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Why this is still Trump’s election to lose – politicalbetting.com
Why this is still Trump’s election to lose – politicalbetting.com
3 caution points for Democrats… 1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020. 3. Dems don't say they're more likely to vote now than in May pic.twitter.com/E0zfPCyKS9
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Or do the pollsters not tell us that as they don't tell us anything else in American polling?
(Thank you to the British polling industry for the BPC.)
(Burning my image quota for the day, and acknowledging @Foxy got there first, and slightly trimming on my temporary PB-break because we are having good posts / conversation.)
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/matt-goodwin-britons-know-something-is-being-lost-in-the-wave-of-multiculturalism-but-elites-don-t-get-it/ar-AA1oITBS?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=e7694d8dcc0749a689f39f1c35da110d&ei=20
Expect inflation to continue to rise the rest of 2024, but remain below 3%. But I'm not sure ordinary people will pay much attention to "what is the decimal point after "2" on an inflation statistic after a period of 10%+ inflation.
Just going on the current 538 state polling averages, the only state that Biden won in 2020 where Trump is now ahead in the polling is Georgia.
Harris would be favorite I think, though not by much. Although Trump's favorability is much better than at this point in 2016, and better than his approval polling in 2020, Harris's current favorability polling is better than Trump's.
It is a free speech issue.
It's also satire so there is even more flexibility when it comes to satire and free speech...
The Harris campaign has yet to put a full stop to the issue, which has riled up social media users
https://www.theguardian.com/science/article/2024/aug/14/kamala-harris-or-harriss-apostrophe-row-grammar-nerds
It's humiliating enough to be speaking to an empty village hall, just 2 years after being Mistress of the Universe who was going to surprise on the upside.
She goes green with envy.
(And she was wearing a green dress as well - she really is a fool, isn't she?)
After all, the lettuce didn't crash the economy, and we have no reason to think it would have been a worse PM than Truss.
And Truss ultimately has a decision to make. If she doesn't want the lettuce gags every time she speaks, it might be better all round for her to leaf the public eye for a bit.
Even if you agree with Truss's views, there are better spokespeople. Aren't there?
Why do I feel sorry for Truss? Its BEFORE the banner. She is sat in what sounds like an almost empty room, shilling for Trump, and giving her opinion on how the average American is doing based on no experience at all. Her opinion is literally worthless and baseless, but she is hoping that her notoriety means she can feed at the Trump table and still be relevant.
I know that we all think politicians are thick skinned, and she is truly thick. But this must be hard work, even for her. Like the 4th member of the crap boyband after the get dumped by the record label thinking that anyone wants to hear their attempts to write their own songs or sing without autotune.
It looks like Harris/Walz has the zeitgeist and enthusiasm, and looks like Biden dropped out at exactly the right time for a short (in American terms) campaign.
He's not wrong there has been a long-standing antipathy towards him from many posters.
It doesn't need a degree in psychology to see that for the most part that antipathy is motivated by jealousy and insecurity.
You'll no doubt find good reasons to have another pop at Reeves, in due course.
This isn't one of them.
- he started it
- he seems to enjoy it
This is where the states are right now: https://ballotpedia.org/2023_and_2024_abortion-related_ballot_measures
Note that Missouri and Arizona have both confirmed a pro-abortion amendment will be put to voters since I wrote the header. Both have Senate elections too.
Also, a new poll in Florida (one of the states with an abortion ballot) suggesting Harris has cut Trump's lead in Florida substantially and is getting close to MoE territory: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4826106-florida-harris-trump-rfk-jr-2024/
We still don't have confirmation of either measure in Nebraska, Montana, or a resolution to the train crash the SoS has overseen in Arkansas.
But most PMs who leave office do fade into the background to a large degree. Not completely, but they target their interventions for the handful of things that really matter to them. Or quietly make oodles of cash in the very private sector. Or both.
Truss and Johnson seem like outliers here, and not in a way that's healthy.
I appreciate that we are in the silly season before politics restarts in September, but there really is no-one in the Tory contest really making a case for Free Enterprise and Capitalism. They are either bogged down with navel gazing culture wars or simply dull as ditchwater.
