Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember the 1999 Euros: Tony Blair’s LAB was 32 pc ahead i
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember the 1999 Euros: Tony Blair’s LAB was 32 pc ahead in the GE VI polls but trailed Hague’s CON by 8pts on the day
What we mustn’t forget as we approach the May Euro elections is that this is not a national vote where LAB has prospered since the introduction of the party list voting system.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Who'd have thunk it?
Just when everyone was seemingly writing off gold (and gold mining) as yesterday's investment, its value has increased very robustly by almost 15% in the first 10 weeks of 2014 from $1200 per oz to $1373 per oz currently, while in London, despite all the initial New Year's enthusiasm, share prices have actually fallen over this same period.
DYOR.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=10693986&cc=10669556
He blames Germany for focusing on austerity and for failing to lead economically and says the EU may not survive long-lasting stagnation.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26541356
Where those votes go will be interesting. I think that they are unlikely to go to the Tories. Some Greens may go Labour, but canot see BNPers going to Milibands Labour.
However my own take is that this is effectively the last hurrah to allow the punters to give the Coalition a decent kicking before the General Election when serious matters will be decided and accordingly voters will award Labour a consolation prize win with Ukip flattering to deceive in a battle for second place with the Tories. The LibDems may do a trifle better than expected but still be way off the top three.
Lab 32% .. Con 24% .. Ukip 24% .. LibDem 10% .. Others 10%
It is possible for LD seats to go down even if they stay on the same percentage if the others are only 10%. In 2009 Others were more than 20%.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/03/lord-ashcroft-milibands-referendum-non-pledge-will-win-votes-for-labour-if-the-conservatives-let-it.html
Yes a good summary. In some respects this has damaged the Conservatives in a different guise. Cameron's droning on and on about pasties, Leveson and gay marriage has already had the effect voters think he is out of touch with their core issues.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/03/lord-ashcroft-milibands-referendum-non-pledge-will-win-votes-for-labour-if-the-conservatives-let-it.html
Ian Lavery MP Michael Jackson
and notice which two media organisations have lost their interest in racism in public life.
Euros are all about turnout as we know and it is a time when Tories in areas there are not supposed to be any Tories according to the media and the PB leftie brigade see Tories elected.
What happens if UKIP are actually 2nd or even 3rd? It is all very well to suggest UKIP will run away with the forthcoming election but where will they actually add to the 13 seats won in 2009? Looking back at the polls before the election, generally the Tories were as usual understated and the other parties overstated.
This is a very good article. However, Oborne may be making a mistake that many of those profoundly opposed to the EU make - that most voters care as much as they do about this.
That said, there is now no doubt about it: if getting a direct say on the UK's continued EU membership really is the thing that most exercises you, there is only one practical voting choice you can make in 2015 and that is to vote Tory. But going back to the Oborne piece, it's odds on Bob Crow would not have done that.
The BBC’s Question Time has been accused of giving its Labour guests an easier ride than Coalition politicians.
A leaked briefing note for host David Dimbleby revealed he was urged to ask many more questions of former Deputy Prime Minister, Lord Heseltine, than the Labour work and pensions spokesman Rachel Reeves.
The note suggested Tory grandee Lord Heseltine be probed on trade sanctions against Russia, the Commons vote on Syria, David Cameron’s remarks in Opposition about Russian shoppers in Selfridges and Home Office minister James Brokenshire’s outburst on cheap migrant labour.
In contrast, Miss Reeves was simply to be asked two soft questions: whether her party supported a financial bail-out for Ukraine and whether Labour agreed with the Government’s handling of the crisis.
Lib Dem justice minister Simon Hughes was also lined up for more questions than Miss Reeves, including multiple queries about G8 talks and a Ukrainian bail-out.....
Other guests on the show included Russian commentator Alexander Nekrassov, who later tweeted that there ‘should be an alternative question time … with an impartial presenter and all panellists given equal opportunities to speak’.
‘Now that the dust has settled I must say that last week’s was an appalling programme, biased and hijacked by liberals,’ he added...
Radio 4 presenter John Humphrys admitted earlier this week that there is a ‘broadly liberal’ bias at the BBC.
But he put this down to the BBC hiring the ‘best and the brightest’ university graduates where left-wing views were common.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2579619/Was-Dimbleby-told-easy-Labour-guest-Question-Time-Leaked-note-reveals-presenter-urged-ask-questions-Tory-Lord-Heseltine.html#ixzz2vpRQSbmI
Gloomy report says we face massive tax rises and cuts within 2 years as politicians refuse to face up to scale of our problems and make more unfunded promises.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10693317/UK-faces-crippling-tax-rises-and-spending-cuts-to-fund-pensions-and-healthcare.html
I replied: "the people you and I know are not typical of the electorate."
(We divorced over something else entirely. I promise.Ttrust me.)
Our SMT had a big pow wow last week, to thrash out a strategy. They're that desperate, that they've asked us to come up with ideas to save money. Needless to say, suggestions regarding the Chief's new car and our swanky new headquarters have not been received well.
