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When assumptions go wrong – politicalbetting.com

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  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    .

    Rishi's Tory seppuku. Good analogy.

    I honestly don't know how he and Theresa May built political skills with media, interview and debating skills that inept.

    Nor do I understand what process/training CCHQ put candidates through. Whatever it is it clearly isn't good enough. And it should be refreshed regularly for elected MPs as part of their CPD.
    Seppuku implies honour and intent. I’d say he’s much closer to Sideshow Bob repeatedly stepping on rakes.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,250
    Andy_JS said:

    "Farage: Reform ‘stitched up’ by candidate vetting firm

    Party leader admits there has been trouble with ‘one or two’ would-be MPs but blames company performing background checks"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/18/farage-reform-stitched-up-by-candidate-vetting-firm/

    Always someone elses fault.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,242
    algarkirk said:

    Not a huge fan of Biggar, but if you are to describe as 'Not a senior academic' (see the link) someone who has held professorships at Leeds, TCD and Oxford you have to provide at least a scintilla of backing.
    Possible the tweeter has a problem with someone noisily shoving their historical oar in for the umpteenth time being described as a senior academic in that context. It's a bit like Hugh 'Scotland doesn't need a lockdown' Pennington, a bacteriologist, being the go to boffin for the Scottish press during a pandemic.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,369

    Fair point. What's your prognosis for early July? I'm cycling in Shropshire so keen to know regardless of the election!
    Long term Northern Hemisphere pattern seems to be setting things up for Atlantic ridging. Of course Atlantic ridging can be in the wrong place, but on the balance of probabilities it's looking pretty encouraging.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    That's a stretch Nick - got to admire the lateral thinking there.
    Ha! I was thinking that. The good doctor Palmer should be a politician with triangulation like that @NickPalmer
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Always someone elses fault.
    Farage in a nutshell really, and hopefully a warning to those who want him to be loto or something.
  • Anyone know when the next YouGov is out?

    It seems like YouGov gains the most traction and socials and moves the betting markets the most,

    Even though, with their track record, it should probably be Survation that gets most of our attention in terms of individual pollsters…
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,369
    HYUFD said:

    Reeves and Streeting are Blairites yes, Starmer and Rayner aren't, they are soft left Brownites. Rayner with a tinge of Corbynite too
    Reeves and Streeting are both from the same vintage - younger end of Gen X, came of age during Blair's ascendency, active in student politics when it wasn't a hotbed of Labour left. I think their world view reflects the conditions of their youth. Starmer would have come of age in the early 80s. Different world.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,748
    Andy_JS said:

    "Farage: Reform ‘stitched up’ by candidate vetting firm

    Party leader admits there has been trouble with ‘one or two’ would-be MPs but blames company performing background checks"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/18/farage-reform-stitched-up-by-candidate-vetting-firm/


    I think Nige is going for a Trumpite 'the role of PM was stolen from me' narrative, with everyone being blamed other than him. And there will be elements of the British Right - perhaps large elements - happy to feed the conspiracy.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    algarkirk said:

    Not a huge fan of Biggar, but if you are to describe as 'Not a senior academic' (see the link) someone who has held professorships at Leeds, TCD and Oxford you have to provide at least a scintilla of backing.
    Professorships in theology LOL. "Intellectual tennis without a net" (Daniel Dennett)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,040
    edited June 2024
    Andy_JS said:

    "Farage: Reform ‘stitched up’ by candidate vetting firm

    Party leader admits there has been trouble with ‘one or two’ would-be MPs but blames company performing background checks"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/18/farage-reform-stitched-up-by-candidate-vetting-firm/

    One of the petty reasons I have for disliking Farage is that, like Trump, everything is part of a conspiracy against him. It's really tiresome.

    Reform have not been "stitched up" by the vetting firm they used. They (the vetting firm) have simply not been good enough for one or more of many possible reasons: poor judging criteria, inefficient vetting methods, general incompetence, not charging enough to do a thorough job, taking too much profit from their fee to do a thorough job, inevitability of falling short of perfection given the time available to do the job, impossibility of finding 632 candidates for Reform that didn't have something unsavoury in their past, etc.

    The victim mentality really doesn't elicit any sympathy from me.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,983

    Possible the tweeter has a problem with someone noisily shoving their historical oar in for the umpteenth time being described as a senior academic in that context. It's a bit like Hugh 'Scotland doesn't need a lockdown' Pennington, a bacteriologist, being the go to boffin for the Scottish press during a pandemic.
    Maybe. Though TBF theologians and ethicists like Biggar occasionally find folks from other disciplines treading on their lawn, sometimes wearing hob nailed boots.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Anyone know when the next YouGov is out?

    It seems like YouGov gains the most traction and socials and moves the betting markets the most,

    Even though, with their track record, it should probably be Survation that gets most of our attention in terms of individual pollsters…

    Tonight I'd imagine, sky's yougov comes out Tues, the Times Thurs or Fri
    Unless they are doing MRP this week......
  • alednamalednam Posts: 186
    Has anyone considered what proportion of undecideds are unlikely to cast a vote? It seems to me perfectly possible that someone who tells a pollster they are undecided may well not be intending to cast a vote.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,367

    I think you'll find they are all going to be Starmerites after 4th July.
    Oh no, once Labour gets a majority that is when the internal divisions really begin
  • malcolmg said:

    These absolute moronic halfwits that bring up these mentally deranged ideas on reparations for things that happened in the distant past should be put in public stocks and pelted with rotten vegetables for a very long time and then tarred and teathered and run out of town.
    Maybe they should be forced to work on the land ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,140
    Latest Scotland Westminster voting intention (3-7 June)

    Lab: 34% (-5 from 13-17 May)
    SNP: 30% (+1)
    Con: 13% (+1)
    Lib Dem: 8% (=)
    Reform: 7% (+3)
    Green: 6% (-1


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1803008088514953401
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,932

    Usual disclaimer: no one apart from the local CLP chair thinks that Didcot & Wantage is a three-way marginal.

