The real story is the stunning decline in the quality of the BBC and perhaps to Channel 4.
To take one example, a great documentary from the BBC is now astonishingly rare. The last one I can think of was “Once Upon a Time in Northern Ireland”.
The quality of political coverage is at an all time low, too.
It’s a pity, because @bigjohnowls ’s other point about whether Labour this time will under-poll their 2017 result in raw vote is a good one, and not a bad bet at 13/8
Whats a pity?
That you have totally misinterpreted what i said with the Survation data and continue to dig?
The original fault was in your woeful presentation of what you were attempting to show.
GB Shaw: “The single biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place.”
Survation data has slightly different fieldwork dates ('5-11 June, 60% conducted 10-11 June) - but imagine it's methodology playing a big part of the difference.
See also: another poll showing the Greens on 8%!
Labour now below 1997 New Labour voteshare levels with both Survation and Verian but heading for more seats thanks to the divide on the right
You’re desperate to learn the wrong lesson, yet after election day it’s quite likely that this ‘divided right’ narrative will take root, just as ‘divided left’ took root after Labour’s 1983 debacle. Yet both are wrong - research is clear that had the SDP disappeared from 1983’s election, Labour would have lost by even more, and there’s no doubt this time that if Reform simply disappeared from the ballot paper, the Tories would still be thrown out on their ear.
The large SDP vote though ensured a landslide Thatcher majority under FPTP given the few seats they won, Reform will also win 10-15% but less than 5 seats most likely and most of their voters voted for Boris in 2019
It’s a pity, because @bigjohnowls ’s other point about whether Labour this time will under-poll their 2017 result in raw vote is a good one, and not a bad bet at 13/8
Whats a pity?
That you have totally misinterpreted what i said with the Survation data and continue to dig?
What you posted up was similar to quoting a sub sample. Finding whatever you can present something to make the green position look healthier than it actually is.
So, how many times are you going to avoid the biggest question PB can ask you - will Greens get 4 or more at the Genny, or less than 4?
Does anyone else think there's basically nothing left for the Tories to be able to meaningfully increase their vote share from here?
We've had all the big announcements. It's not really appealing to anyone. It seems like the only way it can go from here is down, especially if Rishi keeps making gaffes.
There appears to have been a big pivot to 'Don't give Keir a supermajority!' in the last 24 hours. I don't know effective this will be. They are waving the White Flag, whereas from the other 3 non-Labour parties:
Davey can say "Vote for me, former Tories, and I'll be your sensible LOTO"
Farage has already been saying "Keir Starmer is going to be PM" and repeating that "I have a 5 year plan to be the new real opposition."
The Greens can attract much more of a 'noble' protest vote if the election already feels like a foregone - attracting votes from discontented Labour voters, too.
And all of the above are helped by the fact that 'Keir Starmer will be PM!' just isn't scaring a lot of the non-Labour vote like Corbyn or even the threats of Miliband/Sturgeon 'coalition of chaos' did.
I think what will be decisive, is how much the tactical vote message cuts through. It might even be in the mutual interest of the Lib Dems, ReformUK AND the Greens to all use the 'Keir Starmer is going to be PM' line and see if the combined effect turns people away from CON/LAB like never before.
If the message that 'The Tories have lost anyway' gets real cut through then we might see some weird things happen on election day.
I agree about weird things.
It's well within the realm of possibility that the Conservatives get 30% vote share from a combination of complacency from Labour voters and futility from Reform and Green voters. A very low turnout scenario. The 20% for the Tories aren't going anywhere at this stage - this really is the floor I think, particularly after D-Day and Farage.
That's not to say they win more than 100 seats. They might still be horribly punished by FPTP and tactical voting.
What on earth is the media going to cover for the next three weeks?
The manifestos are nearly all out. The Reform surge had peaked too early. The Rishi-is-shit meme has become boring if not overdone. Even Davey’s watersports are losing their sparkle.
