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Some interesting takeouts of the election in Scotland – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited July 10 in General
imageSome interesting takeouts of the election in Scotland – politicalbetting.com

1) The collapse of the SNP. They lost half a million votes (42% of their 2019 total) and with it 39 seats. Its remaining 9 seats are not remotely safe – 7 of them are in the top 10 most marginal seats in Scotland.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    Tut tut, he should have voted for the Tory or Lib Dem candidate.

    Alex Salmond has admitted voting for the SNP at the General Election despite being the leader of the rival Alba Party.

    The former SNP leader and Scottish First Minister said his party did not field a candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East.


    https://news.stv.tv/politics/alba-leader-alex-salmond-admits-voting-snp-at-general-election-in-aberdeenshire-north-and-moray-east
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,762
    Interesting to see the stats behind the devastating defeat for Le Pen.

    2007 - 0 Seats.
    2012 - 2 Seats.
    2017 - 8 Seats <- We in the UK are Here.
    2022 - 89 Seats.
    2024 - 142 Seats.

    Le Pens Lot will sit happily on the opposition benches munching popcorn as the rest try and form a coalition of chaos offering all sorts of free owls and pensions at 60 that the country dosen't have the money to fund.

    I don't think this bodes well for France.

    At least we have a stable goveenment for the next four and a bit years.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617
    @RochdalePioneers

    Sorry to hear you didnt quite make it, will you be up for another go in 5 years time ?
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,476
    edited July 8
    The scowl on Nicola Sturgeon's face was something to behold when she was interviewed on Election night. I hope she was suffering as much as it appeared that she was.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,422
    a

    Interesting to see the stats behind the devastating defeat for Le Pen.

    2007 - 0 Seats.
    2012 - 2 Seats.
    2017 - 8 Seats (- We in the UK are Here.
    2022 - 89 Seats.
    2024 - 142 Seats.

    Le Pens Lot will sit happily on the opposition benches munching popcorn as the rest try and form a coalition of chaos offering all sorts of free owls and pensions at 60 that the country dosen't have the money to fund.

    I don't think this bodes well for France.

    At least we have a stable goveenment for the next four and a bit years.

    You are missing out some previous decades of the RN (as the Front National) staggering from turgid scandal to scandal and the boot boys putting off people with Roman Salutes.

    The take off had its origin in Le Pen (dad) shoving the more obvious types in a cupboard and draping suits over the rest.

    See the results in 1986….
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    NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 332
    Only thing I would like to add, across Scotland, especially in the Highlands, thousands, if not tens of thousands of SCon voters like me held our noses and voted for the Unionist candidate most likely to beat the SNP. Other than party workers/officials, every Tory I know in Ross and Cromarty, Sutherland and Caithness whom I have spoken to voted LibDem to take down the SNP. One friend in Ian Blackford's former seat who had defected from Tory to Reform even voted LibDem to stop the SNP. If there are no major black or white swans between now and Holyrood 2026, that election could be fascinating.
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    MisterBedfordshireMisterBedfordshire Posts: 1,762
    edited July 8

    a

    Interesting to see the stats behind the devastating defeat for Le Pen.

    2007 - 0 Seats.
    2012 - 2 Seats.
    2017 - 8 Seats (- We in the UK are Here.
    2022 - 89 Seats.
    2024 - 142 Seats.

    Le Pens Lot will sit happily on the opposition benches munching popcorn as the rest try and form a coalition of chaos offering all sorts of free owls and pensions at 60 that the country dosen't have the money to fund.

    I don't think this bodes well for France.

    At least we have a stable goveenment for the next four and a bit years.

    You are missing out some previous decades of the RN (as the Front National) staggering from turgid scandal to scandal and the boot boys putting off people with Roman Salutes.

    The take off had its origin in Le Pen (dad) shoving the more obvious types in a cupboard and draping suits over the rest.

    See the results in 1986….
    I think Leon is right that they will not get a majority if they are run by a Le Pen, short of an economic calamity.

    So far the French stock and bond markets have not taken fright at the result.

    Presumably Macron will be trying to prise apart the left wing coalition and govern with the saner parts of it.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645

    a

    Interesting to see the stats behind the devastating defeat for Le Pen.

    2007 - 0 Seats.
    2012 - 2 Seats.
    2017 - 8 Seats (- We in the UK are Here.
    2022 - 89 Seats.
    2024 - 142 Seats.

    Le Pens Lot will sit happily on the opposition benches munching popcorn as the rest try and form a coalition of chaos offering all sorts of free owls and pensions at 60 that the country dosen't have the money to fund.

    I don't think this bodes well for France.

    At least we have a stable goveenment for the next four and a bit years.

    You are missing out some previous decades of the RN (as the Front National) staggering from turgid scandal to scandal and the boot boys putting off people with Roman Salutes.

    The take off had its origin in Le Pen (dad) shoving the more obvious types in a cupboard and draping suits over the rest.

    See the results in 1986….
    There was nothing that unusual about the RN vote share, 19%, in 2022. What was unusual was that in their areas of strength, a lot of people stopped voting for whichever candidate was best placed to stop them. They remain transfer-unfriendly, but a lot less transfer-unfriendly than in the past.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194

    @RochdalePioneers

    Sorry to hear you didnt quite make it, will you be up for another go in 5 years time ?

    I'm basically standing in every election there is now. Like Screaming Lord Sutch only less loony.
    ...if the local members will have me, I am sure you meant to add. Little things like that matter when you're in the public eye.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    Well done @RochdalePioneers and Scotland to reject 2 failed government's at one election.

    It sets up an interesting Holyrood election in the not too distant future. Are you running in that one?

    Anyone know how many of the 36 new SLab MPs have political experience as former MPs?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194

    a

    Interesting to see the stats behind the devastating defeat for Le Pen.

    2007 - 0 Seats.
    2012 - 2 Seats.
    2017 - 8 Seats (- We in the UK are Here.
    2022 - 89 Seats.
    2024 - 142 Seats.

    Le Pens Lot will sit happily on the opposition benches munching popcorn as the rest try and form a coalition of chaos offering all sorts of free owls and pensions at 60 that the country dosen't have the money to fund.

    I don't think this bodes well for France.

    At least we have a stable goveenment for the next four and a bit years.

    You are missing out some previous decades of the RN (as the Front National) staggering from turgid scandal to scandal and the boot boys putting off people with Roman Salutes.

    The take off had its origin in Le Pen (dad) shoving the more obvious types in a cupboard and draping suits over the rest.

    See the results in 1986….
    I think Leon is right that they will not get a majority if they are run by a Le Pen, short of an economic calamity.

    So far the French stock and bond markets have not taken fright at the result.

    Presumably Macron will be trying to prise apart the left wing coalition and govern with the saner parts of it.
    Lol @ "if Leon is right". Once again, he's been totally wrong, and working out that Le Pen isn't very popular after he's seen the election result is hardly an achievement.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    Scottish election results show you can rise as rapidly as you can fall, and with 30%, the SNP still have a substantial base of support. A Labour government will give them less to direct the voters' anger against than a Conservative government, but there certainly be issues. 45% still support independence, so that gives them a big pool of potential voters, even if they now have to face Unionist tactical voting.

    The Conservatives did badly, but their vote is a lot more effiicent than in the past. In 1997, they won no seats on 16%. This time, they won 5 on 13%.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    IanB2 said:

    a

    Interesting to see the stats behind the devastating defeat for Le Pen.

