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The SNP haven’t gone away you know – politicalbetting.com
The SNP haven’t gone away you know – politicalbetting.com
Constituency 2/4SNP 33%Lab 30%Con 12%Reform 9%LD 5%Green; and others picking up 2%
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(Can a good Muslim be a Scotch expert?)
Never drank it but know enough about it to be an expert.
Like never drink lager, Guinness, or absinthe.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-operation-branchform-4742082
If good jobs in banks still existed, that would need a degree, not four O-levels (GCSEs to younger PBers; yes, you could leave school and start a career at 16).
Good morning everyone - a sunny day in Nottinghamshire, and it is nearly bilberry season.
If the SNP narrowly win most seats I could see the next Scottish Conservative leader keeping Swinney in power therefore provided he rules out pushing indyref2. After all with Forbes as Finance Minister an SNP government would be arguably right of a Scottish Labour government
the most studied undergraduate degree of all now, which didn't exist 50 years ago as most studied a business when they first joined it as a junior or middle manager after A levels or even O levels
The good news for them is that they are no longer absolutely insolvent. The not so good news is that their accumulated funds amounted to £441k at the end of a year with no major elections in it. In the current year they have had a general election. In the year to December 2023 their Parliamentary levy raised £322,900. I suspect this includes both Parliaments but it is clearly going to take a heavy hit in the current year. The accounts also do not reflect the monies received by the individual MPs to employ staff and office costs.
There was an increase in the declared income from £4.25m to £4.75m but this apparent improvement is more than made up by the fact that a branch levy charged the branches £670K compared with nothing in the previous year. If you strip that out then income actually fell. This levy is also reflected in the creditors figure (since in the previous year the central party had simply not paid the share of membership fees that should have been credited to them) which fell from £(1.23m) to £(640k). In short the entire apparent improvement in their balance sheet, plus a bit more, arises from an internal transfer of funds from the branches to the central party which did not involve actual payment of cash but a reduction in their debts to those branches.
Mr Murrell is still due £60K.
The fact that this apparent improvement comes from these internal transfers and effective writing off of internal debt is reflected that the cash in hand amounted £42k, down fractionally from £46k the year before. How that was supposed to pay for a GE campaign is a mystery that will only be solved next year.
Your last paragraph will not happen
The idea the SNP will rule out pushing for Indyref2 shows complete ignorance of their DNA and reason for their existence
They were pushing for independence when I lived in Berwick in 1954 and nothing will change as you suggest and maybe you are just wish thinking
It sounds like another likely fabrication-from-the-hip by the Underpants Emperor in his Basement at midnight.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8rx0mdgpnno
Yousaf's position was that the Westminster election was supposed to be a second referendum because if the SNP had won a majority of Scottish seats then they would have taken that as a basis for negotiating independence from the UK government (who would have ignored them, but there we are). The point was made moot by their failure to win a majority of seats and in 2026, unless Labour get a lot more unpopular (which is, of course, possible, especially when you look at the headlines today) they will not have a majority committed to independence in Holyrood either. In these circumstances their main object will be to stay in power, as it has been since 2015.
Even at the very nadir of Thatcher’s popularity in the 1979-1983 parliament, she was always very careful to sell the ‘why’ and to talk about what she saw as the good times ahead.
The doom and gloom from Labour is not the “national renewal” message they campaigned on. They did not fight an election, as the Tories did in 2010, to get a mandate for unpopular (even if necessary) tax and spend decisions. They said very little, and got a huge majority out of it but now the chips are down I still think they will regret not saying enough of this at the time of the campaign.
Of some relevance to the header, I told her it would be fine as I'd read Anas's lips about there being no austerity under Labour and Sir Keir had promised power bills being reduced by 'up to £300'.
Independence is currently a notion more popular than the parties proposing it. Which is hardly surprising. The idea of an independent Scotland governed by the nepotistic crooks and chancers proposing it relegates it to an idea whose time is not now.
And the election is water under the bridge. If a government with a huge majority and plenty of time can't tell hard truths, who can?
