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  • Harris 303, Trump 235. Harris wins NV, NE-02, PA and NC, loses GA. PA, NC and GA are all won by tiny margins. Senate D 49-51 R.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,414

    Sky

    Guardian in talks to sell the Observer

    Another one for Paul Marshall?

    Hope not.
    Unless he's happy for it to have the same soft-centre/left position that it has now.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,569

    Sky

    Guardian in talks to sell the Observer

    Interesting. I assumed they had merged newsrooms long ago.
  • Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688

    Sky

    Guardian in talks to sell the Observer

    Another one for Paul Marshall?

    Hope not.
    Unless he's happy for it to have the same soft-centre/left position that it has now.
    Needs a good clear out of columnists in my opinion. Rawnsley must stay and I like Hutton (even though nobody else on this site seems to) but after that...

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,032
    kamski said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris 349 - Trump 189

    Yes. And let's hope the EC spreads come out before that becomes a more common view. I want to buy @ 280.
    I'm disconcerted by your new profile pic. The old tin o' beans was a great visual handle to easily see who was speaking. One of the best. Can I request its return after the election?
    Yes, deal. This is just until Nov 6th. I feel so strongly about this election that I had to do something. I thought about flying over there to help out but in the end decided the most effective thing I could do was change my PB profile pic.
    This was posted entirely without irony, I assume?
    Well my posts are widely read and the audience are largely influential people - so having a picture of Kamala Harris alongside each one might (subliminally) nudge opinion in the right direction.
    I think you need to get your head out of your own arse.

    My profile picture is cuts of beef from a cow, and I'm under no illusions it's convincing the masses to eat beef.
    So it is! I never really looked at it, and the thumbnail is very small and truncated (well that's my excuse) I always assumed it was some weird map of the US
    Nearly 40% of the entire US is used for grazing, so you weren't all that wrong.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,032

    Harris 303, Trump 235. Harris wins NV, NE-02, PA and NC, loses GA. PA, NC and GA are all won by tiny margins. Senate D 49-51 R.

    Does everyone think Cruz will win again ?
  • Sky

    Guardian in talks to sell the Observer

    Another one for Paul Marshall?

    Tortoise Media.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris 349 - Trump 189

    Yes. And let's hope the EC spreads come out before that becomes a more common view. I want to buy @ 280.
    I'm disconcerted by your new profile pic. The old tin o' beans was a great visual handle to easily see who was speaking. One of the best. Can I request its return after the election?
    Yes, deal. This is just until Nov 6th. I feel so strongly about this election that I had to do something. I thought about flying over there to help out but in the end decided the most effective thing I could do was change my PB profile pic.
    This was posted entirely without irony, I assume?
    Well my posts are widely read and the audience are largely influential people - so having a picture of Kamala Harris alongside each one might (subliminally) nudge opinion in the right direction.
    I think you need to get your head out of your own arse.

    My profile picture is cuts of beef from a cow, and I'm under no illusions it's convincing the masses to eat beef.
    Ooh, that reminds me. Need to pass by Waitrose on the way home and pick up a kilo of steak for dinner.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Sky

    Guardian in talks to sell the Observer

    Another one for Paul Marshall?

    More opportunities for Johnson and SeanT. What's not to like?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,402
    I think Harris will win and edge the swing states where it matters.

    As far as I'll go.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,201
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris 349 - Trump 189

    Yes. And let's hope the EC spreads come out before that becomes a more common view. I want to buy @ 280.
    I'm disconcerted by your new profile pic. The old tin o' beans was a great visual handle to easily see who was speaking. One of the best. Can I request its return after the election?
    Yes, deal. This is just until Nov 6th. I feel so strongly about this election that I had to do something. I thought about flying over there to help out but in the end decided the most effective thing I could do was change my PB profile pic.
    This was posted entirely without irony, I assume?
    Well my posts are widely read and the audience are largely influential people - so having a picture of Kamala Harris alongside each one might (subliminally) nudge opinion in the right direction.
    I think you need to get your head out of your own arse.

    My profile picture is cuts of beef from a cow, and I'm under no illusions it's convincing the masses to eat beef.
    Ooh, that reminds me. Need to pass by Waitrose on the way home and pick up a kilo of steak for dinner.
    {Bulgarian mode ON}

    Ok, that’s the starter.

    What are you planning on for the main course?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    What is this levy they are talking about - it's simply capital gains tax at a slightly higher rate than other investment opportunities.

    Being blunt I would be far more concerned about my other investments
  • Sky

    Guardian in talks to sell the Observer

    Another one for Paul Marshall?

    Tortoise Media.
    https://news.sky.com/story/guardian-media-group-in-talks-to-sell-the-observer-to-tortoise-media-13216602
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,638
    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,201
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    In many places, you can’t get a mortgage unless you are very well off. So trapped in the rental sector.

    Most such properties will be bought by commercial landlords, I reckon.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362
    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    You couldn't sell now in time to escape the tax increase...
  • carnforth said:

    Minor gossip from the barber's shop: Apparently the music went dead suddenly at 1:30am at an Albanian beach music festival recently. The reason? The prime minister was hosting Tony Blair at his beach house nearby, and they wanted to get some sleep.

    I yield to no man in my admiration for Albanian seaside resorts (even though I've never been near one) but I always imagined the Blairs were above that sort of thing.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019

    Sky

    Guardian in talks to sell the Observer

    Must be a bad year for both the Guardian and the Scott Trust.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,167
    edited September 17
    Reading the sentencing remarks on THAT case I can now see the value of checking into the priory for a grand a night or whatever it costs if you're up in court for noncery. Some of the sentencing remarks by the judge I find literally incredible.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    Many of the people currently renting them aren’t in a position to buy though, that’s the problem.

    In the medium term then yes, fewer renters and more OOs, but not until either interest rates or prices come down by about half from where they are now.

    In the short term you simply have more renters chasing fewer properties.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Has @Casino_Royale been starved of sleep again (in which, my sympathies) or has he somehow lost all sense of irony and humour?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,583

    Trump wins 285 to 253.

    He scrapes Penn by the tiny margin and there are days of court cases but he holds it.

    He wins NC and MI. Again by small numbers.

    But its enough and America and the West are f*cked.

    I'm depressed writing this prediction and hope I am very very wrong but I think the polling is underplaying his 'shy trump voters' who refuse to deal with polling.

    Counterfactual: If Hillary Clinton had become President in 2016 instead of Trump, what would have happened in Ukraine?
    Clinton was a hawk on Russia. I think it's quite possible she would have provided more support for the strengthening of Ukraine's armed forces, earlier. Hostilities might have begun in 2022 when Ukrainian armed forces launched a successful operation to liberate the occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, Russia ultimately declining to go to war to defend its puppet states due to the strong deterrence posture of the US.

    Crimea would remain an occupied anomaly.
    Clinton being a hawk on Russia is precisely why Putin might have invaded earlier if she were president.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,118
    edited September 17

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    So "Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out" becomes "LANDLORDS FACE etc..".

    Speculators speculating.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris 349 - Trump 189

    Yes. And let's hope the EC spreads come out before that becomes a more common view. I want to buy @ 280.
    I'm disconcerted by your new profile pic. The old tin o' beans was a great visual handle to easily see who was speaking. One of the best. Can I request its return after the election?
    Yes, deal. This is just until Nov 6th. I feel so strongly about this election that I had to do something. I thought about flying over there to help out but in the end decided the most effective thing I could do was change my PB profile pic.
    This was posted entirely without irony, I assume?
    Well my posts are widely read and the audience are largely influential people - so having a picture of Kamala Harris alongside each one might (subliminally) nudge opinion in the right direction.
    I think you need to get your head out of your own arse.

    My profile picture is cuts of beef from a cow, and I'm under no illusions it's convincing the masses to eat beef.
    That's where you are very wrong. Why do you think I dined at Beefeater in Darlington Moreton Park last night?

    I had the 8oz Sirloin, "cooked just the way you like it", thanks to your subliminal influence.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    edited September 17
    On topic: I have no idea what the result will be (yet) and it seems way too early to forecast, so I'm staying out of both this prediction contest and the market for now. I do think the (likely) Fed Cut this week could change the narrative somewhat on the economy (such that there is an narrative in that regard: I saw a poll earlier this week that actually had Kamala ahead on the economy so it's hard to really know what to think).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    Pulpstar said:

    Reading the sentencing remarks on THAT case I can now see the value of checking into the priory for a grand a night or whatever it costs if you're up in court for noncery. Some of the sentencing remarks by the judge I find literally incredible.