    Though I grant you have more experience of three-ways than most of us.
    Hardly, NPxMP. If Didcot were to elect a Labour MP, he would pass totally unnoticed in the throng of Labour MPs. Nobody would need to take any notice of him. A bit like the Conservative MP in recent years.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    PfP raises an issue which may have a surprising amount of cut-through. The oldies around here (i.e. most of the population) are not so much likely to forget their id as to be affronted by the very suggestion that the custom of a lifetime has been changed unhelpfully and unnecessarily. This has in some cases sparked an 'eff 'em' attitude likely to results in a change in the voting habit of a lifetime.

    I think PfP is right. Turnout looks like a sell, and stay-at-homes and protest voters might be up a tad.

    There are multiple factors pointing to turnout falling substantially compared to 2019:

    1997 was the last election when there was serious widespread dillusionment amongst Conservative voters. Measuring against 1987 (not 1992, because in 1987 like 1997 the result was not in real doubt), turnout fell by 3.9% to 71.4%.

    At least in 1997 there was fairly widespread enthusiasm about Labour taking over, and that probably kept turnout up to a degree, countering the effect of Conservative disillusionment. The mood towards Starmer's Labour now seems closer to that of 2001, when the gloss had come off New Labour. In that election, turnout fell by a massive 12.0% to a record postwar low of 59.4%.

    So going from an election (1987) where supporters of the Conservatives were positive about their party and Thatcher also caused a strong reaction on the left, to one where Conservatives were disillusioned and Labour supporters weren't particularly enthused any more to compensate (2001), turnout fell by 15.9% in 14 years. If you disagree with me and think that 1992 is a better benchmark, then the fall was 18.3% in the 9 years to 2001.

    In 2019, there were once again I think a lot of factors on both sides enthusing the electorate to go out and vote in what was once again a Brexit election following a high turnout referendum 3 years earlier. Johnson enthused Conservatives to "get Brexit done", Remainers tried hard to stop that, and we need to remember too that Corbyn's brand of Marmite drew strong reactions in both directions.

    Exceptionally, we seem to have all the ingredients in place to go from a moderately high turnout election (by the standards of the 21st century) to a low turnout one in the space of just one electoral cycle.

    Add to that the change in voter ID requirements. It's certain to have a much greater impact than on the misinformed 0.25% who turn up in the local elections only to find they could not vote. The problem is more those who knew the score and did not turn up to vote in the first place. The Electoral Commission cite evidence that 4% of non-voters cite the ID requirements as a reason for not voting. 4% of non-voters in the local elections amounts to about 2.5% of all voters, and very few seem to have done anything to sort out the necessary ID in the month or so since.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited June 2024

    It certainly is - at that level FPTP is even more of a lottery, for example:
    LibDem Vote 2010 was 22% and they won 57 seats
    LibDem Vote 2015 was 23% and they won 8 seats
    The silly thing about FPTP is that rewards parties with very locally concentrated support (like the SNP) and punishes parties with wide ranging but thinly spread support (Lib Dems, Reform, Greens etc.). You'd think a system for electing a national government would want to incentivise the exact opposite.
  • novanova Posts: 703
    HYUFD said:

    May also got 42% of the vote in 2017 and 317 seats, at the time the highest Tory voteshare since 1987 and the second highest number of Tory seats since 1992
    The only problem with crediting May for those figures, is that you then have to credit Corbyn too - he'd have beaten every Tory voteshare since 1992.

    That election was an anomaly, with the LDs still in the coalition doghouse, and a non-Farage UKIP dropping from 12.78 to under 2%, leading to the largest two party share in nearly fifty years.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,624
    edited June 2024

    IR emerges from the slave trade because you have material to process and transport, and profits to invest.
    Well, as @rcs1000 often points out, big events have multiple causes. You can point to the profits from slavery, as one factor in industrialisation. As you can, the profits from agriculture, and the Baltic and Mediterranean trades. There was more to the British economy than slavery, in 1790. Add in a stable banking and legal system, and people thinking and inventing in new ways, in the late eighteenth/early nineteenth centuries, and the the stimulus to manufacturing from the Napoleonic wars, and you have a very fortunate combination of circumstances.

    The Industrial Revolution floated almost all boats. Even poor countries are in the main, very much richer than they were 200 years ago. Without the Industrial Revolution, conquest of lands, plunder, and enslavement, would be very much norms today, as they were back in the day.