What matters is how it all looks in 2028/9. And if the Conservatives mess up their leadership selection (by picking a leader who, in your guts/you know she's nuts), you can make that 2033/4.
I agree that governments can afford hits to their popularity early in a Parliament. But if they are not able to sell the reasons why and the worthiness of the end result, there is also the risk that a government hits a death spiral from which it finds it hard to recover. The messaging is crucial here - and I think they are struggling to find the right tone.
Of course, if things get particularly grim under Starmer the idea that we might do better on our own might gain some traction but the next peak for the SNP is probably at least a decade away.
The reality is that for every £7 the government spends one is borrowed from our children. If this money was going into infrastructure, schools, hospitals, roads and other capital investments that they would get the benefit of that might be excusable but it is in fact going to paying current expenditure in the main because we think we are entitled to a higher standard of living as a country than we actually earn.
Rebalancing the public finances now is going to be very nearly as challenging as it was in 2010 but, as others have pointed out, we have been sold a somewhat different fantasy.
Is Starmer up to the challenge? Remains to be seen, but anyone interested in the fortunes of the country has to hope so at this stage.
The most patriotic thing the opposition can do might be to stay as divided and unelectable as possible for a while. Maybe they should elect Kemi B in the national interest.
Even more public service cuts would likely have been on the table .
Brits to be blunt want great public services and don’t want to pay for them . Even with the alleged highest taxes for 70 years the tax burden on people is far lower than most other European countries .
Until Brits wake up and accept reality then we’ll continue to have governments peddling the fantasy that you can have low taxes and great public services .
As a nation - and I do squarely blame the Conservative Party for this - we now see all spending as "cost" and not "benefit". "Who will pay" instead of who will benefit. And zero care for the cost of not spending - as if it is a zero sum decision.
You say that we're borrowing a pound from our children. But what are we leaving our children? Towns in ruin, public services and infrastructure gone, a desperate lack of hope as grinding crushing poverty reduces millions to a life of just about managing. We need to refloat our economy so that towns can actually be viable again, letting businesses flourish and having customers for those businesses actually having spare cash to pay for their goods or services. If everyone is broke we all lose.
What happened to the Tories? We need the return of capitalism and enterprise, and you lot keep wanting to cut to zero.
That would include discussing public sector productivity and the trade deficit.
And even if he is, is he also willing to do some hard actions ?
The rich and property owners need to pay more.
The old and poor need to receive less spending.
The workers need to work longer and increase their productivity.
So far the some oldies have lost WFA and some public sector workers have had a nice pay rise (without any productivity commitments).
More of a step back than a step forward.
The Conservatives may still go backwards, given how good the 2021 results were, but they’ll be ahead in NEV share.
Again, lets do capitalism. I have a food shop with old-fashioned open chillers. A fortune in cash literally evaporating off into the air. I could save an awful lot of money on energy bills by investing in new closed door chillers.
"Who would pay for that, how much debt are we in" say the Tories of 2024. But go back 20 years and the Tories of 2004 would be "yes, absolutely. Borrow. Invest. Gain a Return on that Investment". Capitalism.
It is the exact same thing with the country. Borrowing to give people free cash? No. Borrowing to invest to significantly cut operating expenses and expand the economy? Absolutely.
Seriously, today's remaining Tories need their heads examining.
The temperature here (per Alexa) is 13C, which is just about ideal.
Shouldn't cats have a summer fur coat (and, presumably, no knickers)?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbdidVAbxhk
Not all spreadsheet cuts actually end up saving money, indeed I suspect that most of those in the last ten years have ended up costing us more.
Couple of years ago I ran into one of my old schoolmates; hadn't seen him for best part of 70 years. As one did then he'd left school at 16 with a clutch of decent O levels, including Spanish, which he'd enjoyed, and gone straight into a bank and after a while into the South American branch, where his Spanish was, of course, very useful. He told me he'd had a very fulfilling and enjoyable career, with lots of travelling.
https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/
The inevitable happened - the astronauts are not going home on Boeing Starliner. Instead, they are staying on ISS until Feb and going home on a SpaceX Dragon.