    There was a bit on R5 this morning on this. Edwards defence had at least two eminent psychiatrists reports on his mental state in mitigation. Now if you want you can argue that these eminent people are wrong (possible), been decieved (maybe) or lying for money, but the evidence before the court is what the court has to go on.

    I think money talks, but its crucial to spend the cash in the right place (as you say - the Priory is a good place to start).

    Some scrote on a housing estate would surely be behind bars right now.
  • MattW said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    So "Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out" becomes "LANDLORDS FACE etc..".

    Speculators speculating.
    The difference is this is realistic and even likely
  • Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    In many places, you can’t get a mortgage unless you are very well off. So trapped in the rental sector.

    Most such properties will be bought by commercial landlords, I reckon.
    And you see those buggers are relentless.

    They’d rather have their commercial properties lay empty than drop their rents.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983

    carnforth said:

    Minor gossip from the barber's shop: Apparently the music went dead suddenly at 1:30am at an Albanian beach music festival recently. The reason? The prime minister was hosting Tony Blair at his beach house nearby, and they wanted to get some sleep.

    I yield to no man in my admiration for Albanian seaside resorts (even though I've never been near one) but I always imagined the Blairs were above that sort of thing.
    I like to think that as the music fell silent, replaced by the distant sounds of waves lapping on the shore and crickets chirping in the dunes, one reveller turned to their neighbour and whispered "Is Tonty Blair behind this?"
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 495

    Sky

    Guardian in talks to sell the Observer

    Another one for Paul Marshall?

    Tortoise Media.
    https://news.sky.com/story/guardian-media-group-in-talks-to-sell-the-observer-to-tortoise-media-13216602
    Slightly amazed* that the Guardian and Observer are stii run as separate entities but with the same website. Still selling off a brand is a new direction from their standard procedure of dispensing with their decent journalists / creatives in favour of nepotism, clickbait and sub-Cosmo/Marie Claire / Red porn for the over-60s. Thankfully, on the rare occasion I collect a free copy from Waitrose, the kids have shown no interest in reading the supplements.
    *On reflection I'm not, following the Berliner paper size fiasco.

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,211
    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris 349 - Trump 189

    Yes. And let's hope the EC spreads come out before that becomes a more common view. I want to buy @ 280.
    I'm disconcerted by your new profile pic. The old tin o' beans was a great visual handle to easily see who was speaking. One of the best. Can I request its return after the election?
    Yes, deal. This is just until Nov 6th. I feel so strongly about this election that I had to do something. I thought about flying over there to help out but in the end decided the most effective thing I could do was change my PB profile pic.
    This was posted entirely without irony, I assume?
    Well my posts are widely read and the audience are largely influential people - so having a picture of Kamala Harris alongside each one might (subliminally) nudge opinion in the right direction.
    I think you need to get your head out of your own arse.

    My profile picture is cuts of beef from a cow, and I'm under no illusions it's convincing the masses to eat beef.
    That's where you are very wrong. Why do you think I dined at Beefeater in Darlington Moreton Park last night?

    I had the 8oz Sirloin, "cooked just the way you like it", thanks to your subliminal influence.
    Steak is overrated. I'd rather have a burger.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,721
    edited September 17

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris 349 - Trump 189

    Yes. And let's hope the EC spreads come out before that becomes a more common view. I want to buy @ 280.
    I'm disconcerted by your new profile pic. The old tin o' beans was a great visual handle to easily see who was speaking. One of the best. Can I request its return after the election?
    Yes, deal. This is just until Nov 6th. I feel so strongly about this election that I had to do something. I thought about flying over there to help out but in the end decided the most effective thing I could do was change my PB profile pic.
    This was posted entirely without irony, I assume?
    Well my posts are widely read and the audience are largely influential people - so having a picture of Kamala Harris alongside each one might (subliminally) nudge opinion in the right direction.
    I think you need to get your head out of your own arse.

    My profile picture is cuts of beef from a cow, and I'm under no illusions it's convincing the masses to eat beef.
    Not having clicked through before, I thought (from the cropped part visible without clicking through to your profile) it was some kind of highly stylised map of the US! The left dangly bit being into Mexico, maybe and the right, cropped out, dangly bit being Florida.

    ETA: Nice to know it wasn't just me, Kamski!

    ETA2: And Kinabalu seems to have some pic of a lady called Forthe? :wink:
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,638
    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    Many of the people currently renting them aren’t in a position to buy though, that’s the problem.

    In the medium term then yes, fewer renters and more OOs, but not until either interest rates or prices come down by about half from where they are now.

    In the short term you simply have more renters chasing fewer properties.
    I'm not convinced that landlords are going to immediately sell half their properties because CGT is going to go up a bit. It will be a slow realignment, perhaps towards what the housing tenure proportions were back in 2010.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,201

    Pulpstar said:

    Reading the sentencing remarks on THAT case I can now see the value of checking into the priory for a grand a night or whatever it costs if you're up in court for noncery. Some of the sentencing remarks by the judge I find literally incredible.

    There was a bit on R5 this morning on this. Edwards defence had at least two eminent psychiatrists reports on his mental state in mitigation. Now if you want you can argue that these eminent people are wrong (possible), been decieved (maybe) or lying for money, but the evidence before the court is what the court has to go on.

    I think money talks, but its crucial to spend the cash in the right place (as you say - the Priory is a good place to start).

    Some scrote on a housing estate would surely be behind bars right now.
    The simple, sane (ha), reliable method is to go shopping for your expert witnesses.

    Someone who reliably declares the criminal to be nuts, from their own beliefs and philosophical position.

    No lying, fiddling, bribing etc required.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,211

    Has @Casino_Royale been starved of sleep again (in which, my sympathies) or has he somehow lost all sense of irony and humour?

    I think there's one cravat-wearing poster who winds him up a touch.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098
    carnforth said:

    Minor gossip from the barber's shop: Apparently the music went dead suddenly at 1:30am at an Albanian beach music festival recently. The reason? The prime minister was hosting Tony Blair at his beach house nearby, and they wanted to get some sleep.

    He gets around, Tony does.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    In many places, you can’t get a mortgage unless you are very well off. So trapped in the rental sector.

    Most such properties will be bought by commercial landlords, I reckon.
    And you see those buggers are relentless.

    They’d rather have their commercial properties lay empty than drop their rents.
    Drop the rent and a loss is crystallised. Until then the pension fund that is the eventual owner can keep their fantasy valuation in place...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris 349 - Trump 189

    Yes. And let's hope the EC spreads come out before that becomes a more common view. I want to buy @ 280.
    I'm disconcerted by your new profile pic. The old tin o' beans was a great visual handle to easily see who was speaking. One of the best. Can I request its return after the election?
    Yes, deal. This is just until Nov 6th. I feel so strongly about this election that I had to do something. I thought about flying over there to help out but in the end decided the most effective thing I could do was change my PB profile pic.
    This was posted entirely without irony, I assume?
    Well my posts are widely read and the audience are largely influential people - so having a picture of Kamala Harris alongside each one might (subliminally) nudge opinion in the right direction.
    I think you need to get your head out of your own arse.

    My profile picture is cuts of beef from a cow, and I'm under no illusions it's convincing the masses to eat beef.
    Ooh, that reminds me. Need to pass by Waitrose on the way home and pick up a kilo of steak for dinner.
    {Bulgarian mode ON}

    Ok, that’s the starter.

    What are you planning on for the main course?
    Okay, let me rephrase slightly.

    The 400g fillet is the starter, and the 600g ribeye the main.

    I’ll also pick up a bowl of salad, because Mrs Sandpit needs dinner as well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,607
    edited September 17
    kinabalu said:

    carnforth said:

    Minor gossip from the barber's shop: Apparently the music went dead suddenly at 1:30am at an Albanian beach music festival recently. The reason? The prime minister was hosting Tony Blair at his beach house nearby, and they wanted to get some sleep.

    He gets around, Tony does.
    He’s a legend in Albania/Kosovo for his intervention in 1999.

    Norman Wisdom was a legend in Albania but for different reasons
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,580

    Sky

    Guardian in talks to sell the Observer

    Another one for Paul Marshall?