What concerns me the most, is that there are obviously tons of rumours flying around, but we've been told that all of the rumours are on the negotiating table.
We live in interesting times.
But he put this down to the BBC hiring the ‘best and the brightest’ university graduates where left-wing views were common.
There is a real problem here. If the Beeb tries deliberately to hire a political balance of reporters (as well as an ethnic and gender one, of course) a Flat Earther may inquire why all the successful candidates believed the Earth to be spherical. In the end, of course, it is bound to hire what is on offer. The interesting question would be to compare the politics of BBC graduates with those of other broadcasters (one should compare both applications and appointments, of course). A job for the EOC? Or has that been wound up?
Betting postBacked Williams to top score at 5.5 (Ladbrokes).
Mercedes are faster, but chewed up many gearboxes, Ferrari is likely slower and has a thirsty engine, McLaren and Force India appear to be slower. Williams is also the most reliable by some distance.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/referendum-new-poll-puts-support-3236690
If, despite that, the targeted politicians perform well, then it would show just how poor their competition is. And Reeves is poor.
As I said, perhaps this was just one show. Releasing the briefing notes for (say) the last 100 shows should allow us to see if it is a bias for one edition alone, or a long-term trend.
I'm sure even you wouldn't condone a long-term bias towards or against any political party on the beloved BBC, would you?
At one point Highland Council seemed to be taking over every major empty office building and paid vast sums to convert them and fill them with staff. Now of course they are closing them and reducing the staff. No-one has noticed any change in the quality of service delivered at the grass roots, either better or worse but we have poshed up empty office space now.
Probably most people have missed the surge in coffee from 118 at the end of January to 204 today - but may notice the effect in the cafes soon.
Looking at other commodity changes over the last 12 months:(ignoring changes during the period)
Copper: 7800 to 6511
Gold: 1600 to 1366
West Texas Crude: 93 to 98
Brent Crude: 109 to 108
However, as usual some shares have done very well; e.g.
Britvic: 425 to 727
I might put that to the Chief, then claim a consultancy fee.
For the Euro elections my ARSE will be enjoying a cruise around the islands of the west of Scotland whilst its most modest founder and Mrs JackW will be spending quality time with some big knobs in the Chilterns.
"[W]hile there may be low political cunning in his decision, it has much to recommend it. Coming to a view on Europe may not have been the toughest challenge he has faced as Labour leader, even if his party has a modest eurosceptic wing. But his stance is far more sensible than the one set out by Mr Cameron. The prime minister's decision to commit to an arbitrary date for a referendum was an error of judgment."
"Sadly we are only now really beginning to see the problems caused by Labour throwing money at the public sector in their 13 years. They didn't target it where it could do most good, only where it could create most jobs for the boys who vote for them, so acute and frontline services lost out to expanding offices and swankie furniture every time.
At one point Highland Council seemed to be taking over every major empty office building and paid vast sums to convert them and fill them with staff. Now of course they are closing them and reducing the staff. No-one has noticed any change in the quality of service delivered at the grass roots, either better or worse but we have poshed up empty office space now."
i am always amazed in the UK how government buildings and other entities aid for by the public (BBC for example) have an obsession with having swanky offices and cutting edge furniture and artwork.
having lived in Switzerland for a long time i found that govt and cantonal offices were very functional and often shabby. they seemed to get the idea that they did not have to portray any image or "win" custom but were there to provide a necessary service.
i do not understand why all govt or local authorities cannot be made to buy all their furniture from an approved supplier with pre-agreed standards for office chairs, desks etc. it would save an absolute fortune and hopefully stop the obsession with form over function.....
Exactly the same experience here in West Wales. Both the Welsh Assembly Government and the County Council decided to build new regional offices next door to each other (c/w subsidised staff canteens and free private parking). Each office cost around £20m and the excuse given was it would free up numerous old offices in the area and the sale of these offices would meet the cost of the new builds.
Result about 4+ years later, plenty of old Victorian buildings are empty and still for sale and interest charges are having to be paid on the money borrowed to build these new offices.
Council tax is going up by 5% with threats to cut education, leisure, bus services in a rural area and health services but no cuts to the numbers of, or salaries and pensions of council senior management.
"Can't Pay. Won't Live."
Man has known few greater perils.
Do you really think that just because it is in the Mail, it is demonstrably a partial report? Do you apply that same opinion to all stories in all newspapers, for instance the Mirror, the Guardian or the Indy?
I don't recall you jumping up and down defending Mitchell in what was obviously a partial report in the Sun?
[XP won't disappear but it won't be patched anymore, making it a soft hit in security terms].
Marvellous, bloody marvellous. I was just thinking that what I really needed was an unnecessary three figure bill and the choice between alternative operating systems which are varying degrees of shite.
1. A new electoral law has been introduced which means that the voting threshold for Parliamentary seats has been raised to 12%.
