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Four weeks is a long time in politics – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Britain stopped buying mobile phones
    Soaring prices and a lack of meaningful innovation have created a rising tide of smartphone apathy"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/08/18/why-britain-stopped-buying-mobile-phones/

    "Why Britain stopped buying the Daily Telegraph.
    Soaring prices and a lurch to the batshit crazy right have created a rising tide of Telegraph apathy".
    Its my wife's birthday on 7th September and she has finally conceded that she needs a smartphone. Any recommendations? She needs to pick up emails and text messages from our needy kids, phone messages from her mother and the unending supply of agencies involved in her care and she likes some games like Candy crush. Nothing too fancy.
    iPhone SE. cheapest one.

    Think of it as the cheapest house on the nicest street.
    Yes, she loves her Ipads and the phone being able to speak to them would be helpful.
    @Sandpit is right in principle but the current iPhone SE is very outdated and due for an update soon, so of the current range that you can buy new, an iPhone 13 would be the best value.
    While it’s true that the iPhone range is about to be updated, if you want a phone for your emails and messages, rather than for shooting and editing video in the field, then the cheapest SE is more than good enough. Can’t say I’ve experienced battery trouble with them either, usually still 40-50% at the end of the day.

    What does kill the battery on any phone, is going into the countryside and areas of poor signal, as the phone turns its power up to try and get connected.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Oh dear, they gave her a microphone but no teleprompter.

    https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1825251408288862287

    "Our election is about understanding the importance of this beautiful country of ours in terms of what we stand for around the globe as a democracy. As a democracy, we know there's a duality to the nature of democracy. On the one hand, incredible strength when it is in tact. What it does for its people to protect and defend their rights. Incredibly strong. And incredibly fragile."

    As someone on Twitter said in reply:
    Best case: she’s drunk.
    Worst case: she isn’t.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,663
    TECHNE POLL OF CONSERVATIVE PARTY MEMBERS
    (per the Times)

    Cleverly 26
    Patel 20
    Badenoch 14
    Tugendhat 11
    Jenrick 10
    Stride 4

    Head to Heads:
    Cleverly 45, Patel 39
    Cleverly 49, Jenrick 28
    Cleverly 51, Badenoch 28
    Cleverly 54, Tugendhat 23
    Cleverly 59, Stride 15

    Date: 2-12 August
    Sample size: 805
    Poll was conducted by Cleverly campaign
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,546
    Sandpit said:

    Oh dear, they gave her a microphone but no teleprompter.

    https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1825251408288862287

    "Our election is about understanding the importance of this beautiful country of ours in terms of what we stand for around the globe as a democracy. As a democracy, we know there's a duality to the nature of democracy. On the one hand, incredible strength when it is in tact. What it does for its people to protect and defend their rights. Incredibly strong. And incredibly fragile."

    As someone on Twitter said in reply:
    Best case: she’s drunk.
    Worst case: she isn’t.

    You are REALLY desperate for Trump to win, IF you think this is some kind of horrible gaff.

    KH is making WAY more sense than DJT or his Mini-Me, the Recovering Hillbilly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,158
    edited August 19
    Sandpit said:

    Oh dear, they gave her a microphone but no teleprompter.

    https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1825251408288862287

    "Our election is about understanding the importance of this beautiful country of ours in terms of what we stand for around the globe as a democracy. As a democracy, we know there's a duality to the nature of democracy. On the one hand, incredible strength when it is in tact. What it does for its people to protect and defend their rights. Incredibly strong. And incredibly fragile."

    As someone on Twitter said in reply:
    Best case: she’s drunk.
    Worst case: she isn’t.

    I actually quite like it when she talks like this, (not being sarcastic). But I doubt the average swing voter in Pennsylvania is impressed by it much.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,440
    edited August 19
    I was just thinking, we still haven't heard anything about the insider betting investigations. How long can it possibly take?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,818

    I was just thinking, we still haven't heard anything about the insider betting investigations. How long can it possibly take?

    Yes, the gambling commission were very proactive before the election. But now it’s lost all its urgency. Funny that.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,546
    OF COURSE spelling gaffe as "gaff" is itself a gaffe, even in the Colonies.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,546
    RobD said:

    I was just thinking, we still haven't heard anything about the insider betting investigations. How long can it possibly take?

    Yes, the gambling commission were very proactive before the election. But now it’s lost all its urgency. Funny that.
    While investigations take time, think you guys do have a point here. Certainly, some kind of update seems reasonable, if only to say their still working on it.

