renting stats among millennials) but not "in the large" - (i.e. millennials are now in their 30s and 40s, and many gen-z are well into their 20s).
What's good for home owners is no longer synonymous with what's good for people who go out and vote.
The quote is a little odd, though.
"Only 30% of the population own a home and have a mortgage".
Is that +4 from its earlier survey or is it just showing the gap*?
(*I hate how US pollsters do this – I mean we can subtract 46 from 50 FFS...)
It's the gap. And yes it is infuriating. The reason they do it is because of roundings. For instance it could be Harris 50.4, Trump 45.6 which would be shown as
🔵 Harris 50% (+5) 🔴 Trump 46%
Or Harris 49.6, Trump 46.4 which would be
🔵 Harris 50% (+3) 🔴 Trump 46%
🔵 Harris 50% (+4) 🔴 Trump 46%
is the case in 70% of 50/46 polls if the individual scores are calculated to 1 dp, rising to 75.5% of results for the individual scores displayed as is but truly calculated to 2 dp.
What remains deeply depressing is that 46% of any population - in this case voters in Pennsylvania - support someone as revolting and amoral as Donald Trump.
For geeks, there's some stuff about side road Zebra-crossings, as we see in Paris, and how here hardly any Councils would do any on-road trials because they were scared off in the absence of any data from trials proving that it was safe to do a trial.
Is that +4 from its earlier survey or is it just showing the gap*?
(*I hate how US pollsters do this – I mean we can subtract 46 from 50 FFS...)
It's the gap. And yes it is infuriating. The reason they do it is because of roundings. For instance it could be Harris 50.4, Trump 45.6 which would be shown as
🔵 Harris 50% (+5) 🔴 Trump 46%
Or Harris 49.6, Trump 46.4 which would be
🔵 Harris 50% (+3) 🔴 Trump 46%
🔵 Harris 50% (+4) 🔴 Trump 46%
is the case in 70% of 50/46 polls if the individual scores are calculated to 1 dp, rising to 75.5% of results for the individual scores displayed as is but truly calculated to 2 dp.
EXCL @GBNEWS: David Lammy sparks diplomatic row after 'ignorant' blog post on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Armenian diplomats are urgently seeking clarification after Lammy wrote in a blog that Azerbaijan had been able to 'liberate' territory.
What an absolute clanger he's dropped there. It's the sort of language you'd expect from a partisan sitrep milliblogger covering some conflict or other - certainly not what the HS should be coming out with.
This really matters, for a number of reasons.
Poor Armenia. With friends like us...
"taken" would have been an obvious non row causing word to use. Of course being gung-ho partisan on the side of Armenia wouldn't be great either as Azerbaijan is supported/funded/besties with Turkey (Erdogan had a first row seat next to Aliyev for the victory parade a few years back) and Turkey is of course a NATO ally. Armenia whilst historically a Russian ally has fallen a bit out of bed with them as Putin has obviously been unable/unwilling to commit any "peacekeeping" troops to help them out (Obviously his hands are full with Ukraine etc) - so it's a nation that has iirc been looking slightly more westward than previously. Most of the world believes, I think I'm right in this that Azerbaijan is the aggressor in this one and Armenia the wronged - so this won't help us at the UN for instance.. Whilst precisely noone is going to change their vote on this issue in the UK it's the sort of conflict that requires careful diplomacy and words from our foreign secretary.
It could be argued that Armenia only became a Russian ally through CTSO because Turkey sided with Azerbaijan, and no-one else wanted to help them.
Turkey, of course, having a rather fractious history with Armenians. Which I should perhaps just leave at that...
"it's the sort of conflict that requires careful diplomacy and words from our foreign secretary."
Damn right.
What’s odd is that this wasn’t picked up in internal reviews. It’s clearly not intended to be a deliberate slight - it’s buried in a substance post about Ukraine. A decent reviewer would have picked up such obviously inflammatory language. A FS shouldn’t be allowed to publish pieces like this without them being raked over by the risk and brand police first. Poor governance.
Of course the Azeris are loving it. “Armenian terrorists moaning because Lammy tells truth about Karabakh”. The visceral, deep seated hatred between those two tiny countries has to be seen to be believed.
Baffling though. Any politician who had the first clue what was going on in that part of the world would have had alarm bells going off in his head at that word.
I’m generally a cock up theorist so I’m assuming ignorance or carelessness.
A conspiracy theorist would wonder if Erdogan’s behind it in some way or this is a way of trying to keep Turkey onside vs Russia.
"3.9 million on sickness benefits as Covid continues to take toll Every local authority in England and Wales bar one has had a rise in claimants, with experts suggesting the pandemic may have hit an ailing population and NHS harder"
I’ve seen from extended family experience that our benefits system does itself no favours by seemingly refusing to accept someone can be unwell or injured and still able to do one or two days of work a week. I think we’d see far more people (officially, legally) back in part time work or self employment if sickness benefits weren’t such an all or nothing phenomenon.
Government should be encouraging part-time options from employers. There are a load of remote customer service jobs (telephone/email/chat support stuff), that someone could log in and log out at their convenience, and be paid for the hours they do. But it needs to be proper employment, not self-employment.
"3.9 million on sickness benefits as Covid continues to take toll Every local authority in England and Wales bar one has had a rise in claimants, with experts suggesting the pandemic may have hit an ailing population and NHS harder"
I’ve seen from extended family experience that our benefits system does itself no favours by seemingly refusing to accept someone can be unwell or injured and still able to do one or two days of work a week. I think we’d see far more people (officially, legally) back in part time work or self employment if sickness benefits weren’t such an all or nothing phenomenon.
