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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s bumper polling Saturday with at least 3 Westminster on
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s bumper polling Saturday with at least 3 Westminster ones and one EP2014
One Saturday a month we seem to have a glut of polls with ComRes for the Indy on Sun/ S Mirror, Opinium for the Observer and the usual YouGov for the Sunday Times.
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(In relation to the deserved raving about the English team, they do look very good and play nice expansive rugby. As I said earlier, their second rows deserve the highest praise).
From the last thread, but an important point: I can't answer for UD, but I will say that I have been impressed by the writings of Mr Joyce on current Scottish affairs. Irrespective, or perhaps because, of his axe to grind with the local Labour party in Falkirk, his comments on their very nearly disastrous bungling of their selection campaign, and the damage it almost did to Scotland's economy, were informative and useful contributions to current politics.
Can anyone confirm that what the ref did was legit?
i.e. Give a yellow card, then see the replay on the big screen and upgrade it to a red card?
If only our football team and cricket team could do the same.
Also, we have asked a rare question about how people intend to vote in the European Parliament elections in May, and the results are rather different from how people say they will vote in the general election.
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/03/15/poll-alert-41/
Twitter afire with that question about the ref. Since he did it I assume he's allowed to...
Thanks, it was a red card - So the ref got it right in the end.
There's something glorious about seeing a team getting absolutely shellacked.
Were you on Carole's Destrier as recommended by the Usual Suspects?
14/1 for me with WH
They have a lot of structural problems in Scottish rugby. Tbh the sport would benefit (esp in Scotland) by moving summer-wards. But there are of course difficulties with that (not least the rugby league is already there).
I'm really proud of the fact that England have never had a Johnny Foreigner as our coach.
Disagree about the southern hemisphere btw. I'd put NZ and SA up top with England third, above Australia. And with a home World Cup England could certainly make the final at least.
Wales to score 60?
Wales = Rome, Scotland = Carthage
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/winner
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-201.html
"Many posts will be being deleted because they are plain stupid, or because the subject is security sensitive.
As someone who is well involved on this industry, I am already extremely nervous at the amount of detailed system/procedural information already discussed here. It just doesn't help future airline security...
I am just as keen as anyone else to see this queer mystery unravelled, but I am not about to share my professional knowledge. Others need to think before posting."
Last week's Sunday Times YouGov was actually 32/39/10/14
The last Opinium was actually 29/34/10/19
6/1 so 15% chance. I'd rate their chances as better than that, but not massively so.
We are of course still two years out, time for Wales to re-find their form and France can get back much closer to their normal level.
I think Ireland might fade a bit before the WC.
I don't think anyone has ever been convinced of that. The EU is a killer threat to the nation-state and if you believe the nation-state is the guarantor of pretty much all the things people value - even if most people don't realize it yet - then it's worth doing whatever you can to bring down the EU.
The best ever? Exaggerating a little, but they've been one of the best NH sides over the last couple of decades. And probably should've done a little better than they did.
We've actually got a good draw - I know it looks like the Group of Death but point is that if we win the group we get Scotland in QF and France in SF.
Incidentally has anyone noticed how in almost every single World Cup NZ, SA and Aus all end up in the same half of the draw. It is an astonishing coincidence but it literally happens almost every single time.
"Shackeng
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Wiltshire U.K.
Posts: 7
Quote:
“All right, roger that”
I never heard such a phrase. Where did he get "All right" from? Bizarre.
Agreed, I have been unhappy with the phrases used since they were first reported. Are MAS procedures such that sloppy phraseology would be used? Certainly not with the Big Airline I flew for.
If not, was it the crew trying to indicate a HJ? Or HJacker using the R/T?"
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-201.html
Still the same I think. I doubt there'll be any deliberate Russki incursions until after the Crimea vote (except for strategy of tension type pretend ones).
UTTOXETER 4:25
1 Crystal Swing 33/1
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/malaysia-airlines-plane-634-runways-3245824
As for why admit it at all? It's the new media, they were never going to be able to keep it secret anyway.
But you've now gone from "perfectly healthy" to well they were ill, but not that badly. If I hang around will it keep going?
That 3 test series to Australia where naivete cost them multiple times in the final minutes. They should've announced themselves on that series and were good enough to do so. But they didn't quite fulfil their promise.
I wonder what odds on Australia going out of the group of death, might be tempting.
I said the other day I usually back the horse based on the name.
Had I have known that Crystal Swing was racing, I'd have been backing that.
So now they weren't faking in 1995 either? I mean your link has the South African security saying they were definitely ill, but it was because the players sneaked out for seafood rather than getting it from the hotel.
But £25 @ 33/1 on France winning the Six Nations is clouding my judgement.
Of course there have only been 5 WCs since SA were readmitted. If it happens again in 2015 (highly likely) that will be 3 of the last 4 (and 3 out of 6 overall). Plus Aus and NZ were in the same half in 1991 before SA was readmitted. So that would be potentially 4 out of 7 where a Southern Hemisphere final was impossible.
This is likely to be assessed by a mix of comms intercepts and disposition assessments.
This has nothing to do with the fact I had backed Scotland at 9/4 to finish fifth.
8/1 with William Hill.
That's worth a punt now
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/winner
They're light in the pack, Picamole is off-form and they need Dusautoir back badly (a good second row would be handy but isn't really one about right now). But when they get players healthy I think they'll be back to very dangerous.
It's the weather, stupid.
The choice before us in September is not “independence versus the status quo”; “change versus no change”.
A No vote is guaranteed to mean that devolution will change and develop.
How do I know this?