That’s sweet that you think the media are passive observers. They will want a story, news, angles, gossip, WhatsApp’s from “sources. The best way they can do that is to push for a remarkable Sunak comeback.
The reporting of the details and facts is not that important.
Oh and the ongoing search for Ed Davey last seen off Lands End on an inflatable unicorn after highlighting the small boats policy.
The real story is the stunning decline in the quality of the BBC and perhaps to Channel 4.
To take one example, a great documentary from the BBC is now astonishingly rare. The last one I can think of was “Once Upon a Time in Northern Ireland”.
The quality of political coverage is at an all time low, too.
Indeed. Chris Mason has been disappointing, in absolute terms. He has only benefitted from following Laura K – who was a walking press release. The worse political editor they have had in my lifetime by a country mile.
No they aren’t. And you posted seat numbers. I’m not sure where you have gone wrong but you’re in a right royal muddle on this one.
A reminder that Survation gave:
Cons 23% Labour 41% LibDems 10% Reform 12% Greens 6% SNP 3%
Which would lead roughly to:
Conservative 102 Labour 458 Liberal Democrats 46 Green 2 SNP 14 Reform 3
p.s. I can’t quite work out which table you’ve mis-applied @bigjohnowls but you’ve gone wrong somewhere in that data set. I mean, spotting 19 Green and 81 LibDems MPs in 2019 should make you see that?
I believe he was quoting the raw number of respondents data
Ya but even that doesn’t make sense of those figures.
Anyway this isn’t the best use of my time.
Heathener declares it a score draw and flouncs
Even though I was 100% correct with my raw dara post and Heathener completely misunderstood it ans was 0% correct with his responses he got more likes so there we have it.
Hold your heads in shame Sandpit, MoonRabbit, Et Al
A couple of posters like TSE, WollieDyed and Biggles 100% understood the point i was making ie that although Lab leads there were a lot of undecideds.
PB is not what it used to be but i suppose betting against people who dont understand things can be a profitable business
What on earth is the media going to cover for the next three weeks?
The manifestos are nearly all out. The Reform surge had peaked too early. The Rishi-is-shit meme has become boring if not overdone. Even Davey’s watersports are losing their sparkle.
That’s sweet that you think the media are passive observers. They will want a story, news, angles, gossip, WhatsApp’s from “sources. The best way they can do that is to push for a remarkable Sunak comeback.
The reporting of the details and facts is not that important.
Oh and the ongoing search for Ed Davey last seen off Lands End on an inflatable unicorn after highlighting the small boats policy.
Oh I agree. I think a modest rise in Tory fortunes is likely from here.
With a full ballot prompt, we are seeing the initial effects of tactical voting. Asked the direct question. a plurality say they would"
"Would you or would you not vote for a party that was not your first choice in order to stop a party that you dislike from winning?"
Would - 45% Would not - 43% Don’t know - 12%
45% are prepared to vote for a party which is not their first choice, if it meant denying a party they did not like from winning. We see evidence of this in the voting intention figures too, where 38% of 2019 Lib Dem voters say they intend to vote Labour, as do 9% of Green voters. 6% of Labour 2019 voters say they will vote Green, 5% for the Lib Dems.
It’s time to talk TV (tactical vote, not vests for tarantula’s)
I tried it last night, and intelligent PBers Ben Farooq just took the piss. But as a betting site, the impact of TV on both seats and eventual proportional of vote (PV) once all votes counted, can be huge.
TV normally happens when you are best placed to get the Tory out.
Labour are the biggest TV winners. Any bet on them getting less than 43% PV is a wasted bet once you factor in TV. Labour will get TV from Lib Dem’s, Greens and Reform. Lib Dem’s can get up to 15% PV or more with TV from Labour and the Greens. Greens get TV from no one. They get squeezed. Tories might get a bit of TV from Labour in Scotland? more than Labour get TV from the Tories in Scotland?
I understand your point now you've defined what the abbreviations mean. TV I guessed. PV was a mystery to me.