    Wondering how this dovetails, if it does at all, with US regulator of derivitive markets proposals to increase regulation and limit sepeculation in political forecasting markets on this side of the Atlantic . . . and Pacific.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    The latest details of Trump's economic policy.
    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1825278689463951538
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,440
    edited August 19
    RobD said:

    I was just thinking, we still haven't heard anything about the insider betting investigations. How long can it possibly take?

    Yes, the gambling commission were very proactive before the election. But now it’s lost all its urgency. Funny that.
    I reckon its because in the end it will with perhaps exception of one case be lots of £50-100 based on my mate's mate told him that...lots of stupid / greedy people thinking they can win a few £100s based on gossip.

    There is only one name who could well have known and looked like more than a casual flutter.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,440
    edited August 19

    RobD said:

    I was just thinking, we still haven't heard anything about the insider betting investigations. How long can it possibly take?

    Yes, the gambling commission were very proactive before the election. But now it’s lost all its urgency. Funny that.
    While investigations take time, think you guys do have a point here. Certainly, some kind of update seems reasonable, if only to say their still working on it.

    Wondering how this dovetails, if it does at all, with US regulator of derivitive markets proposals to increase regulation and limit sepeculation in political forecasting markets on this side of the Atlantic . . . and Pacific.
    It really isn't a very difficult investigation. You ask Sunak when the decision was made, who was informed and when, and you look at all the betting patterns around that time period. For insider sports betting they don't take long at all when they have some evidence it isn't on the up and up.

    Not many people will have known when the market thought it was crazy thinking, so its them and their family. All the bookies have tools for all of this.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    The 'Kamala is a drunkard' thing doing the rounds is based on the flimsiest of flimsy 'evidence'.

    Especially give her opponent's ability to mangle words, even when apparently sober.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    I wonder about this, too.

    After yesterday's reporting, I have so many questions to which still no relevant politician or spokesperson from a relevant ministry has provided an answer.

    1) If Germany seriously wants to finance its aid only via the G-7 loan, what is stopping other countries from doing the same? Imagine just the US doing this... It wouldn't work.

    2) Therefore → Why do the Ministry of Finance and the Chancellery think that Germany has a special right compared to other G7 members?

    3) Wouldn't Ukraine actually finance the German bilateral assistance to Ukraine, since the loan is being paid out to Ukraine and only after that they spend the money?

    4) Why should we end up with no expenditure from the annual budget, while other countries have to pay billions upon billions of euros out of their own pockets to Ukraine?

    5) If Germany is not even willing to pay a few billion euros out of its own pocket, why should much smaller and economically weaker countries do so?

    I sincerely hope (for all of us) to be able to answer most if not all the questions tomorrow. I'll keep you updated.

    https://x.com/deaidua/status/1825148421268746468
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Michigan Presidential Polling:

    Harris (D): 47%
    Trump (R): 44%

    Rasmussen / Aug 17, 2024 / n=1093

  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125

    Is America ready to elect a Kamunist?

    image

    You can construct a much better argument that Trump is a fascist than Kamela is a communist. ;)
    Actually Donald Trump LOVES Communists! Recently sent Xi a fricking love letter.

    PLUS is good buddies with Kim the Commie dictator of North Korea.

    AND is well-know for wanting to give up Ukraine on a sliver platter to Putin.

    So no wonder Trump-fluffers like NY Post AND our own PB Sophist-in Chief, who descirates the UKR flag every time he stirs more shit on here.
    The word communist isn’t a synonym for “cartoon villain enemy of the US”.
    Wait - Putin is a cartoon villain? Fuck me, even by your standards that is some pivot. Though given your love for MAGA maybe shouldn't have been unexpected
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    If Trump did get a $10m bribe from Egypt, what did the regime get in return ?

    Laid out here.

    OK, it's time to talk about Egypt.

    The thwarted DoJ investigation into an alleged $10 million Egyptian bribe to Trump in 2016-17 has gotten attention on here

    But I haven’t seen any discussion of the wider *context* of U.S. foreign policy toward Egypt, and why it matters 🧵(1/n) ..

    https://x.com/gm_silverman/status/1825356011554697630
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    ...
    MikeL said:

    TECHNE POLL OF CONSERVATIVE PARTY MEMBERS
    (per the Times)

    Cleverly 26
    Patel 20
    Badenoch 14
    Tugendhat 11
    Jenrick 10
    Stride 4

    Head to Heads:
    Cleverly 45, Patel 39
    Cleverly 49, Jenrick 28
    Cleverly 51, Badenoch 28
    Cleverly 54, Tugendhat 23
    Cleverly 59, Stride 15

    Date: 2-12 August
    Sample size: 805
    Poll was conducted by Cleverly campaign

    Nah.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Interesting article on housing policy, with particular reference to the Harris plan.
    https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/harris-has-the-right-idea-on-housing

    Perhaps @edmundintokyo can comment, but I was struck by this (which goes against conventional PB wisdom):
    … If you’re buying a house for the first time or looking to significantly upgrade, you want house prices to be as low as possible. But if you already own a home that you’re happy with, you want the price of that home to be as high as possible, so that you can make the homebuyers pay you a lot of money when you’re finally ready to sell. It’s basically a zero-sum game.