Government should be encouraging part-time options from employers. There are a load of remote customer service jobs (telephone/email/chat support stuff), that someone could log in and log out at their convenience, and be paid for the hours they do. But it needs to be proper employment, not self-employment.
Following this week's supreme court ruling - pretend self-employment is virtually impossible.
This article is a bit out of date (June this year) - but I think it provides at some length a good explanation why you haven't heard all that much about economic policy detail from Harris.
The Death of “Deliverism” https://democracyjournal.org/arguments/the-death-of-deliverism/ ...Whatever the causes, it turns out that unhappiness is a very strong predictor of voting behavior. Being extremely unhappy more than doubled a person’s likelihood of voting for Trump in 2016, and the unhappiest counties were the Trumpiest. As social scientist Johannes Eichstaedt and colleagues show, “Unhappiness predicted the Trump vote better than race, income levels, or unemployment, how many immigrants had moved into the county, or how old or religious the citizens were. Unhappiness also predicted the Trump election better than other subjective variables, like how people thought the economy was going or would be going in the future.”
Other researchers have shown that counties that went to Trump were often “landscapes of despair,” characterized by more economic distress, poor health, low educational attainment, high alcohol and suicide mortality rates, and high divorce rates. States with the lowest life expectancies and education levels used to vote strongly for Democrats, but the past four decades have witnessed what Nobel laureate Angus Deaton called an “extraordinary realignment,” with those states now heavily favoring the Republican Party...
..The emotional alchemy of the authoritarian approach is so strong that it can override facts and material reality. Trump duped millions with his false claim to have brought back manufacturing jobs. (In reality, manufacturing jobs declined during his Administration.) By contrast, Biden’s success in reducing unemployment to the lowest level in 54 years goes virtually uncredited, with his approval rating hitting an all-time low of 36 percent this past May. In the same poll, an astounding 54 percent of Americans said that Trump handled the economy better than Biden has so far, compared to just 36 percent of Americans who felt the opposite was true. The MAGA extremist response succeeds because it speaks to a visceral sense of dissatisfaction and promises security, belonging, and recognition...
..importantly, authoritarianism does not depend on solving people’s problems to succeed politically..
Taking hundreds of words to say what Reagan said in eight: “Are you better off than four years ago?”
It says the exact opposite of that.
People that are unhappy want to vote out those in charge, even when the alternative is seen as somewhat extreme by the incumbent Establishment. We are seeing this all over Europe, and it won’t be a surprise to see it again in the US. Trump is as much a symptom as a cause.
Perhaps that's why Harris's campaign theme is "joy" - rather than "look what a good job we did on the economy" ?
“Joy”, and avoiding any difficult questions, might work in convention season, but I don’t see that they can run it all the way to November without having to outline at least some economic policy ideas.
Of course they will do that. I said theme, rather than entire manifesto.
The point is that every media pundit has been trying to corral Harris on policy - something they don't appear to give a hoot about for Trump - and she has realised that on its own won't win the election.
Of course the Democrats are sounder on the economy - the GOP just defeated their own funding bill in Congress, threatening another shutdown - but talking about that alone won't win the election.
You're effectively complaining about Harris working out why Trump has been winning, and beating him at his own game.
EXCL @GBNEWS: David Lammy sparks diplomatic row after 'ignorant' blog post on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Armenian diplomats are urgently seeking clarification after Lammy wrote in a blog that Azerbaijan had been able to 'liberate' territory.
What an absolute clanger he's dropped there. It's the sort of language you'd expect from a partisan sitrep milliblogger covering some conflict or other - certainly not what the HS should be coming out with.
This really matters, for a number of reasons.
Poor Armenia. With friends like us...
If we try to judge the Government on its own merits, not in contrast to the predecessor. Is it just me, or does it all seem to be quite awful? That even if they have good ideas to implement its all going to get washed away and watered down? For the first few weeks it felt like "hit the ground running" government, one i'm not sympathetic to or voted for, but it did at least appear to be the return of proper government. But, since then it has just turned into a mess. This is mid term blues and we are eighty days in. A friend messaged me this morning to say that a painted bedsheet was hanging from a road bridge that just said "twatter Kier". Eighty days in.. I get the feeling its going to be like that documentary Supersize Me.
I agree, and (whispers quietly): it's because SKS probably isn't very good at this politics lark.
Hear me out. He became Labour leader in April 2020, just in time for Covid. He did a reasonable job of trying to rid the party of the Corbynite persuasion (which he, of course, was a cabinet member of...), but Boris was supreme.
For a while.
SKS did not have to do much to become PM; first Johnson, and then the Conservative Party, made a series of unforced, relatively trivial errors, and SKS sat back and let them self-destruct.
I think this is seen in the GE result, which gave Labour a whopping majority on a small percentage, but had none of the excitement that Blair's win in 1997 had. The people are not keen for SKS or Labour; they're just fed up with the Tories.
And now we have SKS and Labour making a series of unforced, relatively trivial errors.
All these errorss were avoidable: in some cases, they point to a greed in SKS that sets him widely apart from the public. The 'son of a toolmaker' shit won't last long when he and his wife get bungs of free clothes.
EXCL @GBNEWS: David Lammy sparks diplomatic row after 'ignorant' blog post on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Armenian diplomats are urgently seeking clarification after Lammy wrote in a blog that Azerbaijan had been able to 'liberate' territory.
What an absolute clanger he's dropped there. It's the sort of language you'd expect from a partisan sitrep milliblogger covering some conflict or other - certainly not what the HS should be coming out with.
