I predict the debate will make no difference, as only zealots from the phile or phobe wings of the public will watch it. Two leaders of minor parties, debating on a channel no one watches about a subject no one cares about. Sorry to be a cynic.
MODERATED
Any need for that comment? Any particularly reason why you made it?
Quote from BlackAdder II, just came to mind as something to say to someone you dislike when they insincerely apologise for something
Err right. I think you may have a problem if you feel so strongly about someone you have never met who has never knowingly done anything to you. I'd advise not using that 'wit' of yours in public.
It's ok I'll carry on doing as I like
No.
We have given bans temporary and permanent to posters who has threatened/wished violence/death on other posters.
That sort of comment up thread is not acceptable.
No more.
Oh leave off, really?! As if I meant it! It was a joke from Blackadder to Percy to make it clear how little he thought of him
The rulings with this "new" guy really are something else. He is a troll and you just let it go
I emailed you privately on the subject and no reply. Incredible really
SeanT can confirm he received a two week ban for a similar offence.
BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking · 21 mins BBC Three to become online-only channel available through iPlayer - announcement due tomorrow, BBC News has learned http://bbc.in/MNfODe
urgh..that phrase 'the BBC has learned'
No..it means you just read it off other press reports...
BBC News has learned? BBC News was told in the lift, or the White City canteen.
Russia desperately back-pedalling in their treatment of Ukraine in an attempt to regain some goodwill from its inhabitants. A month ago they were in control of all of Ukraine, now, apart from Crimea, they have forced the rest of the country to firmly embrace the West. 15 years ago, even Poland being part of Nato was an offense to Russia, now Nato could end up right on the borders of Russia . Putin is loosing this one.
Russia announces it is prepared to provide civil assistance to the Ukraine if invited:
The Russian Central Election Commission may provide organizational assistance to hold a referendum in Crimea, CEC secretary Nikolai Konkin told Itar-Tass, making it clear there should be an official invitation.
"In case there is an invitation, we will consider it," Konkin said.
A decision on such assistance is CEC head Vladimir Churov's prerogative, he noted. A referendum on a status and powers of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is planned for March 30.
It is easy to fail to look beyond the threat of tank barrels to see just how helpful Putin is prepared to be in advancing civil progress.
There's not a chance in hell of Ukraine joining NATO. The EU and US might get away with poking the bear in this case, but recruiting Ukraine to NATO would elicit a much stronger and more violent response.
Probably the same was said before Poland, Lithuania, Latvia etc. joined Nato. Anyway, what is Russia going to do about it? Its lost all of the influence it had in Ukraine and forced the Ukrainians to run into the arms of the EU / Nato as fast as they can.
Come on, chaps, let's not argue about who killed who. This is meant to be a happy website.
If it would help to resolve the present unpleasantness, I'd be willing to ease tensions by posting a detailed explanation of the technical challenges F1 teams face this year.
Edited extra bit: on a serious note, I would advocate backing Massa and Bottas (latter still at 65) for the title. Williams look reliable, and that could get them many points early on, allowing for handy hedging during the fly-away period.
I predict the debate will make no difference, as only zealots from the phile or phobe wings of the public will watch it. Two leaders of minor parties, debating on a channel no one watches about a subject no one cares about. Sorry to be a cynic.
MODERATED
Any need for that comment? Any particularly reason why you made it?
Quote from BlackAdder II, just came to mind as something to say to someone you dislike when they insincerely apologise for something
Err right. I think you may have a problem if you feel so strongly about someone you have never met who has never knowingly done anything to you. I'd advise not using that 'wit' of yours in public.
It's ok I'll carry on doing as I like
No.
We have given bans temporary and permanent to posters who has threatened/wished violence/death on other posters.
That sort of comment up thread is not acceptable.
No more.
Oh leave off, really?! As if I meant it! It was a joke from Blackadder to Percy to make it clear how little he thought of him
The rulings with this "new" guy really are something else. He is a troll and you just let it go
I emailed you privately on the subject and no reply. Incredible really
Russia desperately back-pedalling in their treatment of Ukraine in an attempt to regain some goodwill from its inhabitants. A month ago they were in control of all of Ukraine, now, apart from Crimea, they have forced the rest of the country to firmly embrace the West. 15 years ago, even Poland being part of Nato was an offense to Russia, now Nato could end up right on the borders of Russia . Putin is loosing this one.
Russia announces it is prepared to provide civil assistance to the Ukraine if invited:
The Russian Central Election Commission may provide organizational assistance to hold a referendum in Crimea, CEC secretary Nikolai Konkin told Itar-Tass, making it clear there should be an official invitation.
"In case there is an invitation, we will consider it," Konkin said.
A decision on such assistance is CEC head Vladimir Churov's prerogative, he noted. A referendum on a status and powers of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is planned for March 30.
It is easy to fail to look beyond the threat of tank barrels to see just how helpful Putin is prepared to be in advancing civil progress.
There's not a chance in hell of Ukraine joining NATO. The EU and US might get away with poking the bear in this case, but recruiting Ukraine to NATO would elicit a much stronger and more violent response.
Russia doesn't get a veto on who joins NATO.
The following are all NATO members and former satellites of the USSR :
Russia desperately back-pedalling in their treatment of Ukraine in an attempt to regain some goodwill from its inhabitants. A month ago they were in control of all of Ukraine, now, apart from Crimea, they have forced the rest of the country to firmly embrace the West. 15 years ago, even Poland being part of Nato was an offense to Russia, now Nato could end up right on the borders of Russia . Putin is loosing this one.
Russia announces it is prepared to provide civil assistance to the Ukraine if invited:
The Russian Central Election Commission may provide organizational assistance to hold a referendum in Crimea, CEC secretary Nikolai Konkin told Itar-Tass, making it clear there should be an official invitation.
"In case there is an invitation, we will consider it," Konkin said.
A decision on such assistance is CEC head Vladimir Churov's prerogative, he noted. A referendum on a status and powers of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is planned for March 30.
It is easy to fail to look beyond the threat of tank barrels to see just how helpful Putin is prepared to be in advancing civil progress.
There's not a chance in hell of Ukraine joining NATO. The EU and US might get away with poking the bear in this case, but recruiting Ukraine to NATO would elicit a much stronger and more violent response.
Probably the same was said before Poland, Lithuania, Latvia etc. joined Nato. Anyway, what is Russia going to do about it? Its lost all of the influence it had in Ukraine and forced the Ukrainians to run into the arms of the EU / Nato as fast as they can.
A military alliance is a very different thing to a social/trade alliance. And Russia was in a mess when Poland and the Baltic states joined.
BBC Breaking News @BBCBreaking · 21 mins BBC Three to become online-only channel available through iPlayer - announcement due tomorrow, BBC News has learned http://bbc.in/MNfODe
urgh..that phrase 'the BBC has learned'
No..it means you just read it off other press reports...
BBC News has learned? BBC News was told in the lift, or the White City canteen.
Surely BBC will go PPV and can survive in it's own right ?
Putin is sitting in Moscow openly laughing at the West and its frantic rattling of empty sabre scabbards.
To understand why you just have to look at how inter-related the Ukrainian economy is with the Russian Federation:
Overall, between one third and one half of Ukraine’s trade is with the Russian Federation.
Dependence is particularly strong in energy. Up to 70-75% of annually consumed gas and close to 80% of oil comes from Russia. At present the Ukraine are in arrears by $1.5 billion on their gas bills to Russia and from April onwards will no longer enjoy the 33% discount on world prices previously offered.
If the Ukraine fail to pay, Gazprom has said it will cut off supplies. The only option the Ukraine will have is to persuade the international community to pick up the tab.
On the export side, too, dependence is significant.
Russia remains Ukraine’s primary market for ferrous metals, steel plate and pipes, electric machinery, machine tools and equipment, food, and products of chemical industry. It has been a market of hope for Ukraine’s high value-added goods, more than nine tenths of which were historically tied to the Russian consumer.
Ukraine experienced, by the start of the noughties, a 97-99% drop in production of industrial machines and consumer electronics which never competed with similar goods manufactured in Asia and the West. This meant their traditional industrial manufacturers of digital control systems, television sets, tape recorders, excavators, cars and trucks industries all failed.
Nearly one in five people living in the Ukraine are Russian and they form majorities in the all the main industrial and mineral extraction regions of the South and East.