  • TazTaz Posts: 15,385
    malcolmg said:

    These absolute moronic halfwits that bring up these mentally deranged ideas on reparations for things that happened in the distant past should be put in public stocks and pelted with rotten vegetables for a very long time and then tarred and teathered and run out of town.
    Harsh but fair, Malc.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,054

    Latest Scotland Westminster voting intention (3-7 June)

    Lab: 34% (-5 from 13-17 May)
    SNP: 30% (+1)
    Con: 13% (+1)
    Lib Dem: 8% (=)
    Reform: 7% (+3)
    Green: 6% (-1


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1803008088514953401

    Would love to see the Sankey diagram of that one. Lots of offsets, I would guess, plus some undecideds coming out for Reform..
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,624

    Professorships in theology LOL. "Intellectual tennis without a net" (Daniel Dennett)
    I've never been impressed by the argument that people need to stay in their lane.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    malcolmg said:

    These absolute moronic halfwits that bring up these mentally deranged ideas on reparations for things that happened in the distant past should be put in public stocks and pelted with rotten vegetables for a very long time and then tarred and teathered and run out of town.
    Would you say the same about Jewish people having art or other valuables returned to them from the German or Austrian states, or private individuals, that were lost due to the Holocaust? It's the same principle, just on a longer scale. There are clearly individuals and entire countries that have the wealth they have now due to a foundation that was built (even if only partly) on the unpaid labour of slaves. The descendants of those slaves do not have the benefit of that wealth; the descendants of those individuals and the citizens of those countries do. You can say that it is too long ago to matter now - and people like to hand wave the Roman Empire or the Vikings doing the same in history - but the thing is that slavery (and colonialization) is clearly still materially impacting those descended from those it affected even now. Hell, the island of Ireland only recently got over the population loss (via death and migration) of the Great Hunger!
  • ScarpiaScarpia Posts: 70


    A practical consideration, if you accept the overall pollling that suggests that Labour will win, is whether you want a Government or Opposition MP. A case for voting Labour in seats like Didcot and Wantage where there appears to be a 3-way marginal is that it's more useful to have some Labour MPs in Government representing uncharactaristic constituencies than one extra Tory or LibDem in opposition.

    .. and take your place in the queue of 400 plus Labour back bench supplicants for the Minister's ear.

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,054
    edited June 2024
    Apparently the crossover age Labour > Conservative is now over 70. Perhaps a positive side effect of all this is Boomers and Millennials finally agreeing on something.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    HYUFD said:

    Far right like Le Pen support increased minimum wages and state pensions
    For the Volk. And will define some people non-volkish, who will likely not have those protections. They will become the needed labour underclass. And the people defined as Volk grows ever smaller, and the non-volkish ever greater - as dissent is not allowed and dissent is non-volkish.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,618

    Always someone elses fault.
    This is a party literally owned by Farage, who installed himself as leader.
    Clearly not a member of 'the buck stops here' school of leadership.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,699
    Scarpia said:

    .. and take your place in the queue of 400 plus Labour back bench supplicants for the Minister's ear.

    That really should be the Lib Dems calling card at the moment vote Labour and your voice will be 1 of 400+ others trying to get attention. As a lib dem we will be able to highlight your issues
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,140
    Eabhal said:

    Would love to see the Sankey diagram of that one. Lots of offsets, I would guess, plus some undecideds coming out for Reform..
    How do 2019 SNP voters say they will vote in 2024?

    SNP: 62%
    Lab: 24%
    Green: 7%
    Lib Dem: 2%
    Reform: 2%
    Con: 1%


    How do 2019 Conservative voters in Scotland say they will vote in 2024?

    Con: 49%
    Lab: 19%
    Reform: 18%
    Lib Dem: 10%
    SNP: 3%
    Green: 0%

    How do 2019 Labour voters in Scotland say they will vote in 2024?

    Lab: 79%
    SNP: 8%
    Reform: 5%
    Lib Dem: 4%
    Green: 3%
    Con: 1%
  • novanova Posts: 703

    One of the petty reasons I have for disliking Farage is that, like Trump, everything is part of a conspiracy against him. It's really tiresome.

    Reform have not been "stitched up" by the vetting firm they used. They (the vetting firm) have simply not been good enough for one or more of many possible reasons: poor judging criteria, inefficient vetting methods, general incompetence, not charging enough to do a thorough job, taking too much profit from their fee to do a thorough job, inevitability of falling short of perfection given the time available to do the job, impossibility of finding 632 candidates for Reform that didn't have something unsavoury in their past, etc.

    The victim mentality really doesn't elicit any sympathy from me.
    Is it not more deliberate? That it appeals to people who think the world is against them, and plays into his anti-establishment grift?

    Prior to the stuff about Russell Brand coming out, he embraced a lot of the conspiracy theories, and the "if you speak the truth they will come for you" audience. It might have been a genuine conversion, but 'coincidentally' it also gave him an audience who were more likely to be sceptical about the claims against him, and perhaps even helped his brand (no pun intended).
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,107


    I think Nige is going for a Trumpite 'the role of PM was stolen from me' narrative, with everyone being blamed other than him. And there will be elements of the British Right - perhaps large elements - happy to feed the conspiracy.
    Unfortunately, some of those elements edit newspapers.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,954

    One of the petty reasons I have for disliking Farage is that, like Trump, everything is part of a conspiracy against him. It's really tiresome.

    Reform have not been "stitched up" by the vetting firm they used. They (the vetting firm) have simply not been good enough for one or more of many possible reasons: poor judging criteria, inefficient vetting methods, general incompetence, not charging enough to do a thorough job, taking too much profit from their fee to do a thorough job, inevitability of falling short of perfection given the time available to do the job, impossibility of finding 632 candidates for Reform that didn't have something unsavoury in their past, etc.