    2007 - 0 Seats.
    2012 - 2 Seats.
    2017 - 8 Seats (- We in the UK are Here.
    2022 - 89 Seats.
    2024 - 142 Seats.

    Le Pens Lot will sit happily on the opposition benches munching popcorn as the rest try and form a coalition of chaos offering all sorts of free owls and pensions at 60 that the country dosen't have the money to fund.

    I don't think this bodes well for France.

    At least we have a stable goveenment for the next four and a bit years.

    You are missing out some previous decades of the RN (as the Front National) staggering from turgid scandal to scandal and the boot boys putting off people with Roman Salutes.

    The take off had its origin in Le Pen (dad) shoving the more obvious types in a cupboard and draping suits over the rest.

    See the results in 1986….
    I think Leon is right that they will not get a majority if they are run by a Le Pen, short of an economic calamity.

    So far the French stock and bond markets have not taken fright at the result.

    Presumably Macron will be trying to prise apart the left wing coalition and govern with the saner parts of it.
    Lol @ "if Leon is right". Once again, he's been totally wrong, and working out that Le Pen isn't very popular after he's seen the election result is hardly an achievement.
    Strange how on his wanderings he found lots of Le Pennites but no one from the NPF. It's almost as if he only found what he wanted to see.

    I did advise him to seek out French Tacos (that weird hybrid of Algerian and Mexican food) and see the other side of France.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,399

    Only thing I would like to add, across Scotland, especially in the Highlands, thousands, if not tens of thousands of SCon voters like me held our noses and voted for the Unionist candidate most likely to beat the SNP. Other than party workers/officials, every Tory I know in Ross and Cromarty, Sutherland and Caithness whom I have spoken to voted LibDem to take down the SNP. One friend in Ian Blackford's former seat who had defected from Tory to Reform even voted LibDem to stop the SNP. If there are no major black or white swans between now and Holyrood 2026, that election could be fascinating.

    I appreciate that - the "stop the SNP" motivation is strong. I confess to not paying much attention to the campaign west of Nairn - did the Tories run on the same "only we can stop the SNP" graphic as was tediously recycled on every campaign graphic they had in the NE?
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    kjhkjh Posts: 11,138

    @RochdalePioneers

    Sorry to hear you didnt quite make it, will you be up for another go in 5 years time ?

    I'm basically standing in every election there is now. Like Screaming Lord Sutch only less loony.
    We have a guy who stands at every opportunity. He was the LD candidate in Mole Valley for the last few elections, but didn't get selected this time. He got beaten in an amicable selection process. I felt sorry for him having done all that work and then missing out on the final success, particularly as he appears to have disappeared. I need not of worried. He was parachuted into one of the Ayr seat's (you know that local to Surrey place) as a paper candidate. You can't keep him down. Any mention of an election and he will stand.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372
    A tactful visit from Starmer to Scotland yesterday. When you have soundly beaten your opposition you can afford to be tactful of course.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    edited July 8
    Where I lead the rest of the Tory party follows.

    Time to admit our electoral system is finished

    First past the post is now a threat to our political stability


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/07/first-past-the-post-is-over/

    But really good news about this is that I will have even more opportunities to do PB threads on AV/electoral reform over the next few years.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    edited July 8
    Still enjoying this from yesterday:
    Leon said:


    Leaked exit poll

    RN first but no overall majority


    🇫🇷 #Francia — Exit Poll La Libre Belgique:

    ⚫️ #RN: circa 200 seggi
    🔴 #NFP: circa 170
    🟡 #ENS: circa 140
    🔵 #LR: circa 60

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4887180/#Comment_4887180


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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,617

    Where I lead the rest of the Tory party follows.

    Time to admit our electoral system is finished

    First past the post is now a threat to our political stability


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/07/first-past-the-post-is-over/

    LOL

    until they win and then they will quietly drop the whole idea
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,676

    a

    Interesting to see the stats behind the devastating defeat for Le Pen.

    2007 - 0 Seats.
    2012 - 2 Seats.
    2017 - 8 Seats (- We in the UK are Here.
    2022 - 89 Seats.
    2024 - 142 Seats.

    Le Pens Lot will sit happily on the opposition benches munching popcorn as the rest try and form a coalition of chaos offering all sorts of free owls and pensions at 60 that the country dosen't have the money to fund.

    I don't think this bodes well for France.

    At least we have a stable goveenment for the next four and a bit years.

    You are missing out some previous decades of the RN (as the Front National) staggering from turgid scandal to scandal and the boot boys putting off people with Roman Salutes.

    The take off had its origin in Le Pen (dad) shoving the more obvious types in a cupboard and draping suits over the rest.

    See the results in 1986….
    I did AS French in 1990 or so, and one of the themes was the rise of le Pen pere (there was a paper on contemporary French society). Got a distinct memory of shocking the French assistante at my sixth form by saying that le Pen didn't worry me, because of the whole "enough people hate fascists enough that they will vote for literally anyone else" thing. Except in French.

    This was before "vote for the crook not the Nazi" and before this week, but it still applies. The hard right continues to have two big problems. The first is that you can't add mainstream right to hard right and get a win. The wets tend to peel off, and you can't stop them by telling them off. The other is that the Great Leader is so important. Hard right parties led by nobodies don't work, and once you have an obvious Furher, people notice and a fair few run away
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    PR is the work of Satan. Wanting to fiddle the electoral system because you lose is akin to a football team that loses 2-0 insisting that possession % should dictate the winner and that goals shouldn't be the deciding factor.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033
    edited July 8

    PR is the work of Satan. Wanting to fiddle the electoral system because you lose is akin to a football team that loses 2-0 insisting that possession % should dictate the winner and that goals shouldn't be the deciding factor.

    You've got a 19th century view on association football.

    It's all about the xG now which is just like PR.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    Where I lead the rest of the Tory party follows.

    Time to admit our electoral system is finished

    First past the post is now a threat to our political stability


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/07/first-past-the-post-is-over/

    But really good news about this is that I will have even more opportunities to do PB threads on AV/electoral reform over the next few years.

    Looking forward to that, although I doubt PR would help the Tories much - the right are nearly always behind the left in voter share in the UK.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Mr. Eagles, I don't pay that much attention to football. Far less interesting than F1. Rather a good season is 2024. Both Canadian and British races will loom long in the memory.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    IanB2 said:

    a

    Interesting to see the stats behind the devastating defeat for Le Pen.

    2007 - 0 Seats.
    2012 - 2 Seats.
    2017 - 8 Seats (- We in the UK are Here.
    2022 - 89 Seats.
    2024 - 142 Seats.

    Le Pens Lot will sit happily on the opposition benches munching popcorn as the rest try and form a coalition of chaos offering all sorts of free owls and pensions at 60 that the country dosen't have the money to fund.

    I don't think this bodes well for France.

    At least we have a stable goveenment for the next four and a bit years.

    You are missing out some previous decades of the RN (as the Front National) staggering from turgid scandal to scandal and the boot boys putting off people with Roman Salutes.

    The take off had its origin in Le Pen (dad) shoving the more obvious types in a cupboard and draping suits over the rest.

    See the results in 1986….
    I think Leon is right that they will not get a majority if they are run by a Le Pen, short of an economic calamity.

    So far the French stock and bond markets have not taken fright at the result.