Simply promising unfunded tax cuts does not equate to a coherent right wing vision. It shouldn't be a difficult case to make against Starmer/Reeves vision of cheese paring grey state corporation.
Cancel growth she doesnt know how to do it.
Now, the trick to carrying that position was to keep interest rates low to ensure the borrowing was affordable. Truss' folly caused them to soar an astonishing twentyfold, and while some of that would have happened anyway her bizarre fiscal proposals made everything much worse.
So I stand by my statement. The lettuce would have been better.
I assume that at some point they will rediscover capitalism and think "oooh thats a good policy". Until then they deserve all of the kickings they have had and the inevitable kickings to come.
She will do the opposite in both cases.
Albeit in a manner which tries to have it both ways.
Haley: I want this campaign to win. But the campaign is not going to win talking about crowd sizes. It's not going to win talking about what race Kamala Harris is. It's not going to win talking about whether she is dumb. You can’t win on those things
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1823488662732202266
I hope he stays, or comes back soon, for he is part of this site. But so was Tim, and others that he has bullied off this site over the years.
To paraphrase Mr Micawber: Annual inflation 2.0%, pay inflation 2.1%, result happiness. Annual inflation 2.0%, pay inflation 1.9%, result misery.
Remind me how that went in terms of growth.
Hunt put up taxes far more than he cut them. Extending the freeze on tax thresholds at a time of inflation much more than paid for NI cut, there were more taxes going up than down as @RochdalePioneers repeatedly said pre-election.
NI cuts benefit those who are working for a living and were funded by those who have unearned incomes having lower thresholds.
And NI is such an outrageous tax that any cut on it, especially a fully funded one like Hunt did, is entirely justified.
It speaks more to her incompetence in organising her speaking tour. She is a walking, talking self-lampoon.
Harrassment / harassment
She should abolish NI altogether and merge it into Income Tax.
Let those who aren't working for a living pay their fair share towards the public sector getting a pay rise.
If public sector jobs aren't worth doing, they should be abolished altogether. But if they do need doing, they should be paid appropriately. Same for the private sector too.
As for the police I cannot remember a time when the independently recommended pay award for the police wasn't paid in full. Can you show me a time when it didn't happen?
Currently 51-49 to Dems (including 3 independents with Dems)
West Virginia will be a Republican gain
Dems are unlikely to pick any up (though Florida and/or Texas could just about be in play)
So they need to hold on to all of (plus win the presidency for the casting vote)
Montana
Michigan
Nevada
Ohio
Arizona
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
The last 3 of those they should win, and they have a good chance in Ohio, Michigan and Nevada, but Tester is behind in the polls in Montana.
I seriously think she needs some help and maybe to look at a bit of a career change.
Three point swing on last time required for a Dem gain.
But if it makes you feel less jealous and insecure to think so, feel free.
My own preference is to abolish apostrophes for all inflections, only retaining them for elisions and glottal (or glo'al) stops (isn't; bu'er (as in butter)). This will assist greengrocers who can stop writing 'We aint got no banana's'.
Freezing tax thresholds and cutting NI means that taxes on PAYE working for a living are going down fully-funded (and then some!) by putting UP taxes on both those working for a living and more importantly on those with incomes they aren't working for.
That's entirely justified.
PB is a lesser place without him. I haven't gone through the last thread so don't know why he flounced, but I hope he comes back.
And for cutting spending, there are two honest options and one dishonest one.
The honest ones are to cut government functions, or do serious re-engineering to do them more efficiently. If you have concrete ideas- great. Tell me what they are and why the outgone government didn't do them.
The dishonest one is to pretend that you can get staff for public sector functions for less than they actually cost. Given the recruitment and retention problems all over the place, it's pretty clear that the government's recent offers haven't been enough.
He left because he was threatened with a ban for going on too much about pets.
He got into a huff when a few people pointed out if he was so concerned about the environment would he be giving up plane travel.
In short he’s just like Polly Toynbee.
I don't have a problem with Leon (other than finding his certainty on any number of matters somewhat ridiculous), and I'd rather he were still here.
And he can, when he chooses, be both perceptive and charming.
But I'm not as puzzled as you about why some folk don't like him.