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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP is taking far more votes away from the Tories than any

SystemSystem Posts: 11,698
edited March 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP is taking far more votes away from the Tories than any other party

A bit of a narrative seems developing about the rise of UKIP which is said to hurting Labour more than the Tories. This is based on studies showing that white, working class men who finished their education at secondary school are being disproportionately attracted to Farage’s party.

Read the full story here


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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    The first shall be last
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,735
    It seems likely from the above that if UKIP fade then the Tories will gain most - but this isn't actually known. Without any further breakdown, it might be the case that all those 2010 Tory voters are Tory/Lab swing voters, who in the absence of UKIP break to Labour.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052
    The Faragistas are on balance probably good for Labour. For now.

    They'll get a boost from the Clegg debate because a) it gives them a profile b) they can articulate their populist anti-EU message and c) they'll be socking it to Nick Clegg.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052
    I'm seriously worried that some people will vote Ukip in the Euros just to annoy Nick Clegg. Remember the AV campaign. Turn it into a referendum on Clegg.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Lennon said:

    It seems likely from the above that if UKIP fade then the Tories will gain most - but this isn't actually known. Without any further breakdown, it might be the case that all those 2010 Tory voters are Tory/Lab swing voters, who in the absence of UKIP break to Labour.

    Mark Pack suggested that the local election results support that theory.

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/47012/how-ukip-is-damaging-labour-reprised/
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2014
    Interesting to see UKIP are getting 17% from the LDs as opposed to 8% from Labour, not what one would have expected.
  • Options

    Lennon said:

    It seems likely from the above that if UKIP fade then the Tories will gain most - but this isn't actually known. Without any further breakdown, it might be the case that all those 2010 Tory voters are Tory/Lab swing voters, who in the absence of UKIP break to Labour.

    Mark Pack suggested that the local election results support that theory.

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/47012/how-ukip-is-damaging-labour-reprised/
    Indeed, given both the Tories between 1992 and 1997 and Labour between 1997 and 2010 lost well over 4 million votes it would suggest there is a very significant pool of swing voters with no allegiance to any particular party.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to see UKIP are getting 17% from the LDs as opposed to 8% from Labour, not what one would have expected.

    Similar demographic? Both White, Middle Class and Middle Aged.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to see UKIP are getting 17% from the LDs as opposed to 8% from Labour, not what one would have expected.

    Part of the Lib Dem support was always a protest vote.

    According to the Guardian article 8/10 of the seats with highest Ukip support are Labour. This does ring true in a way. The support is coming disproportionately from Tory voters in what are largely Labour areas. However that's not so bad for Dave. If the Tory vote collapses in Doncaster it won't make a blind bit of difference.

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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,359
    Yes, you can often predict when someone's going to be UKIP as he opens the door - canvass records something like 2010 abstain or Con; 2005 Con 2001 abstain 1997 Lab, Daily Mail or Express in the porch, often affable-aggressive (but not usually nasty). Marked gender gap - a couple where the wife is UKIP and the husband isn't is very rare, but not vice versa. I agree we wouldn't get them back even if UKIP faded, but most would just abstain IMO.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to see UKIP are getting 17% from the LDs as opposed to 8% from Labour, not what one would have expected.

    Similar demographic? Both White, Middle Class and Middle Aged.
    Or just protest votes who don't like the government. Any government.
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to see UKIP are getting 17% from the LDs as opposed to 8% from Labour, not what one would have expected.

    one segment are great trekkers
    Lab -> Lib -> Con -> Ukip

    another segment are economic swing voters who the LDs had especially up north
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to see UKIP are getting 17% from the LDs as opposed to 8% from Labour, not what one would have expected.

    Similar demographic? Both White, Middle Class and Middle Aged.
    Or just protest votes who don't like the government. Any government.
    And don't want to be in government. Any government. That would explain the shift from the LD's.

    I suspect they both favour garish, striped blazers too.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    This is a perhaps unsurprising finding. However, its importance depends on where the voters are coming from. Safe and no-hope seats don't matter nearly so much as marginals.
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    NextNext Posts: 826
    GCSE English: Low grades shock for Wales in January exams

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-26464441
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to see UKIP are getting 17% from the LDs as opposed to 8% from Labour, not what one would have expected.

    Similar demographic? Both White, Middle Class and Middle Aged.
    Or just protest votes who don't like the government. Any government.
    And don't want to be in government. Any government. That would explain the shift from the LD's.

    I suspect they both favour garish, striped blazers too.

    Like this one?
    http://www.google.com/imgres?biw=1350&bih=887&tbm=isch&tbnid=jmgyvow80Qrg4M:&imgrefurl=http://chapman.dailymail.co.uk/2013/06/&docid=Q0loPQ3UacFOYM&imgurl=http://anmblog.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c565553ef0192aba25169970d-pi&w=2113&h=1488&ei=aosYU-LgJYiBywPamIGQDw&zoom=1&iact=rc&dur=563&page=1&start=0&ndsp=28&ved=0CFUQrQMwAQ

    (It's not actually the photo I was looking for - which has them all clustered in a garden somewhere - but will have to do)
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting to see UKIP are getting 17% from the LDs as opposed to 8% from Labour, not what one would have expected.