This really matters, for a number of reasons.
Poor Armenia. With friends like us...
If we try to judge the Government on its own merits, not in contrast to the predecessor. Is it just me, or does it all seem to be quite awful? That even if they have good ideas to implement its all going to get washed away and watered down? For the first few weeks it felt like "hit the ground running" government, one i'm not sympathetic to or voted for, but it did at least appear to be the return of proper government. But, since then it has just turned into a mess. This is mid term blues and we are eighty days in. A friend messaged me this morning to say that a painted bedsheet was hanging from a road bridge that just said "twatter Kier". Eighty days in.. I get the feeling its going to be like that documentary Supersize Me.
The pmq where he called Sunak the PM 5 times in a row looks more than just a slip. He doesn't believe he is, and doesn't much want to be except for the freebies
Perhaps the delayed budget is a deliberate ploy. Truss was tolerated till her budget then BOOM, the delay gives him time to establish himself? The problem being he is not filling the time or the news cycles and there's nothing to do but make fun of him.
Is that +4 from its earlier survey or is it just showing the gap*?
(*I hate how US pollsters do this – I mean we can subtract 46 from 50 FFS...)
It's the gap. And yes it is infuriating. The reason they do it is because of roundings. For instance it could be Harris 50.4, Trump 45.6 which would be shown as
🔵 Harris 50% (+5) 🔴 Trump 46%
Or Harris 49.6, Trump 46.4 which would be
🔵 Harris 50% (+3) 🔴 Trump 46%
🔵 Harris 50% (+4) 🔴 Trump 46%
is the case in 70% of 50/46 polls if the individual scores are calculated to 1 dp, rising to 75.5% of results for the individual scores displayed as is but truly calculated to 2 dp.
What's far more infuriating is that the usage isn't even consistent. Occasionally it means movement from the last poll.
Some prisoners released early as part of efforts to ease overcrowding have not been fitted with electronic tracking devices, despite it being a condition of their release, the BBC has been told.
Is that +4 from its earlier survey or is it just showing the gap*?
(*I hate how US pollsters do this – I mean we can subtract 46 from 50 FFS...)
It's the gap. And yes it is infuriating. The reason they do it is because of roundings. For instance it could be Harris 50.4, Trump 45.6 which would be shown as
🔵 Harris 50% (+5) 🔴 Trump 46%
Or Harris 49.6, Trump 46.4 which would be
🔵 Harris 50% (+3) 🔴 Trump 46%
🔵 Harris 50% (+4) 🔴 Trump 46%
is the case in 70% of 50/46 polls if the individual scores are calculated to 1 dp, rising to 75.5% of results for the individual scores displayed as is but truly calculated to 2 dp.
75.05% if you go to 3 dp. I assume it trends to 75%, though I can't think of a quick proof ! Interesting that it goes from 70/100 results to 7,550/10,000 then to 750,500/1,000,000 as the resolution of the original numbers is increased.
Of course the change from previous would be far more useful
Some prisoners released early as part of efforts to ease overcrowding have not been fitted with electronic tracking devices, despite it being a condition of their release, the BBC has been told.
Sky - only 30% of the population own a home and have a mortgage
This is one of those huge generational changes that people understand "in the small" (i.e. most people understand the living-at-home and renting stats among millennials) but not "in the large" - (i.e. millennials are now in their 30s and 40s, and many gen-z are well into their 20s).
What's good for home owners is no longer synonymous with what's good for people who go out and vote.
The quote is a little odd, though.
"Only 30% of the population own a home and have a mortgage".
EXCL @GBNEWS: David Lammy sparks diplomatic row after 'ignorant' blog post on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Armenian diplomats are urgently seeking clarification after Lammy wrote in a blog that Azerbaijan had been able to 'liberate' territory.
What an absolute clanger he's dropped there. It's the sort of language you'd expect from a partisan sitrep milliblogger covering some conflict or other - certainly not what the HS should be coming out with.
This really matters, for a number of reasons.
Poor Armenia. With friends like us...
If we try to judge the Government on its own merits, not in contrast to the predecessor. Is it just me, or does it all seem to be quite awful? That even if they have good ideas to implement its all going to get washed away and watered down? For the first few weeks it felt like "hit the ground running" government, one i'm not sympathetic to or voted for, but it did at least appear to be the return of proper government. But, since then it has just turned into a mess. This is mid term blues and we are eighty days in. A friend messaged me this morning to say that a painted bedsheet was hanging from a road bridge that just said "twatter Kier". Eighty days in.. I get the feeling its going to be like that documentary Supersize Me.
I agree, and (whispers quietly): it's because SKS probably isn't very good at this politics lark.
Hear me out. He became Labour leader in April 2020, just in time for Covid. He did a reasonable job of trying to rid the party of the Corbynite persuasion (which he, of course, was a cabinet member of...), but Boris was supreme.
For a while.
SKS did not have to do much to become PM; first Johnson, and then the Conservative Party, made a series of unforced, relatively trivial errors, and SKS sat back and let them self-destruct.
I think this is seen in the GE result, which gave Labour a whopping majority on a small percentage, but had none of the excitement that Blair's win in 1997 had. The people are not keen for SKS or Labour; they're just fed up with the Tories.
And now we have SKS and Labour making a series of unforced, relatively trivial errors.
All these errorss were avoidable: in some cases, they point to a greed in SKS that sets him widely apart from the public. The 'son of a toolmaker' shit won't last long when he and his wife get bungs of free clothes.