I know it because it’s already been legislated for, in the Scotland Act 2012.
This Act, described at the time of its enactment by the then Secretary of State for Scotland as the largest transfer of fiscal powers within the United Kingdom in its history, will bring to Holyrood a substantial degree of fiscal devolution.
These new powers — as long as Scotland votes No to independence — will come fully into force in 2015 and 2016.
Now, this is not “jam tomorrow”, as Nationalists sometimes claim: it has already been legislated for.
So the choice we face on 18 September is one between bringing devolution to an end (for there will be no devolution if Scotland becomes independent) and developing devolution further.
http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/03/15/reforming-devolution-deepening-union/
Weather correlating with variations in turnout between voting blocs I can understand but is there really any statistical evidence to support weather/seasons and incumbency?
It's no accident that most General Elections were called in spring time: May being favoured over April when the sap is rising and the warmth returning. It coincides with the end of the long dark winters, is a time of regenerative hope and, very practically, when pockets begin to fill a little more after the Christmas and New Year spending.
After this winter which, whilst not cold was nevertheless particularly pernicious for flooding and gales, these settled and mild conditions at least down south are in my view likely to see the feel-good factor return.
I may be wrong! We shall see, but I expect over the next two or three months to see the Conservative share rise.
Its not me that's fleeing the country on the 19th.......
Michael Gove slams the number of Etonians in Cameron's 'inner circle' as 'ridiculous'. #brokenbritain http://goo.gl/8TSe4T
Alan Gibbons @mygibbo 4h
Public schoolboy attacks Conservatives' 'ridiculous' number of Old Etonians in leadership bid. http://gu.com/p/3nhtc/tw via @guardian
Steve Ashton @steveashtonukip 2h
#Gove launches scathing attack on 'preposterous' number of Etonians in Cameron's inner circle http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/michael-gove-launches-scathing-attack-on-preposterous-number-of-etonians-in-david-camerons-inner-circle-9193640.html … via @standardnews
Jeremy Hoare @TopTVCameraman 7h
So wasn't Gove allowed into the Bullingdon Club then? Gove attacks Cameron’s ‘ridiculous’ inner circle of Etonians http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-attacks-david-camerons-ridiculous-inner-circle-of-etonians-9193869.html …
*tears of laughter etc*
Incompetent fops.
Election day voting turnout will vary depending on weather (rain suppresses the casual vote, sun will boost the older vote etc etc) and time of year also has an effect (Uni voters might not be registered where they are based at election times, the election might fall during the 5 months a year teachers are sunbathing in Benidorm etc)
But weather for voting intention? That could only be a background feelgood factor raising optimism which is, like surrealism, a completely different cup of tuna.
Labour lead still 5pts in new Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 35 (+1), Con 30 (+1), Ukip 16 (-3), Lib Dems 10 (n/c). Mili, Clegg ratings up, Cam same
I think you are overlooking the fact that there is a Full Moon in Virgo tomorrow and that planetary forces are re-aligning in preparation for the Vernal Equinox on Thursday.
Venus is also due to connect with Uranus on Tuesday.
It all bodes well for Tory fortunes.
http://qz.com/188270/using-crowdsourcing-to-search-for-flight-mh-370-has-both-pluses-and-minuses/
So it's a reversion back to where they were.
I quote:
When Venus connects with Uranus on Tuesday, people can reveal unexpected new aspects of themselves, friendship is easy to feel, brotherhood too, if you admit the possibility. Take a walk on the wild side. This chance will come again but not in the same way.
[www.celestialweather.com]
There is no so blind as those, like Opinium and compouter, who cannot see,
http://news.opinium.co.uk/survey-results/political-polling-25th-february-2014
This is no doubt Professor Tomkins who orated at the Tory conference in Edinburgh the other day, too.
And the SoS must have been on the sauce if he can't tell the difference between the Scotland Act 1998 and this mickey mouse stuff.
Delighted that Brian O'Driscoll went out on a high
For Liverpool going to Old Trafford will always be hard, it is hard to put into words how much time served Man Utd fans dislike Liverpool and Liverpool FC, for Moyes future he has to realise this match will matter a lot more than the Champions League or Man City next week, lose this one and I would certainly put money on his departure in the near future. The pressure on him would move to another scale.
I talk about this as a neutral who has lived in Greater Manchester for many years.
One of them is convinced of such a shellacking he's given me his ticket for the match tomorrow.
Any opportunity to screw over the English, they'll take it, ever since the Treaty of Troyes, in fact, even before that.
But delighted for Brian O'Driscoll.
Why would anyone commandeer a plane with a full complement of passengers and crew? The motive doesn't seem to be for a ransom. The plane wasn't crashed into a target. There is no sign so far that the plane crashed at all.
The possibilities are all grim. The most ominous is that it now seems entirely possible that those commandeering the plane, crew and passengers have succeeded in securing it and them at an unknown location. This, it appears, may be only phase one of a plan. I doubt that phase two will be to our liking. It seems well organised.
Opinium/Observer poll: CON 30% LAB 35% LDEM 10% UKIP 16%
I don't regard making the top 4 as anything like guaranteed - if we lose tomorrow then the pressure will be back on and it could easily tighten up - especially as we still have to play Spurs.
As a matter of interest, how many here expect the Budget to result in a shift beyond MOE (either way)? My recolelction is that Budgets very rarely do, the omnishambles excepted. People do pay attention and think it might be big, then they work out it's benefited them by £8.73 per year or they've lost £4.68, and they shrug and move on.
I keep on telling you, every time I back Ireland, they win!