Putin has already made clear (in the 2008 NATO-Russia summit in Bucharest) that if the Ukraine were to attempt to join NATO he would annex the Ukrainian East, South and Crimea. This is not a new policy but has been consistently held and stated by Russia throughout all discussions between the major powers.
Anyone with an ounce of common sense would see that the economic regeneration of The Ukraine requires all of the US, EU and Russia to co-operate and agree before any form of 'Marshall plan' can be implemented.
A bunch of well-meaning democrats in Kiev (or 'neo-Fasciist thugs financed by robber oligarchs', whichever way you want to see them) playing off the EU and US against Russia is doomed to failure.
And it is the western taxpayers not the Russian who will pay the price for such folly.
It is time to stop fighting cold war battles and to release the Ukraine from being torn apart in an unseemly dog-like tug-of-war. This is not a battle for control of the Ukraine. It is an opportunity for the world to benefit through a co-operation which recognises and protects the geo-political interests of all parties.
Russia desperately back-pedalling in their treatment of Ukraine in an attempt to regain some goodwill from its inhabitants. A month ago they were in control of all of Ukraine, now, apart from Crimea, they have forced the rest of the country to firmly embrace the West. 15 years ago, even Poland being part of Nato was an offense to Russia, now Nato could end up right on the borders of Russia . Putin is loosing this one.
Russia announces it is prepared to provide civil assistance to the Ukraine if invited:
The Russian Central Election Commission may provide organizational assistance to hold a referendum in Crimea, CEC secretary Nikolai Konkin told Itar-Tass, making it clear there should be an official invitation.
"In case there is an invitation, we will consider it," Konkin said.
A decision on such assistance is CEC head Vladimir Churov's prerogative, he noted. A referendum on a status and powers of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is planned for March 30.
It is easy to fail to look beyond the threat of tank barrels to see just how helpful Putin is prepared to be in advancing civil progress.
There's not a chance in hell of Ukraine joining NATO. The EU and US might get away with poking the bear in this case, but recruiting Ukraine to NATO would elicit a much stronger and more violent response.
That's the whole point of the US/EU coup. Ukraine were negotiating for NATO membership until Yankowotsit won the election in 2010 and canceled it.
Putin is sitting in Moscow openly laughing at the West and its frantic rattling of empty sabre scabbards.
To understand why you just have to look at how inter-related the Ukrainian economy is with the Russian Federation:
Overall, between one third and one half of Ukraine’s trade is with the Russian Federation.
Dependence is particularly strong in energy. Up to 70-75% of annually consumed gas and close to 80% of oil comes from Russia. At present the Ukraine are in arrears by $1.5 billion on their gas bills to Russia and from April onwards will no longer enjoy the 33% discount on world prices previously offered.
If the Ukraine fail to pay, Gazprom has said it will cut off supplies. The only option the Ukraine will have is to persuade the international community to pick up the tab.
On the export side, too, dependence is significant.
Russia remains Ukraine’s primary market for ferrous metals, steel plate and pipes, electric machinery, machine tools and equipment, food, and products of chemical industry. It has been a market of hope for Ukraine’s high value-added goods, more than nine tenths of which were historically tied to the Russian consumer.
Ukraine experienced, by the start of the noughties, a 97-99% drop in production of industrial machines and consumer electronics which never competed with similar goods manufactured in Asia and the West. This meant their traditional industrial manufacturers of digital control systems, television sets, tape recorders, excavators, cars and trucks industries all failed.
Nearly one in five people living in the Ukraine are Russian and they form majorities in the all the main industrial and mineral extraction regions of the South and East.
Putin has already made clear (in the 2008 NATO-Russia summit in Bucharest) that if the Ukraine were to attempt to join NATO he would annex the Ukrainian East, South and Crimea. This is not a new policy but has been consistently held and stated by Russia throughout all discussions between the major powers.
Anyone with an ounce of common sense would see that the economic regeneration of The Ukraine requires all of the US, EU and Russia to co-operate and agree before any form of 'Marshall plan' can be implemented.
And it is the western taxpayers not the Russian who will pay the price for such folly.
It is time to stop fighting cold war battles and to release the Ukraine from being torn apart in an unseemly dog-like tug-of-war. This is not a battle for control of the Ukraine. It is an opportunity for the world to benefit through a co-operation which recognises and protects the geo-political interests of all parties.
All the same arguments were made of the economies and NATO membership of the former USSR compliant states and yet ....
Dependence is particularly strong in energy. Up to 70-75% of annually consumed gas and close to 80% of oil comes from Russia. At present the Ukraine are in arrears by $1.5 billion on their gas bills to Russia and from April onwards will no longer enjoy the 33% discount on world prices previously offered.
Presumably the Russians may notice a drop off in sales of their gas and oil then eh ?
Not in their interest for this to go on indefinitely...
"I've stood in the last four general elections myself. I've managed to embarrass three national parties into last place and also embarrass myself into last place."
His interest in Stonehenge suggests he's a little chronologically challenged ... and I don't think our classicists would agree with him when he says of his party -
"It's rather like the idea of the Greek and Roman Senate, where senators represented regions."
Russia desperately back-pedalling in their treatment of Ukraine in an attempt to regain some goodwill from its inhabitants. A month ago they were in control of all of Ukraine, now, apart from Crimea, they have forced the rest of the country to firmly embrace the West. 15 years ago, even Poland being part of Nato was an offense to Russia, now Nato could end up right on the borders of Russia . Putin is loosing this one.
Seems to me they're following the same game plan they've been following from the beginning. It's western politicians and media that made themselves look silly talking about an invasion that never was. On the other hand whether he's winning or losing is hard to say just yet but he's obviously playing his hand well.
"Come on, chaps, let's not argue about who killed who. This is meant to be a happy website.
If it would help to resolve the present unpleasantness, I'd be willing to ease tensions by posting a detailed explanation of the technical challenges F1 teams face this year."
Aaaargh, no! Not the 1,000 words on differential front-end grip. Please no! Anything but that. I will never write anything nasty about anyone ever again, honest, I promise. I won't even think, "Tsh, what a knob" when I read the lunacies posted by one or two regular denizens of the site. Anything you like but not the differential front-end grip essay, please.
Were snipers set up by the Ukrainian protesters to fire on their own supporters? Seems farfetched, but not when large groups of neo fascists are supporting the new Ukrainian grouping now in power in Kiev.
UKIP and Russia share a common foe, Comrade - The EU!
Maidan snipers
Comrade Sunilsky.
It matters little (at this stage) whether the allegations are true or false.
What is of current interest is that the claims come from the mouth of the Estonian President.
And Estonia is the poster child of post Soviet economic regeneration and the country which, if we accept the views posted by some on PB, has the most to fear from Russian military imperialism.
The Spectator article on Putin's catastrophe in Ukraine is quite excellent. We are being misdirected. While we fret about Crimea and eastern Ukraine, we are ignoring that Ukraine has apparently decisively slipped from Russia's orbit to look westward. What we are watching is Vladimir Putin's attempt to salvage crumbs from the wreckage. But in fact he is making his position worse, by cementing Ukraine still more firmly in the hands of the west.
We need to grasp this golden opportunity. We need to give Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, a clear path to NATO membership and some cold hard cash to assist them.
While we're about it, we might take a look at what we can do to help Moldova too.
Russia desperately back-pedalling in their treatment of Ukraine in an attempt to regain some goodwill from its inhabitants. A month ago they were in control of all of Ukraine, now, apart from Crimea, they have forced the rest of the country to firmly embrace the West. 15 years ago, even Poland being part of Nato was an offense to Russia, now Nato could end up right on the borders of Russia . Putin is loosing this one.
Russia announces it is prepared to provide civil assistance to the Ukraine if invited:
The Russian Central Election Commission may provide organizational assistance to hold a referendum in Crimea, CEC secretary Nikolai Konkin told Itar-Tass, making it clear there should be an official invitation.
"In case there is an invitation, we will consider it," Konkin said.
A decision on such assistance is CEC head Vladimir Churov's prerogative, he noted. A referendum on a status and powers of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is planned for March 30.
It is easy to fail to look beyond the threat of tank barrels to see just how helpful Putin is prepared to be in advancing civil progress.
There's not a chance in hell of Ukraine joining NATO. The EU and US might get away with poking the bear in this case, but recruiting Ukraine to NATO would elicit a much stronger and more violent response.