    Hope not.
    Unless he's happy for it to have the same soft-centre/left position that it has now.
    Needs a good clear out of columnists in my opinion. Rawnsley must stay and I like Hutton (even though nobody else on this site seems to) but after that...

    I like Hutton. He spoke at the LD conference at a well attended fringe meeting. Excellent and influential.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    My avatar has long been a 12" Strictly Rhythm vinyl of 1990s vintage.

    I am convinced that over the years I have slowly but surely turned on every PBer to the joys of classic house.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,350

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris 349 - Trump 189

    Yes. And let's hope the EC spreads come out before that becomes a more common view. I want to buy @ 280.
    I'm disconcerted by your new profile pic. The old tin o' beans was a great visual handle to easily see who was speaking. One of the best. Can I request its return after the election?
    Yes, deal. This is just until Nov 6th. I feel so strongly about this election that I had to do something. I thought about flying over there to help out but in the end decided the most effective thing I could do was change my PB profile pic.
    This was posted entirely without irony, I assume?
    Well my posts are widely read and the audience are largely influential people - so having a picture of Kamala Harris alongside each one might (subliminally) nudge opinion in the right direction.
    I think you need to get your head out of your own arse.

    My profile picture is cuts of beef from a cow, and I'm under no illusions it's convincing the masses to eat beef.
    It is colourful and distinctive. One of the better avatars.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,580
    edited September 17
    I'm currently in another LD fringe meeting eating a free lunch. "Peers for gambling reform". I don't know what it's about. Gambling I assume.
    The lunch is good.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576
    Barnesian said:

    I'm currently in another LD fringe meeting eating a free lunch. "Peers for gambling reform". I don't know what it's about. Gambling I assume.

    Tell them to stop bookies profiling their customers and discriminating against winners.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983

    kinabalu said:

    carnforth said:

    Minor gossip from the barber's shop: Apparently the music went dead suddenly at 1:30am at an Albanian beach music festival recently. The reason? The prime minister was hosting Tony Blair at his beach house nearby, and they wanted to get some sleep.

    He gets around, Tony does.
    He’s a legend in Albania/Kosovo for his intervention in 1999.

    Norman Wisdom was a legend in Albania but for different reasons
    The whole of the Balkans seems to have a fondness for classic British comedy. It was a staple of programming in the 70s and 80s in Yugoslavia. My Serbian colleague knows all the old Only Fools & Horses episodes and most of the quotes by heart from her childhood.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    Barnesian said:

    I'm currently in another LD fringe meeting eating a free lunch. "Peers for gambling reform". I don't know what it's about. Gambling I assume.

    Peers for gambling ON Reform perhaps. A few of them have a cheeky fiver on Farage as next PM.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,688

    Sky

    Guardian in talks to sell the Observer

    Another one for Paul Marshall?

    Tortoise Media.
    https://news.sky.com/story/guardian-media-group-in-talks-to-sell-the-observer-to-tortoise-media-13216602
    Thanks for link.

    "A deal to sell The Observer would reshape Britain's declining Sunday newspaper market, and will raise questions about whether The Guardian plans to extend its six day a week print operation to Sundays."

    Why would you buy the Observer if you knew the Guardian were planning a 7th day operation.

    No way these two would be sustainable if both publish.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    carnforth said:

    Minor gossip from the barber's shop: Apparently the music went dead suddenly at 1:30am at an Albanian beach music festival recently. The reason? The prime minister was hosting Tony Blair at his beach house nearby, and they wanted to get some sleep.

    He gets around, Tony does.
    He’s a legend in Albania/Kosovo for his intervention in 1999.

    Norman Wisdom was a legend in Albania but for different reasons
    The whole of the Balkans seems to have a fondness for classic British comedy. It was a staple of programming in the 70s and 80s in Yugoslavia. My Serbian colleague knows all the old Only Fools & Horses episodes and most of the quotes by heart from her childhood.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWviovKCuvQ

    Genius.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,118
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    The occupancy mix changes, despite @BartholomewRoberts' claims.

    There have 500k+ HMOs in England (2021 census numbers where people happened to be at the time), and unlawful (ie in your words 'impromptu') and deliberately illegal ones on top, which each have multiple households in them.

    Of the 500k counted, ~100k are large HMOs (6 people or more) and the rest are small HMOs ("3 or more people in 2 or more households").

    When the small HMOs go into the owner occupied sector, they overwhelmingly become single household properties.

    That creates upward pressure on rents as there is demand for extra households to be occupied within a proportionally reduced stock of dwellings.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    In many places, you can’t get a mortgage unless you are very well off. So trapped in the rental sector.

    Most such properties will be bought by commercial landlords, I reckon.
    Commercial landlords are the worst of the lot. They don’t care about a void year if it means not dropping the rent, and are happy to form what’s basically a cartel in many areas to keep rents high. Look at your average town High St if you want to see how that plays out.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541
    Looks like Harris is slight favourite atm.

    "Who Is Favored To Win Pennsylvania's 19 Electoral Votes?

    Harris wins 57 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
    Trump wins 43 times out of 100."

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,638
    edited September 17
    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    The occupancy mix changes, despite @BartholomewRoberts' claims.

    There have 500k+ HMOs in England (2021 census numbers where people happened to be at the time), and unlawful (ie in your words 'impromptu') and deliberately illegal ones on top, which each have multiple households in them.

    Of the 500k counted, ~100k are large HMOs (6 people or more) and the rest are small HMOs ("3 or more people in 2 or more households").

    When the small HMOs go into the owner occupied sector, they overwhelmingly become single household properties.

    That creates upward pressure on rents as there is demand for extra households to be occupied within a proportionally reduced stock of dwellings.
    It's a fair point, but I think you would want to weight it by the periods rental properties are empty between tenancies and do some sort of time series analysis, particularly as couples fill flats with kids.

    Must be a drop in the ocean compared with general under-occupancy of housing for owner occupiers though. Abolish stamp duty to encourage downsizing etc etc
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098
    edited September 17

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris 349 - Trump 189

    Yes. And let's hope the EC spreads come out before that becomes a more common view. I want to buy @ 280.
    I'm disconcerted by your new profile pic. The old tin o' beans was a great visual handle to easily see who was speaking. One of the best. Can I request its return after the election?
    Yes, deal. This is just until Nov 6th. I feel so strongly about this election that I had to do something. I thought about flying over there to help out but in the end decided the most effective thing I could do was change my PB profile pic.
    This was posted entirely without irony, I assume?
    Well my posts are widely read and the audience are largely influential people - so having a picture of Kamala Harris alongside each one might (subliminally) nudge opinion in the right direction.
    I think you need to get your head out of your own arse.

    My profile picture is cuts of beef from a cow, and I'm under no illusions it's convincing the masses to eat beef.
    It's a good pic too. And it might be having a tiny effect right on the very outer edge of the margins. That is all an ordinary person can do. It's miles better than nothing.

    Point is, you're leveraging your profile pic and I'm now taking a leaf, just in a different cause. You're promoting burgers and steaks, I'm trying to save the American dream.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,662
    edited September 17
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eabhal said:

    Roger said:


    Who could have seen this coming ?

    Junior Doctors to strike for even more pay

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/17/doctors-threaten-strikes-despite-pay-deal-politics-latest/

    I could. The Telegraph always makes stuff up.
    I couldn't work out whether it was the Telegraph going off on one or Alanbrooke and it turned out to be a mixture of the two.

    Nothing to see .....;move on
    Oh Roger even the BBC said the Junior Doctore will be back for more.

    Regrettably there will be a lot more news on Labour incompetence over the next 5 years and you cant keep blaming the messengers.

    Ed Miliband - theres a fk up on two legs who hasnt a clue what he is doing.
    Not sure about the Ed Miliband thing - offshore wind development has 82% approval rating, including 82% among Tories and 73% among Reform voters.

    The more they get Miliband on the news talking about the successful auctions, the better.
    Offshore wind is not in anyone's back yard, though.

    Onshore wind, on the other hand, I think the previous government was right to be cautious about.