    Similar demographic? Both White, Middle Class and Middle Aged.
    Or just protest votes who don't like the government. Any government.
    And don't want to be in government. Any government. That would explain the shift from the LD's.

    I suspect they both favour garish, striped blazers too.

    Like this one?
    http://www.google.com/imgres?biw=1350&bih=887&tbm=isch&tbnid=jmgyvow80Qrg4M:&imgrefurl=http://chapman.dailymail.co.uk/2013/06/&docid=Q0loPQ3UacFOYM&imgurl=http://anmblog.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c565553ef0192aba25169970d-pi&w=2113&h=1488&ei=aosYU-LgJYiBywPamIGQDw&zoom=1&iact=rc&dur=563&page=1&start=0&ndsp=28&ved=0CFUQrQMwAQ

    (It's not actually the photo I was looking for - which has them all clustered in a garden somewhere - but will have to do)
    Just like that! Almost as natty a dresser as Neil Hamilton. Sums up UKIP to a T, that one.

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    GCSE English: Low grades shock for Wales in January exams

    The desperate state of Welsh education and NHS services after decades of labour is going to be front and centre next year.

    What is Ed doing here?? These are central plank labour issues.

    The tories are going to hang Wales around Ed's neck like a dead albatross.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,393
    edited March 2014

    Yes, you can often predict when someone's going to be UKIP as he opens the door - canvass records something like 2010 abstain or Con; 2005 Con 2001 abstain 1997 Lab, Daily Mail or Express in the porch, often affable-aggressive (but not usually nasty). Marked gender gap - a couple where the wife is UKIP and the husband isn't is very rare, but not vice versa. I agree we wouldn't get them back even if UKIP faded, but most would just abstain IMO.

    Yep. You're describing pretty much the way I visualise @Sam.

    Oh but wait...he's a young ex-Labour supporter.

    Oh well.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Taffys, perhaps they ought to, but they haven't yet.

    Reports on the news about Wales (often regarding ambulance-related woe) tend to refer to the Welsh Government (if they bother to point out it's devolved at all) and rarely does Labour really get mentioned.

    It takes time for ideas to diffuse from the politicians to the public, and they may well end up leaving it too late.
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    CCHQ are asleep when it comes to pointing at Wales.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    F1: after seizing control of McLaren, Darth Dennis proclaims that downforce is insignificant compared to the power of a Mercedes engine (I paraphrase):
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26467140
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060
    I dunno, I go away for a few days, and when I come back everyone's being civil to one another.

    Perhaps I should go away more often... ? ;-)
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    I dunno, I go away for a few days, and when I come back everyone's being civil to one another.

    Perhaps I should go away more often... ? ;-)

    You missed the events of yesterday then?
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited March 2014
    ''It takes time for ideas to diffuse from the politicians to the public, and they may well end up leaving it too late. ''

    Yes its curious, but Jeremy Hunt is increasing the pressure (partly because Welsh people in border towns are, incredibly, coming to the Tory run English NHS for better treatment).

    Plus, of course the tories have MPs in Wales, so they have to tread a bit carefully.

    Could the tories run election adverts in England like 'for the low down on services under labour....go to Wales....'

    It would be risky I guess.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Jessop, don't forget to check the last pre-season F1 article, which is now literally festooned with comments:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/f1-2014-second-and-third-tests.html

    Early forecasts suggest rain is possible for Australia. Normally I like rain, but it'd be good to have a wholly dry weekend so we can get as clear a picture as possible for the pecking order.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Doesn't this data just reinforce the idea that UKIP hurting Labour as much if not more than the Tories is just wishful thinking?
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    Doesn't this data just reinforce the idea that UKIP hurting Labour as much if not more than the Tories is just wishful thinking?

    I think it's more the explanation for why Lab isn't miles ahead. They were down to core and may be up a bit on that but the swing voters aren't swinging like they used to.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060

    I dunno, I go away for a few days, and when I come back everyone's being civil to one another.

    Perhaps I should go away more often... ? ;-)

    You missed the events of yesterday then?
    What events?

    Early yesterday morning I was out with my sister as she zeroed her hunting rifle somewhere near Cannock Chase. Very interesting, and she's a far better shot than I ever was.

    The meetings I had later in the day seemed rather tame in comparison. ;-)
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    CCHQ are asleep when it comes to pointing at Wales.

    So, to be honest, are the media. The conservative leadership are probably afraid that criticising Wales' government will be seen as a criticism of the Welsh people themselves. Cameron is very patrician like that, and would not want to do it.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711

    F1: after seizing control of McLaren, Darth Dennis proclaims that downforce is insignificant compared to the power of a Mercedes engine (I paraphrase):
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26467140

    Ron Dennis seems to me to be the poster boy for 'someone who doesn't suffer fools gladly'...
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2014
    The Good News fights through the floods

    The first of big monthly Retail Sales reports, The Visa Europe UK Consumer Expenditure Index compiled by Markit and based on aggregate spending on consumer Visa debit and credit cards, was published this morning.