Russia doesn't get a veto on who joins NATO.
The following are all NATO members and former satellites of the USSR :
Russia desperately back-pedalling in their treatment of Ukraine in an attempt to regain some goodwill from its inhabitants. A month ago they were in control of all of Ukraine, now, apart from Crimea, they have forced the rest of the country to firmly embrace the West. 15 years ago, even Poland being part of Nato was an offense to Russia, now Nato could end up right on the borders of Russia . Putin is loosing this one.
Russia announces it is prepared to provide civil assistance to the Ukraine if invited:
The Russian Central Election Commission may provide organizational assistance to hold a referendum in Crimea, CEC secretary Nikolai Konkin told Itar-Tass, making it clear there should be an official invitation.
"In case there is an invitation, we will consider it," Konkin said.
A decision on such assistance is CEC head Vladimir Churov's prerogative, he noted. A referendum on a status and powers of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is planned for March 30.
It is easy to fail to look beyond the threat of tank barrels to see just how helpful Putin is prepared to be in advancing civil progress.
There's not a chance in hell of Ukraine joining NATO. The EU and US might get away with poking the bear in this case, but recruiting Ukraine to NATO would elicit a much stronger and more violent response.
Russia doesn't get a veto on who joins NATO.
The following are all NATO members and former satellites of the USSR :
Russia desperately back-pedalling in their treatment of Ukraine in an attempt to regain some goodwill from its inhabitants. A month ago they were in control of all of Ukraine, now, apart from Crimea, they have forced the rest of the country to firmly embrace the West. 15 years ago, even Poland being part of Nato was an offense to Russia, now Nato could end up right on the borders of Russia . Putin is loosing this one.
Russia announces it is prepared to provide civil assistance to the Ukraine if invited:
The Russian Central Election Commission may provide organizational assistance to hold a referendum in Crimea, CEC secretary Nikolai Konkin told Itar-Tass, making it clear there should be an official invitation.
"In case there is an invitation, we will consider it," Konkin said.
A decision on such assistance is CEC head Vladimir Churov's prerogative, he noted. A referendum on a status and powers of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is planned for March 30.
It is easy to fail to look beyond the threat of tank barrels to see just how helpful Putin is prepared to be in advancing civil progress.
There's not a chance in hell of Ukraine joining NATO. The EU and US might get away with poking the bear in this case, but recruiting Ukraine to NATO would elicit a much stronger and more violent response.
Russia doesn't get a veto on who joins NATO.
The following are all NATO members and former satellites of the USSR :
They are indeed Jack. That is also a list of why NATO as a credible defensive military alliance is defunct.
I'd wait till till NATO fails to come up to scratch after an attack on one of those countries before making that pronouncement. I am against action over the Ukraine, but the NATO treaty is gloriously plain and simple and obliges us to treat sending troops into any NATO country as exactly equivalent to napalming Cheltenham and to respond accordingly. That is an obligation we should honour.
Because, Jack, we aren't going to go to war in defence of Poland again. It didn't work out well last time. Nor is France, The USA, Germany, let alone the other NATO members who have essentially disarmed. The idea that Belgium would go to war in defence of, say Latvia, is laughable.
The countries of NATO faced with an attack on one of their eastern members by, say, Russia may well respond fully in accordance with Article 5 by complaining to the security council and, perhaps, by tabling a strongly worded resolution at the UN.
The BBC report that a man is to spend ten days in a adult sized hamster wheel.
Unconfirmed reports indicate that this Labour party initiative is part of their plans to ensure the lights stay on should Ed Miliband's gas price moratorium policy see power cuts and candles all-round :
When deprived of sleep (which presumably he would be) humans start suffering mental and physiological symptoms. If taken to excess, such as in the thankfully rare fatal familial insomnia, people go permanently insane and then die.
F1: annoyed that such short odds are available even for Marussia drivers to score points in Australia (only about 7, or shorter). I'd considered backing them, on the basis they might make the chequered flag and many others won't.
Because, Jack, we aren't going to go to war in defence of Poland again. It didn't work out well last time. Nor is France, The USA, Germany, let alone the other NATO members who have essentially disarmed. The idea that Belgium would go to war in defence of, say Latvia, is laughable.
The countries of NATO faced with an attack on one of their eastern members by, say, Russia may well respond fully in accordance with Article 5 by complaining to the security council and, perhaps, by tabling a strongly worded resolution at the UN.
The principle of NATO is that it is a collective security arrangement not just Belgium supporting Latvia.
If NATO is so defunct why has Russia before and now been so desperate to ensure countries, even smaller one, do not join ?
Because, Jack, we aren't going to go to war in defence of Poland again. It didn't work out well last time. Nor is France, The USA, Germany, let alone the other NATO members who have essentially disarmed. The idea that Belgium would go to war in defence of, say Latvia, is laughable.
The countries of NATO faced with an attack on one of their eastern members by, say, Russia may well respond fully in accordance with Article 5 by complaining to the security council and, perhaps, by tabling a strongly worded resolution at the UN.
Putin is sitting in Moscow openly laughing at the West and its frantic rattling of empty sabre scabbards.
...
All the same arguments were made of the economies and NATO membership of the former USSR compliant states and yet ....
I am sure such arguments were made, Jack, but there is a world of difference between the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania) and Central European countries (Poland, Czech & Slovak Republics - maybe Slovenia - and Hungary).
These countries have historically been part of Western Europe or under the control of Western empires. The Russo-Slavic states (Belarus, the Ukraine - maybe Moldova - and Kazakastan, sort of) have never been Western European, were under the direct yoke of the Soviet Union or Imperial Russia (or even the Ottomans going back further).
Anyone who has done business with or travelled to the two groups of countries (and I started doing business with them all in the mid 1980s) will have immediately recognised the difference even in communist times.
The future for the EU must at some stage involve an accommodation with the 'sixth continent' of Russia and its Russo-Slavic neighbours, but the way forward is not to shave the bits off Russia but to gradually tame and then embrace the bear.
Do we really want the cost and conflict of regenerating The Ukraine with Russia trying to frustrate every step? Germany found reunification a long and difficult meal and it is still experiencing mild indigestion. Absorbing The Ukraine would be a meal too far for Sgr. Creosote!
Co-operation not confrontation is the way forward.
The Spectator article on Putin's catastrophe in Ukraine is quite excellent. We are being misdirected. While we fret about Crimea and eastern Ukraine, we are ignoring that Ukraine has apparently decisively slipped from Russia's orbit to look westward. What we are watching is Vladimir Putin's attempt to salvage crumbs from the wreckage. But in fact he is making his position worse, by cementing Ukraine still more firmly in the hands of the west.
We need to grasp this golden opportunity. We need to give Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, a clear path to NATO membership and some cold hard cash to assist them.
While we're about it, we might take a look at what we can do to help Moldova too.
Most of the EU states are broke. I don't think giving the Ukraine significant sums of money is an option.
I'd wait till till NATO fails to come up to scratch after an attack on one of those countries before making that pronouncement. I am against action over the Ukraine, but the NATO treaty is gloriously plain and simple and obliges us to treat sending troops into any NATO country as exactly equivalent to napalming Cheltenham and to respond accordingly. That is an obligation we should honour.
Mr. Ishmael, I suggest you go back and read Article 5 of the NATO treaty - there is no requirement that the members respond to a military attack with military force, only that the other members take such action as they deem necessary and that they report their actions to the Security Council at the UN.
The Spectator article on Putin's catastrophe in Ukraine is quite excellent. We are being misdirected. While we fret about Crimea and eastern Ukraine, we are ignoring that Ukraine has apparently decisively slipped from Russia's orbit to look westward. What we are watching is Vladimir Putin's attempt to salvage crumbs from the wreckage. But in fact he is making his position worse, by cementing Ukraine still more firmly in the hands of the west.
We need to grasp this golden opportunity. We need to give Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, a clear path to NATO membership and some cold hard cash to assist them.
While we're about it, we might take a look at what we can do to help Moldova too.
Most of the EU states are broke. I don't think giving the Ukraine significant sums of money is an option.
Ironically, we in the West have political parties trying to free their countries from the EU yoke.
When Averell Harriman, the US Envoy to the USSR from 1943-1946 (and briefly to the UK too), remarked to Stalin that he must be relieved to have his forces in Berlin at long last, the Vozhd reportedly replied: "Tsar Alexander reached Paris."
