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Ed Miliband’s non-promise of a referendum this week may have been designed to do several things. It could have been a reassurance that a future Labour government wouldn’t repeal this administration’s European Union Act 2011, though it would modify it and that modification could be significant. It could be a half-hearted effort to join the In-Out debate. It could have been an effort to confirm his pro-…
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They're reported to have scheduled a vote on transferring power over Justice and Home Affairs to Brussels for July 22nd, so no.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100260182/the-next-tory-plot-to-embarrass-david-cameron-on-europe-is-already-taking-shape/
In many ways it would be a more rational way of holding a referendum than after a vague-to-woolly "renegotiation". And as David points out, an easier referendum to lose...
http://rncpgbml.wordpress.com/2010/08/13/founding-conference-of-the-revolutionary-new-communist-party-of-great-britain-marxist-leninist/
has infiltrated the board of directors of the Historic Districts Council in New York
http://www.hdc.org/board.htm
The right wing are convinced it's the path to election victory, and Ed has smartly poured fuel on that fire this week. David Cameron has long lost control over his party here; I still think his referendum pledge was made out of weakness and he should have faced the critics down, as he's still unable to say what 'renegotiation' is about so the party unity will collapse into infighting when he's forced to reveal his hand.
With the uptick in LD figures this week and a tough defence of my council seat in May, the Tories are very welcome to keep going on about Europe as long as they like.
Woohoo!
It is not that No "refuses" to say what a No vote means. It is that they cannot agree with each other on which alternative to put. That is hardly surprising when you look at the members of the No camp:
Labour
The Tories
Lib Dems
UKIP
BNP
George Galloway
The Orange Order
Scottish Defence League
GMB
... and within those groups (eg. SLab) there is a vast variety of views, from abolition of the Scottish Parliament at one end to extreme Devo Max at the other end of the spectrum.
It is thus totally impossible for them to say what a No vote would mean. Gordon Brown, Wee Dougie Alexander and the Lib Dems all wisely talk up Devo Max or Federalism ("wise" because it is the Devo Maxxers in the middle who are going to determine the outcome of the referendum, so both sides are trying to woo them.) But they are hindered by the large bampot wing who just cannot hide their glee at the prospect of smashing a sledgehammer into Scotland and her rebuilt civic institutions.
The interesting groups who will be as important in this referendum as they were in the long campaign to re-establish the Scottish Parliament are the churches and the trade union movement. We have yet to see much from religious groups, but it is becoming clear which way the wind is blowing within the trade union movement:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-no-case-disappoints-stuc-1-3314114
"He said the company's most senior managers were left to waste billions of pounds on disastrous corporate transactions because the directors drawn from the Co-op movement were not qualified to keep them in check. "Few of them have any serious business experience and many are drawing material financial benefits from their positions."
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/mar/14/extent-co-op-shambles-laid-bare-by-lord-myners
Ironically little comment so far from Miliband, Balls, etc.
May be I'm not paying attention, but I haven't really seen any Tories "banging on about Europe" recently. I saw the PPB last night which was pretty ghood until a couple of smooth-faced wqallies with no idea of how to run a business came on at the end. I've seen some chat about Ukraine and plenty about the budget and economic case. There was a little about immigration previously but that has gone away.
Europe...nah, not so much.
I think it's one of those things like "welfare scroungers" (and for all you quote grabbers, I have this in quote marks, I am not using it in a perjorative sense, and nor am I a representative of the Tory Party). The Tories are regularly accused by their opponents of "demonising welfare recipients" and "banging on about Europe" but don't *actually* do it. It's just a straight partisan attack*
* Of course, I don't have David's exaulted position in the party, so it may be that the view is different from the dizzy heights of constituency chairman
The more Lord Mandelson told Today that this was a sign of leadership and strength, the more it sounded like he was saying the opposite. I can't share his view that it's a game-changer for Ed, unless it tilts people away from him inside the party. Lord Mandelson is right that in the City and elsewhere the prospect of a referendum is beginning to look like an irresponsible threat that undermines Britain's ability to attract inward investment. He's certainly right that in Mr Cameron's case his referendum pledge hasn't silenced his rebels or shut down the Ukip threat. The point though surely is that those criticisms can now be applied with bells on to Mr Miliband, who can now be accused of taking risks, pandering to threats, trying to appease Ukip and yet doing it in a way that is half-hearted and weak."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100263341
http://www.party.coop/2012/07/09/ed-miliband-mp-sets-out-his-banking-reform-plans-at-the-co-operative-bank-hq/
After some thought I decided that it wasn't fair to pick on him in another context for his private views, and it was good that he'd taken up a non-racist interest. So I continued to work with him. Nobody else noticed, so far as I know, and he carried on peacefully trying to preserve buildings with my and other parties' help. Felt odd, but on balance right - otherwise you end up in the Berufsverbot position of trying to stop leftists from being postmen or train drivers.