    The overall story is that the rain dampened sales in February but underlying trends remain positive.

    Headline findings:

    • Year-on-year household expenditure rose slightly in February (+0.3%), following a solid increase on the year in January (+1.5%).

    • Month-on-month spending fell marginally in February (-0.4%), following the quickest monthly increase in expenditure since September 2012 in January (+1.8%).

    • Quarterly spending figures signalled that underlying expenditure fell slightly in February (-0.5%), after no change in January (+0.0%).

    • Non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year expenditure rose solidly through Online spending channels (+4.3%), but declined slightly through Face-to-Face and Mail/Telephone Order categories (-0.9% and -0.8%, respectively).
    =================================================================
    Visa Europe UK Consumer Expenditure Index
    February 2014 Summary Table
    -----------------------------------------------------------------
    2014
    Feb Jan Dec
    Overall Spending Annual SA +0.3% +1.5% +0.8%
    Overall Spending 3m/3m SA -0.5% +0.0% +0.2%
    Overall Spending Monthly SA -0.4% +1.8% -1.8%

    Face-to-Face Spending Annual NSA -0.9% +1.5% -1.9%
    Online Spending Annual NSA +4.3% +4.8% +6.8%
    Mail/Telephone Order (MOTO) Annual NSA -0.8% +1.3% +0.4%
    =================================================================

    Jeremy Nicholds, Director of Commercial Development at Visa Europe said:

    “February’s wet weather put a mild dampener on consumer purchases but wasn’t enough to halt the continued spending recovery in the UK. This month was the fifth in a row to show an improvement in year-on-year spending and while there was a decline from January on a month-by-month basis, this is less significant than the longer term upward trend. As the weather improves, this upward momentum should be sustained in the coming months as well.

    Sectors enjoying a good month were the housing market linked Household Goods (up 4.3%), indoor non-rain affected Online Purchases (also up 4.3%) and PB Londoners affected Hotel and Restaurants (up 7.1%). All annual figures.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    I dunno, I go away for a few days, and when I come back everyone's being civil to one another.

    Perhaps I should go away more often... ? ;-)

    You missed the events of yesterday then?
    What events?

    Early yesterday morning I was out with my sister as she zeroed her hunting rifle somewhere near Cannock Chase. Very interesting, and she's a far better shot than I ever was.

    The meetings I had later in the day seemed rather tame in comparison. ;-)
    iSam was smote by the ban-hammer...
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    edited March 2014
    AveryLP said:




    Online Spending Annual NSA +4.3% +4.8% +6.8%

    Another big rise in online spending...

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060

    I dunno, I go away for a few days, and when I come back everyone's being civil to one another.

    Perhaps I should go away more often... ? ;-)

    You missed the events of yesterday then?
    What events?

    Early yesterday morning I was out with my sister as she zeroed her hunting rifle somewhere near Cannock Chase. Very interesting, and she's a far better shot than I ever was.

    The meetings I had later in the day seemed rather tame in comparison. ;-)
    iSam was smote by the ban-hammer...
    Ah, that's a shame. We often didn't see eye to eye, but he often make good points.

    Things always seem to kick off when I'm away doing something else.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,377

    I dunno, I go away for a few days, and when I come back everyone's being civil to one another.

    Perhaps I should go away more often... ? ;-)

    You missed the events of yesterday then?
    What events?

    Early yesterday morning I was out with my sister as she zeroed her hunting rifle somewhere near Cannock Chase. Very interesting, and she's a far better shot than I ever was.

    The meetings I had later in the day seemed rather tame in comparison. ;-)
    iSam was smote by the ban-hammer...
    "iSam strayed from the path and the Lord OGH smote him good."
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    SeanT said:

    I submit that the Nats are making good steady progress having eaten away 0.25 of the No lead in a mere two and a quarter years, and should expect to achieve independence around the time the universe is extinguished by heat death.

    Come, Mr. Knox, you overstate your case.

    The Nats need to move about another 16 points to be sure of being decently clearly ahead (allowing for eg GOTV etc).

    That is 64 quarter-point intervals at a rate of one such per two years. They've got not so much the "big mo" as the "slo mo".

    On that basis Scottish independence will be here in a mere 128 years.

    Wee Eck's time will thus come in about 2142, in nice time to begin preparations for the 400th anniversary of the '45 and for malcolmg - who will still be here and still be angry - to be moaning about how the dilithium crystals are in Scottish Planck subspace.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,377
    Will the UKraine Independence Party win any votes in Crimea?
    :)
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Interesting thing about that report was fusion being taken seriously in a news report. I think that's a first - at least to my recollection.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "Andrew Bridgen MP is proposing an amendment to the Deregulation Bill to shift the BBC licence fee from a criminal matter to a civil matter like any other household bill."

