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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ed Miliband’s “No EU Referendum” move might be less of a gamble than it looks
We are now just ten weeks away from the Euro Elections and today sees Ed Miliband make a speech in which, effectively, he rules out offering an referendum on whether the UK should stay IN or OUT.
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What is perhaps worthy of further investigation is the proportion of referenda which lead to change and the proportion leading to the status quo.
But many questions remain. What would 'leaving the EU' mean for the average person on the street? For businesses? Are there any parts of the EU we'd like to remain in, or part of, and that would require negotiation? What about EFTA?
Germany's green plans hit trouble:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24914#.Ux_6bvnV9RI
You can't be all things to all men.
@TelePolitics: Alex Salmond's independence blueprint cost Scottish taxpayers £1.3m http://t.co/VAed3Gce59
My own immediate reaction was: in office, he'll discover that his preconditions for a referendum never quite get met. In fact I am unclear whether Labour and Tories don't actually have the same policy on this subject, just wearing slightly different clothes...
PS I'm not denying that they're doofuses for shutting down their nuclear plants...
If that were the case then we would have had some sign of anger and mistrust long before now from his own backbench MPs after they belatedly realised they had been taken for gullible fools. Again and again and again and again and again.
I must have missed the part where calamity Clegg made a Cast Iron Pledge for an IN/OUT referendum. After all, who wouldn't believe a Clegg manifesto commitment these days? Luckily it will never occur to Farage to raise that with him repeatedly at the debate and bring along a prop to wave in Clegg's face.
Like this.
Tim Scott @timscottukip Feb 20
Lib Dem EU Referendum leaflet: here it is, from before the last election where Clegg promises us an EU Referendum: pic.twitter.com/afWIuZzQoK
LOL
A man grows an epic beard whilst walking 3,000 miles through China in a year.
http://www.lifebuzz.com/chris-walks/
This video makes me want to hoist my rucksack onto my shoulders once more and disappear for another year. Although I doubt that Mrs J would be waiting for me when I finish...
There's something about open spaces that calls me, that makes me want to know them intimately, to experience them, to feel them with my toes and my hands. To walk across or through them. It's at the core of my being. It's also the hardest thing you can do, both physically and especially mentally. Loneliness is a killer.
Yet I yearn to go back out there, to walk (say) the European or Japanese coasts.
FWIW, I think In would probably win, by between 5-10% were there a referendum on existing terms, but it'd be grudging and wouldn't settle the debate. If Cameron could get the referendum on the terms he wants - whether that be a series of UK opt-outs or more fundamental reform - I'd anticipate a 20%+ majority for In. If he tries and fails, Out should win.
Actually, I think Miliband's position is potentially more of a gamble than a straight In/Out, never mind Cameron's renegotiation ploy.
By tying a vote to a Treaty, that will almost certainly have significant opposition if it plans to pass more power to Brussels, that would boost the No vote. It's not just the BOOers but those opposed to the Treaty who'd be against. After all, countries like France, Ireland, Denmark and the Netherlands have voted against treaties before. If they can, Britain can. Putting the UK's membership on the table may not be enough to swing the balance back - and if it does, it'd undermine the legitimacy of the vote by bringing in threats that wouldn't be relevant (as other countries would probably have referendums too without the same issues tied to No).
In saying he does not want a referendum Miliband is not playing this game. So if he is elected there will be no substantive renegotiation either. Ed is pretty well wedded to the EU as it is. Labour has not really moved on (at least in his case) from their Blairite policy of being at the heart of Europe. I suspect he will want to sign up for the full panoply of opt outs as well.
So there is a choice between the parties on this subject for those that care.
For those that just want out, plain and simple, the choice is slightly more complex. A renegotiated package presented by the tories or even most tories as a reason for staying in will probably win but at least there will be a vote and a chance of obtaining their objective, probably the only chance in their lifetimes. Or they can vote for a party that makes a youtube video of a witty speech in a Parliament no one gives a damn about every few years.
Ed is most definitely not crap, and the BOOers are playing fantasy politrix.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26540220
RIP Berkin Elvan.
Much as it pains me to accept it, I think the UK would vote NO to leaving the EU also. But the vote would be close and the issue of the UK's continued membership would always be in doubt. Maybe the UK's payoff would be triggering some sort of devomax within the EU for the non-Eurozone countries. Maybe that's what we really want anyway.
Telegraph News @TelegraphNews
Michael Portillo says Britain should quit the EU and that Cameron's promise of a referendum is an 'insincere ploy' http://soa.li/OlB5ajl
I got caught out on the last one which teaches me the peril of having my wife do my VAT books for me!
I suspect there is a rationale for the Tory & Labour parties to grope towards a common policy in this area, leaving the fanatics on either side to the two minor parties...
MP's should have their salary reduced by 50% every time they abrogate their responsibilities to the voters and opt for a referendum.
Next ....
These are organisations we signed up to long ago.
Mrs T abolished the GLC without a poll. Why not?