SKSICIPM?
Time will tell, but I don't feel too inclined to argue at the moment. Turning around Labour did require a certain ruthlessness though, which he did show. Being PM requires more than that, though - ideas, too.
In case anyone missed that, the GOP just voted down their own funding bill, a fortnight away from a government shutdown, and a month and a half before the election.
Just out of the briefing on the hiring freeze, the main reasons given are the uncertainty around what the new government is proposing on tax, worker rights and the economic outlook in the UK and more widely in Europe. Hence the investment now being shifted to APAC.
And that's lost business for UK plc all because of Rachel's phoney war. Still, only 41 sleeps to budget day.
She utterly ficked it - damaged inward investment and scared off a lot of people who would continue to invest and pay taxes just for political point scoring.
Still, Sir Keir is a serious lawyer and grown up, Angela is a woman of the people who raves in Ibiza - so edgy, and Rachel worked at the Bank of England who have got everything right over the years so no better CV.
Yes, it is definitely hurting. For these two roles just in my team it was 2x £120k-150k salary budgets that will no longer be spent in the UK at least for 12-18 months. That's ~£140k in tax that won't get paid now just from income tax and NI let alone the additional VAT from spending generated by those two very high earners.
All fair points but most people don't operate in the £120-150k salary range. The economic policy of this country can't simply be attuned to the wealthy and the fear some (perhaps only a few) might or might not decide to leave.
This kind of financial and political intimidation is already occurring and it's a tune we've heard played quite often and expecially when there is a threat of tax rises. Quite clearly, there is a group which sees an alternative prospectus in reducing tax rates to generate growth and I'm not unsympathetic to the viewpoint.
The truth is we are running an annual budget deficit of £80-90 billion which is absurd - it's more than we spend on defence. It's unsustainable and there seems very little actual discussion on how it is to be reduced beyond the tired old schtick of cutting taxes and spending which suits those who pay a lot of tax and don't use public services. The mood, as we saw with Truss, doesn't support that any longer given most people use public services in one form or another and are perhaps recognising their preservation is of greater value.
You're missing the point entirely, it's not just my team where hiring has been frozen, we're just looking for those two high end positions. Loads of mid level roles have also been shit canned at £50-70k and looking across the industry we're not the first company to do this in the last few months and nor will we be the last.
You seem to be making the argument for fewer highly paid jobs in the UK which makes no sense to me at all.
If you want to cut the deficit then you need to cut spending. You don't like to hear it but that means big cuts to state employment. The state employs more people than ever and accomplishes less than ever. Cutting people and increasing output per worker is the only way to sustainably reduce the deficit, raising tax will just push until a low growth dynamic and we'll forever be chasing our tail. Cutting spending is the answer but people like you don't want to admit that there are swathes of useless people employed in the public sector that could actually be doing something productive in other parts of the economy.
Your world isn't mine and my time in the public sector is long past but I did my time and saw a lot of people doing incredible jobs on often very little money.
I'm not sure who these "swathes of useless people are" or where they are in the "public sector". The Local Government sector has lost a million jobs since 2012 and there are actually only about half a million civil servants as defined by those working in Government Departments.
There's the NHS, the armed forces and some other areas but this is another reply which is long on generalities and short on specifics. I think there are perceptions about how the public sector operates which are just inaccurate and lead to claims of "swathes of useless people" which don't really exist or stand up to any form of scrutiny.
"3.9 million on sickness benefits as Covid continues to take toll Every local authority in England and Wales bar one has had a rise in claimants, with experts suggesting the pandemic may have hit an ailing population and NHS harder"
I’ve seen from extended family experience that our benefits system does itself no favours by seemingly refusing to accept someone can be unwell or injured and still able to do one or two days of work a week. I think we’d see far more people (officially, legally) back in part time work or self employment if sickness benefits weren’t such an all or nothing phenomenon.
We really ought to start from asking "what CAN you do?". Clearly it will be different for different people. The other great danger is the people get stuck in the system and give up.
Footballer in court after £600,000 of cannabis seized at UK airport
It comes after officers from the National Crime Agency (NCA) discovered 60kg of cannabis with an estimated value of £600,000 in suitcases arriving at Stansted Airport from Bangkok...She said that they were travelling business class into the UK from Bangkok via Dubai.
Two advantages of the plain, no-fee UK AMEX credit card:
- 1% cashback on everything - They let you set up a direct debit to pay the entire balance each month, almost as if it's a chargecard. So you can guarantee no interest is charged.
I only use it in places I already know take it, though.
Amex used to have this arrangement (maybe still does) where it will deal with any damage claims on car hire when you use its card to pay. It meant you didn't have to argue with rental companies about inflated repair bills or take out extortionate daily collision damage waivers
That hailstorm came out of nowhere. I was definitely not watching it on the radar for 2 hours beforehand.
Sorry about the 60 dents in the roof and the cracked windscreen. I'm sure they'll buff out.
Sometimes the daily collision waivers pay for themselves...
Car rental in most European holiday destinations is a total scam.
It all originates from the companies being local franchises of the well-known brands, and the brand owners seeing themselves as little more than booking agents. They have to get hundreds if not thousands of complaints before they take anything seriously, and know that if they re-tender the franchise they’ll have exactly the same problems from the next guy - who’s pretty likely to be the same guy with a new company, or that guy’s cousin.
These days, Hertz/Europcar/Avis are less franchises and more centrally managed (largely because their major costs are cars and financing, and the bigger you are, the better deal you can negotiate). All three of them make far more money from selling "insurance" than they do from renting cars.