Because, Jack, we aren't going to go to war in defence of Poland again. It didn't work out well last time. Nor is France, The USA, Germany, let alone the other NATO members who have essentially disarmed. The idea that Belgium would go to war in defence of, say Latvia, is laughable.
The countries of NATO faced with an attack on one of their eastern members by, say, Russia may well respond fully in accordance with Article 5 by complaining to the security council and, perhaps, by tabling a strongly worded resolution at the UN.
As big a mistake as trusting the Italians ?
I didn't really trust them. Indeed, after Andy Cooke took over France I was fairly certain that Italy would betray me, which indeed they did. Such is Diplomacy and such is the power if that smooth-talking, treacherous git Cooke.
The Spectator article on Putin's catastrophe in Ukraine is quite excellent. We are being misdirected. While we fret about Crimea and eastern Ukraine, we are ignoring that Ukraine has apparently decisively slipped from Russia's orbit to look westward. What we are watching is Vladimir Putin's attempt to salvage crumbs from the wreckage. But in fact he is making his position worse, by cementing Ukraine still more firmly in the hands of the west.
We need to grasp this golden opportunity. We need to give Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, a clear path to NATO membership and some cold hard cash to assist them.
While we're about it, we might take a look at what we can do to help Moldova too.
Well said. I think Dave and Angela should propose EU membership for Ukraine at some point in the near future. Stick in extra long transitional controls of 10 years and watch as the Russians scramble around trying to rebuild the USSR.
The Spectator article on Putin's catastrophe in Ukraine is quite excellent. We are being misdirected. While we fret about Crimea and eastern Ukraine, we are ignoring that Ukraine has apparently decisively slipped from Russia's orbit to look westward. What we are watching is Vladimir Putin's attempt to salvage crumbs from the wreckage. But in fact he is making his position worse, by cementing Ukraine still more firmly in the hands of the west.
We need to grasp this golden opportunity. We need to give Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, a clear path to NATO membership and some cold hard cash to assist them.
While we're about it, we might take a look at what we can do to help Moldova too.
You are absolutely right - Ukraine stripped of its Russian bits will be much more Western facing.
It's worth remembering that there has been an extraordinary difference in the economic performance of those bits of Russia that became attached to the EU, and those that remained in the Russian orbit.
So, GDP per head:
Estonia $16,000 Latvia $14,000 Lithuania $14,000
Belarus $7,000 Ukraine $4,000 Georgia $3,500
Can you blame people in Ukraine for wanting to emulate the Estonians?
The Spectator article on Putin's catastrophe in Ukraine is quite excellent. We are being misdirected. While we fret about Crimea and eastern Ukraine, we are ignoring that Ukraine has apparently decisively slipped from Russia's orbit to look westward. What we are watching is Vladimir Putin's attempt to salvage crumbs from the wreckage. But in fact he is making his position worse, by cementing Ukraine still more firmly in the hands of the west.
We need to grasp this golden opportunity. We need to give Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, a clear path to NATO membership and some cold hard cash to assist them.
While we're about it, we might take a look at what we can do to help Moldova too.
Most of the EU states are broke. I don't think giving the Ukraine significant sums of money is an option.
Ironically, we in the West have political parties trying to free their countries from the EU yoke.
Given the choice, the Ukraine might prefer a free trade deal with the EU, to EU membership.
One interesting meta geopolitical point is that China has supported Russia in all this. Of course one may argue that is to be expected but China has more readies readily available than the EU now.
Independence news: sounds like RBS and Lloyds would be forced by law (though it might be their choice were it not so) to move south should Yes win: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26455655
One interesting meta geopolitical point is that China has supported Russia in all this. Of course one may argue that is to be expected but China has more readies readily available than the EU now.
China's stance is in preparation for reciprocal support on the UNSC should they try and annex Senkaku. I very much doubt they would get involved in an armed conflict.
The Spectator article on Putin's catastrophe in Ukraine is quite excellent. We are being misdirected. While we fret about Crimea and eastern Ukraine, we are ignoring that Ukraine has apparently decisively slipped from Russia's orbit to look westward. What we are watching is Vladimir Putin's attempt to salvage crumbs from the wreckage. But in fact he is making his position worse, by cementing Ukraine still more firmly in the hands of the west.
We need to grasp this golden opportunity. We need to give Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, a clear path to NATO membership and some cold hard cash to assist them.
While we're about it, we might take a look at what we can do to help Moldova too.
You are absolutely right - Ukraine stripped of its Russian bits will be much more Western facing.
It's worth remembering that there has been an extraordinary difference in the economic performance of those bits of Russia that became attached to the EU, and those that remained in the Russian orbit.
So, GDP per head:
Estonia $16,000 Latvia $14,000 Lithuania $14,000
Belarus $7,000 Ukraine $4,000 Georgia $3,500
Can you blame people in Ukraine for wanting to emulate the Estonians?
But, Robert, there was an extraordinary difference in the economic performance of those bits of the USSR that are now doing well in the EU and the rest of the Soviet bloc/Warsaw pact.
Estonia had the highest GDP per capita in communist times.
And the top three all benefit in the GDP per capita measures by having fewer capita.
Because, Jack, we aren't going to go to war in defence of Poland again. It didn't work out well last time. Nor is France, The USA, Germany, let alone the other NATO members who have essentially disarmed. The idea that Belgium would go to war in defence of, say Latvia, is laughable.
The countries of NATO faced with an attack on one of their eastern members by, say, Russia may well respond fully in accordance with Article 5 by complaining to the security council and, perhaps, by tabling a strongly worded resolution at the UN.
The principle of NATO is that it is a collective security arrangement not just Belgium supporting Latvia.
If NATO is so defunct why has Russia before and now been so desperate to ensure countries, even smaller one, do not join ?
I know what NATO is, Jack, I have even read the treaty. It is a busted flush. Why Russia cares about I don't know, but they could, if they still had the means, roll West with the Third Shock Army and none of the Major Western Countries would, or probably even could, put any force in their way.
Think it through, Jack, lets us just suppose that Russia takes over Ukraine. Then in a couple of years they decide to go for Poland - what military force would the UK able to commit to the defence of Poland? And we are one of the strongest military nations in the alliance. And that assumes there would be the political will to go to war in the first place.
NATO is a busted flush, it should have been wound up twenty years ago. Nowadays its just a paper tiger, whose only purpose is to give a pretence to the gullible that there a system of defence.
I'd wait till till NATO fails to come up to scratch after an attack on one of those countries before making that pronouncement. I am against action over the Ukraine, but the NATO treaty is gloriously plain and simple and obliges us to treat sending troops into any NATO country as exactly equivalent to napalming Cheltenham and to respond accordingly. That is an obligation we should honour.
Mr. Ishmael, I suggest you go back and read Article 5 of the NATO treaty - there is no requirement that the members respond to a military attack with military force, only that the other members take such action as they deem necessary and that they report their actions to the Security Council at the UN.
Article 5 says this:
"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security."
In an appropriate case it would be incontrovertible that the only possible response is the use of armed force. Such a case would arise if Russia behaved as it has behaved in Ukraine and declined an invitation to withdraw its troops.
One interesting meta geopolitical point is that China has supported Russia in all this. Of course one may argue that is to be expected but China has more readies readily available than the EU now.
China's stance is in preparation for reciprocal support on the UNSC should they try and annex Senkaku. I very much doubt they would get involved in an armed conflict.
I think Taiwan would be a closer match to the Crimea.
One interesting meta geopolitical point is that China has supported Russia in all this. Of course one may argue that is to be expected but China has more readies readily available than the EU now.
The Spectator article on Putin's catastrophe in Ukraine is quite excellent. We are being misdirected. While we fret about Crimea and eastern Ukraine, we are ignoring that Ukraine has apparently decisively slipped from Russia's orbit to look westward. What we are watching is Vladimir Putin's attempt to salvage crumbs from the wreckage. But in fact he is making his position worse, by cementing Ukraine still more firmly in the hands of the west.
We need to grasp this golden opportunity. We need to give Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, a clear path to NATO membership and some cold hard cash to assist them.
While we're about it, we might take a look at what we can do to help Moldova too.
Most of the EU states are broke. I don't think giving the Ukraine significant sums of money is an option.
No:
Greece is definitely broke; Portugal is probably broke. Italy and France might well be broke in the future, but aren't right now. Spain and Ireland were broke, but are probably not broke anymore.