I'd probably vote to stay in, and I think most people would do the same, but at the minute, we're mistrustful of the EU, and of our own politicians.
Milliband is fully signed up to the EU, and doesn't want a referendum to get in the way of his PM ambitions, and he certainly wouldn't want to be the PM that was in the hotseat if we somehow voted to leave.
Milliband is a coward on the EU, but, no more cowardly than Clegg or Cameron. They don't trust us to have a say, and that will bite them on the arse in a few years, as kicking the can down the road now will only lead to more unrest over the next few years.
There are no plans to give more powers , vague promises of jam tomorrow which will disappear like snow off a dyke is the best we will see.
A NO vote is a NO HOPE vote.
Hopeless, more like.....
Treaties signed off by Parliament are fine.
Mind you I remember when Labour was the party of out and the Tories were the party of in!
UKIP seem to be losing momentum and flagging. The Euro crisis may not be properly over, but it is certainly off our news. A poor performance in the Euros by the kippers could change a lot.
I can see Mikes tip for Conservatives top in the Euros still being value.
The Tory onslaught on Milibland's EU position started within seconds of it being leaked on Twitter last night.
Interestingly John Rentoul that great defender of all things Blairite told me last night he expects Crossover in 6 months time.
That said, there is clearly a limit: and freedom of movement across the EU is that limit. If you don't like the EU because you don't like that Romanians have the right to live and work in the UK, then there is no way that any renegotiation is going to get you anything you like.
Emphasises the idea that Cameron will offer a referendum but campaign for IN. Rather what he did with AV.
What the Telegraph does not say but the Mail does (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2578724/Try-numeracy-test-experts-say-poor-maths-costing-economy-20bn-year.html) is that the Gold Level is equivalent to GCSE A*-C.
This shows the ghastly grade inflation that has happened and you are even invited to use a calculator for what is just simple mental arithmetic. This test shows that 50% of the adult population has the numeracy ability of a primary school child.
In fact the Gold Level questions are far below the standard of my poor village school when we prepared for the 11+ , at a time when mental arithmetic was separated from written arithmetic.
I have a workbook written by a girl of 8 dated 1843 who completed far harder questions than the Gold Level.
No wonder we are bringing over maths teachers from Shanghai to show us what we had forgotten from the 1950s-1960s. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-26533428) and the UK is split between the readers and non-readers (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-26515836).
How much longer must we continue to fund teachers who cannot teach, schools that are not competent and teaching methods advocated by academic educationalists which are proven failures.
Yet we expect our children to compete in a global economy when they finish their education!! At this rate the world will export its rubbish to the UK (instead of India and Africa) for recycling as that is all our descendants will be able to do.
Scots are vastly over represented by politicians. Assuming we get a NO vote, all 59 Westminster seats should be culled. Instead the 56 Regional MSPs should automatically represent Scotland at Westminster. Scottish MPs at Westminster frankly have little or nothing to do at Westminster if they are not involved in legislation which affects only England, Wales or NI so there is no need for 59 MPs and 129 MSPs for 5 million people. I am delighted to learn that there is likely to be a 25% cut in the number of councillors in some councils but alarmed at the suggestion of creating more in areas where there is "poverty". More councillors in areas where almost no-one votes is a monumental waste of money. Better to kick them up the arse and tell them to get a grip instead of constantly playing the victim. It really is time to get tough on Benefit Street.
I am not sure how that works. If the EU is a defining issue in British politics and the British electorate really are clamouring for a chance to say Yes or No to continued membership, then ruling that out except under very specific circumstances is not cowardly. It may be stupid, but that is very different.
David Cameron is absolutely right: the only way to get a referendum on EU membership in the next few years is to vote Tory. Now we'll see just how many voters view it is a priority. That is a good thing surely.
;-)
I am quite bowled over.
Dave cannot set out his red lines before the GE because they would bring his carefully balanced house of cards down. A redrawing of the working time directive - ie the right for the UK government to reduce job security and holiday entitlements, and to extend working hours, will alienate many voters - and will certainly not assuage the Tory right.
How the new treaties would be drawn up to shape this two speed approach is anyone's guess
However, how can you retain influence in "the heart of Europe" whilst not being at its centre?
I am quite bowled over.
Showing again he's much smarter than the flaccid Tory propaganda about him tries to make it appear.
Let the Tories implode over the EU. Ed's given them a whole year to do it and I'm sure the they will take the opportunity now afforded to them.
On topic, I have a suspicion that Miliband has been 'too clever by half',tying treaty change to 'in/out', rather than as current legislation, the change itself. In any case, its being presented as 'No EU Vote from Labour' so the details may not matter much.....
Then the WP came out.
Now the unionists are going: we don't want to see the details, we don't think sorting out Scottish independence is worth less than one per cent of the money bungled by MoD on refitting the electronics of a few helicopters ...
"Beware: incoming statistics. GERS is back on Wednesday morning.
Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland isn't the most riveting read, but it matters a lot in the independence debate.