    The victim mentality really doesn't elicit any sympathy from me.
    Nothing more whiny than the populist right.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,624
    148grss said:

    Would you say the same about Jewish people having art or other valuables returned to them from the German or Austrian states, or private individuals, that were lost due to the Holocaust? It's the same principle, just on a longer scale. There are clearly individuals and entire countries that have the wealth they have now due to a foundation that was built (even if only partly) on the unpaid labour of slaves. The descendants of those slaves do not have the benefit of that wealth; the descendants of those individuals and the citizens of those countries do. You can say that it is too long ago to matter now - and people like to hand wave the Roman Empire or the Vikings doing the same in history - but the thing is that slavery (and colonialization) is clearly still materially impacting those descended from those it affected even now. Hell, the island of Ireland only recently got over the population loss (via death and migration) of the Great Hunger!
    Germany lost totally. That's why they paid reparations, (something that many Jews violently opposed at the time), and lost lands in the East. If people want reparations for wrongs long past, they have to obtain them by force of arms.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,242
    Nigelb said:

    This is a party literally owned by Farage, who installed himself as leader.
    Clearly not a member of 'the buck stops here' school of leadership.
    Well, quite a few of the bucks seem to stop with Farage.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    I admit I'm no historian, but this extract from the Wikipedia* page on the Economic History of the UK seems to indicate that textile manufacturing was one of the main driving forces of the industrial revolution which, in turn, drove the demand for coal:

    "The steam engine was invented and became a power supply that soon surpassed waterfalls and horsepower. The first practicable steam engine was invented by Thomas Newcomen, and was used for pumping water out of mines. A much more powerful steam engine was invented by James Watt; it had a reciprocating engine capable of powering machinery. The first steam-driven textile mills began to appear in the last quarter of the 18th century, and this transformed the industrial revolution into an urban phenomenon, greatly contributing to the appearance and rapid growth of industrial towns.

    The progress of the textile trade soon outstripped the original supplies of raw materials. By the turn of the 19th century, imported American cotton had replaced wool in the North West of England, though wool remained the chief textile in Yorkshire. Textiles have been identified as the catalyst in technological change in this period. The application of steam power stimulated the demand for coal; the demand for machinery and rails stimulated the iron industry; and the demand for transportation to move raw material in and finished products out stimulated the growth of the canal system, and (after 1830) the railway system.

    Such an unprecedented degree of economic growth was not sustained by domestic demand alone. The application of technology and the factory system created such levels of mass production and cost efficiency that enabled British manufacturers to export inexpensive cloth and other items worldwide."


    * Yes, I know.
    The progress of the textile trade soon outstripped the original supplies of raw materials. By the turn of the 19th century, imported American cotton had replaced wool in the North West of England, though wool remained the chief textile in Yorkshire.

    The textile boom was due to the low prices and availability of imported American cotton. The availability and low cost of being due to chattel slavery in the American South.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    Sean_F said:

    I've never been impressed by the argument that people need to stay in their lane.
    Depends on the nature of their own lane. Churchill moonlighting as historian yes, theology profs not so much
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Eabhal said:

    Apparently the crossover age Labour > Conservative is now over 70. Perhaps a positive side effect of all this is Boomers and Millennials finally agreeing on something.

    I think that's on the Deltapoll data from last night, generally speaking it's around or either side of 65 for most of the polling from memory
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,021
    Mr. F, I am unconvinced we shall see reparations enthusiasts invading Africa to extort reparations from the descendants of African slave traders.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,494

    Anyone know when the next YouGov is out?

    It seems like YouGov gains the most traction and socials and moves the betting markets the most,

    Even though, with their track record, it should probably be Survation that gets most of our attention in terms of individual pollsters…

    It's by no means obvious what does and doesn't gain traction.

    Betfair does not necessarily move in sync with the spreads on Sporting Index. Some minor opportunities occasionally arise from this. Likewise opportunities arise when either, or both, fail to react to poll results. I'm not sure if the punters rate some pollsters higher than others, and if so,why.

    Personally I take notice of them all, but maybe put a little more confidence in the established pollsters. These would certainly include Survation.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,614
    148grss said:

    Would you say the same about Jewish people having art or other valuables returned to them from the German or Austrian states, or private individuals, that were lost due to the Holocaust? It's the same principle, just on a longer scale. There are clearly individuals and entire countries that have the wealth they have now due to a foundation that was built (even if only partly) on the unpaid labour of slaves. The descendants of those slaves do not have the benefit of that wealth; the descendants of those individuals and the citizens of those countries do. You can say that it is too long ago to matter now - and people like to hand wave the Roman Empire or the Vikings doing the same in history - but the thing is that slavery (and colonialization) is clearly still materially impacting those descended from those it affected even now. Hell, the island of Ireland only recently got over the population loss (via death and migration) of the Great Hunger!
    Should descendents of people who migrated to Britain because of the famine be exempt from paying reparations?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,009

    A practical consideration, if you accept the overall pollling that suggests that Labour will win, is whether you want a Government or Opposition MP. A case for voting Labour in seats like Didcot and Wantage where there appears to be a 3-way marginal is that it's more useful to have some Labour MPs in Government representing uncharactaristic constituencies than one extra Tory or LibDem in opposition.
    What benefits for an individual constituents is there for having a Govt MP. On the contrary if they get appointed to a Govt post they become less useful as they can't serve on an APPC or other committees and have a split focus on their commitments and could have a conflict of interest. They become less useful to represent your issues (I speak with someone with experience in this matter as the key MP in the campaign I am involved in was appointed a minister and had to resign as chair of the APPC).
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405
    malcolmg said:

