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I’m not sure if this is a good or bad strategy by Trump – politicalbetting.com
I’m not sure if this is a good or bad strategy by Trump – politicalbetting.com
Trump says "There will be no third debate" pic.twitter.com/J11Cd9jJPu
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On these figures, he is surely unambiguously behind, in need of something to mix things up.
But on the basis of his performance in this week's debate, another debate will probably make things worse for him.
And the option that a smart gambler would use- walk away and put the losses down to experience- isn't really open to him.
Such a shame.
Republicans for Harris is a real thing, and its starting to gather momentum. The more that name conservatives declare for the conservative candidate, the more that conservative voters will follow.
Trump will be left with the radicals, the deranged, satan-following evangelicals and the remaining gas-breathing drones. The election is over. Only question now is how big she wins.
Although, I wouldn't wish being a prepper for that next debate on
my worst enemyNigel Farage....It is not a good look. The path to a fluke EC victory (seems no chance he tops the popular vote) is getting narrower.
Constant endorsements of Harris by mainstream Republicans just gives a sense that Trump is drifting.
He´s not down yet, but the clock certainly is ticking.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/sep/13/plans-unveiled-for-cheaper-high-speed-alternative-to-scrapped-hs2-northern-leg
Time is running out and the orange jump suit beckons...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqjlxxejreeo
Ban on rental bidding wars is on the way - but will it work?
"The government has set out plans to end bidding wars as part of a wider Renters' Rights Bill, which was published on Wednesday.
Under the legislation, which still needs to be approved by MPs and peers, landlords and letting agents would be legally required to publish an asking rent for their property and banned from encouraging or accepting any bids above this price."
It took me one second to realise what this would probably do. It is likely to just mean that asking prices for rents will increase substantially, if the legislation is enforced, with the 'bids' being up to the asking price, which would be the highest price possible.
Interfering with the market to solve a problem like this (high rents) is typically regarded as a bad idea for very good reasons.
There are more in September too:
Alabama (Sept. 11), Kentucky (Sept. 16), Pennsylvania (Sept. 16), Wisconsin (Sept. 19), Arkansas (Sept. 20), Minnesota (Sept. 20), New York (Sept. 20), South Dakota (Sept. 20), Virginia (Sept. 20), West Virginia (Sept. 20), Idaho (Sept. 21), Louisiana (Sept. 21), New Jersey (Sept. 21), Texas (Sept. 21), Maryland (Sept. 23), Mississippi (Sept. 23), Vermont (Sept. 23), Missouri (Sept. 24), Florida (Sept. 26), Illinois (Sept. 26), Michigan (Sept. 26), North Dakota (Sept. 26), District of Columbia (Sept. 30), and Nebraska (Sept. 30).
The fact remains Trump leads where the topic matters, economy and immigration, and Harris's polling leads are popular vote, which is irrelevant. His followers will be going strictly Ming vase if they have any sense (debatable).
Leftwing populism
Any other sackings from inside the campaign will predictably lead to various news cycles dominated by those telling tales of just how mad the old bastard really is.
He is stuck with who he has. Also, who in their right mind would join to try and salvage his camapign? If it worked and he becomes President, you are made for
lifefour years. But you would have to have a planet-sized sense of self-belief to think you could make the difference - and have Trump actually listen to you.I'm not even sure you're right that the market price would be unaffected. Auctions are designed to squeeze as much consumer surplus as possible out of the transaction, so a fixed price will be at worst the same as the auction price, and perhaps lower.
Well, the second bit of that.
1. Trust in Trump to completely fall apart. That is now happening before our eyes
2. Confidence that Harris will look like the sane choice, even for moderate republicans
There is this obsession with patriotism in America which boggles the mind. But it is a trip wire which makes it really hard for "patriots" who aren't mad to vote for the lunatic who will demolish the thing you are patriotic about.
Trump is falling apart, will only get worse (watch him fire the sane advisors and rely on the core of mentalists screaming that the debate was "rigged" because Harris was given the questions beforehand), and will actively propel more and more conservatives to vote for the conservative candidate - Harris.
Perhaps I will be proven wrong. But I'm feeling pretty good about coming out weeks ago proclaiming that Harris will win bigly.
Firstly, I have said before that I would vote for Harris (if I had to choose, which I fortunately don't), which is still the case. But I thought that Trump was much better. The reporting of the debate on every news channel was that 'Harris won' with the dominant meme created being Trump's comments about migrants eating pets. But in the debate I thought that Harris was poor. She sounded anxious and nervous and lacked Biden's skill in deflecting Trump.