    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2014/02/28/decriminalise-the-bbc-licence-fee/

    http://www.andrewbridgen.com/content/andrew-bridgen-calls-decriminalisation-nonpayment-tv-licence

    Lord Pearson has pushed this in the HoL in the past. Nice to see the proposal being pushed by an MP too.

    https://www.ukip.org/newsroom/news/842-ukip-call-for-bbc-non-payment-to-be-made-a-civil-not-criminal-offence
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    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    JackW said:

    The first shall be last

    You really should have been an Archbishop Jack, probably more Wishart than Sharp.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,377

    "Andrew Bridgen MP is proposing an amendment to the Deregulation Bill to shift the BBC licence fee from a criminal matter to a civil matter like any other household bill."

    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2014/02/28/decriminalise-the-bbc-licence-fee/

    http://www.andrewbridgen.com/content/andrew-bridgen-calls-decriminalisation-nonpayment-tv-licence

    Lord Pearson has pushed this in the HoL in the past. Nice to see the proposal being pushed by an MP too.

    https://www.ukip.org/newsroom/news/842-ukip-call-for-bbc-non-payment-to-be-made-a-civil-not-criminal-offence

    Licence Fee = TV Poll Tax.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    MrJones said:

    Interesting thing about that report was fusion being taken seriously in a news report. I think that's a first - at least to my recollection.
    The Register report on fusion quite a lot, but it is a techie site.


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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited March 2014

    JackW said:

    The first shall be last

    You really should have been an Archbishop Jack, probably more Wishart than Sharp.
    Hang on, you Scots don't have bishops! Not only did we go to war over the point once but it also featured in a Flanders and Swan song.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060
    MrJones said:

    Interesting thing about that report was fusion being taken seriously in a news report. I think that's a first - at least to my recollection.
    It's a Farnsworth fusor, and about as far as you can get from practical net-power fusion (at least as far as we know). Lots of people play about with these things.

    Still good stuff though, and way cool.
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    edited March 2014

    MrJones said:

    Interesting thing about that report was fusion being taken seriously in a news report. I think that's a first - at least to my recollection.
    The Register report on fusion quite a lot, but it is a techie site.


    Yeah i mean mainstream media. Probably nothing but maybe a straw in the wind.

    edit: the last i read about fusion in the mainstream media was 20 years ago (?) or something like that and all negative.
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    NextNext Posts: 826
    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Interesting thing about that report was fusion being taken seriously in a news report. I think that's a first - at least to my recollection.
    The Register report on fusion quite a lot, but it is a techie site.


    Yeah i mean mainstream media. Probably nothing but maybe a straw in the wind.

    edit: the last i read about fusion in the mainstream media was 20 years ago (?) or something like that and all negative.
    What about ITER ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23595133

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited March 2014
    @BJB - "On that basis Scottish independence will be here in a mere 128 years."

    I just knew a PB pedant wouldn’t let SeanT’s comment go unchallenged – well done, Sir. ; )
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Reprising the corp tax stuff from earlier...
    This little piece is about Apple, but really could cover a lot of companies:
    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/03/06/cupertino_skipping_beelions_in_tax_report/

    Not so much as a loop-hole as a huge gaping vortex.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,045

    JackW said:

    The first shall be last

    You really should have been an Archbishop Jack, probably more Wishart than Sharp.
    Hang on, you Scots don't have bishops! Not only did we go to war over the point once but it also featured in a Flanders and Swan song.

    Catholic ones? OK for a Jacobite.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    specially for Carlotta...........
    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-bully-pulpit/
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,436
    Another interesting blog on http://election-data.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/a-coalition-of-despised-part-one.html

    Perhaps JackW can assist us in understanding where the young living in older terraces might be in Harpenden and Hitchen? Not West Common?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    @BJB - "On that basis Scottish independence will be here in a mere 128 years."

    I just knew a PB pedant wouldn’t let SeanT’s comment go unchallenged – well done, Sir. ; )

    Not necessarily. Perhaps climate change will accelerate the heat death of the universe?
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Next said:

    MrJones said:

    MrJones said:

    Interesting thing about that report was fusion being taken seriously in a news report. I think that's a first - at least to my recollection.
    The Register report on fusion quite a lot, but it is a techie site.


    Yeah i mean mainstream media. Probably nothing but maybe a straw in the wind.

    edit: the last i read about fusion in the mainstream media was 20 years ago (?) or something like that and all negative.
    What about ITER ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23595133

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER
    seems i missed a few
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2014
    Three snippets of news from ITAR-TASS for the Kremlinologists amongst us.

    1. The Ukraine has paid its January Gazprom gas bill of $658.4 million. There was no additional discount provided for paying by American Express card and Eurocheque. Putin reaffirmed that the 33% discount agreed for current supplies will end in April. The Ukraine's outstanding debt to Russia reduces to $1.3 billion which excludes the upcoming February gas bill of $400 million.