    These absolute moronic halfwits that bring up these mentally deranged ideas on reparations for things that happened in the distant past should be put in public stocks and pelted with rotten vegetables for a very long time and then tarred and teathered and run out of town.
    Yes, Malcolm. Can you think of a particular type of person that sort of thing used to happen to in the Deep South?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Sean_F said:

    Germany lost totally. That's why they paid reparations, (something that many Jews violently opposed at the time), and lost lands in the East. If people want reparations for wrongs long past, they have to obtain them by force of arms.
    So the only moral precept is might is right? I mean, if you insist - Global Revolution Now, Comrade!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,618
    Sean_F said:

    Well, as @rcs1000 often points out, big events have multiple causes. You can point to the profits from slavery, as one factor in industrialisation. As you can, the profits from agriculture, and the Baltic and Mediterranean trades. There was more to the British economy than slavery, in 1790..

    Of course.
    But as I noted upthread, the profits from the sugar trade were pretty well banked and done by then.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,140
    edited June 2024
    My antecedents in Pakistan and India were the victims of real evil from the British Empire and I will happily accept £10 million compensation on their behalf as I want to expand my property portfolio to have some holiday homes.

    Edit - I also want Chevening as well.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,624
    148grss said:

    So the only moral precept is might is right? I mean, if you insist - Global Revolution Now, Comrade!
    International affairs operate mainly on the principle that the strong do as they will, the weak as they must. Hegemonic powers like the USA accept restraints on their own behaviour, only insofar as adhering to the rules suits them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,614
    148grss said:

    So the only moral precept is might is right? I mean, if you insist - Global Revolution Now, Comrade!
    You may be deluding yourself about which side you will be deemed to be on in such a revolution.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,021
    Mr. grss, there's still a high correlation between descent from the Normans accompanying the Conqueror and being of high status in society (MPs, wealthy, etc). Should I, as a Yorkshireman, be entitled to reparations for the Harrowing of the North?

    I don't want reparations, of course. Only a fool would advocate that people who have done nothing wrong should be compelled give money to people who have suffered no wrong at their hands.

    I'm just curious if you think an ongoing impact is the clinching argument. Yorkshire's population was dramatically hit, I think Marc Morris asserted 75% total dead (mostly starved).
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    Should descendents of people who migrated to Britain because of the famine be exempt from paying reparations?
    Yes. I mean, most workers would be, when looking at private individuals. When it comes to the wealth owned in common, that of the state, that's a bit more difficult. I think it is fair to accept that even our working class have benefitted from the state foundations built by slavery, at the expense of other countries and individuals. In that instance I think long term international aid, with no strings attached, and potentially individual reparation repayments (where individual descendants can be identified) would fit the bill. Personally if I was overlord of the UK that would be done via progressive means (taking wealth from the already wealthy and distributing it internationally as well as nationally), but, thankfully, I am not.
  • TweedledeeTweedledee Posts: 1,405

    Mr. F, I am unconvinced we shall see reparations enthusiasts invading Africa to extort reparations from the descendants of African slave traders.

    For heavens sake. In a modern slavery case would you think it was valid mitigation to say ok I did buy this person, but I bought them from someone the same colour as them? If no, what makes the claim valid for the 18th century? Do you think they were moral primitives not to be held to the same standard as us?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,140

    Mr. grss, there's still a high correlation between descent from the Normans accompanying the Conqueror and being of high status in society (MPs, wealthy, etc). Should I, as a Yorkshireman, be entitled to reparations for the Harrowing of the North?

    I don't want reparations, of course. Only a fool would advocate that people who have done nothing wrong should be compelled give money to people who have suffered no wrong at their hands.

    I'm just curious if you think an ongoing impact is the clinching argument. Yorkshire's population was dramatically hit, I think Marc Morris asserted 75% total dead (mostly starved).

    I think Norman reparations would bankrupt France so we really should be in favour of reparations.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    Mr. grss, there's still a high correlation between descent from the Normans accompanying the Conqueror and being of high status in society (MPs, wealthy, etc). Should I, as a Yorkshireman, be entitled to reparations for the Harrowing of the North?

    I don't want reparations, of course. Only a fool would advocate that people who have done nothing wrong should be compelled give money to people who have suffered no wrong at their hands.

    I'm just curious if you think an ongoing impact is the clinching argument. Yorkshire's population was dramatically hit, I think Marc Morris asserted 75% total dead (mostly starved).

    I do think that the land owners who are descendants of Norman invaders should not have their land and it should be owned in common by the people - yes. To be fair I think that of most aristocratic land ownership, including the monarchy. The formation of countries is, itself, an act of colonisation - just viewed differently. When countries expand to include contiguous territory people don't tend to think of it as colonisation - but it is.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    Should descendents of people who migrated to Britain because of the famine be exempt from paying reparations?
    Since 75% of the English population were at one point serfs in indentured servitude, go far back enough, and we're all entitled to some compensation. Come to think of it, the Romans don't get out of reparations to us Brits just because they've cleverly rebranded themselves as "Italian".
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,614
    edited June 2024
    148grss said:

    Yes. I mean, most workers would be, when looking at private individuals. When it comes to the wealth owned in common, that of the state, that's a bit more difficult. I think it is fair to accept that even our working class have benefitted from the state foundations built by slavery, at the expense of other countries and individuals. In that instance I think long term international aid, with no strings attached, and potentially individual reparation repayments (where individual descendants can be identified) would fit the bill. Personally if I was overlord of the UK that would be done via progressive means (taking wealth from the already wealthy and distributing it internationally as well as nationally), but, thankfully, I am not.
    Why distribute any of it nationally? You would perpetuate the injustice by giving people even more who, by your own argument, are benefitting from slavery even today.