I expect Trump will play up the idea that there is a massive conspiracy against him, and the media are biased against him in their reporting of any debate, so he won't do it.
How do Labour plan to win the battle of mid way?
🌹LAB 29% (-6)
🌳CON 25% (-)
🔶 LIB DEM 14% (+2)
➡️ REF UK 18% (+3)
💚 GREEN 8% (+2)
🟡 SNP 3% (-)
Changes with GE 2024 (GB only)
10-12 September, N = 2,018
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1834487278686675366
So believers in "not close" might be better betting on EC votes rather than individual states.
We compared Trump’s debate answers from 2016 to the ones he gave this week after the very first question on immigration..
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1834422988776899018
The GOP doesn't have a Pelosi to tell him the hard truth.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/fall-in-public-favourability-towards-keir-starmer-and-labour
What I think people don't see is that there is another risk of Harris falling apart. Her persona is a construction of the establishment but she did sound very weak and nervous in the last debate, and has a history of mistakes and misjudgements.
If Trump wants to solve the crime problem, then he needs to address the homespun criminals - native-born or documented immigrant men. They commit the vast majority of crime in America. Maybe Trump could, oh I don't know, send them to Rwanda?
Until he realises they vote for him.
When there’s a boxing match, the winner says “I won”, and the loser says “Can we have a rematch?”
Trump was all up for a series of debates, it was Team Harris that only wanted this one debate, in a carefully-controlled environment with a very friendly team of presenters.
Now that debate has happened, and Harris didn’t totally implode as they thought she might, they’re looking for another.
Trump will want the next debate on Fox, with an audience present and without the presenters “fact-checking” one side and not the other.
My personal view, is that there will be a week or two of back-and-forth, but they will eventually agree to another meeting. Both sides think they can win a second debate.
Labour scores worsen too – but Labour still viewed more positively (36%) than Conservatives (24%). Public less negative about Labour (45%) than Conservatives too (57%).
If that continues, it could become a rout.
OTOH, there's always the possibility of a game changer, with unpredictable effects.
What if, for example, Putin used a tactical nuke in Ukraine in retaliation for some Ukrainian success ?
The damning truth is Trump was actually rather better in this debate than he was against Biden, but he was still a disaster. He might just improve with a third debate, but whether he does or not he desperately needs a game changer at this moment. The most likely such one would be another debate.
It will be fascinating to see what happens after the new leader is elected and the spotlight turns on the conservatives
Will crossover happen,?
I think you might be underestimating her.
"Her persona is a construction of the establishment"... what does that even mean ?
39% support the means testing of the winter fuel allowance and 42% oppose. Those under the age of 55 support the measure, rather than oppose, by 46% to 32% but 58% of those aged 55+ oppose.
Suspect that Reeves can live with that.
As for 'winning' the debate, even Fox News aren't trying to pretend Trump did that.
"At least the Tories never did [insert x y or z]"
Will a new leader change that dynamic ?
If not, a Reform/LibDem/Green coalition which brings in PR would be a wild possibility...
It's not impossible, though, as the economic case is quite strong.
The reality in my view is that rents will follow supply and demand, costs for landlords, interest rates, and regulation, unless the private rented sector is nationalised in state controlled, which raises a whole load of other problems.
I am selling a property now. The market is slow and there are lots of properties on the market for months and years on end at previously achievable prices. The price I have put it on for is about 10% less than what I think the sale price could be with 'offers in excess of'. There is lots of interest including some people that can only afford the lower price - they may be lucky so no harm in them viewing the property. No public interest is being served by the government interfering in this process.
Frankly the infrastructure of many Northern Cities make Sofia look like a better place to do business
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/sep/12/ig-nobel-prize-goes-to-team-who-found-mammals-can-breathe-through-anuses
For instance,
'Dr Saul Newman at the University of Oxford bagged the demography prize for showing that many claims of people living extraordinarily long lives come from places with short life spans, no birth certificates, and where clerical errors and pension fraud abound. “Extreme old age records are a statistical basket case,” he said. “From the level of individual cases, up to broad population patterns, virtually none of our old-age data makes sense.”
Prof Roman Khonsari, a craniofacial surgeon at the Necker-Enfants Malades university hospital in Paris, and colleagues won the anatomy prize for their global study of hair whorls. While scalp hair spirals in a clockwise direction on most people, their research found, there is more counter-clockwise spiralling in the southern hemisphere.'
He has the ability to sell shares within the fortnight. But they only make him a profit if above $10. And unless Trump says he will not sell when he can, the downward pressure will continue. The overall consensus is that the stock is a strong sell:
https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/djt
The prospect of another debate may not be well received on the Truth Social stock price.