I've had to claim twice on 3rd-party insurance for rental vans (once my fault, once the rental company lying). Was tedious, but possible and successful both times.
How the 3rd-party insurance makes any money charging £35 a year and then paying out £600 for me, I don't know. I mean, I know, but I'm surprised how cheap it is.
In case anyone missed that, the GOP just voted down their own funding bill, a fortnight away from a government shutdown, and a month and a half before the election.
This article is a bit out of date (June this year) - but I think it provides at some length a good explanation why you haven't heard all that much about economic policy detail from Harris.
The Death of “Deliverism” https://democracyjournal.org/arguments/the-death-of-deliverism/ ...Whatever the causes, it turns out that unhappiness is a very strong predictor of voting behavior. Being extremely unhappy more than doubled a person’s likelihood of voting for Trump in 2016, and the unhappiest counties were the Trumpiest. As social scientist Johannes Eichstaedt and colleagues show, “Unhappiness predicted the Trump vote better than race, income levels, or unemployment, how many immigrants had moved into the county, or how old or religious the citizens were. Unhappiness also predicted the Trump election better than other subjective variables, like how people thought the economy was going or would be going in the future.”
Other researchers have shown that counties that went to Trump were often “landscapes of despair,” characterized by more economic distress, poor health, low educational attainment, high alcohol and suicide mortality rates, and high divorce rates. States with the lowest life expectancies and education levels used to vote strongly for Democrats, but the past four decades have witnessed what Nobel laureate Angus Deaton called an “extraordinary realignment,” with those states now heavily favoring the Republican Party...
..The emotional alchemy of the authoritarian approach is so strong that it can override facts and material reality. Trump duped millions with his false claim to have brought back manufacturing jobs. (In reality, manufacturing jobs declined during his Administration.) By contrast, Biden’s success in reducing unemployment to the lowest level in 54 years goes virtually uncredited, with his approval rating hitting an all-time low of 36 percent this past May. In the same poll, an astounding 54 percent of Americans said that Trump handled the economy better than Biden has so far, compared to just 36 percent of Americans who felt the opposite was true. The MAGA extremist response succeeds because it speaks to a visceral sense of dissatisfaction and promises security, belonging, and recognition...
..importantly, authoritarianism does not depend on solving people’s problems to succeed politically..
"The Rising Wave of Unhappiness Happiness, measured in a variety of ways, has been on the decline for decades in the United States"
Why? Probably because society has been changing too fast for most people.
I would propose the following: One of the biggest factors in happiness is not your current situation, but whether you think next year will be better than this year. In the USA it used to be blatantly obvious that - in general - it would be. Now it no longer is. Citizens of the USA still have it pretty good, in world terms. But I'd suggest that that's not really relevant for happiness. What's driving unhappiness is that it's no longer getting any better.
But the trouble is, even if things actually do get better, a large proportion of the media will still tell you things are not getting better.
EXCL @GBNEWS: David Lammy sparks diplomatic row after 'ignorant' blog post on Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Armenian diplomats are urgently seeking clarification after Lammy wrote in a blog that Azerbaijan had been able to 'liberate' territory.
What an absolute clanger he's dropped there. It's the sort of language you'd expect from a partisan sitrep milliblogger covering some conflict or other - certainly not what the HS should be coming out with.
This really matters, for a number of reasons.
Poor Armenia. With friends like us...
"taken" would have been an obvious non row causing word to use. Of course being gung-ho partisan on the side of Armenia wouldn't be great either as Azerbaijan is supported/funded/besties with Turkey (Erdogan had a first row seat next to Aliyev for the victory parade a few years back) and Turkey is of course a NATO ally. Armenia whilst historically a Russian ally has fallen a bit out of bed with them as Putin has obviously been unable/unwilling to commit any "peacekeeping" troops to help them out (Obviously his hands are full with Ukraine etc) - so it's a nation that has iirc been looking slightly more westward than previously. Most of the world believes, I think I'm right in this that Azerbaijan is the aggressor in this one and Armenia the wronged - so this won't help us at the UN for instance.. Whilst precisely noone is going to change their vote on this issue in the UK it's the sort of conflict that requires careful diplomacy and words from our foreign secretary.
It could be argued that Armenia only became a Russian ally through CTSO because Turkey sided with Azerbaijan, and no-one else wanted to help them.
Turkey, of course, having a rather fractious history with Armenians. Which I should perhaps just leave at that...
"it's the sort of conflict that requires careful diplomacy and words from our foreign secretary."
Damn right.
What’s odd is that this wasn’t picked up in internal reviews. It’s clearly not intended to be a deliberate slight - it’s buried in a substance post about Ukraine. A decent reviewer would have picked up such obviously inflammatory language. A FS shouldn’t be allowed to publish pieces like this without them being raked over by the risk and brand police first. Poor governance.
Of course the Azeris are loving it. “Armenian terrorists moaning because Lammy tells truth about Karabakh”. The visceral, deep seated hatred between those two tiny countries has to be seen to be believed.
Baffling though. Any politician who had the first clue what was going on in that part of the world would have had alarm bells going off in his head at that word.
Footballer in court after £600,000 of cannabis seized at UK airport
It comes after officers from the National Crime Agency (NCA) discovered 60kg of cannabis with an estimated value of £600,000 in suitcases arriving at Stansted Airport from Bangkok...She said that they were travelling business class into the UK from Bangkok via Dubai.
A temporary cap on interest rates on credit card rates.
I have no enthusiasm for Kamala Harris but Trump is just mad.