    2. Greenpeace have filed a request for the release of Arctic Sunrise, their ship confiscated during last September's attempted boarding of a Russian oil rig in the Arctic. No indication on how Russia will respond but Greenpeace may get lucky from the Ukrainian crisis if Putin decides the world needs to see evidence of his feminine side.

    3. Inflation in the Ukraine leapt to 0.6% for the month of February. This is about equivalent to the current average annual inflation rate in the Eurozone. No wonder Angela Merkel is reluctant to get too heavily involved in picking up the pieces of the Ukrainian economy.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Charles said:

    @BJB - "On that basis Scottish independence will be here in a mere 128 years."

    I just knew a PB pedant wouldn’t let SeanT’s comment go unchallenged – well done, Sir. ; )

    Not necessarily. Perhaps climate change will accelerate the heat death of the universe?
    This assumes a linear fall in the difference, but SeanT did not say that.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    malcolmg said:

    specially for Carlotta...........
    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-bully-pulpit/

    I enjoyed it at the time - unmasking The Wyfe of Bath from Wings over Scotland Somerset!

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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Has Isam been binned?
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    JackW said:

    The first shall be last

    You really should have been an Archbishop Jack, probably more Wishart than Sharp.
    Hang on, you Scots don't have bishops! Not only did we go to war over the point once but it also featured in a Flanders and Swan song.

    Catholic ones? OK for a Jacobite.

    Fair go, Mr. Cole I was forgetting about the Papists. Old Jack might get away with his Jacobite tendencies, but surely not Mr. Easterross.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    especially for malcolmg.....

    Brian Monteith eschews the usual proprietaries over intruding into the private grief of others - in this case, Labour in Scotland:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2014/03/brian-monteith-now-its-labours-turn-to-take-the-fight-to-the-nationalists.html
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    More Blue on Blue(this time from outside the party):

    Institute of Directors press release

    Commenting on the James Brokenshire’s speech on immigration this morning, Simon Walker, Director General of the Institute of Directors, said:

    “It is feeble and pathetic to hear yet more divisive language from politicians on immigration. The UK is an open, trading country that benefits from the skills and ideas of migrants. We will not become more prosperous by closing our borders to talented individuals and entrepreneurs from across the world. This speech seems to be more about political positioning and less about what is good for the country."
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785

    Has Isam been binned?

    He got into a Kellyesque scrap with the Mods <shall! shan't! shall! shan't! [MODERATED] told ya!) last night, so who knows......
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If isam has been ejected, I hope we shall see him back soon enough. He was a canny poster.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Has Isam been binned?

    He got into a Kellyesque scrap with the Mods
    What is it with the PB Hodges at the moment?
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Has Isam been binned?

    Apparently so, Mr. 2, I was not here to see it happen but it would appear he has been sent to the naughty step. We must not ask why nor are we allowed to ponder on the site about the fact that the old boy always seemed a decent sort. We must just take it that his transgressions were serious, if not manifold.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Has Isam been binned?

    Apparently so, Mr. 2, I was not here to see it happen but it would appear he has been sent to the naughty step. We must not ask why nor are we allowed to ponder on the site about the fact that the old boy always seemed a decent sort. We must just take it that his transgressions were serious, if not manifold.
    Them there are the rules....abide or be off.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060

    Has Isam been binned?

    He got into a Kellyesque scrap with the Mods
    What is it with the PB Hodges at the moment?
    Can you define 'PB Hodges'?
  • Options
    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited March 2014

    Has Isam been binned?

    He got into a Kellyesque scrap with the Mods
    What is it with the PB Hodges at the moment?
    Can you define 'PB Hodges'?
    Anyone I declare to be a PB Hodge.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Has Isam been binned?

    He got into a Kellyesque scrap with the Mods
    What is it with the PB Hodges at the moment?
    Mr. Compouter, you keep using this PB Hodges label and I haven't a clue what you mean. Could you perhaps explain and perhaps provide some examples?
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    More Blue on Blue(this time from outside the party):

    Institute of Directors press release

    Commenting on the James Brokenshire’s speech on immigration this morning, Simon Walker, Director General of the Institute of Directors, said:

    “It is feeble and pathetic to hear yet more divisive language from politicians on immigration. The UK is an open, trading country that benefits from the skills and ideas of migrants. We will not become more prosperous by closing our borders to talented individuals and entrepreneurs from across the world. This speech seems to be more about political positioning and less about what is good for the country."

    Walker is right. Those who seek to close down immigration need to be upfront about the fact that they will make us all poorer.
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    edited March 2014

    More Blue on Blue(this time from outside the party):

    Institute of Directors press release

    Commenting on the James Brokenshire’s speech on immigration this morning, Simon Walker, Director General of the Institute of Directors, said:

    “It is feeble and pathetic to hear yet more divisive language from politicians on immigration. The UK is an open, trading country that benefits from the skills and ideas of migrants. We will not become more prosperous by closing our borders to talented individuals and entrepreneurs from across the world. This speech seems to be more about political positioning and less about what is good for the country."