Germany is not broke. We are not broke. The Netherlands is not broke. Austria is not broke. Nor are Finland, Denmark, or Sweden.
€11bn is less than 0.1% of Eurozone GDP, and probably about 0.05% of EU GDP. And it is proposed that it will be over four years. So, really we're talking about 0.01% of EU GDP a year.
The Spectator article on Putin's catastrophe in Ukraine is quite excellent. We are being misdirected. While we fret about Crimea and eastern Ukraine, we are ignoring that Ukraine has apparently decisively slipped from Russia's orbit to look westward. What we are watching is Vladimir Putin's attempt to salvage crumbs from the wreckage. But in fact he is making his position worse, by cementing Ukraine still more firmly in the hands of the west.
We need to grasp this golden opportunity. We need to give Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, a clear path to NATO membership and some cold hard cash to assist them.
While we're about it, we might take a look at what we can do to help Moldova too.
Most of the EU states are broke. I don't think giving the Ukraine significant sums of money is an option.
No:
Greece is definitely broke; Portugal is probably broke. Italy and France might well be broke in the future, but aren't right now. Spain and Ireland were broke, but are probably not broke anymore.
Germany is not broke. We are not broke. The Netherlands is not broke. Austria is not broke. Nor are Finland, Denmark, or Sweden.
€11bn is less than 0.1% of Eurozone GDP, and probably about 0.05% of EU GDP. And it is proposed that it will be over four years. So, really we're talking about 0.01% of EU GDP a year.
One interesting meta geopolitical point is that China has supported Russia in all this. Of course one may argue that is to be expected but China has more readies readily available than the EU now.
China's stance is in preparation for reciprocal support on the UNSC should they try and annex Senkaku. I very much doubt they would get involved in an armed conflict.
I think Taiwan would be a closer match to the Crimea.
Taiwan is not a realistic prospect for China. It has a massive entrenched population who loathe the mainland government/people. Senkaku is uninhabited and Japan is recovering from huge economic turmoil and is still not militarily powerful relative to it's population and economic size.
The Spectator article on Putin's catastrophe in Ukraine is quite excellent. We are being misdirected. While we fret about Crimea and eastern Ukraine, we are ignoring that Ukraine has apparently decisively slipped from Russia's orbit to look westward. What we are watching is Vladimir Putin's attempt to salvage crumbs from the wreckage. But in fact he is making his position worse, by cementing Ukraine still more firmly in the hands of the west.
We need to grasp this golden opportunity. We need to give Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, a clear path to NATO membership and some cold hard cash to assist them.
While we're about it, we might take a look at what we can do to help Moldova too.
Most of the EU states are broke. I don't think giving the Ukraine significant sums of money is an option.
No:
Greece is definitely broke; Portugal is probably broke. Italy and France might well be broke in the future, but aren't right now. Spain and Ireland were broke, but are probably not broke anymore.
Germany is not broke. We are not broke. The Netherlands is not broke. Austria is not broke. Nor are Finland, Denmark, or Sweden.
€11bn is less than 0.1% of Eurozone GDP, and probably about 0.05% of EU GDP. And it is proposed that it will be over four years. So, really we're talking about 0.01% of EU GDP a year.
Banker's bonus tax would sort that out. I'll write to Ed and tell him.
The Spectator article on Putin's catastrophe in Ukraine is quite excellent. We are being misdirected. While we fret about Crimea and eastern Ukraine, we are ignoring that Ukraine has apparently decisively slipped from Russia's orbit to look westward. What we are watching is Vladimir Putin's attempt to salvage crumbs from the wreckage. But in fact he is making his position worse, by cementing Ukraine still more firmly in the hands of the west.
We need to grasp this golden opportunity. We need to give Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, a clear path to NATO membership and some cold hard cash to assist them.
While we're about it, we might take a look at what we can do to help Moldova too.
Most of the EU states are broke. I don't think giving the Ukraine significant sums of money is an option.
No:
Greece is definitely broke; Portugal is probably broke. Italy and France might well be broke in the future, but aren't right now. Spain and Ireland were broke, but are probably not broke anymore.
Germany is not broke. We are not broke. The Netherlands is not broke. Austria is not broke. Nor are Finland, Denmark, or Sweden.
€11bn is less than 0.1% of Eurozone GDP, and probably about 0.05% of EU GDP. And it is proposed that it will be over four years. So, really we're talking about 0.01% of EU GDP a year.
I'd wait till till NATO fails to come up to scratch after an attack on one of those countries before making that pronouncement. I am against action over the Ukraine, but the NATO treaty is gloriously plain and simple and obliges us to treat sending troops into any NATO country as exactly equivalent to napalming Cheltenham and to respond accordingly. That is an obligation we should honour.
Mr. Ishmael, I suggest you go back and read Article 5 of the NATO treaty - there is no requirement that the members respond to a military attack with military force, only that the other members take such action as they deem necessary and that they report their actions to the Security Council at the UN.
Article 5 says this:
"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security."
In an appropriate case it would be incontrovertible that the only possible response is the use of armed force. Such a case would arise if Russia behaved as it has behaved in Ukraine and declined an invitation to withdraw its troops.
I think the point being made is what if you've got no armed force to use?
For most NATO members the options boil down to choosing whether or not to be cheer-leaders for the US.
One interesting meta geopolitical point is that China has supported Russia in all this. Of course one may argue that is to be expected but China has more readies readily available than the EU now.
China's stance is in preparation for reciprocal support on the UNSC should they try and annex Senkaku. I very much doubt they would get involved in an armed conflict.
I think Taiwan would be a closer match to the Crimea.
Was sad to see on the news about the bombing of Kunming Railway station. When I was backpacking around China around a decade ago I passed through said railway station. Its a pleasent city and 1500 miles from Beijing.
I immediately thought that it was Xinjiang seperatists - a point confirmed by the news reports. Quite sad - terrorism is a problem all over the world.
I'd wait till till NATO fails to come up to scratch after an attack on one of those countries before making that pronouncement. I am against action over the Ukraine, but the NATO treaty is gloriously plain and simple and obliges us to treat sending troops into any NATO country as exactly equivalent to napalming Cheltenham and to respond accordingly. That is an obligation we should honour.
Mr. Ishmael, I suggest you go back and read Article 5 of the NATO treaty - there is no requirement that the members respond to a military attack with military force, only that the other members take such action as they deem necessary and that they report their actions to the Security Council at the UN.
Article 5 says this:
"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security."
In an appropriate case it would be incontrovertible that the only possible response is the use of armed force. Such a case would arise if Russia behaved as it has behaved in Ukraine and declined an invitation to withdraw its troops.
I think the point being made is what if you've got no armed force to use?
For most NATO members the options boil down to choosing whether or not to be cheer-leaders for the US.
"And in a surprise move, an elite force of US cheerleaders stormed the Russian defences at Sevastopol early this morning."
Because, Jack, we aren't going to go to war in defence of Poland again. It didn't work out well last time. Nor is France, The USA, Germany, let alone the other NATO members who have essentially disarmed. The idea that Belgium would go to war in defence of, say Latvia, is laughable.
The countries of NATO faced with an attack on one of their eastern members by, say, Russia may well respond fully in accordance with Article 5 by complaining to the security council and, perhaps, by tabling a strongly worded resolution at the UN.
The principle of NATO is that it is a collective security arrangement not just Belgium supporting Latvia.
If NATO is so defunct why has Russia before and now been so desperate to ensure countries, even smaller one, do not join ?
I know what NATO is, Jack, I have even read the treaty. It is a busted flush. Why Russia cares about I don't know, but they could, if they still had the means, roll West with the Third Shock Army and none of the Major Western Countries would, or probably even could, put any force in their way.
Think it through, Jack, lets us just suppose that Russia takes over Ukraine. Then in a couple of years they decide to go for Poland - what military force would the UK able to commit to the defence of Poland? And we are one of the strongest military nations in the alliance. And that assumes there would be the political will to go to war in the first place.
NATO is a busted flush, it should have been wound up twenty years ago. Nowadays its just a paper tiger, whose only purpose is to give a pretence to the gullible that there a system of defence.
What portion of NATO does the US military make up ?
One interesting meta geopolitical point is that China has supported Russia in all this. Of course one may argue that is to be expected but China has more readies readily available than the EU now.