    Attitudes like yours cannot be part of the global revolution I'm afraid.
  • Mr. grss, there's still a high correlation between descent from the Normans accompanying the Conqueror and being of high status in society (MPs, wealthy, etc). Should I, as a Yorkshireman, be entitled to reparations for the Harrowing of the North?

    I don't want reparations, of course. Only a fool would advocate that people who have done nothing wrong should be compelled give money to people who have suffered no wrong at their hands.

    I'm just curious if you think an ongoing impact is the clinching argument. Yorkshire's population was dramatically hit, I think Marc Morris asserted 75% total dead (mostly starved).

    I would imagine that, 1000 years later, almost all of those of British descent have Norman ancestors, as well as Anglo-Saxon and Viking ancestors. And probably smatterings of quite a few others too.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,250
    edited June 2024
    kjh said:

    What benefits for an individual constituents is there for having a Govt MP. On the contrary if they get appointed to a Govt post they become less useful as they can't serve on an APPC or other committees and have a split focus on their commitments and could have a conflict of interest. They become less useful to represent your issues (I speak with someone with experience in this matter as the key MP in the campaign I am involved in was appointed a minister and had to resign as chair of the APPC).
    Martin Lewis at moneysavingexpert has two reasons for not being a politician. One his mental health, the other is he currently has more influence on policy (in his sphere of interest and expertise) than any politician bar the PM and Chancellor.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,026
    edited June 2024

    It certainly is - at that level FPTP is even more of a lottery, for example:
    LibDem Vote 2010 was 22% and they won 57 seats
    LibDem Vote 2015 was 23% and they won 8 seats
    Your LD vote share figure for 2015 is spectacularly incorrect.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,624
    edited June 2024
    Nigelb said:

    Of course.
    But as I noted upthread, the profits from the sugar trade were pretty well banked and done by then.
    Slave owners tend to be lazy, like people who have access to vast natural resources The profits of slavery will go into a new wing for one's country house, art, race horses, more than into devising more efficient ways of working. The South of the USA for example, had fallen a very long way behind the North, by 1860. Bizarrely, almost all slave owners died deeply in debt (like Jefferson), because of their conspicuous, and ostentatious, consumption.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    You may be deluding yourself about which side you will be deemed to be on in such a revolution.
    People shall know me by my actions. I know that I am, globally, extremely privileged. And I can't exact a one man revolution. But I'll be fighting against the rich and powerful who are hoarding their wealth.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    I think that's on the Deltapoll data from last night, generally speaking it's around or either side of 65 for most of the polling from memory
    Subsample klaxon required.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,046

    A practical consideration, if you accept the overall pollling that suggests that Labour will win, is whether you want a Government or Opposition MP. A case for voting Labour in seats like Didcot and Wantage where there appears to be a 3-way marginal is that it's more useful to have some Labour MPs in Government representing uncharactaristic constituencies than one extra Tory or LibDem in opposition.
    Except when SKS refuses to meet them. Like Rosie Duffield for Canterbury.

    Nice try, though.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Subsample klaxon required.
    It is? I guess....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,624
    148grss said:

    People shall know me by my actions. I know that I am, globally, extremely privileged. And I can't exact a one man revolution. But I'll be fighting against the rich and powerful who are hoarding their wealth.
    But, like Saturn, the Revolution devours its own children.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,780
    edited June 2024

    Mr. grss, there's still a high correlation between descent from the Normans accompanying the Conqueror and being of high status in society (MPs, wealthy, etc). Should I, as a Yorkshireman, be entitled to reparations for the Harrowing of the North?

    Given that there have been probably 30 or 40 generations since the Norman Conquest, and 2 to the power of 30 is about a billion, nearly everyone in the UK except relatively recent immigrants will have many lines of descent from all the Norman companions of the Conqueror who left descendants.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,021
    Mr. Dee, the slave trade was alive and kicking in Africa long before the colonial powers arrived. Yet, for some mystical reason, the traders' descendants never get mentioned when scrounging for reparations. Nor does the fact it was colonial powers, led by Britain, that ended the slave trade.

    And it's hilarious you cite the race of the individuals, when you, seemingly (let me know if I'm mistaken), buy into the idea that white descendants are riddled with inherited guilt whereas black descendants of slave traders are not only unworthy of mention but anyone who does mention them (me) should be attacked for racism, for the sin of holding black people to the same standard as white people.

    Mr. grss, interesting answer on land ownership, but I did specifically ask about reparations for Yorkshiremen for the evils committed just under a thousand years ago, as the Harrowing of the Death had an immense death toll that permanently affected Yorkshire.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    Why distribute any of it nationally? You would perpetuate the injustice by giving people even more who, by your own argument, are benefitting from slavery even today.