Point of order: it's well established that I'm a mid-wattage Dundee bedsit wanker who stares at bollards all day. Calling me intelligent, like me, doesn't wash.
Point of order refused. It’s well established fact in PB, anyone who describes their life in such detail is making it all up. You are in fact an Oxbridge educated high class hooker, who lives in Belgravia and works under the name of Lexie.
Sorry for doxing you. Miss.
Close enough
So close he has visited Belgravia I think
Of course. Where I used to live it was 10 minute walk away!
Been following all your posts Malc. You are very conservative in your values and outlook arn’t you?
I am indeed, A conservative with a heart, with no time for lazy slackers , selfish gits and ne'er do wells.
Maybe Independence now looking further off, SNP slipping at both devolved government and achieving independence, because SNP claimed to represent everyone’s views and outlooks, on basis that person additionally supports independence. Maybe there should be more than one Scottish Independence seeking party competing to run the devolved Scottish Parliament - one for Conservative minds one for progressives/woke - who can unite to campaign for and win the Independence Referendum, as that being perhaps the only big policy they do share - so compete with each other the rest of the time? Your vote coukd never be so homeless?
Scottish Independence should be looking to compete directly with Lab, Con, LibDem, unionist parties, with a Scottish National equivalent of them - otherwise furthering independence will just go up and down on a cycle of popularity. Falling into the trap devolution is supposed to be?
Do the PB Sports-Loving Sky Refuseniks also refuse to watch Sky Sports at their friends' houses and in the pub?
Or is it just screening it in their own homes they object to?
I took my Dad to a sports bar showing one of the 2019 Ashes Test matches for an agreeably boozy lunch after a morning walk along the Water of Leith, once, yes.
Apparently humans are also inconsistent. Surprise!
We have established your irrationality and inconsistency now, for which I thank you.
I find the whole thing Sky Sports Refuse-ism bizarre – but it is undoubtably A Thing. And there are millions like you. You are not at all unusual in this regard.
Why bizarre?
Some people really dislike the legacy of Murdoch in general.
Some dislike what the Big Money has done to football in particular.
Some refuse to pay what they see as rip off prices.
Some, like me, don’t watch football.
If you don't like football/sport in general than it's perfectly rational not to subscribe to Sky.
If you do like sport then Comcast (not Murdoch) owned Sky Sports is pretty much essential.
I don't like what Big Money has done to football either –– but that's a wider issue that includes state-owned clubs etc not just Sky.
£30/month to indulge a passion/hobby is peanuts.
My Warhammer budget is only €20 a month at the moment, and I haven't been keeping track of how much money I'm spending driving to trailheads. £30 a month is quite a lot of money for many people.
I took this photo from the top of one Irish Hump recently. Quiz questions: 1. Where was I? 2. What is it a photo of? 3. Which moderately famous person lives in the field of view (and would be a better election night host)?
Conservative 160 Labour 280 Liberal Democrat 75 Reform UK 77 Other 89 Undecided 181
Published VI Con 23 Lab 41 LD 10 Ref 12 Green 6 Others 7
2019 GE
Conservative 314 Labour 265 Liberal Democrat 81 Green 19 SNP 32 Other 31
I've never seen data presented in this way and it seems very misleading
Well its the Raw Date table so thats how Survation presented it
I literally sent the link in a later post and still you try to make out its not and spout some bollocks about seats which is nothing to do with my post
Grow up and click on the Survation Data Table from their GMB Poll
Now, I deliberately didn't say whom I thought was being misleading, because I didn't know. If you're copying those seat totals with "Undecided 181" from them, then it's not you, it's them. But I don't give a fuck whether it's you or them. It's misleading. Completely misleading.
What seat totals Only Heathener and you think its seat totals
What on earth is the media going to cover for the next three weeks?
The manifestos are nearly all out. The Reform surge had peaked too early. The Rishi-is-shit meme has become boring if not overdone. Even Davey’s watersports are losing their sparkle.
The real story is the stunning decline in the quality of the BBC and perhaps to Channel 4.