    Latest plan in this part of the world is for a large area of the Pennines north of Calderdale to be turned into a monster wind development. It is the nearest bit of open land for quite a large population and part of a peat restoration project. Not surprisingly it is somewhat controversial but if Ed decides that we must suffer this for the net zero project, it will no doubt get built.

    https://calderdalewind.co.uk/site/

    As if the peat restoration couldn't take place _without_ building lots of roads and 200m turbines...
    If the turbine project doesn't take place then the land continues I assume to be used as a grouse shoot - which in terms of biodiversity and carbon is pretty much bottom of the pile for that sort of peat land I think. I'd be inclined to be in favour of the project though I don't know too much about it other than the blurb on the site.
    "£2.5m annual Community Benefit Fund paid to Calderdale Council to help relieve fuel poverty for 30 years.." will possible swing it.

    That works out at around £8 per annum, per kW of capacity.
    Yes, it might. I know the council people involved in the peat restoration though, and they are definitely not in favour.

    They'll probably get ignored though.

    Heavily managed grouse moors in these parts will eventually be killed off, I think, without having to spoil them with anything else. There are sites not far from Calderdale that have had the sheep and shooters thrown off and the number of species that have turned up is amazing. The old fashioned shoots (I could mention a couple of estates here, but probably best not) that still exist and do illegal or antisocial things are being tolerated less and less, particularly when their actions lead to flooding and peat loss. A bit more money for land restoration is all it would take for them to go.

    With such a large surrounding population and a seemingly greater demand for wild(ish) spaces, it would do a lot of good for the area to keep it open, restore the bog where possible, and not turn it into a power station.

    I want to see 500m turbines on Dogger Bank instead.

    The arrays visible from the East Yorkshire coast are already impressive.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,588
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris 349 - Trump 189

    Yes. And let's hope the EC spreads come out before that becomes a more common view. I want to buy @ 280.
    I'm disconcerted by your new profile pic. The old tin o' beans was a great visual handle to easily see who was speaking. One of the best. Can I request its return after the election?
    Yes, deal. This is just until Nov 6th. I feel so strongly about this election that I had to do something. I thought about flying over there to help out but in the end decided the most effective thing I could do was change my PB profile pic.
    This was posted entirely without irony, I assume?
    Well my posts are widely read and the audience are largely influential people - so having a picture of Kamala Harris alongside each one might (subliminally) nudge opinion in the right direction.
    I think you need to get your head out of your own arse.

    My profile picture is cuts of beef from a cow, and I'm under no illusions it's convincing the masses to eat beef.
    It's a good pic too. And it might be having a tiny effect right on the very outer edge of the margins. That is all an ordinary person can do. It's miles better than nothing.

    Point is, you're leveraging your profile pic and I'm now taking a leaf, just in a different cause. You're promoting burgers and steaks, I'm trying to save the American dream.
    Contact these people and see if there's anything you can do. https://www.democratsabroad.org/uk
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,350
    edited September 17

    Sky

    Guardian in talks to sell the Observer

    Another one for Paul Marshall?

    Tortoise Media.
    https://news.sky.com/story/guardian-media-group-in-talks-to-sell-the-observer-to-tortoise-media-13216602
    Thanks for link.

    "A deal to sell The Observer would reshape Britain's declining Sunday newspaper market, and will raise questions about whether The Guardian plans to extend its six day a week print operation to Sundays."

    Why would you buy the Observer if you knew the Guardian were planning a 7th day operation.

    No way these two would be sustainable if both publish.
    I think it might be more likely a prelude to the Guardian printing fewer then six days a week than seven.

    They haven't allowed their print circulation to be published since 2021, but a decent estimate is that they only sell 60,000 print copies daily. At some point they will stop and switch either to a weekly edition, on Saturday, or go online-only.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,118
    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    In many places, you can’t get a mortgage unless you are very well off. So trapped in the rental sector.

    Most such properties will be bought by commercial landlords, I reckon.
    Commercial landlords are the worst of the lot. They don’t care about a void year if it means not dropping the rent, and are happy to form what’s basically a cartel in many areas to keep rents high. Look at your average town High St if you want to see how that plays out.
    They won't be able to run a similar system easily on housing rental; the penalties are too high.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,201
    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    The occupancy mix changes, despite @BartholomewRoberts' claims.

    There have 500k+ HMOs in England (2021 census numbers where people happened to be at the time), and unlawful (ie in your words 'impromptu') and deliberately illegal ones on top, which each have multiple households in them.

    Of the 500k counted, ~100k are large HMOs (6 people or more) and the rest are small HMOs ("3 or more people in 2 or more households").

    When the small HMOs go into the owner occupied sector, they overwhelmingly become single household properties.

    That creates upward pressure on rents as there is demand for extra households to be occupied within a proportionally reduced stock of dwellings.
    Oh yeah. So very indeed.

    For example, one of the juniors at the bank is getting married. So she and her husband to be have moved out of their “impromptu” HMOs. And bought a two bedroom flat. Which they are selfishly and viciously keeping for themselves alone.

    I’ve absolutely no idea why they might want a spare room. Can anyone help explain?
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815

    Pulpstar said:

    Reading the sentencing remarks on THAT case I can now see the value of checking into the priory for a grand a night or whatever it costs if you're up in court for noncery. Some of the sentencing remarks by the judge I find literally incredible.

    There was a bit on R5 this morning on this. Edwards defence had at least two eminent psychiatrists reports on his mental state in mitigation. Now if you want you can argue that these eminent people are wrong (possible), been decieved (maybe) or lying for money, but the evidence before the court is what the court has to go on.

    I think money talks, but its crucial to spend the cash in the right place (as you say - the Priory is a good place to start).

    Some scrote on a housing estate would surely be behind bars right now.
    Sentencing is none of the prosecution's business in E&W so this sort of thing is unchallenged (unlike psychiatrists reports saying D is unfit to plead or has diminished responsibility, where you get P putting in its own psychiatrist.reports saying Bollox he is sane as the day is long). Also there's nothing I know of to stop you going to multiple psychiatrists and picking the reports most favourable to you. Also also it's not hugely difficult for the subject of the report to work out that saying certain things to the psychiatrist is likely to lead to certain conclusions being reached.

    Conclusion: if you want to look at photos of this sort, it's best to be rich and tell your colleagues you went to Cardiff.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 224
    Nigelb said:

    If polling like this holds up, how does Trump win ?

    Who does a better job representing the interests of:

    Middle class: Harris +13
    Small businesses: Harris +11
    Union workers: Harris +10
    Blue collar workers: Harris +7

    Large corporations: Trump +44
    Wealthy people: Trump +48

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1835517461996659159

    because Trump is seen as more moderate than Harris (belive it or not).
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    The occupancy mix changes, despite @BartholomewRoberts' claims.

    There have 500k+ HMOs in England (2021 census numbers where people happened to be at the time), and unlawful (ie in your words 'impromptu') and deliberately illegal ones on top, which each have multiple households in them.

    Of the 500k counted, ~100k are large HMOs (6 people or more) and the rest are small HMOs ("3 or more people in 2 or more households").

    When the small HMOs go into the owner occupied sector, they overwhelmingly become single household properties.

    That creates upward pressure on rents as there is demand for extra households to be occupied within a proportionally reduced stock of dwellings.
    It's a fair point, but I think you would want to weight it by the periods rental properties are empty between tenancies and do some sort of time series analysis, particularly as couples fill flats with kids.

    Must be a drop in the ocean compared with general under-occupancy of housing for owner occupiers though. Abolish stamp duty to encourage downsizing etc etc
    That will scarcely touch the sides. As a country we have an extremely low under-occupancy and vacancy rate. The market is too tight and has been for decades. The only thing that will change it long term is more new houses.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,118
    edited September 17

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    The occupancy mix changes, despite @BartholomewRoberts' claims.

    There have 500k+ HMOs in England (2021 census numbers where people happened to be at the time), and unlawful (ie in your words 'impromptu') and deliberately illegal ones on top, which each have multiple households in them.

    Of the 500k counted, ~100k are large HMOs (6 people or more) and the rest are small HMOs ("3 or more people in 2 or more households").

    When the small HMOs go into the owner occupied sector, they overwhelmingly become single household properties.

    That creates upward pressure on rents as there is demand for extra households to be occupied within a proportionally reduced stock of dwellings.
    Oh yeah. So very indeed.

    For example, one of the juniors at the bank is getting married. So she and her husband to be have moved out of their “impromptu” HMOs. And bought a two bedroom flat. Which they are selfishly and viciously keeping for themselves alone.

    I’ve absolutely no idea why they might want a spare room. Can anyone help explain?
    I'm not sure what your point is there. It's not really about blaming, or not, individuals.