    Attitudes like yours cannot be part of the global revolution I'm afraid.
    I understand you're sea lioning and trying to do an argument ad absurdum, but you are just wrong. There is enough wealth and material resource to improve the quality of life for the vast majority of people globally, even in the UK. Yes, someone like myself who is in the bottom half of earners in the UK but the top half of earners globally, may not see wealth raining down on them like mana from heaven, nor should we be the priority targets of such distribution, but we would still live in a better world.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,494
    Sean_F said:

    International affairs operate mainly on the principle that the strong do as they will, the weak as they must. Hegemonic powers like the USA accept restraints on their own behaviour, only insofar as adhering to the rules suits them.
    That was certainly my experience when working with international tax treaties involving the US.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,046
    Sean_F said:

    Without the Industrial Revolution, conquest of lands, plunder, and enslavement, would be very much norms today, as they were back in the day.

    Hang on, I thought we invented all that and the Roman Empire was a paradise of diversity?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,614
    148grss said:

    I understand you're sea lioning and trying to do an argument ad absurdum, but you are just wrong. There is enough wealth and material resource to improve the quality of life for the vast majority of people globally, even in the UK. Yes, someone like myself who is in the bottom half of earners in the UK but the top half of earners globally, may not see wealth raining down on them like mana from heaven, nor should we be the priority targets of such distribution, but we would still live in a better world.
    You are certainly not in the bottom half in the UK if you use GDP-style accounting which treats imputed rent as income.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,046
    148grss said:

    Yes. I mean, most workers would be, when looking at private individuals. When it comes to the wealth owned in common, that of the state, that's a bit more difficult. I think it is fair to accept that even our working class have benefitted from the state foundations built by slavery, at the expense of other countries and individuals. In that instance I think long term international aid, with no strings attached, and potentially individual reparation repayments (where individual descendants can be identified) would fit the bill. Personally if I was overlord of the UK that would be done via progressive means (taking wealth from the already wealthy and distributing it internationally as well as nationally), but, thankfully, I am not.
    Indeed.

    Thankfully, you are not.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,624

    Mr. Dee, the slave trade was alive and kicking in Africa long before the colonial powers arrived. Yet, for some mystical reason, the traders' descendants never get mentioned when scrounging for reparations. Nor does the fact it was colonial powers, led by Britain, that ended the slave trade.

    And it's hilarious you cite the race of the individuals, when you, seemingly (let me know if I'm mistaken), buy into the idea that white descendants are riddled with inherited guilt whereas black descendants of slave traders are not only unworthy of mention but anyone who does mention them (me) should be attacked for racism, for the sin of holding black people to the same standard as white people.

    Mr. grss, interesting answer on land ownership, but I did specifically ask about reparations for Yorkshiremen for the evils committed just under a thousand years ago, as the Harrowing of the Death had an immense death toll that permanently affected Yorkshire.

    West Africans and Europeans who drove the trade were equally evil.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,046
    Sean_F said:

    International affairs operate mainly on the principle that the strong do as they will, the weak as they must. Hegemonic powers like the USA accept restraints on their own behaviour, only insofar as adhering to the rules suits them.
    And, they even exhibit that behaviour to their closest allies - such as ourselves.

    The extradition treaty is absurdly one-sided and any American citizen who commits a crime here is quickly and safely whisked away.
  • If you are getting involved in foreigh affairs then you as a country had better be - a) strong, or, b) have a lot of friends who are strong. We stopped being (a) quite a while ago and our politicians have been fixated on alienating any friends we still had.

    Taking that Putin money has had consequences
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,046

    I think Norman reparations would bankrupt France so we really should be in favour of reparations.
    You could find some injustice in all of our families if you go back far enough.

    Life in the past was often nasty, brutish and short.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,046
    kyf_100 said:

    Since 75% of the English population were at one point serfs in indentured servitude, go far back enough, and we're all entitled to some compensation. Come to think of it, the Romans don't get out of reparations to us Brits just because they've cleverly rebranded themselves as "Italian".
    Not the greatest or most successful rebrand in history, to be honest.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,618

    I think Norman reparations would bankrupt France so we really should be in favour of reparations.
    I'm not touching the whole reparations argument.

    But I would note that the people most triggered by the idea are (entirely coincidentally) the same ones minimising the economic contribution of slavery to the development of the UK economy over the century and a half from around 1700.

    The converse seems of course to be true of those who think reparations a good idea.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,242
    He's just firing out any old shit that comes into his head now.

    https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1803018993118101771
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,614

    If you are getting involved in foreigh affairs then you as a country had better be - a) strong, or, b) have a lot of friends who are strong. We stopped being (a) quite a while ago and our politicians have been fixated on alienating any friends we still had.

    Taking that Putin money has had consequences

    The attitude that if you are not hegemonic you are nothing is quite strange.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,983

    Professorships in theology LOL. "Intellectual tennis without a net" (Daniel Dennett)
    Nice piece of lazy thinking there from one of what Schleiermacher would have called 'Religion's cultured despisers'. Puts 5 billion theists firmly in their place.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,624

    Hang on, I thought we invented all that and the Roman Empire was a paradise of diversity?
    The "woke Roman empire" is a hilarious piece of pseudo-history. Catherine Nixey for example described Third Century Rome as "liberal and tolerant", which would come as a surprise to any classical historian.