To take one example, a great documentary from the BBC is now astonishingly rare. The last one I can think of was “Once Upon a Time in Northern Ireland”.
The quality of political coverage is at an all time low, too.
I suspect the bigger problem is that the audience has fractured faster than the process of making TV has cheapened. The point about reality, panel shows and infotainment is that they're way cheaper to make than scripted fiction or investigate news. And if you have fewer eyeballs watching, it's harder to justify the expense of making good stuff.
I doubt we want to go back to a world without choices, but it had compensations.
Do the PB Sports-Loving Sky Refuseniks also refuse to watch Sky Sports at their friends' houses and in the pub?
Or is it just screening it in their own homes they object to?
I took my Dad to a sports bar showing one of the 2019 Ashes Test matches for an agreeably boozy lunch after a morning walk along the Water of Leith, once, yes.
Apparently humans are also inconsistent. Surprise!
We have established your irrationality and inconsistency now, for which I thank you.
I find the whole thing Sky Sports Refuse-ism bizarre – but it is undoubtably A Thing. And there are millions like you. You are not at all unusual in this regard.
Why bizarre?
Some people really dislike the legacy of Murdoch in general.
Some dislike what the Big Money has done to football in particular.
Some refuse to pay what they see as rip off prices.
Some, like me, don’t watch football.
If you don't like football/sport in general than it's perfectly rational not to subscribe to Sky.
If you do like sport then Comcast (not Murdoch) owned Sky Sports is pretty much essential.
I don't like what Big Money has done to football either –– but that's a wider issue that includes state-owned clubs etc not just Sky.
£30/month to indulge a passion/hobby is peanuts.
My Warhammer budget is only €20 a month at the moment, and I haven't been keeping track of how much money I'm spending driving to trailheads. £30 a month is quite a lot of money for many people.
I took this photo from the top of one Irish Hump recently. Quiz questions: 1. Where was I? 2. What is it a photo of? 3. Which moderately famous person lives in the field of view (and would be a better election night host)?
Is it Macca who lives in the view?
No. But if he did I'd have photoshopped the house out, obvs.
On the question of who really began reality TV worldwide, I have fairly good experience of that, as I was working in UK TV at the time.
It was in the late '90s, not coincidentally just after British TV had been consciously re-orientated towards the commercial, that formats like Chsnging Rooms started getting exported from Britain, worldwide. Culture and intellectual were out, highly internationally lucrative lifestyle and reality franchises were in.
Scots poll KLAXON GE Voting intention (Scotland) (changes vs Ipsos Jan 2024 poll) · SNP: 36% (-3) · Labour: 36% (+4) · Conservatives: 13% (-1) · Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1) · Reform UK: 4% (+1) · Scottish Green Party: 3% (-1) · Alba Party: 1% (unchanged) · Other: 1% (+1)
3 to 9 June
Textbook usage of the klaxon there. Credit where it is due.
51/49 split in favour of independence, down from a 3% lead. In the midst of a UK election campaign where the the SNP refuse to talk about it, that's a decent result.
Also given the same poll has the SNP losing its majority of Scottish MPs and 2026 will also likely see a Unionist majority at Holyrood that would kill of any prospect of indyref2 for a generation, making such polls largely redundant anyway
You must be the only poster to think Starmer's honeymoon will last that long. While you have your crystal ball, can I have tonoght's lottery numbers?
They were literally chanting - ‘We will find the Jews. We want their blood’- and the police did nothing. The govt has done nothing. It is hard to know how to react. Has the British state simply given up on Jews living peacefully in the UK? (Note – it won’t end with the Jews, it never does). And if not, what will be the trigger for action? How much worse must things get?"
Does anyone else think there's basically nothing left for the Tories to be able to meaningfully increase their vote share from here?
We've had all the big announcements. It's not really appealing to anyone. It seems like the only way it can go from here is down, especially if Rishi keeps making gaffes.
