A bit of a narrative seems developing about the rise of UKIP which is said to hurting Labour more than the Tories. This is based on studies showing that white, working class men who finished their education at secondary school are being disproportionately attracted to Farage’s party.
Comments
They'll get a boost from the Clegg debate because a) it gives them a profile b) they can articulate their populist anti-EU message and c) they'll be socking it to Nick Clegg.
http://www.markpack.org.uk/47012/how-ukip-is-damaging-labour-reprised/
According to the Guardian article 8/10 of the seats with highest Ukip support are Labour. This does ring true in a way. The support is coming disproportionately from Tory voters in what are largely Labour areas. However that's not so bad for Dave. If the Tory vote collapses in Doncaster it won't make a blind bit of difference.
Lab -> Lib -> Con -> Ukip
another segment are economic swing voters who the LDs had especially up north
I suspect they both favour garish, striped blazers too.
This is a perhaps unsurprising finding. However, its importance depends on where the voters are coming from. Safe and no-hope seats don't matter nearly so much as marginals.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-26464441
http://www.google.com/imgres?biw=1350&bih=887&tbm=isch&tbnid=jmgyvow80Qrg4M:&imgrefurl=http://chapman.dailymail.co.uk/2013/06/&docid=Q0loPQ3UacFOYM&imgurl=http://anmblog.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c565553ef0192aba25169970d-pi&w=2113&h=1488&ei=aosYU-LgJYiBywPamIGQDw&zoom=1&iact=rc&dur=563&page=1&start=0&ndsp=28&ved=0CFUQrQMwAQ
(It's not actually the photo I was looking for - which has them all clustered in a garden somewhere - but will have to do)
The desperate state of Welsh education and NHS services after decades of labour is going to be front and centre next year.
What is Ed doing here?? These are central plank labour issues.
The tories are going to hang Wales around Ed's neck like a dead albatross.
Oh but wait...he's a young ex-Labour supporter.
Oh well.
Reports on the news about Wales (often regarding ambulance-related woe) tend to refer to the Welsh Government (if they bother to point out it's devolved at all) and rarely does Labour really get mentioned.
It takes time for ideas to diffuse from the politicians to the public, and they may well end up leaving it too late.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26467140
Perhaps I should go away more often... ? ;-)
Yes its curious, but Jeremy Hunt is increasing the pressure (partly because Welsh people in border towns are, incredibly, coming to the Tory run English NHS for better treatment).
Plus, of course the tories have MPs in Wales, so they have to tread a bit carefully.
Could the tories run election adverts in England like 'for the low down on services under labour....go to Wales....'
It would be risky I guess.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/f1-2014-second-and-third-tests.html
Early forecasts suggest rain is possible for Australia. Normally I like rain, but it'd be good to have a wholly dry weekend so we can get as clear a picture as possible for the pecking order.
Early yesterday morning I was out with my sister as she zeroed her hunting rifle somewhere near Cannock Chase. Very interesting, and she's a far better shot than I ever was.
The meetings I had later in the day seemed rather tame in comparison. ;-)
So, to be honest, are the media. The conservative leadership are probably afraid that criticising Wales' government will be seen as a criticism of the Welsh people themselves. Cameron is very patrician like that, and would not want to do it.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/03/06/blightys_teen_boffin_builds_nuclear_reactor_in_classroom/
The first of big monthly Retail Sales reports, The Visa Europe UK Consumer Expenditure Index compiled by Markit and based on aggregate spending on consumer Visa debit and credit cards, was published this morning.
The overall story is that the rain dampened sales in February but underlying trends remain positive.
Headline findings:
• Year-on-year household expenditure rose slightly in February (+0.3%), following a solid increase on the year in January (+1.5%).
• Month-on-month spending fell marginally in February (-0.4%), following the quickest monthly increase in expenditure since September 2012 in January (+1.8%).
• Quarterly spending figures signalled that underlying expenditure fell slightly in February (-0.5%), after no change in January (+0.0%).
• Non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year expenditure rose solidly through Online spending channels (+4.3%), but declined slightly through Face-to-Face and Mail/Telephone Order categories (-0.9% and -0.8%, respectively).
Jeremy Nicholds, Director of Commercial Development at Visa Europe said:
“February’s wet weather put a mild dampener on consumer purchases but wasn’t enough to halt the continued spending recovery in the UK. This month was the fifth in a row to show an improvement in year-on-year spending and while there was a decline from January on a month-by-month basis, this is less significant than the longer term upward trend. As the weather improves, this upward momentum should be sustained in the coming months as well.
Sectors enjoying a good month were the housing market linked Household Goods (up 4.3%), indoor non-rain affected Online Purchases (also up 4.3%) and PB Londoners affected Hotel and Restaurants (up 7.1%). All annual figures.
Things always seem to kick off when I'm away doing something else.
The Nats need to move about another 16 points to be sure of being decently clearly ahead (allowing for eg GOTV etc).
That is 64 quarter-point intervals at a rate of one such per two years. They've got not so much the "big mo" as the "slo mo".