    Now at this point, most people say “This is a bad system, it doesn’t have to be this way.” But unfortunately, they’re probably wrong. Lots of people cite Japan as a place where houses depreciate, but this is actually a statistical trick. Japan breaks out the value of housing structures and land separately. The housing structures depreciate, but the land under the houses — which represents 85% of the total value of housing/land in Japan — actually appreciates over time. In fact, Japan has a much higher percent of total household wealth tied up in owner-occupied housing/land than America does. America actually has the lowest percent of wealth in housing out of any OECD country:..

  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125
    Nigelb said:

    I wonder about this, too.

    After yesterday's reporting, I have so many questions to which still no relevant politician or spokesperson from a relevant ministry has provided an answer.

    1) If Germany seriously wants to finance its aid only via the G-7 loan, what is stopping other countries from doing the same? Imagine just the US doing this... It wouldn't work.

    2) Therefore → Why do the Ministry of Finance and the Chancellery think that Germany has a special right compared to other G7 members?

    3) Wouldn't Ukraine actually finance the German bilateral assistance to Ukraine, since the loan is being paid out to Ukraine and only after that they spend the money?

    4) Why should we end up with no expenditure from the annual budget, while other countries have to pay billions upon billions of euros out of their own pockets to Ukraine?

    5) If Germany is not even willing to pay a few billion euros out of its own pocket, why should much smaller and economically weaker countries do so?

    I sincerely hope (for all of us) to be able to answer most if not all the questions tomorrow. I'll keep you updated.

    https://x.com/deaidua/status/1825148421268746468

    It's only whoever this is who is saying Germany will "finance its aid only via the G-7 loan", everybody else is talking about an apparent plan to cut German military aid from 8 billion to 4 billion, so I'm not sure I'd bother waiting for this person's 'updates'.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting article on housing policy, with particular reference to the Harris plan.
    https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/harris-has-the-right-idea-on-housing

    Perhaps @edmundintokyo can comment, but I was struck by this (which goes against conventional PB wisdom):
    … If you’re buying a house for the first time or looking to significantly upgrade, you want house prices to be as low as possible. But if you already own a home that you’re happy with, you want the price of that home to be as high as possible, so that you can make the homebuyers pay you a lot of money when you’re finally ready to sell. It’s basically a zero-sum game.

    Now at this point, most people say “This is a bad system, it doesn’t have to be this way.” But unfortunately, they’re probably wrong. Lots of people cite Japan as a place where houses depreciate, but this is actually a statistical trick. Japan breaks out the value of housing structures and land separately. The housing structures depreciate, but the land under the houses — which represents 85% of the total value of housing/land in Japan — actually appreciates over time. In fact, Japan has a much higher percent of total household wealth tied up in owner-occupied housing/land than America does. America actually has the lowest percent of wealth in housing out of any OECD country:..

    That's an interesting fact, thanks. So surprising I wonder if it's true, or the whole story.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205
    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    I wonder about this, too.

    After yesterday's reporting, I have so many questions to which still no relevant politician or spokesperson from a relevant ministry has provided an answer.

    1) If Germany seriously wants to finance its aid only via the G-7 loan, what is stopping other countries from doing the same? Imagine just the US doing this... It wouldn't work.

    2) Therefore → Why do the Ministry of Finance and the Chancellery think that Germany has a special right compared to other G7 members?

    3) Wouldn't Ukraine actually finance the German bilateral assistance to Ukraine, since the loan is being paid out to Ukraine and only after that they spend the money?

    4) Why should we end up with no expenditure from the annual budget, while other countries have to pay billions upon billions of euros out of their own pockets to Ukraine?

    5) If Germany is not even willing to pay a few billion euros out of its own pocket, why should much smaller and economically weaker countries do so?