China's stance is in preparation for reciprocal support on the UNSC should they try and annex Senkaku. I very much doubt they would get involved in an armed conflict.
I think Taiwan would be a closer match to the Crimea.
Was sad to see on the news about the bombing of Kunming Railway station. When I was backpacking around China around a decade ago I passed through said railway station. Its a pleasent city and 1500 miles from Beijing.
I immediately thought that it was Xinjiang seperatists - a point confirmed by the news reports. Quite sad - terrorism is a problem all over the world.
Indeed. Whether it's Marxists, separatists, fascists, anti-abortionists, Islamists, or cuckoo bunker-dwellers in Montana, there are far too many people willing to kill and main indiscriminately to advance their cause.
The Spectator article on Putin's catastrophe in Ukraine is quite excellent. We are being misdirected. While we fret about Crimea and eastern Ukraine, we are ignoring that Ukraine has apparently decisively slipped from Russia's orbit to look westward. What we are watching is Vladimir Putin's attempt to salvage crumbs from the wreckage. But in fact he is making his position worse, by cementing Ukraine still more firmly in the hands of the west.
We need to grasp this golden opportunity. We need to give Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, a clear path to NATO membership and some cold hard cash to assist them.
While we're about it, we might take a look at what we can do to help Moldova too.
Most of the EU states are broke. I don't think giving the Ukraine significant sums of money is an option.
No:
Greece is definitely broke; Portugal is probably broke. Italy and France might well be broke in the future, but aren't right now. Spain and Ireland were broke, but are probably not broke anymore.
Germany is not broke. We are not broke. The Netherlands is not broke. Austria is not broke. Nor are Finland, Denmark, or Sweden.
€11bn is less than 0.1% of Eurozone GDP, and probably about 0.05% of EU GDP. And it is proposed that it will be over four years. So, really we're talking about 0.01% of EU GDP a year.
The Ukraine is reported to need USD35 bn. The EU is offering €1 bn. The €11 appears to be conditional on Ukraine making a deal with the IMF.
I'd wait till till NATO fails to come up to scratch after an attack on one of those countries before making that pronouncement. I am against action over the Ukraine, but the NATO treaty is gloriously plain and simple and obliges us to treat sending troops into any NATO country as exactly equivalent to napalming Cheltenham and to respond accordingly. That is an obligation we should honour.
Mr. Ishmael, I suggest you go back and read Article 5 of the NATO treaty - there is no requirement that the members respond to a military attack with military force, only that the other members take such action as they deem necessary and that they report their actions to the Security Council at the UN.
Article 5 says this:
"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security."
In an appropriate case it would be incontrovertible that the only possible response is the use of armed force. Such a case would arise if Russia behaved as it has behaved in Ukraine and declined an invitation to withdraw its troops.
I think the point being made is what if you've got no armed force to use?
For most NATO members the options boil down to choosing whether or not to be cheer-leaders for the US.
"And in a surprise move, an elite force of US cheerleaders stormed the Russian defences at Sevastopol early this morning."
Russian Foreign Ministry has published a batch of documents of the Soviet People’s Commissariat of the Interior (NKVD) dating back to the years from 1942 through to 1945 and related to the operations of far-right Ukrainian nationalist paramilitaries during World War II.
The documents contain the eyewitnesses’ reports speaking about cooperation of members of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army and the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN/UIA) with the Nazis, as well as their involvement in mass purges of the population.
A long article on ITAR-TASS. Quoting classified NKVD reports, this section gives a flavour:
"People of different nationalities became victims of nationalists. In particular, an agent report from the area of Rivne dated August 4, 1943, tells about a mass execution of Poles. “An agent of the NUD group that returned from the mountains of Vladimir-Volynsk, reported that July 18, 1943, he became witness to a mass execution of Polish population of Vladimir-Volynsk carried out by Ukrainian nationalists – Banderovites. During service in catholic churches, the Banderovites killed 11 Roman Catholic priests and up to 2000 Poles on the town’s streets. The German garrison, police and Cossacks numbering 600 people did not take any measures against the execution of Poles, and only after that the German command hung out a notice urging Poles to enroll in the gendarmerie to fight against Banderovites. Many Poles for fear of repressions went to serve for the Germans."
It is the confirmation of long suspected but denied war crimes which will open up wounds which have been slowly healing for decades.
One interesting meta geopolitical point is that China has supported Russia in all this. Of course one may argue that is to be expected but China has more readies readily available than the EU now.
China's stance is in preparation for reciprocal support on the UNSC should they try and annex Senkaku. I very much doubt they would get involved in an armed conflict.
I think Taiwan would be a closer match to the Crimea.
Was sad to see on the news about the bombing of Kunming Railway station. When I was backpacking around China around a decade ago I passed through said railway station. Its a pleasent city and 1500 miles from Beijing.
I immediately thought that it was Xinjiang seperatists - a point confirmed by the news reports. Quite sad - terrorism is a problem all over the world.
Kunming is where I met my girlfriend. It's a really great plave. So relaxed, unlike the rear of China.
"In an appropriate case it would be incontrovertible that the only possible response is the use of armed force."
Nope, that is your judgement not a fact. Another person might decide that "such action as it deems necessary" is a sharp diplomatic note. The NATO treaty does not require all members to go to war against the aggressor if one of them is attacked. Furthermore I would be amazed if any of them did.
NATO was set-up for a particular set of circumstances that are now long past. Its attempt to expand have been successful on paper but its attempt to find another role (e.g. out of area operations such as Afghanistan) have been a spectacular failure.
Some years ago all the members of NATO agreed to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence. How many have abided by that agreement?
The Spectator article on Putin's catastrophe in Ukraine is quite excellent. We are being misdirected. While we fret about Crimea and eastern Ukraine, we are ignoring that Ukraine has apparently decisively slipped from Russia's orbit to look westward. What we are watching is Vladimir Putin's attempt to salvage crumbs from the wreckage. But in fact he is making his position worse, by cementing Ukraine still more firmly in the hands of the west.
We need to grasp this golden opportunity. We need to give Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, a clear path to NATO membership and some cold hard cash to assist them.
While we're about it, we might take a look at what we can do to help Moldova too.
Most of the EU states are broke. I don't think giving the Ukraine significant sums of money is an option.
No:
Greece is definitely broke; Portugal is probably broke. Italy and France might well be broke in the future, but aren't right now. Spain and Ireland were broke, but are probably not broke anymore.
Germany is not broke. We are not broke. The Netherlands is not broke. Austria is not broke. Nor are Finland, Denmark, or Sweden.
€11bn is less than 0.1% of Eurozone GDP, and probably about 0.05% of EU GDP. And it is proposed that it will be over four years. So, really we're talking about 0.01% of EU GDP a year.
The Ukraine is reported to need USD35 bn. The EU is offering €1 bn. The €11 appears to be conditional on Ukraine making a deal with the IMF.
Russia can pay cash.
Average GDP per capita of ex-communist countries who joined the EU $13,000 Average GDP per capita of ex-communist countries who stayed in Russia's orbit $4,000
Now I know you're not a fan of the EU, but if you were sitting in Kiev, with whom would you like to align yourself with?
Not to worry, I saw yours first re RBS and HBOS - hardly surprising, as some of us have been saying, so no point in discussing further, though the new EU directive twist was interesting, so many thanks to the two of you.
Is Yokel around? I noticed that Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain have withdrawn their ambassadors to Qatar. Do you have any thoughts on how serious this is and how badly it could escalate? I wonder if (not tomorrow, but in the near- to medium-term) Saudi Arabia might lose patience with Qatar's meddling in the region sufficiently to send in the tanks.
I'd wait till till NATO fails to come up to scratch after an attack on one of those countries before making that pronouncement. I am against action over the Ukraine, but the NATO treaty is gloriously plain and simple and obliges us to treat sending troops into any NATO country as exactly equivalent to napalming Cheltenham and to respond accordingly. That is an obligation we should honour.
Mr. Ishmael, I suggest you go back and read Article 5 of the NATO treaty - there is no requirement that the members respond to a military attack with military force, only that the other members take such action as they deem necessary and that they report their actions to the Security Council at the UN.
Article 5 says this:
"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security."
In an appropriate case it would be incontrovertible that the only possible response is the use of armed force. Such a case would arise if Russia behaved as it has behaved in Ukraine and declined an invitation to withdraw its troops.
I think the point being made is what if you've got no armed force to use?