On that basis Scottish independence will be here in a mere 128 years.
Wee Eck's time will thus come in about 2142, in nice time to begin preparations for the 400th anniversary of the '45 and for malcolmg - who will still be here and still be angry - to be moaning about how the dilithium crystals are in Scottish Planck subspace.
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2014/02/28/decriminalise-the-bbc-licence-fee/
http://www.andrewbridgen.com/content/andrew-bridgen-calls-decriminalisation-nonpayment-tv-licence
Lord Pearson has pushed this in the HoL in the past. Nice to see the proposal being pushed by an MP too.
https://www.ukip.org/newsroom/news/842-ukip-call-for-bbc-non-payment-to-be-made-a-civil-not-criminal-offence
Still good stuff though, and way cool.
edit: the last i read about fusion in the mainstream media was 20 years ago (?) or something like that and all negative.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-23595133
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER
I just knew a PB pedant wouldn’t let SeanT’s comment go unchallenged – well done, Sir. ; )
This little piece is about Apple, but really could cover a lot of companies:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/03/06/cupertino_skipping_beelions_in_tax_report/
Not so much as a loop-hole as a huge gaping vortex.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-bully-pulpit/
Perhaps JackW can assist us in understanding where the young living in older terraces might be in Harpenden and Hitchen? Not West Common?
1. The Ukraine has paid its January Gazprom gas bill of $658.4 million. There was no additional discount provided for paying by American Express card and Eurocheque. Putin reaffirmed that the 33% discount agreed for current supplies will end in April. The Ukraine's outstanding debt to Russia reduces to $1.3 billion which excludes the upcoming February gas bill of $400 million.
2. Greenpeace have filed a request for the release of Arctic Sunrise, their ship confiscated during last September's attempted boarding of a Russian oil rig in the Arctic. No indication on how Russia will respond but Greenpeace may get lucky from the Ukrainian crisis if Putin decides the world needs to see evidence of his feminine side.
3. Inflation in the Ukraine leapt to 0.6% for the month of February. This is about equivalent to the current average annual inflation rate in the Eurozone. No wonder Angela Merkel is reluctant to get too heavily involved in picking up the pieces of the Ukrainian economy.
Fair go, Mr. Cole I was forgetting about the Papists. Old Jack might get away with his Jacobite tendencies, but surely not Mr. Easterross.
Brian Monteith eschews the usual proprietaries over intruding into the private grief of others - in this case, Labour in Scotland:
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2014/03/brian-monteith-now-its-labours-turn-to-take-the-fight-to-the-nationalists.html
Institute of Directors press release
Commenting on the James Brokenshire’s speech on immigration this morning, Simon Walker, Director General of the Institute of Directors, said:
“It is feeble and pathetic to hear yet more divisive language from politicians on immigration. The UK is an open, trading country that benefits from the skills and ideas of migrants. We will not become more prosperous by closing our borders to talented individuals and entrepreneurs from across the world. This speech seems to be more about political positioning and less about what is good for the country."
Businesses to get cheaper labour. They should try training up more of their fellow citizens and cease their short term attitude to investment in the UK.
Labour Party to import more voters.
As Marx(? ask millibean) said, give capitalists enough rope and they will hang themselves.
As I say, give Labour enough rope and they will screw us all.
Without meaning to bore anyone with civil engineering matters (*), a rail industry group has come up with a document outlining possible consequences if HS2 is not built.
The source should be noted (they are pro-rail), and I do not agree with all of it. But the broad thrust seems right to me.
(*) Yes, I know: "civil engineering: see boring"
It is a fantasy (and always was) that "they are taking our jobs".
Beats me also.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2537817/Bruiser-Balls-dragged-apart-screaming-Alexander-stop-fists-flying-Tessa-Jowell-stops-Labour-heavyweights-coming-blows-Europe-vote.html
I wonder if the debate on immigration is shifting very slightly after we didn;t become a suburb of bucharest on January 01 2014. The Angela Merkel visit may have helped too and perhaps economic news is cooling tempers a bit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=768h3Tz4Qik
Awaits the silence ...
(*) Yes, I know I'm guilty of this at times as well.
And it doesn’t look good for the LD’s deposit, if one allows for the shift to Labour.
http://www.conservativehome.com/leftwatch/2012/01/launching-the-do-not-underestimate-labour-association.html
Also the Do not underestimate/unseat Ed Miliband Association(D.U.E.M.A).....has this gone the same way?
http://search.savills.com/content/assets/properties/gbhprshrs110351/HRS110351_HRS13000473.PDF
There are one or two small two bedders around £400K that hit the mark but West Common generally isn't the place to go Ukip hunting. They're far too arriviste for Harpenden and especially the folk on the Common.
http://www.hodges-coaches.co.uk/
I can't quite see JackW in that top picture ...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1331438/Harriet-traitor-How-Harman-led-plot-topple-Brown.html
In comparison, Tory plots have been thin gruel indeed in this parliament.
Take your pick.