    If they are in an 'impromptu' (ie unlicensed) HMO in England, then the tenancy agreement is breached, and the tenants have placed the Landlord in breach of his license, and LL is liable for a civil or criminal penalty, which may run into 5 figures.

    Any Council regulating rentals will require the situation to be returned to a lawful status, or the LL risks losing his license to let out property.

    If a couple renting a flat let a friend stay in their spare bedroom for a period of time, they have created an HMO with all the implications outlined, and legal systems to make sure they are addressed, and heavy penalties attached.

    That's just the system heavy system we have created under the 2005 Housing Act, and its implications.

    It is absolutely standard for Councils to try and turn LLs into social policemen, despite them not having the lawful authority to do so, and such terms are often found buried in the small print of Landlord Licences.

    That is one reason why I have a very knowledgeable and professional lettings agent when I need one, because we have to catch a Council pulling unlawful tricks incompetently or deliberately.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,694

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris 349 - Trump 189

    Yes. And let's hope the EC spreads come out before that becomes a more common view. I want to buy @ 280.
    I'm disconcerted by your new profile pic. The old tin o' beans was a great visual handle to easily see who was speaking. One of the best. Can I request its return after the election?
    Yes, deal. This is just until Nov 6th. I feel so strongly about this election that I had to do something. I thought about flying over there to help out but in the end decided the most effective thing I could do was change my PB profile pic.
    This was posted entirely without irony, I assume?
    Well my posts are widely read and the audience are largely influential people - so having a picture of Kamala Harris alongside each one might (subliminally) nudge opinion in the right direction.
    I think you need to get your head out of your own arse.

    My profile picture is cuts of beef from a cow, and I'm under no illusions it's convincing the masses to eat beef.
    Ooh, that reminds me. Need to pass by Waitrose on the way home and pick up a kilo of steak for dinner.
    {Bulgarian mode ON}

    Ok, that’s the starter.

    What are you planning on for the main course?
    istr Sandpit is an immigrant so will be dining on a choice bit of sliced cat
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,638
    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    The occupancy mix changes, despite @BartholomewRoberts' claims.

    There have 500k+ HMOs in England (2021 census numbers where people happened to be at the time), and unlawful (ie in your words 'impromptu') and deliberately illegal ones on top, which each have multiple households in them.

    Of the 500k counted, ~100k are large HMOs (6 people or more) and the rest are small HMOs ("3 or more people in 2 or more households").

    When the small HMOs go into the owner occupied sector, they overwhelmingly become single household properties.

    That creates upward pressure on rents as there is demand for extra households to be occupied within a proportionally reduced stock of dwellings.
    It's a fair point, but I think you would want to weight it by the periods rental properties are empty between tenancies and do some sort of time series analysis, particularly as couples fill flats with kids.

    Must be a drop in the ocean compared with general under-occupancy of housing for owner occupiers though. Abolish stamp duty to encourage downsizing etc etc
    That will scarcely touch the sides. As a country we have an extremely low under-occupancy and vacancy rate. The market is too tight and has been for decades. The only thing that will change it long term is more new houses.
    France has 8 million more homes than we do, and higher rates of over-occupancy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Nunu3 said:

    Nigelb said:

    If polling like this holds up, how does Trump win ?

    Who does a better job representing the interests of:

    Middle class: Harris +13
    Small businesses: Harris +11
    Union workers: Harris +10
    Blue collar workers: Harris +7

    Large corporations: Trump +44
    Wealthy people: Trump +48

    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1835517461996659159

    because Trump is seen as more moderate than Harris (belive it or not).
    Is he?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,201
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    The occupancy mix changes, despite @BartholomewRoberts' claims.

    There have 500k+ HMOs in England (2021 census numbers where people happened to be at the time), and unlawful (ie in your words 'impromptu') and deliberately illegal ones on top, which each have multiple households in them.

    Of the 500k counted, ~100k are large HMOs (6 people or more) and the rest are small HMOs ("3 or more people in 2 or more households").

    When the small HMOs go into the owner occupied sector, they overwhelmingly become single household properties.

    That creates upward pressure on rents as there is demand for extra households to be occupied within a proportionally reduced stock of dwellings.
    Oh yeah. So very indeed.

    For example, one of the juniors at the bank is getting married. So she and her husband to be have moved out of their “impromptu” HMOs. And bought a two bedroom flat. Which they are selfishly and viciously keeping for themselves alone.

    I’ve absolutely no idea why they might want a spare room. Can anyone help explain?
    I'm not sure what your point is there. It's not really about blaming, or not, individuals.

    If they are in an 'impromptu' (ie unlicensed) HMO in England, then the tenancy agreement is breached, and the tenants have placed the Landlord in breach of his license, and LL is liable for a civil or crominal penalty, which may run into 5 figure.

    Any Council regulating rentals will require the situation to be returned to a lawful status, or the LL risks losing his license to let out property.

    That's just the system we have created under the 2005 Housing Act, and its implications.

    It is absolutely standard for Councils to try and turn LLs into social policemen, despite them not having the lawful authority to do so, and such terms are often found buried in the small print of Landlord Licences.

    That is one reason why I have a very knowledgeable and professional lettings agent when I need one.
    I’m not actually blaming anyone.

    It’s how things are - subletting like this is endemic to the point of standard. New built flats and houses often come with serious locks on all the bedrooms - those ones built into the round knob handles are popular.

    Good luck getting any actual action on this.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098
    mwadams said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris 349 - Trump 189

    Yes. And let's hope the EC spreads come out before that becomes a more common view. I want to buy @ 280.
    I'm disconcerted by your new profile pic. The old tin o' beans was a great visual handle to easily see who was speaking. One of the best. Can I request its return after the election?
    Yes, deal. This is just until Nov 6th. I feel so strongly about this election that I had to do something. I thought about flying over there to help out but in the end decided the most effective thing I could do was change my PB profile pic.
    This was posted entirely without irony, I assume?
    Well my posts are widely read and the audience are largely influential people - so having a picture of Kamala Harris alongside each one might (subliminally) nudge opinion in the right direction.
    I think you need to get your head out of your own arse.

    My profile picture is cuts of beef from a cow, and I'm under no illusions it's convincing the masses to eat beef.
    It's a good pic too. And it might be having a tiny effect right on the very outer edge of the margins. That is all an ordinary person can do. It's miles better than nothing.

    Point is, you're leveraging your profile pic and I'm now taking a leaf, just in a different cause. You're promoting burgers and steaks, I'm trying to save the American dream.
    Contact these people and see if there's anything you can do. https://www.democratsabroad.org/uk
    Thanks. I think I'd feel a bit funny as a Brit with that though.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,541
    Twitter argument between Jonathan Portes and Robert Colvile.

    https://x.com/rcolvile/status/1835704208462405936
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,201
    Tres said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris 349 - Trump 189

    Yes. And let's hope the EC spreads come out before that becomes a more common view. I want to buy @ 280.
    I'm disconcerted by your new profile pic. The old tin o' beans was a great visual handle to easily see who was speaking. One of the best. Can I request its return after the election?
    Yes, deal. This is just until Nov 6th. I feel so strongly about this election that I had to do something. I thought about flying over there to help out but in the end decided the most effective thing I could do was change my PB profile pic.
    This was posted entirely without irony, I assume?
    Well my posts are widely read and the audience are largely influential people - so having a picture of Kamala Harris alongside each one might (subliminally) nudge opinion in the right direction.
    I think you need to get your head out of your own arse.

    My profile picture is cuts of beef from a cow, and I'm under no illusions it's convincing the masses to eat beef.
    Ooh, that reminds me. Need to pass by Waitrose on the way home and pick up a kilo of steak for dinner.
    {Bulgarian mode ON}

    Ok, that’s the starter.

    What are you planning on for the main course?
    istr Sandpit is an immigrant so will be dining on a choice bit of sliced cat
    So dog for main course?

    Stuffed with homework?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,576
    Tres said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Harris 349 - Trump 189

    Yes. And let's hope the EC spreads come out before that becomes a more common view. I want to buy @ 280.
    I'm disconcerted by your new profile pic. The old tin o' beans was a great visual handle to easily see who was speaking. One of the best. Can I request its return after the election?
    Yes, deal. This is just until Nov 6th. I feel so strongly about this election that I had to do something. I thought about flying over there to help out but in the end decided the most effective thing I could do was change my PB profile pic.
    This was posted entirely without irony, I assume?
    Well my posts are widely read and the audience are largely influential people - so having a picture of Kamala Harris alongside each one might (subliminally) nudge opinion in the right direction.
    I think you need to get your head out of your own arse.