    I sincerely hope (for all of us) to be able to answer most if not all the questions tomorrow. I'll keep you updated.

    https://x.com/deaidua/status/1825148421268746468

    It's only whoever this is who is saying Germany will "finance its aid only via the G-7 loan", everybody else is talking about an apparent plan to cut German military aid from 8 billion to 4 billion, so I'm not sure I'd bother waiting for this person's 'updates'.
    It's extremely stupid and short-sighted by Germany. It's been clear by Putin's/Russia's actions since 2008 that they crave an expansion of their empire, and that will eventually come into conflict with Europe. And better to stop their crazy fascism now in Ukraine, than in a decade on Germany's eastern borders.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting article on housing policy, with particular reference to the Harris plan.
    https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/harris-has-the-right-idea-on-housing

    Perhaps @edmundintokyo can comment, but I was struck by this (which goes against conventional PB wisdom):
    … If you’re buying a house for the first time or looking to significantly upgrade, you want house prices to be as low as possible. But if you already own a home that you’re happy with, you want the price of that home to be as high as possible, so that you can make the homebuyers pay you a lot of money when you’re finally ready to sell. It’s basically a zero-sum game.

    Now at this point, most people say “This is a bad system, it doesn’t have to be this way.” But unfortunately, they’re probably wrong. Lots of people cite Japan as a place where houses depreciate, but this is actually a statistical trick. Japan breaks out the value of housing structures and land separately. The housing structures depreciate, but the land under the houses — which represents 85% of the total value of housing/land in Japan — actually appreciates over time. In fact, Japan has a much higher percent of total household wealth tied up in owner-occupied housing/land than America does. America actually has the lowest percent of wealth in housing out of any OECD country:..

    Interesting, and I like the author generally but I'm sceptical. His thought applies to people who are at the top of housing curve, ie who expect to downsize or never move again.

    In practice, large numbers of home owners would like to own a bigger house - and so would benefit from a general fall in prices.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,062
    Andy_JS said:

    "Emperor" Xi has described himself as in favor of "socialism with Chinese characteristics". At the risk of angering some of you, I will say that sounds a bit like a kind of national socialism.

    I thought a Chinese president said he was in favour of this about 35 years ago.
    The phrase is most associated with Deng Xiaoping and is from the beginning of the age of Reform after the arrest of the Gang of Four, so starting in the late 1970s. It gets "updated " with each new leadership cadre and is noticeably more restrictive under Xi Jingping than under Deng or even Jiang Zemin. These days it doesnt really have much coherence, but it is not necessarily repressive and indeed it really started as a pragmatic Reform programme.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,350
    edited August 19
    Today, the claimed number of Russian dead and incapacitated in Ukraine breaks 600,000.

    As a comparator, American casualties in the Vietnam war were 58,281 KIA and 153,372 WIA requiring hospitalization.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,696
    Sandpit said:

    Oh dear, they gave her a microphone but no teleprompter.

    https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1825251408288862287

    "Our election is about understanding the importance of this beautiful country of ours in terms of what we stand for around the globe as a democracy. As a democracy, we know there's a duality to the nature of democracy. On the one hand, incredible strength when it is in tact. What it does for its people to protect and defend their rights. Incredibly strong. And incredibly fragile."

    As someone on Twitter said in reply:
    Best case: she’s drunk.
    Worst case: she isn’t.

    How is that a word salad? The election is about democracy in the US. Democracy is a great system and protects the rights of individuals. But democracy is also fragile (i.e. under threat from Trump). That’s entirely reasonable.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301

    NEW THREAD

  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    I wonder about this, too.

    After yesterday's reporting, I have so many questions to which still no relevant politician or spokesperson from a relevant ministry has provided an answer.

    1) If Germany seriously wants to finance its aid only via the G-7 loan, what is stopping other countries from doing the same? Imagine just the US doing this... It wouldn't work.

    2) Therefore → Why do the Ministry of Finance and the Chancellery think that Germany has a special right compared to other G7 members?

    3) Wouldn't Ukraine actually finance the German bilateral assistance to Ukraine, since the loan is being paid out to Ukraine and only after that they spend the money?

    4) Why should we end up with no expenditure from the annual budget, while other countries have to pay billions upon billions of euros out of their own pockets to Ukraine?

    5) If Germany is not even willing to pay a few billion euros out of its own pocket, why should much smaller and economically weaker countries do so?