    Presumably Macron will be trying to prise apart the left wing coalition and govern with the saner parts of it.
    Lol @ "if Leon is right". Once again, he's been totally wrong, and working out that Le Pen isn't very popular after he's seen the election result is hardly an achievement.
    I think of Leon as the Mad Hatter of Camden Town. He has a stack of hats, sometimes amusing:

    Hat 1 - "Let's Cosplay, Ernest Hemingway"
    Hat 2 - "North London's answer to Frank Spencer"
    Hat 3 - "Good Morning Madam, I'm PT Barnum"

    I'm sure there are more, including one about being a reviewer of slate dildos.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    Still enjoying this from yesterday:


    Leon said:


    Leaked exit poll

    RN first but no overall majority


    🇫🇷 #Francia — Exit Poll La Libre Belgique:

    ⚫️ #RN: circa 200 seggi
    🔴 #NFP: circa 170
    🟡 #ENS: circa 140
    🔵 #LR: circa 60

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4887180/#Comment_4887180


    Leon was wrong?

    No.

    Leon was even wrong than usual when ramping the far right?

    Still he was very quiet on the thread pointing Matt Goodwin's firm was the most inaccurate pollster.
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 7,157

    Still enjoying this from yesterday:


    Leon said:


    Leaked exit poll

    RN first but no overall majority


    🇫🇷 #Francia — Exit Poll La Libre Belgique:

    ⚫️ #RN: circa 200 seggi
    🔴 #NFP: circa 170
    🟡 #ENS: circa 140
    🔵 #LR: circa 60

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4887180/#Comment_4887180


    France's Suzanne Couloir moment
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 117,033

    Mr. Eagles, I don't pay that much attention to football. Far less interesting than F1. Rather a good season is 2024. Both Canadian and British races will loom long in the memory.

    I had tickets to the British Grand Prix.

    I gave away my tickets a month ago after my operation thinking I wouldn't be able to go.

    I was fine to go.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915

    Still enjoying this from yesterday:


    Leon said:


    Leaked exit poll

    RN first but no overall majority


    🇫🇷 #Francia — Exit Poll La Libre Belgique:

    ⚫️ #RN: circa 200 seggi
    🔴 #NFP: circa 170
    🟡 #ENS: circa 140
    🔵 #LR: circa 60

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4887180/#Comment_4887180


    Leon was wrong?

    No.

    Leon was even wrong than usual when ramping the far right?

    Still he was very quiet on the thread pointing Matt Goodwin's firm was the most inaccurate pollster.
    He probably got that leaked poll from Virginia Woolf's granddaughter.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,639

    PR is the work of Satan. Wanting to fiddle the electoral system because you lose is akin to a football team that loses 2-0 insisting that possession % should dictate the winner and that goals shouldn't be the deciding factor.

    We won a landslide. We don't deserve it on our vote share. FPTP is undemocratic. We should have PR.

    You can't say that I am a sore loser.
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    Unless I’m reading the results wrong, LPF were 3m votes behind RN but because of the way that the tactical voting worked came first on seats.

    I’m not sure that bodes well. It’s a bullet dodged but the RN scored by far the highest number of votes (over 10% more on my understanding?). That would be a bit like Labour falling short of a majority on Thursday 10 points ahead of the Tories. It’s the electoral system and alliances that have caused the result.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,904

    Where I lead the rest of the Tory party follows.

    Time to admit our electoral system is finished

    First past the post is now a threat to our political stability


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/07/first-past-the-post-is-over/

    But really good news about this is that I will have even more opportunities to do PB threads on AV/electoral reform over the next few years.

    "First past the post is now a threat to our political stability" is about as wrong a take as you can get.
    What they mean is that it's become a threat to the political right, which had previously benefitted from its vagaries.

    Political stability/instability is a fact of life under any electoral system.
    The point is rather that PR is more democratic.

    I'd argue that it's also much less likely to discourage political participation in the way which is inevitable under FPTP.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Mr. Eagles, could be worse. You could've attended the Monaco Grand Prix.

    Mr. Rentool, that's a fair comment. You are consistently wrong, and do not alter your views based on victory or defeat.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,904

    Mr. Eagles, I don't pay that much attention to football. Far less interesting than F1. Rather a good season is 2024. Both Canadian and British races will loom long in the memory.

    Hungary next.
    Depending on the weather, it could be another nail biter.
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    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,627

    Unless I’m reading the results wrong, LPF were 3m votes behind RN but because of the way that the tactical voting worked came first on seats.

    I’m not sure that bodes well. It’s a bullet dodged but the RN scored by far the highest number of votes (over 10% more on my understanding?). That would be a bit like Labour falling short of a majority on Thursday 10 points ahead of the Tories. It’s the electoral system and alliances that have caused the result.

    ..it was tactical voting surely...

    You wouldn't need tactical voting in a PR system because you start voting for what you want, not what you don't want.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,671
    Marine Le Pen needs to stand aside and let Bardella be the Presidential nominee if the NF want to win that .

    The French will not put a Le Pen into the Elysee.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 58,106
    If we ever had PR it would need to be open list, ideally by county or groups of counties, and not STV, which is the work of Satan.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,309
    Mr. B, Hungary can be intensely boring due to the difficulty of overtaking. But I do remember one race when Rosberg got shafted by the safety car timing and, I think, Ricciardo had a great victory.

    Current Budapest weather looks persistently hot which may be bad for Mercedes.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588

    Where I lead the rest of the Tory party follows.

    Time to admit our electoral system is finished

    First past the post is now a threat to our political stability


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/07/07/first-past-the-post-is-over/

    But really good news about this is that I will have even more opportunities to do PB threads on AV/electoral reform over the next few years.

    Turning from what Labour won't do (PR) to what will happen, it is clear from all this that in England and Scotland tactical voting is the new fashion, even while the number of of parties nationally relevant has increased recently from 3 to 5. It can work for or against any party; but the obvious national gainer is the LDs. Also, the LDs will have noticed that their tactical advantage in a tactical vote world is in alliance with Labour, with whom they don't compete directly, and not the Tories, with whom they do.

    In Scotland it's going to be unionists v SNP.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,904

    If we ever had PR it would need to be open list, ideally by county or groups of counties, and not STV, which is the work of Satan.

    I look forward to TSE educating us all in the near future.

    STV was actually the work of an English lawyer, Thomas Hare.
    And we know TSE's line on lawyers.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    A matter to note; the new Chief Treasury Sec repeated the bogus Tory formula for the future of debt: No figures but target is for debt as % of GDP to be falling in the fifth year ahead (currently 2029).

    There are 3 bogus elements:
    1) Bogus: we continue to reduce debt by further borrowing
    2) Bogus: There is no plan to reduce or pay off debt at all
    3) And worst bogus: The five year target moves forward a year every year. It has no meaning except as a future projection for a date which never arrives.

    Expect the plan to become 'falling in the 10th year' in due course. Labour have adopted a catastrophic policy.
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    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Neoliberals showing their soft underbelly to the left continued in France - have I died and gone to heaven? First Starmer underperforms, loses seats to Greens and Independents and is unable to "close the door" on the revival of the left under Corbynism, now the Left Alliance beats RN and La Republique. Left wing wins keep coming - next up will be Biden dropping out and a surprise entry from Bernie sweeping up whatever process they put in place... (that last one is a joke; or is it?)
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    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    If we ever had PR it would need to be open list, ideally by county or groups of counties, and not STV, which is the work of Satan.