    My profile picture is cuts of beef from a cow, and I'm under no illusions it's convincing the masses to eat beef.
    Ooh, that reminds me. Need to pass by Waitrose on the way home and pick up a kilo of steak for dinner.
    {Bulgarian mode ON}

    Ok, that’s the starter.

    What are you planning on for the main course?
    istr Sandpit is an immigrant so will be dining on a choice bit of sliced cat
    I’m in Dubai, not Ohio. ;)
  • Nigelb said:

    Harris 303, Trump 235. Harris wins NV, NE-02, PA and NC, loses GA. PA, NC and GA are all won by tiny margins. Senate D 49-51 R.

    Does everyone think Cruz will win again ?
    It's more likely than not. Similarly with Scott in FL
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    I'm currently in another LD fringe meeting eating a free lunch. "Peers for gambling reform". I don't know what it's about. Gambling I assume.

    Some suggestions:

    Bookies must accept to lose £500 on a wager. (Or a ton on)
    If a price is offered, it must be offered to all. The only reason for barring a customer from a shop must be behaviour related, customers should not be barred from online accounts simply because they beat SP or win etc.
    KYC should be invoked prior to deposit, not prior to withdrawal from online bookmakers.
    I strongly second the last one. Back before I got nixed from them all I often had to work very hard to get my money out because of that.

    "Here's my deposit."
    "Cheers thanks!"
    "Can I withdraw my balance now?"
    "Hmm, maybe. Let's run some checks first."
  • Jeez.

    Dominique Pélicot, the French man accused of drugging his wife and inviting more than 80 men to rape her, said he started planning the assaults after becoming “totally idle” in his retirement.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/17/dominique-plicot-french-rape-case/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,583

    Trump wins 285 to 253.

    He scrapes Penn by the tiny margin and there are days of court cases but he holds it.

    He wins NC and MI. Again by small numbers.

    But its enough and America and the West are f*cked.

    I'm depressed writing this prediction and hope I am very very wrong but I think the polling is underplaying his 'shy trump voters' who refuse to deal with polling.

    Counterfactual: If Hillary Clinton had become President in 2016 instead of Trump, what would have happened in Ukraine?
    Clinton was a hawk on Russia. I think it's quite possible she would have provided more support for the strengthening of Ukraine's armed forces, earlier. Hostilities might have begun in 2022 when Ukrainian armed forces launched a successful operation to liberate the occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, Russia ultimately declining to go to war to defend its puppet states due to the strong deterrence posture of the US.

    Crimea would remain an occupied anomaly.
    Clinton being a hawk on Russia is precisely why Putin might have invaded earlier if she were president.
    Okay. So your argument is:

    Putin didn't invade Ukraine while Trump was President because Trump was too scary for him.

    Putin would have invaded if Clinton had become President because Clinton would have been too scary for him.

    I think you need to find another angle. You've mined this one as far as it will go.
    No, the argument is the Clinton would have been cackhanded and provocative, whereas Trump was respectful but unpredictable.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,118
    edited September 17

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    The occupancy mix changes, despite @BartholomewRoberts' claims.

    There have 500k+ HMOs in England (2021 census numbers where people happened to be at the time), and unlawful (ie in your words 'impromptu') and deliberately illegal ones on top, which each have multiple households in them.

    Of the 500k counted, ~100k are large HMOs (6 people or more) and the rest are small HMOs ("3 or more people in 2 or more households").

    When the small HMOs go into the owner occupied sector, they overwhelmingly become single household properties.

    That creates upward pressure on rents as there is demand for extra households to be occupied within a proportionally reduced stock of dwellings.
    Oh yeah. So very indeed.

    For example, one of the juniors at the bank is getting married. So she and her husband to be have moved out of their “impromptu” HMOs. And bought a two bedroom flat. Which they are selfishly and viciously keeping for themselves alone.

    I’ve absolutely no idea why they might want a spare room. Can anyone help explain?
    I'm not sure what your point is there. It's not really about blaming, or not, individuals.

    If they are in an 'impromptu' (ie unlicensed) HMO in England, then the tenancy agreement is breached, and the tenants have placed the Landlord in breach of his license, and LL is liable for a civil or crominal penalty, which may run into 5 figure.

    Any Council regulating rentals will require the situation to be returned to a lawful status, or the LL risks losing his license to let out property.

    That's just the system we have created under the 2005 Housing Act, and its implications.

    It is absolutely standard for Councils to try and turn LLs into social policemen, despite them not having the lawful authority to do so, and such terms are often found buried in the small print of Landlord Licences.

    That is one reason why I have a very knowledgeable and professional lettings agent when I need one.
    I’m not actually blaming anyone.

    It’s how things are - subletting like this is endemic to the point of standard. New built flats and houses often come with serious locks on all the bedrooms - those ones built into the round knob handles are popular.

    Good luck getting any actual action on this.
    If Ts are subletting like that without LL knowledge, then they are all in breach of the law, and any licensing Council should require regularisation or eviction, according to their regulatory system.

    If it's an entirely illegal HMO done by the LL that is a more serious matter, and the criminal landlord needs to be closed down.

    In another different category, when I refurbished a pair of student HMOs back in 2010 (built in ~1995 as part of a redevelopment of my father's business premises site) the lettings agent was explicit that locks could *not* be on room doors, because it is a Student HMO not a Capsule Hotel.

    We rent to groups of students, and it is set up to be like a family house which is what they want, and there is an expectation of mutual respect.

    I think any improvements to the system will be based around whether it is driven by "anti-landlord" or "pro-tenant" politics; the two are very different.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,797
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reagan has become one of those historical figures whom both sides cite for their advantage.

    Ronald Reagan: “Can we doubt that only a divine providence placed this land...here as a refuge for all those people in the world who yearn to breathe freely: Jews and Christians…the boat people of Southeast Asia, of Cuba and of Haiti?”
    https://x.com/AccountableGOP/status/1835735665096700090

    Definitely one of the most quotable of modern Presidents since Kennedy. Had a real knack of summarising a point in a pithy sentence.
    “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” - a phrase that could still yet swing this coming election.
    "A recession is when your neighbour loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours. And a recovery is when he, (pointing at Carter) loses his."
  • eekeek Posts: 28,362
    edited September 17
    So Scotland has no money - but the Scottish Government is helping Glasgow host the 2026 Commonwealth Games.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8ddeeklxko
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    eek said:

    So Scotland has no money - but the Scottish Government is helping Glasgow host the 2026 Commonwealth Games.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8ddeeklxko

    I'm not quite sure why the Commonwealth Games cannot be run cost neutral. For sure the TV rights are not the draw that is the Olympics or the World Cup, but will be something as will sponsorship etc. And that's before ticket prices.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    A straw but I’ll happily clutch at it, and inhale hopium through it too if needs be.

    Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania — and two bellwether PA counties — exclusive poll finds

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/16/harris-trump-pennsylvania-poll/75236006007/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited September 17
    BBC News

    Sarah Montague very critical of the LDs chasing Tory seats. Taking the p*** out of sandal wearing LDs and trying to get the delegates to criticise Starmer's wife's £5000 clothing donation. They weren't as critical as one would have expected.

    Tim Davey defending his handling of the Huw Edwards scandal as Jermaine Jenas's feet didn't touch the ground.
  • eek said:

    So Scotland has no money - but the Scottish Government is helping Glasgow host the 2026 Commonwealth Games.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8ddeeklxko

    Keep up, Oz is paying for it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce8ddeeklxko

    However Anas Sarwar appears to be responsible for this magnificent coup.

    https://x.com/msm_monitor/status/1835795462843940889?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    Dura_Ace said:

    Jeez.

    Dominique Pélicot, the French man accused of drugging his wife and inviting more than 80 men to rape her, said he started planning the assaults after becoming “totally idle” in his retirement.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/17/dominique-plicot-french-rape-case/

    It was that or model railways.
    From the BBC story:

    "Mr Pelicot also said he "became perverted" when, in 2010, he met a male nurse on the internet who suggested he drug his wife with a sedative, explained how to administer it and shared photos of drugged women. "That's when it all clicked," Mr Pelicot said. "Everything started then.""