And more pertinently, since it led to a massive upsurge of promiscuity among clergy who could no longer legally marry, it takes the facts backwards.
The person who is a better proposition is still going to be the person who rents the property the people who don't pay over the odds will still win by a different means.
The only solution is to vastly increase the supply of houses and I can't see anything that fixes that issue.
But by this point after the 1979 election, Labour were already ahead again. They remained there through 1979, 1980 and 1981. After electing Michael Foot, things began to go wrong for the red team. (Though it took some months for crossover in the polls).
Let the reader understand.
But someone has to be to blame for his imploding campaign and he will be lashing out.
Watching from somewhere where infrastructure just bloody happens, the endless decades of discussion about these projects are costing hundreds of billions in missed opportunity, by not having them already open.
Find the bottleneck and fix it, then move to the next bottleneck and fix that, and keep going because there’s always a next one.
On the other hand, like most features of economics, the consensus of what informed capitalists "think" doesn't necessarily reflect what will actually happen, so there is still a downside risk.
I haven't found a more recent poll on this but in April this year:
"Looking back, 55% of all Americans now say they see Trump’s presidency as a success, while 44% see it as a failure...
Assessing Biden’s time in office so far, 61% say his presidency thus far has been a failure, while 39% say it’s been a success."
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/28/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-matchup/index.html
OK people often have a bit of nostalgia about previous administrations, especially when they think the current one is a failure, and this doesn't mean most people want him back. But it might mean Democrats need to convince undecideds that Trump has got worse since 2020.
Imagine my shock at Joe Rogan being wrong!
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/sep/12/uk-debt-projected-to-almost-triple-over-next-50-years-watchdog-warns
You want to know who won? Find out who refuses to do a 2nd debate.
https://x.com/repmikecollins/status/1833705308624924863?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g
The debate rules were negotiated by Biden's team (and Trump agreed). Harris wanted to change them (open mikes), and Trump refused.
It's not impossible there's a second debate. One of Trump's team (though hardly a reliable source) is claiming one was already agreed.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4875151-trump-harris-second-debate-republicans/
..Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller, meanwhile, argued Wednesday that Trump has committed to another debate, telling CNN that his team agreed to an NBC-hosted debate Sept. 25...
If someone is told it will take more than 5 years to start building a factory, they hear "Fuck Off"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2g20rpr78o
But after her trial last year Cheshire Police revealed it was investigating the time she spent on two placements in Liverpool in 2012 and 2015.
He told the inquiry that some babies collapsed due to dislodgement of endotracheal [breathing] tubes.
"This is not something that is happening all the time", he said.
"It is unusual, and you will hear that it occurs generally in less than 1% of shifts."
The audit found that there were recorded incidents of the tubes being dislodged on 40% of the shifts Letby worked at Liverpool Womens' Hospital.
Mr Baker said: "In light of what we know now, we might wonder why.”
we will have blackouts within 2 years.
Next you'll be telling me they lost the 2020 election and are lying about that.
She did point out the Tories were awful, and she is right.
Also she pointed out I did not really want to risk a REform MP, although I do not get triggered by Reform as much as most here.
I think your point is good though.
I refer to my old anecdote from a decade ago, that Dubai Airport built their Terminal 3 in the same time as Heathrow Terminal 5’s planning inquiry. Same project scope, new buildings on an existing airfield, with no external construction except for the access roads. Why does the UK spend half a decade talking about a new terminal building at an existing airport? JFDI.
Most of the planning and land acquisition is already done. It would be stupid to throw that away. But it's not quite as simple as JFDI.
The rug has been pulled so often that it's going to be tricky convincing the private sector to buy in, without having to overpay to get them to do so.
The regulatory environment also makes improving the supply of housing via the private sector considerably more difficult. Successive governments have got themselves in to a position where they themselves will need to subsidise housebuilding, and as we know there is no money to do that.
It is going to be many, many more years of frustration.
But since it would require an Act of Parliament to build the line from Crewe to Warrington anyway that shouldn't be an insuperable problem.
I'd also like to know what proposals (if any) are being made for the eastern leg to Leeds, rather than the nonsense dreamed up on Shapps' watch.
Two of those three work for Trump, so the absence of a debate works well for him, I think.
The main problem Harris has is that the voters aren't happy with the status quo, and she's the incumbent VP.
The Republicans have a structural problem in US politics that has seen them only win the popular vote once in the last eight Presidential elections. That's a really poor record with a wide mix of different nominees and opposing Democratic nominees.
Trump has created an enthusiasm in the Republican base that I don't think a generic Republican candidate could match, and I think most other Republicans would lose a lower turnout election by a wider margin.