And spend billions bailing out the PIIGS ?
Nein danke...
Though it may be useful knowledge if he were to campaign against a mosque being built, but not against other developments.
I enjoyed Johns link to the splitters. It takes me back to my early days reading The Spartacist and Class War. are they still going?
I've started backing blue and laying red again just to annoy everyone re the odd Betfair prices... all wishful spending but hey, it's that or let Ed Balls take it off me if he gets in.
Ironically little comment so far from Miliband, Balls, etc.
Sorry - are you referring to the co-op or the Labour leadership there as both obviously apply?
I see that they haven't forgiven Tony Benn for supporting the capitalist class...
And the Spartacists remain loyal to the 4th International: http://www.icl-fi.org
:
What frankly will be more important will be if the euro hype built up by the media around UKIP bursts because of lack of interest post Euros or indeed because Nigel Farage simply fails to deliver.
More than one of us might get personal. but that's not what this forum is for.
I too was YouGov'd about the Coop and made the point it should stop funding the Labour Party until it has got its accounts back in order.
they have well and truly kicked off first point and their puppets are reporting according to plan
Labour/Westminster are working together and have their campaign to cheat the Scottish people (again) all worked out. In 8 easy steps they will -
1. Before the vote they will start talking about enhanced devolution – even though devo max isn’t on the ballot paper. The MSM will report this ‘talk’ as a genuine offer.
If it’s a No vote they will then –
2. ‘Allow’ Scotland more taxation powers.
3. Scrap the Barnett – formula leaving Scotland with a 4-7 billion black hole in it’s finances.
3. Ask why Scottish ministers are allowed to vote on English matters, because they already gave us our enhanced devo, then redress that.
4. Scotland is now less powerful at Westminster, has less money to spend but will have been ‘given’ more powers to increase taxation.
5. In 2016 to fill that 4-7 billion pound black hole in Scotland’s finances the Scottish govt will have to either, raise taxes or cut public services, making them extremely unpopular.
6. They’ve now lost the referendum, had to increase taxes or cut services, proving to the media they’re the same as Westminster. They become untenable as a vote.
7. So, Labour sets Scotland up to fail, and then occupy the ruins.
And…..
8. The Tories have written Scotland off because they now have no power and get the bonus of ejecting Scottish MPs from Westminster.
NB: these views are based on actually having read Myners interim report and knowing some of the players
Anyway, enough from me. The sea calls, and I cannot resist ...
And…..
8. The Tories have written Scotland off because they now have no power and get the bonus of ejecting Scottish MPs from Westminster.
Malcolm why do you persist in writing such shite about the Tory party. Get it clear in your head. In 2010 for every 6 people who voted SNP 5 voted Tory. That was 412,000 Scots Tory voters. Hundreds of Scots Tories will be debating important issues today at the Scottish Tory conference in Edinburgh.
If YES doesn't win in September it will be because Eck and the YESNP failed not because the pro union parties cheated the Scots.
The Scots voters are capable of making up their own minds. If they want independence they will vote for it. If they don't, they wont. I would prefer not to live in a country which is not a member of the EU, NATO, has to establish its own currency but that is me. If my fellow Scots want that, I wont bad mouth them for doing so and will do my best to make an independent Scotland a success. I wont carp in the background because my arguments failed!
If YES doesn't win in September it will be because Eck and the YESNP failed not because the pro union parties cheated the Scots.
The Scots voters are capable of making up their own minds. If they want independence they will vote for it. If they don't, they wont. I would prefer not to live in a country which is not a member of the EU, NATO, has to establish its own currency but that is me. If my fellow Scots want that, I wont bad mouth them for doing so and will do my best to make an independent Scotland a success. I wont carp in the background because my arguments failed!
Easterross, I persist due to listening to the Tory party in Scotland and the shite they spout about how we are stupid and need London to make all our decisions for us. You had your chance to clean the stables out last year but chose to put a numpty puppet in charge of the same old duffers who could not run a bath. Until the Tories in Scotland grow a backbone and stop putting London puppets in charge of the regional party then you will continue to have no MP's and rely on list to get a handful of Holyrood MSP's. It will be a continual contest between Tories and Lib Dems to not be last in every election.
With regard to edinburgh they will just be blethering , they have no power and no influence to do anything and will do exactly as London tell tell them what to do , mixed with a few pats on the head and platitudes.