2. The government has announced plans for a big tax cut for everyone who earns less than 1,500 Euros per month to the effect that from May they'll get an extra 100 Euros each month.
To be honest, I'm not exactly in the best position to spend a few hundred pounds on a desktop, but given my job is writing and I publish online I don't exactly have a choice.
Does that dear old nan of yours not yet have a Paddy Power account ?
If so give her a call and talk her through opening one with the 7/1 offer about "Annie Power" in the 3:20 at Chelters.
Naturally there is a degree of lost in translation when posting online.
That said, my wife who is centre-left agrees that he is a muppet.
Probably get one on Ebay for less than that. Use with any keyboard monitor and mouse (An Apple keyboard would help because of the special keys, but the machine will work with any USB thing)
It's all Google/app based, so you'd need to find equivalent word processing apps and the like, though.
In the Chez JackW Bunker I have a number of computers on the go. Save two, the others have all been purchased in the £250-300 range.
If you have enough HDD space you could setup a dual boot, install ubuntu say on the 2nd partition and try it out for a while until you are happy with it.
I'd happily talk you through the process if you like, it really isn't that hard.
1/ The referendum isn't till after a GE Cameron won't win
2/ Cameron has a solid history of welshing on EU-related promises
3/ He probably won't still be leader in 2017 even if he wins
4/ So his successor can welsh on the promise instead, on the grounds that it was someone else's promise
5/ Nothing binds Cameron to honour the result of a referendum even if it happens
6/ Cameron has said he'll never take Britain out of the EU, so he has indicated in almost as many words that he'll welsh on either having a referendum or respecting its outcome
7/ What has he indicated so far is not, even taken at face value, a prospectus for exit if the result goes that way. He'd need to invoke Article whatever, make moves to leave, and then renegotiate, none of which he has done or will do.
The only way to get EU withdrawal is to vote for the only party that advocates it. Voting for a party that withdrawal advocates perceive as bullsh1tting them about it doesn't work.
This leaves the BOOers with UKIP as the only choice. Voting UKIP stands a good chance of costing the Tories the next election. That in turn may make them reflect on how to stop it happening again. One way would be to remove Cameron and replace him with someone who will implement and act on an In / Out referendum.
I don't agree with UKIP on this, but nor do I agree with Cameron or with what seems to me to be the identikit spineless Europhile "we must just put up with all this eurocr@p" attitude. I think British notice to leave the EU should be more or less permanently on the table at the councils of Europe as a negotiating position, on the basis that otherwise you have no leverage.
An In / Out referendum result that was say 55 In 45 Out would be very handy to have, because you could then remind the other 26 that if they screw around with X Y or Z issue that matters to Britain you could quite easily spin the matter into a reversal of those positions, i.e. a No vote.
On the plus side a quick browse suggests a low/middle-end PC is a bit cheaper than I was expecting, but I'm still not happy that Microsoft being cretinous means I've got an unexpected bill. Ironic, given I had some good news yesterday (but any money from said news will be a long way off).
Also: you should note the difference between saying someone's comment is stupid, and saying they are stupid. You seem rather fond of equating the two ...
And you can run Windows on it if you get 'homesick'
That isn't true any more. The latest distros of Ubuntu etc are actually pretty nice.
The installer for Ubuntu will guide you through the complete dual boot process including setting up the partitions, migrating user accounts and documents.
The real selling point from your POV is that it is free and requires no new hardware.
All you need is enough disk space.
Also, you will still have your XP machine and all your existing data available should you decide you don't like it.
Why fork out on new hardware that you don't need?
*Almost* more interestingly, 24% of Labour voters plan to vote Yes (v. 16% SNP voting No). If there's a No vote, I wonder how the the former are going to feel about their party and its part in the No campaign?
MS supports a massive variety of hardware, from different drives, chips, BIOS, graphics / sound cards, IO, memory etc, little of which is under their command. To test the patches, they need to keep a vast array of hardware in the test labs and run the tests on them. (*) It's a very large expense for something that has brought them little or no revenue for five or six years.
In comparison, Apple control their hardware rigorously, and have to target only their own hardware. Believe me, that's a heck of a lot easier. As I've said passim: MS's software engineering is much more impressive than Apple's for this very reason.
(*) It's actually much more complex than that with the advent of VM's etc, but you hopefully get the general point.
Anyway, I'll try not to bleat about this anymore. I haven't gotten any work done today yet, and whining won't pay the bills.
I do reserve the right to pen a short horror story involving a Microsoft executive being brutally murdered with a wiffle stick, though.
Pretty much everything that most people use their computers for these days is done inside a browser, and the Chromebook sacrifices the option to install other software on the computer for being very cheap, and very fast and easy to use for that price. There's an ever-increasing amount of things that you can do through your browser without the need for additional software - for example I've been doing some Python coding on my Chromebook recently.
Have a think about any software you use that isn't your browser and do a few web searches to see if there are alternatives that work in a browser.