    Unrestrained immigration serves two self-interested groups:
    Businesses to get cheaper labour. They should try training up more of their fellow citizens and cease their short term attitude to investment in the UK.
    Labour Party to import more voters.
    As Marx(? ask millibean) said, give capitalists enough rope and they will hang themselves.
    As I say, give Labour enough rope and they will screw us all.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060
    HS2:

    Without meaning to bore anyone with civil engineering matters (*), a rail industry group has come up with a document outlining possible consequences if HS2 is not built.

    The source should be noted (they are pro-rail), and I do not agree with all of it. But the broad thrust seems right to me.

    (*) Yes, I know: "civil engineering: see boring"
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Has Isam been binned?

    He got into a Kellyesque scrap with the Mods
    What is it with the PB Hodges at the moment?
    Mr. Compouter, you keep using this PB Hodges label and I haven't a clue what you mean. Could you perhaps explain and perhaps provide some examples?
    A PB Hodge - Anyone I declare to be a PB Hodge and/or generally has right wing views(though it is not a necessity) . That is more or less it.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,393
    perdix said:

    More Blue on Blue(this time from outside the party):

    Institute of Directors press release

    Commenting on the James Brokenshire’s speech on immigration this morning, Simon Walker, Director General of the Institute of Directors, said:

    “It is feeble and pathetic to hear yet more divisive language from politicians on immigration. The UK is an open, trading country that benefits from the skills and ideas of migrants. We will not become more prosperous by closing our borders to talented individuals and entrepreneurs from across the world. This speech seems to be more about political positioning and less about what is good for the country."

    Unrestrained immigration serves two self-interested groups:
    Businesses to get cheaper labour.
    Labour Party to import more voters.
    As Marx(? ask millibean) said, give capitalists enough rope and they will hang themselves.
    As I say, give Labour enough rope and they will screw us all.

    As study after study has shown (although I appreciate this doesn't hold a candle to the bloke down your local pub), immigration unambiguously benefits the host nation for many reasons none of which I have time to go into here.

    It is a fantasy (and always was) that "they are taking our jobs".


  • Options
    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    BobaFett said:

    More Blue on Blue(this time from outside the party):

    Institute of Directors press release

    Commenting on the James Brokenshire’s speech on immigration this morning, Simon Walker, Director General of the Institute of Directors, said:

    “It is feeble and pathetic to hear yet more divisive language from politicians on immigration. The UK is an open, trading country that benefits from the skills and ideas of migrants. We will not become more prosperous by closing our borders to talented individuals and entrepreneurs from across the world. This speech seems to be more about political positioning and less about what is good for the country."

    Walker is right. Those who seek to close down immigration need to be upfront about the fact that they will make us all poorer.
    I love a bit of Blue on Blue, it is very entertaining.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    especially for malcolmg.....

    Brian Monteith eschews the usual proprietaries over intruding into the private grief of others - in this case, Labour in Scotland:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2014/03/brian-monteith-now-its-labours-turn-to-take-the-fight-to-the-nationalists.html

    That's a very good article indeed - well worth a read for what he says about the impact on Westminster.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,393

    Has Isam been binned?

    He got into a Kellyesque scrap with the Mods
    What is it with the PB Hodges at the moment?
    Mr. Compouter, you keep using this PB Hodges label and I haven't a clue what you mean. Could you perhaps explain and perhaps provide some examples?
    In his world view an ex-Labour=>Kipper switcher who brings betting expertise to a betting site is a PB Hodge.

    Beats me also.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Those who seek to close down immigration need to be upfront about the fact that they will make us all poorer.

    I wonder if the debate on immigration is shifting very slightly after we didn;t become a suburb of bucharest on January 01 2014. The Angela Merkel visit may have helped too and perhaps economic news is cooling tempers a bit.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060
    TOPPING said:

    perdix said:

    More Blue on Blue(this time from outside the party):

    Institute of Directors press release

    Commenting on the James Brokenshire’s speech on immigration this morning, Simon Walker, Director General of the Institute of Directors, said:

    “It is feeble and pathetic to hear yet more divisive language from politicians on immigration. The UK is an open, trading country that benefits from the skills and ideas of migrants. We will not become more prosperous by closing our borders to talented individuals and entrepreneurs from across the world. This speech seems to be more about political positioning and less about what is good for the country."

    Unrestrained immigration serves two self-interested groups:
    Businesses to get cheaper labour.
    Labour Party to import more voters.
    As Marx(? ask millibean) said, give capitalists enough rope and they will hang themselves.
    As I say, give Labour enough rope and they will screw us all.

    As study after study has shown (although I appreciate this doesn't hold a candle to the bloke down your local pub), immigration unambiguously benefits the host nation for many reasons none of which I have time to go into here.

