The BBC are all over Farage and his campaign. He's been up front pretty much every day for a week. I think it's a sort of BBC project fear, but I'm sure that they've miscalculated.
It's a f-ing disgrace in my opinion. Why are other small parties not getting this kind of daily exposure?
Farage is never off the Today programme this campaign.
Reform UK on polling is not a small party. They are a mid-sized party. I think the only party that can complain are the LibDems, and Reform UK do nearly always outpoll the LibDems.
The Tories with their weird try to park their tank on Reform lawn early on, only then to launch a manifesto that was the biggest nothingness, keep calm and carry on doing the same thing, really are in no-man's land.
Reform would raise income tax threshold to £20k and VAT threshold to £150k.
Welfare claimants who refuse two job offers would lose their benefits
Do they have a plan for how to pay for all this, or is it just Trussonomics on steroids?
I'm as pro business economically as they come - but the last time the Tufton Street brigade's ideas got anywhere near implementation without proper planning, we had a full blown economic crisis on our hands.
I'm actually increasingly worried we will see a slow burner crisis under the next few years with Labour, tbh. Capital flight and brain drain. Not an immediate crisis, but a slow reduction in tax take and productivity decline.
You're having a Laffer, of course they don't.
The point about Labour is a more interesting one. Do they have any real growth plans of any significance ?
Like most of the Labour manifesto, there is a lot of buzzwords without a lot of substance.
"Labour will introduce a new industrial strategy. Our approach will be mission-driven and focused on the future. We will work in partnership with industry to seize opportunities and remove barriers to growth."
Well yeah, who wouldn't? Where's the detail, though? How do you plan to do it?
The only solid things the manifesto provides are the creation of a "national wealth fund" (without really telling us what it is, how much it will be worth, what it does in practice) coupled with the following spending promises which, given the size of the UK economy is 2.27 trillion, looks like faffing around a bit at the edges:
£1.8 billion to upgrade ports and build supply chains across the UK £1.5 billion to new gigafactories so our automotive industry leads the world £2.5 billion to rebuild our steel industry £1 billion to accelerate the deployment of carbon capture £500 million to support the manufacturing of green hydrogen.
Not really a plan to get the UK out of its slump.
Couple that with likely tax rises for everyone through indirect taxes, as well as fiscal drag, plus a few populist, bash-the-rich policies that see some HNWIs flee the UK, and you have a recipe for continued managed decline rather than a plan to rejuvenate the economy.
Sunak has committed £20bn to carbon capture - which I'd probably cut as an investment in obsolete dead end technology. I'd use some of that to massively upgrade our electricity grid.
£1.5bn might incentivise the building of a couple of gigafactories by someone; it's certainly not going to lead to out industry "leading the world". China has spent 2-300bn on that.
Increasing productivity significantly requires a LOT of investment, Government ought to be thinking how it might cost-effectively incentivise that. The other bits they've mentioned aren't daft, but they're not of massive significance.
JL partners with 41 ConRef 54 LLG Which is out of line with others but makes things a bit more interesting
Yes, highest RefCon/ConRef combination for a long time. It implies Ref are getting some votes from other anti-Tory parties (LD down 2 in this poll for example) and perhaps the bloc effect is weakening.
First Post crossover poll too. I think a big anti politics effect is starting to show up.
Very much following the pattern of the Cleggasm in 2010. But somewhat more subdued. The Lib Dems had a few polls hitting 30%.
What will concern the Tories the most (apart from being miles behind) is that not a single poll in over a week has had then gaining %, all level or in decline. Labour mainly in decline but a couple with added %. Suggests DKs breaking for Reform and very few coming 'home' to blue or indeed red
There was a real tetchiness in Mandelson's remarks about Reform over the weekend, as if he thought it was the Tories' job to soak up their votes (and therefore keep safe Labour seats safe).
The more the Tories collapse, the harder it becomes for Labour in areas that they are used to taking for granted.
A result along the lines of Lab 35 Con 24 Ref 22 LD 10 Green 4 SnP/PC 3 Others 2
Could mean anything from Lab mega landslide to almost HP depending on vote splits. If Reform have taken what Con they can and start cannibalising Labour votes, the 2019 Con to Lab votes basically, this isn't impossible. And yet it feels like it should be.......
That's a very interesting prediction. I've got a spread of bets on Labour from 34%-40%, and the lower half (particularly <36% at 20/1) could offer some black swan value.
The BBC are all over Farage and his campaign. He's been up front pretty much every day for a week. I think it's a sort of BBC project fear, but I'm sure that they've miscalculated.
