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Sharp movement to Jenrick after yesterday’s vote – politicalbetting.com
Sharp movement to Jenrick after yesterday’s vote – politicalbetting.com
The chart shows the betting movement over the last 48 hours. I think the value is with Cleverly and Mel Stride whose price I’d expect to move massively if he finishes ahead of Tom Tugendhat next week in the second round.
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No good answer that I can see to the question, why is the Conservative Party likely to choose him as leader?
Copyright infringement costs companies billions and the money ends up with terrorists and criminals.
There are enough incidents in his past though to raise questions about his ethics and integrity that I'd struggle to get past.
I have never been materially active in politics before, but this time I think civilization as we know it is on the line.
If we want to preserve freedom and a meritocracy in America, then Trump must win.
Cleverly is at least amiable, and Stride can interview well, but both are at best lacklustre.
But it has to be one of the 5, and they are fishing in a much smaller pool of 120 possibilities.
https://x.com/TimesRadio/status/1831309657266135143
Disney's lawyers will have the content taken down for violating their copyright.
Also 'civilization as we know it is on the line' is a better issue for Harris than Trump.
Jenrick may likely win because he isn't Badenoch, or Tugendhat, or Stride, or Cleverly.
On this basis of choosing a leader I'd probably go for Cleverly, as the least obviously objectionable, but the electorate in this case Matt have reasons to object to him too, that they don't have to Jenrick.
And walking away from government six months early gives him sone insulation from the great election fiasco.
That he's a hollow vessel who looks set to head the Conservatives to a very dark place without even realising what he's doing is a detail.
And it took him long enough to just do those.
It needs to go off and clean itself up a bit. Come back when it can genuinely say it is better than Labour.
Is Jenrick the guy to lead them through this? Go ahead. Surprise me.
& https://www.npr.org/2024/09/05/nx-s1-5100829/russia-election-influencers-youtube
You suck at the political pundit thing.
Also not an ideal leader for the Tory party.
On the other hand...
Oh please, oh please!
It's basically all about navel gazing, party structure, procedural changes, candidate selection, and steadfastly refuses to contemplate any of the policy disasters of the last decade.
The comments are not universally supportive...
"(1) Harris is slightly underperforming the model’s benchmark for a convention bounce. Harris is, in fact, polling a bit better now than before the DNC — but only a bit better, with a 3.5-point lead in our national polling average as of Sunday versus 2.3 points before the convention. The model’s baseline expectation was a bounce of more like 2 points. By the model’s logic, she’s gone from a lead of 2.3 points to a convention-bounce adjusted lead of 1.5 points. That’s not a game-changing difference, but it’s enough to show up in the bottom line.
(2) Kennedy dropping out of the race. We initially expected this to hurt Harris by 0.5 points or less, given that RFK Jr. drew more Trump voters than Harris voters but only slightly more. However, it’s plausible that the impact is larger with RFK having not just dropped out but endorsed Trump.
Given the timing of Kennedy’s announcement, this factor is all but impossible to disentangle from the convention bounce or lack thereof. Our model run on Friday, August 23 — the day just after Harris’s acceptance speech and the day that Kennedy dropped out, but before we switched over to the RFK-less version of the model — showed Harris ahead by 4.7 points in our national average. That suggested she was on her way to a typical convention bump of 2 or 2.5 points — or possibly more, given that the impact of the convention probably hadn’t yet been fully realized in the polling.
Now, our polling averages are designed to be very aggressive after big events like conventions, and maybe 4.7 points was an overestimate since it was drawn from relatively few polls. Occam’s Razor, though, is that Harris — who gave an effective speech — was on her way to a typical but not extraordinary convention bounce, and then Kennedy’s dropout/endorsement ate into those gains. I somewhat regret the framing of my story from Aug. 24, which warned that the model could be running a “little hot” on Harris because the impact of RFK hadn’t really been factored in yet, but had a headline that emphasized how there hadn’t been much change yet. If I had to do it over again, I’d instead headline the story with something that underscored the need for a wait-and-see approach.
(3) Comparatively poor polling for Harris in Pennsylvania, which is disproportionately important given Pennsylvania’s likelihood of being the pivotal state. As a result, the Electoral College forecast has swung more than the popular vote forecast."
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-no-normal-in-this-election
A LOT.
https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1831556200728498267
It is impossible to support Trump and the American right, and to support Ukraine. The two are utterly incompatible viewpoints.