    It is a fantasy (and always was) that "they are taking our jobs".
    Time for my obligatory link tothe following warning: possibly NSFW):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=768h3Tz4Qik
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Obviously a matter of opinion. Are you Team Boris or Team Gideon? Though there there is a choice of Team Gove, Team May and Team Grayling. Also, why does no one ever mention anyone in Team Cameron? I'm with Team Boris....Go Bojo!
  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    perdix said:

    More Blue on Blue(this time from outside the party):

    Institute of Directors press release

    Commenting on the James Brokenshire’s speech on immigration this morning, Simon Walker, Director General of the Institute of Directors, said:

    “It is feeble and pathetic to hear yet more divisive language from politicians on immigration. The UK is an open, trading country that benefits from the skills and ideas of migrants. We will not become more prosperous by closing our borders to talented individuals and entrepreneurs from across the world. This speech seems to be more about political positioning and less about what is good for the country."

    Unrestrained immigration serves two self-interested groups:
    Businesses to get cheaper labour. They should try training up more of their fellow citizens and cease their short term attitude to investment in the UK.
    Labour Party to import more voters.
    As Marx(? ask millibean) said, give capitalists enough rope and they will hang themselves.
    As I say, give Labour enough rope and they will screw us all.

    Would you avoid hiring an immigrant even if they were the best person for the job?
  • Options
    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915

    JackW said:

    The first shall be last

    You really should have been an Archbishop Jack, probably more Wishart than Sharp.
    Hang on, you Scots don't have bishops! Not only did we go to war over the point once but it also featured in a Flanders and Swan song.

    We do indeed have Bishops. The Jacobites were almost exclusively either Episcopalian or Roman Catholic. We have 6 Episcopalian Bishops in Scotland, one of whom acts as Primus since for some reason they wont appoint an Archbishop. We have 2 Roman Catholic Archbishops, Glasgow and Edinburgh and St Andrews. The elevation to the red cap of Cardinal traditionally flips back and forward between the two so with the now disgraced Cardinal O'Brien of Edinburgh and St Andrews having stepped aside, the Archbishop of Glasgow would expect to be the next Scottish Cardinal. We also have loads of RC Bishops given the huge proportion of Central Scotland population of Irish Catholic extraction.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060

    Obviously a matter of opinion. Are you Team Boris or Team Gideon? Though there there is a choice of Team Gove, Team May and Team Grayling. Also, why does no one ever mention anyone in Team Cameron? I'm with Team Boris....Go Bojo!
    Instead of obsessing about Conservative personalities (*), why not actually say something positive about the Labour Party and its policies? Or are you just another anti-Conservative person?

    Awaits the silence ...

    (*) Yes, I know I'm guilty of this at times as well.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,377

    Has Isam been binned?

    He got into a Kellyesque scrap with the Mods
    What is it with the PB Hodges at the moment?
    Can you define 'PB Hodges'?
    The Air Raid Warden in Dad's Army??
  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Not a fair match up @RichardN. Alexander is giving away about four inches and three stone to the Eurosceptic Balls, who strikes me as something of a bruiser.
  • Options
    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Obviously a matter of opinion. Are you Team Boris or Team Gideon? Though there there is a choice of Team Gove, Team May and Team Grayling. Also, why does no one ever mention anyone in Team Cameron? I'm with Team Boris....Go Bojo!
    Instead of obsessing about Conservative personalities (*), why not actually say something positive about the Labour Party and its policies? Or are you just another anti-Conservative person?

    Awaits the silence ...

    (*) Yes, I know I'm guilty of this at times as well.
    Labour don't have any policies, it's a blank piece of paper.....don't you read posts on PB? Oh, and Ed's crap.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,045
    edited March 2014
    On topic (do what???) if 13% of UKIP’s current vote comes from previous UKIP voters then they should win Thanet S by around 1200 votes, assuming no other transfers.
    And it doesn’t look good for the LD’s deposit, if one allows for the shift to Labour.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited March 2014
    Has this association disbanded, it has gone very very quiet recently.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/leftwatch/2012/01/launching-the-do-not-underestimate-labour-association.html

    Also the Do not underestimate/unseat Ed Miliband Association(D.U.E.M.A).....has this gone the same way?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited March 2014

    Another interesting blog on http://election-data.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/a-coalition-of-despised-part-one.html

    Perhaps JackW can assist us in understanding where the young living in older terraces might be in Harpenden and Hitchen? Not West Common?

    Not every property on West Common is a multi-million pounder like Flowton Priory presently on the market at a smidge under £9M.

    http://search.savills.com/content/assets/properties/gbhprshrs110351/HRS110351_HRS13000473.PDF

    There are one or two small two bedders around £400K that hit the mark but West Common generally isn't the place to go Ukip hunting. They're far too arriviste for Harpenden and especially the folk on the Common.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060

    Has Isam been binned?

    He got into a Kellyesque scrap with the Mods
    What is it with the PB Hodges at the moment?
    Can you define 'PB Hodges'?
    The Air Raid Warden in Dad's Army??
    Perhaps they're PB's branch of the coach outing association
    http://www.hodges-coaches.co.uk/

    I can't quite see JackW in that top picture ...
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820


    Obviously a matter of opinion. Are you Team Boris or Team Gideon? Though there there is a choice of Team Gove, Team May and Team Grayling. Also, why does no one ever mention anyone in Team Cameron? I'm with Team Boris....Go Bojo!