Huge slap in the face for Boeing.
Sarwar knows that under PR he will be hard pushed to end up with more seats than the SNP for Holyrood 2026. He expects to be reliant on the Tories, which is why he has been trialling Labour & Tory alliances taking power in multiple councils where the SNP is the largest party to see the reaction. Negative reaction has been minimal, so game on for Sarwar.
The problems that the SNP face include: electoral weariness after 19 years, shortage of funds, the police potentially still dragging out their investigations, perceived failures in government. Their biggest problem remains the ludicrous bias in the media, especially BBC Scotland News, which would not survive any genuine examination of its supposed impartiality.
In their favour will be comparisons with Labour run Wales, which has been badly run by Labour throughout the century. I expect this to result in a strong swing to Plaid Cymru for Senedd 2026.
The chances of Labour being as popular in 2026 as at the GE are low, especially given their unpromising start. Significant underlying support for independence is likely to inflate the SNP vote relative to the GE.
So, the SNP have indeed not gone away, and are the likeliest to have the largest number of seats after 2026. Who will be the First Minister is not so clear.
Big client offices likely to be repopulated the week after next. A busy program of activities coming up driving activities for 3 of their businesses. The bit where client business A says one specific project can't be done in less than 6 months and business B insists we do it in 6 weeks will be fun. My project work liaising between them for the needs of business C does get bemusing at times. As does the time difference now having to work with people based in Mexico and Abu Dhabi at the opposite ends of the time spectrum.
My YouTube channel is getting stepped up from 4 videos a month to 6. A stack of rushes to edit for various pieces, a few boxes now delivered containing items to install / shoot review videos / upload. All get me income via referral programs. A Big Push through the autumn to drive towards 10k subscribers and my £1k a month revenue target.
Our new toys business goes live next weekend. Need to shoot the sponsorship segment for next Friday's Tesla video (as one business is now sponsoring the other) - that video itself needs editing together and will take a while. And tweak the webstore / do some basic SEO tagging etc etc. And social media needs creating as haven't done them yet either
Wifey's shop still struggling - as are other independent shops in the industry, local Aberdeenshire shops / hospitality in general because the economy is still a mess. Needs some input from me on finance stuff.
And I assume at some point I get to sleep, see the kids etc. Hence being on PB a lot less these days.
https://arstechnica.com/security/2024/08/shocker-french-make-surprise-arrest-of-telegram-founder-at-paris-airport/
Founder of Telegram arrested in France
For all that they want it to be about Independence, and for all that they can parrot a list of Great Things they have done (all of which were a decade ago), the basic questions people ask are why is everything being cut, why are services so bad, why haven't you done any of the infrastructure projects you promised, why is my town so run down.
The answer to any of those isn't "vote SNP". They will get an absolute kicking. The polls lag - the fear of being seen to be against the SNP and thus "against Scotland" is real. But they go there in the end in the general - that finalish poll showing the SNP crushed to 10 seats was widely derided and yet was pretty accurate.
Can Starmer walk the tightrope and keep things running with very little growth. Before the election I thought he probably would. I thought he would make "tough" decisions such as telling the doctors and train drivers to F Off. Maybe after this initital spree he will.
His lack of generosity financially is understandable. His lack of generosity of spirit is more of a surprise. If the Guardian article is a fair sample of his intended big speech then he ought to rewrite it from scratch. Those who fail to give respect to those who oppose them gain little respect for themselves. How different from say Alistair Darling.
Though to be fair despite all the warnings, she did hugely outperform expectations, I was counting on a year or so of her just being really useless.
A critical feature is that this is a PR not FPTP election. The SNP may get, as you put it, "an absolute kicking" but that still has the strong potential to leave them as the largest party, though possibly not in power. If that happened, it would be the first time that the largest party at Holyrood would not be in power, but I do not rule that out.
I don't see much more downside in SNP support, and negligible further upside in Labour support since the GE.
I think he's unlikely to do worse than his predecessors and now opposition but he's the one in power and perception is everything here.