CCHQ becomes a “ghost ship” as post election cash crunch hits. Big financial headache facing next Tory leader - with
@LOS_Fisher
https://x.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1831583817179476242
Almost always it turns out to be instructive.
Integrity must come first.
https://x.com/DrewPavlou/status/1831487558720831774
Tim Pool hysterically banging table shouting UKRAINE IS THE ENEMY OF THIS COUNTRY
He didn’t know he was working for a company that took $10 million USD in black bag payments from Russia guys. Horrible coincidence. We’ve all been there
tldr:
- The model assumes a convention bounce that will fade. This means if Harris maintains her current polling lead she will soon be favorite again in the model.
- Harris got a roughly 1% lower than 'expected' convention bounce - it's plausible to explain this by the timing of RFK dropping out and endorsing Trump.
Mr. B, I know the name Tim Pool but have never watched him. Does he give any reasoning for why Ukraine is the enemy of 'this' (US, presumably) country?
Nate Silver is worse than I am at statistics, and I'm an ignoramus.
FWIW, what evidence there is (and it's pretty patchy) suggests that both conventions didn't have any great effect at all in terms of 'bounce'.
And if you look at the historical record (which again represents not a lot of data) convention bounces range from double figures to zero.
Incorporating an adjustment, for what you guess a convention bounce might be, into what's supposed to be a statistical model, is just garbage.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y8z15wyz6o
https://x.com/tarapalmeri/status/1831481219265261870
There's a noticeable trait in many people who try to make their fortunes out of social media - they become more extreme in whichever direction over time, and any morals or integrity they had goes flying out of the window. If an extreme view gets more clicks, then they'll become more extreme.
In fact, they're not really thinking about the Tories at all. I'd be amazed if the general public knew anything about the swings and roundabouts of this election.
When the time comes and Labour's decisions are no longer given the benefit of the doubt and people head to the ballot box, seeking to give Labour a bit of a "second term" kick [most will assume Labour will get a second term, after a whopping majority like that regardless of the nuance] they are perhaps more likely to vote LD as the traditional vehicle of protest, then they are to return to the Tory fold.
The Tories' best chance of recovery is if Labour do OK, and the two party hegemony holds up.
They’ve attached the SAVE Act to the Spending Bill . Essentially that act requires proof of citizenship to vote.
Its already illegal to try and vote if you’re not a US citizen . The Dems oppose the SAVE as it could disenfranchise some voters who are legal and more likely minorities .
Tomorrow there’s the latest jobs report which will influence whether the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter or half a percent .
So there are a few variables now which could cause some changes in the polling . Today we’re likely to hear whether RFK jnr remains on the NC ballot . The judge has to make a quick decision as mail in ballots are due to start going out tomorrow .
Because reasons.
Cameron:
A good man, who was reversing the party's decline (after Howard's good work). I felt he would be a good PM.
May:
I did not like aspects of her time as Home Secretary; then again, I can say that for virtually every HS. That role is somewhat of a poisoned chalice, and I viewed the fact she survived so long in that role as a positive sign of her abilities.
Johnson:
Despite quite liking his character, I felt his time as MoL showed he would be a terrible PM. I was against him becoming PM from before he re-entered parliament.
Truss:
She was barely on my radar before or during her PMship.
Sunak:
He had an incredibly difficult task during Covid, and whatever he did could be criticised. But I could not see him being able to steady a ship that had already been sunk by his two predecessors.
The next one:
I am Meh! about the lot. Not one I would want as PM; and I have no idea which might best be able to rebuild the party ready for their successor.
You’re right it happens in every direction, even towards the centre. “Centrism” and liberalism on social media is much more assured and militant than it used to be. People follow the engagement.
Worse the membership is going to select a right wing leader who is likely to be completely toxic to one of those potential voter groups and who will have never been opposition before so will not know how different the job being Leader of the Opposition is.
FPT: A couple of points:
1 - AIUI (am I wrong?) it was started by a household appliance. I don't see that it has addressed for safety of such - but I have not read all 1700 pages.
2 - Quite a number of changes have already been made around regulation. A good piece on the Today programme 6:16am this morning. Link will expire quickly.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_fourfm
Funny how Americans are hardening into ever more solid mutually hostile blocs, while the British electorate seems more volatile and non-partisan than ever. We are not the same.
I think the Conservative problem is structural rather than purely political. Adjusting policy positions won't solve it for them.