There appears to have been a big pivot to 'Don't give Keir a supermajority!' in the last 24 hours. I don't know effective this will be. They are waving the White Flag, whereas from the other 3 non-Labour parties:
Davey can say "Vote for me, former Tories, and I'll be your sensible LOTO"
Farage has already been saying "Keir Starmer is going to be PM" and repeating that "I have a 5 year plan to be the new real opposition."
The Greens can attract much more of a 'noble' protest vote if the election already feels like a foregone - attracting votes from discontented Labour voters, too.
And all of the above are helped by the fact that 'Keir Starmer will be PM!' just isn't scaring a lot of the non-Labour vote like Corbyn or even the threats of Miliband/Sturgeon 'coalition of chaos' did.
I think what will be decisive, is how much the tactical vote message cuts through. It might even be in the mutual interest of the Lib Dems, ReformUK AND the Greens to all use the 'Keir Starmer is going to be PM' line and see if the combined effect turns people away from CON/LAB like never before.
If the message that 'The Tories have lost anyway' gets real cut through then we might see some weird things happen on election day.
Two things.
One. The manifesto is still the point at which Labour can blow it. So it's not all over yet.
Two. I think your latter points are why it's important that Labour uses the manifesto to pivot from a negative message about how awful the Tories have been to an optimistic message about how Labour will start to put things right, as @TimS has argued.
That then gives people something to vote for, specifically a reason to vote Labour, as opposed to Lib Dem/Reform/Green.
I don't know if Starmer can pull the pivot off. I'm not sure if his emotional register includes optimism. If he did, though, it really would boost Labour towards the top-end of the current forecasts.
It's not over until the Big Ben bongs and Clive Myrie and Laura Kuenssberg sing SJC's exit poll.
With a full ballot prompt, we are seeing the initial effects of tactical voting. Asked the direct question. a plurality say they would"
"Would you or would you not vote for a party that was not your first choice in order to stop a party that you dislike from winning?"
Would - 45% Would not - 43% Don’t know - 12%
45% are prepared to vote for a party which is not their first choice, if it meant denying a party they did not like from winning. We see evidence of this in the voting intention figures too, where 38% of 2019 Lib Dem voters say they intend to vote Labour, as do 9% of Green voters. 6% of Labour 2019 voters say they will vote Green, 5% for the Lib Dems.
It’s time to talk TV (tactical vote, not vests for tarantula’s)
I tried it last night, and intelligent PBers Ben Farooq just took the piss. But as a betting site, the impact of TV on both seats and eventual proportional of vote (PV) once all votes counted, can be huge.
TV normally happens when you are best placed to get the Tory out.
Labour are the biggest TV winners. Any bet on them getting less than 43% PV is a wasted bet once you factor in TV. Labour will get TV from Lib Dem’s, Greens and Reform. Lib Dem’s can get up to 15% PV or more with TV from Labour and the Greens. Greens get TV from no one. They get squeezed. Tories might get a bit of TV from Labour in Scotland? more than Labour get TV from the Tories in Scotland?
I understand your point now you've defined what the abbreviations mean. TV I guessed. PV was a mystery to me.
Point of order: it's well established that I'm a mid-wattage Dundee bedsit wanker who stares at bollards all day. Calling me intelligent, like me, doesn't wash.
Point of order refused. It’s well established fact in PB, anyone who describes their life in such detail is making it all up. You are in fact an Oxbridge educated high class hooker, who lives in Belgravia and works under the name of Lexie.
Sorry for doxing you. Miss.
Close enough
So close he has visited Belgravia I think
Of course. Where I used to live it was 10 minute walk away!
Been following all your posts Malc. You are very conservative in your values and outlook arn’t you?
I am indeed, A conservative with a heart, with no time for lazy slackers , selfish gits and ne'er do wells.
So do you have a Scottish Nationalist party for people with Conservative instincts and outlook?
The one in coalition with those Greens certainly couldn’t have been, could it?
Unfortunately not at present. SNP are very poor jsut now, so little choice. Unless Alba or IPS have a candidate I will not vote.