    How many of us, hand on heart, cannot say we wouldn't have done the same?*





    *I really hope its 100%.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,032

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eabhal said:

    Roger said:


    Who could have seen this coming ?

    Junior Doctors to strike for even more pay

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/17/doctors-threaten-strikes-despite-pay-deal-politics-latest/

    I could. The Telegraph always makes stuff up.
    I couldn't work out whether it was the Telegraph going off on one or Alanbrooke and it turned out to be a mixture of the two.

    Nothing to see .....;move on
    Oh Roger even the BBC said the Junior Doctore will be back for more.

    Regrettably there will be a lot more news on Labour incompetence over the next 5 years and you cant keep blaming the messengers.

    Ed Miliband - theres a fk up on two legs who hasnt a clue what he is doing.
    Not sure about the Ed Miliband thing - offshore wind development has 82% approval rating, including 82% among Tories and 73% among Reform voters.

    The more they get Miliband on the news talking about the successful auctions, the better.
    Offshore wind is not in anyone's back yard, though.

    Onshore wind, on the other hand, I think the previous government was right to be cautious about.

    Latest plan in this part of the world is for a large area of the Pennines north of Calderdale to be turned into a monster wind development. It is the nearest bit of open land for quite a large population and part of a peat restoration project. Not surprisingly it is somewhat controversial but if Ed decides that we must suffer this for the net zero project, it will no doubt get built.

    https://calderdalewind.co.uk/site/

    As if the peat restoration couldn't take place _without_ building lots of roads and 200m turbines...
    If the turbine project doesn't take place then the land continues I assume to be used as a grouse shoot - which in terms of biodiversity and carbon is pretty much bottom of the pile for that sort of peat land I think. I'd be inclined to be in favour of the project though I don't know too much about it other than the blurb on the site.
    "£2.5m annual Community Benefit Fund paid to Calderdale Council to help relieve fuel poverty for 30 years.." will possible swing it.

    That works out at around £8 per annum, per kW of capacity.
    Yes, it might. I know the council people involved in the peat restoration though, and they are definitely not in favour.

    They'll probably get ignored though.

    Heavily managed grouse moors in these parts will eventually be killed off, I think, without having to spoil them with anything else. There are sites not far from Calderdale that have had the sheep and shooters thrown off and the number of species that have turned up is amazing. The old fashioned shoots (I could mention a couple of estates here, but probably best not) that still exist and do illegal or antisocial things are being tolerated less and less, particularly when their actions lead to flooding and peat loss. A bit more money for land restoration is all it would take for them to go.

    With such a large surrounding population and a seemingly greater demand for wild(ish) spaces, it would do a lot of good for the area to keep it open, restore the bog where possible, and not turn it into a power station.

    I want to see 500m turbines on Dogger Bank instead.

    The arrays visible from the East Yorkshire coast are already impressive.
    How good/inadequate are the mitigations for the scheme ?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,983
    Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    The occupancy mix changes, despite @BartholomewRoberts' claims.

    There have 500k+ HMOs in England (2021 census numbers where people happened to be at the time), and unlawful (ie in your words 'impromptu') and deliberately illegal ones on top, which each have multiple households in them.

    Of the 500k counted, ~100k are large HMOs (6 people or more) and the rest are small HMOs ("3 or more people in 2 or more households").

    When the small HMOs go into the owner occupied sector, they overwhelmingly become single household properties.

    That creates upward pressure on rents as there is demand for extra households to be occupied within a proportionally reduced stock of dwellings.
    It's a fair point, but I think you would want to weight it by the periods rental properties are empty between tenancies and do some sort of time series analysis, particularly as couples fill flats with kids.

    Must be a drop in the ocean compared with general under-occupancy of housing for owner occupiers though. Abolish stamp duty to encourage downsizing etc etc
    That will scarcely touch the sides. As a country we have an extremely low under-occupancy and vacancy rate. The market is too tight and has been for decades. The only thing that will change it long term is more new houses.
    France has 8 million more homes than we do, and higher rates of over-occupancy.
    France has vast amounts of extremely affordable (and nice) property everywhere outside inner Paris. Enough that loads of people have second homes without needing to be richer than Croesus. It would be wonderful to have a property market like France.
  • On topic - OK I will dip my toes into the fire.

    Harris will win the popular vote and I suspect by more than Clinton (2%) but less than 2008 Obama (7%). Though her polling position on 16 September is actually better than Obama's in 2008 and exactly the same as the pre-surprise Clinton campaign.

    Dems need 270 and look pretty much bolted on for 227. I would argue that Nevada and Wisconsin are rapidly going the same way which would make 243. Michigan has the issue of its Muslim electorate. If they react as in the UK then it is not safe. Reps are using anti-semitic material there against Harris's husband. I suspect enough will realise Trump is a much bigger threat courtesy of his recent behaviour. That makes 259.

    Which leaves Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. Any one of those would win it for Harris. A combination of Arizona and a longshot win somewhere like Alaska or Iowa would do it too. So would Florida or Texas but if the Dems needed a win in either of those (and evn more improbably if they got it) to seal the deal I am sure a 2000-style situation would occur.

    My feeling observing the different types of polls (College / UK-style / Rep Voodoo / Dem Voodoo) is that Harris will win Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Trump will win Georgia but only if the local GOP pull it out of the bag for him with their GOTV machine. Arizona at that point makes no difference and I wouldn't care to call it.

    Of course my opinion could change in a week's time!
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Jeez.

    Dominique Pélicot, the French man accused of drugging his wife and inviting more than 80 men to rape her, said he started planning the assaults after becoming “totally idle” in his retirement.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/17/dominique-plicot-french-rape-case/

    It was that or model railways.
    From the BBC story:

    "Mr Pelicot also said he "became perverted" when, in 2010, he met a male nurse on the internet who suggested he drug his wife with a sedative, explained how to administer it and shared photos of drugged women. "That's when it all clicked," Mr Pelicot said. "Everything started then.""

    How many of us, hand on heart, cannot say we wouldn't have done the same?*





    *I really hope its 100%.
    Or hand on heart, say we wouldn’t even joke about. Unfortunately 25% of the current Tory leadership candidature cannot say that.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392

    BBC News

    Sarah Montague very critical of the LDs chasing Tory seats. Taking the p*** out of sandal wearing LDs and trying to get the delegates to criticise Starmer's wife's £5000 clothing donation. They weren't as critical as one would have expected.

    Tim Davey defending his handling of the Huw Edwards scandal as Jermaine Jenas's feet didn't touch the ground.

    And what did Jenas actually do?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,211

    On topic - OK I will dip my toes into the fire.

    Harris will win the popular vote and I suspect by more than Clinton (2%) but less than 2008 Obama (7%). Though her polling position on 16 September is actually better than Obama's in 2008 and exactly the same as the pre-surprise Clinton campaign.

    Dems need 270 and look pretty much bolted on for 227. I would argue that Nevada and Wisconsin are rapidly going the same way which would make 243. Michigan has the issue of its Muslim electorate. If they react as in the UK then it is not safe. Reps are using anti-semitic material there against Harris's husband. I suspect enough will realise Trump is a much bigger threat courtesy of his recent behaviour. That makes 259.

    Which leaves Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. Any one of those would win it for Harris. A combination of Arizona and a longshot win somewhere like Alaska or Iowa would do it too. So would Florida or Texas but if the Dems needed a win in either of those (and evn more improbably if they got it) to seal the deal I am sure a 2000-style situation would occur.

    My feeling observing the different types of polls (College / UK-style / Rep Voodoo / Dem Voodoo) is that Harris will win Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Trump will win Georgia but only if the local GOP pull it out of the bag for him with their GOTV machine. Arizona at that point makes no difference and I wouldn't care to call it.

    Of course my opinion could change in a week's time!

    227 , are you sure? I make it 226.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,638
    edited September 17
    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    The occupancy mix changes, despite @BartholomewRoberts' claims.

    There have 500k+ HMOs in England (2021 census numbers where people happened to be at the time), and unlawful (ie in your words 'impromptu') and deliberately illegal ones on top, which each have multiple households in them.

    Of the 500k counted, ~100k are large HMOs (6 people or more) and the rest are small HMOs ("3 or more people in 2 or more households").

    When the small HMOs go into the owner occupied sector, they overwhelmingly become single household properties.