For 2024 15 EU countries are forecast to be above 2% growth. They are all Eastern European, except for Malta, Ireland and Luxembourg. The next down 3 are Spain, Greece and Portugal.
From a brand perspective I would now prefer literally any other US, European, Japanese or Korean brand to Tesla. So assuming there's two cars at the same price point and quality, Tesla loses.
And that's before you consider Chinese competitors for those choosing on price alone, and questions over build quality / length of cycle for new car models.
Appealing to 45% of Americans and 10% of Europeans is not the way to build a dominant brand that it was once predicted to be.
It makes arsewipes like Musk, who happened to be in the right place at the right time and put all Daddy’s money on red, think they are uniquely talented and insightful
The polling on party support and Trump shows the gulf that exists between Tory and Reform voters.
That said I do think they need some charisma. Hence why Badenoch might be the best bet. Isam’s charisma theory makes sense in this sort of context.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/articles/c14zydg3754o
Olympic pole vault champion Armand Duplantis beat 400m hurdler Karsten Warholm in a 100m exhibition race in Zurich.
Sweden's Duplantis clocked 10.37 seconds after leading out of the blocks and was able to stare down his friend as he crossed the line.
Norwegian Warholm finished in 10.47 seconds, with both athletes recording personal bests.
But it makes no sense to assume any figure at all for a convention bounce in a model. They are as variable and unpredictable as any given poll.
Free trade / open borders makes great sense when you are top dog.
Less clear when you are in the middle of the pack
https://news.archer.com/archer-aviation-unveils-planned-los-angeles-air-taxi-network-ahead-of-major-sporting-events
SANTA CLARA, CA, August 8, 2024 – Archer Aviation Inc. announced today plans to launch a Los Angeles air mobility network—seeking to change how Southern California residents and visitors commute, travel and spend their free time.
The goal is for passengers to be able to go to a nearby vertiport, or vertical take-off and landing location, and then fly 10-20 minutes in Archer’s Midnight aircraft to their destination of choice within the network—saving hours versus sitting in traffic.
Archer’s planned network includes vertiports at key locations such as Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), Orange County, Santa Monica, Hollywood Burbank, Long Beach and Van Nuys. Archer’s goal is to begin its LA network operations by as early as 2026.
As part of its network planning, Archer is coordinating with the Los Angeles Rams to collaborate on potential exclusive vertiports at Woodland Hills and at Hollywood Park, the near 300-acre district centered around the 3.1 million square-foot SoFi Stadium. ..
..Midnight, Archer’s piloted, four-passenger electric aircraft, will play a crucial role in this network. Midnight is designed to offer passengers a sustainable, low-noise, and safe alternative to ground transportation:
Travels at speeds up to 150 mph, turning hour-long ground commutes into minutes in the air
Designed for back-to-back flights of 20-50 miles with minimal charge time in between
100x quieter than a helicopter at cruising altitudes
Redundant systems across the aircraft allowing Archer to target similar levels of safety as commercial airliners
Designed to carry a pilot, up to four passengers and carry-on luggage..
Also, one of the mums, who is an accountant, slightly peeved at all the work she suddenly has on her plate trying to liquidate people's assets before CGT is increased. ("what did they think the Labour Party would do?", she said, wearily).
There will always be small fires, dropped cigarette, shorting electrical appliance etc, they shouldn't result in a raging inferno.
There's a very good Radio 4 podcast on Grenfell.
Plus of course it looks like Badenoch and Cleverly lent Stride a few votes to knock out Patel which will now go back
Wait, is he serious?
Pastiche in an exemption since 2014, which should I think cover it.
If Jenrick is the answer, WTF was the question..?
Post-Left Watch
@PostLeftWatch
George Galloway, former RT host: "In 21 years, Putin has completely transformed Russia. Russia is a glorious success story. I know the enemies don't want to hear that, but that requires them not to look at the footage, freely available, of what development is like in Russia."
https://x.com/PostLeftWatch/status/1831504566699094315
Only a bounder wears a hat indoors unless you're a monarch or it involves some arcane sex game.
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/presidential-documents-archive-guidebook/party-platforms-and-nominating-conventions/the
Ranges from Bill Clinton's 16% in 1992 (Carter was the only other nominee to crack double figures - both were fairly unknown) down to Kerry's minus 1% in 2004.
(The numbers aren't exactly comparable between different elections, and the sources for the figures changes.)