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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So Farage against Clegg is going to be on TV – My predictio
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So Farage against Clegg is going to be on TV – My prediction: Both will be the winner
It’s good news for all who want a high turnout in the May Euro elections that the Farage versus Clegg national TV debate is actually on. The BBC will be staging it on BBC 2. It will last an hour.
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The really losers are Dave, and possibly Ed.
Although Ed won't really mind an hour of TV where Farage is kicking lumps out of Dave, and Dave's not there to respond.
For everyone else it will be a freak show.
The BBC have said
The audience will ask Clegg/Farage questions and the BBC says reputable polling firm will choose audience
But when a country is not generating surpluses on its current budget it can also be called "borrowing". And the costs involved in servicing such borrowing can be called "current expenditure".
Existing spending and investment plans will see annual debt servicing costs rise to £75 billion per annum by 2017 just to fund our existing debt. That is around 70% of the amount the UK spends on Health per year and nearly twice what we spend on defence.
Additional infrastructure funding over and above what is already planned will require unsustainable increases in debt which will not only increase our debt servicing costs pro rata but will also increase the amount we pay on all debt, due the markets increasing premia on interest rates in line with the increased risk posed by higher levels of borrowing.
So until the UK starts generating surpluses on its current account, there is little option for it to radically increase infrastructure investment. This is why the current government is seeking external finance from foreign currency suplus holding countries for major projects in the UK: the deal with China on nuclear power being a key example. Even once surpluses are generated they will have to be split between debt reduction and increased investment to keep borrowing costs within manageable limits.
Of course, none of this is understood by the children of Brown, who were brought up to believe that current spending and investment were equivalent.
I think that is wrong. Under the OFCOM guidelines, in particular the rule that they will look at performance in real elections of the appropriate type over two electoral cycles, UKIP is undoubtedly a 'major party' for EU election purposes, but is undoubtedly not a 'major party' for general election purposes.
One can quibble with whether those guidelines are set correctly, but they are what they are, and they're not going to change before 2015 (and probably not after that).
OT - Putin has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Who said satire was dead!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2573633/Rihanna-covers-jeans-jumper-sharing-risqu-picture-aide-checking-suspenders.html
It refers to his nomination for the 2013 Peace Prize and not a response to the current situation in the Ukraine.
Still the headline is blazoned across ITAR-TASS's home page!
I thought 'that's a bit strong from Farage.' Until I read the article and realised this had been said by.....er.......David Lammy.....(presumably now the member for Bucharest West).
"The brightening outlook has prompted firms to take on staff at a rate not seen before over the PMI surveys' 16-history," said Markit's chief economist Chris Williamson. "The survey is signalling a private employment rise of approximately 150,000 in the first quarter."
http://uk.advfn.com/news/DJN/2014/article/61326113
Labour on TV elex debates - "We have made clear we are ready to sign up to three-way debates as we had at the last election."
FPT ...
"Are you open to persuasion on this point?"
I am. There are a lot of things we could do better. I've only worked with NDEs so I'd never defend cosmetic testing. As profit is the motive, as for any industry, there tends to be too many me-too drugs and a concentration on common illnesses.
But the industry is always ultra-sensitive about details for commercial reasons and very worried about access. Having spent the eighties being advised to check the underside of my car for explosives, you can understand why. It may be an offence to disclose details but that's no help if your grannie has been dug up.
Yes, it can be improved and oversight is needed. The EU and its directives helped to expand the number of animals used.
The problem with using animals for basic research is that you can never be sure that basic research will lead to a breakthrough. It could do, it may not do. We can point to many cases where it did and many where it did no good at all.
The old-fashioned trust the doctor, he knows best, has gone for ever. But it's where we draw the line that is the problem.
I know I'm teaching Granny Palmer to suck eggs here and I fear we'll be boring the others, but it's pleasant to be able to have this debate without rancour.
The third of three start of the month CIPS/Markit PMIs was published this morning. We have had manufacturing (up) and construction (down but still above 60): today's was the all important Services PMI.
Nothing much to report here though except continued strong growth, confidence, employment and orders. The PMI came in almost unchanged from January at 58.2 (down 0.1).
Significant that respondents were reporting lower inflationary expectations and pressures.