Probably at temporary as the temporary windfall tax we have on oil and gas companies.
Didn't we do something similar with payday lenders.
Yes. It’s a really difficult industry to regulate, because you have a high risk of delinquency but also many ‘unofficial’ sources of lending available to the poorest.
It wasn’t lending, it was usury.
The truly evil thing about the payday lenders was them letting the loans rollover.
So a customer took out a £1,000 loan for 12 months and after they first payment they would refinance the loan for another 12 months, so after 12 months the customer had paid back £1,800 but their debt was around £800.
Glad to see you agreeing with Trump.
Credit cards generally do not have usury rates of interest.
(One of my AMEX cards has an APR of 800% but that’s because of the fee.)
Edit - The Platinum Card has a competitive APR of 704% because of the annual fee of £650.
Does anyone anywhere actually accept American Express? Maybe it's only the kind of places I wouldn't want to be in the first place.
Really good hotels, bars, restaurants, sporting/gig venues.
The concierge services they offer are amazing.
I can't remember the last place I went that would accept AMEX.
My local pub and local Tesco and wine supplier all accept AMEX. So does Amazon. I have no problem with it. I get back about £10 a month in Nector points which more than covers the annual fee which I think is £25. I clear the account each month so pay no interest.
I’ve had problems in recent travels with Santander and Halifax and Barclay all questioning and stopping Visa and Mastercard payments. It’s because they can’t believe someone would travel this much - so they think it’s fraudulent. This despite me telling them my job involves frequent travel. Maddening
The one card that works every time? Often my last hope? Amex
The Israeli government did not tamper with the Hezbollah devices that exploded, defense and intelligence officials say. It manufactured them as part of an elaborate ruse.
By all appearances, B.A.C. Consulting was a Hungary-based company that was under contract to produce the devices on behalf of a Taiwanese company, Gold Apollo. In fact, it was part of an Israeli front, according to three intelligence officers briefed on the operation. They said at least two other shell companies were created as well to mask the real identities of the people creating the pagers: Israeli intelligence officers. B.A.C. did take on ordinary clients, for which it produced a range of ordinary pagers. But the only client that really mattered was Hezbollah, and its pagers were far from ordinary. Produced separately, they contained batteries laced with the explosive PETN, according to the three intelligence officers.
Footballer in court after £600,000 of cannabis seized at UK airport
It comes after officers from the National Crime Agency (NCA) discovered 60kg of cannabis with an estimated value of £600,000 in suitcases arriving at Stansted Airport from Bangkok...She said that they were travelling business class into the UK from Bangkok via Dubai.
Interesting though that is, it doesn't correctly get why Arizona (and Nevada) have swung Blue. It's nothing to do with Hispanics, and all to do with a massive increase in the proportion of graduates.
Tech companies relocating from California, or allowing WFH somewhere cheaper?
The trend is a longer term one, beginning in around 2004-2006, and my guess is that it was initially caused by the high cost of living (both housing and taxes) in California. In addition, Arizona has a really thriving University sector (ASU and University of Arizona) that has grown dramatically over the period.
There was a really good NPR article on the changes, and it showed that - over the course of 3/4 electoral cycles - Arizona had gone from about 7 pecentage points fewer graduates than the national average to 3 above. Almost all the voting changes in the State can be explained by that, given how much Democrats outperform with college educated Americans.
Some good polls for Harris. Will it convince Trump to double down on another debate, or just keep in his comfort zone of rallies and Fox news interviews?
The VP debate in 2 weeks, while probably inconsequential, has an approximately zero percent chance of being won by Vance.
Is that +4 from its earlier survey or is it just showing the gap*?
(*I hate how US pollsters do this – I mean we can subtract 46 from 50 FFS...)
It's the gap. And yes it is infuriating. The reason they do it is because of roundings. For instance it could be Harris 50.4, Trump 45.6 which would be shown as
🔵 Harris 50% (+5) 🔴 Trump 46%
Or Harris 49.6, Trump 46.4 which would be
🔵 Harris 50% (+3) 🔴 Trump 46%
🔵 Harris 50% (+4) 🔴 Trump 46%
is the case in 70% of 50/46 polls if the individual scores are calculated to 1 dp, rising to 75.5% of results for the individual scores displayed as is but truly calculated to 2 dp.
What remains deeply depressing is that 46% of any population - in this case voters in Pennsylvania - support someone as revolting and amoral as Donald Trump.
It is. Although I predict a clear Harris win I am still worried about a couple of things - the first to do with Trump and the second with her.
Trump: As his prospects decline his advisors will be begging him to stop mugging up to his base (eg saying he won in 2020, demonising migrants, all the ludicrous lies about everything under the sun) and start really trying to appeal to moderate undecideds. If he can do that he’ll be back in the game. I don’t think he can but you never know.
Harris: She’s a woman. The first female president would be a huge deal but there’s a reason her campaign isn’t highlighting it. Misogyny (eg strong man equals bossy woman) is a powerful force in society. She has to overcome that. I’m hoping the drag is outweighed by factors the other way (people wanting a woman as president), or if it isn’t that the impact is already in the polls.
Is that +4 from its earlier survey or is it just showing the gap*?
(*I hate how US pollsters do this – I mean we can subtract 46 from 50 FFS...)
It's the gap. And yes it is infuriating. The reason they do it is because of roundings. For instance it could be Harris 50.4, Trump 45.6 which would be shown as
🔵 Harris 50% (+5) 🔴 Trump 46%
Or Harris 49.6, Trump 46.4 which would be
🔵 Harris 50% (+3) 🔴 Trump 46%
🔵 Harris 50% (+4) 🔴 Trump 46%
is the case in 70% of 50/46 polls if the individual scores are calculated to 1 dp, rising to 75.5% of results for the individual scores displayed as is but truly calculated to 2 dp.