    I wouldn't dislike the GLA / Germany system - representatives for certain areas and then a top up system. The thing is that if you do do that lots of people are going to be annoyed about how they're grouped (likely me included) because geographically close areas of this country do not necessarily have similar political interests. Plus, you know, people will keep forgetting (as they always do with election maps) that land doesn't vote, but people do...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    edited July 8
    Labour will certainly be hoping to repeat their general election success in 2026 and oust the SNP from power at Holyrood.

    While not a great night for Scottish Tories it was certainly better for them relatively than their English counterparts. they held over 3/4 of their seats and avoided the wipeout they got in 1997. Indeed the Tories still have more MPs north of the border than they did for the whole 2 decades from 1997-2017.

    The huge change from 2019 is shown by the fact there are now more Scottish Conservative MPs than Conservative MPs from the redwall and the same number of Conservative MPs in Scotland as there are in Surrey
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,122
    148grss said:

    Neoliberals showing their soft underbelly to the left continued in France - have I died and gone to heaven? First Starmer underperforms, loses seats to Greens and Independents and is unable to "close the door" on the revival of the left under Corbynism, now the Left Alliance beats RN and La Republique. Left wing wins keep coming - next up will be Biden dropping out and a surprise entry from Bernie sweeping up whatever process they put in place... (that last one is a joke; or is it?)

    bernie is too old as well and AOC is showing no signs of running this summer if there is a race.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588

    If we ever had PR it would need to be open list, ideally by county or groups of counties, and not STV, which is the work of Satan.

    AV is the only change needed. You can then vote as now but putting your real choice first and your choice from the candidates likely to come first or second, second.

    So in 2017 you are an LD in a Tory/Lab marginal where the LD gets 8% of the vote. You dislike Jezza but you dislike May even more. Under AV you vote (1) LD (2) Labour, and your vote counts. You can omit the second choice if you like.

    (a) more votes count
    (b) it gives a chance to new parties with stickability.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489

    Still enjoying this from yesterday:


    Leon said:


    Leaked exit poll

    RN first but no overall majority


    🇫🇷 #Francia — Exit Poll La Libre Belgique:

    ⚫️ #RN: circa 200 seggi
    🔴 #NFP: circa 170
    🟡 #ENS: circa 140
    🔵 #LR: circa 60

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4887180/#Comment_4887180


    ....,found scrunched up in a Luberon pissoir.....
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    glwglw Posts: 9,743
    edited July 8
    Several top House Democrats say Biden should step aside during leadership call
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/07/politics/house-democrats-biden-out/index.html

    The number of lawmakers who explicitly said Biden should not be the Democratic nominee was greater than the number who spoke up for him to stay, according to one of the sources.

    It does seem like a lot of people want Biden to step down, and it's now a matter of can he be persuaded to do so.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,454

    The scowl on Nicola Sturgeon's face was something to behold when she was interviewed on Election night. I hope she was suffering as much as it appeared that she was.

    Not suffering enough yet. Wait till the plod call back. I assume operations stopped during the election, but justice needs to be done (whatever the outcome).
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    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,229
    Can't see through the paywall but here's the headline

    "Who can now stop Trump? It’s not Kamala, but there is a woman who can
    It’s time to bring in the cavalry, the kind with good cheekbones and luscious brown locks."

    Which seems insane even by telegraph standards. Also seems probable there is another respect in which whitmers personal appearance trumps Harris in telegraph eyes. I don't know but I been told that Dems would lose a massive proportion of the black vote by sidelining KH.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372
    edited July 8

    Unless I’m reading the results wrong, LPF were 3m votes behind RN but because of the way that the tactical voting worked came first on seats.

    I’m not sure that bodes well. It’s a bullet dodged but the RN scored by far the highest number of votes (over 10% more on my understanding?). That would be a bit like Labour falling short of a majority on Thursday 10 points ahead of the Tories. It’s the electoral system and alliances that have caused the result.

    It raises an important point but I think it's democracy working, not the other way round. The left and centre alliances intended to impose a pseudo PR system on top of a two phase FPTP system. It turned out extremely successful.

    The important point is RN is extremely transfer unfriendly. Almost everyone will choose anyone other than RN if their preferred candidate is not available. Le Pen has more votes than anyone else but she can't work a coalition. She can only win if she is the biggest party and gets a majority under FPTP.

    The message from this election is the two thirds of the French population who don't support Le Pen have given all the other parties a mandate to sort something out between them. Whether they do or not remains to be seen.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,454
    FF43 said:

    A tactful visit from Starmer to Scotland yesterday. When you have soundly beaten your opposition you can afford to be tactful of course.

    Tactful, or the chance to say "sorry, your time is over"?
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    edited July 8
    Rachel Reeves' speech will be interesting later.

    I'm quite taken by her term "Grey Belt" for mess ^ scrub in the Green Belt.

    Putting housing targets back on local authorities is a good move.

    I wonder if she has a "little list" of Rishi's Hail Mary Passes to consider reversing?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,733

    Mr. Eagles, I don't pay that much attention to football. Far less interesting than F1. Rather a good season is 2024. Both Canadian and British races will loom long in the memory.

    I had tickets to the British Grand Prix.

    I gave away my tickets a month ago after my operation thinking I wouldn't be able to go.

    I was fine to go.
    Oh no, that’s rather unfortunate. Never seen Lewis so emotional after a race, and there were very few dry eyes at Silverstone when he got out of the car and hugged his father. Two-and-a-half years of feelings coming out all at once.

    Lewis’s interview with Sky afterwards https://x.com/lh44_insights/status/1809987209891619116
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707
    edited July 8

    FF43 said:

    A tactful visit from Starmer to Scotland yesterday. When you have soundly beaten your opposition you can afford to be tactful of course.

    Tactful, or the chance to say "sorry, your time is over"?
    Just talking. That in itself is a huge improvement over the Tories. There was also a party rally for the other stuff, of course; but, as I say, it's a great change.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    edited July 8
    In terms of Holyrood I would make three arguments.

    Firstly, I think there was a dynamic of voting for Labour in order to be part of replacing the Tory government in London with a Labour one. That dynamic won't exist in the Holyrood elections, and so it reduces somewhat the impetus to vote Labour.

    Secondly, however, the drop in the SNP vote does look a lot like the drop in the Tory vote. The SNP have been in government at Holyrood for a long time. They are mired in scandal and have begun to change leaders a bit too often to inspire confidence. They are incumbents at a time of dissatisfaction. Like with the Tories and the split of the vote with Reform, they face the potential of their vote splitting with the Greens. This could particularly hurt them with the AMS in use in Scotland, if they lose the FPTP seats to Labour, and shed votes to the Greens for the top-up seats.

    Thirdly is the matter of timing. A 2025 Holyrood election might have suited Labour better than 2026. There is potential for the SNP to recover their position somewhat by feeding off accumulating disappointment with Starmer's government in London.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    edited July 8
    148grss said:

    Neoliberals showing their soft underbelly to the left continued in France - have I died and gone to heaven? First Starmer underperforms, loses seats to Greens and Independents and is unable to "close the door" on the revival of the left under Corbynism, now the Left Alliance beats RN and La Republique. Left wing wins keep coming - next up will be Biden dropping out and a surprise entry from Bernie sweeping up whatever process they put in place... (that last one is a joke; or is it?)