    That creates upward pressure on rents as there is demand for extra households to be occupied within a proportionally reduced stock of dwellings.
    It's a fair point, but I think you would want to weight it by the periods rental properties are empty between tenancies and do some sort of time series analysis, particularly as couples fill flats with kids.

    Must be a drop in the ocean compared with general under-occupancy of housing for owner occupiers though. Abolish stamp duty to encourage downsizing etc etc
    That will scarcely touch the sides. As a country we have an extremely low under-occupancy and vacancy rate. The market is too tight and has been for decades. The only thing that will change it long term is more new houses.
    France has 8 million more homes than we do, and higher rates of over-occupancy.
    France has vast amounts of extremely affordable (and nice) property everywhere outside inner Paris. Enough that loads of people have second homes without needing to be richer than Croesus. It would be wonderful to have a property market like France.
    They have roughly the same housing costs as we do according to the OECD stats on this kind of thing. I presume they have the same problem as we do, with massive demand in the cities and stagnating economies elsewhere.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,361
    Andy_JS said:

    Twitter argument between Jonathan Portes and Robert Colvile.

    https://x.com/rcolvile/status/1835704208462405936

    Portes really is, whatever the merits of his argument or otherwise, a fragile flower.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,118
    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    Eabhal said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ugh, Labour’s war on the landlord continues.

    Landlords face £90,000 capital gains tax bills under a Labour shake-up of the country’s tax system, new analysis shows.

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out aligning capital gains tax with income tax, which would see more of property owners’ house price gains hoovered up by the Treasury.

    If the taxes were aligned, landlords looking to sell properties they bought before 2005 would have to fork out between £87,000 and £90,000.

    This is a 67pc increase on the current £54,000 average that those selling their property after 20 years of ownership have to pay to cover the levy, according to estate agent Hamptons.

    A Treasury spokesman said Ms Reeves “has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax” to address the “£22bn black hole” in public finances.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/capital-gains/landlords-face-90000-capital-gains-tax-bills-under-labour/

    How much are they expecting rents to go up in cities like London and Manchester, if half the landlords sell up at once?
    Those houses don't vanish into thin air. Labour - the party of owning your own home.
    The occupancy mix changes, despite @BartholomewRoberts' claims.

    There have 500k+ HMOs in England (2021 census numbers where people happened to be at the time), and unlawful (ie in your words 'impromptu') and deliberately illegal ones on top, which each have multiple households in them.

    Of the 500k counted, ~100k are large HMOs (6 people or more) and the rest are small HMOs ("3 or more people in 2 or more households").

    When the small HMOs go into the owner occupied sector, they overwhelmingly become single household properties.

    That creates upward pressure on rents as there is demand for extra households to be occupied within a proportionally reduced stock of dwellings.
    It's a fair point, but I think you would want to weight it by the periods rental properties are empty between tenancies and do some sort of time series analysis, particularly as couples fill flats with kids.

    Must be a drop in the ocean compared with general under-occupancy of housing for owner occupiers though. Abolish stamp duty to encourage downsizing etc etc
    That will scarcely touch the sides. As a country we have an extremely low under-occupancy and vacancy rate. The market is too tight and has been for decades. The only thing that will change it long term is more new houses.
    France has 8 million more homes than we do, and higher rates of over-occupancy.
    France has vast amounts of extremely affordable (and nice) property everywhere outside inner Paris. Enough that loads of people have second homes without needing to be richer than Croesus. It would be wonderful to have a property market like France.
    France also has nearly 3 times as much land as we do, and a system of property / tenancy law that is weirdly outdated in many respects.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392

    Dura_Ace said:

    Jeez.

    Dominique Pélicot, the French man accused of drugging his wife and inviting more than 80 men to rape her, said he started planning the assaults after becoming “totally idle” in his retirement.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/17/dominique-plicot-french-rape-case/

    It was that or model railways.
    From the BBC story:

    "Mr Pelicot also said he "became perverted" when, in 2010, he met a male nurse on the internet who suggested he drug his wife with a sedative, explained how to administer it and shared photos of drugged women. "That's when it all clicked," Mr Pelicot said. "Everything started then.""

    How many of us, hand on heart, cannot say we wouldn't have done the same?*





    *I really hope its 100%.
    Or hand on heart, say we wouldn’t even joke about. Unfortunately 25% of the current Tory leadership candidature cannot say that.
    I missed that. Which idiot made the joke?
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Jeez.

    Dominique Pélicot, the French man accused of drugging his wife and inviting more than 80 men to rape her, said he started planning the assaults after becoming “totally idle” in his retirement.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/17/dominique-plicot-french-rape-case/

    It was that or model railways.
    From the BBC story:

    "Mr Pelicot also said he "became perverted" when, in 2010, he met a male nurse on the internet who suggested he drug his wife with a sedative, explained how to administer it and shared photos of drugged women. "That's when it all clicked," Mr Pelicot said. "Everything started then.""

    How many of us, hand on heart, cannot say we wouldn't have done the same?*





    *I really hope its 100%.
    Or hand on heart, say we wouldn’t even joke about. Unfortunately 25% of the current Tory leadership candidature cannot say that.
    I missed that. Which idiot made the joke?
    James Cleverly.

    https://news.sky.com/story/home-secretary-james-cleverlys-date-rape-joke-misogynistic-and-very-ill-judged-senior-tory-mp-says-13038995
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,638

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Eabhal said:

    Roger said:


    Who could have seen this coming ?

    Junior Doctors to strike for even more pay

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/09/17/doctors-threaten-strikes-despite-pay-deal-politics-latest/

    I could. The Telegraph always makes stuff up.
    I couldn't work out whether it was the Telegraph going off on one or Alanbrooke and it turned out to be a mixture of the two.

    Nothing to see .....;move on
    Oh Roger even the BBC said the Junior Doctore will be back for more.

    Regrettably there will be a lot more news on Labour incompetence over the next 5 years and you cant keep blaming the messengers.

    Ed Miliband - theres a fk up on two legs who hasnt a clue what he is doing.
    Not sure about the Ed Miliband thing - offshore wind development has 82% approval rating, including 82% among Tories and 73% among Reform voters.

    The more they get Miliband on the news talking about the successful auctions, the better.
    Offshore wind is not in anyone's back yard, though.

    Onshore wind, on the other hand, I think the previous government was right to be cautious about.

    Latest plan in this part of the world is for a large area of the Pennines north of Calderdale to be turned into a monster wind development. It is the nearest bit of open land for quite a large population and part of a peat restoration project. Not surprisingly it is somewhat controversial but if Ed decides that we must suffer this for the net zero project, it will no doubt get built.

    https://calderdalewind.co.uk/site/

    As if the peat restoration couldn't take place _without_ building lots of roads and 200m turbines...
    If the turbine project doesn't take place then the land continues I assume to be used as a grouse shoot - which in terms of biodiversity and carbon is pretty much bottom of the pile for that sort of peat land I think. I'd be inclined to be in favour of the project though I don't know too much about it other than the blurb on the site.
    "£2.5m annual Community Benefit Fund paid to Calderdale Council to help relieve fuel poverty for 30 years.." will possible swing it.

    That works out at around £8 per annum, per kW of capacity.
    Yes, it might. I know the council people involved in the peat restoration though, and they are definitely not in favour.

    They'll probably get ignored though.

    Heavily managed grouse moors in these parts will eventually be killed off, I think, without having to spoil them with anything else. There are sites not far from Calderdale that have had the sheep and shooters thrown off and the number of species that have turned up is amazing. The old fashioned shoots (I could mention a couple of estates here, but probably best not) that still exist and do illegal or antisocial things are being tolerated less and less, particularly when their actions lead to flooding and peat loss. A bit more money for land restoration is all it would take for them to go.

    With such a large surrounding population and a seemingly greater demand for wild(ish) spaces, it would do a lot of good for the area to keep it open, restore the bog where possible, and not turn it into a power station.

    I want to see 500m turbines on Dogger Bank instead.

    The arrays visible from the East Yorkshire coast are already impressive.
    This is where things get tricky. The really valuable bits of the UK in terms of biodiversity tend to be wetlands and our coastal areas. The stunning countryside in the Shires and glorious upland areas in the north - not so much.

    In simple terms, it's the difference between a SSSI and a AONB, or a bog standard Georgian country house or a brutalist tower block in South London. Which of the two do you want to protect?
This discussion has been closed.