What remains deeply depressing is that 46% of any population - in this case voters in Pennsylvania - support someone as revolting and amoral as Donald Trump.
It is. Although I predict a clear Harris win I am still worried about a couple of things - the first to do with Trump and the second with her.
Trump: As his prospects decline his advisors will be begging him to stop mugging up to his base (eg saying he won in 2020, demonising migrants, all the ludicrous lies about everything under the sun) and start really trying to appeal to moderate undecideds. If he can do that he’ll be back in the game. I don’t think he can but you never know.
Harris: She’s a woman. The first female president would be a huge deal but there’s a reason her campaign isn’t highlighting it. Misogyny (eg strong man equals bossy woman) is a powerful force in society. She has to overcome that. I’m hoping the drag is outweighed by factors the other way (people wanting a woman as president), or if it isn’t that the impact is already in the polls.
I hadn't really clocked that fact (potentially first woman US president). I guess, given we've had a few female PMs here, including relatively recently, it's not something we think about so much. Or am I alone in this?
Obama was more obviously a big deal, maybe because at that point we had not, within living memory, had an ethnic minority PM here.
Maybe it's also that, in the West we've seen several women leaders before, but not many from minority ethnic groups.
Footballer in court after £600,000 of cannabis seized at UK airport
It comes after officers from the National Crime Agency (NCA) discovered 60kg of cannabis with an estimated value of £600,000 in suitcases arriving at Stansted Airport from Bangkok...She said that they were travelling business class into the UK from Bangkok via Dubai.
Footballer in court after £600,000 of cannabis seized at UK airport
It comes after officers from the National Crime Agency (NCA) discovered 60kg of cannabis with an estimated value of £600,000 in suitcases arriving at Stansted Airport from Bangkok...She said that they were travelling business class into the UK from Bangkok via Dubai.
Footballer in court after £600,000 of cannabis seized at UK airport
It comes after officers from the National Crime Agency (NCA) discovered 60kg of cannabis with an estimated value of £600,000 in suitcases arriving at Stansted Airport from Bangkok...She said that they were travelling business class into the UK from Bangkok via Dubai.
Is that +4 from its earlier survey or is it just showing the gap*?
(*I hate how US pollsters do this – I mean we can subtract 46 from 50 FFS...)
It's the gap. And yes it is infuriating. The reason they do it is because of roundings. For instance it could be Harris 50.4, Trump 45.6 which would be shown as
🔵 Harris 50% (+5) 🔴 Trump 46%
Or Harris 49.6, Trump 46.4 which would be
🔵 Harris 50% (+3) 🔴 Trump 46%
🔵 Harris 50% (+4) 🔴 Trump 46%
is the case in 70% of 50/46 polls if the individual scores are calculated to 1 dp, rising to 75.5% of results for the individual scores displayed as is but truly calculated to 2 dp.
Which is mad in itself as the DPs are the epitome of false precision. One can only conclude that the Americans need maths lessons, which is odd given the suite of great mathematicians they have produced over the years!
Footballer in court after £600,000 of cannabis seized at UK airport
It comes after officers from the National Crime Agency (NCA) discovered 60kg of cannabis with an estimated value of £600,000 in suitcases arriving at Stansted Airport from Bangkok...She said that they were travelling business class into the UK from Bangkok via Dubai.
Footballer in court after £600,000 of cannabis seized at UK airport
It comes after officers from the National Crime Agency (NCA) discovered 60kg of cannabis with an estimated value of £600,000 in suitcases arriving at Stansted Airport from Bangkok...She said that they were travelling business class into the UK from Bangkok via Dubai.
Comments
Of course the Azeris are loving it. “Armenian terrorists moaning because Lammy tells truth about Karabakh”. The visceral, deep seated hatred between those two tiny countries has to be seen to be believed.
"Only 30% of the population own a home and have a mortgage".
Wait.
So are we including children in there?
The govt has an air of ineptitude at the moment. They need to really get a grip on things.
Continuity Sunak at the moment.
For the first few weeks it felt like "hit the ground running" government, one i'm not sympathetic to or voted for, but it did at least appear to be the return of proper government.
But, since then it has just turned into a mess. This is mid term blues and we are eighty days in. A friend messaged me this morning to say that a painted bedsheet was hanging from a road bridge that just said "twatter Kier". Eighty days in.. I get the feeling its going to be like that documentary Supersize Me.
I know they all did really well after the pandemic, when used cars were selling for more than new cars, but that situation has now reversed sharply and with added interest rates.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd6q0j8pdj4o.amp
🔵 Harris 50% (+5)
🔴 Trump 46%
Or Harris 49.6, Trump 46.4 which would be
🔵 Harris 50% (+3)
🔴 Trump 46%
🔵 Harris 50% (+4)
🔴 Trump 46%
is the case in 70% of 50/46 polls if the individual scores are calculated to 1 dp, rising to 75.5% of results for the individual scores displayed as is but truly calculated to 2 dp.
Check this link from August, and it appears to be 49/46
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/10/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html
46% does seem to be a fairly regularly occurring number for Trump in the rustbelt.
True, it wasn't all his fault but the time has gone when he deserved goodwill or fair play.