I am planning to watch the results on ITV, but if Reform do badly, I will turn over to the BBC to watch the presenters’ faces. I would expect Kuenssberg to look like a melted wellie.
Eh? I find the idea that the BBC are backing Reform astonishing.
Watching the BBC announce the results of the Brexit referendum was like watching them announce the death of the Queen. Even the coverage of the results of the 2019 GE had the sombre air of a death. The BBC's worldview ranges from hard left to centrist. Arguably there might be one or two who quietly favour Cameronite conservatism, but you get no further right than that.
Where might I find this uber left wing BBC? The one I am listening to now (R4 WATO) is busy fellating Nigel Farage.
Indeed. I always laugh when folk accuse the BBC of being left wing. It is metropolitan, and in my mind is biased to whoever is currently in charge or on the up. I doubt there are any “hard left” or “hard right” on staff.
But, they’ve always had a good slug of staff that are members or former members of the Conservative Party. Allegra Stratton, Guto Harri immediately spring to mind. Nick Robinson was a member of the Conservatives in his youth. Sir Robbie Gibb is currently on the Board.
I am sure there are others that jump the other way and end up working for Labour. ‘Twas ever thus.
I'm old enough to remember Norman Tebbit complaining that the BBC was too "anti-government"
My brother a life-long conservative voter commented at the time, it is the role of the BBC should to be more anti- than pro-government, that's called good journalism.
P.S. that was not during election time. The BBC has a responsibility to be neutral during an election campaign.
"Tony Blair says 'a woman has a vagina and a man has a penis' as he takes aim at politicians in a 'muddle' over 'common sense' transgender issues in veiled swipe at Keir Starmer"
"Tony Blair says 'a woman has a vagina and a man has a penis' as he takes aim at politicians in a 'muddle' over 'common sense' transgender issues in veiled swipe at Keir Starmer"
Trouble is, of course, that there are a small number of people to whom the gods who deal with genes has been particularly unkind and who therefore regard themselves as either women with penises or men with vaginas. In other words their brains, and some at least of their hormones, do not match their genitals. Once upon a time such people either kept their heads well down and lived their lives in various degrees of misery, or, if they were sufficiently wealthy, managed on a 'damn you, I don't care' basis towards the world. An attitude which, at least in the UK appears to have been easier for women than men. Now we are, perhaps, more forgiving, and are prepared to make allowances.
The question is, how do we do that? As an old man, I'm inclined to the view that, so long as they don't brighten the horses, I'm for live and let live.
As are most people OKC, problem is that some people have been frightening the horses and going too far and have caused the big backlash. Be hard to get the genie back in the bottle now. For me they have been trying to invade women's rights by claiming they deserve the same rights and that is not on.
JL partners with 41 ConRef 54 LLG Which is out of line with others but makes things a bit more interesting
Yes, highest RefCon/ConRef combination for a long time. It implies Ref are getting some votes from other anti-Tory parties (LD down 2 in this poll for example) and perhaps the bloc effect is weakening.
First Post crossover poll too. I think a big anti politics effect is starting to show up.
Very much following the pattern of the Cleggasm in 2010. But somewhat more subdued. The Lib Dems had a few polls hitting 30%.
What will concern the Tories the most (apart from being miles behind) is that not a single poll in over a week has had then gaining %, all level or in decline. Labour mainly in decline but a couple with added %. Suggests DKs breaking for Reform and very few coming 'home' to blue or indeed red
There was a real tetchiness in Mandelson's remarks about Reform over the weekend, as if he thought it was the Tories' job to soak up their votes (and therefore keep safe Labour seats safe).
The more the Tories collapse, the harder it becomes for Labour in areas that they are used to taking for granted.
A result along the lines of Lab 35 Con 24 Ref 22 LD 10 Green 4 SnP/PC 3 Others 2
Could mean anything from Lab mega landslide to almost HP depending on vote splits. If Reform have taken what Con they can and start cannibalising Labour votes, the 2019 Con to Lab votes basically, this isn't impossible. And yet it feels like it should be.......
Every time we get a poll with Labour in the low 40s/high 30s we get posts of the ilk: "if my aunt had a willy she'd be my uncle".
The simple truth remains: No Overall Majority (NOM) is trading at 26 – twenty six! – on Betfair Exchange. It has lengthened since last week. If you think NOM is value, presumably you are all-in on that that free money?
Reform would raise income tax threshold to £20k and VAT threshold to £150k.
Welfare claimants who refuse two job offers would lose their benefits
Do they have a plan for how to pay for all this, or is it just Trussonomics on steroids?