    Starmer got over 400 seats, more than Labour have got since New Labour in 1997 and 2001, the Greens got no more seats than Reform. RN and Les Republicains combined got more seats in France than the Left Alliance.

    Biden certainly won't be dropping out for Sanders
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    edited July 8
    nico679 said:

    Marine Le Pen needs to stand aside and let Bardella be the Presidential nominee if the NF want to win that .

    The French will not put a Le Pen into the Elysee.

    Nor a Bardella in the Hotel Matignon
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,454
    148grss said:

    Neoliberals showing their soft underbelly to the left continued in France - have I died and gone to heaven? First Starmer underperforms, loses seats to Greens and Independents and is unable to "close the door" on the revival of the left under Corbynism, now the Left Alliance beats RN and La Republique. Left wing wins keep coming - next up will be Biden dropping out and a surprise entry from Bernie sweeping up whatever process they put in place... (that last one is a joke; or is it?)

    Starmer who won a huge landslide? That Starmer? Looking forward to watching Turkey play Switzerland on wednesday night on that logic.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,194

    Can't see through the paywall but here's the headline

    "Who can now stop Trump? It’s not Kamala, but there is a woman who can
    It’s time to bring in the cavalry, the kind with good cheekbones and luscious brown locks."

    Which seems insane even by telegraph standards. Also seems probable there is another respect in which whitmers personal appearance trumps Harris in telegraph eyes. I don't know but I been told that Dems would lose a massive proportion of the black vote by sidelining KH.
    It'd feel rather wrong to sideline KH anyway. I'd imagine that she could have her arm twisted as to a running mate though. (Although perhaps there are some procedural hurdles there? I think I read that there were.)
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,733
    edited July 8
    glw said:

    Several top House Democrats say Biden should step aside during leadership call
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/07/politics/house-democrats-biden-out/index.html

    The number of lawmakers who explicitly said Biden should not be the Democratic nominee was greater than the number who spoke up for him to stay, according to one of the sources.

    It does seem like a lot of people want Biden to step down, and it's now a matter of can he be persuaded to do so.
    The debate from last week starts to come across as a stitch-up against the President, there’s been such a co-ordinated response to it since before they even left the stage. There’s no way that everyone in his own party thought he was doing just fine until that moment, when it’s been clear for years that he’s been getting noticeably older and slower.

    The problem now is how to deal with Kamala Harris, who’s polling is even worse than Biden’s, but she was a diversity hire so can’t be swapped out easily without upsetting people.

    Meanwhile, some of us first mentioned Gretchen Whitmer a long time ago ;)
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    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Neoliberals showing their soft underbelly to the left continued in France - have I died and gone to heaven? First Starmer underperforms, loses seats to Greens and Independents and is unable to "close the door" on the revival of the left under Corbynism, now the Left Alliance beats RN and La Republique. Left wing wins keep coming - next up will be Biden dropping out and a surprise entry from Bernie sweeping up whatever process they put in place... (that last one is a joke; or is it?)

    Starmer got over 400 seats, more than Labour have got since New Labour in 2001, the Greens got no more seats than Reform. RN and Les Republicains combined got more seats in France than the Left Alliance.

    Biden certainly won't be dropping out for Sanders
    In terms of seats - Labour's vote was highly efficient. In terms of popular support for Starmer's vision of the UK, he got fewer votes than Corbyn in '17 and '19 and lost seats to his left. He couldn't even beat Corbyn. The British left don't get many wins - but this looks good from our point of view. It shows that this Labour government is only in because people wanted the Tories out. In 5 years the electorate are unlikely to have forgiven the Tories and will dislike the government, so the left with have a greater chance to make gains. Reform did better than the Greens, on vote share and seats, but then Farage has always had outsized coverage and Reform had much more funding than the Greens did.

    And yes, that's why I said it was a joke. Unless...?
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    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    148grss said:

    Neoliberals showing their soft underbelly to the left continued in France - have I died and gone to heaven? First Starmer underperforms, loses seats to Greens and Independents and is unable to "close the door" on the revival of the left under Corbynism, now the Left Alliance beats RN and La Republique. Left wing wins keep coming - next up will be Biden dropping out and a surprise entry from Bernie sweeping up whatever process they put in place... (that last one is a joke; or is it?)

    Starmer who won a huge landslide? That Starmer? Looking forward to watching Turkey play Switzerland on wednesday night on that logic.
    Starmer won more seats under FPTP - and got fewer votes and a lower vote share than Corbyn in '17 and '19.

    Politics isn't like a football game - it should be an expression of the public's desires, not an expression of skills of a team / individual. If you look at the results and the vote distribution you see a clear story - people wanted to kick the Tories out and, in areas where there was no risk of the Tories winning, Labour underperformed. This bodes well for the left.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 50,567
    Nigelb said:

    If we ever had PR it would need to be open list, ideally by county or groups of counties, and not STV, which is the work of Satan.

    I look forward to TSE educating us all in the near future.

    STV was actually the work of an English lawyer, Thomas Hare.
    And we know TSE's line on lawyers.
    If STV is good enough for the NI Assembly set up by the GFA...
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460

    Interesting to see the stats behind the devastating defeat for Le Pen.

    2007 - 0 Seats.
    2012 - 2 Seats.
    2017 - 8 Seats

    Reinstating pensions at 60 is also fash policy.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,904

    Can't see through the paywall but here's the headline

    "Who can now stop Trump? It’s not Kamala, but there is a woman who can
    It’s time to bring in the cavalry, the kind with good cheekbones and luscious brown locks."

    Which seems insane even by telegraph standards. Also seems probable there is another respect in which whitmers personal appearance trumps Harris in telegraph eyes. I don't know but I been told that Dems would lose a massive proportion of the black vote by sidelining KH.
    The Telegraph is like reading something written by Leon, but without either the political judgment or literary style.
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    TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,229
    Sandpit said:

    glw said:

    Several top House Democrats say Biden should step aside during leadership call
    https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/07/politics/house-democrats-biden-out/index.html

    The number of lawmakers who explicitly said Biden should not be the Democratic nominee was greater than the number who spoke up for him to stay, according to one of the sources.

    It does seem like a lot of people want Biden to step down, and it's now a matter of can he be persuaded to do so.
    The debate from last week starts to come across as a stitch-up against the President, there’s been such a co-ordinated response to it since before they even left the stage. There’s no way that everyone in his own party thought he was doing just fine until that moment, when it’s been clear for years that he’s been getting noticeably older and slower.

    The problem now is how to deal with Kamala Harris, who’s polling is even worse than Biden’s, but she was a diversity hire so can’t be swapped out easily without upsetting people.

    Meanwhile, some of us first mentioned Gretchen Whitmer a long time ago ;)
    Not a stitch up, a me too, emperor's new clothes kinda moment. Everyone knew, it just became ok to say so (that, and he has deteriorated). My hopes for KH are that she gets a boost from becoming actual vs hypothetical in polling questions, and that Trump can't cope with a young black female opponent. And that she shortens further enabling me to green up.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    a

    Interesting to see the stats behind the devastating defeat for Le Pen.

    2007 - 0 Seats.
    2012 - 2 Seats.
    2017 - 8 Seats (- We in the UK are Here.
    2022 - 89 Seats.
    2024 - 142 Seats.