50 minutes. Interesting in what is happening with the new Government, and how he sees things can happen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPgi8_rHD9E
For geeks, there's some stuff about side road Zebra-crossings, as we see in Paris, and how here hardly any Councils would do any on-road trials because they were scared off in the absence of any data from trials proving that it was safe to do a trial.
A conspiracy theorist would wonder if Erdogan’s behind it in some way or this is a way of trying to keep Turkey onside vs Russia.
I said theme, rather than entire manifesto.
The point is that every media pundit has been trying to corral Harris on policy - something they don't appear to give a hoot about for Trump - and she has realised that on its own won't win the election.
Of course the Democrats are sounder on the economy - the GOP just defeated their own funding bill in Congress, threatening another shutdown - but talking about that alone won't win the election.
You're effectively complaining about Harris working out why Trump has been winning, and beating him at his own game.
Hear me out. He became Labour leader in April 2020, just in time for Covid. He did a reasonable job of trying to rid the party of the Corbynite persuasion (which he, of course, was a cabinet member of...), but Boris was supreme.
For a while.
SKS did not have to do much to become PM; first Johnson, and then the Conservative Party, made a series of unforced, relatively trivial errors, and SKS sat back and let them self-destruct.
I think this is seen in the GE result, which gave Labour a whopping majority on a small percentage, but had none of the excitement that Blair's win in 1997 had. The people are not keen for SKS or Labour; they're just fed up with the Tories.
And now we have SKS and Labour making a series of unforced, relatively trivial errors.
All these errorss were avoidable: in some cases, they point to a greed in SKS that sets him widely apart from the public. The 'son of a toolmaker' shit won't last long when he and his wife get bungs of free clothes.
Perhaps the delayed budget is a deliberate ploy. Truss was tolerated till her budget then BOOM, the delay gives him time to establish himself? The problem being he is not filling the time or the news cycles and there's nothing to do but make fun of him.
Occasionally it means movement from the last poll.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp95n2z9370o
https://order-order.com/2024/09/19/peston-fooled-by-his-own-scoop/
Serious how does he keep his job, he is a serial incompetent.
Of course the change from previous would be far more useful
Time will tell, but I don't feel too inclined to argue at the moment. Turning around Labour did require a certain ruthlessness though, which he did show. Being PM requires more than that, though - ideas, too.
House GOP torpedoes Speaker Johnson’s funding bill
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4887533-mike-johnson-funding-bill-fails-house/
I'm not sure who these "swathes of useless people are" or where they are in the "public sector". The Local Government sector has lost a million jobs since 2012 and there are actually only about half a million civil servants as defined by those working in Government Departments.
There's the NHS, the armed forces and some other areas but this is another reply which is long on generalities and short on specifics. I think there are perceptions about how the public sector operates which are just inaccurate and lead to claims of "swathes of useless people" which don't really exist or stand up to any form of scrutiny.
The other great danger is the people get stuck in the system and give up.
It comes after officers from the National Crime Agency (NCA) discovered 60kg of cannabis with an estimated value of £600,000 in suitcases arriving at Stansted Airport from Bangkok...She said that they were travelling business class into the UK from Bangkok via Dubai.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce81e2zq0jjo
Somebody isn't very bright.
How the 3rd-party insurance makes any money charging £35 a year and then paying out £600 for me, I don't know. I mean, I know, but I'm surprised how cheap it is.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4884800-mcconnell-government-shutdown-election/
Emerson have Trump edging Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Harris edging Michigan, and North Carolina. Nevada is a tie.
Trump would win by 274 to 264.
The one card that works every time? Often my last hope? Amex
NEW THREAD
By all appearances, B.A.C. Consulting was a Hungary-based company that was under contract to produce the devices on behalf of a Taiwanese company, Gold Apollo. In fact, it was part of an Israeli front, according to three intelligence officers briefed on the operation. They said at least two other shell companies were created as well to mask the real identities of the people creating the pagers: Israeli intelligence officers.
B.A.C. did take on ordinary clients, for which it produced a range of ordinary pagers. But the only client that really mattered was Hezbollah, and its pagers were far from ordinary. Produced separately, they contained batteries laced with the explosive PETN, according to the three intelligence officers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/world/middleeast/israel-exploding-pagers-hezbollah.html
He should count himself very lucky that he wasn’t intercepted en route, and now find himself sitting in a real prison facing life meaning life.
SKS
Popularity 22%
Disliked by 60%
Net Popularity (-38%)
Were all BJO now
FreeGearKeir fans please explain
There was a really good NPR article on the changes, and it showed that - over the course of 3/4 electoral cycles - Arizona had gone from about 7 pecentage points fewer graduates than the national average to 3 above. Almost all the voting changes in the State can be explained by that, given how much Democrats outperform with college educated Americans.
The VP debate in 2 weeks, while probably inconsequential, has an approximately zero percent chance of being won by Vance.
Trump: As his prospects decline his advisors will be begging him to stop mugging up to his base (eg saying he won in 2020, demonising migrants, all the ludicrous lies about everything under the sun) and start really trying to appeal to moderate undecideds. If he can do that he’ll be back in the game. I don’t think he can but you never know.
Harris: She’s a woman. The first female president would be a huge deal but there’s a reason her campaign isn’t highlighting it. Misogyny (eg strong man equals bossy woman) is a powerful force in society. She has to overcome that. I’m hoping the drag is outweighed by factors the other way (people wanting a woman as president), or if it isn’t that the impact is already in the polls.
Obama was more obviously a big deal, maybe because at that point we had not, within living memory, had an ethnic minority PM here.
Maybe it's also that, in the West we've seen several women leaders before, but not many from minority ethnic groups.