Q1 2014 is beginning to look good with a stronger end to the fiscal year than forecast by the OBR in December.
Onward and upward, George!
I'm pleased the Farage/Clegg debate is happening and undoubtedly the partisans on both sides will micro-analyse every word on here when it happens.
Will it change many sides ? Perhaps, perhaps not but it will be good for an informed debate to take place and both Nick and Nigel will, I suspect, quite enjoy it.
As OGH suggests, it probably won't do either the LDs or UKIP much harm and it will cement the idea that both represent a clear policy with regard to the EU.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEgJ0oo3OA8
As Mike's last article points out, numbers do not matter. The polls are showing that Tthe tories trying to do a lap of honour on economic success will not win them the next election, or even make them the largest party.
Voters will need to see the results in their pockets.
Weren't you reading the last thread? The polls are showing that, so far, good economic news is just wall paper to the electorate.
The pessimistic scenario for Con is the opposite: The voters get that the economy is recovering, but they either don't care, don't credit the government for it or, worst of all, credit the government for it but consider the job done, and are ready to put Labour back in until next time they think the economy needs some work...
The real question will be "do you want a change of government?" and "are you ready to take on the risks of the economy being managed by those who trashed it in 2005-10?".
GE polling hasn't yet moved into the same phase as, say, SIndy polling, where voters are now being forced to make decisions on the basis of hard alternatives rather than vague dreams.
When it does we will see the current Labour lead evaporate, but it won't be gratitude or admiration that erases it.
Its also more than likely a highly illegal action to tap phones of a foreign Gov't.
I also note the shooting victims have been juxtaposed against the audio to create an emotional effect.
But more importantly than all of the above is that the truth to this tale increasingly appears to be that it is not simply "Vlad the Bad" versus the forces of light and good from the EU - there is a complex web of forces at work here. And these shootings have not really been focussed on by western media so much as the 'Big bad Russia' angle.
Tin foil hat time ?
Maybe.
You're thinking of this debate in terms of politics and assuming nobody will tune in. I disagree. Most will think of it in terms of entertainment. They'll tune in in to see Mr Pompous-Eurotwat and Mr EU-Whatabunchofwankers having a bitchfight live on telly. I suspect it will be hugely entertaining viewing. I'm secretly hoping Farage will tear Clegg to ribbons - although I suspect he won't succeed.
Farage's Euro Parliament verbal onslaughts garner massive Youtube audiences for a reason. He's very very engaging. It will be fun. Alot more fun than Strictly or X-Factor!
The basic issue is that the industry sees disclosure as a nuisance (like almost everyone affected by FOIA) - likely to lead to more debate about whether what they do should be allowed, more form-filling, who needs it? But serious critics like us are frustrated that we're not allowed basic information on what is being done on any terms - anonymity, time delay, whatever - so we could have a proper public discussion. We think we'd win some of the arguments. No doubt we'd lose some too. But scientists, more than anyone, shouldn't be so reluctant to discuss the facts. And given that reluctance, they shouldn't pretend we have a transparent system, when we quite explicitly and as a matter of policy do not.
Another item to throw into the discussion of basic research. The official study on primate research a year or two back found that for 9% of experiments, the researchers were unable to suggest ANY way that the research might conceivably be of benefit to humans, ever. They just thought the research was interesting. I doubt if there is public consent for painful primate research that can't conceivably benefit humans, and at the least the specific experiments should be up for public discussion.
Without doubt it's starting to be picked up in polling but so far in things like the economy falling as a priority when listings topical concerns, or views on how the economy will fare going forward etc.
That's all MACRO, the voters need MICRO....
I'll be buying this meme of OGH but not until the Autumn Statement and if still the case then in the polls.
For myself in relation to the primal days of PB I reflect that I'm still here posting, a fact that twice now had seemed unlikely as the fat lady cleared her throat off stage in preparation for an oratorical special before I popped permanently into the welcoming arms of them folks downstairs/upstairs.
I thought the plan was to move it online?
All the Tory EU referendum posturing is hiding the lack of policy. What renegotiation are they really after? Are they in or out if they don't get it? Why do we talk tough at home and then go on foreign visits making it easier for people to come here.
Labour are (understandably) keeping quiet on Europe.