I'm as pro business economically as they come - but the last time the Tufton Street brigade's ideas got anywhere near implementation without proper planning, we had a full blown economic crisis on our hands.
I'm actually increasingly worried we will see a slow burner crisis under the next few years with Labour, tbh. Capital flight and brain drain. Not an immediate crisis, but a slow reduction in tax take and productivity decline.
You're having a Laffer, of course they don't.
The point about Labour is a more interesting one. Do they have any real growth plans of any significance ?
To get growth, we need better productivity, I am hearing even less about how we go about this.
also need peopel to start working, keep hearing how bad things are yet you see lots of how o ne parent families spend ethir 2.5K in hand benefits , and yet working people get nothing and hav eto pay all their bills, rent , etc , etc. May not be everybody but lots of wasters out their living well off the state.
JL partners with 41 ConRef 54 LLG Which is out of line with others but makes things a bit more interesting
Yes, highest RefCon/ConRef combination for a long time. It implies Ref are getting some votes from other anti-Tory parties (LD down 2 in this poll for example) and perhaps the bloc effect is weakening.
First Post crossover poll too. I think a big anti politics effect is starting to show up.
Very much following the pattern of the Cleggasm in 2010. But somewhat more subdued. The Lib Dems had a few polls hitting 30%.
What will concern the Tories the most (apart from being miles behind) is that not a single poll in over a week has had then gaining %, all level or in decline. Labour mainly in decline but a couple with added %. Suggests DKs breaking for Reform and very few coming 'home' to blue or indeed red
There was a real tetchiness in Mandelson's remarks about Reform over the weekend, as if he thought it was the Tories' job to soak up their votes (and therefore keep safe Labour seats safe).
The more the Tories collapse, the harder it becomes for Labour in areas that they are used to taking for granted.
A result along the lines of Lab 35 Con 24 Ref 22 LD 10 Green 4 SnP/PC 3 Others 2
Could mean anything from Lab mega landslide to almost HP depending on vote splits. If Reform have taken what Con they can and start cannibalising Labour votes, the 2019 Con to Lab votes basically, this isn't impossible. And yet it feels like it should be.......
Every time we get a poll with Labour in the low 40s/high 30s we get posts of the ilk: "if my aunt had a willy she'd be my uncle".
Reform would raise income tax threshold to £20k and VAT threshold to £150k.
Welfare claimants who refuse two job offers would lose their benefits
Surely raising IC threshold to £20k would be eye wateringly expensive.
The IFS say it would cost £31bn to increase the personal allowance by £2,500 to £15,070...
Per annum ?
Very rough maths on Reform's proposal (if it is still in the manifesto): PA raised to say £20 K from 12.5 K. Look only at IT, ignore NI. That's £1500 per tax payer (20% of £7.5K). Multiply by 30 million IT payers: Result: it costs £45 billion per annum. Serious cash.
Reform would raise income tax threshold to £20k and VAT threshold to £150k.
Welfare claimants who refuse two job offers would lose their benefits
Do they have a plan for how to pay for all this, or is it just Trussonomics on steroids?
I'm as pro business economically as they come - but the last time the Tufton Street brigade's ideas got anywhere near implementation without proper planning, we had a full blown economic crisis on our hands.
I'm actually increasingly worried we will see a slow burner crisis under the next few years with Labour, tbh. Capital flight and brain drain. Not an immediate crisis, but a slow reduction in tax take and productivity decline.
You're having a Laffer, of course they don't.
The point about Labour is a more interesting one. Do they have any real growth plans of any significance ?
Growth is from private companies not government
The big question is why Google, nvidia, OpenAI, novo nordisk, tesla, tmsc etc aren’t British !! The only big tech corp we have is arm which we let get sold off to asia. Hope future govts make it harder to do that !!
Think UK unis should need to answer why we arent getting companies and innovation coming out of them given the amount money paid to them. Prob due to focus on foreign students plus mediocre uk students due to poor parenting snd low standards in UK schools !!
Reform would raise income tax threshold to £20k and VAT threshold to £150k.
Welfare claimants who refuse two job offers would lose their benefits
Surely raising IC threshold to £20k would be eye wateringly expensive.
The IFS say it would cost £31bn to increase the personal allowance by £2,500 to £15,070...
Per annum ?
Very rough maths on Reform's proposal (if it is still in the manifesto): PA raised to say £20 K from 12.5 K. Look only at IT, ignore NI. That's £1500 per tax payer (20% of £7.5K). Multiply by 30 million IT payers: Result: it costs £45 billion per annum. Serious cash.
