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Betfair unmoved by the latest Trump assassination attempt – politicalbetting.com
Betfair unmoved by the latest Trump assassination attempt – politicalbetting.com
One of the biggest overreactions in this market was in the immeediate aftermath after the first assassination attempt. The reason I felt this was a massive overreaction was that Gerald Ford was on the receiving end of two attempted assassination attempts and still lost the 1976 election. It appears punters have understood precedent.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy0gg9k76w9o
An armed man was arrested Monday morning after barricading himself in a business during a three-hour standoff, police said.
Ryan Routh, 36, was arrested without incident at 1 a.m. Monday at United Roofing, 1735 W. Lee St., Greensboro police said.Routh was pulled over about 10 p.m. Sunday during a traffic stop, police said. But he put his hand on a firearm and drove to United Roofing, where he remained barricaded inside, police said.
Routh was charged with carrying a concealed weapon and possession of a weapon of mass destruction, referring to a fully automatic machine gun. He was also charged with resisting, delaying and obstructing a law enforcement officer and driving while license revoked.
https://greensboro.com/man-with-gun-barricades-self-inside-business/article_3006b4f9-9370-5b08-a54e-46c87faf6cbe.html
For soccer fans, that is close to the last time Spurs won the title.
Maybe he thinks the next assassin will succeed - and end his grifting opportunities.
Shows that Trump has taken the dangerous option though - playing golf rather than meeting his adoring supporters.
So logically there's a not negligible chance that the Republicans have a different nominee by November, but the market would suggest that they would be very likely to lose in that event.
If the worst did happen Vance would fly in, and Harris would significantly shorten, even if Betfair and other suspended the markets for a while so a £5 on him might be an idea.
Also covers a complete breakdown by Trump and a belated withdrawal due to a "conspiracy" or a "rigged race" which, although unlikely, isn't impossible.
Old Presidents are great for VPs - ask Harris.
This time IHT on family homes.
I wonder what it will be tomorrow.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/reeves-urged-to-launch-2bn-inheritance-tax-raid-on-family-homes/ar-AA1qDGdK?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=aedb49599803465aa3cad1c80b3c20dd&ei=12
has 15K posts already.
It’ll almost be disappointing if the budget isn’t an apocalypic tax hiking event. (Almost).
Nobody expects the government to confirm or deny the contents of the Budget, so the Telegraph can speculate away. Or shit-stir, as it's commonly known.
See also Vance's latest antics. It's why the taboo on outright lying is so important, and people breaking that taboo are so dangerous.
Had a known history of dodginess. Exactly the sort of person who shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near a high powered rifle.
So it seems like the Secret Service did their job OK, it wasn't a near miss like the thing with the kid at the airport.
Early information often turns out to be wrong, we should know more later.
He chose the Dem primary ballot as Hayley and Rameswamy had both dropped out of the Republican one in NC by the time the ballot happened, or so it's reported.
He's politically a bit all over the place, more a generalised conspiracies and fantasist.
Indeed if elected, I think he will spend a lot of time on the links and just let his imps get on with it.
Use BlueSky, it's fabulous.
Thread:
Far-right movements have been using Springfield, Ohio as a propaganda tool since early 2023.
There aren’t 20,000 Haitian immigrants there
in fact, there are barely 5,000 in the entire state.
The level of cognitive dissonance required for this narrative is staggering...
https://x.com/ellim992/status/1834808909452001532
As for those 'swamped' (why is that always the verb of choice ?) local services.
Annual head count for Springfield City School District on those files -
2024: 7,415
2023: 7,227
2022: 7,107
2021: 7,099
2020: 7,716
2019: 7,551
2018: 7,661
2017: 7,759..
https://x.com/ellim992/status/1834808913696637126
National media has been broadcasting Trump and Vance's shit for days, and not bothered to do some simple journalism.
AFAIK, Vance has never visited Springfield.
I know that the blessed 2nd refers to a “well-regulated militia”, but I’m sure individual crazies paranoid about the feds armed with automatic weapons is exactly what they were thinking when they wrote it.
https://www.thebulwark.com/s/thefocusgroup
The latest one is a bit dull because they're interviewing some journalist instead of concentrating on the focus group clips but it's still worth listening to.
Those stats above make the lie so blatant and so weak that the Dems really should go hard on it. If you’re going to fight the opposition on their strongest ground, you need to choose a story where they’re unusually weak.
F1: interesting result. Not impossible either Leclerc or Piastri could surpass Norris, or that Norris could yet claim the title.
You don't.
Kristi Noem, who shot her dog, is stumping for Trump in Pa. after he claimed that immigrants are eating pets
https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/kristi-noem-berks-county-donald-trump-20240912.html
However if Trump's elected the shooter's links to pro Ukraine groups is unlikely to make Trump look favourably on helping Zelensky
"Ed Davey joins calls to let Ukraine use Storm Shadow missiles in Russia | The Independent" https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/russia-ukraine-missiles-storm-shadow-b2613244.html
To own a fully automatic weapon in the US, you need one.
To get one, requires a process about as strict as a firearms license in the U.K. - includes background checks etc.
It is notable that basically no crimes are committed with legal fully automatic weapons in the US. Gun control, in the case of fully automatic weapons, works.
But the 20,000 number has been uncritically accepted since it was promulgated. Given the national media attention, it's dismal that there's been almost no serious analysis of the figures.
It ought to be pretty easy to check those school roll numbers, for example.
If so, this government won't have been a total failure.
‘The moment has come’: pro-building Labour yimbys are set to raise the roof
Proponents of more homes, turbines and infrastructure – even on the green belt – prepare for rally at party conference
Fewer than one in five UK voters are ‘hard nimbys’, finds survey
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/15/the-moment-has-come-pro-building-labour-yimbys-are-set-to-raise-the-roof
On @MeetThePress, Vance claimed Trump helped more people get health insurance coverage, and specifically Obamacare marketplace coverage.