    In reality, anti-semitism was rife, the social order was maintained by theatrical displays of cruelty, rape (of women and boys) was an entirely legitimate means of punishment, and the kind of racist drivel that Juvenal spouted (about the Orontes pouring its filth into the Tiber) was commonplace.
  • Always someone elses fault.
    I wonder what it is about Nigel Farage's party that first attracted so many racists, white supremacists and antisemites?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,647
    In Chablis at the moment - actually the village of Milly up the road.

    What is of interest is the attitude to development. Milly is being slowly subsumed into Chablis as the town and the industrial side of the wine business continues to expand. In the U.K., they would be lying in front of the bulldozers. Here development and expansion is desired - and there are plenty of retired people who sit in the front gardens watching the world go by.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,026
    "Reform candidate called King Charles weak and questioned his loyalty
    Nigel Farage blames vetting ‘stitch-up’ as Angela Carter-Begbie joins list of conspiracists on the ballot"

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/reform-uk-angela-carter-begbie-king-charles-220fnsgb9
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,054

    He's just firing out any old shit that comes into his head now.

    https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1803018993118101771

    Mildly terrifying. The UK only produces 60% of our food consumption...

    What is he planning?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,026

    He's just firing out any old shit that comes into his head now.

    https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1803018993118101771

    Has someone hacked his account?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,699

    He's just firing out any old shit that comes into his head now.

    https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1803018993118101771

    How the fuck does that actually work - even at the time of the corn laws we were reliant on imports of food
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,748

    He's just firing out any old shit that comes into his head now.

    https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1803018993118101771

    Wow. The worry here is that the consumers of Australia and New Zealand retaliate with their own boycotts and then completely destroy the Truss's acclaimed trade deal. Rishi is showing a reckless disregard towards the legacy of Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,367

    Latest Scotland Westminster voting intention (3-7 June)

    Lab: 34% (-5 from 13-17 May)
    SNP: 30% (+1)
    Con: 13% (+1)
    Lib Dem: 8% (=)
    Reform: 7% (+3)
    Green: 6% (-1


    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1803008088514953401

    Gives Labour 32 Scottish seats, SNP 19, LDs 5 and Tories 1
    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?type=scotland&SCOTCON=13&SCOTLAB=34&SCOTLIB=8&SCOTNAT=30&SCOTReform=7&SCOTGreen=6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,054

    Wow. The worry here is that the consumers of Australia and New Zealand retaliate with their own boycotts and then completely destroy the Truss's acclaimed trade deal. Rishi is showing a reckless disregard towards the legacy of Brexit.
    He's showing a reckless disregard for human life. Stock up on beans.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,618
    .
    Sean_F said:

    Slave owners tend to be lazy, like people who have access to vast natural resources The profits of slavery will go into a new wing for one's country house, art, race horses, more than into devising more efficient ways of working. The South of the USA for example, had fallen a very long way behind the North, by 1860. Bizarrely, almost all slave owners died deeply in debt (like Jefferson), because of their conspicuous, and ostentatious, consumption.
    That's certainly true of the Southern US - but was there no net contribution to the continental economy ? That would seem unlikely.

    And in any event, I'm not sure what it has to do with my point about the economic contribution to the UK economy ? Fans of Coulson would be similarly puzzled.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,054
    eek said:

    How the fuck does that actually work - even at the time of the corn laws we were reliant on imports of food
    Evergreen tweet: https://x.com/AnimarchyYT/status/1795642275634241640
  • In Chablis at the moment - actually the village of Milly up the road.

    What is of interest is the attitude to development. Milly is being slowly subsumed into Chablis as the town and the industrial side of the wine business continues to expand. In the U.K., they would be lying in front of the bulldozers. Here development and expansion is desired - and there are plenty of retired people who sit in the front gardens watching the world go by.

    I don't know how it is in France, but in the parts of Germany that I know, development is generally welcomed because it means that more money will be coming into town and that means more schools, shops, etc. That goes for both commercial development (local taxes) and residential development (more money from regional/central government). Maybe we are missing the links between development and funding for local amenities?
  • He's just firing out any old shit that comes into his head now.

    https://x.com/RishiSunak/status/1803018993118101771

    What a load of small minded, autarkish, ignorant crap.

    Don't just buy British, buy good quality, affordable products.

    If those are British, great.

    If those are Spanish, Australian, Argentinian or anywhere else ... great too.

    Sunak should learn some economics from David Riccardo. Or better yet, just go away altogether.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,618

    The attitude that if you are not hegemonic you are nothing is quite strange.
    The argument is rather that if you're not hegemonic, you shouldn't delude yourself about your place in the world
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,647
    Sean_F said:

    Slave owners tend to be lazy, like people who have access to vast natural resources The profits of slavery will go into a new wing for one's country house, art, race horses, more than into devising more efficient ways of working. The South of the USA for example, had fallen a very long way behind the North, by 1860. Bizarrely, almost all slave owners died deeply in debt (like Jefferson), because of their conspicuous, and ostentatious, consumption.
    The debt thing wasn’t bizarre or surprising. Slave plantations were, effectively, large industrial operations (for the day). With human machinery. The whole thing was expensive, cyclic and required massive reinvestment at regular intervals. For example, the land for cotton became exhausted and you needed to move the growing operation.

    The income from selling the cotton was part of the yearly cycle and often out of sync with the costs. Which were on a variety of period cycles - some much longer than a year.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,614
    Andy_JS said:

    Has someone hacked his account?
    It’s a highly nuanced strategy of tweeting whatever he thinks a group of Reform voters would say.
This discussion has been closed.