    Le Pens Lot will sit happily on the opposition benches munching popcorn as the rest try and form a coalition of chaos offering all sorts of free owls and pensions at 60 that the country dosen't have the money to fund.

    I don't think this bodes well for France.

    At least we have a stable goveenment for the next four and a bit years.

    You are missing out some previous decades of the RN (as the Front National) staggering from turgid scandal to scandal and the boot boys putting off people with Roman Salutes.

    The take off had its origin in Le Pen (dad) shoving the more obvious types in a cupboard and draping suits over the rest.

    See the results in 1986….
    I think Leon is right that they will not get a majority if they are run by a Le Pen, short of an economic calamity.

    So far the French stock and bond markets have not taken fright at the result.

    Presumably Macron will be trying to prise apart the left wing coalition and govern with the saner parts of it.
    Lol @ "if Leon is right". Once again, he's been totally wrong, and working out that Le Pen isn't very popular after he's seen the election result is hardly an achievement.
    Strange how on his wanderings he found lots of Le Pennites but no one from the NPF. It's almost as if he only found what he wanted to see.

    I did advise him to seek out French Tacos (that weird hybrid of Algerian and Mexican food) and see the other side of France.
    Actually, there are a lot more RN voters than NPF, so you would be more likely to meet them.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    I’m enjoying the fact that the French Fash are basically saying it’s unfair that too many people voted against them.

    Why are folk on the hard right *such* fragile snowflakes?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498

    In terms of Holyrood I would make three arguments.

    Firstly, I think there was a dynamic of voting for Labour in order to be part of replacing the Tory government in London with a Labour one. That dynamic won't exist in the Holyrood elections, and so it reduces somewhat the impetus to vote Labour.

    Secondly, however, the drop in the SNP vote does look a lot like the drop in the Tory vote. The SNP have been in government at Holyrood for a long time. They are mired in scandal and have begun to change leaders a bit too often to inspire confidence. They are incumbents at a time of dissatisfaction. Like with the Tories and the split of the vote with Reform, they face the potential of their vote splitting with the Greens. This could particularly hurt them with the AMS in use in Scotland, if they lose the FPTP seats to Labour, and shed votes to the Greens for the top-up seats.

    Thirdly is the matter of timing. A 2025 Holyrood election might have suited Labour better than 2026. There is potential for the SNP to recover their position somewhat by feeding off accumulating disappointment with Starmer's government in London.

    A minority Labour government in Scotland is the most likely outcome in 2026
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    How does one go about requesting to do a thread header? I'd be willing to do a piece explaining why I, someone on the left, was very happy with the election results last week and why I believe it shows Labour's weakness (although John Curtice has made the same argument, so you could just read his piece...)

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/john-curtice-general-election-labour-victory-results-7cpgvbrcs

    Going into this election the suggestion was Starmer would have wrapped up the left wing for good and will get on with "sensible, grown up, politics". Well, the left is alive and well - sure, nowhere near power - but not cowed.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    MattW said:

    Rachel Reeves' speech will be interesting later.

    I'm quite taken by her term "Grey Belt" for mess ^ scrub in the Green Belt.

    Putting housing targets back on local authorities is a good move.

    I wonder if she has a "little list" of Rishi's Hail Mary Passes to consider reversing?

    It’s the right thing to do, but probably not a popular thing to do.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Btw in bliss-it-was-that-dawn-to-be-alive news, my train to London is actually running on time, and with working plugs and air con.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    148grss said:

    Neoliberals showing their soft underbelly to the left continued in France - have I died and gone to heaven? First Starmer underperforms, loses seats to Greens and Independents and is unable to "close the door" on the revival of the left under Corbynism, now the Left Alliance beats RN and La Republique. Left wing wins keep coming - next up will be Biden dropping out and a surprise entry from Bernie sweeping up whatever process they put in place... (that last one is a joke; or is it?)

    208 right wing deputies were elected, compared to 194 left wing. It’s not a left wing victory.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489

    Only thing I would like to add, across Scotland, especially in the Highlands, thousands, if not tens of thousands of SCon voters like me held our noses and voted for the Unionist candidate most likely to beat the SNP. Other than party workers/officials, every Tory I know in Ross and Cromarty, Sutherland and Caithness whom I have spoken to voted LibDem to take down the SNP. One friend in Ian Blackford's former seat who had defected from Tory to Reform even voted LibDem to stop the SNP. If there are no major black or white swans between now and Holyrood 2026, that election could be fascinating.

    Ian Blackford was one of my favourite MPs. Much the most effective opposition leader from any party when the ghastly Johnson was PM.
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    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Sean_F said:

    MattW said:

    Rachel Reeves' speech will be interesting later.

    I'm quite taken by her term "Grey Belt" for mess ^ scrub in the Green Belt.

    Putting housing targets back on local authorities is a good move.

    I wonder if she has a "little list" of Rishi's Hail Mary Passes to consider reversing?

    It’s the right thing to do, but probably not a popular thing to do.
    Tbf now is the time to do this stuff. A lot of plasters hopefully getting ripped off.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    edited July 8
    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Neoliberals showing their soft underbelly to the left continued in France - have I died and gone to heaven? First Starmer underperforms, loses seats to Greens and Independents and is unable to "close the door" on the revival of the left under Corbynism, now the Left Alliance beats RN and La Republique. Left wing wins keep coming - next up will be Biden dropping out and a surprise entry from Bernie sweeping up whatever process they put in place... (that last one is a joke; or is it?)

    Starmer got over 400 seats, more than Labour have got since New Labour in 2001, the Greens got no more seats than Reform. RN and Les Republicains combined got more seats in France than the Left Alliance.

    Biden certainly won't be dropping out for Sanders
    In terms of seats - Labour's vote was highly efficient. In terms of popular support for Starmer's vision of the UK, he got fewer votes than Corbyn in '17 and '19 and lost seats to his left. He couldn't even beat Corbyn. The British left don't get many wins - but this looks good from our point of view. It shows that this Labour government is only in because people wanted the Tories out. In 5 years the electorate are unlikely to have forgiven the Tories and will dislike the government, so the left with have a greater chance to make gains. Reform did better than the Greens, on vote share and seats, but then Farage has always had outsized coverage and Reform had much more funding than the Greens did.

    And yes, that's why I said it was a joke. Unless...?
    In terms of voteshare Starmer got more than Corbyn did in 2019. He also won some Conservative 2019 voters in that increase in Labour voteshare which gave him maximum benefit in marginal seats so that he could afford to lose some votes to the Greens and Independents in safe urban Labour seats and still hold the vast majority of them.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 51,733
    edited July 8
    Sean_F said:

    MattW said:

    Rachel Reeves' speech will be interesting later.

    I'm quite taken by her term "Grey Belt" for mess ^ scrub in the Green Belt.

    Putting housing targets back on local authorities is a good move.

    I wonder if she has a "little list" of Rishi's Hail Mary Passes to consider reversing?

    It’s the right thing to do, but probably not a popular thing to do.
    If ever there was a time for doing the right thing, rather than the popular thing, it’s a week after a landslide majority with five years until the next election.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,676
    Sean_F said:

    MattW said:

    Rachel Reeves' speech will be interesting later.

    I'm quite taken by her term "Grey Belt" for mess ^ scrub in the Green Belt.

    Putting housing targets back on local authorities is a good move.

