Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
Indeed.
I have no idea of MoonRabbit’s gender so it was the safest option.
One of the problems with this site is people spending too long sitting on it and posting, usually irascibly, for no good purpose.
It would be a much better site if we had a one month moratorium on a maximum of three posts per day per person. Then people might think first and only add something when it’s useful.
What the guys who make it to Ireland need to do is claim asylum *from the UK* on the basis that the Rwanda plan amounts to persecution - serious, targeted mistreatment of an individual because of their identity under one or more of the following specific grounds: race. religion. nationality - in its own right. This automatically blocks any attempt to ship them back here as refoulement.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
The amount of Tory ramping on here at the moment does make one question the saliency of the polls. Are they reading the mood more appropriately than the polling would suggest they should?
I've always had the General Election as close and the boundaries, the voter suppression, the imported voters, the media narrative and the arithmetic could favour the Tories, but I may have to add to that the general idea that those who vote are rather content with the status quo. Perhaps we get an idea if they are right or not on Thursday. Anything under 300 council seat losses , Street and Houchen winning and Hall running Khan close will be a very good night for Sunak.
Stands Scotland where it did? Alas, poor country almost afraid to know itself.
The second line adds much needed context to the first.
If you want context, there are those who believe every single Reform vote will head to the Conservatives at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder. A more realistic aim might be the 23% of 2019 Conservative voters who now back Reform - with the 2019 Conservative at 45%, 23% of that would be just over 10% of the entire electorate so you could see the Conservative vote share at 33% with Reform down to 3%.
The actual polling of Reform voters has suggested only a third would support the Conservatives absent a Reform candidate so that would push the Conservatives to the mid to upper 20s on tonight's polling.
In the 2021 PCC elections, the Conservatives led 44.5%-30% and won 30 with Labour winning 8.
On a straight 16% swing from Conservative to Labour, the Conservatives would hold just four. Turnout in 2021 was 34% - will be it any better on Thursday?
If you are referring to me, please use my name as the antagonist. I’m more than happy to debate this.
The polling breakdown of REF support you quoted is meaningless. Pollsters don’t predict, they just give you a snapshot. Not even MRP are prediction, just research that’s dating badly the moment it’s published.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when faced with a real choice. Pollsters have been feeding voters a smorgasbord of options that’s not avaivailble at the general election, unless you wish to waste your time and effort voting. First past the post ensures only Conservative or Labour wins the General Election, voters pick either Starmer or Sunak as Prime Minister - outside of that it’s Libdem to battle in 25 to 45 constituencies, Greens fighting in 2, every vote elsewhere voters will know its waste of time filling in the form, as it doesn’t count in the real election. First past the post creates this different forced choice election.
Whatever polls have been telling you, please remember they are not predictive, the minds of voters can move very quickly when the narrative changes - shift in just the 4 weeks of an election in defiance of real local elections votes mere weeks before. A July 4th election will be set against inflation under 2%, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth, and BOE announced interest rate cut and mortgage lenders responding - the credit crunch and Truss budget will be from a different time and place, years ago. Also thousands of Asylum Seekers have been rounded up into detention and planes taking off deporting them to Africa, with Ireland and the EU bleeting deterrents like this are just not playing fair, as they are now getting the immigrants once set on Britain.
Those are just the known knowns, relentlessly across media that will reshape the narrative in the six weeks till polling day. What’s unknown knowns is what dirt will be thrown at Labour front bench. Fact is, just footage of Starmer at a window holding a beer, reduced a 10 point labour lead down to just 4 points when relentlessly thrown at him daily in a campaign month two years ago. The unknown unknowns I ask you to consider, is impact on polls of Nigel Farage invited to join the Conservative Party, and stand for them as a Conservative candidate.
Secondly, I thank you Stodge for your fine headers on the Local Elections, where you have given us what to watch to calibrate what is good middling and bad night for each party. But what PNS and NEV will show us Labour underperforming the polling, what share figure shows them underperforming against the westminster polling, but still on cusp of a parliamentary majority? I found a NEV of 12% is the least Labour need to get this week to form a majority government - and even that figure is way beneath the swings in the polling. How do you understand it?
Local elections are not national elections. There is considerable polling evidence that the Cons nationally are remarkably more unpopular than local conservatives. There is a reason so many candidates choose to identify themselves as just that, 'Local Conservatives'. There is a reason Mayoral candidates have been distancing themselves from the dreaded C-word, even with the local branding.
Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one. Remember when the story broke and when the 'campaign' ended. Any impact was minimal at best. It was also something of a one-shot pistol. An aspect of the failure of the Rayner allegations to move the polls is that Currygate turned out to be, how should we say this, a load of bollocks.
Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE. Well, probably. However, not inevitably. I think Lab will have to make a major mistake and that is not impossible. However, to assume it will happen is to seriously under-estimate Starmer. He does not have to be brilliant he just has to be better than his opponent and at the moment that opponent seems very likely to be Mr Rishi Sunak.
Think on that - have you seen any evidence that Mr Sunak can maintain a credible election campaign? Can you imagine him facing a 'job interview' style grilling from a serious journalist? Can you imagine him in a debate with Starmer? To have a chance of closing the gap to any meaningful degree he willl have to do all of those and do them well.
In my many GEs I have only ever voted Lab once. I am no fan-boy for Starmer. However, their (not so) secret weapons are going to be front and centre throughout the GE campaign whenever it comes. Their names - Mr Rishi Sunak and the truly pathetic record of the current Govt.
We can all hope for miracles but they hardly ever come.
“Currygate closed the polls? You might like to check the figures on that one.” The evidence absolutely supports me on that one. Go look, just 4% gap when it came to polling day. It actually worked. By the end of the campaign Labour couldn’t get its message across for being asked by every media outfit about beergate.
“Meanwhile we can assume the polls will narrow in the run in to the GE.” I am arguing they will close to just a 5 point gap without any swingback from Lab to Con, just reuniting of the centre right bloc.
Sunak is a drag on Tory polling, though maybe not ultimately huge drag on votes as you assume. Sunak and Hunt will be thought of differently than last year, last month, last week and next week after a 6 week campaign built upon inflation under 2%, BOE interest rate cut, economy out of recession with strong 2024 growth. The fact Labour have called the Rwanda policy so badly only accelerates that Ref to Con campaign period swingback.
You don’t understand do you? Just watch. watch it happen just like this.
You've come back madder than ever MarchMoonHare!
Up the Tories!
I thought they were spoofing the other day and I’m still not sure. No one can be reading the mood of the nation this badly can they?
Moonrabbit is one person
Why do you insist on misnumbering her?
I know you’re trying to make an amusing point but I personally find this a bit tricky.
How should I refer to a poster whose gender I am not sure of? How for example should I e refer to you in the 3rd person?
(Really enjoying your Spanish trek blog btw - keep those posts coming!)
Given that she's the One Who Lost To Hamza Yousaf, wouldn't the omens for her ascension be pretty poor?
Not a fan, as I oppose her central, independence, policy, but I think she has colossal potential to be a very good leader. She only just lost to Yousef (52/48) which, given the flak she gets for her unfashionable views on 'personal conscience' matters, was pretty good.
Ask the question: Who do the Labour and Conservative parties want and not want? I think they both don't want Forbes.
Ask the question: Who would you have if you want a really broad cross section of Scots to take independence seriously? For that I think she is in the frame.
She didn't lose to Yousaf, she lost to Nicola and her husband and their iron grip on the party at that time. That grip is now gone.
Like you I fundamentally oppose the independence policy but I still rate her highly. She seems competent in a sort of old fashioned way that we haven't seen for a while. I'd like to try competence, after all we have tried everything else.
Her problem is that she has made it crystal clear that she has absolutely no time for the Greens and it is mutual. What these last few days have shown is that in this Parliament at least you cannot have a stable government without them. Unless you can get one of the Unionist parties to play and I don't see how she sells that to her party. The Greens at least pretend to be for independence.
Forbes and the Greens will come to an understanding if both decide they need each other.
If Forbes is as smart as you say she is she won't repeat precisely the same unforced error that brought Yousaf down literally hours ago. The Greens are in a powerful position and can name their price. That looks like a basis for a deal.
Their price is a leader that they think that they can work with. That's not Yousaf but its not Forbes either. She is about as far from their position on transgender issues as it is possible to get. When she took maternity leave as Finance Minister she made it clear that no Green was to have a role in the department. She seriously (understandably given her constituency) disagrees with their positions of the dualling of the A9 and the A96. (As someone who struggled up the A9 this morning stuck behind trails of lorries at 50 I am with her on that 100%). She is not sceptical about climate change (AIUI) but like Sunak is very concerned about its implications for growth and jobs. She is concerned about the investment implications of Scotland being the highest taxed part of the UK. There is very little that they could agree on.
To be honest, its one of the reasons I like her.