Peel Ports and Macquarie said to be among interested parties as Canadian owner prepares for auction of Teesside-based operator with 1,400 staff across 11 UK locations
https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/bidders-line-up-for-brookfields-12bn-sale-of-pd-ports-jxt6jm3zd (£££)
British infrastructure that had previously been sold to foreigners is now up for sale again, possibly to Macquarie of water scandal fame.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/25/priti-tote-bags-kemi-sweatshirts-and-jenrick-mugs-tory-candidates-roll-out-the-merch-in-bid-to-be-new-leader
Leadership candidates should sell avatars, which Tories could use to show whom they support when posting on PB.
The last person in government to make proper decisions was Osborne. All he was able to completely undone by big spending Boris and Truss. The narrative of Truss as a cutter is odd since her fuel support levy was the biggest market interference since the 70s fuel crisis.
Scotland also has a much more pronounced urban/rural split than England. In rural areas, you could have more interesting 3-way battles between the Tories, Lib Dems and SNP.
The subscribers per revenue number is interesting.
Ballot Box Scotland
@BallotBoxScot
By-Election Result analysis: Armadale and Blackridge
An unsurprising Labour victory emerges from a very surprising set of figures, including big surges for Reform UK and the Independence for Scotland Party; a real weird one, let me tell you!
https://x.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1826928287370596357
I have no problem with borrowing to genuinely invest, provided that you can be confident that investment is going to produce a return in the future. So, in your neck of the woods, dualling the A96 would be an investment. It would encourage businesses who could be confident of getting their goods to market. It would save lives and it would stop people wasting their potentially productive time in one queue after another.
I think we need a lot more investment but I am not so sure we can afford to borrow a lot more to pay for it. That is why I think the government should be looking to cut current expenditure and unnecessary benefits for the well off to create the space and cash for that investment. But what did Reeves do? The first thing she did was to cancel a series of investments with growth potential so she could increase public pay.
As I have said before I do not envy her her task. Growth, inflation, employment were all good to very good when she took over but our public expenditure is at least £100bn out of line with our income. Its a very difficult challenge.
Some years ago, I was working for an alt-bank. They had development teams in Canada, US, London, Eastern Europe and India. As a result of mergers and acquisitions.
Because they were all working on the same software, it was a perfect opportunity for some analysis. So they ranked locations according to the cost per *feature* successfully delivered.
London was the cheapest place to develop, by that metric, Eastern Europe was next. India was dead last. By a long way.
I'm not getting into returns on investments in even bigger roads than we have already, but I will note that many of them deliver nothing like the promised returns, any many less than the money tipped down the hole, and that investment in getting traffic off roads (ie active travel schemes) often deliver double or treble the returns.
With such a political hot potato, the obvious thing is to claim it needs a bit more time in the oven. This gives you time to move from the enquiry, retire, get promoted etc etc. Finishing the enquiry just gets you grief.
I am not a unionist.
As for elections, you see that “it’s impossible for any one party to win a majority”? Don’t lecture me about how the electoral system works, it’s a waste of your time.
The challenge for the SNP will be simple: why will people positively vote for them? The negative vote for them falls apart when the Tories aren’t in government. So they need to show the positive reasons why people need to keep voting for the party dismantling their public services and bringing their communities to rack and ruin and corruptly wasting money whilst achieving nothing.
Final point. Your “I can’t see much more downside in SNP support” line. It’s hopium. Once people break their link from the party they usually vote for it’s very easy for them to not vote for them. Ask Labour about how that works.
If replicated by punters, this could well result in obvious value on the betting markets. I already sense right wing psychology being projected onto labour. Explanations for their motives and obvious misunderstanding of the dynamics at play.
The tele/speccie output, for example, seems really quite off-base and if they keep going* and take PB/punters with them, I can only see the betting markets becoming more irrational.
I might take up gambling again if/when the money starts flowing into the "Starmer is toast" markets.
*Important context: We are in the middle of a conservative leadership contest.
How about if other public sector workers demand an extra £4k for themselves ?