It is the assessment of Scottish government statisticians of how much Scotland raises in tax, and how much is spent by government on Scots.
This will be the 20th set of these annual figures. They were first devised as a means by which Conservative ministers could demonstrate how generously Scotland was treated by Whitehall."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-26538402
A bit of a convoluted read, but interesting.
I have been assured for months (including by some on this site) that the No campaign don't have to say what a No vote means because it is just the same old business as usual (as if the UK economy isn't circling the cistern ready to go down the U bend, never mind the other problems with the UK polity). Now even the prime merchants in the No campaign are falling over themselves to tell me a whole range of completely different stories - from Ruth Davidson's no further change to - oh, fill in the blanks yourselves.
And we have people complaining that the SG actually did a White Paper, after spending months asking for detail detail detail.
If it is the usual No campaign strategy of spreading confusion and sharn like the manure spreader on the farm field up the hill, then there may be some rationale to it, but it's no way to run a country or to involve an informed electorate, never mind the consequences of the lies that have been spr.
Ed is running a canny campaign and is definitely not crap, at least at political tactics.
Ukip - OUT regardless
LibDem - IN regardless
Con - IN with tinkering
Lab - IN or OUT and shake it all about
SNP - IN but OUT temporarily if YES win
PC - IN bilingually
Green - OUT environmentally
I just think that we can't carry on as we are, with all our politicians saying that the EU needs reform, but all of them unwilling to tell us what that reform means.
Brilliant images of nature and parts of the body - well worth a look.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26464400
It's noise. In and Out are basically the same. Miliband seems to be trying Brown's 'five tests to join the euro' line (the first being the Archangel Gabriel descending to earth and telling Brown it was ok).
We do need a referendum. Nobody has ever been asked if we wanted to cede so much sovereignty or join a political organisation that dreams of statehood. Decades ago some people were asked (after we joined) about remaining in a trade agreement. If you agree to be a roommate and then your landlord tries to shag you, you've got the right to rethink the arrangement.
And even then there is that Westminster doctrine that successive gmts aren't bound by their predecessors. Not as if the Tories or the LDs will have many more MPs to lose in Scotland when they do break their promises - though Labour might have a different idea. The Scottish Labour conference will be interesting, but will they manage to produce something more useful than airgun regulation, and more coherent than their plans for child care which fall down because the Treasury grabs all the income tax gained on newly working people so the Scottish Gmt can't use that to offset the cost of child care?.
Carswell represents the intemperate and deluded anti-EU position held by most Tory backbenchers whose demands Cameron cannot placate in any way at all.
When thinking about renegotiation what comes to the minds of most people? Number one is probably the end of free movement of labour, and there is no way, none, zilch, nada, that is going to happen.
Cameron can tinker around the edges with irrelevant posturing on the mirage of benefits tourism or attacking worker rights. But that won't cut it as far as the likes of Carswell are concerned.
Cameron is a busted flush.
It'd be despicable if the legal action won.
"If you agree to be a roommate and then your landlord tries to shag you, you've got the right to rethink the arrangement."
....................................................................
Indeed .... but you don't need to ask the nation if it prefers you to have a shag with the landlord or a bottle of tizer with the roommate. You decide !!
And like any other skill, lack of use will cause waning ability.
What we can do about this is another matter altogether.
The other day I was comparing an A Level maths paper from the early 1970s (http://www.mel-lambert.com/Ruskin/Artwork/Images/Neil_Graham/GCE_Exams/June-1970-Pure-Maths-2-3.jpg) and one from 2013 (http://www.mrbartonmaths.com/resources/A Level Past Papers/Core 1/2013 - Jan/AQA-MPC1-QP-JAN13.PDF) and what is remarkable is how little has changed. It's pretty much the same set of differential and integral calculus questions. That said, the more modern paper spells out much more exactly *how* the questions are to be answered (i.e. "use the remainder theorem") .
If that is what Parliament decides.
It's also worth mentioning that all parties promised a vote on Lisbon, and Labour reneged.
The Lib Dems used to want an In/Out vote, but have since decided that is clearly a stupid policy.
Given the popularity of darts, that’s quite surprising!
Hardly a high hurdle.
In general I would agree, but nowadays we find that many graduates do not have the ability to know whether an answer is in the right order of magnitude or not as they have not been taught/do not use mental arithmetic.
However, when I return to my country village where I was born, people at the weekly cattle (etc) market are not using any form of calculator but automatically do their calculations in their head and they are rarely wrong.
If the people want to leave the EU, they can vote for a party which advocates that.
To say that "no one gives a stuff about it" is also a little naive. Sure, it's not the sort of thing that will drive the majority of people's vote, but everyone I know has an opinion on it, and it is important. You just don't want the hassle of it.
But once they get to 11 or 12 (just as they did in my day), then they stop using their heads and start using calculators. When they leave university, they've not done mental arithmetic for a decade.
I simply don't know what the right solution is.