    I sincerely hope (for all of us) to be able to answer most if not all the questions tomorrow. I'll keep you updated.

    https://x.com/deaidua/status/1825148421268746468

    It's only whoever this is who is saying Germany will "finance its aid only via the G-7 loan", everybody else is talking about an apparent plan to cut German military aid from 8 billion to 4 billion, so I'm not sure I'd bother waiting for this person's 'updates'.
    It's extremely stupid and short-sighted by Germany. It's been clear by Putin's/Russia's actions since 2008 that they crave an expansion of their empire, and that will eventually come into conflict with Europe. And better to stop their crazy fascism now in Ukraine, than in a decade on Germany's eastern borders.
    Yes, I'm questioning why the normally more reliable @Nigelb seems to be misreporting this by quoting someone on Twitter rather than the many news reports on the subject
    Eg
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0kr91zqp0lo
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting article on housing policy, with particular reference to the Harris plan.
    https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/harris-has-the-right-idea-on-housing

    Perhaps @edmundintokyo can comment, but I was struck by this (which goes against conventional PB wisdom):
    … If you’re buying a house for the first time or looking to significantly upgrade, you want house prices to be as low as possible. But if you already own a home that you’re happy with, you want the price of that home to be as high as possible, so that you can make the homebuyers pay you a lot of money when you’re finally ready to sell. It’s basically a zero-sum game.

    Now at this point, most people say “This is a bad system, it doesn’t have to be this way.” But unfortunately, they’re probably wrong. Lots of people cite Japan as a place where houses depreciate, but this is actually a statistical trick. Japan breaks out the value of housing structures and land separately. The housing structures depreciate, but the land under the houses — which represents 85% of the total value of housing/land in Japan — actually appreciates over time. In fact, Japan has a much higher percent of total household wealth tied up in owner-occupied housing/land than America does. America actually has the lowest percent of wealth in housing out of any OECD country:..

    That's an interesting fact, thanks. So surprising I wonder if it's true, or the whole story.
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QGBR628BIS

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QJPR368BIS

    Japan flat in real terms since 1956, UK going stratospheric. No idea how reliable the source is but it claims the data are comparable so Japan is presumably land + structure. I don't understand this. I knew about physical structure depreciating (to do with wooden buildings in earthquake zone) but I would expect actual land value to compensate given Japanese wealth and population density.
  • mercatormercator Posts: 815

    Sandpit said:

    Oh dear, they gave her a microphone but no teleprompter.

    https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1825251408288862287

    "Our election is about understanding the importance of this beautiful country of ours in terms of what we stand for around the globe as a democracy. As a democracy, we know there's a duality to the nature of democracy. On the one hand, incredible strength when it is in tact. What it does for its people to protect and defend their rights. Incredibly strong. And incredibly fragile."

    As someone on Twitter said in reply:
    Best case: she’s drunk.
    Worst case: she isn’t.

    How is that a word salad? The election is about democracy in the US. Democracy is a great system and protects the rights of individuals. But democracy is also fragile (i.e. under threat from Trump). That’s entirely reasonable.
    I'm ok with it. The anti Trump case put in plain and simple terms.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125
    mercator said:

    Sandpit said:

    Oh dear, they gave her a microphone but no teleprompter.

    https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1825251408288862287

    "Our election is about understanding the importance of this beautiful country of ours in terms of what we stand for around the globe as a democracy. As a democracy, we know there's a duality to the nature of democracy. On the one hand, incredible strength when it is in tact. What it does for its people to protect and defend their rights. Incredibly strong. And incredibly fragile."

    As someone on Twitter said in reply:
    Best case: she’s drunk.
    Worst case: she isn’t.

    How is that a word salad? The election is about democracy in the US. Democracy is a great system and protects the rights of individuals. But democracy is also fragile (i.e. under threat from Trump). That’s entirely reasonable.
    I'm ok with it. The anti Trump case put in plain and simple terms.
    It lacks a little punch, but makes much more sense than any of the shit that floods out of Trump's dribbling mouth.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    kamski said:

    mercator said:

    Sandpit said:

    Oh dear, they gave her a microphone but no teleprompter.

    https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1825251408288862287

    "Our election is about understanding the importance of this beautiful country of ours in terms of what we stand for around the globe as a democracy. As a democracy, we know there's a duality to the nature of democracy. On the one hand, incredible strength when it is in tact. What it does for its people to protect and defend their rights. Incredibly strong. And incredibly fragile."

    As someone on Twitter said in reply:
    Best case: she’s drunk.
    Worst case: she isn’t.

    How is that a word salad? The election is about democracy in the US. Democracy is a great system and protects the rights of individuals. But democracy is also fragile (i.e. under threat from Trump). That’s entirely reasonable.
    I'm ok with it. The anti Trump case put in plain and simple terms.
    It lacks a little punch, but makes much more sense than any of the shit that floods out of Trump's dribbling mouth.
    In a politer way, I'd agree. She is prone to speaking in rather bland and mindless clichés, and not knowing how she's going to end a sentence once she's begun it. But she's up against someone who rambles on for hours, so there's little chance of it doing her significant damage.
This discussion has been closed.