Afternoons? You want to know what to do in the afternoons? Ah, my friend, afternoons are for sitting on Deribasovskaya street, like Pushkin and Babel, like Nabokov and Nijinsky, like Akhmatova and Gogol and Eisenstein, and sipping a Ten Spritz, in the sunlight gently filtering through the poplars, as you listen to the talk of war, and love, and war
Or go down Spoons for a glass of the very authentic, Spanish beer, Madri.
Hello Taz, It is pleasant if nice and cold, but if in Spoons you want a nice craft ale.
Afternoons? You want to know what to do in the afternoons? Ah, my friend, afternoons are for sitting on Deribasovskaya street, like Pushkin and Babel, like Nabokov and Nijinsky, like Akhmatova and Gogol and Eisenstein, and sipping a Ten Spritz, in the sunlight gently filtering through the poplars, as you listen to the talk of war, and love, and war
what a lightweight, be as well with a campari and soda and a handbag.
No they aren’t. And you posted seat numbers. I’m not sure where you have gone wrong but you’re in a right royal muddle on this one.
A reminder that Survation gave:
Cons 23% Labour 41% LibDems 10% Reform 12% Greens 6% SNP 3%
Which would lead roughly to:
Conservative 102 Labour 458 Liberal Democrats 46 Green 2 SNP 14 Reform 3
p.s. I can’t quite work out which table you’ve mis-applied @bigjohnowls but you’ve gone wrong somewhere in that data set. I mean, spotting 19 Green and 81 LibDems MPs in 2019 should make you see that?
ITS NOT MPS ITS RESPONDENTS STOP CONFIRMING YOU ARE AN IDIOT WHO CANT READ DATA TABLES
Comments
The real story is the stunning decline in the quality of the BBC and perhaps to Channel 4.
To take one example, a great documentary from the BBC is now astonishingly rare. The last one I can think of was “Once Upon a Time in Northern Ireland”.
The quality of political coverage is at an all time low, too.
GB Shaw: “The single biggest problem with communication is the illusion that it has taken place.”
So, how many times are you going to avoid the biggest question PB can ask you - will Greens get 4 or more at the Genny, or less than 4?
It's well within the realm of possibility that the Conservatives get 30% vote share from a combination of complacency from Labour voters and futility from Reform and Green voters. A very low turnout scenario. The 20% for the Tories aren't going anywhere at this stage - this really is the floor I think, particularly after D-Day and Farage.
That's not to say they win more than 100 seats. They might still be horribly punished by FPTP and tactical voting.
The reporting of the details and facts is not that important.
Oh and the ongoing search for Ed Davey last seen off Lands End on an inflatable unicorn after highlighting the small boats policy.
Even though I was 100% correct with my raw dara post and Heathener completely misunderstood it ans was 0% correct with his responses he got more likes so there we have it.
Hold your heads in shame Sandpit, MoonRabbit, Et Al
A couple of posters like TSE, WollieDyed and Biggles 100% understood the point i was making ie that although Lab leads there were a lot of undecideds.
PB is not what it used to be but i suppose betting against people who dont understand things can be a profitable business
I think a modest rise in Tory fortunes is likely from here.
Scottish Independence should be looking to compete directly with Lab, Con, LibDem, unionist parties, with a Scottish National equivalent of them - otherwise furthering independence will just go up and down on a cycle of popularity. Falling into the trap devolution is supposed to be?
I took this photo from the top of one Irish Hump recently.
1. Where was I?
2. What is it a photo of?
3. Which moderately famous person lives in the field of view (and would be a better election night host)?
0/10 see me
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv221jple3jo
I doubt we want to go back to a world without choices, but it had compensations.
It was in the late '90s, not coincidentally just after British TV had been consciously re-orientated towards the commercial, that formats like Chsnging Rooms started getting exported from Britain, worldwide. Culture and intellectual were out, highly internationally lucrative lifestyle and reality franchises were in.
Would you reconsider your decision?