So I wonder if we'll see some bromance between Nick and Nigel about how they are the only parties with clear policies on Europe. Voting for the others is an active "don't know" etc. If so, and they tag team the absent Cam / Mili, they could both come off very well indeed at the expense of the big 2.
Beforehand, they allowed Ukrainian servicemen to remove four MI-8 helicopters and three planes and fly them to Mykolaiv in mainland Ukraine.
Russian forces also seized two Ukrainian missile defence battalions in the Crimea region, Russia's Interfax news agency quoted a military source as saying."
http://news.sky.com/story/1221142/ukraine-police-clear-pro-russia-protesters
Should be interesting
Unconfirmed reports indicate he may use the SNP Independence prospectus for material and in doing so will have much material to spare :
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-26432299
I don't care if no-one watches it or if it doesn't change a single mind. I simply think that it is good that this issue will be properly debated.
It will also - tangentially - be good for both Nige and Nick.
The Russian Central Election Commission may provide organizational assistance to hold a referendum in Crimea, CEC secretary Nikolai Konkin told Itar-Tass, making it clear there should be an official invitation.
"In case there is an invitation, we will consider it," Konkin said.
A decision on such assistance is CEC head Vladimir Churov's prerogative, he noted.
A referendum on a status and powers of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is planned for March 30.
It is easy to fail to look beyond the threat of tank barrels to see just how helpful Putin is prepared to be in advancing civil progress.
F1: Speaking to Sky, Button put Mercedes and Williams as the top two teams. Williams seem to be the most reliable, and the other day I put tiny sums on Massa and Bottas at 40 and 65 to win the title.
If one or both get podiums in Australia the odds should tumble (especially if Mercedes has one or two reliability failures).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xO5SH-ywQc
http://www.somersetcountygazette.co.uk/news/taunton_news/11050786.Laura_Bailhache_chosen_to_stand_for_UKIP_at_General_Election_in_Taunton_Deane/
The seat now has a full line-up from the 5 main parties:
Con: Rebecca Pow
Lab: Neil Guild
LD: Jeremy Browne
UKIP: Laura Bailhache
Green: Clive Martin
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/f1-2014-second-and-third-tests.html
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/03/the-bbcs-immigration-scare-story/
BBC Three to become online-only channel available through iPlayer - announcement due tomorrow, BBC News has learned http://bbc.in/MNfODe
urgh..that phrase 'the BBC has learned'
No..it means you just read it off other press reports...
Have you checked its insignia?
It is more likely to come from the Autonomous Republic of Alaska.
http://rt.com/news/ashton-maidan-snipers-estonia-946/
Were snipers set up by the Ukrainian protesters to fire on their own supporters?
Seems farfetched, but not when large groups of neo fascists are supporting the new Ukrainian grouping now in power in Kiev.
Anyway, this definitely is a Russian "Bear"!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ou87i6Oq5M0
And who knew the Russian security services have got pretty much all the phones in Europe bugged?
We have given bans temporary and permanent to posters who has threatened/wished violence/death on other posters.
That sort of comment up thread is not acceptable.
No more.
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/264401-scottish-conservatives-choose-john-lamont-to-fight-seat-in-borders/
Dell charging over £16.... TO INSTALL FIREFOX
"Firefox takes about 10 minutes to install for anyone with even the most basic computing knowledge, meaning that Dell is charging more than £100 an hour to load a computer with the free and open-source software."
Of course, but firstly Russia already had the basing rights in the Crimea that it needed for its military strategy and secondly Russia's broader desire is for greater geopolitical power not just military. In loosing most of its influence in Ukraine to the West that power has decreased. Essentially it has won a battle but lost a war and their seizure of Crimea is a sign of weakness rather than strength.
It also seems to have forced them to reveal their extensive bugging of European phones which will take the sting out of the NSA revelations they were so effectively managing.
You are butch.
The rulings with this "new" guy really are something else. He is a troll and you just let it go
I emailed you privately on the subject and no reply. Incredible really
I'm not sure wishing someone dead can be categorised as handbags but still. I merely asked what on earth I have done to Isam to make him hate me so much? It's quite extraordinary, and depressing.
Wonder if he is eyeing up Brezhnev's 18 year tenure... he is in good health for a 61 year old man and could yet break Stalin's record.