The IFS calculation also assumes NICs threshold are increased, and you also have people who are currently paying 40% where they may save £3,000 from the change.
1st like Labour, but not as much as current polling tells you
I know what you mean, but we've all been expecting swingback for ages, and it hasn't happened yet and there are- at most- 17 days to go.
(And for the 1 in 6 or so who vote by post, voting day is approximately now.)
Yep and those people are likely to be older voters.
I do, however, need to point out we have seen some swing back - note BigG’s change of vote
True, though BigG is unusual, in the ways most of us here are.
Partly in following the ebb and flow so closely. But also in having a partisan loyalty that, when push comes to shove, takes an awful lot to overcome.
(Really hope I've phrased that in a way that doesn't cause offence.)
Just a shame we had to read months of his rubbish when it always would come down to doing whatever his wife told him to do, with exactly the same trajectory and outcome as in 2019.
But I agree it's a straw in the wind and the betting value is surely in the Tory holds right now.
The whole "I had a conversation with my wife" thing is entirely him hiding behind her skirts to justify his reversion to the rut. It's his way of taking offence at any criticism by pretending that they're somehow attacking his wife. He's hair-trigger touchy these days. He's accused two different people of personal attacks in recent days when they were simply disagreeing with him or probing something he was saying that didn't sound right. But that's what happens when you adopt a position you yourself have spent months attacking. You're bound to be touchy.
Still, plenty of time for him to change his mind again and vote for Plaid Cymru and the future glory of an independent Wales. Cymru am byth!
Time to leave Big_G alone, I think.
I was happy to gently take the piss when he announced his 'shock' decision, but it's really unfair to continue attacking a single PBer for what isn't a particularly outlandish decision. He understandably touchy if everyone continues piling on.
I got thinking about it because of his super-sensitive touchiness about things that were utterly unrelated to his vote volte-face. It was very weird so I got thinking about what must be going on in his head. Wallowing in victimhood when other people were very gently debating things like drones is a kind of control drama. It's a way of silencing other people by making any kind of disagreement haram.
G can vote however he likes. Like others, I never believed him about switching and found his inevitable u-turn simply amusing. But since then he's been excessively whiny about, frankly, nothing at all. Example: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4838775#Comment_4838775 and of course the nonsense about showering that successfully got him out of an awkward spot when he was talking out of his hat about drones.
That kind of grievance-mongering doesn't help debate, and indulging it just makes it worse. If HYUFD's comment really was "amazingly disrespectful" to him and his wife then what hope is there for any political conversations at all?
Point of order
Since my recent health and mobility issues it was not nonsense when I said I cannot shower in the bath, it is a fact
The drone issue in Wales is widely reported here and has not be denied by the Welsh government who are committed to increasing council tax bands, a policy I favour
What drones? Please, what drones?
You've refused to provide evidence of them. All the Welsh Government will do is use standard commercial databases (including Ordnance Survey). And those use manned aircraft and maybe space satellites. Not the little things that the chap down the road flies and which might look into people's back gardens.
...Since my recent health and mobility issues it was not nonsense when I said I cannot shower in the bath...
If it helps, you can get walk-in showers with seats in them and the council will chip in with things like rails. I have disabled rellies and they get stuff like that. Although I don't know if you already have them.
Thank you for your kind suggestion but at present with the help of strategically placed grips I can still get in and out the bath but I cannot stand in it under the shower
In the same hopefully helpful vein, if you have a shower over your bath, there are things called Bath Boards that are solid to sit on across your bath.
I supplied one of these to one of my tenants, who is 7x years old, where it was impossible for me to install a shower seat as we did at home for mum. 9 months later the tenants are happy with it. It is robust.
The alternative would be to have ripped the bathroom out to install a walk-in shower, which since I do good bathrooms in my rentals I was not too keen on only 6 years after refurb.
(If you want to nerd on Accessible Ablutions, I wrote a series of 6 articles for a self-build forum when we did adaptions at home for mum. Link on request :-). )
...Since my recent health and mobility issues it was not nonsense when I said I cannot shower in the bath...
If it helps, you can get walk-in showers with seats in them and the council will chip in with things like rails. I have disabled rellies and they get stuff like that. Although I don't know if you already have them.
Thank you for your kind suggestion but at present with the help of strategically placed grips I can still get in and out the bath but I cannot stand in it under the shower
In the same hopefully helpful vein, if you have a shower over your bath, there are things called Bath Boards that are solid to sit on across your bath.
I supplied one of these to one of my tenants, who is 7x years old, where it was impossible for me to install a shower seat as we did at home for mum. 9 months later the tenants are happy with it. It is robust.