For most NATO members the options boil down to choosing whether or not to be cheer-leaders for the US.
True. And we have already seen this in Iraq. But the treaty binds all parties to it, and the "but we have no army" card is only playable by those who actually have no army.
I was changing planes at Dubai airport a few days ago and it was a rather disappointing experience: passengers had to get out of the plane the old-fashioned way, wait around on the tarmac, and then board buses.
It was okay at 7am in February (about 18 degrees) but I wouldn't like to do it at 2pm in August when temperatures might be well over 40 degrees.
Russian Foreign Ministry has published a batch of documents of the Soviet People’s Commissariat of the Interior (NKVD) dating back to the years from 1942 through to 1945 and related to the operations of far-right Ukrainian nationalist paramilitaries during World War II.
The documents contain the eyewitnesses’ reports speaking about cooperation of members of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army and the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN/UIA) with the Nazis, as well as their involvement in mass purges of the population.
A long article on ITAR-TASS. Quoting classified NKVD reports, this section gives a flavour:
"People of different nationalities became victims of nationalists. In particular, an agent report from the area of Rivne dated August 4, 1943, tells about a mass execution of Poles. “An agent of the NUD group that returned from the mountains of Vladimir-Volynsk, reported that July 18, 1943, he became witness to a mass execution of Polish population of Vladimir-Volynsk carried out by Ukrainian nationalists – Banderovites. During service in catholic churches, the Banderovites killed 11 Roman Catholic priests and up to 2000 Poles on the town’s streets. The German garrison, police and Cossacks numbering 600 people did not take any measures against the execution of Poles, and only after that the German command hung out a notice urging Poles to enroll in the gendarmerie to fight against Banderovites. Many Poles for fear of repressions went to serve for the Germans."
It is the confirmation of long suspected but denied war crimes which will open up wounds which have been slowly healing for decades.
Very nasty.
I first watched "Escape from Sobibor" at school - in History class, so it was deemed appropriate - and I remember the guards were described as "Ukrainians".
I was changing planes at Dubai airport a few days ago and it was a rather disappointing experience: passengers had to get out of the plane the old-fashioned way, wait around on the tarmac, and then board buses.
Which airline? I switched to Emirates from Qatar to avoid that experience at Doha!
The Spectator article on Putin's catastrophe in Ukraine is quite excellent. We are being misdirected. While we fret about Crimea and eastern Ukraine, we are ignoring that Ukraine has apparently decisively slipped from Russia's orbit to look westward. What we are watching is Vladimir Putin's attempt to salvage crumbs from the wreckage. But in fact he is making his position worse, by cementing Ukraine still more firmly in the hands of the west.
We need to grasp this golden opportunity. We need to give Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, a clear path to NATO membership and some cold hard cash to assist them.
While we're about it, we might take a look at what we can do to help Moldova too.
Most of the EU states are broke. I don't think giving the Ukraine significant sums of money is an option.
No:
Greece is definitely broke; Portugal is probably broke. Italy and France might well be broke in the future, but aren't right now. Spain and Ireland were broke, but are probably not broke anymore.
Germany is not broke. We are not broke. The Netherlands is not broke. Austria is not broke. Nor are Finland, Denmark, or Sweden.
€11bn is less than 0.1% of Eurozone GDP, and probably about 0.05% of EU GDP. And it is proposed that it will be over four years. So, really we're talking about 0.01% of EU GDP a year.
The Ukraine is reported to need USD35 bn. The EU is offering €1 bn. The €11 appears to be conditional on Ukraine making a deal with the IMF.
Russia can pay cash.
Average GDP per capita of ex-communist countries who joined the EU $13,000 Average GDP per capita of ex-communist countries who stayed in Russia's orbit $4,000
Now I know you're not a fan of the EU, but if you were sitting in Kiev, with whom would you like to align yourself with?
Average monthly salary higher in eastern Ukraine than in the western part?
Is Yokel around? I noticed that Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain have withdrawn their ambassadors to Qatar. Do you have any thoughts on how serious this is and how badly it could escalate? I wonder if (not tomorrow, but in the near- to medium-term) Saudi Arabia might lose patience with Qatar's meddling in the region sufficiently to send in the tanks.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcSMaNlcDPs
Re-enactment of a typical comment thread commences at 35 seconds in.
We will check disqus for any messages now.
Probably the same was said before Poland, Lithuania, Latvia etc. joined Nato. Anyway, what is Russia going to do about it? Its lost all of the influence it had in Ukraine and forced the Ukrainians to run into the arms of the EU / Nato as fast as they can.
http://www.aboutmyarea.co.uk/Northamptonshire/Towcester/NN12/News/Local-News/268710-Scott-Collins-To-Stand-For-Lib-Dems-In-South-Northants-In-2015-General-Election
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/e17.stm
If it would help to resolve the present unpleasantness, I'd be willing to ease tensions by posting a detailed explanation of the technical challenges F1 teams face this year.
Edited extra bit: on a serious note, I would advocate backing Massa and Bottas (latter still at 65) for the title. Williams look reliable, and that could get them many points early on, allowing for handy hedging during the fly-away period.
The following are all NATO members and former satellites of the USSR :
Bulgaria .. Rumania .. Slovakia .. Czech Republic .. Poland .. Lithuania .. Latvia .. Estonia
Clarke screaming obscenities at Steyn, Steyn giving it back, Umpires and 12th men separating them... enthralling stuff!
http://www.brentwoodweeklynews.co.uk/news/11001731.Eric_Pickles_will_stand_for_election_again_in_2015/
Putin is sitting in Moscow openly laughing at the West and its frantic rattling of empty sabre scabbards.
To understand why you just have to look at how inter-related the Ukrainian economy is with the Russian Federation:
Overall, between one third and one half of Ukraine’s trade is with the Russian Federation.
Dependence is particularly strong in energy. Up to 70-75% of annually consumed gas and close to 80% of oil comes from Russia. At present the Ukraine are in arrears by $1.5 billion on their gas bills to Russia and from April onwards will no longer enjoy the 33% discount on world prices previously offered.
If the Ukraine fail to pay, Gazprom has said it will cut off supplies. The only option the Ukraine will have is to persuade the international community to pick up the tab.
On the export side, too, dependence is significant.
Russia remains Ukraine’s primary market for ferrous metals, steel plate and pipes, electric machinery, machine tools and equipment, food, and products of chemical industry. It has been a market of hope for Ukraine’s high value-added goods, more than nine tenths of which were historically tied to the Russian consumer.
Ukraine experienced, by the start of the noughties, a 97-99% drop in production of industrial machines and consumer electronics which never competed with similar goods manufactured in Asia and the West. This meant their traditional industrial manufacturers of digital control systems, television sets, tape recorders, excavators, cars and trucks industries all failed.
Nearly one in five people living in the Ukraine are Russian and they form majorities in the all the main industrial and mineral extraction regions of the South and East.
Putin has already made clear (in the 2008 NATO-Russia summit in Bucharest) that if the Ukraine were to attempt to join NATO he would annex the Ukrainian East, South and Crimea. This is not a new policy but has been consistently held and stated by Russia throughout all discussions between the major powers.
Anyone with an ounce of common sense would see that the economic regeneration of The Ukraine requires all of the US, EU and Russia to co-operate and agree before any form of 'Marshall plan' can be implemented.
A bunch of well-meaning democrats in Kiev (or 'neo-Fasciist thugs financed by robber oligarchs', whichever way you want to see them) playing off the EU and US against Russia is doomed to failure.
And it is the western taxpayers not the Russian who will pay the price for such folly.
It is time to stop fighting cold war battles and to release the Ukraine from being torn apart in an unseemly dog-like tug-of-war. This is not a battle for control of the Ukraine. It is an opportunity for the world to benefit through a co-operation which recognises and protects the geo-political interests of all parties.
http://www.stroudnewsandjournal.co.uk/news/10995406.UKIP_elects_prospective_parliamentary_candidate_for_Stroud/?ref=rss
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO#Membership_Action_Plan
"Ukraine had expressed interest in receiving a MAP before June 2010, when it announced a policy change of not seeking NATO membership."
http://thelincolnite.co.uk/2014/02/lib-dems-select-local-nurse-lincoln-mp-candidate/
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2014/02/11/king-arthur-sets-up-his-own-political-party
Not in their interest for this to go on indefinitely...