This is false. The uninsured rate *rose* under Trump; it has fallen to its lowest level on record under Biden.
https://x.com/crampell/status/1835376195870892448
I think there are several things here:
1 - Trump and Vance lie, and when exposed they change their lies to the next version. That is absolutely routine and their followers believe it, some passionately - through hero worship, lack of awareness or the stuff matching their actual opinions.
We see some waking up and publishing how they regret p*ssing their life savings away on a con artist.
I think one question here is how far do Trump and Vance believe their own lies?
Does Tump actually believe the stuff about the Jan 2020 rioters being "hostages" and 'victime'?
2 - The Usonian MSM is as lazy, and in some places as deliberately political, as the MSM here. Though they have a better theoretical commitment to a fair process than exists here - for example in separation of reporting and opinion. Not reporting some important things leading to distortion by changing the mix is imo a common problem.
Whether failing to stick to a better process (USA) is better than failing to stick to a worse process (UK) is a somewhat moot point.
But that's why many of us go on the personal brand of the writer far more these days than we do on the brand of the media outlet.
3 - Last time all the Courts across scores of legal (~60) actions by Trump's Team attempting to undermine the 2020 Election were firmly thrown out for the nonsense they were.
This time? I'm not so sure. And I'm not sure how the now thoroughly poisoned GOP, their fellow travellers, and Trump's useful idiots will react.
4 - The implications for USA allies and other countries are one that has not been worked through in detail afaics. I hope that the UK Govt and Civil Service back office staff are on this one, especially in the Defence / Security area.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/how-to-stop-labour-from-taking-your-pension-tax-free-lump-sum/ar-AA1qyK3a?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=1d066e1a50b64529b9297402cfcbe4dc&ei=14
Harris has crept up to 60% chance of winning on 538:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Not sure what Silver has now - it's paywalled - but must be over 40%
Still, the race is now officially back in toss-up range, which we define as each candidate having at least a 40 percent chance of winning.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GXk806iWAAAO-ch?format=jpg&name=large
It is interesting that his resignation letter is in English.
This latest one comes across as a really likeable wackjob that would provide Oscar bait for an ageing actor like Dennis Quaid in a Clint Eastwood biopic....
The tweeter is accusing him of lying based on irrelevant data
*I know nothing of golf, which might be obvious from my use of these terms
https://x.com/campbellclaret/status/1835583769761202212?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Can you demonstrate that?
https://x.com/milalovesjoe/status/1833972318923583761
He says that the numbers have risen to 15-20k in the last three years, but doesn’t necessarily specify what they were before.
I suspect the truth is in the middle somewhere.
It should be clear that Europe cannot rely even on Democrat administrations to hold the line, never mind Republican ones. And with the US understandably increasingly concerned about Eastern Asia and the Pacific, that's not entirely unreasonable. Europe would need to up its self-reliance even without the outbreak of Trumpite insanity within the Republicans.
But the extent of European reliance on US satellite and intelligence data, and military hardware (the two often being interlinked) should be unacceptable. It's an obvious Trump power lever, for one thing; one he will be willing to pull for his own ends if he actually understands its effectiveness (which is merely a matter of his own and his team's curiosity).
Obviously, the remedy to that will be extremely expensive and means replicating many of the US systems, including manufacturing. It also means the diplomatic difficulty of telling the US that Europe doesn't trust it. It also means military and political co-operation across Europe that will be difficult in current circumstances. None of those are reasons for not doing it, other than to craven politicians who prefer burying their heads in the sand to protecting their countries. I hope, behind the scenes, it's already happening.
Unfortunately the stupid fuckwits in the EU Commission decided to make a political point by excluding the UK rather than actually think about security holistically
Now, I don't care for them. Not because they've made what they do 'boring' - which is genuinely a brilliantly tremendous achievement, but because supporting SpaceX under Musk's leadership is like supporting Drax Industries under Hugo Drax.
Musk is a bigger threat to democracy and the US than even Trump.
This season he might end up facing team orders, but only if they’re on the same piece of track. Lando won’t be getting the benefit of them if he keeps going out in Q1.
What is remarkable about this weekend is that on Friday I thought Norris had screwed up, on Saturday it looked like he had really screwed up yet by Sunday night I thought Norris is now in a better position than he was on Thursday when the orders were announced.
Next season you will have 2 drivers in a team very likely to win the 2025 construction championship that puts a different prospective on it - they will be racing for every point even if it means neither wins the driver's championship.
I think the rumour was that Elin Nordegren used a 9-iron on Tiger Woods' car, which is the next best choice.
Trump being a cheat at golf was the first sign that he was a seriously wrong 'un. See: Goldfinger.
One change that the 2024 Geneal Election made manifest was a generational shift in who is in charge. For a very very long time, the (broadly defined) baby boomers have been the electorate that mattered- as they went, so went the nation. July was roughly the first time that they haven't got their (collective) way. Hence some of the howling as a bit of the austerity that they have supported for others (roughly speaking, their parents and their children) has landed on them.
One other consequence of that is that political power has shifted from a generation who oppose further development and further change in society to a generation who support them. Even if the written rules and Process don't change, there's a decent opportunity for their operation to change. I think we've seen a bit of that already with renewable energy projects fairly quickly liberated from the bottom of Ed M's intray.
(In the wisdom of Yes, Minister, you don't find a judge who will sucumb to pressure, you find one who doesn't need any pressure applied at all.)
https://x.com/thierrybreton/status/1835565206639972734
Musk is an anus. Increasingly. But I love Tesla. Love Space X. Love Starlink. Making it all about him is absolutely what he would like. Let’s not do so.