There is NO Scottish Tory party, it is just a puppet regional department of London.
ps. nothing personal re your good self and I can understand your frustration, much better to help get independence and then you can work for a real conservative party.
If YES doesn't win in September it will be because Eck and the YESNP failed not because the pro union parties cheated the Scots.
The Scots voters are capable of making up their own minds. If they want independence they will vote for it. If they don't, they wont. I would prefer not to live in a country which is not a member of the EU, NATO, has to establish its own currency but that is me. If my fellow Scots want that, I wont bad mouth them for doing so and will do my best to make an independent Scotland a success. I wont carp in the background because my arguments failed!
[edit: my bit begins here]
As I pointed out yesterday (you may have missed it) you're using the distorted FPTP voting figures for the UK General Eelection where Scots vote disproportionately and tactically for Labour and LD to keep the Tories out of the UK Parliament. A better comparison is the Scottish Parliament where the Tories are a minority party fighting over 3rd/4th place with the LDs - though, as I have also said in the past, still with a rather stronger representation than the distorting effect of Westminster voting patterns implies (otter rather than panda territory, in reality). What is so interesting about the Survation and pother recent polls is the increase in UK GE voting intention for the SNP - still early days and still ;bobbing up and down but at times around the 5 percentage points over Labour to win a majority under FPTP. I would be very worried if I were Scottish Labour.
As I pointed out yesterday (you may have missed it) you're using the distorted FPTP voting figures for the UK General Eelection where Scots vote disproportionately and tactically for Labour and LD to keep the Tories out of the UK Parliament. A better comparison is the Scottish Parliament where the Tories are a minority party fighting over 3rd/4th place with the LDs - though, as I have also said in the past, still with a rather stronger representation than the distorting effect of Westminster voting patterns implies (otter rather than panda territory, in reality). What is so interesting about the Survation and pother recent polls is the increase in UK GE voting intention for the SNP - still early days and still ;bobbing up and down but at times around the 5 percentage points over Labour to win a majority under FPTP. I would be very worried if I were Scottish Labour.
Carnyx, I agree , the natives are restless and change is in the air. Labour are heading for trouble. In recent survation poll Labour voters trusted Cameron more than Lamont , how bad can that be in Scotland.
To be fair given how relatively many people don't know who she is IIRC from a survey last year, the figures are probably not that different in reality (unless they corrected for that) - but it is still pretty startling.
Och wee Malky - one doesn't rise to your obvious bait. I have noticed a shift from talk of the Sindy ref to talk of the post No win "reckoning" and how the SNP will benefit - speaks volumes.
Cameron has been fairly disciplined in this respect but has been dragged in from time to time. He will need to be even more disciplined after May. The tories just might gain one or two percent banging on about Europe. They will lose 5-10 and any chance of a victory.
If Nigel Farage, resigned the leadership or, god forbid, died tomorrow, UKIP would still go on. It's time has come, as, up to as many as 25% of the electorate, now see through the Lab/Lib/Con, con on the British people. As time goes on more and more people will see through the merry-go-round that modern politics has become. UKIP will have it's up's and down's but the die is cast.
As I pointed out yesterday (you may have missed it) you're using the distorted FPTP voting figures for the UK General Eelection where Scots vote disproportionately and tactically for Labour and LD to keep the Tories out of the UK Parliament. A better comparison is the Scottish Parliament where the Tories are a minority party fighting over 3rd/4th place with the LDs - though, as I have also said in the past, still with a rather stronger representation than the distorting effect of Westminster voting patterns implies (otter rather than panda territory, in reality). What is so interesting about the Survation and pother recent polls is the increase in UK GE voting intention for the SNP - still early days and still ;bobbing up and down but at times around the 5 percentage points over Labour to win a majority under FPTP. I would be very worried if I were Scottish Labour.
Go back to 2009 and look at the Scottish Westminster VI polls From April 2008 to May 2009 there were 11 polls with SNP VI between 27 and 43% average was 32% . Not a good predictor for the 2010 actual results were they ?
Tom Gordon @ScottishPol 30 mins
Auditorium at Scottish Tory conf has shrunk overnight. Hi tech screens. Obviously expecting a small crowd today
Tom Gordon @ScottishPol 7 mins
Chair tells conf Philip Hammond delayed from airport so wee break, but Tory staff being ordered to find more people to fill seats
Tom Gordon @ScottishPol 6 mins
"We need more people in, we need more people in" - Scottish Tory conf organiser overheard talking to staff before Philip Hammond comes on
Andrew Redmond Barr @AndrewRBarr 14 hrs
It's been said already, but worth repeating: a Yes lecture by Tariq Ali drew larger crowds today than P.M.'s speech in Edinburgh. #IndyRef
A few years ago, I met at a conference some of the top staff at UCLA, had some very interesting conversations and exchanged cards etc.