The Greens don't choose the SNP leader and FM, the SNP does that. The scenario we are discussing is the SNP has chosen Forbes. The Greens now have a choice to do a deal with Forbes while parliamentary arithmetic favours them or VoNC at any time, which would force an election where they stand to win seats and the SNP lose them. In this way they destroy her government. This is precisely the equation Yousaf didn't think through when he dumped the Greens a couple of days ago. Where is he now?
I am honestly not sure whether we are agreeing or disagreeing. I think Forbes is by far the best candidate but I do not think that the SNP can choose her at the present time for exactly the same reasons as Yousaf fell today. The price of stable government is compatibility with the Greens. Nicola has been shown to be right about that. I don't believe that is a price that Forbes can pay. I don't believe that the Greens would believe she would pay it even if she offered it. They are just miles apart.
This is not the Greens choosing the SNP leadership, it is much more the SNP having to choose someone who can work with their only natural partner given the extremely balanced situation in Holyrood.
James Kelly seems to think she'd be able to buy off the Tories.
James KellyApril 29, 2024 at 1:57 PM I don't agree with that. I think Kate Forbes would find a way of staving off an election. Remember an election isn't in the Tories' interests, so if she can give them some sort of way off the hook, they might well take it. And presumably she'd have the backing of Ash Regan.
Can't see SNP MSPs or the Tories going for this mind. A lot has changed since 2007.
I agree with the last bit. Salmond was able to come to understandings with the Tories but he had a very different SNP to that that Nicola left behind. Salmond was much more focused on independence than creating a socialist utopia through devolved powers. That focus made him interested in how the Scottish economy actually fared in the real world, a focus Forbes shares. I was honestly surprised that Forbes got 48% of the vote the last time.
Now, I suspect that Forbes would lose at least as many votes to the left as she gained to the right with such manoeuvres. Our politics are far more polarised and not for the better. I fear Forbes has as much chance of leading the current SNP as Ken Clarke did the Tories.
No. The bottom line is the Tories should never have got into bed with the independence seeking nationalists in the first place, even if the rest of the policy was no different than their own thinking (which it wasn’t).
In Salmond and Sturgeon it’s the Tory Party recreated oddjob and oddbod from carry on screaming, like Frankenstein created a monster.
Now who’s Frying Tonight?
they never were in bed, yet another Scotch Expert. They horse traded to get some Tory policies introduced, nothing more. The knowledge on Scotland on PB is utterly pathetic.
7000 have already gone to Ireland. It's already working.
How many boats has it stopped?
Oh...
How many planes have taken off?
Oh...
Assuming Sunak manages to get a few dozen planes to Rwanda through the summer, do you think that will affect the boat numbers?
How will the policy look if by the election the 2024 boat numbers are mirroring 2022?
Yes, I think if planes are taking off then it would stop the boats and thus stop the drownings at sea at the hands of people smugglers.
Currently its not much of a deterrent as there's no real expectation for a plane to actually take off.
Personally, I'm pretty sure a plane will take off, but we shall see.
If the prospect of drowning isn't a deterrent the chance of being flown to Rwanda certainly won't be.
Possibly with no-one on it.
The first scheduled flight will kick the entire 3rd sector into gear as they look to launch every legal appeal possible to haul each and every individual off the flight.
be a flock of ambulance chasers for sure , and most paid by government funded charities.
No Relocated Individual (even if they do not make an application for asylum or humanitarian protection or whatever the outcome of their applications) shall be removed from Rwanda except to the United Kingdom in accordance with Article 11(1). The Parties shall cooperate to agree an effective system for ensuring that removal contrary to this obligation does not occur, which includes systems (with the consent of the Relocated Individual as appropriate) for returns to the United Kingdom and locating, and regularly monitoring the location of, the Relocated Individual.
Article 11 is about the process to return going in some detail into how deportees can make legal applications for return.
Comments
I have no idea of MoonRabbit’s gender so it was the safest option.
One of the problems with this site is people spending too long sitting on it and posting, usually irascibly, for no good purpose.
It would be a much better site if we had a one month moratorium on a maximum of three posts per day per person. Then people might think first and only add something when it’s useful.
p.s. I’ve already exceeded my limit
I've always had the General Election as close and the boundaries, the voter suppression, the imported voters, the media narrative and the arithmetic could favour the Tories, but I may have to add to that the general idea that those who vote are rather content with the status quo. Perhaps we get an idea if they are right or not on Thursday. Anything under 300 council seat losses , Street and Houchen winning and Hall running Khan close will be a very good night for Sunak.
The knowledge on Scotland on PB is utterly pathetic.
NEW THREAD
Presumably when they return hare sent back to the UK they can be held in detention pending removal from this country?
So effectively Rwanda reduces the risk of them absconding during the review process