    It's all been rather boring compared with the last parliament. Gordon Brown plotting to dislodge Blair, and eventually succeeding, only for his henchmen to fall into civil war over the Election That Never Was; David Miliband repeatedly running up behind Brown's back and then running away again when Brown turned round; James Purnell going Over The Top, and finding that all those who had been cheering him on were inexplicably reluctant to follow him; Harriet Harman routinely on manoeuvres (she was favourite to be next Labour leader at one time!!!); Charles Clarke being Charles Clarke; Jack Straw being Delphically disloyal; and, most hilarious of all, the Snow Plot:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1331438/Harriet-traitor-How-Harman-led-plot-topple-Brown.html

    In comparison, Tory plots have been thin gruel indeed in this parliament.

  • Options
    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Has Isam been binned?

    He got into a Kellyesque scrap with the Mods
    What is it with the PB Hodges at the moment?
    Can you define 'PB Hodges'?
    The Air Raid Warden in Dad's Army??
    Perhaps they're PB's branch of the coach outing association
    http://www.hodges-coaches.co.uk/

    I can't quite see JackW in that top picture ...
    It seems to have been going for longer than I thought - http://records.ancestry.com/P_B_Hodges_records.ashx?pid=45511657
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    BobaFett said:

    Not a fair match up @RichardN. Alexander is giving away about four inches and three stone to the Eurosceptic Balls, who strikes me as something of a bruiser.

    True, but Scots are doughty little fighters.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,052
    perdix said:


    Labour Party to import more voters.

    EU immigrants don't get to vote in parliamentary elections, so it's not clear that supporting Polish plumbers right to work here does anything for Labour's electoral chances.

  • Options
    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Obviously a matter of opinion. Are you Team Boris or Team Gideon? Though there there is a choice of Team Gove, Team May and Team Grayling. Also, why does no one ever mention anyone in Team Cameron? I'm with Team Boris....Go Bojo!
    Instead of obsessing about Conservative personalities (*), why not actually say something positive about the Labour Party and its policies? Or are you just another anti-Conservative person?

    Awaits the silence ...

    (*) Yes, I know I'm guilty of this at times as well.
    Labour don't have any policies, it's a blank piece of paper.....don't you read posts on PB? Oh, and Ed's crap.
    Depends on what day it is. Labour either have no policies at all, or a detailed manifesto of dangerously Marxist measures, that would trigger nationwide blackouts and bring about a new Cold War.

    Take your pick.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    The first shall be last

    You really should have been an Archbishop Jack, probably more Wishart than Sharp.
    Hang on, you Scots don't have bishops! Not only did we go to war over the point once but it also featured in a Flanders and Swan song.

    Catholic ones? OK for a Jacobite.

    Fair go, Mr. Cole I was forgetting about the Papists. Old Jack might get away with his Jacobite tendencies, but surely not Mr. Easterross.
    Many Jacobites were not Catholics. Indeed the famous Jacobite general Viscount "Bonnie" Dundee was a strong Episcopalian.

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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    BobaFett said:

    Obviously a matter of opinion. Are you Team Boris or Team Gideon? Though there there is a choice of Team Gove, Team May and Team Grayling. Also, why does no one ever mention anyone in Team Cameron? I'm with Team Boris....Go Bojo!
    Instead of obsessing about Conservative personalities (*), why not actually say something positive about the Labour Party and its policies? Or are you just another anti-Conservative person?

    Awaits the silence ...

    (*) Yes, I know I'm guilty of this at times as well.
    Labour don't have any policies, it's a blank piece of paper.....don't you read posts on PB? Oh, and Ed's crap.
    Depends on what day it is. Labour either have no policies at all, or a detailed manifesto of dangerously Marxist measures, that would trigger nationwide blackouts and bring about a new Cold War.

    Take your pick.
    Very true.
  • Options


    Obviously a matter of opinion. Are you Team Boris or Team Gideon? Though there there is a choice of Team Gove, Team May and Team Grayling. Also, why does no one ever mention anyone in Team Cameron? I'm with Team Boris....Go Bojo!

    It's all been rather boring compared with the last parliament. Gordon Brown plotting to dislodge Blair, and eventually succeeding, only for his henchmen to fall into civil war over the Election That Never Was; David Miliband repeatedly running up behind Brown's back and then running away again when Brown turned round; James Purnell going Over The Top, and finding that all those who had been cheering him on were inexplicably reluctant to follow him; Harriet Harman routinely on manoeuvres (she was favourite to be next Labour leader at one time!!!); Charles Clarke being Charles Clarke; Jack Straw being Delphically disloyal; and, most hilarious of all, the Snow Plot:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1331438/Harriet-traitor-How-Harman-led-plot-topple-Brown.html

    In comparison, Tory plots have been thin gruel indeed in this parliament.

    Indeed that's the difference between a three term government and a one term government. The previous Tory government wasn't that dissimilar either.
This discussion has been closed.