Last night had a phone call from UCLA and a confirmatory email asking me to be a visiting Prof (sic) for a year - or more if I can - on the subject of International Relations with especially reference to Trade, JVs, etc.
The terms offered are huge and include own residence with private garden pool etc - also would I be 'warden' of a small women's hall, full of women students indulged by over-rich parents.
The challenge is almost irresistible but I know nothing about UCLA - know Harvard and MIT quite well.
Also know little of LA, was a guest at Hollywood for a few weeks some years ago but that is an unreal picture.
Does any PBer have experience of UCLA?
Then we will have a choice other than just SNP as at present
ps will be even bigger challenge for BBC to hide the tumbleweed today
Of course I made the relevant phone calls to check up.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2014/03/pathetic-lives-of-putins-american-dupes.html
In all honesty, I think it's also partly that we've exhausted the "Will it be Yes?", and "What happens between Yes and Indy Day?" and are moving on to other permutations of the events tree.
But I'll tell you something that really did surprise me this morning, and also balances your perception. Ruth Lamont, leader of the Scottish Tories, actually said up front that she'd hope to lead the Scottish Tories in an independent Scotland. And that is at the time of the current Tory conference!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26577851
11.37 If the area border areas of China and Central Asia are indeed where MH370 has gone - as is the most likely scenario according reported briefings by unnamed Malaysian officials - attention will naturally turn to western China’s Muslim Uighur ethnic minority.
Uighurs were allegedly responsible for an attack in the south-western city of Kunming on March 1 that left 29 people dead and injured about 140 others."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10687223/Malaysia-Airlines-MH370-plane-crash-live.html
They are very serious people & it's a fast up and coming school - probably #3 on the West coast after Stanford and Berkeley & has a very good MBA programme as well.
If you do take it, let me know & we'll see if we can drag you down to Laguna one day for lunch
Only thing that ensures more power is YES.
I've been offered a cup of tea by my wife - this could lead to me needing to wash up the cup, drinking it and purchasing a biscuit to go with it but not necessarily in that order.
The question - rich tea or choccy biccie?
It is reported that there was an Uighur on board the flight who is "of interest" to investigators.
See: http://bit.ly/1iDN76D
Just one of many speculative theories.
I see PPRuNE's main page on this has now reached 6 million views. They've started an alternative thread for chat and speculation:
http://www.pprune.org/spectators-balcony-spotters-corner/536056-mh370-chat-speculation.html
This is the main thread:
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-201.html
It is predicated on the assumption that:
Vladimir Putin’s Russia follows no model except Russian nationalism. To the extent it employs a non-nationalist philosophy, its main idea is that gays have weakened Europe.
Yawn!
http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/article/1443730/full-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-passenger-list
•Mike Huckabee 18% [16%] (13%) (11%) {15%} [11%] (17%)
•Jeb Bush 15% [14%] (10%) (13%) {14%} [12%] (17%)
•Chris Christie 14% [13%] (19%) (13%) {14%} [14%] (21%)
•Rand Paul 14% [11%] (11%) (10%) {5%} [7%] (4%)
•Ted Cruz 11% [8%] (14%)
•Marco Rubio 6% [8%] (7%) (22%) {21%} [18%] (10%)
•Paul Ryan 5% [8%] (10%) (15%) {16%} [12%] (7%)
•Scott Walker 5% [6%] (4%)
•Bobby Jindal 4% [5%] (3%) (4%) {3%} (3%)
•Someone else/Not sure 9% [10%] (10%) (8%) {7%} [7%] (10%)
If Mike Huckabee was not a candidate for President in 2016, who would you support, given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker?