    I wonder if she has a "little list" of Rishi's Hail Mary Passes to consider reversing?

    It’s the right thing to do, but probably not a popular thing to do.
    If I were a cynical Labourite, I'd point out that places like Havering and Bromley have an awful lot of land with development potential, so serves them right for voting right.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,018
    edited July 8
    No chance. If Biden drops out it'll be Harris, and she'll be walloped by Trump. If they'd agreed to run with Harris in the call Biden's position would be far shakier this morning, but they didn't. He's still the nominee.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    edited July 8
    FF43 said:

    Unless I’m reading the results wrong, LPF were 3m votes behind RN but because of the way that the tactical voting worked came first on seats.

    I’m not sure that bodes well. It’s a bullet dodged but the RN scored by far the highest number of votes (over 10% more on my understanding?). That would be a bit like Labour falling short of a majority on Thursday 10 points ahead of the Tories. It’s the electoral system and alliances that have caused the result.

    It raises an important point but I think it's democracy working, not the other way round. The left and centre alliances intended to impose a pseudo PR system on top of a two phase FPTP system. It turned out extremely successful.

    The important point is RN is extremely transfer unfriendly. Almost everyone will choose anyone other than RN if their preferred candidate is not available. Le Pen has more votes than anyone else but she can't work a coalition. She can only win if she is the biggest party and gets a majority under FPTP.

    The message from this election is the two thirds of the French population who don't support Le Pen have given all the other parties a mandate to sort something out between them. Whether they do or not remains to be seen.
    In a way, it’s similar to Gerry Adams’ defeat in 1992, on a larger scale. Most of us cheered, but we overlooked that his vote increased.

    The other parties can only agree upon opposing RN, nothing else. And, the Republicans are on the point of disappearing as a force.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498

    Can't see through the paywall but here's the headline

    "Who can now stop Trump? It’s not Kamala, but there is a woman who can
    It’s time to bring in the cavalry, the kind with good cheekbones and luscious brown locks."

    Which seems insane even by telegraph standards. Also seems probable there is another respect in which whitmers personal appearance trumps Harris in telegraph eyes. I don't know but I been told that Dems would lose a massive proportion of the black vote by sidelining KH.
    It wouldn't, the black vote would far prefer Michelle Obama to Harris.

    The rustbelt swing states would prefer Whitmer or even Biden still to Harris too
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Unless I’m reading the results wrong, LPF were 3m votes behind RN but because of the way that the tactical voting worked came first on seats.

    I’m not sure that bodes well. It’s a bullet dodged but the RN scored by far the highest number of votes (over 10% more on my understanding?). That would be a bit like Labour falling short of a majority on Thursday 10 points ahead of the Tories. It’s the electoral system and alliances that have caused the result.

    It raises an important point but I think it's democracy working, not the other way round. The left and centre alliances intended to impose a pseudo PR system on top of a two phase FPTP system. It turned out extremely successful.

    The important point is RN is extremely transfer unfriendly. Almost everyone will choose anyone other than RN if their preferred candidate is not available. Le Pen has more votes than anyone else but she can't work a coalition. She can only win if she is the biggest party and gets a majority under FPTP.

    The message from this election is the two thirds of the French population who don't support Le Pen have given all the other parties a mandate to sort something out between them. Whether they do or not remains to be seen.
    In a way, it’s similar to Gerry Adams’ defeat in 1992, on a larger scale. Most of us cheered, but we overlooked that his vote increased.
    And SF can't get a majority in NI or the Republic even now.

    RN clearly are too toxic to get anywhere near a majority in France or to win the Presidential election without centre right support, at present LR voters clearly still prefer Macron's party in runoffs to RN. LR voters will only hold their nose and vote for RN to keep out Melenchon and the far left
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,454
    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    Neoliberals showing their soft underbelly to the left continued in France - have I died and gone to heaven? First Starmer underperforms, loses seats to Greens and Independents and is unable to "close the door" on the revival of the left under Corbynism, now the Left Alliance beats RN and La Republique. Left wing wins keep coming - next up will be Biden dropping out and a surprise entry from Bernie sweeping up whatever process they put in place... (that last one is a joke; or is it?)

    Starmer who won a huge landslide? That Starmer? Looking forward to watching Turkey play Switzerland on wednesday night on that logic.
    Starmer won more seats under FPTP - and got fewer votes and a lower vote share than Corbyn in '17 and '19.

    Politics isn't like a football game - it should be an expression of the public's desires, not an expression of skills of a team / individual. If you look at the results and the vote distribution you see a clear story - people wanted to kick the Tories out and, in areas where there was no risk of the Tories winning, Labour underperformed. This bodes well for the left.
    Delusion. You are interpreting the results that way you want them. An unpopular Tory government, worn out by 14 years of power plus covid, plus Ukraine, was thrown out by the people. Doesn't mean we are heading for a left wing utopia.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645

    Sean_F said:

    MattW said:

    Rachel Reeves' speech will be interesting later.

    I'm quite taken by her term "Grey Belt" for mess ^ scrub in the Green Belt.

    Putting housing targets back on local authorities is a good move.

    I wonder if she has a "little list" of Rishi's Hail Mary Passes to consider reversing?

    It’s the right thing to do, but probably not a popular thing to do.
    If I were a cynical Labourite, I'd point out that places like Havering and Bromley have an awful lot of land with development potential, so serves them right for voting right.
    But, so have a lot of newly-minted Labour seats.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,085

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    Neoliberals showing their soft underbelly to the left continued in France - have I died and gone to heaven? First Starmer underperforms, loses seats to Greens and Independents and is unable to "close the door" on the revival of the left under Corbynism, now the Left Alliance beats RN and La Republique. Left wing wins keep coming - next up will be Biden dropping out and a surprise entry from Bernie sweeping up whatever process they put in place... (that last one is a joke; or is it?)

    Starmer who won a huge landslide? That Starmer? Looking forward to watching Turkey play Switzerland on wednesday night on that logic.
    Starmer won more seats under FPTP - and got fewer votes and a lower vote share than Corbyn in '17 and '19.

    Politics isn't like a football game - it should be an expression of the public's desires, not an expression of skills of a team / individual. If you look at the results and the vote distribution you see a clear story - people wanted to kick the Tories out and, in areas where there was no risk of the Tories winning, Labour underperformed. This bodes well for the left.
    Delusion. You are interpreting the results that way you want them. An unpopular Tory government, worn out by 14 years of power plus covid, plus Ukraine, was thrown out by the people. Doesn't mean we are heading for a left wing utopia.
    Just one more push...
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,707
    edited July 8
    HYUFD said:

    In terms of Holyrood I would make three arguments.

    Firstly, I think there was a dynamic of voting for Labour in order to be part of replacing the Tory government in London with a Labour one. That dynamic won't exist in the Holyrood elections, and so it reduces somewhat the impetus to vote Labour.

    Secondly, however, the drop in the SNP vote does look a lot like the drop in the Tory vote. The SNP have been in government at Holyrood for a long time. They are mired in scandal and have begun to change leaders a bit too often to inspire confidence. They are incumbents at a time of dissatisfaction. Like with the Tories and the split of the vote with Reform, they face the potential of their vote splitting with the Greens. This could particularly hurt them with the AMS in use in Scotland, if they lose the FPTP seats to Labour, and shed votes to the Greens for the top-up seats.