I fitted it across the wide section of a shower-bath. A snug fit of the adjustable part to the bath width is the important aspect, as the main H&S risk which has to be managed is it slipping sideways and falling down whilst you are sitting on it. The important point is to prevent any cross-bath movement.
The alternative would be to have ripped the bathroom out to install a walk-in shower, which since I do good bathrooms in my rentals I was not too keen on only 6 years after refurb.
(If you want to nerd on Accessible Ablutions, I wrote a series of 6 articles for a self-build forum when we did adaptions at home for mum. Link on request ! )
JL partners with 41 ConRef 54 LLG Which is out of line with others but makes things a bit more interesting
Yes, highest RefCon/ConRef combination for a long time. It implies Ref are getting some votes from other anti-Tory parties (LD down 2 in this poll for example) and perhaps the bloc effect is weakening.
First Post crossover poll too. I think a big anti politics effect is starting to show up.
Very much following the pattern of the Cleggasm in 2010. But somewhat more subdued. The Lib Dems had a few polls hitting 30%.
What will concern the Tories the most (apart from being miles behind) is that not a single poll in over a week has had then gaining %, all level or in decline. Labour mainly in decline but a couple with added %. Suggests DKs breaking for Reform and very few coming 'home' to blue or indeed red
There was a real tetchiness in Mandelson's remarks about Reform over the weekend, as if he thought it was the Tories' job to soak up their votes (and therefore keep safe Labour seats safe).
The more the Tories collapse, the harder it becomes for Labour in areas that they are used to taking for granted.
Even Reform fanboi Matthew Goodwin doesn't believe Team Farage will win as many as half a dozen seats. Although BBC WATO found lots of voters who were happy to take a punt on them. Most important issue was illegal migration, second most was legal migration, and it would appear Nigel has some dark arts magic, some smoke and some mirrors to make those issues go away.
Comments
£1.5bn might incentivise the building of a couple of gigafactories by someone; it's certainly not going to lead to out industry "leading the world". China has spent 2-300bn on that.
Increasing productivity significantly requires a LOT of investment, Government ought to be thinking how it might cost-effectively incentivise that. The other bits they've mentioned aren't daft, but they're not of massive significance.
NEW THREAD
My brother a life-long conservative voter commented at the time, it is the role of the BBC should to be more anti- than pro-government, that's called good journalism.
P.S. that was not during election time. The BBC has a responsibility to be neutral during an election campaign.
You and @williamglenn are specialists of the art.
The simple truth remains: No Overall Majority (NOM) is trading at 26 – twenty six! – on Betfair Exchange. It has lengthened since last week. If you think NOM is value, presumably you are all-in on that that free money?
The big question is why Google, nvidia, OpenAI, novo nordisk, tesla, tmsc etc aren’t British !! The only big tech corp we have is arm which we let get sold off to asia. Hope future govts make it harder to do that !!
Think UK unis should need to answer why we arent getting companies and innovation coming out of them given the amount money paid to them. Prob due to focus on foreign students plus mediocre uk students due to poor parenting snd low standards in UK schools !!
You've refused to provide evidence of them. All the Welsh Government will do is use standard commercial databases (including Ordnance Survey). And those use manned aircraft and maybe space satellites. Not the little things that the chap down the road flies and which might look into people's back gardens.
I supplied one of these to one of my tenants, who is 7x years old, where it was impossible for me to install a shower seat as we did at home for mum. 9 months later the tenants are happy with it. It is robust.
The alternative would be to have ripped the bathroom out to install a walk-in shower, which since I do good bathrooms in my rentals I was not too keen on only 6 years after refurb.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B07KSHC1RX
(If you want to nerd on Accessible Ablutions, I wrote a series of 6 articles for a self-build forum when we did adaptions at home for mum. Link on request :-). )
I supplied one of these to one of my tenants, who is 7x years old, where it was impossible for me to install a shower seat as we did at home for mum. 9 months later the tenants are happy with it. It is robust.
I fitted it across the wide section of a shower-bath. A snug fit of the adjustable part to the bath width is the important aspect, as the main H&S risk which has to be managed is it slipping sideways and falling down whilst you are sitting on it. The important point is to prevent any cross-bath movement.
The alternative would be to have ripped the bathroom out to install a walk-in shower, which since I do good bathrooms in my rentals I was not too keen on only 6 years after refurb.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B07KSHC1RX
(If you want to nerd on Accessible Ablutions, I wrote a series of 6 articles for a self-build forum when we did adaptions at home for mum. Link on request ! )