"I've stood in the last four general elections myself. I've managed to embarrass three national parties into last place and also embarrass myself into last place."
His interest in Stonehenge suggests he's a little chronologically challenged ... and I don't think our classicists would agree with him when he says of his party -
"It's rather like the idea of the Greek and Roman Senate, where senators represented regions."
"But he won Crimea !" - meh..
Bring back Trajan!
If it would help to resolve the present unpleasantness, I'd be willing to ease tensions by posting a detailed explanation of the technical challenges F1 teams face this year."
Aaaargh, no! Not the 1,000 words on differential front-end grip. Please no! Anything but that. I will never write anything nasty about anyone ever again, honest, I promise. I won't even think, "Tsh, what a knob" when I read the lunacies posted by one or two regular denizens of the site. Anything you like but not the differential front-end grip essay, please.
Comrade Sunilsky.
It matters little (at this stage) whether the allegations are true or false.
What is of current interest is that the claims come from the mouth of the Estonian President.
And Estonia is the poster child of post Soviet economic regeneration and the country which, if we accept the views posted by some on PB, has the most to fear from Russian military imperialism.
We need to grasp this golden opportunity. We need to give Ukraine a clear path to EU membership, a clear path to NATO membership and some cold hard cash to assist them.
While we're about it, we might take a look at what we can do to help Moldova too.
http://www.bexhillobserver.net/news/local/vips-at-ukip-bexhill-dinner-1-5903821
Amber Valley: Kate Smith.
http://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/Political-parties-pick-candidates-Amber-Valley/story-20617983-detail/story.html
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton: Francis Oppler.
http://www.littlehamptongazette.co.uk/news/local/lib-dems-confirm-mp-candidate-for-littlehampton-and-bognor-regis-1-5870229
The countries of NATO faced with an attack on one of their eastern members by, say, Russia may well respond fully in accordance with Article 5 by complaining to the security council and, perhaps, by tabling a strongly worded resolution at the UN.
Unconfirmed reports indicate that this Labour party initiative is part of their plans to ensure the lights stay on should Ed Miliband's gas price moratorium policy see power cuts and candles all-round :
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-26451973
When deprived of sleep (which presumably he would be) humans start suffering mental and physiological symptoms. If taken to excess, such as in the thankfully rare fatal familial insomnia, people go permanently insane and then die.
If NATO is so defunct why has Russia before and now been so desperate to ensure countries, even smaller one, do not join ?
These countries have historically been part of Western Europe or under the control of Western empires. The Russo-Slavic states (Belarus, the Ukraine - maybe Moldova - and Kazakastan, sort of) have never been Western European, were under the direct yoke of the Soviet Union or Imperial Russia (or even the Ottomans going back further).
Anyone who has done business with or travelled to the two groups of countries (and I started doing business with them all in the mid 1980s) will have immediately recognised the difference even in communist times.
The future for the EU must at some stage involve an accommodation with the 'sixth continent' of Russia and its Russo-Slavic neighbours, but the way forward is not to shave the bits off Russia but to gradually tame and then embrace the bear.
Do we really want the cost and conflict of regenerating The Ukraine with Russia trying to frustrate every step? Germany found reunification a long and difficult meal and it is still experiencing mild indigestion. Absorbing The Ukraine would be a meal too far for Sgr. Creosote!
Co-operation not confrontation is the way forward.
http://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/yourtown/oxford/11050153.Positive_spin_from_the_man_aiming_to_unseat_MP_Smith/
It's worth remembering that there has been an extraordinary difference in the economic performance of those bits of Russia that became attached to the EU, and those that remained in the Russian orbit.
So, GDP per head:
Estonia $16,000
Latvia $14,000
Lithuania $14,000
Belarus $7,000
Ukraine $4,000
Georgia $3,500
Can you blame people in Ukraine for wanting to emulate the Estonians?
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/norman_lamb_picked_by_liberal_democrats_to_stand_for_north_norfolk_in_2015_general_election_1_3378267?usurv=skip
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26455655
Estonia had the highest GDP per capita in communist times.
And the top three all benefit in the GDP per capita measures by having fewer capita.
Think it through, Jack, lets us just suppose that Russia takes over Ukraine. Then in a couple of years they decide to go for Poland - what military force would the UK able to commit to the defence of Poland? And we are one of the strongest military nations in the alliance. And that assumes there would be the political will to go to war in the first place.
NATO is a busted flush, it should have been wound up twenty years ago. Nowadays its just a paper tiger, whose only purpose is to give a pretence to the gullible that there a system of defence.
"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security."
In an appropriate case it would be incontrovertible that the only possible response is the use of armed force. Such a case would arise if Russia behaved as it has behaved in Ukraine and declined an invitation to withdraw its troops.
Greece is definitely broke; Portugal is probably broke.
Italy and France might well be broke in the future, but aren't right now.
Spain and Ireland were broke, but are probably not broke anymore.
Germany is not broke. We are not broke. The Netherlands is not broke. Austria is not broke. Nor are Finland, Denmark, or Sweden.
€11bn is less than 0.1% of Eurozone GDP, and probably about 0.05% of EU GDP. And it is proposed that it will be over four years. So, really we're talking about 0.01% of EU GDP a year.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/tv-radio/david-dimbleby-wins-the-2015-general-election--after-a-recount-9142368.html
For most NATO members the options boil down to choosing whether or not to be cheer-leaders for the US.
I immediately thought that it was Xinjiang seperatists - a point confirmed by the news reports. Quite sad - terrorism is a problem all over the world.
http://www.suttonguardian.co.uk/news/11052064.Cancer_expert_to_stand_as_UKIP_MP_candidate_in_Sutton_and_Cheam/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0
A sad indictment of the human mind.
Russia can pay cash.
http://youtu.be/5m1jJ6gmo2Y
Here are some camo bikinis:
https://encrypted.google.com/search?tbm=isch&q=camouflage bikinis&tbs=imgo:1
Russian Foreign Ministry has published a batch of documents of the Soviet People’s Commissariat of the Interior (NKVD) dating back to the years from 1942 through to 1945 and related to the operations of far-right Ukrainian nationalist paramilitaries during World War II.
The documents contain the eyewitnesses’ reports speaking about cooperation of members of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army and the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN/UIA) with the Nazis, as well as their involvement in mass purges of the population.
A long article on ITAR-TASS. Quoting classified NKVD reports, this section gives a flavour:
"People of different nationalities became victims of nationalists. In particular, an agent report from the area of Rivne dated August 4, 1943, tells about a mass execution of Poles. “An agent of the NUD group that returned from the mountains of Vladimir-Volynsk, reported that July 18, 1943, he became witness to a mass execution of Polish population of Vladimir-Volynsk carried out by Ukrainian nationalists – Banderovites. During service in catholic churches, the Banderovites killed 11 Roman Catholic priests and up to 2000 Poles on the town’s streets. The German garrison, police and Cossacks numbering 600 people did not take any measures against the execution of Poles, and only after that the German command hung out a notice urging Poles to enroll in the gendarmerie to fight against Banderovites. Many Poles for fear of repressions went to serve for the Germans."
It is the confirmation of long suspected but denied war crimes which will open up wounds which have been slowly healing for decades.
Very nasty.
Nope, that is your judgement not a fact. Another person might decide that "such action as it deems necessary" is a sharp diplomatic note. The NATO treaty does not require all members to go to war against the aggressor if one of them is attacked. Furthermore I would be amazed if any of them did.
NATO was set-up for a particular set of circumstances that are now long past. Its attempt to expand have been successful on paper but its attempt to find another role (e.g. out of area operations such as Afghanistan) have been a spectacular failure.
Some years ago all the members of NATO agreed to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence. How many have abided by that agreement?
Average GDP per capita of ex-communist countries who stayed in Russia's orbit $4,000
Now I know you're not a fan of the EU, but if you were sitting in Kiev, with whom would you like to align yourself with?
I was changing planes at Dubai airport a few days ago and it was a rather disappointing experience: passengers had to get out of the plane the old-fashioned way, wait around on the tarmac, and then board buses.
It was okay at 7am in February (about 18 degrees) but I wouldn't like to do it at 2pm in August when temperatures might be well over 40 degrees.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ukrainian_salary_map.png
What is the underlying story here?
My eyes have been too focused on Eastern Europe.
Emirates from BHX. There was a jet bridge (apparently that's the correct term) on the return journey.