•Jeb Bush 21% [18%] (12%) {14%} [11%] (13%) {15%} [12%]
•Rand Paul 15% [13%] (12%) {16%} [17%] (16%) {14%} [17%]
•Chris Christie 14% [17%] (23%) {16%} [14%] (13%) {15%} [15%]
•Ted Cruz 13% [11%] (15%) {15%} [20%] (12%) {7%}
•Paul Ryan 9% [9%] (11%) {11%} [10%] (13%) {9%} [12%]
•Marco Rubio 8% [8%] (8%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {16%} [21%]
•Scott Walker 5% [7%] (6%) [3%]
•Bobby Jindal 5% [5%] (4%) {6%} [4%] (4%) {3%} [4%]
•Someone else/Not sure 10% [11%] (10%) {8%} [9%] (13%) {15%} [10%]
General Election
•Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {45%} [48%] (48%) {44%} {49%} [51%]
•Jeb Bush (R) 44% {43%} [43%] (39%) {41%} {43%} [37%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {45%} [42%] (44%) {43%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [44%]
•Chris Christie (R) 42% {43%} [45%] (39%) {42%} [44%] (42%) {41%} [42%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {46%} {46%} (50%) {50%} [53%]
•Paul Ryan (R) 43% {44%} {44%} (43%) {44%} [39%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 47% {46%} [48%] (49%) {47%} [51%] (49%)
•Rand Paul (R) 42% {43%} [43%] (37%) {39%} [41%] (43%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 49% {46%} [48%]
•Mike Huckabee (R) 42% {43%} [42%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {45%} [51%] (49%) {49%} [51%]
•Marco Rubio (R) 40% {40%} [41%] (42%) {41%} [37%
]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 51% {47%} [49%] (50%)
•Ted Cruz (R) 40% {41%} [41%] (33%)
•Mike Huckabee (R) 46%
•Joe Biden (D) 41%
•Mike Huckabee (R) 44%
•Elizabeth Warren (D) 33%
This after all is the man who claimed one of the reasons he hated George W Bush was because the public in general didn't share his hatred of him. Hardly the greatest exercise in logical thinking in the world.
I continue to believe you are astute just as I consider to believe that Chait - of whom I have read almost every article he ever wrote for New Republic - is quite possibly one of the worst political commentators in modern US history.
What about passenger number 44 listed as HOU/BO?
I can imagine him opening the flight cabin door and announcing himself in the manner of our very own Bond_James_Bond as:
"Hou, Bo Hou".
Something I've noticed about the Tories is the way they address the problem of UKIP through a purely EU perspective, referenda, re-patriating powers, etc. The problem with this is that, I'd say, to most of the huge surge in UKIP support, the EU features way down their list of priorities. One example of this is social conservatism, which has no party advocating it (except UKIP).
So, the Tories will pick the issue that suits them to attack UKIP, rather than the issues which are salient to UKIP supporters.
Finishing third in a national election virtually guarantees this reaction.
It has been a bit of both to be fair.
PPRuNe is great for analysis of data put into the public domain by mainstream journalists. Excellent for sorting the wheat from the chaff.
But some credit must go to Andy Pasztor, the WSJ journalist who was first to leak the Inmarsat tracked flight path story based on insider briefing from his contacts in US flight investigation and law enforcement agencies.
The first thing the PM would do is secure Faslane, encourage an Edinburgh referendum and then send the tanks into the borders.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014/03/interpol-looking-at-35-year-old-uighur-passenger-on-mh370/
A key event could be the Clegg vs Farage encounter and then we have the effect of the referendum policies at the GE. First up the April 2nd event. Farage has all the time to prepare against a pre-occupied Clegg with a diary full of Govt meetings and papers. Farage has no excuse in not wiping the floor with Clegg and yet... Will Farage really knuckle down and do the hard work in preparing his challenge? If Farage does then the Cleggasm uplift for the Euros may not happen and Farage's team will sweep the EC elections. My wallet hopes so, but my head harbours doubts about Farage's professionalism.
Think about it how many avenues of suspicion on board the plane are being thought of...
1. 2 confirmed passengers on stolen passports
2. 20+ employees of Freescale Semiconductor
3. Malaysia Airlines engineer among the passenger list
4. At least one passenger from the Xinjiang region
5. First Officer being a rule breaker
6. Captain having sim at home
Some of these, maybe all, will turn out to be coincidence or somewhere in the list is what is going on...
But that so many avenues seem like feasible possibilities is merely because such little information has been made public.
I have not heard any official information about any possible electronic failure, so I think they've been on the human interference route since the outset.
There are some to whom that is all that matters.
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/27/how-tories-can-win-next-election/
'Scotland: Foolish ‘No’ campaign is morphing into the ‘Nasty’ campaign
..In fact, the idea is so stupid, I’m wondering if Theresa May – who holds a job much less powerful than the media often suggests – has been suckered by her putative ‘leadership’ rivals.
I’m a unionist in broad terms, but I’m finding the dishonesty and negativity of the ‘No’ campaign – the way it treats Scots like dummies – increasingly offensive. Ironically, in view of Theresa May’s own comments on the subject in the past, the No campaign is becoming the Nasty campaign.'
http://tinyurl.com/nmpr58e