    Thirdly is the matter of timing. A 2025 Holyrood election might have suited Labour better than 2026. There is potential for the SNP to recover their position somewhat by feeding off accumulating disappointment with Starmer's government in London.

    A minority Labour government in Scotland is the most likely outcome in 2026
    Worth considering a Labour-LD coalition majority government. That's exactly what the fiddled d'Hondt system was designed to do, ensure a permanent Lab-LD rule and shut out the SNP, Tories and SSP. Though there are obvious risks for the LDs, as past experience shows twice over.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,645
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Unless I’m reading the results wrong, LPF were 3m votes behind RN but because of the way that the tactical voting worked came first on seats.

    I’m not sure that bodes well. It’s a bullet dodged but the RN scored by far the highest number of votes (over 10% more on my understanding?). That would be a bit like Labour falling short of a majority on Thursday 10 points ahead of the Tories. It’s the electoral system and alliances that have caused the result.

    It raises an important point but I think it's democracy working, not the other way round. The left and centre alliances intended to impose a pseudo PR system on top of a two phase FPTP system. It turned out extremely successful.

    The important point is RN is extremely transfer unfriendly. Almost everyone will choose anyone other than RN if their preferred candidate is not available. Le Pen has more votes than anyone else but she can't work a coalition. She can only win if she is the biggest party and gets a majority under FPTP.

    The message from this election is the two thirds of the French population who don't support Le Pen have given all the other parties a mandate to sort something out between them. Whether they do or not remains to be seen.
    In a way, it’s similar to Gerry Adams’ defeat in 1992, on a larger scale. Most of us cheered, but we overlooked that his vote increased.
    And SF can't get a majority in NI or the Republic even now.

    RN clearly are too toxic to get anywhere near a majority in France or to win the Presidential election without centre right support, at present LR voters clearly still prefer Macron's party in runoffs to RN. LR voters will only hold their nose and vote for RN to keep out Melenchon and the far left
    The interesting scenario is what happens if the centrist gets knocked into 3rd place, in 2027.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,489
    IanB2 said:

    a

    Interesting to see the stats behind the devastating defeat for Le Pen.

    2007 - 0 Seats.
    2012 - 2 Seats.
    2017 - 8 Seats (- We in the UK are Here.
    2022 - 89 Seats.
    2024 - 142 Seats.

    Le Pens Lot will sit happily on the opposition benches munching popcorn as the rest try and form a coalition of chaos offering all sorts of free owls and pensions at 60 that the country dosen't have the money to fund.

    I don't think this bodes well for France.

    At least we have a stable goveenment for the next four and a bit years.

    You are missing out some previous decades of the RN (as the Front National) staggering from turgid scandal to scandal and the boot boys putting off people with Roman Salutes.

    The take off had its origin in Le Pen (dad) shoving the more obvious types in a cupboard and draping suits over the rest.

    See the results in 1986….
    I think Leon is right that they will not get a majority if they are run by a Le Pen, short of an economic calamity.

    So far the French stock and bond markets have not taken fright at the result.

    Presumably Macron will be trying to prise apart the left wing coalition and govern with the saner parts of it.
    Lol @ "if Leon is right". Once again, he's been totally wrong, and working out that Le Pen isn't very popular after he's seen the election result is hardly an achievement.
    He was able to find the only publisher with a 17 year old son who was a huge fan of Nigel Farage to have lunch with at Grouchos. So anything is possible!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    edited July 8
    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Unless I’m reading the results wrong, LPF were 3m votes behind RN but because of the way that the tactical voting worked came first on seats.

    I’m not sure that bodes well. It’s a bullet dodged but the RN scored by far the highest number of votes (over 10% more on my understanding?). That would be a bit like Labour falling short of a majority on Thursday 10 points ahead of the Tories. It’s the electoral system and alliances that have caused the result.

    It raises an important point but I think it's democracy working, not the other way round. The left and centre alliances intended to impose a pseudo PR system on top of a two phase FPTP system. It turned out extremely successful.

    The important point is RN is extremely transfer unfriendly. Almost everyone will choose anyone other than RN if their preferred candidate is not available. Le Pen has more votes than anyone else but she can't work a coalition. She can only win if she is the biggest party and gets a majority under FPTP.

    The message from this election is the two thirds of the French population who don't support Le Pen have given all the other parties a mandate to sort something out between them. Whether they do or not remains to be seen.
    In a way, it’s similar to Gerry Adams’ defeat in 1992, on a larger scale. Most of us cheered, but we overlooked that his vote increased.

    The other parties can only agree upon opposing RN, nothing else. And, the Republicans are on the point of disappearing as a force.
    The Republicains still got over 50 seats and their centre right voters are now the key swing voters both Macron and RN need in 2027 to win in the runoffs
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    FF43 said:

    Unless I’m reading the results wrong, LPF were 3m votes behind RN but because of the way that the tactical voting worked came first on seats.

    I’m not sure that bodes well. It’s a bullet dodged but the RN scored by far the highest number of votes (over 10% more on my understanding?). That would be a bit like Labour falling short of a majority on Thursday 10 points ahead of the Tories. It’s the electoral system and alliances that have caused the result.

    It raises an important point but I think it's democracy working, not the other way round. The left and centre alliances intended to impose a pseudo PR system on top of a two phase FPTP system. It turned out extremely successful.

    The important point is RN is extremely transfer unfriendly. Almost everyone will choose anyone other than RN if their preferred candidate is not available. Le Pen has more votes than anyone else but she can't work a coalition. She can only win if she is the biggest party and gets a majority under FPTP.

    The message from this election is the two thirds of the French population who don't support Le Pen have given all the other parties a mandate to sort something out between them. Whether they do or not remains to be seen.
    In a way, it’s similar to Gerry Adams’ defeat in 1992, on a larger scale. Most of us cheered, but we overlooked that his vote increased.
    And SF can't get a majority in NI or the Republic even now.

    RN clearly are too toxic to get anywhere near a majority in France or to win the Presidential election without centre right support, at present LR voters clearly still prefer Macron's party in runoffs to RN. LR voters will only hold their nose and vote for RN to keep out Melenchon and the far left
    The interesting scenario is what happens if the centrist gets knocked into 3rd place, in 2027.
    That is probably Le Pen's best and only chance to win, ie far right v far left, her v Melenchon in a straight choice
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,454

    If we ever had PR it would need to be open list, ideally by county or groups of counties, and not STV, which is the work of Satan.

    I'd prefer the MPs to be chosen by the electorate rather than the parties' hierarchies in presumably smoke free rooms.
    Newsflash - MPs ARE chosen by the party hierarchies. They select the candidates. Hence trying to foist a Londoner on SW Wilts (Labour - failed).
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    MattWMattW Posts: 20,483
    Sean_F said:

    MattW said:

    Rachel Reeves' speech will be interesting later.

    I'm quite taken by her term "Grey Belt" for mess ^ scrub in the Green Belt.

    Putting housing targets back on local authorities is a good move.

    I wonder if she has a "little list" of Rishi's Hail Mary Passes to consider reversing?

    It’s the right thing to do, but probably not a popular thing to do.
    I think we will learn much about their judgement of how quickly benefit will be seen/felt vs assessment of short term political hit vs assessment of long term political hit.

    What I think they would like is a slow-burn stealth money raiser like Gordon Brown's hit on pensions early on which was hardly noticed.
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